Kuzul

Coming into the 2010 baseball season, there was no clearer choice than the St. Louis Cardinals as National League Central Division champs.

They had Albert Pujols, the best player in baseball, and possibly the best 3-4 combination in Pujols and Matt Holliday.

Their starting rotation, led by co-aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, was thought to be one of the best in baseball.

However, even after a win against Cincinnati on Friday night, the Cardinals trail the division leading Reds by seven games, and are looking more and more like a team struggling to stay in the Wild Card race, where they trail the Phillies by five games.

So how did such a promising season get to this point? Here are 10 reasons it’s gotten this way.

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St. Louis Cardinals fans, dust off your sirens, prepare your white flags, and clutch your shiny red buttons.

For the first time since 2003, it’s panic time.

After sweeping the Reds in Cincinnati to take a one game lead in the division and looking like prime pennant contenders in the National League, the Cardinals have been, well, terrible.

Against mediocre competition (their opponents over that span are a combined 355-443), St. Louis has gone 5-12, getting swept by Houston, and losing series to last place Washington and Pittsburgh, as well as the Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers.

Meanwhile, the Reds have beaten down on a weak schedule of their own, going 13-4 and taking a commanding eight game lead in the National League Central. St. Louis also trails Philadelphia by five games in the Wild Card race.

So how did it get this way, and who’s to blame?

The biggest blame can be placed on the offense. Since the Reds series, the Cardinals have averaged 4.2 runs, gone deep 0.9 times, and struck out 6.4 times per game. They have scored three runs or less in 10 of their 12 losses. They’ve made fourth and fifth starters look like aces. In fact, two of their wins came against former Cy Young winners Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum. However, they’ve been handled by John Lannan, J.A. Happ, Madison Bumgarner, and Dave Bush, among others.

The pitching, which has been shouldering the team most of the season, has snapped under all that weight. Staff ace Adam Wainwright has lost three straight starts for the first time in his career. Co-ace Chris Carpenter has been roughed up as well, losing his past two starts. The only bright spot on the staff has been Jaime Garcia, who has gone given up just five runs in his three starts since Cincinnati, going 2-1 over that span.

Maybe some of the blame can be placed on the front office. After all, they traded Ryan Ludwick in an effort to acquire Jake Westbrook, basically swapping a slugging outfielder for a starting pitcher, something they already have a plethora of. They traded a need for a luxury. In fact, this trade may be the root of the problem. Granted, Ludwick has cooled off considerably since moving to PetCo Park, a notorious pitchers’ haven. His average has dropped to .221, and he his OPS has dropped to .649, well below his .280/.350/.512 line from 2007-09 with the Cardinals. Conversely, Westbrook is 1-3 with a 4.03 ERA. However, his WHIP, H/9, BB/9, and HR/9 are all lower than they’ve ever been, while his strikeout rates are also career bests. While Westbrook has been good, he just hasn’t helped the Cardinals win.

The final piece to this trade is not a player who departed or arrived, but Jon Jay, who took over for Ludwick in right field. Since the trade, Jay has batted .266, with just one home run. Now that his abnormal .440+ BAbip has mellowed to .308 for the month, we have a truer sense of what type of player Jay is: a backup outfielder, one that the organization placed too much faith in by trading their regular starter because they though Jay could handle the job.

However, here’s the real kicker. In their 17 game slump, St. Louis has won games by three, four, nine, eight, and two runs. However, only one of their losses has been by more than three runs. That gives them a Pythagorean Win-Loss Record of 9-8 over that span, a far cry from their actual 5-12 record. All this shows us is that they’ve lost several close games.

In fact, they’ve left 7.6 runners on base each game, as opposed to a 7.1 number for the rest of the season (which includes the 20-inning game in which the Cardinals left 22 runners on). Here’s where it gets bad. Ryan Ludwick bats .389 with runners in scoring position, and .308 with two outs, and an amazing .429 with two outs and RISP. Jon Jay, by comparison, bats .356 with runners in scoring position. Jay also bats .189 with two strikes. The difference was never more visible than today, when Jay grounded out to the pitcher with the bases loaded to end the Cardinals’ scoring threat.

Can we say that Ludwick would’ve gotten a hit there? Not for sure. But with Ryan Ludwick, the Cardinals would not be leaving 7.6 men on base each game. Whether you blame the front office, the offense, Jay in particular, or Tony LaRussa, whose lack of a consistent lineup card and insistence to keep Colby Rasmus out of the lineup has infuriated Cardinals fans and writers, one thing is clear: if they don’t turn this around soon, they’ll be watching the playoffs from their couches.

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The NL West hasn’t gone the way most of the “experts” thought it would. The team leading the division, the San Diego Padres, was expected to be the bottom feeder, while the predicted leader, the Los Angeles Dodgers, sits in third place seven games back.

That sets up for a showdown in the bay area this coming weekend between the first place San Diego Padres and the second place San Francisco Giants who are just two and a half games back. The two teams have met eight times this season with the Padres coming out victorious in seven of those games.

Giants’ right-hander Jonathan Sanchez has already thrown down the gauntlet in a recent comment to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle saying, “We’re going to play San Diego, and we’re going to beat them three times. If we get to first place, we’re not going to look back.”

The only problem with the comment from Sanchez was the fact that he was confident in the first part then questionable in the second part. First, it was “we’re going to beat San Diego,” but then said “if we get to first place.” Why not go all the way and say “when we get to first place?”

When Shea asked Sanchez about the Giants losing seven of eight to the Padres so far this year Sanchez responded, “That was a long time ago. Doesn’t matter. We’ve got a better team now.” While he wasn’t quite as colorful as Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips calling the St. Louis Cardinals “little b******,” it still gives the weekend series a different feel than early on in the year.

Tale of the tape:

Pitching:

San Diego Padres – 3.26 ERA

San Francisco Giants – 3.44 ERA

Analysis: The San Diego Padres have been towards the top of the NL West all season long. Much to the chagrin of a lot of “experts” who picked them to finish last. The biggest reason for their success is their pitching staff. Not only their starters but also the guys out of the bullpen.

Adding Jon Garland, a veteran that knows what it takes to get to the World Series, was a good off season acquisition, but adding a young and talented right-hander in Mat Latos behind him makes for a solid one-two punch in the rotation. Not only have those two guys been getting it done but guys like left-hander Clayton Richard, right-hander Kevin Correia, and young left-hander Wade LeBlanc have stepped up at the right time to provide solid outings.

As for the Giants, they also boast one of the best rotations in baseball with guys like Tim Linecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez, not to mention Barry Zito, all of which have ERA’s below 3.60 with Matt Cain leading the way at 3.06.

The problem this team has had in years passed was the failure of their bullpen to hold a late inning lead. They seemed to have fixed that with guys like Brian Wilson (2.19), Sergio Romo (2.18), Javier Lopez (2.51), and Santiago Casilla (2.32). It give the starters confidence to turn the ball over to them when the game is on the line instead of worrying whether or not the lead would hold. 

Offense:

San Francisco Giants – .261 average

San Diego Padres – .250 average

Analysis: There’s no secret when it comes to the struggles of the San Diego Padres as far as scoring runs. Sometimes, pitchers can hold an opposing team to a single run and end up losing the game 1-0. General manager Jed Hoyer is hoping that the addition of both Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick will help some of those issues and give their pitchers more runs to work with.

Outside of those two, the Padres have been getting better than expected production from Jerry Hairston Jr. and as expected production from Adrian Gonzalez. However, having David Eckstein out of the lineup for an extended period has definitely hurt the team. They are hoping to have him back by this weekend.

As for the Giants, they have become a better offensive team but still lack that one big bat that general manager Brian Sabean really wanted. They attempted to acquire Adam Dunn from Washington as well as Corey Hart from Milwaukee but were unable to get a deal done for either player.

What they did get came from inside their own system. After trading away catcher Benji Molina, it gave them the opportunity to call up Buster Posey who has since surprised even the Giants with his performance. Posey played in just seven games for San Francisco in 2009, hitting .118 and striking out four times in 17 at bats. This season however, something must have clicked because the young catcher is hitting .345 with eight home runs and 42 runs batted in.

Padres will take the series if…

They can score early on the Giants’ starters. The longer they go, the stronger they seem to get. Get to their pitchers early and get into their bullpen.

They can go into the late innings with the lead and hand it to their bullpen.

Giants will take the series if…

They are patient and take pitches. The Padre pitchers will attempt to get ahead and early but wait them out and they will make a mistake.

Their pitchers can keep Ryan Ludwick from becoming a factor. His bat has started to heat up and that’s the last thing they want to see.

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Take a glance around the league and you will likely see most successful teams have a solid cleanup hitter penciled in behind the player batting third to prevent the four-finger salute.

Mark Teixeira enjoys the services of Alex Rodriguez. Albert Pujols has Matt Holiday. Chase Utley knows opposing teams would prefer him not be on base with Ryan Howard coming to the plate. 

In long search of a right-handed bat to protect All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez the Padres (65-46) hope to have found their power source and security blanket in Ryan Ludwick.

Ludwick, acquired from St. Louis in a three-team trade on July 31, hit his first two homers with San Diego Tuesday night, reaching 100 for his career and leading the Padres to a 4-1 victory against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

It was the best offensive showing from Ludwick in a San Diego uniform so far. 

In his first eight games, Ludwick was 5-for-28 and admitted he was putting pressure on himself to perform.

“I think anytime you come to a new team, you want to impress,” Ludwick told MLB.com. “You don’t want to mess anything up. They’ve had a good thing all year long. I’m just trying to fit in and be a good teammate.”

The win, coupled with the Giants loss to the Chicago Cubs, widened the Padres lead in the National League West to two and a half games over San Francisco as the division frontrunners gear up for a weekend showdown in San Francisco.

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A few weeks ago, Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports wrote an article that had a lot of the San Diego Padre fans up in arms. The day that article was released, I had one San Diego media member tell me, “I’d be upset if I actually knew who he was.” Ouch.

The article Morosi wrote was prior to the Padres’ series against the Atlanta Braves in late July. He was of the opinion that the Braves were going to be a playoff team while the Padres were going to fade right out of the playoff picture.

Since that article was released, the Padres are 8-6, hold a two game lead in the NL West, and currently hold the National League’s best record. As for the Atlanta Braves, they are 7-7 and they too hold a two-game lead in their division (NL East) over the Philadelphia Phillies. While a writer has his opinion, I have a lot of doubt that Mr. Morosi did a lot of research before filing that article, but he’s entitled to his opinion right? Just don’t expect me to agree with him.

I’m not going to spend my time bashing him for multiple reasons, though I will give you one reason: It’s really not worth my time.

What I will say is the Padres team that he said, so easily, would fade, has continued to hold on to their lead in the NL West and has played like contenders most of the year. Not to mention they have seven wins in eight tries against the second place Giants, putting them in a good position in head-to-head battles. They’ll need every bit of momentum as they begin a three-game series in San Francisco starting on August 13.

While they have the upper hand when it comes to their own division, it’s the rest of the National League that they will have to contend with come playoff time.

Bringing in Miguel Tejada from Baltimore hasn’t proved to be quite the move the Padres thought it was going to be, but adding Ryan Ludwick from St. Louis has definitely paid off. While Tejada is only batting .214 since coming over from the Orioles, Ludwick is batting .250 and has provided some protection to first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Since Ludwick’s acquisition, the Padres are averaging almost five runs per game (24 runs in five games).

Everyone wants to talk about the Padres offense and how they are one of the worst in baseball. While that is accurate, ranking 25th out of 30 teams, they more than make up for it with their pitching. Both in the rotation as well as out of the bullpen.

The Padres, as a team, have baseball’s best pitching staff with a combined 3.28 ERA. Right behind them are the Giants (3.41), Cardinals (3.45), Braves (3.56), and Rays (3.59), two of which (Giants, Rays) the Padres have winning records against this season.

Say what you want about them as a team offensively, but let’s not forget that they managed just one hit against Giants right-hander Jonathan Sanchez earlier this year and still won the game 1-0. In baseball, you don’t have to win pretty, you just have to win. There’s no BCS computer ranking strength of schedule, there are no Alabama against San Jose States on the schedule.

Out of the bullpen, the Padres are probably the strongest team in baseball when they have a lead in the late innings. They can bring out guys like Ryan Webb (3.05), Joe Thatcher (1.59), Luke Gregerson (2.38), or Ernesto Frieri, who’s yet to be scored on in nine relief appearances. Those four guys can get you right to closer Heath Bell (1.93 ERA, 31 saves) who’s about as automatic as they come.

The Padres don’t want to play the role of Cinderella looking for their missing glass slipper, but they will come into the playoffs with a chip on their shoulder the size of the Grand Canyon. They don’t mind being doubted; it’s been happening all season long, but when you have a team that is out to prove something, it makes them dangerous.

The only other time the Padres have been in a better position this far into the season was back in 1998. The same season they went to the World Series.

You can have the best hitters money can buy, but it’s been proven over the last 10 years that good pitching will overcome good hitting any day of the week. Ask the Yankees what happened when they met the Anaheim, now Los Angeles, Angels in the playoffs a few years ago.

They have the players in place, they have the pitching staff, and they have the motivation to go deep into the playoffs. Whether they go to the World Series or not will depend solely on putting everything together at the right time.

Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports wrote an article this past Wednesday with his playoff predictions. In it, Brown has the Padres facing the Cincinnati Reds in the first round of the National League Division Series. The other National League game would be between the Giants and Braves.

Assuming Brown is correct and things end the way he has them going, the Padres, with their big league leading 3.23 combined ERA, would be facing the Reds and their offense which ranks fourth in the majors. It’s a matchup that would prove to be a lot of fun to watch but would eventually end with the Padres moving on.

The next two teams facing off to play San Diego, San Francisco, and Atlanta are both favorable match-ups in a seven game series especially with the Padres having home field advantage.

The Padres are 7-1 against the Giants and 1-2 against Atlanta. They have the pitching to win either series, especially if they get 6’10” right-hander Chris Young back in time for the playoffs. Having him anchoring the rotation with Latos, Garland, Richard, and either Correia or LeBlanc, gives the Padres a decidedly strong advantage.

While the playoffs are still a few months away, it never hurts to look ahead and talk about what might happen. The San Diego Padres have the best record in the National League, and as long as that continues, they should be considered the favorites. Offense isn’t everything, they’ve proven that pitching and defense can keep them on track to their ultimate goal—a World Series championship.

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The St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, and Cleveland Indians got together on Saturday and made a nice three team trade that I believe benefited all three teams.

Let’s see what each team got in the trade…

Cardinals receive Jake Westbrook

With the uncertainty surrounding Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse, the Cardinals needed another starter to go along with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Westbrook fits exactly what the Cardinals needed to a tee.

Pitching coach Dave Duncan likes guys who throw groundballs and pound the strike zone. Westbrook certainly does that. He has a groundball rate of 53 percent.

I would imagine if the Cardinals fend off the Cincinnati Reds and make the playoffs, Westbrook would be their Game Three starter and Jaime Garcia would slide into the Game Four spot.

Greenwood was a 14th round pick of the Padres in the 2009 Draft and posted a 4.15 ERA in 95.1 IP for Single-A Fort Wayne this season.

Padres receive Ryan Ludwick and minor leaguer Nick Greenwood

The Cardinals must really like Jon Jay in order to part with Ludwick. Ludwick is a solid player who has always produced since coming over to the Cardinals in 2007. Now he will go to San Diego, a team that really could use his services.

Padre right fielders rank 11th in the NL with a .758 OPS. Ludwick will certainly help improve that. Ludwick put up a .281/.343/.484 hitting line with 11 HR in 281 ABs for the Cardinals.

He should fit in nicely behind Adrian Gonzalez in the Padres lineup and will be under the Padres’ control for 2011 as well.

Indians receive Corey Kluber

Kluber was a fourth round pick of the Padres in the 2007 draft and has shown tremendous ability to strike people out in four seasons in the minor leagues. Over the course of four seasons, Kluber has a 9.5 K/9 rate, mostly as a starter.

This year, Kluber has a 3.45 ERA and 136 K’s in 122.2 innings for Double-A San Antonio.

I really like this deal for all three parties involved. The Cardinals get their No.3/No.4 starter they needed, the Padres get the outfield bat they so desperately needed, and the Indians continue to trade away assets and get decent value in return.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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So far this season, the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds have been engaged in a dogfight among the top of the National League Central. With St. Louis recently solidifying their starting rotation, that may be about to change.

St. Louis pulled off a three-team deal with the San Diego Padres and Cleveland Indians, acquiring Indians starter Jake Westbrook while shipping right fielder Ryan Ludwick to San Diego. Meanwhile, the Reds, who have been in need of bullpen help all season, made no moves leading up to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

“There were a couple yesterday that we had been working on for a while that fell apart at the end,” Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty said after the 4:00 PM EST deadline had passed. “The players we were pursuing were not traded. They probably were not real serious.”

So, while quality arms like Octavio Dotel, Kyle Farnsworth, Kerry Wood, and Chad Qualls will all wear new uniforms in the coming days, none of them will suit up in Cin City.

Instead, the Reds look to build from within, with Russ Springer, former Cardinal Jason Isringhausen, and young Cuban fireballer Aroldis Chapman waiting in the minor leagues.

Meanwhile, St. Louis has bolstered their starting rotation with a quality fourth starter in Jake Westbrook. Ryan Ludwick, who was batting .281/.343/.484 with 11 home runs, 43 RBI, and 44 runs scored in 77 games, was sent to the NL West-leading Padres. St. Louis also receives Padres left-handed prospect Nick Greenwood and an undisclosed amount of cash from Cleveland.

“I think they gave up a pretty good hitter to get him,” Jocketty said of the Westbrook-
Ludwick deal. “Offense has been one of their struggles of late. He’s a good addition for them but they also lost a very good offensive player.”

But although they traded Ludwick, the Cardinals are faithful that rookie Jon Jay, who has batted .396 and slugged .604 while filling in for an injured Ludwick, can fill the void admirably.

The 21-year-old has impressed the Cardinals organization, obviously enough to turn the reins over to him in right field, where he started Saturday’s game against the Pirates. He also plays a good center field, although that position is currently held by Colby Rasmus. He is fourth among NL center fielders in Total Zone Runs this year.

“In fairness, our offense was inconsistent with him,” Cards GM John Mozeliak said. “Will it be inconsistent without him? I don’t know. But we have had some success when we’ve had players out of the lineup. We still have a chance to get [David] Freese back in the next 10 days or so, and if that happens, that should be a jolt offensively for the club. But overall, I just felt like the way things were going offensively, it made sense.”

Ludwick, who has been a fan favorite during his four years in St. Louis, had mixed feelings about the deal.

“I’m excited,” the newest Padre said. “Sad, excited, nervous, a lot of things…[Coming to St. Louis] jump-started my career. That’s why I’m sad to leave. Management, coaching staff, players, I got along with everyone. I’m sad leaving the fans. They treated me great.”

Westbrook, who has not been to the playoffs since 2007, carried a much merrier tone.

“I’m excited to go to a club contending for a playoff spot and pitch in some meaningful ballgames,” he said. “That’s why you play the game, for a chance to get into the playoffs, and I’m looking forward to doing that.”

The righty, who had pitched over 210 innings per season from 2004-06 before undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing all of the 2009 campaign, has been slowly returning to form over the course of this season. Although he is 6-7 with a 4.65 ERA over the course of the season, he has seen a return to form lately, averaging 6.4 innings over his last 15 games.

Although St. Louis may miss Ludwick’s bat while Jay transitions to a starting job, receiving some dependability from someone outside of Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Jaime Garcia will help over the long stretch, and gives the Cardinals a serviceable options other than their top three starters come October.

If Cincinnati doesn’t find some way to strengthen their bullpen, they may be looking up at St. Louis come playoff time.

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Jake Westbrook and Ryan Ludwick were traded today in a creative three-way trade. The moving parts in this deal looked like this:

Cardinals acquire:
Jake Westbrook (From Indians)
Nick Greenwood (From Padres)
Undisclosed amount of cash (From Indians)

Padres acquire:
Ryan Ludwick (From Cardinals)
Undisclosed amount of cash (From Indians)

Indians acquire:
Corey Kluber (From Padres)

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