Kuzul

Whenever true baseball fans discuss the San Diego Padres, they attribute many things to the team from America’s Finest City.

It could be the fact that they have never won the World Series. It could be their ballpark and how its mere size could host the entire Wild Animal Park. Some people will eagerly point to Tony Gwynn, Mr. Padre himself. Cynics will recall the old brown uniforms and how the Friars couldn’t have looked more ridiculous in hot pink or if they all took the field in San Diego Chicken costumes.

One thing that has not been connected to the Padres has been that disease that befalls many franchises at some point, which is an overwhelming need for a closer.

In fact, you’d have to hire an archaeologist to dig for any evidence that the Padres were ever in need of one. 

There was Rollie Fingers featuring his handlebar mustache, Goose Gossage with his Fu Manchu, Craig Lefferts and his mad dash from the bullpen, Cy Young award winner Mark Davis, cigarette smoking Rod Beck, Trevor Hoffman and Hell’s Bells and finally, Hoffman’s direct descendant, “Blow me away” Heath Bell.

Whatever the baseball fan may or may not list concerning the woes of the San Diego Padres, an issue with the closer has never been one of them. It’s a mechanism that’s been as automatic as the sun setting in the West or tourists flocking to Pacific Beach. Although I will not bother with the stats here, there is little doubt that San Diego ranks near the top for converted save opportunities over its history.

Enter Heath Bell, heir apparent to legend and all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman.

Now in his fifth year with the Padres, Bell needed to wait until the tender age of 31 and Trevor Hoffman’s virtual dismissal from the Padres to flex his muscle and pump his mid-90s heat past baffled hitters in late innings. Through it all, Heath Bell never complained, raining numerous accolades on his now retired predecessor.

When his chance finally arrived in 2009, Heath Bell ran with it.

He is the direct opposite of Trevor: Whereas Bell throws a heavy fastball, Hoffman’s would have had trouble cracking a windshield. Hoffman’s out pitch would be the change-up, no doubt his ticket to Cooperstown when five years will have passed. Bell gets batters with heat or his curve. Fans marveled at Hoffman’s physique, whereas Bell at times resembles a float at Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade.

What both players do have in common is a 41-game save streak, tops in franchise history.

Bell’s streak came to an end last night at Petco, courtesy of a two-run throwing error by third baseman Chase Headley, who threw away Heath Bell’s shot at history.

If there is one thing that might trump Heath Bell’s ability, then it is his character. The undisputed leader of the Padres’ bullpen (dubbed the “Penitentiary”), Bell showed a tremendous amount of class following the game, citing the two batters he’d walked earlier in the inning as the key for the streak buster rather than Headley’s obvious spike of the baseball.

It’s hard not to root for a guy like Heath Bell.

A San Diego county native, Bell ironically made his debut against the Padres, pitching two innings with three strikeouts for the New York Mets in 2004, seven years after he’d been drafted. In 2006, he would get his big break when the Mets traded him to the Padres where he would become their setup man in the eighth inning before Hoffman would close games out.

As guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Ozzie Smith before him can attest, being a star in San Diego ultimately has the predictability of what happens to a target when Seal Team Six breaks into your house.

With Heath Bell making a whopping $7.5 million this season, his continued employment in San Diego beyond the season is as likely as the city of San Diego purchasing snowplows for weather related emergencies.

No matter which way the ball bounces, San Diego is fortunate to have a player like Heath Bell; a leader, a tremendous athlete and a class act.

The city will certainly be a worse place without him.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

31 years after the Summer of Love, Major League Baseball decided to stage a little summer smoochfest of their own in 1998.

This would find full grown adults in colorful clothes who would consume illegal drugs to their hearts’ desire, all under the approving eye of both the owners and the commissioner. McGwire in Cardinal red would amicably bump chests with Sosa in Cub blue, and all was right with the world.

The Padres would win their second National League pennant. Never mind that they would be swept by the pinstriped Yankees in the series. Although this may have been the Summer of Love: MLB Edition, the fine print clearly stated that although peace may guide the planet, MLB would not assume liability if this did not rid said planet of evil empires.

Padres ownership would eventually try to ride the success of the 1998 pennant to the acquisition of a new state-of-the-art home that would be built in downtown San Diego, courtesy of voter approval and the ensuing taxpayer money, if the constituents were successfully duped. With management’s mission finally accomplished, it was time to stick it to the ballparks’ opponents and to the one class occupying the next rung above them on the social ladder: Padres fans.

No one will forget the fire sale that immediately followed the vote, sending the grand majority of our  pennant winning needle heads to a place where they could be adequately compensated for their services. Caminiti? Bye, bye. Greg Vaughn? See ya. Kevin Brown? Can’t pay you, maybe the Dodgers? Steve Finley? Adios.

Back then, people were furious. Long before people actually knew there was a ’98 Summer of Love.

But hey, at least there would be the new ballpark in a few years as a souvenir. Whereas New York had the House that Ruth built, San Diego now had Petco Park, the House that Roids built.

To be fair here, this was the beginning of a downtown revival. If there were ever doubts about whether San Diego was America’s Finest City in the last century, there are arguably none now.

An area that had formerly been known for its old dilapidated warehouses and its streets that made Skidrow look like Main Street in Disneyland had received a facelift without the Hollywood plastic surgeons and the Botox. More than ever, it’s not hard to see why San Diego tourists fall in love with the city.

Of course, the only people who would get fleeced in the deal were Padres fans.

Besides the aforementioned firesale all but eliminated any chances they might have remotely had of defending the pennant in ’99, management quickly figured out years later that they had blundered again.

Suddenly the Q (I still refer to it as the Murph) didn’t seem like such a bad place and felt like a launching pad compared to Petco, baseball’s answer to the Grand Canyon that required rocket launchers to send balls over the fences. Players, in particular popular lefthanders like Ryan Klesko and Brian Giles, complained how their numbers had decreased along with their earning potential. Now it appeared the juicers that had left San Diego were needed back in the worst way. 

To be perfectly clear here: there are certainly fair weather fans that will only come off the beach and stow away their surfboards if a superior product is served. These are the fans that come in droves in September once they see the Padres have a realistic chance of winning. These are still the fans who would not shed a tear over their fish tacos if the Padres left town. When the Friars do have a chance that late in the season, you can even see the seagulls on Ocean Beach Pier wearing Pads caps.

But then there are the diehard fans, the Padres fans who are as fiercely loyal to their team as any fans in the nation. Each and every one of these can personally take credit for the literally unheard of supersonic boom that reverberated throughout the city during the 1984 and 1998 playoff runs. These are the fans who have been to the games through numerous miserable 100 loss seasons, especially during the Kroc years.

These are the fans who seem to have a lifetime subscription to Fleeced Magazine.

And they deserve better.

In 1998, management claimed they would need the new ballpark for the added revenue, that they could only remain competitive with the additional luxury boxes and that ownership in its current form was picking fish bones out of the dumpster to survive. 

Fast forward to the year 2011. The Padres rank near the bottom of the pack in payroll, the new revenue has been lost somewhere in the vast power alleys of Petco and free agent players will scour Japan and Cuba for professional contracts before watching their careers take a Greg Louganis-like dive into obscurity in a place like Petco. Did management ever consider having people hit a few balls before measuring for the new ballpark? Maybe checking the winds and the air humidity? How about tossing a few feathers up in the air?

After all, who besides the fans would care? Remember them? The people who buy the tickets?

All we can offer them is subpar product featuring retreads and costing less than 40 mil?

To ownership and management, we can only tweak the lyrics from a different song of the 60’s.

All we are saying is give the fans a chance.

They deserve that much.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Embarrassing, pathetic, futile. These are words that come to mind so far this season while watching my Padres become the WORST hitting team of all time. EVER.

San Diego leads all of baseball in several pitching categories, as well as being dead last in almost every offensive statistic. It might be the ballpark, it might be the players, it might be the coaching, and it might be all three of these things, brought together in the perfect storm of hopelessness.

Lets take a quick look at some Padre starters and the numbers they have compiled so far in 2011…

PS- sorry for my absence- no internet at the new house yet…

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Padres All Star closer Heath Bell is the latest Padre to step to the edge of the contract precipice, looking down at the Padres future meager wage offerings and hearing the call of the Yankees or the Red Sox and their monetary sirens song.

This is what is wrong with the sport and in some waysm all sports in the 21st century. There is no longer any semblance of a level playing field when it comes to the buying and selling of players.

Your team is either a have or a have not, there is no in between. If in fact a team is lucky enough to develop or sign a player who takes off, reality soon rears its head, in the form of a trade for prospects, or an eventual huge free agent contract from one of the elite money teams. No where is this syndrome more pronounced than in Major League Baseball, where the name of the game is Gawd Bless Cave 23, and to blazes with everybody else….

The best us Padre fans can hope for is to see a few good prospects in their early years, acquired in a never ending round robin of development and trade, trade and development.

I am going to look at a few players who the Padres should be interested in dealing Bell for, if in fact they deal him at all. Padre fans are very vocal when it comes to the closer role here in San Diego.

All Time Saves leader Trevor Hoffman was retained past his prime as a nod to the power of Padre fans wishes. Bell hopefully will be retained,  since Padre fans deserve at least that much.

As in our power closer, as Padre tradition demands… 

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During the reign of Kevin Towers, and especially since their move to PETCO park, the Padres have been known as a team with good pitching and a below average and boring offense. Games of 1-0, 2-1, etc., are what Padres fans have come to expect.

We’ve seen the likes of Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux and David Wells come through PETCO. This year’s team doesn’t have a “wow” factor in their rotation (Mat Latos? I just don’t want to put that pressure on him yet), but it does have at least three young guys who may be ready to make a jump, and a veteran who just might revert to his old ways with a change of scenery, coach, and ballpark.

This year’s rotation will feature veteran Aaron Harang, and youngsters Mat Latos, Clayton Richard and Tim Stauffer. The fifth spot is up for grabs between Wade LeBlanc, Cory Luebke and Dustin Moseley.

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San Diego Padres (2010 record: 90-72)

Notable additions: SS Jason Bartlett, 1B Jorge Cantu, RHP Aaron Harang, 1B Brad Hawpe, 2B Orlando Hudson, CF Cameron Maybin, SP Dustin Moseley, C Gregg Zaun

Notable subtractions: 2B David Eckstein, RHP Jon Garland, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, CF Tony Gwynn Jr., SS Miguel Tejada, C Yorvit Torrealba, RHP Chris Young

IMO, there is very little chance the Padres repeat their surprising performance of 2010. The club lost three-quarters of its starting infield, its center fielder, one of its catchers, and one of its best starting pitchers. In each instance, the replacement player was a significant downgrade, except at second base (Hudson in place of Eckstein). It is pretty safe to say that the club has thrown itself headlong into re-building mode.

The offense:

C: Nick Hundley
INF: Brad Hawpe (1B), Orlando Hudson (2B), Jason Bartlett (SS) and Chase Headley (3B)
OF: Ryan Ludwick (LF), Cameron Maybin (CF) and Wil Venable (RF)

Gonzalez had another outstanding season, yet at the end of the year it became obvious the organization would not be able to sign him. So he was shipped to Boston in exchange for three of the Red Sox’s top six prospects (including No. 1 prospect Casey Kelly). But he wasn’t the only player to find a new home, as three-quarters of the infield was turned over.

The impact of the loss of 1B Adrian Gonzalez is incalculable, especially when you consider he has been replaced by Hawpe (.245, 9 HR, 44 RBI). The additions of Hudson and Bartlett in the middle infield will do little (or nothing) to help offset A-Gon’s loss, as both are getting long in the tooth. Hudson’s skills are clearly diminishing with age.

As for Bartlett, his numbers with Tampa last year were pretty dismal by his standards, although his sub-standard performance can be explained (in part) by his 30 percent hit-rate. Headley was supposed to provide power and production when he arrived in San Diego, but Petco Park seems to have sapped some of the pop in his bat (though his splits illustrate he struggles on the road, too, and that he is not getting the ball in the air often enough to take advantage of his power).

In the outfield, Ludwick’s production back in 2008 has proven to be an outlier. His productivity diminished in each of the last two seasons and, at 32 years of age, it is clear his better days are in the rear view window.

Maybin has shown tremendous potential in the minor leagues, but his contact rate and on-base skills in the big leagues have prevented him from taking full advantage of his elite speed. As for Venable, he should be considerably better in 2011. Last year he had a dismal contact rate (67 percent, well below his career mark). Looking ahead it seems likely it will return to the low-to-mid-70s, raising his average considerably. If he is able to get on base more consistently, his speed could allow him to develop into a 40-to-50 steals guy.

The pitching staff:

The pitching staff will likely take a considerable step backwards in 2011. The exchange of innings-eater Garland for the increasingly injured (and ineffective) Harang will have a significant adverse impact on the club in 2011. It is a trade-off that will result in (at least) a half-dozen fewer wins in 2011.

Mat Latos showed tremendous growth last year, especially in terms of his DOM and ground ball rate, but his increased workload suggest a regression, or injury risk, is in the offing for 2011.

LHP Clayton Richard had a great first half last season, but struggled throughout the second half. It remains to be seen whether he is the solid pitcher the Padres saw in the first half or the guy who posted a 4.78 ERA in the second half.

The fifth spot in the rotation will likely go to former first-round pick Tim Stauffer, a ground ball pitcher who has demonstrated the ability to strike out enough hitters to be effective in the major leagues.

The bullpen has a bevy of solid arms. Heath Bell is among the best closers in all of baseball. Luke Gregerson (89 K in 78 IP), Mike Adams (73 K in 66 IP), Joe Thatcher (45 K in 35 IP) and Ernesto Frieri (41 K in 31 IP) provide manager Bud Black a bevy of strong-armed options out of the bullpen to bridge the gap between the starting rotation and Bell.

Prediction for 2011: fourth place, 77-85

It’s likely the team will have offensive deficiencies it will not be able to overcome. The team ranked 12th (of 16) in the NL in runs scored last year and then lost its most productive hitter. Only two of the team’s returning regulars had as many as 50 RBI.

The pitching will have to be good for the team to perform any better than this projection, but it seems unlikely the staff can come close to accomplishing what it did last season. The data suggests the team should be wary of counting too heavily on Latos; they have increased his innings pitched by 60-plus in each of the last two seasons. For pitchers under 25 years of age that type of increase has the potential to be disastrous. If he should struggle or suffer an injury, 70 wins becomes more likely than 80 wins.

Top Five Prospects:

1. Casey Kelly, RHP
2. Simon Castro, RHP
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
4. Donavan Tate, OF
5. Cory Luebke, LHP

Casey Kelly was selected by the Red Sox with the 30th overall pick in the 2008 draft. The Sox lured him away from a Tennessee football scholarship with a three million dollar signing bonus. He had stated a preference to play the infield (shortstop) rather than pitch, so the Red Sox agreed to give him ONE year in the field before asking him to make a final decision.

In 2009, the organization allowed Kelly to spend the first half of the season pitching, with the concession he could play shortstop in the second half. While he showed impressive defensive ability at short, his superb performance as a starting pitcher warranted a permanent position change.

He was selected to pitch in the MLB Futures Game and was later named the Red Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year. The choice was made—he would pitch.

He is a well-rounded pitcher who has three “plus” pitches, all of which he throws for strikes. He has a low-90s fastball that scouts score as a “65″ on the “20–80″ scale. His off-speed pitches make him a top-tier prospect. He has quick action arm and a consistent delivery that makes his changeup difficult to recognize. It is his out pitch… he uses it to rack up groundouts. Kelly also has an 11-to-5 curveball that has “swing and miss” potential.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Padres were in the National League West driver’s seat for most of the 2010 campaign.  As we all very well know, a 10-game lull in August and September paved the way for the San Francisco Giants’ run to the World Series title.

The Padres have a new look in 2011.  Their projected Opening Day lineup will feature six new faces, and Mat Latos will take the ball in an effort to solidify himself as a staff ace in his second full season.

It will take a full team effort for there to be postseason baseball in San Diego.  Let’s take a look at five players whose productivity will pay dividends in 2011.

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The San Diego Padres will have to find a way to overcome a terrible finish to the 2010 season. The Padres were atop the National League at 76-49 on Aug. 25, but fell apart down the stretch, going just 14-23 to finish the year.

San Diego ended up finishing second in the division to the San Francisco Giants, who eventually won the World Series.

San Diego will have to compete this year without All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who now plays for the Red Sox. Still, with a solid pitching staff and terrific defense, San Diego is expected to be a threat to win the West again in 2011.

Here is a look at the Padres’ Opening Day starting lineup and starting rotation, plus our MLB predictions on where they will end the season in the NL West.

Starting Lineup

It’s not easy trying to figure out where the Padres are going to get their run production from without Gonzalez in the middle of the order. San Diego went out and added first baseman Brad Hawpe, center fielder Cameron Maybin, second baseman Orlando Hudson and shortstop Jason Bartlett, but not one of these guys had a good season last year.

Hawpe wasn’t near the hitter he was in Colorado after leaving the Rockies, and we don’t expect his numbers to improve playing in San Diego. On the other hand, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Hudson and Bartlett turn things around, but neither brings a lot of power.

Maybin could be the one who provides some of that power. He will only be 24 this season, and while he hasn’t lived up to his potential, a change of location could be all this kid needs to turn things around.

The Padres are also hoping left fielder Ryan Ludwick can rebound from last year. San Diego traded for Ludwick last season, but he hit only .211 with six home runs and 26 RBI in 59 games with the Padres, numbers he has to improve on if they are going to make another run in the West.

One other player that could turn things around is right fielder Will Venable, who was second on the team with 13 home runs despite playing most of the year with a bad back. The rest of the lineup doesn’t figure to provide a whole lot. Catcher Nick Hundley hit just .249, and third baseman Chase Headley has yet to deliver in two full seasons as a starter.

Starting Rotation

It seems like San Diego always has one of the better starting rotations in the game, and we wouldn’t be surprised if that was the case once again this season.

San Diego’s pitching staff features two outstanding pitchers in Mat Latos and Clayton Richard. Latos went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA, while Richard went 14-9 with a 3.75 ERA. Both were much better than their records indicate, but unless the offense finds a way to deliver, it’s hard to picture their win totals increasing much this season.

San Diego likes what it got out of Tim Stauffer last season. He went 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA in seven starts and 25 relief appearances, which should be enough to make him a full-time starter this season.

The Padres went out and added Dustin Moseley and Aaron Harang this offseason to shore up the starting rotation. Harang appears to be a big risk, considering he hasn’t topped six wins his last three seasons. Moseley, on the other hand, could surprise, as he should benefit from pitching at PETCO Park compared to pitching for the Yankees in the loaded AL East.

San Diego also has Wade LeBlanc and Cory Luebke, who could start as well.

2011 Projections: Third Place NL West

The Padres were a huge surprise last year, considering they went just 75-87 the year before. The starting rotation is solid at the top, but there are concerns at the other three spots, plus the offense could be even worse than it was last season. While the Padres could surprise again, we believe they will fall back in the NL West this year.

The Padres’ MLB odds to win the NL West this season are currently listed at +1200.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Usually, If a player is exploring the fringe, they roll through sunny San Diego sooner or later. It’s the preferred destination of guys looking for one more shot, returning from a long injury, or one last decent paycheck.

This season looks no different for the Padres, who have invited several familiar names to camp this year. I have penciled in 23 players so far, that leaves two player’s jobs that are up for grabs.

Given the nature of turnover on the Padres fringe, these guys may be gone before we get to April, but for right now, there are my top five players with the best chance to get those last two roster slots.

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Adrian Gonzalez? Gone. David Eckstein? History. The Hairstons? Adios.

Miguel Tejada? Auf Weidersehen. Yorvit Torrealba? Movin on..

You get the picture. The Padres will be a different team in 2011.

The question becomes “Is different better?” I know that what I see on paper right now looks much better than the last two seasons teams did at this same point. Lets take a look at what should be the Padres starting line up for opening day.

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