From the days in New York to the present in California, the Giants and the Dodgers have had one of the most storied rivalries in all of sports.
When it seems like every game is as dramatic and heart-wrenching as the previous one, it is difficult to pick out only a select few of the highlights. Here are my top 10 moments in the Giants-Dodgers rivalry.
Since coming to San Francisco, the Giants have had a roller coaster ride, with moments of euphoria and crushing defeat.
Nevertheless, Giants fans will undoubtedly admit that the 21st century has been especially kind to them, especially over the last few seasons. Even so, the previous several decades weren’t so pleasant for fans out west.
Let’s take a look at some of the biggest moments for the Giants since they moved out to San Francisco.
When the San Francisco Giants signed free agent outfielder Michael Morse on Dec. 17, the move signified Brian Sabean’s desire to fix something that wasn’t entirely broken. Yes, the addition of Morse to the lineup will surely bring power that would-be starter Gregor Blanco could never provide. The Giants have also struggled in the power-hitting department as of late.
But is an influx of home runs really what the team needs? Before we get ahead of ourselves in answering that question, it should be noted that Morse isn’t even guaranteed to bring power to the Giants lineup in the first place.
While he is just two years removed from a 31-homer season, it has taken Morse each of the last two seasons combined to match that total. That’s not to mention that the ex-Nationals slugger will be moving to the pitcher’s heaven that is AT&T Park, which featured the third-lowest home run rate in the majors in 2013 (per ESPN).
However, assuming Morse overcomes his lackluster performance from last season and becomes one of the Giants’ premier power sources, will he prove to be worth his $5 million price tag even then?
Part of the reason I’m hesitant to answer “yes” is that Morse won’t prove to be a significant upgrade over Blanco. That’s primarily because of the defensive liability that Morse has proven to be throughout his career. In fact, Morse has eclipsed Blanco’s WAR of 2.5 last season just once in his career, according to baseball-reference.com, and the former’s combined WAR over the last three seasons is still less than Blanco’s 2013 WAR, per baseball-reference.com.
Of course, WAR is not the all-encompassing statistic that it’s often made out to be. There’s quite a bit of value to be found in the late-inning home run that Morse will be able to provide far more often than Blanco. But with so much ground to cover in the AT&T Park outfield and the Giants’ heavy reliance on pitching, defense should often take precedence over offense in the outfield.
Despite all the potential pitfalls that the addition of Morse brings, the outlook isn’t all bad for the upcoming season. According to ZiPS, Morse is projected to compile a .719 OPS with a WAR of 1.2.
For $5 million, that’s pretty solid value, and it will almost certainly be an offensive upgrade over the alternative. Additionally, Bruce Bochy can insert Blanco into the lineup in the later innings for some defensive relief.
But perhaps the best part of the signing is the potential. Don’t forget, Morse did bat .294 with an .857 OPS in his four seasons in Washington. A return to that level of play isn’t entirely likely, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility either.
In my estimation, Morse will finish somewhere in between the aforementioned projected numbers and his pre-2013 numbers. A .265/.310/.450 slash line isn’t out of the question, and if all goes well, Morse could even approach 20 home runs.
Why those numbers? Most importantly, Morse has said he’s 100 percent healthy, according to Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News. According to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, Morse has also looked fantastic this spring, and he’s happy to be playing for the Giants.
That points toward a nice rebound for Morse, albeit at the price of poor defense in left field. Even so, for $5 million, that’s a bargain.
All statistics courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
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Tim Lincecum may no longer be “The Freak” he once was. His days of being the Giants frontline starter are long gone as Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner have become the top two pitchers of the staff. Lincecum has struggled mightily the past two seasons, but he will resurrect his career and have a comeback year in 2014.
After finishing 2013 with a 10-14 record and a 4.37 ERA, Lincecum spent his offseason back home in Seattle where he rented out a warehouse and built a bullpen to work on mechanics. This was something new for Lincecum as he normally heads into spring training without throwing off a mound during the offseason.
“I just felt like more throwing would be the best thing I could do for myself,” said Lincecum per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, “not necessarily throwing hard, but getting good mechanics and the feel of that ball coming out of my hand from an earlier part of the offseason.”
Spending extra time on the mound and becoming comfortable with his mechanics is big for Lincecum. Over the past two seasons he has given up a total of 44 home runs, a mark that must improve in 2014.
Lincecum does not have the blazing fastball he once had as a young pup in the big leagues. In an effort to focus on command, Lincecum turned to veteran and fellow teammate Tim Hudson for advice.
“Hudson told him to divide the strike zone horizontally and focus throwing to the bottom half, relying on movement and not worrying if he can get hitters out higher in the zone,” said Schulman per the San Francisco Chronicle.
With a decreased velocity, Lincecum can no longer challenge hitters over the plate with his fastball. Instead, he has to be able to locate the fastball and effectively use his off-speed pitches.
During his no-hitter last season against the San Diego Padres, Lincecum produced 29 swing and misses while toying hitters with his change-up. This performance showed that Lincecum could still be a dominant pitcher. “Of his 148 pitches, Lincecum used his change a whopping 47 times,” according to fangraphs.com.
Lincecum has the ability to strikeout hitters with his off-speed pitches and should continue to lean on his change-up this year. Keeping the ball down and getting hitters to chase is how he will have a productive year.
By throwing bullpens during the offseason, Lincecum should not have to waste much time in getting comfortable back on the mound. If he can string together some quality starts in spring training, Timmy will be carrying a lot of confidence heading into the season.
How many wins do you think Lincecum will have in 2014?
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On Saturday, the San Francisco Giants agreed to a deal with outfielder Tyler Colvin, according to Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News. The deal is pending a physical, and the contract is a minor-league deal, according to the San Francisco Chronicle‘s Henry Schulman.
Colvin has reportedly earned a spot in big league camp as a non-roster invitee with a chance to compete for the fifth outfield spot, though he has his work cut out for him after suffering through a rough 2013 season marred by injuries and poor performance.
Indeed, Colvin is coming off a season in which he batted just .160 in 75 at bats with the Colorado Rockies, but don’t let that fool you. In 2012, he batted .290 with a solid .858 OPS in 452 plate appearances, his best season to date.
Colvin has also shown a propensity for power hitting in the past. He blasted 20 homers in just 358 at bats in 2010, his rookie season, and averages a home run every 22.9 at bats for his career. He also has solid gap-hitting ability, as indicated by his 10 triples in 2012 and above-average .454 career slugging percentage.
In my estimation, Colvin will see playing time primarily, if not entirely, against right-handed pitching. The lefty has a career .781 OPS against righties, which is certainly nothing to scoff at, but that number drops to .640 against lefties. He could prove valuable in pinch-hitting opportunities against right-handed relievers.
However, that’s assuming Colvin makes the big league club. He’ll have to put on quite a show during spring training, otherwise the most likely outlook for him is to begin the season in Triple-A. At the very least, he’ll provide an upgrade over the options the Giants had last season when their starting outfielders faltered. (Roger Kieschnick, anyone?)
Despite decent prior success, Colvin won’t work any miracles for the Giants. He’ll add some much-needed outfield depth, but not much else. He lacks discipline at the plate (career .289 OBP, 4.4 K/BB ratio) and he doesn’t play the field particularly well (career -3.3 UZR, per FanGraphs). There’s also little chance he’ll return to his 2012 level of performance because he had a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .364 that year, according to FanGraphs, which is 72 points higher than his career average.
That number came back down to earth last season, when Colvin struggled mightily. Unless he gets lucky again in 2014, or makes a change to his approach at the plate, he won’t approach a .290 average.
Perhaps Colvin will prove otherwise, but it appears the Giants have picked up another backup outfielder who will provide little more than some extra competition for the No. 5 outfield spot.
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Pitchers and catchers reported to spring training on Valentine’s Day, and the rest of the squad joined their teammates on the diamond February 18.
New Giants, like pitcher Tim Hudson and left fielder Michael Morse, are looking to prove themselves to their new teammates, but their spots on the roster are secure.
Returning players such as pitcher Tim Lincecum and third baseman Pablo Sandoval will use their spring to re-establish their former MLB dominance.
Young stars Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner will reacquaint themselves with veteran mainstays Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro.
For a few players, spring training is do-or-die. For them, it’s either break out from the pack or miss a chance to play on an MLB roster.
Here are five players who could become those breakout candidates.
By now, San Francisco Giants fans have undoubtedly heard plenty about their team’s starting pitching struggles in 2013. But even with the lackluster performance that defined Giants pitching last season, there’s plenty to look forward to in 2014, particularly when it comes to the aces of the rotation.
While Madison Bumgarner shouldered the bulk of the load in 2013, Matt Cain faltered early in the season. By the time he recovered, the Giants were well out of contention.
But given each starter’s success in the second half of the season (and Bumgarner‘s success throughout), Cain and Bumgarner could form one of the best front ends of any rotation in the majors, if not the best, in the coming seasons.
Yes, that’s a bold statement, especially when considering that the Los Angeles Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, and the Detroit Tigers‘ duo of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer is potentially just as scary.
But before you write off Cain and Bumgarner, take a look at just how promising this season is for both pitchers.
Cain is the more questionable of the pair, judging from his 4.00 ERA and eight wins in 2013. But in his last 18 starts of the season, Cain recorded 14 quality starts including nine of his last 10 games.
That led to a sparkling 2.36 ERA in the second half—a total eclipsed by only eight other players in the majors with over 70 innings in that span.
Of course, the starter who ranked one spot ahead of Cain in second-half ERA, besting him by 0.06 of a point, was Bumgarner. But that wasn’t anything new for MadBum, who finished with a 2.77 mark on the season, good for eighth in the majors.
Unsurprisingly, the only other duo from one team to feature in the top 10 in second-half ERA, aside from Cain and Bumgarner, were Kershaw and Greinke who finished first and third, respectively. Those two are the current gold standard for regular-season success, but there’s also something to be said for postseason experience and success, both of which Bumgarner and Cain possess in droves.
Indeed, Bumgarner has tossed 15 scoreless frames in his World Series career, and Cain owns a 2.10 career postseason ERA thanks to his astounding 21.1 scoreless innings in 2010.
That’s something neither Kershaw nor Greinke can speak to. Those who watched the 2013 NLCS are familiar with Kershaw‘s playoff shortcomings; that was nothing new, as he’s now 0-3 with a 7.23 ERA in his NLCS career for an overall postseason 4.23 ERA.
Greinke has been just as poor, with a 4.30 ERA in 37.2 career postseason innings.
The bottom line: If you’re looking for regular season stats, Greinke and Kershaw are your guys. But for those who prefer proven success in October (as well as in the regular season), there is no better pairing than Cain and Bumgarner.
For now, the Dodgers pair of Kershaw and Greinke reigns supreme to Cain and Bumgarner overall. There’s even an argument to be made for Verlander and Scherzer‘s supremacy. But if Cain and MadBum both turn in ace-worthy numbers in 2014, their postseason numbers and sustained success over the past several seasons would make them the de facto No. 1 pitching duo in baseball.
All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.
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In an otherwise painfully rough season, one of the few offensive bright spots for the San Francisco Giants in 2013 was right fielder Hunter Pence.
The Giants’ season was mostly plagued with inconsistency, and just about everyone wearing a Giants uniform was a culprit. But Pence proved to be the exception, appearing in all 162 games while compiling a .283/.339/.483 line to go along with 27 HRs, 99 RBIs and 22 stolen bases.
The question, then, becomes whether we can expect Pence to repeat his performance in 2014. The best indicator is the Giants right fielder’s steady production over the years.
Indeed, when it comes to consistency in power and run production, it doesn’t get much better than Pence. The Giants right fielder’s season lows in home runs, RBIs and runs in the last six seasons stand at 22 (2011), 72 (2009) and 76 (2009), respectively, which would be fantastic totals for just about anyone else in the Giants lineup.
In his career, Pence’s 162-game average, per baseball-reference.com, consists of 25 home runs, 94 RBIs, 87 runs and 14 steals (on top of an .815 OPS). Considering he played in all 162 games last season, it’s not a stretch to expect similar numbers in 2014.
Speaking of which, another element that defines Pence, aside from his consistency, is his rather impressive durability. He hasn’t played in fewer than 154 games in any season in the majors other than when he was called up midway through the season in 2007, his rookie year.
That means the Giants can rely on Pence to show up every day and give 110 percent, something they haven’t always been able to get out of their top hitters in the past. (i.e. Buster Posey’s injury history, Barry Bonds eclipsed 150 games just once in his last nine seasons in San Francisco.)
Pence will also hit behind Brandon Belt and Buster Posey in 2014. Belt has the potential to really break out in 2014 if he hits like he did in the second half of 2013, and Posey has high expectations after adding muscle in the offseason to combat the fatigue of catching duties that may have led to his .244 second-half average in 2013.
Pence was still able to drive in 99 runs in 2013, despite dealing with a largely inconsistent group of batters hitting ahead of him. Since coming over to the Giants, Pence has proven to be a bona fide RBI machine (144 RBIs in 221 games), but his best run producing season yet could be 2014, thanks to the guys hitting in front of him.
The most reasonable expectation for Pence is a slight dip in average, with similar numbers otherwise across the board. I’d expect NL pitchers to learn how to better handle his over-aggressiveness (which reared its ugly head at times in 2013), and Pence’s slightly-above-average .308 BABIP (per Fangraphs) could level out.
It’s also unreasonable to expect Pence to repeat his unprecedented 22 steals in 25 attempts in 2013, as his 22 swipes nearly doubled his combined total from 2011 and 2012. But double-digit steals is still a near certainty.
If you’re looking for power, run production and a clubhouse presence, Pence will once again be your guy in 2014.
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It may be easy to reminisce about Pablo Sandoval’s three home runs in Game 1 of the 2012 World Series or Marco Scutaro’s game-winning single in Game 4. The Giants have become accustomed to playing October baseball after winning two championships in the last four seasons.
Giants fans who are craving that third ring to add to their collection should not be discouraged by last year’s 76-86 record. Even though San Francisco struggled last season, there is reason to think its World Series window is still open.
The Giants have developed a pattern of winning a championship one season and then underperforming the next. If history does in fact repeat itself, can we expect the Giants to make the World Series in 2014, 2016, 2018 and so forth? Okay, maybe that is a bit excessive, but the point is they should be World Series contenders for the next three to five years.
The name of the game for the Giants is pitching. Playing at the friendly confines of AT&T Park, the Giants rely on their pitching staff to lead the way and win ballgames. Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner have all been dominant in their World Series runs and all three will return again this season.
Bumgarner had a career year in 2013 as he went 13-9 and turned in a 2.77 ERA, earning him his first All-Star appearance. Although Bumgarner is just entering his fourth full season in the Majors, he has a 2-0 record in World Series games with two shutouts. The young lefty is signed through 2017 and if he can continue his consistency, he will be in the Cy Young conversation for years to come.
Cain has been the horse of the Giants rotation and is the longest tenured player on the club despite being just 29 years old. In 2012 he signed a six-year, $127.5 million deal so he is not going anywhere anytime soon. Cain has a lifetime ERA of 2.10 in the playoffs and won both his starts in elimination games in 2012.
As long as Cain can keep his postseason success rolling, the Giants will be a tough team to beat.
Lincecum went 4-1 in the 2010 playoffs, including an eight-inning gem to clinch a World Series title. Lincecum’s second time around in the postseason was a bit of a different story.
After a season where he had a career-high 15 losses and a 5.18 ERA, Lincecum became a weapon out of the bullpen in the 2012 playoffs. As bad as Lincecum was throughout the season, he registered 17.2 innings and a 2.55 ERA in the postseason. The Giants saw how dangerous Timmy can be as a reliever and if he struggles as a starter, off to the bullpen he goes.
The Giants’ success on the mound does not just end with their starting pitching.
After being acquired during the 2010 season, Javier Lopez has become one of the best lefty specialists in the game. Lopez owns lefties, holding them to a .170 average since 2011.
Lopez became a free agent this offseason but the Giants kept him in San Francisco with a three-year, $13 million deal. The sidearmer has helped solidify the back end of the bullpen and set the table for closer Sergio Romo.
Since Brian Wilson went down in April 2012, Romo has racked up 52 saves, including 38 during 2013. Romo does not throw hard for a closer but is not afraid to challenge hitters, as Miguel Cabrera knows all too well.
Romo is signed through 2014 and it would be a big surprise if he and the Giants do not reach an extension.
San Francisco has proved that having a strong rotation and bullpen is how to win October baseball. This method has produced two world championships, and the Giants should stick with that philosophy.
The Giants’ World Series window will remain open as long as their pitching can continue to perform as well as it did from 2010 through 2012. Young pitching and playoff experience sure seem like a good recipe for the future.
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If you followed the San Francisco Giants in 2013, you’re probably well aware that the production from the starting rotation dipped so dramatically that the then-reigning champs saw a 32-point increase in their team ERA, including an 80-point jump from 2011.
But Barry Zito and his 9.56 road ERA are gone, and veteran Tim Hudson is in as the replacement. Add in Matt Cain’s second-half success (more on that in a second) and Tim Lincecum’s continuous improvement, and the outlook is relatively bright for the once-heralded Giants rotation. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the five starters in 2014.
Matt Cain
Cain’s numbers from 2013 are a bit deceiving when trying to project his 2014 totals. Yes, his 4.00 ERA was alarmingly high, but consider this: After the All-Star break, Cain had a 2.36 ERA.
Why did the Giants righty make such a drastic improvement? Quite simply, Cain regained his command in the second half. According to FanGraphs, his walk rate dipped from 7.9 to 6.1, and he allowed just 0.87 home runs per nine innings, a huge dip from the 1.29 total that marked his disastrous first half.
That’s a testament to Cain’s ability to better locate the ball in the strike zone, an inability that plagued him in the first half to the tune of 16 home runs allowed.
Don’t expect Cain to come close to matching those fantastic second-half totals this season; he stranded an astonishing 84.5 percent of runners after the break, a total he can’t match for an entire season. With that being said, expect Cain to once again return to ace-like form.
Projection: 14-7, 3.05 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 175 Ks
Madison Bumgarner
There’s not much to say about Bumgarner, except that the Giants could have used four more of him in 2013. The young lefty stepped in as the staff ace when the rest of the staff faltered, and he put together a 2.77 ERA with a minuscule .199 opponents’ batting average.
Opponents also had a .251 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against Bumgarner, fifth-lowest in the majors according to FanGraphs. Conventional wisdom says that total will start to move upward toward the league average, but I’d argue that we can expect a similar BABIP, and thus a similar overall level of dominance, from MadBum in 2014.
Why? Because Bumgarner still possesses his nasty arsenal of pitches, and when he doesn’t strike out batters, they’re often weakly rolling over his pitches, as evidenced by MadBum‘s 46.8 ground ball percentage.
“I love the way he goes about it. No emotion,” said Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, per Henry Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle. “He just goes out there and competes. On the field, you just like to see that mentality. He gives up eight, or he shuts them out, and you see no difference in his attitude and mind-set.”
Manager Bruce Bochy has similar admiration for MadBum.
“I don’t put a ceiling on this kid,” Bochy said, per Schulman. “What he did in 2010, how he handled the playoffs and the World Series, he’s got a great makeup. He’s a big, strong guy who wants to get better.”
That drive to succeed, combined with a near-unhittable repertoire of pitches and promising statistical trends, all point toward another dominant season from Bumgarner.
Projection: 17-8, 2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 210 Ks
Tim Lincecum
Once the ace of the staff, Lincecum is now the most unpredictable starter in the rotation. Gone are the days of accolades and record numbers, but can The Freak return to respectability?
After posting an MLB-worst 5.18 ERA in 2011, Lincecum lowered that total by 81 points last season. As he learns to pitch around hitters instead of trying to blow them away, he will continue to experience growing pains, as we’ve witnessed during the last few seasons. But those growing pains are becoming increasingly infrequent, and the improvement that we’ve seen from Timmy is a testament to that hard work.
There’s also some evidence that points toward a bit of bad luck for Lincecum in 2013. He stranded only 69.4 percent of runners last season, according to FanGraphs, the 10th-lowest total in the majors, and a number that should even out a bit this year. Lincecum also had the 28th-highest BABIP in the majors last season, again a total that could level out a bit.
That doesn’t let him off the hook, but it’s an indication that he could move closer yet to becoming an average MLB starter, which is essentially all the Giants are asking. Though, with the $35 million the club will owe him over the next two seasons, it certainly wouldn’t hurt if he reverted to his Cy Young-worthy performance. (Not going to happen.)
Projection: 11-12, 3.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 215 Ks
Tim Hudson
Hudson is coming off a pretty severe injury to his right ankle, so don’t expect any miracles this season. However, consistency is the name of the game when it comes to Hudson’s career, and you can expect more of the same in 2014.
Indeed, the veteran right-hander has never compiled a non-winning season, failing to eclipse a .600 winning percentage only twice in 15 seasons. He also hasn’t had an ERA above 4.00 since 2006, a number he’s reached just twice in his career.
Hudson is now back in the Bay Area, and he’ll once again pitch in a favorable pitcher’s park. (He compiled a 92-39 record in six seasons with the Oakland A’s at the cavernous Oakland Coliseum.)
According to an Associated Press report, via ESPN, Hudson is progressing reasonably well in his return. He “looked good,” according to Buster Posey, and Bruce Bochy praised the veteran’s mechanics.
“He had a smooth, easy delivery, the same I’ve seen over the years,” Bochy said. “I don’t see him changing anything.”
Assuming Hudson returns from injury in time for the season and doesn’t experience much trouble regaining form, he’s primed for a nice return to the Bay Area.
Projection: 12-9, 3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 120 Ks
Ryan Vogelsong
Perhaps the only pitcher in the rotation who rivals the unpredictable nature of Lincecum is Vogelsong. It’s hard to draw much from the small sample size that constituted Vogelsong‘s 2013 season, but he struggled mightily when he did pitch.
The safe pick would be to project something in between Vogey’s 2013 numbers (5.73 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) and his 2012 totals (3.37, 1.23), but I’m going to go out on a limb and expect a return to 2012 form.
Why? For one, Vogelsong is a true competitor, and he’s talked about how he shoulders the blame for 2013’s failures and how he expects to improve. I also wrote recently that Vogelsong won’t have the expectations that followed his 2011 and 2012 success, thanks to his down season and the Giants’ overall lackluster performance. He’ll begin the season as the No. 5 starter in the rotation, meaning the Giants won’t be asking much of him.
Speaking of the Giants’ down year, another positive that can be drawn from the failure is the additional rest that the starters received due to their lack of participation in the postseason. Perhaps that time off is just what Vogelsong (and the rest of the staff) needs to come out firing in 2014.
Projection: 13-8, 3.55 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 130 Ks
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