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The San Francisco Giants won the 2012 World Series, their second title in three years. Expectations were very high as they entered the 2013 season, but a myriad of injuries and a few mediocre performances by key players derailed their hopes.

The Giants finished the 2013 season with a disappointing 76-86 record, a distant third behind the NL West-winning Los Angeles Dodgers.

Determined to put themselves back into title contention, Giants GM Brian Sabean wasted little time once the season ended. The Giants were very active in the market as they sought to solidify their roster.

Sabean locked up both Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum before either player hit the open market.

Pence signed a five-year, $90 million contract, which looks very reasonable in comparison to some of the other top free-agent outfielders like Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson and Carlos Beltran.

Pence led the Giants in six key offensive categories with 27 home runs, 99 RBI, 91 runs scored, 22 steals, 178 hits and a .483 slugging percentage.

In addition, Pence was the only Giant to play in all 162 games. His constant hustle and infectious attitude makes him a great teammate and fan favorite. Pence also played a very solid right field in the windy, quirky and very tough AT&T Park, home of the Giants.

Sabean took a little heat when he inked Lincecum to a two-year, $35 million deal. Although a fan favorite, Lincecum is not the same pitcher he was earlier in his career. 

He is coming off a 2013 season that saw him go 10-14, with an ERA of 4.37 and WHIP of 1.315.

Lincecum did make 32 starts and throw 197.2 innings, which has a lot of value. He allowed 184 hits and 76 walks while striking out 193.

Lincecum has lost the mid-to-upper 90s velocity that made him a two-time Cy Young Award winner. 2013 was a season that saw him learn how to get opposing hitters out with a fastball that hovered in the 90-91 mph range.

The key for Lincecum is his command and working from ahead. He still has an outstanding changeup, but his margin for error is far less that it was a few short years ago.

Like Pence, Lincecum is a fan favorite and a marketer’s dream. His No. 55 jerseys are all around AT&T Park, which makes Lincecum even more valuable to the Giants. 

Although Sabean probably could have signed Lincecum for less, he did not want to take the chance on losing him to a team like Seattle, Lincecum’s hometown. The Mariners proved they were willing to spend a lot of money this winter, which could have meant seeing Lincecum in a Seattle uniform. 

As the old saying goes, “it’s not my money,” so for only a two-year deal, it was worth the risk for the Giants, as they hope Lincecum can recapture some of the magic from his earlier years.

Sabean also secured the services of left-handed relief specialist Javier Lopez and starting pitcher Ryan Vogelsong. Lopez was very effective last season against left-handed hitters and plays a critical role in the Giants bullpen.

The Giants hope Vogelsong can return to his 2012 form, as a hand injury that occurred while batting derailed his season.

Free-agent pitcher Tim Hudson was the Giants’ biggest acquisition from outside the organization. Hudson signed a two-year, $23 million deal and will most likely slot in as the Giants’ third pitcher in the rotation.

Hudson sustained a gruesome ankle injury while covering first base in late July. Following surgery, he appears to be on track to start spring training with no restrictions.

Prior to his injury, Hudson had started 21 games and worked 131.1 innings, allowing 120 hits and 36 walks while striking out 95. Hudson’s ERA was 3.97, and he had a WHIP of 1.188. Hudson should also benefit from working half of his games at the very pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. 

With the commitment the Giants have made to pitching, Sabean has his starting rotation set, and the team’s seven-man bullpen also looks in order. 

The Giants made one other move, signing free-agent Michael Morse, who is slated to be the Opening Day left fielder. Morse agreed to a one-year, $6 million deal. If he can stay healthy, this could prove to be a steal, as Morse has excellent power and will be an offensive upgrade for the Giants. 

Morse battled a wrist injury last season. He struggled at the plate, batting only .215, with 13 home runs. If he can return to anywhere near his 2011 performance, when he hit .303 with 31 home runs and 95 RBI, the Giants will be thrilled. Morse’s .910 OBP that year was outstanding.

The NL West has three strong teams with the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Giants all having a chance to win the division.

The Dodgers have to be considered the favorite, as they are the defending NL West champions and have the money to acquire whatever they may need by the middle of the season.

The Dodgers already have an outstanding pitching staff led by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Offensively, a healthy Matt Kemp to go along with Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig give L.A. excellent firepower. 

In the end, the key for the Giants will come down to good health. If the Giants can stay relatively healthy, they and the Dodgers, with their seemingly endless financial resources, will battle it out for the division crown.

The Diamondbacks have Paul Goldschmidt and the recently acquired Mark Trumbo, but their pitching is a question mark. They also plan to start Chris Owings, an unproven youngster, at shortstop.

Even if the Giants do not win the division, they have an excellent chance to earn one of the two wild-card berths in the National League. So, if San Francisco can avoid the plethora of injuries that befell it in 2013, it will contend and ultimately make the playoffs in the upcoming season.

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Brandon Belt is set for a breakout year in 2014. The San Francisco Giants first baseman posted incredible numbers in the second half of 2013, batting .326 after the All-Star break after hitting .260 before. His OPS went from .784 to .915, a 131-point increase. But if you followed the Giants in 2013, you already knew that.

So what made the difference? Why did Belt start smashing line drives left and right in the second half of the season? Most of that can be attributed to an all-out change in his hitting style.

Stuck in a 1-for-19 slump in late July, Belt took some wise advice from hitting coach Hensley Meulens. According to Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News, Meulens suggested than Belt look to Phillies slugger Domonic Brown for help.

Brown, like Belt, struggled upon arriving at the majors, despite being touted as a prospect with high potential. Then, in 2013, Brown broke out with 27 home runs. The explanation? An altered grip on the bat.

“Domonic said it only took him a couple of days to change his grip,” Belt said, per Pavlovic’s story. “I thought, if it only took him a couple of days, maybe I can do it in a couple of days, too.”

The rest is history, as Belt increased his batting average by 66 points in the second half while finishing with career-highs in every major category.

“I was stubborn in the sense that I had had success a certain way before, and I was assuming I could get back to being successful that way,” Belt said, again per Pavlovic. “It just took a little convincing to change, I guess.”

The real question is whether Belt can continue from where he left off when 2014 rolls around. The answer is most likely yes, which can be proven by looking at some of his more advanced numbers.

One of Belt’s most significant improvements in 2013’s second half came in his dramatic fly-ball percentage decrease. In the first half, Belt had an astounding 43.9 percent fly-ball rate, which would have ranked second in the National League had he maintained it for the entire season.

Fortunately, Belt decreased his fly-ball rate to 38.2 percent in the second half. While that number is still much too high, it is a step in the right direction. Decreasing his fly-ball rate even further is key, as AT&T Park’s cavernous dimensions are extremely unkind to fly ball-prone hitters, particularly lefties.

Belt had another important improvement in a batted-ball statistic in 2013’s second half: his line-drive rate. Belt had a mediocre line-drive rate of 21.5 percent in the first half; that total skyrocketed to 27.7 percent in the second half, which would have tied him for first in the National League if he’d done it over the entire course of 2013.

The decreased fly-ball rate and increased line-drive rate both led to a much higher batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in the second half. Belt increased that total by 73 points, from .319 to .392. That is an astoundingly high total, as only Chris Johnson of the Atlanta Braves had a higher BABIP during the entire 2013 season (.394).

Belt also decreased his strikeout percentage from 23.5 percent to 19.8 percent in the second half, a decrease of 3.7 percent. That might not seem like much, but it would translate to 22 fewer strikeouts in a 600-at-bat season. That could, in turn, lead to several more hits throughout the course of the season.

Despite his numerous improvements, Belt must get better against left-handed pitching. He batted just .261 against them in 2013, and his OPS was 112 points lower against lefties than it was against righties.

The Giants, for whom runs will likely be in short supply in 2014, need Belt to step up at the plate. He will likely be their No. 3 hitter, at least on Opening Day. In order for the big bats behind him (Buster Posey, Hunter Pence) to have a chance to drive in runs, Belt will need to repeat his 2013 performance.

If he can further improve his fly-ball rate and become a productive hitter against left-handed pitching, 2014 will be a very fun season indeed for Brandon Belt.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

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The San Francisco Giants have been very active since their 2013 season ended with a 76-86 record. After winning their second world championship in three years, this past season was a disappointment. 

Injuries and performances that were below the Giants’ expectations doomed them to a third-place finish in the NL West. With the Los Angeles Dodgers now very willing and able to spend through the roof, it was incumbent upon Giants general manager Brian Sabean to bolster the roster.

Sabean and the Giants acted quickly to sign Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum before either player hit the free-agent market. Pence led the Giants in home runs, RBI, runs scored, stolen bases and OPS.

Pence’s five-year, $90 million contract looks like a relative bargain when compared to Jacoby Ellsbury, who signed a seven-year, $153 million deal with the New York Yankees, or Shin-Soo Choo’s seven-year, $130 million contract with the Texas Rangers.

Sabean and the Giants were focused on returning to their tried-and-true formula of winning with pitching. With this in mind, in addition to retaining Lincecum, the Giants also signed two mainstays of their pitching staff, veterans Javier Lopez and Ryan Vogelsong.

The biggest acquisition from outside the franchise was starting pitcher Tim Hudson, who signed a two-year, $23 million contract. Hudson started his career in the Bay Area, in Oakland, where he played from 1999-2004. He played for the Atlanta Braves for the next nine seasons.

The latest free-agent acquisition, Michael Morse, will fill a gaping hole in left field. The Giants were last in the National League in production from the left field position, and Morse will most certainly improve that.

As the hot stove fires have burned brightly for the Giants, there are still several important questions that need to be answered as the 2014 season unfolds.

Let’s take a look at these key questions. How they are answered will go a long way in determining the Giants’ success in the upcoming season. 

All stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com. All contract data courtesy of baseballprospectus.com.

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The 2013 San Francisco Giants consisted of essentially the same team that won the World Series in 2012. They had the same pitching rotation and starting lineup (sans Melky Cabrera).

Yet, the 2013 Giants proved they were an entirely different team from that of 2012, despite having largely the same players. They won 76 games, finishing 21st in runs scored and 22nd in ERA. So why, a year removed from 94 wins and a World Series title, did the Giants finish third in the NL West? What made the difference? 

All statistics courtesy of fangraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

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The San Francisco Giants have been one of the most active teams since the 2013 season ended. GM Brian Sabean has aggressively moved to restock the Giants roster, bringing back several familiar faces and adding two new free agents.

The Giants finished this past season in third place in the NL West, with a 76-86 mark. Sabean and the Giants are hoping to recapture the glory of their 2010 and 2012 World Series titles. Fortifying their roster is the first step towards that goal.

In addition, with the Los Angeles Dodgers spending freely with their endless vault of money, the Giants needed an upgrade in talent and have increased their spending. Failing to improve the roster would have likely doomed the Giants to another dismal finish in the NL West.

Let’s take a closer look at the moves the Giants have made, both the additions and the players they have decided to let go. Grades will also be provided.

All stats are courtesy of baseball-reference.com.  All contract details are courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts at baseballprospectus.com.

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MLB’s winter meetings in Orlando have reached their conclusion, but plenty of deals still have yet to be made in the baseball world. On the final day of the meetings, the San Francisco Giants made the biggest deal of the day, signing outfielder Michael Morse.

In the light of their successful deal, it seemed appropriate to compile a list of the Giants’ best acquisitions in their 55-year history since moving to San Francisco. Only time will tell if Morse will make it onto a future updated list, but for now, here are the top 10.

All statistics are courtesy of baseball-reference.com, unless otherwise noted.

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When one part of a team has struggled for years, it’s expected that the general manager would go out and try to upgrade that area.

Surprisingly, San Francisco Giants general manager Brian Sabean has different ideas.

San Francisco is known for its stellar pitching staff and poor offense. Its pitching staff wasn’t the same in 2013, but in years past, it has been outstanding. However, it suffered a season-long slump in 2013, and the 21st-ranked offense, notorious for its struggles, couldn’t pick it up.

As you would expect, the Giants were far from making the playoffs. They finished 76-86.

It might seem like the pitching staff, which had a horrid 4.37 ERA, was a major issue as well. However, it’s evident that starters Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum will be better in 2014. Once the Giants re-signed Lincecum, it would have made sense to look for starting pitchers but also focus on the offense.

Instead, the Giants have only focused on the pitching staff.

After the season ended, Sabean negotiated with, and signed, Lincecum for two more years. Seeing that the Giants only had two starters (and a potential fifth starter in Yusmeiro Petit) set in their 2014 rotation, that deal made sense.

The agreement with Tim Hudson, a durable, reliable former ace who will stabilize San Francisco’s rotation, also made sense. Hudson came for $23 million over two years, which is good value in this day and age.

Now, the Giants have a solid rotation. Most teams would feel confident with Bumgarner, Cain, Hudson and Lincecum, all of whom have been the undisputed ace of a pitching staff at some point in their careers, as the top four hurlers in the pitching staff. And most teams would then go fill another need before filling out the rotation.

Not the Giants.

The Giants apparently didn’t learn from 2013, when offensive starters Brandon Crawford and Gregor Blanco, among others, turned in horrendous offensive performances. The Giants were expected to pursue left fielders on the free-agent market or on the trade block, but they haven’t and likely won’t.

Instead, according to Tim Kawakami of The San Jose Mercury, the Giants are still looking to sign pitchers.

According to Mark Sheldon, the Giants are interested in Bronson Arroyo, an older pitcher who wants a short-term deal. That fits the Giants’ criteria, so they are interested.

However, in pursuing a fifth starter to fill out the rotation, the Giants are neglecting to improve the offense, the aspect they desperately need to improve. And, if they do sign a solid pitcher, they wouldn’t have the cash to sign a bat.

In this year’s NL, that won’t cut it. No team has won with a below-average offense since 2003, when the Florida Marlins finished barely below the average. Recently, World Series winners have been offensive juggernauts, and you can’t win the World Series with an offense in the bottom 10.

Sure, the Giants won the World Series with some great pitchers. But having a solid rotation just won’t cut it anymore. In fact, the Giants needed the 12th-best offense, one that averaged more than 4.3 runs per game in the playoffs, to win the 2012 World Series.

But the current offense just isn‘t that good. It needs significant improvement, but Sabean is clinging to the past and refusing to fix its glaring holes.

If the pitchers hit a skid, the team will suffer a severe slump. With the rival Los Angeles Dodgers likely to reach the 90-win plateau annually, the Giants can’t go through those swoons anymore.

In 2010, the Giants were dismal in August, and in 2012, they hit a swoon in late July. Luckily for them, the second-place San Diego Padres weren’t dominant in 2010, and in 2012, the star-laden Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t have enough time to mesh. Consequently, the Giants escaped with NL West titles both years.

But now, Los Angeles is a bona fide juggernaut. It has meshed and has seen a playoff run, and it will continue to compete every year. The Giants simply can’t compete by trusting a good pitching staff; they need to score.

The Giants don’t have the money to sign a top target like Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin Soo-Choo, but they can sign a high-reward, cheap option. Corey Hart could fill that role and provide much-needed pop. He has an injury history and might not be graceful in left field, but he is competent defensively and offers a lot on offense.

If the Giants want a cheap, high-reward option, Hart would be a good fit. If they want to dish out more cash, they could sign Nelson Cruz, whose contract could be reasonable because of his PED suspension. Cruz, who has posted a slugging percentage better than .500 in five of his last six years, would provide power and be a perfect offensive fit.

Even if the Giants don’t sign a hitter, they can trade for one. Or, they could trade Pablo Sandoval.

At first, it doesn’t seem to make sense that the Giants would trade one of their best hitters to improve their offense. However, it makes more sense if you dig deeper.

They would have to risk an uprising in San Francisco, but it might be for the best. Sandoval is entering the final year of his contract, and patience is wearing thin with the third baseman. He is constantly out of shape, and, quite frankly, is overrated.

But because of his three-homer game in the World Series, Sandoval is known as a clutch hitter who, when on, is one of the best in the game. That means his trade value is high, and that means the Giants could get a good deal for him.

If they were to trade for a good long-term option in left field, like Alex Gordon, they could insert Joaquin Arias at third base and wait for third-base prospect Adam Duvall to come up. Arias isn’t a flashy option, but he is much more competent than Blanco (who would start in left field if the Giants get no one else) and having a solid left fielder long term would definitely trump having Sandoval short term.

The possibility of a deal makes sense for the Giants, but, unfortunately for the team, it won’t happen. The possibility of dealing a prospect for a big bat also makes sense, as the Giants have a wealth of quality arms in the farm and can afford to lose one.

However, as we all know, Sabean has tried that before. He traded Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran in 2011, and that didn‘t pay off. So, the conservative general manager likely won’t make any kind of big trade.

In other words, the Giants won’t make a huge splash this offseason.

The Giants won titles with pitching, but this scenario is different. The Dodgers are a great team, and if the Giants don’t make a big deal, they aren’t going to contend. 2013 was supposed to teach that to Sabean, but apparently, it hasn’t.

And because of that, the Giants will likely fill out a strong pitching staff and bullpen but leave the offense the same. Consequently, the team likely will be good but have a difficult time bringing home another World Series trophy.

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To listen to the roar of criticism that followed Tim Lincecum‘s two-year, $35 million contract extension with the San Francisco Giants, you’d think Brian Sabean had decided to re-sign Aaron Rowand, Barry Zito and Alex Rodriguez in the same stroke.

Cliff Corcoran of SI.com writes, “There is almost no chance that the Giants get their money’s worth from [the contract].“

Grant Brisbee of the McCovey Chronicles agrees. “This deal is two parts warm fuzzies, one part leap of faith.”

The overwhelming consensus among Giants fans and media pundits is that this deal is a thank-you card for several excellent years of service.

To be sure, Lincecum has struggled. His combined ERA the last two years is a bloated 4.76, converting to an ERA+ of 72—tied for the worst among qualifying pitchers in that stretch (with Zito, ironically), as per Baseball-Reference.com. His fastball is down from 92.2 mph in 2011 to 90.2 mph in 2013, and his command has faltered as well, as per FanGraphs.

So wouldn’t it be best for the Giants to spend that $35 million elsewhere?

Wrong.  

Forget the massive boost in sales of tickets, jerseys and garlic fries that Lincecum provides. We’re talking about a 29-year-old pitcher with two rings and a pair of Cy Young Awards to match.

Lincecum’s lifetime ERA is 3.46, and he has a 9.6 K/9 ratio. Even with the two horrible years (particularly 2012), we’re talking about a franchise player with more upside (by a mile) than any other pitcher currently on the market.

It’s not like the Giants’ system is stacked with pitching prospects, either. Eric Surkamp? Yusmeiro Petit? I’ll take The Freak any day.

Also, Lincecum made significant improvements from 2012 to 2013.

In 2013, he lowered his ERA from 5.18 to a much more respectable 4.37. He also lowered his WHIP from 1.47 to 1.32. That might not be worth $17.5 million, but it’s easy to imagine him continuing his rebound in 2014.

The strikeouts are still there, too. Lincecum has been over 190 punchouts every year since his rookie season.

His main problem has been home runs. His HR/9 ratio last year was 1.0, compared to 0.6 in 2011. If he makes a slight mechanical adjustment to locate his fastball better in the lower half of the zone, he could be back to an All-Star level.

His no-hitter in 2013 proves that his ceiling is as high as anyone.

Now imagine this.

The Giants pass on Lincecum’s contract, instead signing Bronson Arroyo or someone similar. The Los Angeles Dodgers, seeking another righty to bolster an already stacked rotation, snag him for $30 million over 2 years or thereabouts.

Lincecum returns to quality form and helps the Dodgers cruise to an easy NL West victory. Arroyo goes 8-11 with, say, a 4.22 ERA. The Giants finish fourth in the West.

Sabean wasn’t willing to risk that happening, and he made the right call. Giants fans call Lincecum The Freak for a reason—he always surprises us. 

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The San Francisco Giants aren’t wasting any time this offseason, already filling two of three potential holes in a starting rotation that has been amongst the best in baseball for years.

Tim Lincecum was re-signed to a two-year, $35 million deal last month, while three-time All-Star Tim Hudson agreed to a two-year, $23 million deal on Monday. Two down, one to go?  

Despite having a handful of in-house options to compete for the No. 5 spot in the rotation, including Yusmeiro Petit, who pitched well in seven late-season starts in 2013 (3.59 ERA, 42.2 IP, 40 H, 11 BB, 40 K), and Eric Surkamp (2.80 ERA in 16 starts between Triple-A and Double-A), the Giants might not be done adding starting pitching. 

And if Josh Johnson has his way, he could be the last piece to the rotation puzzle. According to Hank Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, the 29-year-old has let the Giants and the San Diego Padres know that they are his first choices to be his next team. 

Not only are the two teams a short plane ride away from his Las Vegas home, Johnson’s need to rebuild his value after a disappointing 2013 season makes each team an ideal fit because of their respective pitcher-friendly ballparks. 

After establishing himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game while with the Marlins, posting a 39-13 record with a 2.80 ERA, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in an 84-start span from 2008 until early-2011, Johnson suffered a shoulder injury that cut his 2011 season short.

When he returned in 2012, he wasn’t as dominant as in years past, although he did manage to post a 3.81 ERA with 3.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 31 starts. Traded to Toronto last offseason, he showed signs of his old self but never fully got back on track as he spent two separate stints on the disabled list and finished the season with a 6.20 ERA in only 16 starts, including six with at least five earned runs allowed. 

Now three seasons removed from his shoulder troubles, teams could see Johnson as a great “buy low” candidate with tremendous upside, especially a team like the Giants, who have already committed close to $53 million in salary to their top four starting pitchers in 2014, according to MLBDepthCharts, and might not want to add too much more. 

Adding a former ace in the prime of his career at a price anywhere south of $10 million for a season in which he’s motivated by the potential of a huge payday the following offseason could be a terrific investment. When a big market team like the Giants can pencil that former ace into the No. 5 spot of their rotation, where his potential inability to rebound wouldn’t have a major impact on the team, it’s also a pretty safe investment. 

Johnson’s lone start at AT&T Park in 2013 was one of his best of the season as he tossed seven strong innings, allowing just one earned run on six hits with no walks and six strikeouts. In five career starts against San Francisco at their home ballpark, Johnson has a 2.65 ERA with eight walks and 26 strikeouts in 34 innings pitched. 

The ballpark he was pitching in wasn’t the reason that he could no longer get batters out. But a home park that he feels comfortable in—mostly because balls don’t fly out of AT&T Park and pitches thrown out over the heart of the plate are less likely to be hit over the right field wall—could do wonders for his confidence level. 

In his potential rotation-mates in San Francisco, Johnson could find much in common and, maybe more importantly, much to learn from one of the most successful groups of starters currently assembled.

Staff ace Matt Cain will also be trying to rebound from a poor season, at least by his standards, while Lincecum will be able to share his knowledge on how he finally got back on track after a year-and-a-half of struggles. Hudson, who is also returning from a season-ending injury in 2013, has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball since entering the league in 1999.

If Johnson can at least pitch as well as he did over a nine-start span from April 16 through July 9 (3.74 ERA, 53 IP, 53 H, 18 BB, 53 K; four starts with at least 7 IP and no more than 2 ER allowed), he’d be a great value. If it all comes together again for the 6-foot-7 right-hander, though, and he regains the form of his days with the Florida Marlins, whichever team signs him could have the free agent bargain of the offseason. 

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Tim Hudson‘s 2013 season with the Atlanta Braves ended with a gruesome ankle injury, but that didn’t stop the San Francisco Giants from signing the free agent to a two year, $23 million deal this week.

He’ll step into Barry Zito’s slot, replacing his old teammate on the payroll, but can the Giants really expect Hudson to come back from such a dramatic injury and solidify the rotation behind Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner?

Hudson’s ankle injury was one of the toughest to watch in recent memory. Covering first base, he was accidentally stepped on, fracturing the fibula and spraining one of the significant ligaments of the ankle. Those were repaired surgically in late July with the pin fixating the fibula. The pin was removed earlier in November. That removal is a very good indication of his progress.

In congruence with that removal, it appears Hudson is on pace to have a normal spring (h/t to Alex Pavlovic of The Mercury News):

Things are going to plan. 

“The ankle’s coming along just fine, not quite 100 percent right now but it’s well on its way,” Hudson said in a news conference Tuesday, as reported by the Associated Press. “I anticipate in the next month or so start throwing bullpens.”

While the injury was dramatic, the rehab has been typically boring. Bones heal normally and predictably and can easily be monitored. Speaking to sources with knowledge of Hudson’s injury and rehab, Hudson is still relatively early in the rehab process. Due to the timing of the injury, Hudson has been able to essentially do nothing but rest and heal up to this point. I’m told he has done very light rehab and cardio work with the expectation that he would be able to have a normal offseason schedule leading up to next season. 

Hudson, 38, and his agents likely considered more than just money when it came to signing with the Giants. The Giants medical staff, led by Dave Groeschner, has been one of the best of the last decade. Over the last three years, it ranks a bit down from their historical norms. According to my proprietary database, the Giants rank 13th in baseball from 2011-2013 based on days lost to injury. The Braves were ranked 18th over the same period. 

There are no good comparable players for Hudson in terms of this injury. The unique nature of the injury makes it tough to find anything comparable, which is good. Hudson’s injury was to his right (push) ankle, which could cause some issue with force generation. However, the ankle is expected to be stable, which should mitigate any real issues. Hudson’s velocity has trended downward, so he may not have much margin for error if he does lose more to injury and time.

So what can we expect from Hudson’s move back to the Bay Area? One of the most accurate projection engines, Steamer, has Hudson roughly matching his stats from the past two seasons. Remember that in 2012 Hudson was returning from Tommy John surgery; even with his age going up, it’s not unthinkable that a healthy Hudson could exceed these expectations.

I also don’t believe this projection adjusts for AT&T Park, which plays slightly more pitcher-friendly than Turner Field. Current estimates have a win above replacement (WAR) costing just over $7 million. The Giants would gladly take a two-win season, even if it’s overpaying a little for the privilege.

The details of the deal have yet to be released, but there are likely incentives included. Those could be safety nets like innings-pitched bonuses that would be proxies for Hudson’s health and effectiveness. There is also sure to be a “pending physical” in there that would allow the Giants to back out if something unexpected is found. That would be unusual since Hudson’s situation is well-known and he is likely to have submitted to more tests, if not a hands-on examination. 

Hudson should fit well in the rotation and the team. He’s familiar with the Bay Area and the media, so there should be little adjustment in that regard. Dave Righetti is a relatively hands-off pitching coach and Hudson isn’t someone who needs hand-holding or regular work on his mechanics. From a medical standpoint, there is some risk, but I believe both Hudson and the Giants are well-equipped to deal with it. 

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