Kuzul

Jayson Werth’s free agency and impending contract is one of the hot topics in Philadelphia these days. Recently, Werth’s agent Scott Boras (maybe you’ve heard of him) was on talk radio and had the following to say about his client and his time in Philadelphia:

“I think, hitting in the fifth spot in Philadelphia is very difficult. To have the people behind you, certainly [Ryan] Howard and [Chase] Utley enjoyed having Jayson behind them. It’s hard to score a lot of runs. When you’re scoring 100 runs from the fifth spot, you’ve done something pretty unique.

“For a guy with great speed and stolen base efficiency—over the last five or six years, it’s one of the best in baseball—you’re talking about a situation for him where he’s performed very, very well offensively and frankly had very good production numbers even though he’s hitting in the fifth hole.”

So, granted, Boras is just trying to create value for his client. And yes, it’s clearly harder to score 100 runs from the five-hole than it is from the one-to-four holes, but in what universe is doing that in Philly harder than anywhere else in the National League?

Obviously, a lot of guys had off years, but isn’t “American League-like” an adjective often used to describe the Phillies lineup?

What other NL team has a Carlos Ruiz type in the eight-hole? Are we missing something?

At the end of the day, is this a truth about Philly? Or is this just Boras being Boras?

On the one hand, it would be easy to say his point is that although hitting in Philly’s fifth spot is better than most NL fifth spots, it is still not the third spot (where Boras thinks he would normally be hitting). So he’s arguing that because Utley and Howard were in front of him, he was really unable to truly showcase his three-hole talent (speed). Yet he still scored 100 runs, which is impressive.

Basically, he’s arguing that Utley and Howard have inflated runs numbers (particularly Utley) while Werth scores less runs than he should due to his slot in the order. So imagine what he’d score hitting third! He’s trying to counter the impression that Werth has inflated numbers due to the Phillies’ “AL lineup,” etc.

It does work a bit with the runs argument, but the alternate argument is that he should be knocking in 100 RBI in his sleep with those guys ahead of him.

But let’s go deeper.

In one sense, he actually does have a very good point (as much as I hate to admit that).

The natural trend in baseball is that hitters perform better with more men on base, and they perform better the further along the basepaths they are.

Thus, a hitter’s batting average should be higher with a man on first than with the bases empty, and higher still with a man on second, etc.

Now Philadelphia has two guys in Chase Utley and Ryan Howard who have a tendency to clear the bases.  Hitting fifth behind Ryan Howard—who regularly leads the league in RBI and hits tons of home runs, but also strikes out a ton—is going create a lot of bases-empty plate appearances. In the alternative, it will create a lot of two-out plate appearances for Jayson Werth.

Consider this: Jayson Werth batted in the first inning 67 times in 2010 (which strikes me as high for a five spot hitter), which in all likelihood were at-bats where there was at least one out and probably two outs.  Mix in the fact that there are likely men on base AND outs if the five spot hitter is batting in the first, and we all know how well Werth does in those situations.

In those 67 at-bats, Werth hit .094 with a .413 OPS and one home run with 10 RBI.

That’s just one example.

The irony, of course, is that this doesn’t necessarily hold up, because…anyone?

Given what we know about Jayson Werth’s hitting with runners in scoring position (appalling) compared to his hitting with the bases empty (wonderful), he goes against the trend in baseball, and really Werth wants to hit without guys getting on base ahead of him. He wants Utley and Howard to clear the bases. He wants Howard to strikeout or hit home runs.

So, really, when Scott Boras says that hitting fifth is difficult in Philadelphia, what he is really saying is “Jayson Werth has a hard time hitting in Philadelphia because the guys ahead of him get on base so damned much. If the hitters hitting ahead of him were less talented, and he had more bases empty plate appearances, his performance would go through the roof.”

Or something.

At the end of the day, Scott Boras is only interested in overstating Jayson Werth’s value to get some team to pay way too much money for him.

The fact that he makes a relevant point on the way to that is, suffice to say, a coincidence.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

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Via Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk:

On Friday, Jerry Crasnick tweeted that Jayson Werth has parted ways with agent Jeff Borris.  Werth was cagey about it when asked over the weekend, denying that he has left Borris and Beverly Hills Sports council.  That’s likely a matter of semantics, however, because Crasnick’s source says Werth is “shopping” for new representation. I’m hearing the same thing.

What else I’m hearing: the front-runner is Scott Boras, with whom Werth is “way down the road,” according to my sources, and it’s looking like he will sign with him.

This is bad news for Yankee fans hoping that they sign Werth this off-season. The Yankees do have a history of signing Boras clients, but that was more back in the day when The Boss was in charge.

Lately, Brian Cashman and company have not have as much success when dealing with Boras. It started when Alex Rodriguez opted out of his last contract with the Yankees, and of course there was last off-season and the whole Johnny Damon debacle.

Dealing with Boras also means that the Yankees would have to pay top dollar for Werth’s services. It was certainly possible the Yankees would have tried to go after Werth this off-season, but not if he’s likely to demand upwards of $20 million per season ,and will probably ask for at least seven years.

Many of you might be saying, so what, it’s only money and the Yankees have an unlimited supply. Even if that were true, it isn’t, they still have an attractive option in Brett Gardner at a much cheaper price.

If Werth signs on with Boras, it all but closes the door on the possibility that he will end up in pinstripes.

Related Stories

• March 28, 2010—Best of the Week from the Yankees Blogosphere
• March 27, 2010—Hit and Run: Jayson Werth, Another Cut, Rings, and Feds
• February 28, 2010—Best from Around the Yankees Blogosphere
• January 28, 2010—Damon and the Yankees: A Timeline

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Alex Rodriguez has left the man who negotiated his 10-year, $275 million contract.

Rodriguez is not expected to replace Scott Boras with Pittsburgh attorney Jay Reisinger and Washington lawyer Jim Sharp, who helped him with his legal affairs.

Reisinger was the one who negotiated Rodriguez’s ordeal with Congress for performance-enhancing drugs. Reisinger also represented Sammy Sosa and Andy Pettitte in their trials.

Rodriguez was seen with Guy Oseary, a Hollywood agent, who has been seen with Rodriguez over the past week. When sources called the offices of Oseary, they were only willing to call him a “manager”, not an agent. Oseary was referred to A-Rod by Madonna.

Boras had been with A-Rod since the start of his career as a high-school student out of Miami. Boras has been responsible for the more than $500 million in contract deals. Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers with a $252 million dollar, 10 year contract. A-Rod has signed with the Rangers and Yankees for a total of 20-years.

It is not expected that Alex Rodriguez will need an agent while his 10-year deal comes to a close when Rodriguez is 42 (currently the age of 35).

Rodriguez is continuing a great season of work, compiling a .265 average, with 21 homers and 97 RBI. A-Rod also produced his 600th home run of his career, reaching a baseball milestone. Alex Rodriguez is currently on the disabled list with a calf strain. He is expected to come back on Sunday.

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Nothing to worry about Washington Nationals fans, this will get done, although it may come down to the deadline before it is announced.

The posturing that is going on between the overall No. 1 pick in MLB‘s first year player draft and the team that picked him is simply normal negotiation ploys by both sides. Believe me, the kid will sign when all is said and done.

Harper, 17, has until Monday at midnight ET to agree to terms on a contract. But it is not alarming to assume that Harper’s adviser, the infamous Scott Boras, will not crack until he is forced to. To give in now would be akin to blasphemy in the high stakes poker world of the business in which Boras deals in.

For this isn’t just about Harper; it is about Boras’ reputation and his credibility with future clients.

Here’s hoping that cooler heads prevail and the kid comes to his senses and doesn’t let the Boras ego deter him from starting his professional career.

Stephen Strasbug had some pointed words foir Harper: “If he doesn’t want to play here, then we don’t want him here.”

Of course, he should talk, as Strasburg didn’t sign until the last minute himself!

Look, if Harper doesn’t sign, he will re-enter the draft pool in 2011. Not only is that draft class shaping up to be a much stronger one than the 2010 class, what if the kid gets hurt? Is that risk worth a few extra dollars in the long run?

Maybe to Boras, who isn’t necessarily looking after the long-term best interests of Harper, but has to consider what is best for future recruitment business.

Why the optimism that Harper will sign?

Well, it is based largely on common sense as well as a strong feeling among baseball executives and scouting directors that I’ve spoke to that Harper is sure to sign before the deadline.

Harper’s performance isn’t likely to match what he did last season at Southern Nevada, so he won’t improve his leverage by returning to the Scenic West Athletic Conference.

Plus, Boras and Nats GM Mike Rizzo have worked well together in the past.

While Rizzo was with Arizona, he drafted and signed several Boras clients and went through the Stephen Strasburg negotiations just last August.

Meanwhile, 17 players remain unsigned from the first round of the 2010 draft, so Harper’s situation may be more newsworthy but it is certainly not unique.

It’s a game of chicken but it’s the kids that often get plucked in the long run if they do not sign.

Harper, for example, would be missing out on valuable development time and a possibly quicker path to the majors if he goes back to school.

So, in the end, both sides need each other and that is the motivation that will seal the deal.

Another potential wrinkle in these negotiations, however, is all the buzz going around about changing the drafting process in the next collective bargaining agreement to a more rigid slotting system similar to the ones used in the NBA and NHL.

Still, the Nats will likely move closer to the $10-11 million bonus range that many expect, while Harper will eventually show his hand that he really wants badly to start his career.

Regardless of whether or not people agree that Harper will sign, there is no disagreement over Harper’s projected future stardom.

Once he signs, that is.

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The Boston Red Sox entered Monday’s 2010 First-Year Player Draft with three of the top 50 overall picks, and according to MLB Network analysts and other draft authorities, Theo Epstein & Co. acquired both some excellent collegiate talent and at least one potential headache.

After signing Type-A free agents John Lackey and Marco Scutaro, the Red Sox surrendered the 29th and 34th overall picks to the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays, respectively.

However, by offering arbitration to reliever Billy Wagner and outfielder Jason Bay, the Red Sox actually leapfrogged in the draft selection and acquired the 20th, 36th, and 39th overall picks.

Round 1: 20th Overall Pick

In the First Round—utilizing the 20th overall pick they earned when Type-A free agent and former Mets closer Billy Wagner signed with the Atlanta Braves—the Red Sox selected Ball State standout Kolbrin Vitek.

A second baseman, the Ohio-born Vitek bats right and is listed at 6’3”, 195 lbs. According to MLB Network’s Peter Gammons, the Sox plan to convert the potentially powerful Vitek into a third baseman—a position the Sox clearly needed to address looking beyond Adrian Beltre.

Known for near “perfect fundamentals” and a “great natural swing,” Vitek could round out an impressive Red Sox infield of the future should he live up to his potential and team up with Jose Iglesias, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis within the next few years.

In three years at Muncie’s Ball State, Vitek has batted .359 with 35 homers in 569 at bats. His .664 slugging percentage and .440 on-base percentage suggest that Vitek could become a patient and potentially powerful slugger.

Although he has pitched to the tune of a 4.71 ERA and a 13-8 record, Vitek does not project as a gunslinger at the professional level.

Sandwich Round: 36th Overall Pick

In the Sandwich—or Supplemental—Round of the 2010 First-Year Player Draft, the Red Sox picked twice, first at 36 overall.

With the 36th pick—acquired as compensation for the New York Mets’ signing of Jason Bay—the Red Sox selected Tennessee-native Bryce Brentz, who was ironically heavily scouted by none other than the Mets.

At 6’1” and 185 lbs, this Middle Tennessee State University outfielder projects with decent power, driven mainly by what MLB Network calls his “strong lower body.”

Originally drafted out of South Doyle High School by the Cleveland Indians during the 30th Round of the 2007 First-Year Player Draft, Brentz has hit .348 with a .636 slugging percentage and a .440 on-base percentage this year.

With similar numbers to those of Kolbrin Vitek, Brentz and his selection start to paint a picture of a 2010 Red Sox organization intent on drafting some high-upside power hitting.

Sandwich Round: 39th Overall Pick

When the Atlanta Braves signed Billy Wagner, the Red Sox actually earned not just the 20th but also the 39th overall pick as compensation. That’s not a bad haul when one considers that the Red Sox merely sent journeyman outfielder Chris Carter to New York to acquire Wagner in what amounted to an ill-timed salary dump for the Metropolitans.

As the 39th pick arrived, the Red Sox must have counted both their blessings and pennies when they realized that former top-ranked pitcher and current Scott Boras client Anthony Renaudo remained on the board.

At one point, the towering Renaudo—he’s 6’7” and 230 lbs—was regarded as the best pitcher at the college level and was originally drafted by the Texas Rangers in the 11th Round of the 2007 First-Year Player Draft.

Renaudo remained so ranked until an elbow injury and a series of dramatically poor performances saw his standing plummet and his scouting reports grow increasingly uncertain.

Realizing that the previously dominant LSU hurler could fall significantly during this draft, Theo Epstein himself flew out to see him pitch, according to Gammons.

Should he regain his once unhittable form, Renaudo could prove a sagacious steal for the Red Sox’ front office.

However, Renaudo is represented by Scott Boras, and Boras may not be willing to accept 39th pick money for his slightly diminished client. Hammering out a deal could be tough if Boras and Epstein butt heads.

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James Paxton is by all accounts a great prospect. So great, in fact, that the Toronto Blue Jays plucked the Canadian lefty with the 37th pick in last year’s Amateur Draft.

Enter Scott Boras.

Boras is a man who provokes extremes in those he brushes up against. For clients he’s literally money. To owners and cheapskates (who are not mutually exclusive), he’s Gordon Gekko with a baseball.

When Boras added himself to the Blue Jays-Paxton equation last year, trouble brewed. As Paxton’s “advisor” of sorts, the Jays failed to meet Paxton’s asking price despite allocating the pitcher $873,000, the MLB’s recommended signing bonus. With his refusal, Paxton aimed to return to campus at the University of Kentucky and play for the baseball team.

Toronto’s president, Paul Beeston, in response, made a few remarks to The Globe and Mail about the NCAA’s no agent rule. Whether or not Paxton violated those rules by hanging around with Boras is uncertain. A series of circumstances and rulings (described in full in the link) eventually lead Paxton to play for the Grand Prairie Air Hogs this year. It is there he awaits this season’s Amateur Draft for another suitor to claim him.

What ensued between Beeston, Boras, and Paxton seems to stem from Beeston’s comment to the media. It was the catalyst that found Paxton barred from Kentucky and NCAA competition. If purposely done, it’s also quite petty.

The relationship between Beeston and Boras goes back 25 years. While executive vice president of the Toronto Blue Jays, Beeston was party to Boras’ first multi-millon dollar contract; for relief pitcher Bill Caudill, a former teammate of Boras .

While he signed for five years, Caudill broke down in two and a half. In 1986, Caudill’s last season with Toronto, he pitched only 36.1 innings with an ERA of 6.19. His salary for that season: $1.5 million, making him the highest-paid Blue Jay. The next closest was Dave Stieb for $1 million.

Boras negotiated a sweet deal for a friend who was on his way out, at the expense of Beeston and the Blue Jays. The Jays released Caudill the following season and let Oakland pick up the tab. Also, in what is clearly a coincidence, Toronto has zero Boras clients on its roster.

Skip forward to 1997. Beeston is now president and chief operating officer of Major League Baseball. A prospect named J.D. Drew and his agent, Scott Boras, are demanding $10 million to sign with Philadelphia. The team declines and Drew goes to play for the independent St. Paul Saints.

This touches off a debate over Drew’s status, as either a potential draft pick or free agent. As president of MLB, Beeston had to have been involved in such a trying process; which is relatable to Paxton’s current predicament.

Now these are tenuous links between Beeston and Boras, but the Blue Jays’ president has come into contact with the superagent’s voodoo on several occasions.

So, with all things considered, is it possible that Beeston used the dealings with Paxton as a way of delivering a jab at Boras? And, if that’s the case, are the Blue Jays compromising their team by restricting their dealings with someone who has so much sway over premiere players?

The answer to both questions is most likely no. But it is fun to imagine Beeston pursuing a form of vigilante justice with every Amateur Draft.

Paxton will probably become an early draft pick this year and earn the money he’s been pushing for. Scott Boras will take a percentage of it and the world will continue to turn.

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