Kuzul

Who was last season’s surprise team? Some may say the Giants for winning the World Series, and some may say the Rangers for making it to the World Series.

But in my opinion, without question…the Cincinnati Reds were THE biggest surprise in baseball last season.

After finishing fourth in the NL Central with a record of 78-84 in 2009, the Reds won the NL Central in 2010 with a record of 91-71. This was the team’s first winning record since 2000, and they won one of the toughest divisions in baseball.

How did this happen? I will say that the NL Central was a bit down last season in comparison to what they normally are. But the fact of the matter is, the Reds had a dominant offense, led by NL MVP Joey Votto.

Votto broke out onto the scene last year, leading the Reds in every major batting statistic (.324 BA, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 106 R, .424 OBP, .600 SLG, 1.024 OPS). A remarkable offensive season from a team that finished in the top-five in BA, R, OBP and SLG.

Let’s take a look at the Reds lineup and starting rotation heading into 2011:

C: Ramon Hernandez

1B: Joey Votto

2B: Brandon Phillips

3B: Scott Rolen

SS: Edgar Renteria

LF: Johnny Gomes

CF: Drew Stubbs

RF: Jay Bruce

SP: Edinson Volquez

SP: Bronson Arroyo

SP: Johnny Cueto

SP: Mike Leake

SP: Homer Bailey

CL: Francisco Cordero

How can the Reds improve their lineup from last season, try adding the 2010 World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. Although he is getting older, and production as an everyday player may be down, Renteria is as clutch as it gets in the playoffs.

The Reds still have Paul Janish in the starting SS slot going into spring training, but I expect Renteria to win the job, or at least take away a significant amount of starts from Janish this season.

The outfield for the Reds was one of the most productive in all of baseball last season, and Jay Bruce should have an even better year this season. Only 23 years old, Bruce has already had three consecutive 20 HR seasons, and his power should only improve over the course of his career.

There aren’t many questions about this Reds lineup, they are still one of the best in baseball. If anything this 2011 version will be improved with the added production of Renteria, and with Bruce and Stubbs both entering their second full seasons.

The Reds starting rotation appears to be the biggest weakness heading into this year, and it showed during their early exit in the playoffs. Being swept 3-0 by the Philadelphia Phillies, the Reds made playoff history.

They were the team that allowed Roy Halladay to throw only the second no-hitter in MLB playoff history, and the first since 1956.

That explosive offense was nowhere to be found, but I would consider the overall team’s lack of experience as the biggest contributing factor in the Reds disappointing postseason.

Cincinnati needs a big rebound year from Edinson Volquez, and his health and performance alone will determine just how good the Reds can be this season.

However, the Reds are still a very good team without Volquez. Bronson Arroyo is a productive No. 2 starter, but the key to this rotation is the depth and young talent this team has.

Cueto and Bailey are 24, Leake is 23 and all three of these pitchers proved last season that they belong.

I know there’s been a lot of much deserved hype in regards to the new Phillies rotation, but WHEN HEALTHY, I strongly believe that the Reds now have the second best rotation in the National League.

When you combine the two, you get a team that figures to be a lock for a playoff spot. But with injury concerns, more pressure on the young talent this season, and a much improved division…well, let’s just say… In regards to another Reds October.

The hunt is on.

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I have semi-randomly chosen to start with the Reds, and will write a piece about each of the thirty teams, talking about what they’ve done in the offseason up to this point and how that projects for the upcoming season. I know there are moves yet to be made, but with most of the impact moves in the books, I think enough has happened to be able to gauge expectations for the upcoming season. If they make any major moves in the coming days, I’ll amend this article.

I thought it might be fun to begin with the playoff teams from last year, then go on to the teams that finished in the basements of their division before finishing with the most exciting bunch—the teams who were/are/should be on the cusp of contention. So, we begin with Cincinnati.

A lot of people liked the Reds this time last year, myself included, but I think most of us were expecting them to contend for the wild card. The fact that they went on and won the NL Central was exciting for Cincinnatians and for baseball fans looking to witness some new blood in the playoffs. Their speedy defeat in October indicated two things: primarily, they couldn’t hang with the Phillies, as everyone except Kevin Millar seemed to think, and that perhaps the Reds have some work to do if they want to make a run at another playoff appearance.

Rotation: Improved

Their rotation is the part of the team that I thought was most overrated last year. Bronson Arroyo’s value comes mostly from his durability, but also partly from the fact that he can occasionally spin an ERA in the threes. If you look at his FIPs, he’s probably a 4.40 guy, but give him a good offense (and a little luck) and he becomes a 17-game winner. Edinson Volquez is a wildcard. He could strike out more than a batter per inning and will walk a guy about once every two innings. I like Johnny Cueto the best out of the Reds’ top three. He’s cut down on the walks and developed an effective cutter, but it remains to be seen whether he can put it all together for a solid 200+ IP campaign.

The team’s ace-in-waiting will start the season in the bullpen, and we have not seen how well Aroldis Chapman’s excellent stuff will translate to the rotation. I hesitate to crown him his generation’s Randy Johnson just yet. The other two spots in the rotation should go to some combination of Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, and Travis Wood. Homer Bailey seems to have been around forever, but his 2010 gives reason for optimism as he cut the walks, raised the strikeouts, increased the first-pitch strikes. He’s a hard-throwing groundball pitcher and has the natural ability to be successful in the big leagues. Leake struggled after a phenomenal start to his rookie season. He’s a soft-tosser who needs to keep the ball on the ground. Wood seems to have the best control of the three, and I think he gets a shot at starting unless he falls apart this Spring, if only because the Reds already have two or three lefties in their pen and none in their rotation.

I have to say the Reds rotation will be better in 2011 than it was in 2010, if nothing else, because Aaron Harang’s starts will go to one of three guys who each have the potential to be productive major league pitchers. Cueto, Arroyo, and Volquez combined for an ERA of 3.84 last season, and I would expect the trio to be around there again, maybe closer to 4.00. They will need to combine for more than 464 innings this time around though, otherwise undue strain will be placed on the other three, none of whom will probably be allowed anywhere near 200 IP. I expect a few starts for Chapman somewhere down the line, and I expect him to be good, but his value will primarily come from what he does in relief this season. The Reds will field a competitive rotation but they lack any real ace-caliber pitcher (Chapman excluded for now) and only have one guy I consider a lock for 200 IP.

Bullpen: Declined (slightly)

The Reds’ bullpen ranked in the middle out of all MLB teams in most categories (ERA, strikeouts, walks, HR), but shouldered a heavier workload than 21 of the teams. Their closer is a classic seventh-inning guy. Francisco Cordero (don’t ignore his lucky HR rate in 2009) had the second-lowest K/BB rate of any closer in baseball, and the K’s are falling by the year. Yes, he was decent, but the Reds have better pitchers for their toughest situations.

They have arguably lost their best reliever with Arthur Rhodes jumping ship for Texas, but they expect to be competent against lefty hitters with Chapman and Bill Bray. Matt Maloney is another lefty who will get a chance though he lacks the strikeout ability of Chapman and Bray. Maloney made two solid starts for the Reds in 2010 and it will be useful for them to have as many guys who can start a game on hand as possible. Nick Masset was their most-used reliever and he’s an essential component of their late-inning game plan. He gets tons of grounders and can strike guys out. Jose Arredondo will try to come back from Tommy John surgery and Logan Ondrusek was decent, but the latter benefited from a favorable BABIP-against and the it’s hard to know what to expect from the former. Jordan Smith and Sam LeCure were both solid for the team in 2010.

Assuming Ondrusek’s luck neutralizes, Cordero doesn’t turn in another 2009, and Chapman doesn’t post an ERA of 1.00, I don’t think this bullpen will improve on what it did last year. That said, I don’t see them being that much worse. There is some depth, some talent that will need to prove itself, and at least one guy who will start games someday will be working from the pen.

Catcher: Declined

The same catching team from last year returns in 2011. Ramon Hernandez’s 2010 BABIP was a good 35 points above his previous career-high, so he won’t hit .297 again. If he can stay healthy for more than 100 games for the first time as a Red, he could contribute 12 home runs and a league-average OBP. Considering where he’ll hit in their lineup, however, his batting average is more important than his OBP, and I’m projecting it to be around .260.

Ryan Hannigan does have more walks than strikeouts in his career (even if you get rid of the intentional ones) and he actually saw more pitches in the zone (47.7%) than the average major leaguer. Over a full season, he’d probably produce about what Hernandez could be expected to, but as long as he’s the team’s backup, I cant expect him to influence games as much as their starter does and I think Hernandez declines from his 2010 form. If pressed, I do think Hanigan is the better offensive player.

Corner Infielders: Neutral

Joey Votto and Scott Rolen make for one of the best corner infields in the game and both are coming back in 2011. Rolen is nearing his 36^th birthday and showed he can still hit (.285) and hit for power (20 HR), both of which are about what we should expect this season. Joey Votto deserved his MVP award but his HR/FB rate was 25%, which is insane. I would expect no more than, say, 32 home runs from him. He hit more home runs on the road last year, so I wouldn’t say his power came entirely from Great American Ballpark but there was some luck there. His BABIP was high too, at .361, but it always tends to be around there for him so I am not expecting it to fall precipitously as he plays his age-27 season. Clearly, he is still a tremendous hitter and will be great. In addition his defense is solid and he can steal bases (16 in 2010). Scott Rolen was outstanding in the field last year as usual.

Middle Infielders: Improved

I like Paul Janish better than Orlando Cabrera for several reasons. Firstly, the two showed very similar batting averages (.260 for Janish, .263 for Cabrera) but Janish did a much better job getting on base despite seeing more pitches in the zone. Secondly, Janish has more power, and though neither has much, Janish could potentially hit 10 HR or so if he lasts the whole season. Janish hits the ball in the air while Cabrera is a groundball machine. The Reds will replace a guy who got on base at a clip of just over .300 with a guy who will probably do an average job of it. Janish also comes much cheaper than Cabrera. Edgar Renteria could step in if Janish struggles but I wouldn’t necessarily call him an improvement. Brandon Phillips has more power than most middle infielders, which makes up for his iffy walk rate and steal success rate. If he had better plate discipline, he could be a star, but as it is he should contribute another .270/.330/.440 line or something like that. Because of his OBPs, he looks more like a number six hitter than a leadoff guy to me, so hopefully Drew Stubbs or someone else steps up and takes that role.

The Reds’ middle infield is not outstanding, but should be serviceable. They will probably struggle to hit .280 as a pair, but with the team’s corner infielders hitting for average, that shouldn’t matter. The entire infield is good with the glove.

Outfield: Slightly improved

Jay Bruce’s extension got a lot of press earlier this offseason and he should continue to develop over the coming years. His is the best bat in this outfield and he could make a run at 30 HR but his BABIP might have been a bit on the lucky side last year when he hit .281. Drew Stubbs strikes out too much, but he’s very fast and has good power and would make a good leadoff man if he improved his contact rate. Another 20 HR is very possible from him. Jonny Gomes has tons of power but wont hit above .270 either. He doesn’t know how to hit groundballs, so he is a perfect fit for that ballpark, even if his defense is awful. The same three guys make up the 2011 Reds outfield, and I could see Stubbs getting a little better while Gomes and Bruce do more or less what they did last year. I think the Reds did the right thing bringing these guys back, letting the youth develop, and if it goes as planned, they will build on their success in 2010.

Bench: Neutral

Fred Lewis is the new fourth-outfielder and he should easily out-hit the duo of Chris Dickerson and Jim Edmonds who struggled in 2010. His defensive range is limited but the small outfield in Cincinnati will suit him well. Chris Heisey will also see time in the outfield. As a 25-year-old rookie last year, he hit 8 home runs in about half a season while striking out too much. He’s a much better fielder than Lewis though and should get some playing time for that reason. Laynce Nix wasn’t going to repeat his .291 average from last year, and I probably would have chosen Lewis over him as well. Miguel Cairo brings defensive versatility back to the Reds’ infield for two more seasons, and Edgar Renteria is always capable of a good week at the plate.

I like the Reds’ bench mainly because they have a few guys who have played that role in the past and done it well enough. It’s hard to evaluate benches as they shouldn’t be expected to have enough playing time to really make a huge difference. I wouldn’t want any of their bench players starting for me on a regular basis, but that’s ok. What their bench lacks is pop, but they have every one of their starters spotted in case of injury. The interesting thing here is, if anyone (except their shortstop) gets hurt, the replacement is a pretty big step below talentwise. Therefore, if the Reds lose a regular player for the season, they’re going to be hard-pressed to replace him. Fortunately, theirs is a fairly deep lineup.

Lineup: The Reds’ lineup is arguably the most complete in their division. It lacks major holes, but could stand to improve in some ways. Its heart (Votto, Bruce, Rolen) is especially strong and is supplemented with talent preceding and following it. Like last season, they probably could stand for more production from the first and second spots. These guys sacrifice some genuine on-base skills for better-than-average power, playing to the ballpark they call home. The 2010 Reds hit more home runs than any non-AL East team, and they continue to be a group that lives and dies with the longball. The also strike out a lot and don’t draw walks with the best of them. Playing to their ballpark is not an unwise strategy, but these guys would be so much better with a couple of really good contact hitters in front of Votto, Rolen, and Bruce. Drew Stubbs remains the best candidate for leading off, and someone should work with him on drawing walks.

Expected win total: 84–89

I know that may seem kind of low. Last year’s 91-win club should have won 92 according to Bill James’ Pythagorean winning percentage. James’ formula doesn’t take over- or under-achieving players into account though. While I think the pitching is better as a whole, I am counting on it being less productive for them and thus the entire team being slightly worse off. In most cases, I’m expecting the Reds offense to be about as good or better than they were in 2010. The pitching is where I think they slightly overachieved, and I’m not ready to label Bailey or Wood the ace of the future just yet.

Their offense will need to score runs since all of their starters either can be beat or are relatively unproven. There is a lot of talent in that rotation, and the bullpen is competent, but there is no one that a good offense should fear having to face. I remain open to the possibility that a couple of these guys emerge and start winning games for them, and that will make the team that much stronger.

I see no way The Reds possibly regress to their pre-2010 form. They didn’t catch lightning in a bottle in 2010, they developed home-grown talent and it all came together for them. It wont fall apart that easily. The Reds should have no trouble posting a winning record again, but it remains to be seen whether the young guys develop further and how much they do so.

If you agree or disagree with what I’ve said, please let me know and say why. What do you think of the 2011 Cincinnati club?

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The season is almost over, bones and hearts have been broken, while arms and dreams have been restored.  We have come a long way since April, but for Cincinnati, the fun is only beginning. 

This 2010 edition of the Reds was picked by most to finish fourth or worse in the NL Central this year.  Not enough offense, not enough pitching, not enough experience, and on and on and on.

The Reds didn’t get the memo.

This team played spoiler all year long.  The Reds, who weren’t quite ready, showed early on they were here to stay.  Joey Votto had the best year of his young career and very well could end up with the NL MVP award.  He threatened for a triple crown and somehow, SOMEHOW, almost missed being an All-Star. (Charlie Manuel better hope Votto doesn’t hold a grudge.)

Rolen, Cabrera, Rhodes, Cairo, the Reds were too old, and wouldn’t be able to stay healthy.  Sorry wrong again.  Rolen and Rhodes were All-Stars, Cairo was clutch all year and Cabrera added stability at SS, which had been a revolving door of failed experiments since 11 left town.  These guys were winners, and the funny thing is, winners win. 

Phillips took heat for starting the Cardinal Clash by saying what we all were thinking, but he continued flashing that gold leather again all year.  He hit lead-off, hit second, hit fourth, Brandon did whatever Dusty needed.  Reds fans want to trade Phillips for his Ocho Cinco-ness, but ask the Reds’ starting rotation if they appreciate him being up the middle. Psst….I bet the say yes!

Hanigan, Ramon and Fu Manchu himself, Corky Miller were more than any of us could have hoped for behind the plate.  They all brought their big bats and were big behind the plate.  Those three guys have done wonders for this pitching staff all year. 

The outfield wowed us with their bats before the All-Star break.  Gomes was unstoppable, Stubbs ran on everyone, and no one ran on Jay Bruce.  Jay was under the gun.  Many said this was his put up or shut up year, very unfairly by my accounts, but Bruuuuuce put up in a big way.

You mean you didn’t hear?  Bruce crushed a walk-off home run to clinch the NL Central for Cincinnati.  I saw grown men do things I couldn’t have imagined.  They hugged, they cried, they rolled around on the beer stained, peanut littered concourse at Great American, all because Jay saved the day.

The pitching was great all year, Leake was too cool for the minors and pitched great.  Our favorite hamburger jingle writer, Arroyo won 17 games.  Travis Wood stood toe to toe with Roy Halladay.  The list goes on and on.

We have to give some credit to Dusty too.  The guy who couldn’t win with young players, the guy who burned up young arms.  He flipped the right switches all year and did something not one other Reds manager had done since 1995: make the playoffs.  So Dusty, even though we scratched our heads sometimes, here’s to you.

All that is nice, but will it matter?  Can Cincinnati make it a Reds October?  I believe in these guys, and I know they believe in each other.  I’m going to keep my Gomes-esque ski goggles ready for when these Cincinnati Reds crash the postseason party.

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The Cincinnati Reds are the 2010 NL Central division champions.
 
I’ll repeat: The Cincinnati Reds are the 2010 NL Central division champions.
 
Who in their right mind could have predicted this back in March? The Reds’ goal was to play over .500. Progress was the key.
 
Well, the team that never quits sped up the progress tenfold.
 
The offense led the NL in the most important categories for the vast majority of he season. The pitching staff is overloaded with above-average starters. The bullpen was up-and-down, but never let the team down in an important game.
 
GM Walt Jocketty has done an excellent job of blending young studs with wily veterans. Nobody liked the Scott Rolen trade at the time, but now it looks brilliant. His wisdom and leadership really lit a fuse under the losing mentality that had plagued the franchise for 15 years.
 
Since the trade, the Reds are 97-63 when Rolen starts.
 
The biggest reason for success is the leading candidate for the National League’s Most Valuable Player, Joey Votto, who has gone above and beyond all expectations placed on him this year.
 
He ranks second in the NL with a .325 batting average, third in home runs with 37, and third in RBI at 111. He has been a force in the middle of a potent lineup. He has played an excellent first base, possibly worthy of a Gold Glove.
 
Speaking of Gold Gloves, Brandon Phillips is in line for his second. He made his first All-Star team and has drank the hustle Kool-Aid. His numbers have fallen since hurting his wrist, but don’t be mistaken—he had a career year.
 
Johnny Gomes didn’t have a contract offer from any team until the day before spring training began. He lead the NL in RBI at one point in late May.
 
Miguel Cairo, Arthur Rhodes, and Orlando Cabrera were considered washed up, and now all three of them will play pivotal roles in October.
 
For the sixth time in seven years, and with five different teams, Cabrera will be going to the postseason. His ability to stabilize the shortstop position offensively has been a huge asset.
 
With the Reds’ rotation getting younger with Johnny Cueto, Travis Wood, Edinson Volquez, Homer Bailey, and Mike Leake, it was Bronson Arroyo who was old reliable.
 
Arroyo was a steady veteran presence that could be counted on to deliver every fifth day. He set a career high with 16 wins, and has pitched at least 200 innings every year as a Red. He is the No. 1 starter.
 
Mike Leake may have been shut down for the rest of this season, but his eight wins are nothing to sneeze at. He was the Reds’ best starter in the month of May.
 
Travis Wood almost threw a no-hitter against the defending NL champs in his third major league start. Incredible!
 
It’s hard to believe that Aaron Harang was the opening day starter back in the beginning of April. Sad to think that he won’t even make the 25-man playoff roster, but that’s another testament to how spectacular the pitching has been.
 
The beauty of the Reds is in their bench. Cabrera got hurt, Paul Janish stepped up, and the team didn’t miss a beat. Ditto with Chris Heisey.
 
The two-headed RH combo at catcher has kept both players fresh. Ramon Hernandez has hovered around .300 all season while playing stellar defense. When Hernandez gets hurt or Bronson Arroyo is starting, Ryan Hannigan steps in and puts up similar numbers.
 
Then there is the $30 million phenom.
 
Aroldis Chapman exploded onto the scene in September and will be a Red for at least the next five seasons. He may not have contributed a whole lot to the ’10 club, but Chapman will be a vital component for the playoffs and beyond. He is spoiled with winning already.
 
Then there’s Dusty Baker, one of only two managers to win a division title for three different National League teams; he seemingly pulled all the right strings for his club. He stuck with youngsters Jay Bruce, Nick Massett, and Drew Stubbs. He never called out a player or had a blowup caught on camera.
 
Don’t forget owner Bob Castellini. He famously said, “We are here to bring winning baseball back to Cincinnati” back when he took over in 2006. It may have taken a few years, but he made good on his promise.
 
The lost decade is over.  Nine straight losing seasons is history. The Reds are legit once again and are relevant to the rest of the nation. Cincinnati really is a “baseball town,” and record setting attendance in August proves it.
 
The entire 2010 Cincinnati Reds organization deserves credit.
 
It took a total team effort by everybody from the front office brass to the ball boy: The long-term vision from the top, the guts of the manger, the focus and superb talent of the players. Put it all together and you have one scrappy bunch of winners.
 
Congrats Reds, you did it.

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If someone had come up to me in April and said, “I bet the Cincinnati Reds will go to the World Series this year,” I would have laughed and made jokes at their expense for such an idiotic prediction.

That shows what I know.

Each month, many experts and fans have been waiting for the Reds to falter; to revert back to the losing ways they’ve mastered of over the past decade. Those experts are still waiting. Except now, it looks to be too late.

With a seven game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals as of September 5, and the best record in the National League thanks to the San Diego Padres’ recent plummet back into uncertainty, I think it’s safe to say that the Reds are all but in the playoffs for the first time since 1995.

The question is, how far can they go? Are they in for a Wild Card round exit? Or can they actually make a run?

Judging by the title, my opinion is they can make more than just a run, they can make it to the World Series, and possibly give the American League representative serious trouble. In fact, I think they’re the favorite to come out of the National League.

It would be foolish to solely mention the strengths of the team while completely avoiding their weaknesses, so let’s get that out of the way now. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that the Reds pitching isn’t the greatest.

As a team, their stats are average. Their best ranking in what I view as an important category come October, is save percentage, where they rank fourth in the National League. Typically, they are around seventh or eighth in the NL in virtually all categories. Not horrible, but certainly not a strength.

It’s no secret that pitching, specifically the bullpen, might be the most important characteristic of a championship contender. That’s why the Yankees have been so dominant behind Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer of this generation and probably ever, for the past 15 years. It’s rare to find a squad without at least an above average staff that wins the World Series.

For the Reds, their bullpen doesn’t have names that the casual fan would recognize. Nick Masset, Arthur Rhodes, and Francisco Cordero don’t jump off the page. However, they’ve become the centerpiece of a bullpen that’s usually effective. Masset and Rhodes each have a K/BB ratio of around 3, a WHIP under 1.25 (Rhodes’ is under 1), and average a strikeout per inning. Cordero, the closer, has been solid for years. Yes, he can be wild at times, but he’s effective.

There’s also a kid who’s been receiving massive attention the past week or so: Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. He’s appeared in three games, and has consistently thrown over 100-mph, reaching as high as 105. To go along with that, he’s got a Randy Johnson-like slider and comes from a deceptive angle which makes it even harder for hitters to pick up the ball. Talk about no chance. This guy is going to be what Francisco Rodriguez was for the Anaheim Angels back in 2002 and what David Price was for Tampa Bay two years ago.

Onto the starters, where again, there are no big names. They have a six pack of starters who could ultimately start in the playoffs. My bets would be on Bronson Arroyo (the only one with major playoff experience and their leader in wins with 14), Johnny Cueto (the only strikeout pitcher on the team), and Travis Wood (a young lefty who’s won five of his last seven starts). If Aaron Harang or Mike Leake recover from their respective injuries in time, Wood may go the bullpen or become the 4th starter.

Now onto the strengths. The Reds do one thing better than any NL team, and that’s hit. They lead the NL in team Batting Average, Runs Scored, and OPS. This helps make up for their deficiencies in pitching because the rotation can count on getting five runs a game to work with.

The individuals doing the mashing are little more well known than the pitching staff. Joey Votto made headlines during the All-Star break for leading the league in HR, but requiring a win in fan voting to make the team. He’s now become a serious MVP candidate (with an outside shot at winning the Triple Crown along with Albert Pujols), currently in the top 3 in HR, RBI, and BA (32-98-.321) and leading the league in OPS (1.013). If it weren’t for Pujols, he’d be the best first baseman in the National League.

The supporting cast is led by third-baseman Scott Rolen; Votto’s protection in the lineup. His numbers aren’t eye-popping: 19-78-.297, but he keeps pitchers from consistently walking Votto. Rolen’s also the one guy on the team who’s played a major role in winning a World Series when he did so with the Cardinals back in 2006.

As for everyone else, four other starters including Rolen and Votto are hitting above .260 (Orlando Cabrera, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, and Jonny Gomes), four other starters have over 15 HR (Bruce, Phillips, Drew Stubbs, and Gomes), and four have over ten steals (Stubbs, Cabrera, Votto, and Phillips, though not Rolen).

Pretty solid, right? That would be most teams biggest strength? Most teams would sell their souls to have an offense that potent.

Funny thing is, that’s NOT their biggest strength. That would be their fielding.

While the Reds have the best hitting team in the National League, their fielding is the best in all of baseball. As a team, they have the fewest errors and the best fielding percentage in the majors. No starter has more than ten errors (Orlando Cabrera, the team’s shortstop, has ten exactly) or a fielding percentage lower than .977.

Scott Rolen will most likely win another Gold Glove at third, and there are a few other players who have a chance at winning one. The catchers are also adequate at keeping runners from stealing.

This team just doesn’t throw the ball around. They don’t make stupid mistakes, which further benefits the pitching staff. Keep the ball in the park, and chances are the defense will have a chance to make the play. Keep the ball on the ground, and it’s a virtual certainty. When the stakes are at the highest level in the playoffs, being able to field the routine ground ball is monumental (just ask Cubs fans about Alex Gonzalez, the real goat in the Steve Bartman game).

Are the Reds the prohibitive favorite in the National League? Probably not. Do I think they deserve a better chance than people may be giving them? Absolutely.

The teams’ strengths are able to make up for their weakness, which are closer to being average than bad. If I were a playoff team, I would want absolutely nothing to do with the Reds come October.

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Are the Cincinnati Reds the best team in baseball?

Valid arguments could be made against it, but they are the hottest. Since the All-Star break they are 29-14, going 21-8 through the month of August, the best record in MLB.

They never give up, winning 19 games in their last at-bat. Don’t turn the TV off until the fat lady sings.

They are the youngest team with playoff aspirations, with an average age of younger than 28.

The Reds boast arguably the best player in the National League this year in first-baseman Joey Votto. In only his third full season in the majors Votto is among the top in virtually all offensive categories.

He is currently second to Carlos Gonzalez in BA at .325. He is third in HR with 32, and leads the league in RBI with 97. He is third in runs scored, first in OBP, second in SLG and first in OPS.

He has a legitimate shot at the Triple Crown, along with St. Louis first baseman Albert Pujols and Gonzalez.

The bench has probably been the strongest point for the Reds this season. When players have gone down with injuries or needed a day off, their subs have done a tremendous job.

Miguel Cairo has filled in at every infield position this season and the team did not miss a beat.  The same holds true for shortstop Paul Janish. Orlando Cabrera was stuck on the DL and Janish filled in as though he belonged at the big league level.

Rookies Chris Heisey and Chris Valaika have played important parts in backup roles as well.

They have played 10 rookies so far this season, and most have been sensational. Mike Leake began the season and pitched good enough to be under consideration for Rookie-of-the-Year.

Southpaw rookie Travis Wood flirted with a perfect game until the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Sam LeCure pitched so well during his first call-up that he is now the long man in the bullpen.

They have a very solid rotation, in Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Travis Wood, Homer Bailey and now Aaron Harang (if they don’t re-assign him to the pen).

Arroyo has been the workhorse of MLB the last few years, pitching over 200 innings five seasons consecutively. He now has 181 and is well on his way to the sixth season of 200 IP.

They have one of the best infields in all of baseball. Votto, Phillips, Cabrera and Scott Rolen have made plays all season that would fill a highlight reel.

The outfield is good but not great. Jonny Gomes is lacking in defensive skills but has power and is a good clutch hitter. Drew Stubbs is the fastest man on the team and an excellent defensive center fielder. He has power and should develop into a 30-30 player in a couple of years.

Jay Bruce is finally playing to the potential he possesses. He is arguably the best defensive right fielder in the National League, if not the entire MLB. He has awesome power and when he matures completely, I believe he can be a 40 home run man.

Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez have shared the catching duties all year. They both have done exceptionally well. Hernandez is batting close to .300 and is playing some of the best ball of his career.

Hanigan just won a game last night with a three-run shot in the upper deck.

The relief corps of the Reds has been bent a few times but refuses to be broken. Arthur Rhodes, 40, and Nick Masset have done a fabulous job in the setup role and Cordero has settled in and is now doing what he is paid to do – save games.

And last but not least, they possess the Cuban Missile. Rookie Aroldis Chapman has garnered so much attention in the baseball community due to the heat that he brings to the mound.

In this first appearance against the Milwaukee Brewers he pitched a perfect inning, with one strikeout and one pitch clocked at 103 mph. Of the eight pitches he threw, seven were strikes and at least three of them were arriving in triple digits.

So, are they the best team in baseball? I say yes.

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Times are changing and Twitter has quickly become a great source of sports information. Everyone from sports stars to professional sports writers to Internet-famed sports bloggers are writing daily. So TheFantasyFix.com decided it was time to host a roundtable discussion with the LADIES of TWITTER!

So here was the question:

As the conclusion of the 2010 Major League Baseball regular season approaches, we would like to identify those players who fell short of expectations (busts) and those who exceeded expectations (surprises).

Name one bust/surprise to this point of the 2010 season (describe their 2010) and state what you expect from them in the 2011 season. (rebound, maintain, regress etc..)

And away we go!…

Biggest Bust Of 2010: Jason Bay | LF | New York Mets

Jason Bay was a highly coveted free agent after the 2009 season. He was a three-time All-Star who had just hit .267 with 36 home runs and 119 RBI. With the exception of a .745 OPS in 2007, Bay had an OPS of near .900 or better every season from 2003-09.

As a result, the New York Mets rewarded him with one of the worst contracts in Major League Baseball—a four-year, $66 million deal that could top $80 million with a vesting option in the fifth year.

Bay will turn 32 in less than a month. His age, history of injuries (shoulder surgery in 2003 and arthroscopic knee surgery in 2006), and sub-par defense (lifetime UZR/150 of -7.8 in left field) should have deterred the Mets from offering such a lopsided contract. The Boston Red Sox’s best offer in retaining Bay was a four-year deal between $60 million and $65 million; they refused to include a fifth year.

Thus, with his monstrous contract and even higher expectations for on-field performance, Bay is the biggest bust of 2010. He has not played since suffering a concussion in July nor do the Mets expect him to come back before season’s end.

Not only was his fielding below average (-3.9 UZR/150), he struggled with swinging the bat. Bay was batting .259 with six home runs, 47 RBI, and an OPS of .749. He’ll most likely miss 40 percent of the season. The Mets clearly didn’t pay Bay an average of $16.5 million a year for him to play bad defense, hit an offensive wall, and then sit out with an injury.

Continue reading >>>>

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In Wednesday’s series finale with the San Francisco Giants, the Reds looked like they were going to beat them as if they stole something.

Joey Votto, Jonny Gomes, and Ryan Hanigan all homered to stake Homer Bailey to a 4-0 lead in the first inning. It looked like payback time for the boys from the Queen City.

Votto hit another homer in the third inning, his 31st of the season, to cap a four-run inning and the Reds were on top 8-1.

Adding one run in the fourth and another in the fifth gave the Reds what looked like a victory, with a 10-1 lead.

The Giants put up two in the fifth and chased Bailey in the sixth. He left the game leading 10-3 and handed the keys to Bill Bray with two on and one out. Bray allowed both to score, and suddenly it was a 10-5 game at the end of the sixth.

San Francisco jumped all over Logan Ondrusek in the bottom of the eighth. After he pitched a 1-2-3 seventh inning, he gave up singles to Jose Guillen and Pablo “Kung Fu Panda” Sandoval. Juan Uribe continued his hot hitting against the Reds with a three-run shot to left, making it a 10-8 game with nobody out.

Dusty Baker then made a triple switch. He brought in Arthur Rhodes to replace Ondrusek and brought in Jay Bruce to play right, moving Chris Heisey to left and sending Gomes to the bench.

In a performance that was probably due, Rhodes gave up what looked like the winning run, allowing three runs in one inning of work.

The Reds then scored a run in the top of the ninth to keep the game alive. Nick Masset shut the Giants down in the ninth to force the game into extra innings.

In the top of the 10th the Reds squelched a tremendous opportunity to score a run. With two outs, Scott Rolen doubled high off the left field wall and headed to second base. Cody Ross (why did we ever trade him?) played it off the wall like he worked there all year, and threw a strike to second.

Rolen attempted the worst slide I’ve seen in probably five years, looking like a deer caught in the headlights. He was out by several feet, so kudos to Ross on a beautiful defensive play.

Laynce Nix pinch-hit for Masset in the top of the 11th. He hit a slow roller to second base and pulled up lame after about three steps toward first. Don’t look for him for at least two weeks, as he could barely walk after the re-injury.

My boy (Okay, I have mellowed on him a little) Coco Cordero pitched the last two innings to notch the well-deserved win, since Votto had singled Miguel Cairo in with the game winner in the 12th.

Votto had four hits, Paul Janish had three, and Gomes and Rolen both had two, as the Reds pounded out 16 of them. Sadly, they were out-hit by the Giants 18-16.

In the three-game set, the Giants scored 39 runs and collected 55 hits against the worn-out Reds pitching staff.

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Tony Bennett left his heart in San Francisco. I hope the Cincinnati Reds have not left their confidence there.

Regardless of today’s outcome, the San Francisco Giants have shown some serious flaws in the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff.

In two games they have been outscored by the Giants 27-7 and have given up 35 hits in the 16 innings the Giants have batted.

In the first game of the series, Edinson Volquez did not get out of the first inning. He was pasted for five hits, five runs, and issued three free passes in only 2/3 of an inning.

Last night, one of the best pitchers on the staff was given a similar inhospitable greeting, as he allowed the Giants to put up a three spot in the first frame. Rookie southpaw Travis Wood managed to stay around for four innings after giving up seven runs and seven hits.

Two of the Reds’ starters who have been relegated to the bullpen didn’t do any better.

Mike Leake pitched one inning and gave up six runs, six hits and and two home runs, looking nothing like the ROY candidate he had been earlier in the season. It was his second terrible outing from the bullpen, making me wonder if he is going to work out in that role.

Fellow rookie Sam LeCure—who was just brought up from Louisville to fill the spot vacated by Jordan Smith’s departure—pitched the final three innings giving up five hits, three runs, including a homer.

Of the seven hurlers trotted out by the Reds in two games, only left-hander Bill Bray pitched scoreless ball.

If anyone wondered about the Giants being dead after losing a series to the St. Louis Cardinals, rest assured they are alive and well.

Brandon Phillips was 3-5 with two dingers as one of the few silver linings to the black cloud over their collective heads. Drew Stubbs added two hits and Scott Rolen hit his 19^th HR in the losing cause.

Rookie infielder Chris Valaika singled in his first MLB at bat after being called up from Louisville the same day.

The health of the Reds also took a hit as outfielder Laynce Nix twisted an ankle while running the bases, and Jim Edmonds had to go on the DL due to a strained oblique.

The Cardinals and ace Adam Wainwright were beaten by the forlorn Pittsburgh Pirates 4-3, leaving a 2.5 game gap between them and the division leading Reds.

Homer Bailey (3-2), impressive in his two starts since returning from the DL, will pitch in the final game of the series Wednesday afternoon. He will be facing southpaw Madison Bumgarner (5-4).

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Since the dreadful series against the St. Louis Cardinals, the Reds have reeled off six-straight wins, sweeping both the Florida Marlins and now the Arizona Diamondbacks.

In doing this, they have become the hottest team in the major leagues.

They are currently 19 games over .500 and have their biggest lead of the season in the National League’s Central Division.

They aren’t beating people with smoke and mirrors, but with old fashioned, hard-nosed baseball. They have played two suicide squeezes to perfection in the last few games.

Many people are calling for the head of Jonny Gomes, why?

Even with his less-than-stellar play recently, he is still third on the team in RBI, just two behind Scott Rolen at 66. His average with RISP is still fourth in the entire league. That is his job—drive in runs, not just get on base. Everyone knew he was a defensive liability from game one.

I have watched him get at least three infield hits in the last few weeks. He hustles every play (did you read that Brandon?).

Their are a couple of quaint sayings that certainly would apply here, right now.

First—if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Simple, but true and very self-explanatory. You don’t have to be Einstein or even His Holiness Bill James to figure that out.

Second—dance with the one who ‘brung’ you. An adage with some Appalachian vernacular for your reading enjoyment. If Sadie brought you to the dance, don’t go off dancing with the new girl because she is showing a little more cleavage.

Maybe the second is not as eloquent as the first, or even as understandable. The point remains the same: If the food is fit for a king, don’t switch cooks.

All year long the substitutes have come through remarkably well. When someone goes down, another man steps up.

Miguel Cairo has been so valuable stepping in for Rolen or Joey Votto when he needed a day off.

Paul Janish filled in so well for Orlando Cabrera that the “O.C.” may have difficulty getting his job back when he crawls off the shelf.

Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan have spelled each other behind the plate admirably. Hats off to Corky Miller while he was up in place of Hanigan earlier in the campaign.

I have fought all year long against Coco Cordero being lifted as a closer. It was actually to my delight that Dusty Baker pulled him from a game recently, while Nick Masset effectively cleaned up his mess.

The fact remains that Coco is still the closer and round and round we go.

I have to say that Baker and Walt Jocketty have done a tremendous job juggling the talent—especially the pitchers this season. I believe we have seven or eight starters here and at Louisville that could start for many other MLB teams.

Until the wheels start wobbling like they are about to give out, keep the course steady.

The Reds appear to have one of the best teams in the National League. Please don’t tinker with success.

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