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Just one season after finishing 31st in ERA, the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen has been one of the best in the majors in 2014.

Seattle’s relievers own a collective 2.49 ERA, trailing only the San Diego Padres for the top spot in the league. If they finish the year with that number, the Mariners will have posted the second-best bullpen ERA of any American League club in the designated hitter era, trailing only the 2.35 put up by the 1990 Oakland Athletics.

That impressive number includes a shaky start to the season, but Gary Hill of 710 ESPN points out Seattle has been just about untouchable since June 1.

ERA can be misleading at times, particularly for relievers, but the Mariners’ bullpen ranks first in the AL in FIP, xFIP and opponent’s average. A bit of regression is to be expected (and there has been some over the past week), but there’s no denying the group has put together a historic season.

So how did a terrible Seattle bullpen in 2013 rise so far in just one season?

Through a combination of drafting and previous deadline deals as sellers, the Mariners have amassed a collection of relievers who throw hard. Every member of the bullpen with the exception of lefties Joe Beimel and Charlie Furbush regularly touches the mid-90s or above.

Whether that’s something the organization specifically focuses on with relievers or if it’s just a reflection of a trend around the league, it’s contributed to the Mariners’ dominance.

Pitchers certainly don’t have to throw hard to be successful, but those who can hit the high-90s typically have more upside and strikeout potential. That’s reflected in the strikeout rate of 24.2 percent put up by Seattle’s bullpen, second in the AL to the New York Yankees.

With that much upside, the Mariners’ bullpen can go on some pretty incredible runs when everybody is clicking. Announcer Aaron Goldsmith highlights such a run earlier in August:

Some offseason additions and tweaks early in the season set the Mariners up well for their historic run. The team made two bullpen moves before spring training, adding veterans Beimel and Fernando Rodney to a relatively young group.

As frustrating as Rodney can be, he’s successfully solidified what was a shaky closer position in 2013. Locking down the back end has helped everything else slide into place, as manager Lloyd McClendon explained to Greg Johns of MLB.com.

“Everybody else was able to be slotted into the proper roles where they weren’t overexposed or overused. As a result, they’ve been fantastic. Now did I think they were going to be this good? This is historical type of stuff and I didn’t expect that. It’s been pretty special to watch.”    

The first big in-season move was to finally jettison Hector Noesi on April 3 and call up rookie Dominic Leone straight from Double-A. That left the Mariners without a typical long-relief or mop-up man, but they haven’t really needed one since the end of April.

Leone had far more upside and has rewarded the team for the decision. The 22-year-old has a 2.65 ERA (3.22 FIP) and is fifth among AL rookie relievers in strikeout rate.

The Seattle bullpen was already performing superbly by late June, but transitioning Brandon Maurer from the bullpen added another weapon to get the job done in any situation. Maurer looks like a completely different pitcher coming out of the bullpen and has allowed just five runs in 23.2 innings of relief.

A big factor in Seattle’s run has been that some of the returning faces have pitched to their full potential. In particular, Tom Wilhelmsen and Danny Farquhar have thrived in new roles after struggling to different degrees as closers in 2013.

Wilhelmsen has arguably been the most important member of the bullpen, as his versatility has provided tremendous value for the Mariners. He can be counted on in a critical late-game situation but has also been successful in longer outings of three or more innings and even made a spot start on July 10.

The key for Wilhelmsen has always been commanding his curveball, and he’s had a good feel for the pitch all season long. Wilhelmsen’s walks are down and his strikeouts are up, helping his ERA tumble nearly two points to 2.15 (3.73 FIP) in 2014.

Farquhar’s 1.86 FIP and 34.7 percent strikeout rate indicate he was unfortunate to have an ERA over four a year ago and his mark of 2.68 (2.43 FIP) in 2014 is far closer to his true talent level. FanGraphs indicated Farquhar is throwing his devastating cutter more often this season and is again striking out over 10 batters per nine innings.

Yoervis Medina has also improved his command from a year ago while shoring up some inconsistencies. Like Wilhelmsen, Medina’s been able to control his breaking pitches for much of the year and has decreased both his walk rate and ERA.

The member of the current bullpen who has struggled the most this season is Furbush, which seems like it would hurt the Mariners a lot more as he is one of only two left-handers available. However, Beimel (1.19 ERA, 3.35 FIP) has unexpectedly been able to pick up the slack, and Furbush has the fewest innings of any reliever (apart from Maurer) as a result. 

Credit must also go to McClendon for doing an outstanding job of managing the group. Fluid roles past the closer and an avoidance of overmanaging have helped the bullpen thrive.  

Finally, the Mariners’ strong starting rotation has helped the bullpen be successful. Seattle has tossed the third-fewest relief innings in the AL, keeping everyone available daily and fresh for the stretch run.

Seattle relievers don’t walk many (15.7 K-BB percentage, second in AL) and don’t allow many home runs (0.52 HR/9, first in AL). Those two numbers might be the most important indicators of success for a bullpen, so it’s not surprising to see the Mariners near the top in ERA.

The result is that McClendon can turn to a number of rested options who have proven themselves capable of shutting down the opponent in any situation. Beimel talked about the importance of such depth, via Johns of MLB.com.

“I’ve never been a part of a bullpen like this. Every single guy out there can get the job done, and that’s just fun to watch.”

A combination of potential, managing, a strong rotation and luck has helped Seattle relievers put up historic numbers. The Mariners’ rotation makes them dangerous in a potential postseason appearance, but a historic bullpen could be a huge factor in taking them there.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

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For the past several seasons, expanded September rosters have provided the Seattle Mariners with a chance to look toward the future.

Things are a little different in 2014. The Mariners are firmly in contention for a playoff spot, meaning they will be focusing on the present rather than giving playing time to prospects.

Still, the Mariners have a number of intriguing options in Triple-A Tacoma who could help the club down the stretch. General manager Jack Zduriencik did a good job of minimizing Seattle’s weaknesses at the trade deadline, but there are still a couple of holes that September call-ups could fill.

Familiar faces like Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero will be among those who join the team on September 1, but expect these three prospects to make their major league debuts during the month.

Ji-Man Choi, 1B

As he is currently on the 40-man roster, Ji-Man Choi is likely to get a shot in the majors next month. The 23-year-old has risen fast over the past three years and has advanced plate-approach skills that could potentially provide a boost off the bench.

Choi’s best skill is his discipline, as he has posted a walk rate of 11.5 percent or higher at every minor league level, while his strikeout rates have not exceeded 15 percent since 2012. After serving a 50-game suspension earlier in the year, Choi has hit .272/.362/.344 with Triple-A Tacoma.

While he doesn’t offer much in the way of home run power, Choi collected 34 doubles between two levels just a season ago. Choi’s ability to take walks and get extra-base hits will at least get him a look this September and could put him in the running for playing time at first base in 2015 until D.J. Peterson is ready.

Smoak and Montero will presumably be ahead of Choi on the depth chart, so he will probably be used sparingly off the bench. However, it might be worth giving Choi some starts at designated hitter just to see if he can provide any upgrade.

Kendrys Morales has been better over the past week but still owns just a .607 OPS since coming to Seattle on July 24. Choi showed only a slight platoon split in the minors, according to Minor League Central, so he could start to eat into Morales’ playing time against left-handed pitching should Morales begin to slump again.

Ty Kelly, INF

Kelly has had his second consecutive strong season at Triple-A Tacoma and should finally be rewarded for it on September 1.

With Willie Bloomquist out for the rest of the year due to arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, the Mariners are currently short on infield depth. Kelly has the versatility to replace Bloomquist on the bench, as he can play second and third base well, in addition to the outfield in an emergency.

Kelly’s bat might be able to provide something as well, as he hit .269/.389/.434 with 15 home runs at Triple-A Tacoma this season.

Choi is getting praise for his plate approach, but Kelly’s is arguably better. Kelly has a walk rate of 16.0 percent this season and has walked more than he’s struck out in 498 minor league games.

Kelly talked with Colin O’Keefe of Lookout Landing about his plate approach, which is certainly different than many others at his level, saying:

It all starts with a situation, and that can be your first at-bat of the game. You’ve never seen the guy and you want to see some pitches, and see what kind of off-speed pitches he has. There’s nothing worse than going into an at-bat, swinging at the first pitch and then your next at-bat you go up there and all you see there are two fastballs on the outside corner that you don’t swing at—and then throws his strikeout pitch and you have no idea what it looks like. You end up flailing at a slider in the dirt.

As a switch-hitter with patience and versatility, Kelly has all the tools to be a very useful bench player. Back on July 22, Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs projected Kelly to have the highest rest-of-season WAR among all prospects in baseball.

In second place on that list was Chris Taylor, who has put up 0.7 WAR in 21 games since being promoted.  

The only possible hurdle to Kelly’s promotion is that he’s not currently on the 40-man roster, but the Mariners have some flexibility. They could transfer Bloomquist or Corey Hart to the 60-day disabled list or designate a reliever for assignment if needed.

Kelly is obviously not going to start over Robinson Cano or Kyle Seager, but he’s exactly the kind of bench piece Seattle needs down the stretch.

Carson Smith, RP

Seattle’s bullpen doesn’t exactly need any upgrades, but just about every team across the majors will call up relief depth in September. The clear choice for the Mariners is right-hander Carson Smith, who has put up big numbers in the minors and looks ready for major league action.

After destroying Double-A in 2013, Smith has slowed down a bit, but he has still been impressive in Triple-A Tacoma. Smith has a 3.00 ERA (3.00 FIP) with exactly a strikeout per inning and nine saves this year.

Smith has an unconventional sidearm delivery that generates a ton of movement and makes it tough for right-handers, who posted just a .530 OPS against him in the minors, according to Minor League Central. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, and he has a plus slider and a changeup that is developing nicely.

There’s nobody in the Mariners’ bullpen who needs to be replaced, so Smith probably won’t be appearing in a lot of high-leverage situations. Still, more bullpen depth doesn’t hurt and Smith will be just another option with high upside for Lloyd McClendon to use in relief.

The only thing that could prevent Smith from reaching Seattle next month is his health, as he was recently shelved with a strained side, per Tacoma announcer Mike Curto. 

Smith only spent the minimum seven days on the disabled list, so the injury was not serious. 

If the Mariners are extra cautious and shut down Smith, the call would likely go to Logan Bawcom, who is already on the 40-man. Bawcom had great seasons in 2012 and 2013, but has struggled mightily this year with a 5.21 ERA (6.01 FIP) and a walk rate of 13.4 percent.  

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

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Don’t count out the Seattle Mariners.

Yes, the 66-55 M’s are looking up at both the 71-49 Los Angeles Angels and 73-49 Oakland A’s in the American League West. But in this era of the second wild card, third place can be good enough.

And, look at that, with a decisive 7-2 victory over the Detroit Tigers on Friday night, Seattle moved into playoff position.

If everything were settled today, the Mariners would be baseball’s most unlikely October-bound team. (They currently have the AL’s second wild-card spot and are a half-game up on the Tigers.)

They won Friday much the way they’ve won all season: behind solid pitching and Robinson Cano‘s bat. Cano, 31, signed with the Mariners in December for a 10-year, $240 million deal after playing his first nine years in the majors with the New York Yankees.

In plating six runs against sinkerballer Rick Porcello (five earned), the Mariners enjoyed a rare offensive outburst that included contributions up and down the lineup. 

Third baseman Kyle Seager and first baseman Logan Morrison each collected two hits and an RBI. So did Chris Taylor, a late-July call-up who has hit .385 in 18 games.

Seattle starter James Paxton went six innings, allowing just one earned run, and has now won all six of his big league decisions dating back to last year.

Center fielder Austin Jackson, who was traded to the Mariners in the three-team blockbuster that sent ace left-hander David Price to Detroit, got a nice ovation in his return to the Motor City (though he also went 0-for-5).

The star of the night, though, was Cano, who went 2-for-4, scored twice and yanked a solo shot over the right field wall.

The home run was just the 11th of the season for Cano. Still, he’s hitting .330, second best in the majors behind Houston‘s Jose Altuve (.334), and living up to the massive contract that brought him from the Big Apple to the birthplace of Starbucks.

There was a little sour mixed in with the sweet: Cano exited the game in the eighth inning with a sore foot, per MLB.com‘s Matt Slovin.

It’s always concerning to see a star player hobbled, but skipper Lloyd McClendon insisted it was a precautionary move. 

“He should be OK [Saturday],” McClendon told Slovin. “I just didn’t want to take a chance. Hopefully, it doesn’t swell.”

If Cano does take the field Saturday, he’ll face Price, the deadline acquisition who was supposed to push the Tigers into the American League’s upper echelon. 

Instead, Detroit has floundered. The 65-55 Tigers currently trail the 67-54 Kansas City Royals in the AL Central, and now they’re looking up at the Mariners, too.

“We’re in it,” Seager told Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune. “We feel really good about our chances down the stretch.”

It’s far too early to count out the Tigers, who could get rotation cogs Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez and closer Joakim Soria back this month, per MLB.com. And other teams, including the 63-60 Toronto Blue Jays and 61-59 Yankees, are hanging around in the wild-card chase.

But Seattle, a quiet contender all season, suddenly looks formidable. 

The Mariners need Cano at full health, no question. But he’s not their only weapon. Consider the guy they’ll send to the hill Saturday to counter Price: Felix Hernandez and his American League-leading 1.95 ERA.

Here’s how ESPN‘s Jim Caple (h/t ABC News) summed up Seattle’s surprising surge before Friday’s game:

Here they are, with the best pitching in the majors, coming off an 8-1 homestand, 10 games above .500 and with a real chance to take some attention away from the Seahawks in October. They might be in third place in the AL West … but baseball’s best division could provide three postseason teams. 

The thought of the Mariners making the postseason for the first time since 2001’s 116-46 team, and competing with the reigning Super Bowl champs for attention, would’ve sounded foolish to all but the most ardent believers a few months ago.

Now, it’s looking like we’d all be foolish to count them out.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Felix Hernandez is having a historically good season, arguably the best of his 10-year career with the Seattle Mariners.

Unfortunately, with Clayton Kershaw having another Cy Young-caliber year for the large-market Los Angeles Dodgers, King Felix hasn’t received the league-wide attention he deserves.

Felix’s assault on baseball’s record books continued Monday night, as the 28-year-old right-hander allowed one run on three hits over seven innings at home against the Toronto Blue Jays, striking out eight batters without issuing a walk. The performance extended his major-league-record streak to 16 games in which he’s logged seven or more innings and allowed two or fewer runs.

On the season, Hernandez owns a 13-3 record with a 1.95 ERA and 194-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 180.1 innings, and he’s held opposing hitters to a .191 batting average and .505 OPS.

His seven innings pitched in the game gave Hernandez 2,005 for his career, making him the youngest pitcher since 28-year-old Dwight Gooden in 1993 to reach the 2,000-inning mark, per Greg Johns of MLB.com.

Catcher Mike Zunino spoke about the Mariners ace after the game, via Johns:

“It’s something else,” Zunino said of the streak. “But he is something else. That’s all you can say. He’s got the best stuff right now and he’s pitching, too. When you have a combination of both, it’s pretty hard to score multiple runs off him.”

During his impressive streak, Hernandez has been virtually untouchable, posting a 9-2 record to go along with a 1.41 ERA and 134 strikeouts in 121 innings. Opposing hitters are batting a paltry .165/.203/.233 during that span.

Furthermore, Hernandez would set new career highs in several categories if the season ended today, including strikeouts (9.68), walks (1.60) and home runs (0.35) per nine innings, ERA (1.95) and FIP (2.07).

So, why aren’t people talking about King Felix’s incredible season like they are Kershaw’s?

On paper, Felix’s numbers admittedly aren’t quite as impressive as Kershaw’s, but they’re also not far behind.

The first thing that stands out is Hernandez’s 180.1 innings pitched compared to Kershaw’s 136.1, which highlights the right-hander’s durability and that he’s sustained his overall success over a longer period of time. And not to detract from Kershaw’s remarkable season, but his numbers, specifically his strikeout and walk rates, might be slightly inflated due to the smaller sample size.

That being said, Hernandez ranks second behind Kershaw (among all qualified pitchers) in several categories, including ERA and FIP.

Compared to other American League hurlers, however, it’s clear that nobody has been better than the Mariners ace. And if the remainder of the regular season unfolds as expected, the right-hander should take home his second Cy Young Award.

Hernandez’s impact also extends well beyond his impressive numbers; when he’s the on the mound, the Mariners are simply a better team.

The M’s offense has scored three or more runs in 19 of Hernandez’s 25 starts this season, and the right-hander owns a 13-0 record and 2.04 ERA in those games. Overall, the team is 17-8 with Felix on the bump, per Baseball Reference.

Seattle’s win over the Blue Jays on Monday puts it one game back of the Detroit Tigers for the second Wild Card spot with a 63-55 overall record, with a 38.2 percent chance of reaching the postseason, per Baseball Prospectus’ calculations, via MLB.com.

Hopefully it doesn’t take a playoff berth to make people realize how insanely good King Felix has been this season.

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If only one word could describe Felix Hernandez‘s performance this season, it would be “dominant.”

As King Felix exited Monday night’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays, he came away with a stat line of seven innings pitched, three hits, one earned run and eight strikeouts. Perhaps he would have gone longer if the Seattle Mariners had not been ahead by a score of 11-1.

And so, Hernandez continued his awe-inspiring streak.

What streak is that you ask? Well, for 16 straight starts, Hernandez has gone at least seven innings while allowing two earned runs or less. He broke Tom Seaver’s record of 13 straight such starts in 1971 three starts ago. In fact, it has been exactly four months since Hernandez has allowed more than two runners to cross the plate. On May 12 he surrendered four runs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

In the 16 starts Hernandez is now 8-2 with a 1.41 ERA and 134 punch outs. The M’s are 12-4 in that span.

Overall, the King is having a royal season, one that will almost certainly earn himself some hardware. After Monday’s win, Hernandez is now 13-3 with a 1.95 ERA. Opposing hitters are making fools of themselves, as they are batting just .191 against him. Not to mention he has struck out 194 of those guys.

The Mariners ace finds himself among the best in just about every major pitching category. No pitcher in the American League has more Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (6.0) than Hernandez, who also leads the majors in Adjusted Pitching Wins (4.6) and is tied for the lead with 25 starts. His wins, ERA, strikeouts, WHIP (0.86), H/9 (6.139), innings pitched (180.1), Adjusted ERA (191) and Fielding Independent Pitching (2.07) are all second best in the majors.

The 28-year-old also find himself in the top 10 in BB/9, K/9, K/BB and HR/9. Only six other pitchers in baseball have faced more hitters than Hernandez (686).

On its own, the body of work Hernandez has put together this season is nothing short of brilliant. Now, add in the fact that the Mariners are vying for a playoff berth, and Hernandez’s dominance becomes all the more special and meaningful. If he keeps doing what he is doing, the Mariners have a chance to make the postseason for the first time in over a decade.

As of now, Hernandez is the clear-cut favorite to bring home the American League Cy Young Award. Despite the impressive seasons of others, no one can touch what he has done to this point.

Come the stretch run, fans at Safeco Field will be showering the pitcher with MVP chants as yellow King Felix K signs fill the seats.

If the Mariners are still playing in October, Hernandez may just get both awards.

All stats were obtained via Baseball-Reference.com.

Question or comments? Feel free to follow me on Twitter @GPhillips2727 to talk Major League Baseball.

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The Seattle Mariners made it through the trade deadline without giving up any of their top prospects, leaving a promising farm system in place.

Seattle has high hopes for the likes of D.J. Peterson, Taijuan Walker and Chris Taylor to make big contributions in the major leagues for several years to come. New draftees Alex Jackson and Gareth Morgan also have strong potential, in addition to good pitching depth throughout the system.

With all that talent at the top of prospect rankings, the Mariners have several others who are currently flying under the radar. 

Four of these players stand out as being the best underrated prospects in the system and will soon start to receive more attention if their strong 2014 seasons continue.  

Patrick Kivlehan, 3B

Kivlehan moved up to No. 9 in MLB.com’s midseason rankings of the top Mariners prospects but is arguably having the best year of anyone in the minor league system.

After putting up strong numbers at High-A, Kivlehan has really started to shine in Double-A. Through 78 games with Jackson, Kivlehan has posted a .318/.401/.521 line with nine home runs.

In addition, Kivlehan’s plate approach has improved significantly in Double-A compared to previous levels. Kivlehan has a walk rate of 11.6 percent and a strikeout rate of 18.3 percent in what is typically considered a pitchers’ league.

As with many others before him, Kivlehan struggled for about 20 games with the transition from hitter-friendly High Desert. He has since found his stride, with 17 doubles over his last 56 games.

Kivlehan primarily played football during his college career at Rutgers and has a good combination of size and athleticism. He has plenty of untapped power potential and also stole 16 bases in 2013, although that number has dipped slightly this season.

That athletic potential was what prompted scouting director Tom McNamara to select Kivlehan in the fourth round of the 2012 draft, via Keith Sargeant of MyCentralJersey.com.

“What we saw with Kivlehan is he’s just a physical, athletic kid,” McNamara said. “The way we look at him is he played college football, he’s played against some of the best athletes in the country. And he just started to play baseball again, and he put up numbers.”

Kyle Seager will be manning third base in the majors for the foreseeable future, so Kivlehan will be in need of a position change. Kivlehan could move to first base should Peterson be promoted to Triple-A before him and has also recently seen time in left field.

Kivlehan remains the most underrated prospect in the organization, but that will change soon if he continues to put up numbers and is moved to Triple-A before the end of the year.

Austin Cousino, OF

Cousino was Seattle’s third-round selection in the 2014 draft back in June, behind Jackson and Morgan. While he is rated well behind those two in terms of potential, Cousino has impressed so far.

There’s no question that Cousino was drafted due to his defensive potential in center field. Cousino was a member of the SEC All-Defensive Team during all three seasons of his college career at Kentucky. 

Along with Gabriel Guerrero, Cousino has the strongest defensive outfield tools in the Seattle organization.

Cousino also has above-average speed and has already stolen 19 bases with Low-A Everett. The only uncertainty was if he would be able to hit enough to stick in the minors.

Through the first 45 games of his professional career, Cousino has posted a .303/.388/.469 line. Cousino will mostly use his quick bat speed to be a singles hitter, but he has hit five home runs and 12 doubles with Everett.

As a result, Cousino was selected to the Northwest League All-Star Game.

It’s still early in Cousino’s career, but that offensive production combined with terrific defense means he’s worth keeping an eye on. Cousino should be in line for a promotion to Mid-A Clinton shortly.

Matt Brazis, RP

While he is nearly 25 years old and just recently made his Double-A debut, Brazis has posted some eye-opening numbers at every level he’s stopped at.

Brazis missed significant time during his career at Boston College and was selected in the 28th round of the 2012 draft as a project with great raw stuff that would take some time to develop. That potential has been realized in 2014, as Brazis has posted some impressive command numbers.

In 23 games to begin the year at High Desert, Brazis posted a strikeout rate of 31.1 percent and a walk rate of just 5.0 percent. Brazis allowed just four home runs in 39.1 innings, a very impressive rate for the California League.

He’s since moved to Double-A, allowing two runs in 17.1 innings while striking out 16.

Brazis features a low-90s fastball plus a good curveball and slider. He has great control over all three pitches, as evidenced by his low walk rate at every professional level he’s been at.

Still, that doesn’t seem like a repertoire that would allow Brazis to post such big strikeout numbers. Farm director Chris Gwynn explained Brazis’ success back in 2012, via John Hickey of Baseball America.

It starts with the deception; it’s big-time deception.

When you have this kind of command, throwing the fastball at the knees both on the inside or outside corners, that makes everything else work. … The hitter has to look for the fastball, so the other pitches look better. And because he locates the ball as well as he does, the fastball is tough to hit.

Seattle’s bullpen is tough to crack at the moment, so it may be a while before Brazis gets his shot in the majors. The Mariners have successfully called up relievers directly from Double-A before, so Brazis could get a look next year if he continues to pitch well.

All Stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

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Starting pitcher James Paxton appears close to returning to the Seattle Mariners rotation after missing nearly four months with a strained lat muscle.

Nothing official has been announced by the team yet, but Paxton is traveling with the Mariners on their current road trip and will throw a bullpen this week, per Greg Johns of MLB.com. Johns points out he could potentially start as early as Saturday against the Baltimore Orioles.

Although the Mariners lead the majors in ERA, Paxton’s successful return could be the most important factor for the team over the final two months of the season.  

It’s no secret that the Mariners need offense much more than pitching, but there simply isn’t much out there. Kendrys Morales will likely be a slight upgrade at DH, and Seattle might be able to grab an outfielder like Alex Rios before the deadline, but the Mariners are not going to be able to address every offensive need via the trade market.

If the Mariners can’t improve their offensive production enough, the next best thing for them is to improve their run prevention. With depth about to get short at the back of the rotation, Paxton may be the only pitcher in the organization who will be able to do that.

Paxton has too small of a sample size in the major leagues to make any conclusive statements, but he has pitched well so far in Seattle. Through five career starts, Paxton has allowed seven earned runs in 36 innings while posting a strikeout rate of 24.8 percent and walk rate of 6.6 percent.

While Paxton has always been rated behind Taijuan Walker in terms of upside, he looked absolutely dominant April 2 against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

If Paxton can pitch anywhere close to that level in August and September, the Mariners will have an outstanding top three in their rotation for the final stretch. If Chris Young can continue to defy regression, they will have a strong top four.

Seattle’s expected Opening Day rotation has not all been healthy at one point this season, and the Mariners have not been able to find a reliable No. 5 starter as a result.

Brandon Maurer has had much more success as a reliever than as a starter, Erasmo Ramirez has a walk rate of 11.6 percent and Taijuan Walker is still learning to pitch in the major leagues at just 21 years old.   

In the No. 4 spot, Roenis Elias has stabilized himself in his last two starts after a rough month, but he is only 25 innings short of his professional career high. Elias will likely be in the bullpen by September, if he’s pitching at all.

Paxton must be effective in filling one of those two spots. If he suffers another setback or pitches poorly, the Mariners are looking at starting two of Ramirez, Walker or Blake Beavan in the rotation for the rest of the year.

With the Mariners’ current offense, that isn’t going to work out well. The other option would be to pay the high price in prospects for one of the few available pitchers like Bartolo Colon at the deadline, but any potential trade is likely to be for a bat.

The Mariners know a lat problem can be difficult, as Stephen Pryor (now with the Minnesota Twins) was initially diagnosed with a similar injury and still doesn’t look like the same pitcher over a year later. Paxton himself suffered a scary setback in May. 

However, the team is going to be incredibly careful with Paxton and must feel confident in his health if he is traveling with the team and throwing his scheduled bullpen.

Most importantly, Paxton felt good during his latest rehab start, via Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times.

I felt good. No pain at all. I feel like it’s getting closer. I’m still missing down with my fastball. The breaking stuff felt really good, curveball and cutter felt really good. My change-up was good. It’s just finding the release point with my fastball. But I feel like I took a good step forward today. … It’s better to miss there than up. I feel like it’s a small adjustment and I will be able to get my fastball where I want it.

Paxton was a bit shaky with his command Sunday, walking three batters in 4.1 innings. It wouldn’t get any easier if he were to pitch against the Orioles on the road in his return, but the Mariners have little choice but to start him if they feel he is healthy enough.

A healthy Paxton would be a huge boost to a sliding Seattle ballclub. Paxton will be one of the most important players to the Mariners over the rest of the season, if not the most critical piece.

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The Seattle Mariners made their first move of the trade-deadline season on Thursday, acquiring Kendrys Morales from the Minnesota Twins.

Greg Johns of MLB.com confirms that the Mariners sent reliever Stephen Pryor to the Twins in exchange for Morales:

Morales isn’t an impact bat, but he should be able to provide a slight improvement as a designated hitter at a low cost. It’s a sensible move for the Mariners to make, albeit a weird one after Morales rejected multiple contracts from the team in the offseason, including a $14.1 million qualifying offer.

Best-case scenario, Morales shakes off the rust from his late start to the season and matches his numbers from last year for the rest of the season. If Morales doesn’t turn it around, the Mariners are no worse off than before, either this year or for the future, as they didn’t give up much value to get him.

Morales signed with the Twins after the MLB draft, as he would no longer come at the cost of a compensation pick. Since debuting on June 9, Morales has hit .234/.359/.325 with just one home run.

Those numbers aren’t going to help Seattle’s woeful DH situation, so the Mariners are hoping Morales’ slow start is due to rust from not having a spring training. Morales has been a little better since July 7, raising his season average from .219 and collecting six doubles in that span.

The Mariners need Morales to hit well right away. Seattle is 2-5 since the All-Star break and has lost control of the second AL wild-card spot, as Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times highlights:

If Morales can even get close to his 118 wRC+ of last year over the rest of the season, the Mariners will be quite happy with the trade. With Michael Saunders out, Seattle has two healthy regulars in the lineup with wRC+ marks over the league average of 100.

Lloyd McClendon said that Morales can at least give some flexibility to a lineup that has been counting on Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager to do everything, via Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com.

“He’s a professional hitter. He gives us the opportunity to stretch out our lineup, so to speak. He’s a nice fit, switch-hitter, hitting behind Robbie (Cano). … He gives us options, what we want to do with (Kyle) Seager, where we want to hit him. I like it,” he said.

Even if Morales continues to struggle, he comes at a low price. Pryor has upside, but he has not pitched well in Triple-A this season while recovering from major lat surgery.

The big concern is about Pryor’s velocity. His fastball currently sits at around 92 mph after averaging 96.2 in the 2012 season before the injury, according to FanGraphs.

Pryor could get healthy and become an effective reliever once again, but he wouldn’t have been an upgrade over anyone in the deep Mariners bullpen. Barring multiple injuries, Pryor wasn’t going to pitch again in the majors this year, as prospect Carson Smith is also waiting in Triple-A.

Morales’ addition will likely cost at-bats for Corey Hart as the team’s primary DH. Hart has been unable to get going after missing all of last season in addition to a lengthy stint on the disabled list earlier this year.

As a switch-hitter, Morales will likely be in the lineup every day as the DH. He has been considerably better against right-handers in his career, so a platoon with Jesus Montero (career .827 OPS versus left-handers) would make some sense, but the Mariners don’t seem too keen on giving Montero playing time.

Morales could potentially start at first base against lefties, although he is awful defensively. Johns confirmed that the current plan is to platoon Hart and Logan Morrison at first, with Morales playing if needed.

The only way this trade could hurt the Mariners is if they get complacent and make no other moves, as Morales is not enough on his own to key a playoff run. That doesn’t seem to be the case, as Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reports that Seattle asked about outfielder Drew Stubbs on Thursday:

Morales should offer a slight improvement at basically no cost to the Mariners. It’s not a flashy impact trade, but it makes sense.

All stats via FanGraphs.com, unless otherwise noted.

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The Seattle Mariners enter the All-Star break with a 2.5-game lead in the race for the second American League wild-card spot but still have some clear needs to address at the MLB trading deadline.

There’s no doubt Seattle will be in the market for offense. The Mariners are tied for last in the AL in wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) and have holes in left field and at designated hitter.

While offense is the primary need, the Mariners also will be looking for an addition to the middle of their rotation. Seattle has depth to sell at relief pitcher and shortstop, meaning it should be possible for the Mariners to address as many as three needs without mortgaging the future.

The Mariners don’t necessarily need to make a blockbuster trade to get into the playoffs. Simply addressing a few holes with even league-average players will make Seattle a significantly better ballclub.

Acquire a right-handed corner outfielder

Such a player would fit exactly what the Mariners currently need. Seattle’s lineup is overloaded with lefties and desperately needs an upgrade in left field.

Seattle has received a combined 0.3 WAR from Dustin Ackley and Endy Chavez, the team’s primary left fielders. Anyone who can post league-average offensive numbers over the rest of the season will be an upgrade.

The situation worsened last Thursday when Michael Saunders injured his oblique muscle, via Bob Dutton of The Tacoma News Tribune:

That means the Mariners are looking at playing both Ackley and Chavez every day until around September, if everything goes well with Saunders’ recovery. Upgrading both would be nice, but the Mariners must at least get one corner outfielder.

There are a number of right-handed corner outfielders who should theoretically be available. Marlon Byrd, Josh Willingham, Alex Rios or Justin Ruggiano would make some sense in Seattle.

Of those, Byrd seems the most likely to land with the Mariners at the moment. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports that the Mariners have had “serious” discussion with the Philadelphia Phillies about acquiring Byrd:

Byrd has hit .263/.315/.479 with 18 home runs this season, including a .954 OPS against left-handed pitching. That power would decrease in Safeco Field. Byrd has an ugly strikeout rate, but he would be a clear upgrade over Ackley.

FanGraphs has Byrd playing roughly average defense in right field over the past few seasons in terms of defensive runs saved. Byrd would likely be slightly worse than Ackley in left and slightly better than Chavez at either spot, but his offense would make up for it.

Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs offers a breakdown of how Byrd turned his career around in 2013 after bouncing around the majors:

Between 2010 and 2012, Byrd ranked in the upper eighth in ground-ball rate. Since the start of last season, he ranks in the upper fifth infly-ball rate. Byrd’s swing has a bit more of an uppercut, and the other numbers that come along with it aren’t surprising.

Again, the home runs would decrease, but Byrd has the kind of power the Mariners need.

A dream scenario could be prying away Scott Van Slyke from the Los Angeles Dodgers, but it might be too much of a stretch. The Dodgers need to sort out a logjam in the outfield, but it’s unclear if they would be willing to part with Van Slyke.

Van Slyke has posted a 166 wRC+ in 155 plate appearances this season, including a 1.125 OPS against lefties. If he were available, Van Slyke would be more expensive than Byrd, as the Dodgers would be selling him when his value is at a peak.

The Mariners should be content with turning one of their high-upside relievers, likely Brandon Maurer, into a decent outfield bat. Ackley could also be involved in a change-of-scenery deal.

Look for an additional bat

The Mariners are last in the AL in on-base percentage and have scored 19 runs in their last 10 games. One bat is necessary to hold on to a wild-card spot, but Seattle needs two to be a serious contender.

Those numbers are about to get worse with Saunders’ injury, as he had the third-best wRC+ on the team among regular players.

Even if the Mariners can’t pick up two outfielders, they can get someone to be the DH. Corey Hart has a .628 OPS and is an injury risk, meaning the Mariners could use an upgrade.

Hart has been a bit unfortunate with a .246 BABIP and is still regaining his timing from a long stint on the disabled list, but he needs to turn it around by the July 31 deadline.

If Hart doesn’t improve fast, the Mariners will be looking to add another bat of any sort. Ruggiano hits lefties well (.869 OPS versus left-handed pitching) and should come at a reasonable price.

In addition to the outfielders listed above, Ben Zobrist is a big name who will be available. Zobrist has a wRC+ of 117 and can be plugged in at any number of positions, likely right field in Seattle’s case.

However, the Mariners can’t play Zobrist at second base, his most valuable position. Other teams will be likely willing to give up more for him.

Pick up a mid-level starter

Despite the great pitching numbers, the Mariners will soon have a need for a starter.

Roenis Elias is unraveling, with 16 earned runs allowed in his last three starts. He has never thrown more than 148.1 innings in a professional season and is quickly approaching that mark.

Greg Johns of MLB.com reports that James Paxton will make a rehab start at Low-A Everett on Thursday. Still, a lat injury is difficult to recover from, and Paxton could be shut down for the year with even another minor setback.

Taijuan Walker is back, but the Mariners are going to be incredibly careful with both him and Paxton. Lloyd McClendon was also less than pleased with Walker’s start in Tacoma last Sunday, according to Curtis Crabtree of Sports Radio KJR:

Even veteran Chris Young is on pace to pass his career-high innings count of 179.1. The Mariners need a healthy and reliable option behind Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma.

The big name out there is David Price. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports believes the Mariners should trade for the ace.

“Yes, the Mariners would need to give up legitimate pieces for Price – one rival executive suggested a package of right-hander Taijuan Walker, infielder Nick Franklin and third baseman D.J. Peterson, the 12th overall pick in the 2013 draft,” he wrote.

Walker and Nick Franklin would be understandable in a trade, but the name that should concern the Mariners is D.J. Peterson. The Mariners can’t afford to lose any offensive prospects due to the difficulty of attracting hitters to Seattle, particularly ones with Peterson’s power.

It would be hard to fault the Mariners for going for it, but acquiring Price assumes they can win a World Series in the next two years. That’s possible but not probable without at least two bats.

Instead, a cheaper mid-level starter might be a better option. Ian Kennedy is the kind of player who would be a good fit.

Kennedy has a 3.47 ERA (2.94 FIP) and has struck out 26.1 percent of batters faced while only walking 6.7 percent. He is a slight fly-ball pitcher, meaning his numbers shouldn’t drop too much transitioning from Petco Park to Safeco Field.

San Diego Padres manager Bud Black explained why he thinks Kennedy is on pace for some of the best numbers of his career, including a career high in strikeouts, via Will Laws of MLB.com:

“I think Ian is throwing as well as he’s thrown in a few years as far as just pure stuff and making pitches. His velocity is up, his secondary pitches are good. So it doesn’t surprise me at all.”

If Seattle wants a starter, it will take more than a relief pitcher. The Mariners have a number of shortstops who are blocked at the major league level and could be traded.

Franklin is the most valuable, but the Mariners could also get something for Chris Taylor or include Ketel Marte as part of a package.

The Mariners need to make acquisitions, particularly bats, to reach the playoffs. Once there, anything is possible with Hernandez and Iwakuma at the top of the rotation.

All stats via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Earlier in the 2014 season, pitcher Brandon Maurer’s future with the Seattle Mariners was in serious doubt.

Much like the year before, Maurer was forced into the starting rotation due to injuries and struggled, posting a 7.52 ERA (5.37 FIP) in seven starts while walking nearly as many as he struck out.

Although he just turned 24 years old, Maurer didn’t look to have a place in a healthy Seattle rotation, either in the present or in the future. He was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma on May 29.

The Mariners surprised by calling up Maurer on June 25, a few days before Taijuan Walker returned from a shoulder injury and took over the No. 5 rotation spot.

Even more surprising, Maurer came out of the bullpen that night in the late innings of a close game rather than the long-relief role he was placed in near the end of 2013.

Maurer didn’t just look better on June 25, he looked dominant.

In seven scoreless innings out of the bullpen so far, Maurer has given up only three hits and two walks while striking out nine. Seven innings isn’t enough to judge anything statistically, but it’s becoming increasingly apparent that Maurer’s ideal fit was in the bullpen all along.

Maurer has always had the raw stuff to be successful. He used a lively mid-90s fastball and assortment of various off-speed pitches to dominate the low minors, racking up strikeout rates north of 30 percent along the way.

The strikeouts came back to earth a bit in Double-A as Maurer began to struggle with his command, but he still posted a 3.20 ERA and gave up just four home runs in 24 starts. Seattle needed a starter at the beginning of the 2013 season and decided to have Maurer skip Triple-A to join the rotation.

It didn’t work, as Maurer looked completely overmatched as a major league starter. We can’t know how much those initial struggles impacted his confidence or mentality, but he continued to be ineffective for the rest of the year and early on in 2014.

Then the breakthrough came on June 25 against the Boston Red Sox, as he struck out the side in his first relief inning.

We’ve seen Maurer’s fastball sit around 95 or 96 mph before, but it has hit 99 several times since his move to the bullpen. With as lively as his fastball is, the increased velocity is going to be a challenge for opposing hitters. 

Maurer said pitching short outings out of the bullpen has improved his mentality, per Greg Johns of MLB.com.

“It’s fun. Just attack, get back in the dugout and let our hitters put up some runs…I think that has to do with adrenaline, just knowing I can get out there and let it rip for an inning or two and let it go that way.”

Maurer has also been using his slider effectively as an out pitch since moving to the bullpen. Data from PITCHf/x on FanGraphs.com indicates Maurer has done a good job of getting hitters to chase his slider out of the strike zone, generating a swinging strike percentage of 17.4.

It’s when Maurer tries to mix and match his other three pitches that he runs into trouble. Only having two plus pitches won’t work for a starter, but it can make for an effective short-inning reliever.

It’s still too early to think about prepping Maurer for a closer role one day, but he has the makeup and stuff for it.

Maurer’s command issues as a starter made him prone to big innings, even on the few occasions he started well. He also tends to throw far too many pitches, lasting past the fifth just once this year.

Both are things Maurer won’t have to worry as much about coming out of the bullpen, which could further help his mentality on the mound.

The other scenario Maurer’s conversion opens up is using him as a potential trade chip. If he continues to look dominant as the deadline approaches, the Mariners could use the opportunity to sell high on him in an attempt to get the right-handed bat they desperately need.

Seattle’s bullpen has been outstanding all year, leading the majors in ERA while striking out over a batter per inning. It would be nice to have yet another power arm in the bullpen, but the Mariners can survive without Maurer should a trade open up.

Just months after he looked lost, Maurer’s future is brighter than ever.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.  

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