Kuzul

For a team that finished with 91 losses like the Seattle Mariners, the offseason is exceptionally crucial. The roster is full of an interesting but not necessarily intriguing or promising mix of youth and experience, and it was ineffective last season.

The pitching staff was one of the worst in baseball (mostly the bullpen), and the offense improved its power but hit just as poorly as in years past. The right combinations simply weren’t there. The team looked promising at times and feeble at others, performing wildly inconsistent and without a true leadoff hitter.

Speaking of a true leadoff hitter, that should be one of Seattle’s points of emphasis this winter. Players hitting first in the order hit just .247 this season with 88 runs scored—both near the bottom of the league.

They plan to pursue Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. Both of those guys have been leadoff hitters throughout their respective careers and would be great fits in Seattle.

Choo has struggled against left-handed pitching (.220 against lefties the last three seasons) but has some power and netted career highs in OBP (.423), walks (112) and runs (107) last season. He’s 31 years old, but unlike Ellsbury, the majority of his value doesn’t lie in his legs.

Ellsbury is one of the best base stealers in the game but has an injury history and recently turned 30. That being said, the high reward probably outweighs the risk, mostly because he’s also a .297 career hitter and well above average defensively (career 27 defensive runs saved above average).

Neither of these guys will be cheap, but the fact that the Mariners will be pursuing them indicates their willingness to spend.

Joe Saunders. Aaron Harang. Jeremy Bonderman. Signing fringe starters like these will take the team nowhere, as evidenced by the trio’s combined line of 17-30, 5.41 ERA and 1.50 WHIP last season.

Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are a scary one-two, and Taijuan Walker and James Paxton can shore up the back end, so Seattle just needs that third starter in order to have a legitimate starting rotation. Maybe it’ll come from within in the form of Erasmo Ramirez or Brandon Maurer. Most likely, though, they’ll have to go out of the organization and sign a free agent or trade a package of prospects for a veteran.

Seattle starters’ ERA was a combined 4.18 last season, and while that’s respectable, it’s an obvious downgrade from 3.93 the year before. Phil Hughes could be a viable addition, as would former Mariner Jason Vargas. Both pitchers have had success in Seattle—Hughes is 4-0 with a 0.82 ERA at Safeco Field (22 innings pitched) and Vargas is 22-21 with a 3.33 ERA in 376 innings at Safeco.

Neither should be overly pricey and both would be perfect third starters in the rotation.

The Mariners bullpen was one of the worst in baseball last season. Relievers went 16-33 with a 4.58 ERA while opponents hit .253. However, the same unit by far totaled the most strikeouts (535) yet gave up the third-most walks (224). Part of it was youth. Part of it was injuries.

With everyone a year older and Stephen Pryor on the mend, the unit should naturally be better. The frustrating part is not knowing why they digressed so much from 2012 when they had a collective 3.39 ERA. The ballpark dimensions could have had something to do with it. The ERA of the pitching staff at home in 2012 was 2.96. In 2013, it climbed to 4.17. Tom Wilhelmsen should be back to old form, but if he’s not, someone like Pryor or Danny Farquhar will have to take the reins as closer.

All stats via ESPN.com, MLB.com and baseball-reference.com.

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Contrary to what it may seem, the Seattle Mariners are a mess at first base. 

Justin Smoak was supposed to be Seattle’s first baseman of the future, but has been wildly inconsistent, even getting demoted to Triple-A for stints in each of the past two seasons. The relegations have helped, but he hasn’t made great strides in his offensive game. 

Dustin Ackley can play first, but may need to share time at second base or in the outfield next season, depending on who Seattle can sign in free agency. He’s also been disappointing and may be better suited for a utility role until further notice. 

First round pick D.J. Peterson will probably eventually be making the transition from third to first, but is in Single-A and won’t be seen in Seattle for at least another season or two.

Kendrys Morales is the ideal first baseman for the Mariners, although he was mostly a DH. He’s already said he won’t accept Seattle’s qualifying offer, but that doesn’t mean Morales won’t play for the Mariners next season. He’ll be tough to bring back, considering the limited power on the market, but his familiarity with the club and the organization could help Jack Zduriencik’s chances of bringing him back, or hurt them depending on their relationship.

Based on their career-long body of work and estimated salaries, here are free agent first basemen the Mariners should target this winter.

All stats via ESPN.com and baseball-reference.com.

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It’s unclear what direction the Seattle Mariners want to go in. They have a wealth of young talent in the minor leagues, some of which has seen major league action. 

The front office also has some fairly deep pockets to play with this off season, so it will be interesting to see whether Jack Zduriencik wants to rely on a mix of veterans and youth, or bring in a superstar player or two to help right what has been a very disappointing and consistently mediocre ship.

Besides the likes of Taijuan Walker, James Paxton and Danny Hultzen, here are three prospects the Mariners can build around in the near future, provided they elect to go that route.

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On Friday night, highly-touted prospect Taijuan Walker made his much-anticipated MLB debut for the Seattle Mariners against the Houston Astros.

And he was phenomenal.

Ranked as Seattle’s top pitching prospect by both Baseball America and MLB.com in each of the past two seasons, Walker certainly didn’t look out of place on a major league mound, recording eight straight outs to begin the game before Seattle’s defense betrayed him.

Stop me if you’ve heard that one before.

The Mariners beat the Astros 7-1, with Walker picking up his first major league victory, though he was robbed of his first career quality start, as he was pulled after only five innings of work.

Let’s take a closer look at what the 21-year-old right-hander had going for him.

Command: A

Command was one thing that B/R’s Adam Wells pointed to as an area of concern for Walker when he delivered his scouting report for the 21-year-old on Wednesday:

The biggest issue Walker has is fastball command. He has a great, explosive heater, but can have some problems finishing his delivery out front, which causes the fastball to sail on him. He’s walked 57 in 141.1 innings this season, including 27 in 57.1 Triple-A innings. 

Because the velocity is so good and Walker is able to stay around the zone with the heater, he can get away with average command this season, but adjustments will have to be made in camp next season before he’s ready to showcase his true talents. 

Walker had command of all of his pitches in his major league debut, throwing 43 of his 70 pitches on the night for strikes.

The fact that he only walked one batter is a testament to just how locked in the 21-year-old was.

Velocity: A

Walker didn’t have his swing-and-miss stuff working for him in his major league debut, with only six of his 70 pitches on the night eliciting an actual miss.

But he kept his fastball in the low-to-mid 90’s, using a 95 mile-per-hour heater to get Jason Castro to swing—and miss badly—for his first career strikeout.

While Walker wasn’t blowing hitters away with pure, unadulterated heat, his pitches stayed right around where they’ve been all season long with Double-A Jackson and Triple-A Tacoma.

Movement: A

Walker’s fastball has some late movement to it, but it’s his secondary pitches, namely his cutter and curveball, that drive batters, well, batty.

The cutter has big-time glove-side movement and eats up bats, while his curveball, a 12-to-6 pitch that breaks over two planes, was his most impressive secondary offering on the night.

High-Pressure Situations: A+

Most veterans, much less 21-year-old rookies making their major league debuts, would have lost it in the top of the third inning, when Seattle’s defense simply collapsed:

Not Walker, who brushed off the defensive miscues by his teammates and went to work against Astros second baseman Jose Altuve, getting the 2012 All-Star to hit a harmless fly ball to right field for the final out of the inning.

Under pressure, Walker didn’t crack. He rose to the occasion, holding Houston to just one run on the board.

Overall: A+

Taijuan Walker lived up to the hype, and for that, Mariners fans have to be ecstatic.

Realistically, both of the hits that Walker allowed on the night could have been scored as errors, and while he was facing the lowly Astros, Walker’s stat line—five innings, two hits, no earned runs, one walk and two strikeouts—was impressive.

With Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma already established stars at the major league level and the addition of Walker, Seattle could have as good a Top 3 in its rotation as any team in baseball next season.

He’s that good—and he’s only going to get better.

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In a season that has already seen a number of highly touted rookie pitchers make their presence felt, we can now add another name to the list: Taijuan Walker.

Seattle’s top-rated pitching prospect made his major league debut on Friday night against Houston and was phenomenal, allowing two hits (both which could have—and probably should have—been scored as errors) and one unearned run over five innings of work, walking one and striking out two.

Only 21 years old, Walker’s MLB debut is on par with those of the other highly touted rookies that have come before him this season:

*Sonny Gray’s first two appearances came in relief; this was his third big league appearance (first start).

While Walker may not have racked up the gaudy strikeout numbers of Jose Fernandez or Zack Wheeler, he showed phenomenal command of his pitches, keeping the ball around the plate and attacking batters with the confidence of a seasoned veteran.

Clearly, the Mariners are going to bring Walker along slowly, pulling him after he threw only 70 pitches. That will certainly impact the numbers that he puts up in the handful of starts that he has left to make this season.

On pure stuff alone, Walker is right up there with Fernandez and, in my opinion, has a more impressive arsenal than the rest of those on the list.

His fastball sits in the low to mid 90s, with Walker getting it up to 95 to fan All-Star Jason Castro for his first career major league strikeout.

Walker’s cutter isn’t far behind the fastball in terms of quality, sitting in the low 90s, but it’s Walker’s curveball—still a work in progress—that puts him ahead of everyone not named Fernandez on this list.

A legitimate 12-6 curve with incredible break, Walker made Castro look foolish with the pitch, recording his second career strikeout when Castro was clearly looking for the heater.

With Felix Hernandez in Seattle, Walker will never be considered the ace of the Mariners pitching staff, and rightfully so. Players like King Felix are simply on a different level than everyone else.

But Walker has the talent, the arsenal and the makeup to be a major league ace. While the same could be said of the other high-profile rookie starters who made their MLB debuts this year, Walker has that extra something—just like Fernandez—that makes him just a little bit better than everyone else.

On Friday night, Taijuan Walker looked like a young Kevin Brown or Dwight Gooden. If he can go on to have even half of the success that those two had early in their careers, the future for both him and Seattle is going to be very bright. 

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SB Nation’s Bill Parker did us the favor of comparing Felix Hernandez and Randy Johnson based on their performances as members of the Seattle Mariners.

Just a quick glance at his findings leaves you with a burning desire to further analyze their dominance:

Whoa. Felix Hernandez: 264 GS, 1799 IP, 128 ERA+, 39.2 WAR Randy Johnson with Mariners: 266 GS, 1838 IP, 128 ERA+, 39.3 WAR

— Bill Parker (@Bill_TPA) August 23, 2013

To clarify, we’re interested in more than plain effectiveness. Those stats Parker tweeted confirm that King Felix and the Big Unit were equally excellent in near-identical sample sizes.

Dominance is so much more than that. It factors in strikeout rate—taking pressure off of the defense—as well as pitch efficiency and finding the delicate balance between them. Consistency from game to game is also a huge part of the dominance equation. Complete-game efforts are ideal, but a truly dominant individual also minimizes his implosions, the forgettable outings when he puts his team at an insurmountable deficit.

Continue scrolling down as we take all of that into consideration and make the difficult choice between a surefire, first-ballot Hall of Famer, and a superstar on pace to become one.

*Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and accurate as of August 23.

Felix Hernandez in Seattle (2005-Present)

Hernandez debuted for the Mariners as a teenager and immediately excelled. Only 2006, his first full season, could be described as anything less than great.

He’s been a four-time All-Star and barring a brutal, late-season slump, this season will mark the fourth time that he has achieved a top-five finish in American League Cy Young Award voting. The writers thankfully overlooked his modest win total in 2010 to recognize him following what was undoubtedly an award-worthy campaign.

Using the marvelous Baseball-Reference.com Play Index, we can extract all the instances in which he has imploded, defined here by surrendering at least five earned runs in four or fewer innings pitched:

Not so bad, actually. Felix turns in only about one of those per season, and with a strikeout-to-walk ratio better than 1.00, we can infer that the ineffectiveness has more to do with well-placed balls in play, rather than his own awfulness.

That’s not an excuse, however. If Hernandez’s velocity wasn’t quite so ordinary, perhaps he would induce more swings and misses instead of hoping that his fielders bail him out.

The Venezuelan native has never led the AL in strikeouts, although he was runner-up to Jered Weaver in 2010. Also, prior to 2013, he never managed to average more than a strikeout per inning (career 8.3 K/9).

Nonetheless, Hernandez makes a habit out of terrorizing helpless batters.

Bill James’ Game Score helps us visualize this. It’s a metric that grades each start on a 0-100 scale based on the innings a pitcher provides, his strikeout total and the number of runs and baserunners he allows.

Through 264 career outings, the King has recorded a Game Score of at least 80 about 11 percent of the time.

Randy Johnson in Seattle (1989-1998)

The wiry left-hander spent eight full seasons in the Pacific Northwest (1990-1997) and finished top three in AL Cy Young Award voting four times. He won the hardware in 1995 when he lost only two (!) decisions in 30 starts.

Johnson didn’t implode often, but it was hideous when he did:

In nearly all of those 11 examples, his command deserted him. Johnson’s pitch count would climb in a hurry as he struggled to find the strike zone, and notice the four times he departed without even completing three frames (Hernandez had no such performances).

Of course, he was practically untouchable on most occasions.

Johnson limited his opposition to a batting average at or below .216 in every season from 1990-1997. He posted a gaudy 10.6 K/9 during his Mariners career, and his total of 94 double-digit strikeout games is safely out of anybody’s reach.

Remember the Game Score stat that attested to Hernandez’s dominance? Well, Johnson had 43 such efforts for the Mariners, accounting for more than 16 percent of his regular-season starts with the organization.

Unlike Hernandez, he had opportunities to pitch in the postseason. In allowing fewer than one baserunner per inning during the 1995 and 1997 playoffs, and making arguably the most important relief appearance in franchise history, that certainly doesn’t hurt his case.

So Who’s the Most Dominant?

It’s close, but the evidence slightly favors the retired southpaw.

Johnson was not quite as consistent as King Felix has been. Still, we stumble upon far more instances of his near invincibility.

Both of these phenoms pitched no-hitters for Seattle, and they both received their league’s ultimate compliment, a Cy Young Award.

As Hernandez’s seven-year, $175 million contract extension plays out, we’ll have plenty of chances to revisit this career comparison.

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Jacoby Ellsbury will no doubt be one of the top free agents available this offseason.

The Boston Red Sox outfielder is represented by Scott Boras, which means Ellsbury’s services will likely go to the highest bidder.

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports the Seattle Mariners could be that team to get Ellsbury:

The M’s are deep in young, affordable position players, with a mere $33.257 million committed to their 2014 payroll, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Ellsbury, who is from Madras, Or., and attended Oregon State, could fill two voids, leading off and playing center field.

If this were to come to fruition, how would Ellsbury fit in with the Mariners lineup and Safeco Field?

Inside the Numbers

There’s no doubt adding Ellsbury to the leadoff spot and center field would benefit the Mariners, both offensively and defensively.

For starters, let’s look at the numbers over the last three years (through Monday):

The numbers clearly show Ellsbury would provide the Mariners an upgrade on offense at both leadoff and from center field.

While the Mariners haven’t been known as much of a running team this year (50 stolen-base attempts), that doesn’t mean their philosophy won’t change in the future.

All it takes is a speedster at the top of the lineup, and everything changes.

Safeco Field

The place where Ellsbury would play also could play a large role.

Safeco Field is almost similarly shaped as Fenway Park is. Batting left-handed, Ellsbury will be able to take advantage of the deep gaps in left-center. 

The main difference is he’ll have 15 feet less to hit it if he gets a hold of one, as the deepest part of Safeco is 405 feet, compared to 420 feet at Fenway.

One advantage Fenway does have here, however, is the various nooks and crannies along the outfield wall. 

The Key

While having Ellsbury would be a nice addition, the Mariners must also ensure there is power in the lineup behind him.

Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales are both free agents, and re-signing at least one is a must. 

There are no great offensive prospects coming up from the minor leagues, so the Mariners are going to have to look to spend on a few more free agents as well.

With multiple holes on the diamond, just Ellsbury and one of Morales or Morse won’t do the trick. A good No. 2 hitter will be huge, as will the continued progression of Kyle Seager. 

If all of those pieces can fall into place, the Mariners just might make some noise in 2014.

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It’s not even July and already we’ve seen some prominent players sent down in the Seattle Mariners system. A season that was supposed be one of contention and progress has, thus far, been yet another year of rebuilding and disappointment.

The Mariners are currently 35-45, 12 games back in the American League West. Barring a drastic turnaround, they’ll be sellers at the trade deadline, allowing for some young prospects to get a taste of major league action, a process all too familiar among the club and its fans by now.

We’re halfway through the marathon that is an MLB season, and here are predictions for every Mariners player for the second half.

All statistics via ESPN.com and MLB.com.

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As of June 27, the Seattle Mariners are 12 games out of first place. In this case, 12 is not a particularly good number. One could argue that 12 is a number that is too high to realistically overcome, even with months to go in the season.

Is the 2013 season on the brink of disaster? Will fans already be forced to start looking forward to 2014?

Numbers are a funny part of sports, particularly since they can change so quickly. If the Mariners were to go on a nice winning streak of six to eight games and the Oakland A’s and Texas Rangers were to struggle, the landscape could look very different. Realistically, that is not necessarily going to happen. For Seattle to contend, they would likely need to chip away at the lead over a period of months and maintain a pattern of sustained winning.

It may be fair to suggest that confidence in such a scenario is weakening by the day.

As the Mariners approach the trade deadline along with the rest of the league, there will be the inevitable question of whether this team is a “buyer” or a “seller.” Interestingly, ESPN currently has the Mariners listed as “Buyer or Seller.”

Exactly. The Mariners are on the brink of…disaster? A dramatic turnaround? Your guess is as good as mine.

Fans that were hoping to see some of the hot young prospects make it to the show have not been disappointed. Nick Franklin has arrived, as has Mike Zunino. Franklin, in particular, looks like he belongs. The latest promotion is Brad Miller, who has been hitting very well (.356) in Tacoma. Management obviously hopes that Miller’s hot bat can infuse some life into this lineup.

Keep the prospects coming. Will we have a Taijuan Walker sighting soon?

Speaking of lineup changes, did anyone predict this lineup (provided by Greg Johns of MLB.com) in spring training or at the beginning of the season?

There are fans that obviously want to stay optimistic. The season is not lost just yet, and this team still has a lot of potential. Truthfully, there is a very nice mix of veterans and youngsters in this lineup. They just need something. A spark. Some momentum.

A belief that this team can win?

If the Mariners do fall further behind, the trade talk is really going to heat up, particularly as it pertains to players like Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, Michael Morse, Jason Bay and Hisashi Iwakuma. As much as media outlets will find it logical for the Mariners to continue being the farm system for big market teams, there really isn’t a great incentive to make certain deals.

Unless the Mariners get an overwhelming offer for someone like Morales, it makes more sense to keep him, utilize his bat, make a qualifying offer at the end of the season and get a draft pick when he signs a lucrative deal somewhere else. Of course, could it possibly be that this team could actually come back and make a run at the division?

The future is really starting to arrive in Seattle. Let’s see what they can do. If the Mariners don’t heat up soon, this season could be completely lost and success might need to wait.

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Well, that was about as short lived as humanly possible.

Just two days after returning from the 60-day designated list, Franklin Gutierrez‘ is officially back on the 15-day disabled list with a hamstring injury. The initial diagnosis does not look good:

Wedge says it will be 3 or 4 days until team can get a good look at Gutierrez’s hamstring and properly assess it. He’ll be out a while.

— Geoff Baker (@gbakermariners) June 25, 2013

For a Mariners team that was desperately looking for another offensive spark, Gutierrez’ injury marks another disappointing chapter over the last three seasons with Seattle. This one very well could be his last.

With Gutierrez’ roster spot open, the Mariners have officially recalled Dustin Ackley, who will be expected to man the outfield, according to Greg Johns of MLB.com:

Dustin Ackley will play outfield, with rookie Nick Franklin playing well at second base.

— Greg Johns (@GregJohnsMLB) June 25, 2013

As Greg Johns points out, Franklin’s emergence at second base has helped pave the way for Dustin Ackley‘s move back to the outfield. Ackley originally played in the outfield as a freshman at the University of North Carolina, before a shoulder surgery forced him to move to first base. 

Seattle fans will certainly be interested to see how Ackley plays in the outfield for the M’s, but the real story here is the on-going health problems for Gutierrez.

Once considered one of the best young outfielders in the game, Guti has struggled to stay healthy for the Mariners over the last three seasons—spending more than half of that time on the DL:

This is Franklin Gutierrez’s sixth DL stint in past 3 years. Has played just 150 of team’s last 400 games.

— Greg Johns (@GregJohnsMLB) June 25, 2013

Over the years, Gutierrez has suffered from a wide array of injuries that have included irritable bowel syndrome, a concussion, pain in his throwing arm and his recent string of leg and hip injuries. These most recent incidents have been attributed to a genetic disorder that has caused inflammation in his joints, which Gutierrez had recently started taking medicine for.

At this point, one has to start to wonder whether or not this will be the last time Seattle fans see Gutierrez patrolling the outfield at Safeco. With the season already in jeopardy, it would not be a shock to see the Mariners look to give other players a chance in the outfield moving forward, especially with Guti‘s contract set to expire at the end of this season.

Dustin Ackley will most likely see the majority of the time in center moving forward, with young players such as Abraham Almonte, Stefen Romero and possibly Julio Morban seeing time in the outfield this season as well.

Either way, Franklin Gutierrez’ latest setback may signal the end of his time in Seattle. As much of a fan favorite as he was, Gutierrez will most likely go down as just another disappointment in an ever growing list for Mariners fans.

For more Mariners coverage and baseball jargon, follow me on Twitter. You’ll be glad you did.

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