Kuzul

SEATTLE MARINERS

Last Year: 61-101, fourth in AL West  

Manager: Eric Wedge

PROJECTED LINEUP 

C- Miguel Olivio (R) 

1B- Justin Smoak (S)

2B- Brendan Ryan (R) or Adam Kennedy (L)

3B- Chone Figgins (S) 

SS- Jack Wilson (R)

LF- Milton Bradley (S)

CF- Franklin Gutierrez (R)

RF- Ichiro Suzuki (L)

DH- Jack Cust (L)

The Mariners‘ offense ranked last in AVG, OBP, and SLG in 2010.

One of the major problems came from the DH position, and GM Jack Zduriencik signed Jack Cust to bring some power and OBP to the lineup. Cust’s power dropped in 2010, but his average did go up.

I expect his power and average to return to previous levels (25 home runs, .235/.370/.420).

Ichiro Suzuki remains the Mariners’ best offensive weapon, and one of the most consistent hitters in baseball. Ichiro will get his 200-plus hits with 6-10 home runs, but it is tough to predict whether he will have one of his monster years because of his reliance on balls put into play.

Franklin Gutierrez has shown some offensive production in years past, but his main contributions come with the glove. He will swipe 20 bags, add 15 home runs, and put up a predictable line of .260/.320/.400.

Milton Bradley remains an enigma at the plate despite his natural ability. His injuries and fragile mindset don’t keep him on the field that often, and I expect Michael Saunders to replace him in LF by the end of the year.

However, a solid year is not out of the question. 

The infield production remains an even larger question mark for this club. Justin Smoak, the main piece in the Cliff Lee deal, showed some real holes in his swing during his time in the majors in 2010.

I think his power and OBP will be fine this season, but it may take a year or two for his average to really improve. I see him hitting 20 home runs with a .240/.340/.410 line.

Brendan Ryan and Adam Kennedy don’t provide much offense at 2B, and Jack Wilson provides the same punch. I expect 12 to 15 home runs out of the three of them.

Chone Figgins had a rough first half at the plate in 2010. He was able to rebound to put up respectable numbers, and I think a switch to 3B might clear his head a bit. I see Figgins putting up a line of .280/.370/.350 and 40-plus stolen bases.

Miguel Olivo will hit approximately 15 home runs from the catcher position. However, Olivo does strike out in almost 30 percent of his ABs. 

The Mariners had the 10th best defense (UZR) in 2010. Safeco Field has an expansive outfield, and the Mariners have the players to cover it.

Ichiro is considered one of the best right fielders in baseball, and Franklin Gutierrez is one of the best in CF. Milton Bradley is an adequate defender in LF.

Justin Smoak anchors the infield, providing above-average defense at first. The Mariners are sure up the middle with Brendan Ryan and Adam Kennedy providing above-average defense at 2B and Jack Wilson at SS. Chone Figgins will move from 2B to his stronger defensive position at 3B.

At catcher, Miguel Olivo has one of the best arms behind the plate, but he struggles with his receiving. 

BENCH

OF- Michael Saunders (L) or Ryan Langerhans (L)

IF- Brendan Ryan (R) or Adam Kennedy (L)

1B/OF- Mike Carp (L) 

C- Adam Moore (R)

STARTING ROTATION

RHP- Felix Hernandez 

LHP- Jason Vargas 

RHP- Doug Fister 

LHP- Erik Bedard

RHP- Michael Pineda  

Felix Hernandez, an injury-rattled former All-Star, two soft-tossers and a rookie make up the Mariners’ rotation.

Hernandez, the 2010 AL Cy Young Award winner, anchors the staff. He throws two fastballs that average 94.6 MPH, a change-up that acts like a splitter and two very good breaking balls.

He has the whole package, and the only question is whether the offense will score enough for him to have a winning record.

Jason Vargas is a soft-tossing lefty who uses a lot of change-ups to keep hitters off balance. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who benefits from pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.

Doug Fister is the right-handed version of Vargas, and is expected to put up similar numbers. Both should average around 5 K/9 and 2 BB/9 and have an ERA in the mid-4’s. Fister and Vargas would be fine at the back of the rotation, but they shouldn’t be counted on to anchor the middle of the staff. 

I don’t think anyone knows what to expect from Erik Bedard this season.

He missed all of 2010, and only made 15 starts in 2008 and 2009. Bedard has said he feels like his old self.

If he pitches like his old self, Seattle could get some very good prospects during the year if they decide to trade him. Bedard throws a low-90s fastball, but he can strike out a hitter per inning with his devastating curveball.

Michael Pineda will be the fifth starter for the club, and I detail his season later in the preview.

BULLPEN

RHP- David Aardsma (2010 Closer; uncertain when he will return from hip surgery)

RHP- Brandon League (Closer)

RHP- Chris Ray

RHP- Dan Cortes 

LHP- Aaron Laffey  

RHP- Josh Leuke 

RHP- Jamey Wright 

LHP- Luke French 

David Aardsma had hip surgery in the offseason, and it’s unclear when he will be ready to pitch for the big league club. Brandon League will take over the closer spot, and might hang onto it if he pitches well.

Aardsma was the talk of trade rumors in the offseason, so if he comes back strong, he will be a candidate to be dealt during the summer.

League throws a hard two-seamer at 95.6 MPH with a good slider and splitter. He should average 7 K/9 innings, and a mid-3’s ERA. Dan Cortes, who throws in the mid-90s, will get a shot to be the primary set-up man for League.

Aaron Laffey will be the primary lefty coming out of the pen. Laffey relies on his 87 MPH fastball and good slider to get lefties out, but he doesn’t have spectacular numbers against them.

Chris Ray was signed on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. Ray still throws hard, but his 5 K/9 rate was very underwhelming.

Josh Lueke may get a shot to join the bullpen in his rookie season with the club.

Jamey Wright has a terrible career K/BB ratio, and will probably get mop-up work in the beginning of the season. Luke French will be the long reliever to start the year.

NOTABLE NON-ROSTER INVITEES

RHP- Chris Ray

RHP- Manny Delcarmen 

RHP- Jamey Wright

RHP- Denny Bautista 

RHP- Justin Miller 

LHP- Nate Robertson 

C- Josh Bard

IF- Adam Kennedy (L)

IF- Luis Rodriguez (S)

OF- Gabe Gross (L)

OF- Ryan Langerhans (L)

PROSPECTS TO WATCH

2B Dustin Ackley (L)

I don’t see anyone from this group having a breakout season, so I’ll mention two prospects who should have an impact.

Baseball America ranks Ackley as the best prospect in the Mariners organization. He isn’t great defensively at 2B, but many are impressed with his plate discipline. His power hasn’t come along yet, but the Mariners hope that will develop this year.

He should be in the majors by the end of the year.  

 Michael Pineda 

The 22-year-old Pineda is battling for a spot in the rotation right now, but it makes sense for him to start the season in AAA. Pineda is considered the Mariners’ top prospect, and he could use a little more seasoning in the minors.

His best pitch is a mid-90s sinking fastball, and he mixes it in with an improving slider and inconsistent changeup. The change makes him vulnerable to left-handed hitters, but I think he will impress in his starts to begin the season. 

PROJECTED FINISH – 4th in AL West 

Seattle isn’t going to contend this year, but 2011 will not be as terrible as 2010. The offense should be slightly improved, and the bullpen might have some bright spots.

GM Jack Zduriencik needs Erik Bedard to bounce back in order to get some more prospects and to help the rotation early on. While there is some upside to this club, the Mariners will probably finish with about 90 losses. 

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During their primes Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey, Jr. were the two greatest hitters of their era.

Both second-generation ballplayers, having famous fathers who had enjoyed their own successful careers, Bonds and Griffey were lifelong acquaintances that had similar career paths and comparable numbers through their primes.

While their paths to Major League Baseball were similar, their legacies would wind up very different.

Barry Bonds debuted with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1986 and went on to finish sixth in Rookie of the Year voting at the age of 21. He would play seven seasons for the Pirates, totaling 176 career home runs, batting .275 and winning two MVP awards, before signing as a free agent with the San Francisco Giants in 1993.

From 1993-2007, Bonds would rewrite the history books while wearing a San Francisco Giants uniform, playing for the team his father had. Bonds would go on to win six more MVP awards during that span and amass an unbelievable 586 additional home runs, including a single-season record 73 home runs in 2001. By the time Barry would finish playing his final major-league game in 2007, he would own the career record for home runs with 762.

Ken Griffey, Jr. had his own share of early success. Griffey debuted with the Seattle Mariners in 1989 at the age of 19 and finished third in Rookie of the Year voting. In 11 seasons with the Mariners, Griffey would receive MVP votes in nine seasons, winning the 1997 MVP award.

Griffey would hit 398 career home runs in his first stint with the Mariners while batting .299 over the 11-year span. The Seattle Mariners truly had the most iconic player of his generation during his prime.

In 2000, at the age of 30, Griffey requested and was granted a trade to Cincinnati in order to play closer to his home in Florida. Griffey’s tenure with the Reds was marred with injuries and was nowhere close to the elite level of play he enjoyed while a member of the Mariners. While playing for Cincinnati, Griffey would enjoy several key milestones: Home runs number 400, 500 and 600 would all come while wearing the same Reds uniform his father wore.

In 2008 the Reds traded Griffey to the Chicago White Sox for the remainder of the season. In 2009, Junior would re-sign with the Seattle Mariners to bring his career full circle and eventually retire with the team that gave him his start. Griffey retired in the middle of last season with 630 career home runs, 132 behind his longtime friend, Barry Bonds.

It was long before their careers wound down, though, that Bonds and Griffey found themselves heading in different directions.

Following the conclusion of the home run chase between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa in 1998 that captured the attention of the country, Bonds and Griffey reportedly met in Florida at Griffey’s house. The two had a discussion that would see them make very different decisions that will ultimately affect how both are remembered.

In his book Love Me, Hate Me, Jeff Pearlman tells a story in which Bonds met with Griffey and confided in his longtime friend over dinner that he was about to start taking some “hard-core stuff.” Bonds was jealous of the attention that McGwire and Sosa received, feeling that he was the superior athlete and ballplayer and was not receiving his due recognition. While Bonds chose to elevate his game by cheating, Griffey chose to stay clean.

For the record, Griffey defended Bonds and stated to MLB.com back in 2006 that he did not recall such a conversation ever taking place.

Regardless of whether or not the conversation happened, the decision by Bonds to use steroids, and Griffey to remain clean, alters the outcomes of two great careers.

Both players are now out of the game; only memories of their accomplishments remain. Bonds was shunned by all 30 teams following the 2007 season, and Griffey retired in the middle of the 2010 season quietly and without any fanfare—a sad ending to the careers of two of baseball’s greatest players.

In neither case was it the end to their baseball stories though.

Barry Bonds will be eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame following the 2012 season. Griffey will be eligible after 2015. Would you care to wager a guess as to which player is enshrined first?

As spring training 2011 winds down and today’s major leaguers prepare for the regular season, the current role that each player holds tells the tale.

Griffey is a special instructor in Mariners spring training and a special assistant to the front office. Griffey is still embraced within the game of baseball.

Bonds, shunned by San Francisco Giants ownership, is sitting in a federal courtroom listening to testimony as a federal grand jury decides if he perjured himself in stating that he never knowingly used performance-enhancing drugs.

Details of Bonds’ steroid use will undoubtedly emerge and stick in the minds of the fans and baseball writers who will eventually decide Bonds’ fate in baseball immortality. In reality, though, no additional details are really necessary. Bonds was convicted in the court of public opinion long ago.

As a result, 762 is not the same as 755; 73 is not as important as 61. Hank Aaron is still the king, and Roger Maris is still the man to beat for the single-season mark.

The memory of Barry Bonds is not the all-around athlete that won MVP awards in the early 1990s for the Pirates or the player the Giants signed that helped them to the playoffs in 1997. That slender athlete that could hit for average and power, play Gold Glove defense and was a constant threat on the basepaths is long forgotten, replaced by the mutation that emerged as a result of his dealings with BALCO.

The memory of Ken Griffey, Jr., on the other hand, is still that fun-loving, backwards-hat-wearing ballplayer that made the game look easy. Yes, we will remember that Griffey was injured more often than not as his career wound down, but there is not a hint of any wrongdoing. Had Griffey had better luck and remained healthy, he could have stood ahead of Bonds in the record books. It will be Griffey that enjoys induction into Cooperstown in his first year of eligibility, while Bonds waits.

While 630 stands just below Willie Mays in fifth on the all-time home run list, at least to me, it stands above 762.

Brandon McClintock covers Major League Baseball for BleacherReport.com. You can follow Brandon on twitter @BMcClintock_BR.

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Seattle Mariners (2010 record: 61-101)

Many pundits believed the Mariners could win the American League West last season—I am numbered among those people. The joke was on us.

Instead of making a run at the Angels and the Rangers, the Mariners turned in one of the more disappointing efforts in major league history, going 61-101.

In the process, the club became the first team with a $100 million-plus payroll to lose 100 games in a season.

The primary culprit? An offense that averaged just 3.2 runs per game, finishing last in the league in runs while scoring 100 runs fewer than the next worst offense (Baltimore).

GM Jack Zduriencik seems to have gotten the message. The ballclub made several upgrades to the lineup—not that the new players are going to vault the offense to the top of the league or even league average.

Notable additions: OF/DH Jack Cust, 2B Adam Kennedy, C Miguel Olivo, SS Brendan Ryan

Notable subtractions: 1B Russell Branyan, INF Jose Lopez

The offense:

Catcher: Miguel Olivo

Infield: Justin Smoak (1B), Brendan Ryan (2B), Jack Wilson (SS) and Chone Figgins (3B)

Outfield: Michael Saunders (LF), Franklin Gutierrez (CF) and Ichiro Suzuki (RF)

Designated Hitter: Jack Cust

The offense scored fewer runs than any team in a full season since 1972. Afterwards, the front office bid adieu to Branyan (.215 BA), Kotchman (.217) and Lopez (.239 BA), and put Adam Moore (.195) on the bench.

In their place, the team will field Smoak, who was acquired at last year’s trade deadline, Cust (.272, with 13 HR last year), Brendan Ryan (career .259 average) and Olivo (who hit .269 with 14 HR last year). Granted, the lineup isn’t suddenly filled with All Stars, but it will be better than it was last season.

Smoak struggled in his first full season in the big leagues (.218 BA), but his minor league pedigree (he has a career .404 OBP) suggests that he will prosper in The Show.

Cust will provide basically the same production as Branyan, with a better batting average and a 15-point increase in OPS+.

Ryan has the potential to develop into a league average hitter while providing outstanding defense, while Lopez never reached the level of productivity that was projected for him.

Olivo provides a veteran presence behind the plate and will be a substantial improvement on Moore…he is, as they say, addition by subtraction. While he won’t necessarily be a substantial force on offense, he will not be a black hole, either.

The organization may also be in the process of addressing another of its offensive issues, as Ryan may well slide to shortstop to replace Josh Wilson (.229) in the lineup. He is just as capable on defense, and his move to shortstop would allow Adam Kennedy (who owns a .275 career BA) to move into the lineup at second base until Dustin Ackley is ready to join the M’s at midseason.

Figgins submitted his worst offensive performance as a big leaguer last year (.259, with one HR and 35 RBI in 602 AB), a result which may have been related to his switch to second base. It wasn’t the kind of performance Zduriencik expected when he handed him a $34.5 million contract last winter. He will move back to third base in 2011, and I expect the move will result in dramatically improved offense.

Franklin Gutierrez has had a roller coaster career thus far, sandwiching a good offensive season between two subpar campaigns. While the center fielder is coming off one of his lesser years, I foresee improvement from him in 2011.

He makes decent contact (a career 77 percent contact rate) and his down seasons were largely based on bad luck (he had a 30 percent hit rate both seasons). Assuming even a marginal increase in that number, he should hit closer to .270, with 15 HR and 70 RBI (plus or minus).

Left field is up in the air. Michael Saunders will have first shot at winning the job, but after hitting just .211 last year, his hold on the job is tenuous at best. Milton Bradley is waiting in the wings if Saunders falls on his face, but MB has had more than his fair share of personal problems throughout his career and he isn’t the answer over the long term.

And that leaves just Ichiro to discuss—and what is there that can be said about him that hasn’t already been said. While he is getting a little long in the tooth, he just keeps on ticking. He arrived in the US amid much fanfare in 2001, after having hit .340 or higher over seven straight seasons in Japan.

He has had 200 or more hits in each of his 10 seasons in the United States, hitting .300, making the All Star team and earning a Gold Glove each year, winning three Silver Slugger Awards and being selected as MVP and Rookie of the Year in 2001. There isn’t much more he can do, except to keep doing what he has ALWAYS done.

The pitching staff:

Rotation: RHP Felix Hernandez, LHP Jason Vargas, RHP Doug Fister, LHP Erik Bedard and RHP Michael Pineda

Closer: RHP David Aardsma

“King Felix” Hernandez is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. While he went just 13-12 last season, he posted a career-best 2.27 ERA and 1.057 WHIP and earned the Cy Young Award. If he had received any semblance of run support he would have won 20-plus games.

Vargas went 9-12, with a 3.78 ERA and 1.25 WHIP while pitching nearly 200 innings last year. It was clearly the best season of his young career, but it seems likely that he will not be able to repeat that performance moving forward. He is a finesse guy who pitches to contact and gives up a lot of fly balls.

While the fly balls won’t necessarily hurt him in spacious Safeco Field, they could be his undoing on the road. Last year’s success was driven by a 28 percent hit rate. When that number regresses to 32 percent (+/-) his ERA will approach 4.50.

Fister, likewise, pitches to contact. While he doesn’t surrender a lot of fly balls, he is not going to blow people away (4.9 K-rate). He induces a fair number of ground balls, and thus his productivity will be closely tied to the quality of his infield defense, and luck (his hit rate and strand rates will have to be favorable for him to succeed as a member of the starting rotation).

Bedard has been a bust in Seattle, but he still has the stuff to be one of the better pitchers in baseball when he’s healthy. The problem is that he hasn’t made more than 15 starts in either of his first three seasons with Seattle (he did not pitch at all last season).

Still, he posted a 5-3 record and a 2.82 ERA in 2009, clearly showing he retains the kind of skills he had in Baltimore when the Mariners acquired him for five players, including OF Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill, top pitching prospect Chris Tillman and two others.

Pineda is the organization’s top prospect. Last year, he went 11-4, 3.36, between Double A and Triple A. He will start the year in the M’s rotation and should secure a permanent job with the big club as long as he throws strikes.

Closer Aardsma (hip) will be on the shelf at the start of the season, with Brandon League filling in for the first few weeks. Aardsma’s skill set is somewhat marginal… his success in Seattle was created on an extremely low hit rate (25 percent) over his first two years.

He gives up LOTS of fly balls, which often is not a favorable indication for closers. He’ll likely see some increase in his hit rate, which will cause his overall numbers to decline.

Prediction for 2011: 4th place (60-102)

I have actually downgraded my expectations for the Mariners over the last two months. The more I examine the numbers, the more likely it appears they will be a little worse this year as opposed to a little better.

The offense will be marginally better this season, but that isn’t saying very much, and a few more runs won’t be nearly enough to make the team respectable. As I wrote previously, even a sizable increase of 99 runs scored would still leave them in last place in the AL in runs.

No, the issue this year is going to be on the mound.

Hernandez will be the foundation of a weak rotation. Cliff Lee was traded last summer, and his departure left the ballclub with a collection of castoffs to fill out the rotation. I expect Bedard will be healthy this year and finally provide the organization with a return on its sizable investment in him, but the rest of the rotation is problematic.

Pineda will be good, but he is a rookie and will have to go through the typical ups and downs of a rookie pitcher. Vargas and Fister will both see a regression in their peripherals…that which will cause them to have far less success than they had last year.

Aardsma won’t last the year as the team’s closer, and I suspect League won’t have much more success. Look for someone like Lueke or Dan Cortes to take over the closer’s role in the second half.

But by then it won’t matter for the M’s, except in terms of 2012.

Top Five Prospects:

1. Michael Pineda, RHP
2. Dustin Ackley, 2B
3. Nick Franklin, SS
4. Johermyn Chavez, OF
5. TiJuan Walker, RHP

Most people place Ackley atop their list of Mariners prospects and project him as a future superstar, but not me. I happen to like Pineda much better in terms of being an “impact player” over the next several years. While Ackley may be the safer bet, I personally think his upside is limited (.300 hitter, with marginal power, good speed and an average glove). Nothing about him screams “superstar” to me. Sorry, M’s fans.

On the other hand, I think Pineda will be an impactful starting pitcher who will slot into the M’s rotation right behind Hernandez by 2013. The 22-year-old has an explosive mid-90s fastball with lots of life that tops out at over 100 MPH.

He has improved both of his off speed pitches to the point where they are at least major league average. He has learned to stay on top of his slider more consistently, making it a second quality out pitch. He has also learned to maintain his arm speed on his changeup, in the process developing a pitch that will keep hitters honest.

Over the next couple of years he will refine his mechanics and learn to command the ball better (cutting down on walks and pinpointing the ball within the strike zone). And then, King Felix will once again be a part of a dynamic one-two punch atop the rotation.

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Felix Hernandez in pinstripes is something that a lot of people still see as a possibility, even as early as this season.

A lot has been ballyhooed about the reigning Cy Young’s status with the Mariners, his no-trade clause and whether or not the Mariners should consider shipping off their ace for a true king’s ransom.

Stephen Meyer, who heads up the MLB content team here on Bleacher Report, put together a logical piece discussing Felix’s no-trade clause and why it doesn’t mean he couldn’t be traded to one of the listed teams.

Stephen made a lot of solid points. Often times, no-trade clauses are misconstrued as a player’s desire not to go to a specific team.

In reality, players of Felix’s ilk retain smart agents who make sure their client has leverage in any trade negotiation.

That said, there are some things with Stephen’s piece I disagree with. These issues aren’t something I’d use to claim he’s wrong per say, but rather to play devil’s advocate and point out some things that people who follow the Mariners more closely may be privy to.

Here are three major points to counter his argument that Felix could indeed be traded this season:

1. Mariners General Manager Jack Zduriencik and his front office are renowned around the league as a group that hold their cards extremely close to their vests. It was for that reason that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. approached Zduriencik at the winter meetings a year ago to discuss a potential Cliff Lee deal.

Ken Rosenthal, probably the most connected reporter in baseball, was finally able to sniff out some details, but the Mariners’ involvement remained a secret until the deal was virtually done.

What this all means is that the Mariners don’t talk about stuff—not their GM nor his employees.

When Zduriencik does talk, you can walk the check into the bank and cash it without issue. He’s tight-lipped, giving canned answers often, but has no problem being candid once a decision is made.

His continued insistence that Felix isn’t going anywhere shouldn’t be looked at as posturing. The depth of his insistence shows that he and ownership have no desire to trade Hernandez.

2. Felix has been up front about his desire to stay in Seattle. Of course, the no-trade clause doesn’t mean things can’t change, but usually players give canned responses like “This is where I am now, we’ll see what the future holds” if they aren’t sure or have other plans.

Sometimes, you can just read people.

The way Felix’s face lights up when he talks about Seattle, it doesn’t look like a guy who is sick of losing or wants to force his way out.

3. The team would need motivation to trade him.

Rosenthal and I exchanged some tweets about this. He believes that the time is now, while the return would be the greatest, for the Mariners to consider a deal.

He and others may believe that a full rebuild should be done at this point, considering the state of both the big league roster and farm system.

While I agree with that logic, Felix is in a special category. I think people forget that he still has to pay a surcharge to rent a car.

He’ll turn 25 in time for his third start of the season.

Furthermore, the hardest thing for any team to get is a bone fide No. 1 starter.

Of the names that people have mentioned that could come back from New York, there is no certainty any will yield the value Felix already has at a young age.

Look, I’m the first guy that is willing to let his emotional attachment to a player go if a deal makes sense. As a Mariners fan, I’ve become an expert at this as our superstars have fled the scene of the accident.

In this case, though, you have a player that is far too special to flip for some unproven prospects—each with their own potential issues.

Next season, the club will be another year removed from the mess that Bill Bavasi left. They’ll finally have some payroll flexibility to make roster moves that come from places other than the scrap heap and rehab room.

The Mariners don’t need to rebuild without Felix Hernandez. They need to build around him.

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Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has been one of the hottest stories of the MLB offseason, but not resulting from his 2010 Cy Young or his actions on or off the field.

Trade speculation has been rampant and relentless regarding the American League’s best pitcher, as Hernandez’s Mariners team walks the tightrope of adding payroll or starting from scratch in a rebuild.

FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi recently revealed eight of the 10 teams in Hernandez’s much-discussed no-trade clause, and all of them were high-profile and high-payroll organizations.

The list included the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs—which inevitably caused outcry for the “King Felix to the Yankees” talk to stop for good.

The problem with that logic is a clear misunderstanding of the no-trade process and why a pitcher of Hernandez’s skill set would construct one in this framework.

Are we to believe that King Felix, a man with ice water running through his veins and an unrelenting competitiveness, would suddenly get cold feet about large-market baseball?

Additionally, we’re to take seriously the notion he would all but eliminate every MLB team that could pay the astronomical salary he’ll command when the time comes for an extension?

This no-trade construction is simply a savvy move by an agent that is doing his job—maximizing the earning potential of his best and most desirable client.

The Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox and Cubs of the world are included not because Hernandez would never pitch there.

These teams are instead chosen for two key reasons:

1. The larger payroll markets are most likely to not only afford Felix’s salary in the short and long term, but also pursue a trade for him in order to make a run at a title.

2. Players with no-trade clauses in their contracts have the ability to be “compensated for forfeiture” of that right in order to complete a deal. As a result, Felix can essentially be “bought out” without losing a dime of his contractual value ($20.03 million per year from 2012 to 2014).

Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik has repeatedly shot down any rumors of the situation, and he has no motivation to do otherwise. It is far too early to even consider moving your franchise player—especially in the most wide-open AL West in recent memory.

Felix is happy in Seattle, the Mariners are thrilled to have him and they have every reason to believe they’ll contend in the near future.

Do I believe that a trade is imminent in 2011? No, absolutely not. Do I believe a third season in four years of between 60 and 65 victories could begin to sway that opinion after 2011? Yes, I do.

If Seattle struggles as a franchise until the July 2012 trading deadline, they will be forced to reevaluate the future of the organization—including Ichiro Suzuki in his contract year and Felix representing about 50 percent of current 2013 payroll obligations.

They will have plenty of money to spend and prospects to groom over the next 12 months, but much like LeBron James in Cleveland, they’ll have to show Felix he can win a title there…and soon.

The odds of Hernandez ending up in pinstripes—or any other MLB uniform—is very slim in 2011. They are not even one percentage point lower, however, than they were before word of his no-trade reached the news wire.

If Felix stays a Mariner for the duration of his contract, it will be because they build a team around him, maintain a stable financial position and establish the groundwork for a World Series contender.

It will not, however, be based on a disinterest in pitching for large-market teams or a devout commitment to his no-trade clause.

It is important to first understand the real reasons behind a no-trade before assuming a player’s motive.

Felix would not prefer to pitch in Cleveland or Kansas City as opposed to New York or Chicago, but that does not mean he will move out of Seattle in the near future, either.

One thing can be said for certain amidst all of the speculation and frustration: Interested teams will never stop trying to change Seattle’s mind.

The Mariners would demand a player ransom that could make the Twins feel like they got fleeced in the AJ Pierzynski deal, but this would be one occasion where a US organization would negotiate with terrorists.

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As the persistent Arizona sun beats down on the backs of the 2011 Seattle Mariners, the biggest question in the minds of fans—besides “when oh when will we be relevant again­?”—is when Dustin Ackley will be ready for the Show. 

The Mariners’ offseason middle infield moves say a great deal about the timetable for their biggest prospect since King Felix matriculated.

With Jack and Josh Wilson already on the roster and able to man any of the infield spots, the Mariners were able to compensate for the loss of Jose Lopez—albeit with a pair of bats that would fit in better in Everett than Seattle. 

Chone Figgins is set to slide back to the hot corner, where he is not only a better fielder, but also a drastically better hitter. (That is, assuming he is not traded). The Mariners also traded for Brendan Ryan, one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, and signed World Series-winning second baseman Adam Kennedy to a minor league contract.

Five serviceable infielders are more than enough for a 25-man opening day roster, and spring training has shown how creative new manager Eric Wedge is willing to be to get the bats into his lineup. Kennedy recently received his first spring start in left field, a first in his twelve-year career. 

Meanwhile Jack Wilson—former sabermetrics-anointed best defensive shortstop in baseball—and Brendan Ryan—reigning best defensive shortstop in baseball—are flipping between second base and shortstop. Josh Wilson has spent time at all three skill positions in the infield and will presumably fill the utility backup role he played last year.

The best guess going in to the season is that Jack Wilson will man the shortstop position with Ryan playing second base—a waste of Ryan’s relative youth and his defensive prime. Figgins will hit in the two hole and play third base, and Josh Wilson will back the three of them up. 

A week ago, I would have projected Kennedy to start the season in Tacoma, but as he displays his defensive versatility in March he may end up with the 25th spot on the roster.

Selfishly, I’d love to see Ack start April 1 at second base, but leaving him in AAA until roster expansion is the right thing to do. As athletic as he is, he is still below average defensively at second base (though he did roll a nice double play earlier this week). 

His bat came around in a big way following his promotion to AAA last year, and he continues to hit well this spring. He had a pinch-hit RBI double late in a 2-0 win over the Angels. On Monday morning he followed up with a home run in the “B Game” and capped that off with a pinch-hit, two-strike single up the middle on an off-speed pitch that had him fooled. So yes, it appears the kid is seeing the ball well.

The issue is that his bat likely won’t be the difference between contention or not (Maybe if the Mariners had four or five of him, and he could pitch…). If Nick Franklin, who has shown flashes of brilliance as the Mariners shortstop of the future, can put it all together in the next few years (he’s only 20), he and Ackley will be a formidable top-of-the-lineup duo. But that’s in 2014, not 2011.

So as much as I hate to admit it, Ack will most likely have to wait until September.  There’s an outside chance the Mariners contend, in which case they would have to consider seeing what Ackley can do at a major league level. It is not as if Ryan, Wilson, Wilson and Kennedy are going to tear the cover off the ball at the middle infield positions.

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For the first time since Richard Nixon was president, no big league team will break spring training camp with a Ken Griffey on its roster—Senior or Junior.

Every April from 1974 through 2010, there was a Ken Griffey in the majors. First it was the original Griffey—Senior—who broke into the bigs with the Cincinnati Reds and who kept playing until his baby boy grew up and was old enough to be his teammate with the Seattle Mariners in 1990.

Then there was Junior, making his big league debut in 1989 with peach fuzz as a 19-year-old with the Mariners.

Junior gutted it out until age 40, when his body creaked for the last time, and he retired last June, once again a member of the Mariners after a couple of stops in between.

Now there are no more Ken Griffeys, for the first time since 1973.

Combined, Senior and Junior banged out 4,924 hits, slugged 782 home runs and drove in 2,695 runs. They were the John and John Quincy Adams of baseball.

More accurately, the Griffeys were a family business the same way the Mafia was in concrete and restaurant linens.

But no longer.

Junior called it quits last year, and it wasn’t the clean break that someone of his stature should have enjoyed.

Junior was 40, he was hitting less than .200, his power was gone and bottom-feeding bloggers like yours truly were calling for him to hang up his spikes and save himself further embarrassment.

There was an unseemly story of Junior falling asleep in the Mariners clubhouse—during a game. Worse, the leak came from Griffey’s own teammates, who went to the media before going to Junior himself.

Griffey was back where it all began—Seattle—but the homecoming was awkward, and if there was anything storybook about it, then it was penned by the Brothers Grimm.

It was a far cry from 1989, when the teenaged Griffey bounded into the majors with a smile that matched his range in center field—as broad as a barn.

The Junior smile sported enough wattage to light up every ballpark from Seattle to Boston.

They used to say that, as good as he was, there was no telling how much better Mickey Mantle could have been had he been afforded the chance to play on two good legs instead of one. Same for Al Kaline, to a degree.

Mantle played baseball in terrific pain for most of his career, yet he sailed into the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility. The Tigers’ Kaline played many years on a deformed foot that, in Al’s own words, was like “having a toothache in my foot” every day.

Kaline, too, was elected into the Hall of Fame as soon as he was eligible.

So too will Junior, but that doesn’t begin to tell the story of a career that was part triumph, part tragedy.

It’s easy to be conflicted when discussing Ken Griffey Jr., because you can both be enamored with his remarkable talent and marvel at his numbers, or you might simply shake your head, wondering what might have been.

It wasn’t because of brevity that you’d shake your head; Junior played 22 years in the big leagues, after all. But several of those 22 years were lost to injury.

It reminds you of the players during wartime—the Hank Greenbergs of the world who lost time to serving their country and whose baseball numbers were sheared because of it.

Griffey Jr. lost time to conflict, too, but it was within his own body.

Usually the problems occurred below the belt.

His legs betrayed him most often, specifically his hamstrings. In a period from 2001-2006, Junior missed over 400 games due to various ailments. That’s about two-and-a-half seasons, and at the rate he was going at that time in his career, one number stands out above all others: 630.

That’s how many home runs Junior lofted over the seats, using that trademark, smooth-as-silk uppercut swing that was the Mona Lisa of its kind.

You give Junior back that time missed, and we’re not talking about Barry Bonds as the one surpassing Hank Aaron for first place on the all-time home run list.

Junior would have amassed about 3,300 base hits, slugged 750-plus home runs and driven in over 2,000 runs, had his legs not betrayed him.

“What’s the difference?” you might ask. “He’s going into the Hall of Fame anyway, isn’t he?”

True.

But Griffey Jr. wouldn’t have just been a Hall of Famer; he would have been the epitome of greatness.

For at least a decade, Junior was considered by many to be the best player in baseball and not just of his own time, if you know what I mean.

Then the injuries struck, and all those games he could have played in went down the drain, never to be recovered. The calendar stops for no man.

The folks in Seattle never really understood or got over the trade that shipped Griffey to the Cincinnati Reds following the 1999 season—a year in which Junior slugged 48 home runs, had 134 RBI and scored 123 runs.

It was like trading Willie Mays in his prime.

Griffey’s injury woes hit him in Cincinnati, almost as if some mad doctor in Seattle started poking a voodoo doll made in his likeness.

Griffey played for the Reds from 2000-2008 before being sent to the Chicago White Sox for their pennant push. The Mariners brought him back as a free agent in February 2009, some 20 years after his big league debut.

That’s where the Brothers Grimm took over the tale-writing duties.

Griffey hit .214 in 2009 and everyone was too polite to say it out loud, but again the comparison to Mays was apt, in that Junior was looking like the Say Hey Kid, circa 1973, when Mays stumbled around for the Mets as a 42-year-old.

But Griffey came back for more in 2010, against the judgment of people who thought they knew better. Perhaps they were right.

Junior was dreadful, his skills gone. When the story broke of the alleged sleeping incident, it was sad but in a way, it went along nicely with the whole, “He should have retired” talk.

So he did, finally.

The other day, Junior addressed the circumstances surrounding his abrupt retirement last June.

“I just felt that it was more important for me to retire and instead of being a distraction, it no longer became the Seattle Mariners, it became, ‘When is Ken doing this? When is Ken doing that?’ and that’s something I didn’t want to have my teammates, who I truly cared about, having to answer these types of questions day in and day out,” Griffey said.

Today, Griffey is still with the Mariners, as a special consultant. He plans to work with the kids and do some time in the broadcast booth.

And it’s left to us to wonder what might have been, had Junior’s legs not caused him so much grief.

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About a month ago, I wrote about some bold predictions for this upcoming Mariners season. In it, I said that Ichiro will win a batting title.

It really isn’t an insanely bold prediction since this is something entirely possible in any given season with Ichiro. That doesn’t make it something that is a lock, though, either.

I’ll expand on that prediction a bit, and give five reasons that show he can still do it.

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How do you fix a team that has lost 100 games twice in three seasons?

That’s the glaring question that general manager Jack Zduriencik and manager Eric Wedge are tasked with in 2011.

After a few nice trades and additions propelled the team a giant step forward in 2009, they took another giant step back in 2010. Though most assumed that ’09 team overachieved, the additions to the club last season led those same pundits to believe we’d at least see a similar outcome, perhaps even a better one.

With pitchers and catchers doing bullpen sessions and position players trickling in ahead of the mandatory report date this Friday, the team is getting a chance to have a hard, long look at their squad early.

It’s a good thing, too, because there are questions that must be answered post-haste.

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After an award-winning 2010 campaign, with trade rumors constantly swirling around him, Felix Hernandez is set to enter his 10th season of professional baseball in the Seattle Mariners organization. Hernandez has enjoyed several successes in his 10 years in professional baseball, but he has much higher sights for himself.

At the age of 16, Hernandez signed with the Mariners on July 4, 2002. According to Hernandez, the Mariners were not the highest bidders, but they were the team that made him the most comfortable.

“The money was good, and Seattle treated me the best,” he said through an interpreter at the time in an interview with The Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

The Mariners were among a handful of teams that recognized the unique talent that Felix Hernandez possessed, a talent that could develop into one of the best pitchers of all time.

“After watching him, I could understand why we gave him some money,” farm director Benny Looper said in an interview he gave in 2004. “He was a good-looking prospect even at that age.

“If he lives up to his potential, I’d put him in the same class with Junior (Ken Griffey) and Alex (Rodriguez).”

Hernandez has lived up to his potential, earning his first Cy Young award last season at the age of 24, and he is just now entering his “prime.” How do you provide an encore to a Cy Young season? If you are Hernandez, you raise the stakes and attempt to become the best pitcher in the Major Leagues.

Felix respects other great pitchers such as Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, David Price, Ubaldo Jimenez, etc., but he wants to stand at the front of that line.

Hernandez is one of those rare athletes that possess the desire to be the best at everything he does, a trait that has already taken him far in his professional career, but also one which gives him a very high ceiling in regards to his potential accomplishments.

Scott Budner, Hernandez’s pitching coach with the Missions in 2004, made this prophetic statement one year prior to Felix’s Major League debut with the Mariners:

“The thing that’s going to make him special is that he’s (fiery) on the mound,” Budner said. “He doesn’t like to lose. He’s a great competitor, and when things get tough, he gets tougher.

“That’s why Michael Jordan is so far above everybody else. Michael Jordan had incredible talent, but a lot of guys do. Jordan wanted to win more than anybody did, and that’s why he dominated. Felix has that nice combination that you look for of raw talent, and he…wants to beat you. That’s a beautiful thing.”

His then-teammate Rene Cortez also added, “He wants to win everything. Playing cards, PlayStation, whatever we do, he has to win. That’s what I like about Felix. Whatever he has to do to win, he’ll do it.”

Since making his debut in 2005, that is what Hernandez has done more often than not. He has won on a team that has only seen a winning record twice since Hernandez joined the rotation (2007 and 2009). Over that time, King Felix has compiled a 71-53 record with a 3.20 ERA.

In fact, Felix Hernandez has improved every season since making his debut. His 2006 ERA (his first full season with the Mariners) was 4.52. In 2007 he lowered his ERA to 3.92. In 2008 his ERA was 3.45. The 2009 season was spectacular with a 2.49 ERA, and in 2010 Hernandez won the Cy Young award on the strength of his league-best 2.27 ERA. This is not accidental. Hernandez strives for improvement with each new season.

“Do I think I can be better? Why not?” Hernandez says. “I’m trying to get better every year.”

This spring, Hernandez has not been content sitting back and enjoying the success he had personally in 2010. He has been limited to only 2.2 innings pitched, but has a 1-0 record and 3.38 ERA to show for it as he beat the division rival Oakland Athletics.

Hernandez has spent the rest of the spring throwing bullpen sessions and carving up hitters in live batting practice sessions designed to limit other teams ability to see Hernandez too many times before the regular season.

Hernandez’s intensity shows through even in these live batting practice sessions. If he is not happy with the break on his pitches, he lets you know. He seeks perfection with every outing, even meaningless spring sessions that are as much practice for the batters he is facing as they are for him.

With the level of success that Hernandez has accomplished at such a young age, there are the inevitable rumors that come from the “big-market” franchises such as New York and Boston. Seattle general manager Jack Zduriencik has reiterated he has no intention of trading Hernandez. It would be irresponsible, however, not to at least field calls from interested teams given the return that trading Hernandez would bring.

As important to Mariners fans as Hernandez’s success on the field though is his desire to stay in Seattle and turn the franchise into a winner. Felix negotiated a no-trade clause into his contract that includes both New York and Boston.

While Hernandez admits that pitching in the environment of the AL East holds a small appeal to him, he prefers to pitch in that environment as a visiting player with the Seattle Mariners.

“I’d love to be in that position playing against the Yankees or Boston,” he told Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. “The field is always packed. The adrenaline is up and up. It’s the best place to pitch.”

Asked if he would waive his no-trade clause to pitch elsewhere, Hernandez says:

“I’d say no. I hear it all the time, but I’d love to stay here. I like Seattle, like the organization, like all the people I’m around, and I live in Seattle. We’ve got a lot of talent here—young talent. We could be good. If [Erik] Bedard stays healthy, and [Jason] Vargas is pretty good, [Doug] Fister’s pretty good, [Michael] Piñeda is big and has great stuff. And I’m OK.”

“OK” is drastically downplaying Hernandez’s abilities, and he knows it. He will play a major role in the Mariners future success in 2011 and beyond. He does not simply want to rank above Mariners greats such as Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey, Jr as Benny Looper once predicted; he wants to stand as one of the greatest pitchers in Major League history.

With four years remaining on his current contract with the Mariners, Seattle fans will witness first-hand as Hernandez pitches his way towards the top of pitching ranks.

With respect to the other great pitchers in the game today, Hernandez simply says:

“This is my time.”

Felix Hernandez’s Career Statistics:

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