Kuzul

People didn’t expect Edgar Martinez to earn election into the Hall of Fame today. The fact that he didn’t wasn’t a shock to anyone.

Some eyebrows were raised when his support dropped by a few votes, though.

The arguments for or against his election can be made over and over. We’d be blue in the face and likely see no one from either side sway to the other. We know the numbers, and we know the DH argument.

There’s a bigger problem in the room now, though. One that is likely to plague the election process for the next decade or longer.

Writers are forced to play games.

The members of the BBWAA who have a Hall of Fame vote are limited to 10 selections on their ballot. To exasperate the issue, voters are being faced with more questions about steroids, and the Hall of Fame has given them a vague set of rules to consider when casting their vote.

Some writers who would rather be safe than sorry in the case of Jeff Bagwell. With a loaded ballot this year, perhaps they’d rather spend one of their 10 votes elsewhere while also avoiding the steroid controversy.

Another writer voted for Tino Martinez and BJ Surhoff, but not Roberto Alomar or Bert Blyleven. The latter two were elected today. Surely, that writer doesn’t think Martinez and Surhoff are more deserving than Alomar and Blyleven, right?

Would we be wrong to assume that writer felt confident Alomar and Blyleven would get in, thus deciding to spend those votes elsewhere?

I believe the Hall of Fame has put these writers in an unfair position.

What if these games end up costing a guy his enshrinement? Fans would be angry, but remember that these voters are people, too. They are the ones with the burden to make a decision under these rules.

While I disagree with the stance some of them have to err on the side of caution, it is their right under the current format of the ballot rules.

They then face the dilemma of publishing their votes with reasoning or withholding that information. Either decision would come with backlash from the fans.

This is not court of law. Nor is it a body of congress. Therefore, we can’t expect the voters to abide by rules we’ve come to know in our government. They don’t have to see it as innocent until proven guilty and they don’t have to represent our feelings with their vote.

I don’t feel bad for the pressure put on all of the writers, though.

Dan Graziano of AOL Fanhouse chose not to vote for Jeff Bagwell, because he has suspicions. I could get into why I feel voters should not be playing the role of morality police or directly or indirectly influencing people to form a negative opinion of someone who has not been found guilty of anything.

I’m more concerned, though, with how the Hall of Fame may have unintentionally instilled an inflated sense of power into some of these writers.

In his piece a week ago, Graziano had this to say about his right to vote how he sees fit:

“I could withhold a vote because I don’t want people in the Hall of Fame who have blue eyes, or owned cats, or ever played on a Texas team. It’s my vote, and the only standards to which I am beholden are my own.”

The Hall of Fame’s rules are short and vague. Short enough, in fact, that you can see they do not allow a voter to leave a player off because of his eye color or domestic animal of choice. They ask the voters to consider how well the player performed, and how they acted on and off the field while a member of the baseball community.

Would Graziano really vote that way? I’d certainly hope not, but the mere fact that he’d publish a thought like that is concerning. Do either the Hall of Fame or BBWAA care that one of the gatekeepers to this hallowed institution finds that as acceptable, joke or not?

I would think voting for the Hall of Fame is an extreme honor that is taken very seriously. I have no doubt it is to many voters.

Others, though, and the Hall of Fame itself?

Seems like they need to revisit the policies and practices on who is left out in the cold.

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The Seattle Mariners finalized a two-year contract, with a club option for a third, with catcher Miguel Olivo.

Finally.

Nearly a month after the deal was agreed on, pen went to paper and a press release was sent out. I can’t say I remember a deal ever taking this long to finalize.

To make room for Olivo on the 40-man roster, pitcher Anthony Varvaro was designated for assignment. As these things go, the Mariners now have 10 days to release, trade or outright Varvaro to the Minors.

Varvaro is 26. He throws hard, but doesn’t throw strikes exceptionally well. He’s not a huge loss, but for a team that is soft in both the majors and minors, he’s at least worth keeping around for organizational depth.

In other news, one of the names the Mariners had been tied to isn’t coming to town. Chris Capuano, who is coming off injury problems, signed a one-year deal with the Mets.

Having been with the Brewers there were ties to GM Jack Zduriencik, and Safeco Field would have played well to his skill set.

With David Aardsma now needing surgery, making him untradeadble for now, the Mariners’ limited budget room is now even lot tighter. The options to find a back-end starter are getting pretty slim.

I’d expect to see someone like a David Pauley to break camp with the team unless one of the last remaining options, Jeff Francis, is brought in.

You can follow Alex on Twitter @AlexCarson or email him comments, questions or concerns at alexcarson.br@gmail.com

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The AL West was one of the worst divisions in baseball in 2010.

Entering the season, projections were all over. Each team was picked to both win the division or finish in the cellar, depending on which prediction you read.

The shape of each club is a bit easier to tell going into 2011, but there are still several questions for each club and the players signed to them.

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Life is pretty funny sometimes. I was sitting in my office late in the afternoon thinking about what I was going to write about tonight.

I kid you not, I was really going to write a “David Aardsma: What’s His Trade Market?” post. It seemed pretty logical considering that the Seattle Mariners aren’t going anywhere in 2011 and Aardsma, coming off a year where he had 31 saves and a respectable 3.44 ERA, has some trade value.

That idea went up in smoke in about 10 minutes because it was reported earlier today that Aardsma will undergo left hip surgery to repair a torn labrum.

This news really came out of nowhere and really put an end to any trade rumor or value Aardsma had this offseason.

According to the Seattle Times, Aardsma been bothered by pain in his left hip area since the end of the season. Aardsma and the Mariners originally thought it was an oblique injury, but when the injury didn’t go away this offseason, Aardsma knew something was wrong.

That’s when he went to went to see Dr. Mark Phillipon and Dr. Phillipon recommended the surgery. Aardsma will go under the knife on Monday.

Happy New Year Mr. Aardsma!

Aardsma will be sidelined four-to-eight weeks. If that estimate is correct, then he should be ready for Opening Day.

Whether Aardsma is ready or not for Opening Day is not the issue here; the issue for the Mariners is that they can’t trade a guy who’s value now has appeared to peak in the last two seasons.

Now if the Mariners want to trade Aardsma during the season, they are going to have to let him re-establish his value. Considering that he saw his K/9 drop from 10.1 in 2009 to 8.9 in 2010 and his ERA rise from 2.52 to 3.44, that might be a tall task.

If Aardsma isn’t ready for Opening Day, look for Brandon League to get the first crack at closing games for the Mariners in 2011.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Let me start by saying that, while it’s non-zero, the chances of Felix Hernandez being traded this winter are pretty small.

Felix has stated many times that he loves Seattle. He has a no-trade clause that we know includes the Yankees. We don’t know the other teams, but the team that may be the most willing to give up a huge package is probably out of the running.

Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik has also stated that he has no interest in trading the King. While that may be because he can’t due to the contract and ownership’s wishes, he still said it. This is a front office that traded for Cliff Lee without a soul knowing about it until it was done. They’re tight-lipped, and when they do say something, you can generally take it to the bank.

We also have seen one offer that the Mariners turned down. A couple summers ago, they didn’t feel Adrian Gonzalez, Clay Buchholz and their choice of a few more Red Sox prospects were enough. That would have been a pretty impressive haul, so to turn that down lets you know something.

This is baseball, though. It’s a weird game, and you never know what sort of surprise you’ll see. So here are 10 trade packages that could pique their interest.

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It’s possible that the expectations for Erik Bedard, especially considering what Bill Bavasi sent to Baltimore to get him, added to the perception that he’s a jerk. He’s not a great interview. He gives that little smile when asked a question he doesn’t like. There is a belief that he doesn’t care.

Of course, his inability to stay on the field has added to that. When he does pitch, you see so much potential. There’s a solid pitcher in there and it drives us nuts when starts are pushed back, an entire season is lost and he goes under the knife. Again.

However, it’s entirely possible that Erik Bedard actually has something other than ice water running through his veins.

Signed for 2011 to a non-guaranteed contract for one-year and $1 million, something not too common for a major league veteran, it appears Bedard really meant it when he said he owed something to Seattle. He has, after all, received a nice chunk of change from the Mariners and spent the better part of two years getting rehab on their dime.

While he could have easily gone to another team for a similar deal, perhaps even better, he stayed here and has a contract that might earn him nothing, but also has tons of incentives.

Reports are that Bedard could see as much as $5.6 million from the contract. The bonuses start at 50 innings and eight starts, and go all the way up to 190 innings and 30 starts. Chuck in nearly another half million if he’s an All-Star or wins a Cy Young or Gold Glove. Heck, there’s even a structure in case the team decides he’d be a better fit for the pen. It seems as though Bedard is open to anything, including being compensated fairly if he performs well.

So, what are the two ideal scenarios that could come from this? Let’s examine.

Ideal Scenario Number One—Mariners Contend in the AL West

This is unlikely. Really unlikely. Baseball is a strange game, though. Never have we seen so many players have the worst year of their career and perform as badly as we did with the 2010 squad. So, while not probable, it’s possible as many players have career years in 2011, right?

What if Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda burst onto the scene? What if Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez and Brendan Ryan have significant bounce-back seasons? What if Ichiro defies age again, Miguel Olivo earns that contract and Michael Saunders makes huge strides?

Oh, and what if Erik Bedard stays healthy, pitches 30 games and gives Seattle a strong first three with Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda?

Yeah, and what if the sky turns purple and cows walk up-right? I know, not likely. But unlike the sky and cows transforming over night, there is a non-zero chance of this Mariners squad shocking the AL West. One percent is still better than zero, after all.

According to fangraphs.com‘s WAR, Bedard was worth 5.0 and 5.4 wins above a typical AAA replacement player in 2006 and 2007 respectively. The going rate for a win this off-season is $5 million. If Bedard could even hit, say, 3.5 WAR to account for age and regression that would make him “worth” $17.5 million if he got the going rate.

At that point, $5.6 million if he hit every single bonus would be a huge bargain. The risk is small, and the potential reward is huge.

Ideal Scenario Number Two—Bedard builds trade value

While perhaps the odds of this are as good as Milton Bradley and Eric Wedge being caught skipping down Edgar Martinez Drive together, it’s still possible.

We can also look back to recent history to see what happened with Jarrod Washburn. All it takes is one good half of baseball, and an albatross all of a sudden becomes useful warm bodies. Neither Luke French or Mauricio Robles were blue chip prospects, but both filled holes in a soft upper minors system for the Mariners and add legit options to a major league club.

There is almost no chance Bedard is a Mariner on August 1st if he’s healthy. Contending teams are always looking to add to their rotation, and in Bedard’s case, he’d make a cheap addition to a team that could use a starter, spot starter or legit long man for the dog days of summer.

Other Scenarios

• Cut with no loss.
• Becomes a mop up guy in the pen.
• Spot starts to reduce the innings for Pineda.

Whatever the end result is, the risk is small. Let’s try this one more time, Erik.

Alex Carson is a Seattle Mariners writer and blogger. You can follow him on Twitter @AlexCarson or email him comments, questions or concerns at alexcarson.br@gmail.com

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When the Mariners traded Cliff Lee to Texas last July, the focus was on having Justin Smoak as part of that package.

Unfortunately, much of the talk from that trade has not been the potential of Smoak, but the issues that come with one of he other pieces of that deal.

Josh Lueke.

In 2008, Lueke faced a rape charge that was later reduced to false imprisonment with violence, which to he plead no contest. Neither crime should be taken lightly, obviously. The original charge is the one that the court of public opinion will always charge him with and he’ll face lots of negative press and fan reaction for that.

The Mariners and Rangers had a public spat about how this information was disclosed and what happened after the Mariners fully knew what was going on. Carmen Fusco, pro scouting director, was fired. Jack Zduriencik uncomfortable read from a script as explained the situation to the media. The “Refuse to Abuse” program grew a collective look of befuddlement.

Here’s the real problem in all of this:

Josh Lueke has major league talent.

If this were some minor league fodder, we can probably safely assume the Mariners would have just sent him back or cut him loose. But, because he has a big arm and projects as a late inning strikeout machine, here we are facing an uncomfortable situation.

The Mariners had been quiet on the situation since. When talking about prospects, Lueke was left out. When talking about Arizona Fall League success stories, Lueke was left out.

Then came a piece on the Mariners official website where Jack Zduriencik was quoted as saying “We view Smoak as a middle-of-the-lineup bat and Lueke as a late-inning guy. Both should be with us in 2011.””

Josh Lueke was not left out. Zduriencik has become known as someone who chooses his words wisely. I’ve gone to events to see him speak candidly a couple times. When he’s asked a question, it’s as if you can see the wheels turning before he answers. He’s an intelligent man who knows about perception and how things can take off if that perception isn’t reality.

So, to have Zduriencik change course probably means the Mariners are having serious thoughts about putting Lueke on the active roster at some point in 2011. That might not be opening day and it probably won’t be the home opener either. My guess would be he gets added during a road trip in the first couple months of the season.

Of course, this also could be very careful plotting by Zduriencik. The Seattle community wasn’t willing to hear about the greatness of this guy with such a bad label, especially during a tumultuous season. However, essentially removing Lueke from existence almost certainly diminished any remaining trade value he had. So, did Jack possibly wait for the dust to settle to start slowly reintroducing the thought of Lueke playing in Seattle, while also trying to raise his trade value?

This is a subject that pulls hard at a lot of baseball fans. How do you root for a convicted criminal? Does the fact that the charges were lessened change your mind at all? Do you believe in giving people second chances? Where do you draw the line in wanting your team to have the best chance to win or having the most trade leverage? Why should this man be permitted to be a role model for children?

There are a lot of questions here that I cannot answer. We all have extremely strong opinions on this, especially those of us who have been touched personally by the crime he was originally charged with.

Whether we agree with Lueke’s inclusion on the team or not, there are 59 days until pitchers and catchers report, and the looming issue has started to be addressed.

Discussion on this subject is welcome in the comments section below. Please, though, keep them civil. I’d like to point out that I’ve tried to not show an opinion in this piece, but only lay out the facts.

Alex Carson is a Seattle Mariners writer and blogger. You can follow him on Twitter @AlexCarson or email him comments, questions or concerns at alexcarson.br@gmail.com

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Late Monday night, word came out that not only was there a mystery team in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, but that they had won his services.

The Phillies got back the piece they sorely missed last post-season, and in the process put another 500 pounds of pain on the Yankees off-season.

While they re-signed Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera as expected, the Yankees real top target all along was Cliff Lee. Now that they’ve missed out on him, and rival Boston added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, the Bronx Bombers may be scrambling to get their rotation improved.

You’ve heard Zack Greinke’s name tossed out there, but its believed that he wouldn’t accept a trade to New York, or that new York doesn’t think Greinke can handle the pressure. Both theories produce the same result.

So, aside from Brian Cashman’s public statements of patience, what could be the next plan for the Yankees? Well, one name that surely will be kicked around is 2010 Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners.

However, here are 10 reasons they won’t be able to make that deal happen.

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Last years regular season began with high hopes and great expectations for the Seattle Mariners.  They had had a very busy offseason as they acquired such players as Cliff Lee, Milton Bradley, and Casey Kotchman.

Unfortunately, the team fell way short of expectations and ended up with the worst record in the American League.  They were dead last in hitting in the major leagues and hit the fewest home runs in all of baseball as well.

The season was chaotic and treacherous as their new players were busts (except for Lee) and the clubhouse morale was bad.  Don Wakamatsu got the guillotine and the Mariners finished at a god awful 61-101 mark.

Once again, the AL West looks weak and if Seattle makes the right moves they can maybe compete once again.  The right moves you may ask?  Are the ones I am about to suggest.

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The Mariners were bad behind the plate in 2010. In fact, they were sub-par in every position except right field. Miguel Olivo was recently signed to a two-year deal by the team to be their everyday catcher. The deal is worth $7,000,000—a reasonable figure considering his ability to call a game. Offensively, however, he is barely an upgrade over the trio of backstops who butchered the position for most of Seattle’s 2010 season.

Most of the playing time went to 26-year-old Adam Moore. He hit .195 in 218 plate appearances. He walked only eight times and was on pace for about 180 strikeouts. His defense was worth one run below replacement level.

Rob Johnson spent a lot of time behind the dish for the Mariners as well. Johnson hit .191 but is a better offensive player than Moore. Both were hit by bad luck on their batting averages on balls in play, but Johnson was hit slightly harder. While Adam Moore might be a 12-15 home run guy if he can learn discipline, Rob Johnson was on pace for only about six home runs. Park effect notwithstanding, those are paltry power numbers.

Rob Johnson’s 12 percent walk rate was better than the team’s 2010 average of 8.5 percent. He strikes out a lot too, but not as much as Adam Moore.

Josh Bard also caught 39 games for the team. Bard is somewhere between Adam Moore and Rob Johnson in terms of talent. His career .256 average is underwhelming but he has shown good plate discipline in his best years, though he now appears to be in decline. After posting a .214/.276/.357 line, he will be lucky to sign a major-league deal for 2011.

Miguel Olivo is like a band-aid that only covers half of the wound. He won’t hit for average as his career .246 mark attests. He cannot take a walk and will strike out a lot. His career walk rate is 4.1 percent. Compare that to the league average which tends to be somewhere between eight and nine percent. While the average hitter strikes about 20 percent of the time, Olivo’s K-rate tends to be closer to 30 percent.

His reputation as a power hitter will depend on whether he can stay in the lineup long enough to hit 15 home runs. 15 is probably his ceiling, given the pitcher-friendly nature of Safeco Field. Good defense will help him stay in the lineup.

Defensively, Olivo will be a huge upgrade for the Mariners. In fact, that defense makes his contract worth it to me. If you just consider the offense you have to question whether Olivo deserves a major-league job, but believe it or not, this was a smart deal for the Mariners to make. The pool of available catchers, which lost Victor Martinez early in the offseason, is strikingly poor. The remaining options are Bengie Molina, Gregg Zaun, Gerald Laird, Matt Treanor, Henry Blanco and Chad Moeller.

The best option for anyone in need of a catcher is probably Bengie Molina, traded from the Giants to the Rangers months before the two teams met in the World Series. Molina is just two years removed from a 20 home run season, but has seen his batting average drop in each of the past two seasons. He has always struggled to get on base, and has lost much of his power.

Gregg Zaun has struggled to stay healthy and he approaches his fortieth birthday next April. While he has been slightly above average in the OBP department, he does little else and cannot be counted on.

Gerald Laird hit .218 over the last two seasons with nine home runs in a little more than one seasons’ worth of at bats. Finally, Matt Treanor, Henry Blanco, and Chad Moeller spent 2010 affirming why they are career backups. They can’t hit, but catching is not an easy job, so they remain employed.

Defense distinguishes Miguel Olivo. His offense is probably going to be a detriment to the team unless he finds the power he showed in 2009. But, it makes sense for the Mariners, who have money, to pay $3.5 million a year for his services over the next couple of years. The alternatives are even worse.

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