Kuzul

On December 8th the Seattle Mariners signed free-agent catcher Miguel Olivo to a two-year contract worth $7 million with a club option for a third year.  Just a few days prior to the agreement with Olivo, Seattle signed free-agent DH Jack Cust to a one-year $2.5 million deal.  Personally I am in favor of neither deal. 

Jack Cust is a prototypical DH.  He is a hack anywhere in the field and the only value he can generate is with his left-handed bat.  The defensive metric UZR, which measures defense in the extra runs saved (or cost) by having the player in the field rates Cust poorly.  Cust cost’s his team over 20 runs a season when in the outfield. 

At the plate Cust is a “three true outcomes” hitter.  The three true outcomes are walks, strikeouts and home runs.  The last two years Russell Branyan has been the team’s resident “three true outcomes” player.  In 112 games in 2010 for the Oakland Athletics, Jack Cust hit 13 home runs, walked 68 times and struck out a 127 times. 

On the outside of the deal, Cust looks like a solid addition; he walks a lot, he batted .272 last year and he is only a few years removed from a season in which he hit 33 home runs.  Additionally, he was worth a decent 2.4 WAR, which measures the wins a player provides over a replacement-level player.  Despite these factors, Cust has all the signs of being terrible next year.  Even though he is only 31 years old, Cust may be on the rapid decline in much the same way Richie Sexson was his last two years here.

The last four years Cust has seen his HR/FB drop, the statistic (in form of a percent) is used to measure how many of the hitter’s fly balls resulted in home runs.  In 2007, 31.7 percent of Jack Cust’s fly balls left the yard, however last season only 14.9 percent did.  This is quite alarming for a guy who gets most of his value from smashing long balls.  In Sexson’s time with the Mariners he faced a similar fate, going from 24.5 percent HR/FB down to a lowly 17.4 percent. 

One other alarming thing about Cust: He hits most of his home runs to left field, which is especially bad when it comes to hitting in Safeco.  In 2010, Cust hit seven of his 13 home runs to left, one to center and five to right field.  His slugging percentage backed this up because he slugged .679 when he pulled the ball (to right field) and he slugged .787 when he hit the ball to left field.  You can look at his home run chart for 2010 here. 

The other free agent Seattle added also seems to be a bad move, although this time it is a player who has spent time in a Mariners uniform before.  Miguel Olivo, a catcher, came to Seattle in 2004 with two other players as part of the trade that sent Freddy Garcia to the Chicago White Sox.  Olivo was jettisoned by Seattle during the 2005 season and has played in Florida, Kansas City and Colorado since then. 

He is exactly the type of hitter who fails in Seattle, a right-handed hitter who doesn’t walk or hit for average, and can only pull the ball to left field.  Safeco is particularly hard on right-handed hitters, and Olivo’s only offensive upside is from pulling a few home runs every now and then.  Olivo hit 14 home runs in 2010, and topped out at 23 in 2009.  Olivo is a career .246 hitter as well, which is not very good.  There is reason to believe he will be worse in 2011 too. 

In 2010 he played in the very hitter-friendly Coors field and hit .318 with 10 of his 14 home runs.  Away from the high altitude he only managed to hit .211 with four home runs in almost as many games.  So, Olivo could really fall off the map as a hitter for the Mariners.  Especially since he hit every home run last year to left field or center.

Another problem with the Olivo deal is that it is for two years even though the Mariners have a young catcher in Adam Moore who does have some potential left despite a bad first year in the majors.  The Mariners are obviously saying that they have no faith in Moore by giving Olivo two years, which is sad because Moore never really got a chance to prove himself.  He was once considered a pretty good prospect with the chance to be a catcher who hit above average for the position at the MLB level.

The only attribute Olivo has that is a plus would be his arm.  Last year he threw out 42 percent of people attempting to steal bases, which is very good.  Olivo will certainly be a better defender than any of the Mariners catchers last season.

To me, both of these deals look bad.  Cust despite being a useful DH over the last few seasons may be on the decline and has a very real possibility to struggle hitting next year because his tendency to hit the ball to left field, and the fact that over the years his home runs have been coming less and less frequently due to a drop in his FB/HR rate.  In fact, Cust is a worse player than former Mariner Russell Branyan, because he should hit fewer home runs, and strike out more. 

Olivo, on the other hand, is a bad move because he is taking the spot of a promising young player, and the fact that he is likely to completely fall off the map with the bat while hitting at Safeco.  Both of these contracts also seem like the type of players that get signed right before spring training traditionally because of their obvious flaws.  However, Jack Zduriencik chose to sign these guys early in the game when better options were still on the market, making me wonder if the Mariners have less money to spend than the reported $16-plus million.  Whatever the reason, it would be wise not to draft either of these guys for your fantasy baseball team.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

A year ago, as the story goes, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik had a chat with his counterpart from the Phillies in the airport on his way home from these winter meetings. The result was Cliff Lee coming to Seattle via trade.

It doesn’t appear any splash of that magnitude is in the cards this go around, as the meetings wrap up and the Mariners—while linked to many rumors—leave as minor players. For the second consecutive year the club has been a bargain bin shopper, looking for low risk-high upside players, as they have another year before significant payroll relief.

Here’s a look at the moves they were, or are rumored to be, involved in.

C Miguel Olivo signed a two-year $7 million contract

This was simply not a great move. Generally, I trust Jack Zduriencik and his scouting team. I’m having a rough time with this one, though. Olivo played for the Mariners once, you may recall. He came over from Chicago in the Freddy Garcia trade. Safeco is not nice to right-handed pull hitters, and Olivo was no exception.

His numbers have improved a bit, but if you look at the splits, there’s no question Coors Field was a contributor. At home in Colorado, he hit a respectable 318/.349/.556 but on the road a laughable .211/.276/.322.

Read those road numbers again and try not to cringe. That the Mariners added a second year makes this possibly the worst move of the Zduriencik era (TBD: depends on how Morrow turns out in Toronto). Though, it was an area of need, and what we may not know is that the front office has all but given up on Adam Moore and none of the other free agents bit.

Here is one positive way to look at this: Seemingly every year some playoff contending team needs a fill in for their injured catcher. I don’t think Jack is an idiot. I could easily see Olivo spun into some interesting prospect(s) at the trade deadline. Nothing premium, but this organization needs all the talent it can find.

DH Jack Cust signed a one-year $2.5 million contract

Okay, I know your initial thought. But we have to remember that the Mariners are bargain shopping again this year waiting for salary relief in 2011. While the Olivo deal doesn’t fit well into that plan, this one does. Cust is a left-hander with some pop, and could see a boost from Safeco Field.

Though, he does have much of his power to left-center, which is why right-handers generally do poor here. So, I expect this to be a push as far as home park help/hurt, but the price doesn’t kill the budget.

I initially thought this would lead to a Milton Bradley DFA, but it appears the club is ready to keep him on board and split time at DH and left field between the two veterans and Michael Saunders.

RP Jose Flores acquired form Cleveland Indians in Rule 5 Draft

There isn’t much to say here. This is likely one of those guys that will be returned at the end of spring training. Flores is a guy who sits in the low to mid 90s with good command, with no secondary pitches behind his fastball and has only played as high as A ball. You never know, I guess. But, I’m again left scratching my head at the decisions made by a scouting organization I highly respect.

Rumor: M’s interested in Cleveland INF Luis Valbuena

Yes, that Luis Valbuena. As you likely recall, the Mariners sent Valbuena to the Tribe as part of the three team trade that netted them Franklin Gutierrez and sent JJ Putz to the Mets. It was a home run of a trade, and with Valbuena struggling last year it is possible they could get him back for something small in return.

No real details of a possible proposal have come out, and it may be that he was just a target of the front office. That would be strange if the case, since generally the Mariners are a very tight lipped front office and leaks often come from companion teams in trade talks. So, it may have at least been floated to the Indians.

Valbuena is still young, and has shown he has nothing to prove at AAA. It’s possible he ends up as one of those AAAA type guys who never transitions to the majors well, but the Mariners are a team that can fit him into their current roster. He can man second base until Ackley is ready, then slide to shortstop when Jack Wilson has his annual injury.

International: SS Esteilon Peguero signs for $2.9 million

This was the fourth largest bonus ever given by the Mariners. Only Ackley, Ichiro and Jeff Clement have received higher bonuses. It was also the largest bonus given to any international signing this season, and one of the biggest ever.

I talked a little bit about the international signing process and what a gamble it is in this piece.

Cliff notes: You just don’t know. Some scouts project Peguero as a guy who will have to slide to second or third base. Jack Zduriencik says they still project him a a shortstop for now. But everyone seems to agree that he’ll hit. While probably not a big bopper, he could fill out his frame and be a nice gap doubles hitter. Remember, he’s 17.

What’s Next?

– The Mariners still need to figure out what they’re doing with Chone Figgins. They could use Josh Wilson at second base if they really want to move Figgins back to third (or if he demands). With Jose Lopez being traded to Colorado, it makes the most sense to move Figgins back there regardless. It’s not entirely impossible that Figgins is traded, but his contract puts the plausibility in question.

– Don’t write off the possibility of a secret squirrel Zduriencik trade in the next few days. This team still needs to be set up for 2012. They’ll have more money next year, and if a Justin Upton type scenario pops up, and the price is right, it could happen.

– What to do with Cust/Bradley/Saunders. If Saunders isn’t in a trade package, I don’t know what happens here. Bradley will surely be on the DL at least once this season and his contract is the reason he’s here in the first place. I suppose it’s better than Griffey/Sweeney/Bradley, but the problem is still there.

There’s still a lot of work to make this roster into one that doesn’t lose 100 games. They should get some help from bounce back seasons from some of the guys. There’s just no way that many players have the worst year of their career again.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Thursday night’s non-tender deadline forced the Mariners to make some moves, which included all three of a trade, a signing and a non-tender.

LHP Erik Bedard was signed to a one-year, $1 million non-guaranteed contract. Should the Mariners decide Bedard is not healthy or able to contribute they can cut him in spring training for a fraction of the contract.

INF Jose Lopez was traded to the Colorado Rockies for RHP Chaz Roe. Roe is a 6’5″ former first round draft pick. His 2010 was spent at Colorado Springs, a launching pad. Though that may have inflated his ERA, his other numbers and peripherals don’t show much promise. Though, at only age 24, he could still put things together.

LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith was non-tendred. Rowland-Smith wouldn’t get into details, but it sounds as if he was not pleased with the offer from the Mariners.

It is believed he was offered a major league contract, so perhaps he wasn’t happy with the role he’d play on the team. A true fan favorite, and wonderful person, I wish RR-S the best.

The marketing commercials will be missed, mate.

OTHER NOTES

Per Ken Rosenthal of FOX, the Mariners have shown interest in catcher Russell Martin, who was non-tendered last night by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The MLB Winter Meetings kick-off next week. The Mariners will be looking to add offense, obviously. Also look for them to seek a veteran catcher and starting pitching depth.

The public memorial for Mariners’ late broadcaster Dave Niehaus will be next Sunday, Dec. 11 at 1:10 pm. Safeco Field doors open at noon. Expected to speak are Dan Wilson, Jay Buhner, Chuck Armstrong, Rick Rizzs, Ron Fairly and Dave’s children Andy and Greta Niehaus-Dunn.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

As we anxiously await the beginning of the Winter Meeting and the possibility of our favorite Major League Baseball teams adding that one significant piece to take them to the next level, let’s stoke the fantasy hot stove with some prospect talk. This series on prospects will cover a wide range of players as well as positions. We’ll cover sleepers as well as some of the more obvious stars of the future.

The first prospect in the series is not much of a sleeper. Dustin Ackley was taken second in the 2009 MLB Draft, right after the much ballyhooed Stephen Strasburg. Seattle drafted the University of North Carolina outfielder/first baseman with the intention of moving him to second base. The transition seems to be going well, with health being the only real concern for Ackley.

Ackley was moved from outfield to first base at UNC because of an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery in the summer before his junior year of college. Since Ackley is so athletic, the transition to second base hasn’t seemed to be a problem and the throw won’t put a lot of strain on the surgically repaired elbow. As a former centerfielder, Ackley seems to have the range and quickness needed to handle the defensive side of the job.

For position players, the most important tool is the bat and there are no questions that Ackley can hit. When drafted, then Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu referred to Ackley by saying, “his bat is special.” Ackley batted over .400 in each of his three college seasons, being named All-America in each season. He began his professional career by playing 20 games in the 2009 Arizona Fall League and batting .315. In 2010, he posted a .267/7 HR/51 RBI/10 SB line in 134 games in Double and Triple-A.

Ackley scorched the Arizona Fall League, posting a .424/4 HR/19 RBI/5 SB/28 R line for the season. He lead the AFL in AVG, OBP (.581), SLG (.758), OPS (1.338), and runs scored, while finishing one behind the league leader in doubles and homers, despite missing a week with a sprained finger. There is little left to prove for Ackley and a position in Seattle’s starting lineup seems inevitable.

Ackley looks like a high batting average, high on base percentage type of player. He has a little pop in his bat, but the deep power alleys at Safeco Field seem a good fit for his doubles power. He also has decent wheels, so look for stolen bases as well. He looks to be a Dustin Pedroia-type player with a few more doubles and a few less homers.

As it stands right now, the Seattle Mariners appear to be opening up third base without the intention of filling the position externally. That leaves us to assume that Chone Figgins will be moved back to third base (he wasn’t a good fit at second base with a -12.3 UZR in 2010) and open up the keystone for Ackley.

The only questions left to answer are up to the big league club. Will they trade away Jose Lopez and move Figgins to third base? Will they allow Ackley to start the season with Seattle and start his Major League service time now or wait until June and hope to get an extra year out of him?

With a fairly weak crop of second basemen across the Majors, it seems like Ackley will be an above average or better fantasy player. He will produce in all fantasy areas and be an asset to your club. Don’t expect a huge season in 2011, but a .300/6 HR/70 RBI/15 SB/80 R line seems very realistic. In a few years, you can expect to see him putting up .325/15 HR/90 RBI/20 SB/100 R seasons with regular occurrence.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Here’s a fact: The 2010 Mariners were pretty miserable. Aside from the expected contributions from Ichiro, Felix and Gutierrez, the rest was hard to watch. I’m an expert on the subject of how sore this made your eyes, having only missed 10 games this past season (and I thank my lovely girlfriend for those 10 blissful days).

So, what might 2011 bring? Could it get better before it gets worse? Could an improving AL West further bury the Mariners?

Well, by golly, pull up a seat and have a listen.

Begin Slideshow

Originally, the Mariners were in the clear. Then, they weren’t.

A few days later, Justin Upton’s agents decided to set the record straight and let everyone know that their client’s contract does not bar a trade to Seattle.

Now the question yielded is should the Mariners make a run at him?

Those who lack the short memory of a good closer surely recall the Bill Bavasi era. Trade useful pieces of the future in exchange for trying to win now—the most referenced, of course, being the Erik Bedard fiasco. Send the farm and all our spare baseballs for an oft-injured pitcher.

It’s true that Bedard came with huge risk considering his injuries and time remaining on his contract. What we learned later was that the risk came without much potential for reward. Even if he had pitched 35 games in 2008 and 2009 at top level, his contributions would not have helped a flawed roster. Then, he probably takes off for a big payday.

Our consolation, even under that best case scenario? Draft pick compensation that now has to be developed to replace the near-major league ready talent we shipped out in the first place.

So should the Mariners dare history to repeat itself?

What would the price be to acquire Upton? The Diamondbacks don’t need to trade him, and they very well may not. They are willing to listen, though. Being in that position, you can almost certainly expect the price tag for the Mariners to start with Michael Pineda and one of Justin Smoak or Dustin Ackley.

Pineda is the top-ranked pitching prospect in the organization. Smoak was the prize piece in the Cliff Lee trade. Ackley was the No. 2 overall pick who rocketed through the minors.

Is that price too steep? Which of the position players would you be more willing to give up? Who replaces any of the three when you realize the system has nothing close in the organization at their respective positions? What do we do with Michael Saunders now?

These are all good questions, which may lead many fans to just say “no thanks” and prefer that the team continue to build on the current young foundation. Of course, we all still remember the dizziness after swallowing the Bedard pill.

This pill is quite different, though. Justin Upton is a 23-year-old budding star locked up for several more years at what could be a huge bargain. The risks with a position player are historically far less than those of a pitcher, so Pineda for Upton is a good swap. But you still have to add Smoak or Ackley.

Can the team survive the loss of two of those three? When payroll wiggle room arrives in 2012, your core of Felix Hernandez, Ichiro, Upton, Franklin Gutierrez and Smoak or Ackley gives you a solid foundation to start dipping into free agency. This could be a move to gain long-term value from a player who has already shown he can play at the highest level—and he might get even better.

This won’t end with the pleasant surprise that acquiring Gutierrez in the J.J. Putz deal did, as Upton is already on the map. However, I think we can all rest assured that Jack Zduriencik’s scouting skills will help him make the right decision.

The notoriously close-lipped front office won’t be giving us any hints, but with the winter meetings kicking up next week, keep your eyes and ears peeled. Jack will be going to work.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

After decades as the majority among the Baseball Writers Association of America, the traditionalist voters were finally overtaken by something that has eluded the Cy Young voting since its inception: Baseball logic. 

In a year that was widely renowned as the “Year of the Pitcher, Part II,” Felix Hernandez stood head and shoulders above his American League counterparts.

In years past, the BBWAA voters have been duped by a statistical category that is becoming less meaningful each year: The win-loss record. 

In 2001, Roger Clemens won the AL Cy Young with a 20-3 record—and a 3.51 earned run average. In that same season, another young Mariners pitcher, Freddy Garcia, finished the year with an 18-6 record and a 3.05 ERA—nearly half a run lower than Clemens.

Garcia also tossed 18 innings more than Clemens, giving up six less hits. And these are even in the categories deemed “traditional” by baseball writers and fans alike.

But none of this mattered to the voters; Clemens’ flashy record was enough to earn him 21 first-place votes and his sixth Cy Young. 

This wasn’t the only similar situation in recent years: In 2005, Bartolo Colon won in a year when Johan Santana was clearly the better pitcher. 

But all of that changed with Hernandez’s victory over the competition, namely CC Sabathia, the best pitcher on the league’s most popular team, the New York Yankees.

Hernandez won the award with the fourth-least wins in history (13), ahead of only Willie Hernandez in 1984 (9), Dennis Eckersley in 1992 (7),  and Rollie Fingers in 1981 (6).

But there is one major difference: All three of the other pitchers were closers. 

Beyond wins and losses, King Felix’s statistics were unmatched.

Hernandez was tops in the American League in ERA (2.27), innings pitched (249.2), and quality starts (30).

He was second in strikeouts with 232, just one behind Angel’s starter Jered Weaver, and in WHIP (1.06), behind only Cliff Lee.

Felix also led the league in Wins Above Replacement (6.0). That is, Hernandez earned his team six more wins than they would have had with a replacement pitcher. 

Imagine if Felix played for the Yankees.

First, there would not have even been an argument; Hernandez would have won the award with these statistics simply because he played in the Bronx.

However, if Hernandez had received the average run support of CC Sabathia (a healthy 7.31 runs per game), his win-loss record would have skyrocketed.

Simply put, it is unfair to penalize a pitcher for playing for a terrible team. 

Maybe it’s not the fault of the voters.

After all, the award’s name, Cy Young, has caused confusion similar to that of college football’s Heisman Award; should it be given to the league’s best pitcher, or the league’s most valuable pitcher?

Not even the voter’s know exactly which way to vote.

In college football, the Heisman certainly would not be given to a great player on a mediocre team. But if such a player is the best in the nation (or in this case, the American League), shouldn’t he be given the award? In the past, this has not been the case.

Sure, there have been exceptions, like in 2009 when Zack Greinke won the Cy for the 97-loss Kansas City Royals. But that year, Greinke’s stats were overwhelmingly better than those of any other pitcher.

In fact, it can be argued that the 2009 version of Greinke was much better than the 2010 version of Hernandez.

To give the award to another pitcher on a playoff team would have been tragic.

What if these performances had happened in the same year? Baseball traditionalists would have had a collective heart attack. 

Even so, can’t it be argued that Felix Hernandez was not only the league’s best pitcher, but the league’s most valuable pitcher as well?

Going back to Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Hernandez’s 6.0 was more than half a win better than any other pitcher in the American League. This alone makes an argument for him as the league’s most valuable pitcher.

On a team that gave him the least run support among American League starters, Felix was able to win the Mariners six more games than they would have one with somebody else starting.

To put it in perspective, that is nearly 10 percent of Seattle’s wins this season (61).

No other pitcher came close to a WAR equivalent to 10 percent of his team’s victories. 

And this time, the voters realized all of this.

The Mariners’ right-hander received 21 of the 28 first-place votes.

It is naive to think that all (or even the majority) of voters chose Hernandez because of his league-best Wins Above Replacement.

This statistic, and other sabermetrics categories of its kind, surely have not been universally accepted by the baseball minds, and probably will not ever been seen as important as the traditional statistical categories.

However, the BBWAA voters should be applauded for realizing the importance of the other “traditional” statistical categories beyond wins and losses.

Or, perhaps, they simply started doing their job.

Finally.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This year’s Cy Young award winner is a pitcher with a:

2.27 ERA (best in baseball) 

249.2 innings (best in the American league)

6 complete games (second in the American League)

232 strikeouts (second in the American League by 1)

1.06 WHIP (second in the American League)

34 games started (best in the American League)

This pitcher’s name is Felix Hernandez of the last place Seattle Mariners and is the 2010 Cy Young award winner with 13-12 record, lowest among Cy Young winners.

Is this a trend?

A lot of people in the media will tell you that.

“Starting in 2011, people will be able to cite historical evidence as to why wins should not be considered in the Cy Young discussion. ‘Hernandez won it in 2010,’ they will say. ‘And he didn’t even win 14 games.’ They will be right, and the Cy Young award will begin to have meaning.” (Jess K. Coleman, featured columnist)

I don’t agree with Jess. I’m still a believer in wins being important for pitchers because it’s important in games, it’s important for quarterbacks and it’s important for goalies—both soccer and hockey.

“Ultimately, you look at how guys are able to win games,” says National League Cy Young award winner, Roy Halladay.

Now what does that mean for King Felix? Is he the start of a now wins needed trend? No, he’s the exception.

He has dominated David Price from Tampa and C.C. Sabathia from New York in every stat but wins.

Congrats for Felix Hernandez but don’t expect the same to happen in the future.

However, I will say this, wins are significant but wins alone will no longer grant Cy Young victory. High wins total will now need to be backed up with an ERA in the two’s and a high strikeout total.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Seattle Mariners did not have a picture perfect 2010 season. After a surprise 85-77 campaign in 2009, the Mariners lost 101 games last season, matching their 2008 low.

Ace starter Cliff Lee – their main acquisition a year ago – was traded to a division rival, and the Mariners finished the year with the worst record in the American League for the second time in three years.

As bad as 2010 was, their is hope in Seattle. The Mariners locked up Felix Hernandez early in the season, and their 24 year old top starter won his first Cy Young award with a 2.27 ERA and 232 strikeouts.

At the same time, the Mariners minor league system had a fine season. The Cliff Lee trade netted them three prospects, and the Mariners top minor league arm had a breakout season.

What Mariners prospects might make an impact with the 2011 club? Here’s ten.

Begin Slideshow

An important and long overdue message was sent to the baseball world the other day when Felix Hernandez, a 13-game winner, was announced as the winner of the 2010 Cy Young award over CC Sabathia, a 21-game winner.

The message was unequivocal. Twenty-one of the 28 voters believed the 24 year old should win the award, and for a good reason. Hernandez had the lowest ERA, the most innings pitched, the least amount of hits per nine innings and the most games started in the league. He also had more strikeouts and less walks than Sabathia.

Besides the fact that this was the right decision, this vote was a massive step towards the demise of a statistic that was once regarded as the most important method for evaluating a pitcher: the win.

“This confirms the Cy Young is an award not only for the pitcher with the most wins but the most dominant,” Hernandez said as he celebrated his first Cy Young award.

Hernandez is the first starting pitcher to win the Cy Young award with 13 wins or less since Fernando Valenzuela in 1981. That, alongside the overwhelming majority that voted for Hernandez, suggests people are beginning to uncover the ridiculous effects of considering wins.

The counter argument is simple, and was summed up just the other day by the National League Cy Young award winner, Roy Halladay. “Ultimately, you look at how guys are able to win games,” he said.

I don’t know if Halladay ever learned basic conceptual baseball, but someone should tell him that it is mathematically impossible for a pitcher to win a game on his own. He can pitch scoreless and hitless innings for 350 straight years, but until his team scores a run, he will never, ever win the game.

Now, it is true that a pitcher can severely help his team win a game. If a pitcher pitches a no-hitter, his team is more likely to win than if a pitcher gives up 15 runs. But those statistics are more accurately represented in other independent statistics.

ERA, strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed, etc., are all independent statistics; they are affected solely by the pitcher, and have no connection to his team’s offensive performance. In other words, a pitcher can give up 13 earned runs and still win the game (as Eddie Rommel did in 1932), or a pitcher can pitch a perfect game (as Roy Halladay did last year) and be awarded in the same way.

The win reflects absolutely nothing. You can pitch a horrible game or a great game, and it will all be recorded exactly the same when it comes to wins. ERA and other independent statistics, on the other hand, specifically illustrate a pitcher’s performance, and are thus a much better gauge of a players ability.

Starting in 2011, people will be able to cite historical evidence as to why wins should not be considered in the Cy Young discussion. “Hernandez won it in 2010,” they will say. “And he didn’t even win 14 games.” They will be right, and the Cy Young award will begin to have meaning.

Listen to Jess on What’s on Second: The Seamheads.com Radio Hour Monday nights at 9 p.m. ET. Follow him on Twitter  @jesskcoleman, or send him an e-mail at jess@jesskcoleman.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com