Kuzul

In the past two entries in an attempt to repair a broken team, we looked at Chone Figgins and Dustin Ackley. The two make up a reasonably probable combination of second and third basemen for much of next season.

However, if the Mariners attempt to avoid paying Ackley another arbitration year, they’ll need someone to hold his place until he is ultimately called to the big club, likely in mid-June.

The problem is that with limited budget space, the Mariners will have to find a guy who can competently play both second and third base, and won’t embarrass the club at the plate. But what the last two offseasons have shown is that players with league average bats, and average-below average defense at multiple positions simply aren’t as marketable as they once were.

Felipe Lopez is one of those guys. After a 2008 season where he lost an arbitration case that gave him a $4.9 million salary, and Lopez coming of a 0.9 WAR season in 2008, Lopez signed a $3.5 million deal to play for Arizona for a year. He’d flourish in Arizona, and later Milwaukee after being traded in July, en route to a 3.9 WAR season.

According to Fangraphs, in 2009 Lopez was worth $17.5 million. He wouldn’t receive close to that in the offseason.

Also, in the face of a recession, teams have been less willing to sign Type A free agents. Teams don’t want to exchange a draft pick for a player who won’t make major contributions, or in the case of many utility players, won’t have a truly defined role on the team.

Having a league average bat that can be plugged into multiple positions holds some value with clubs, but that value appears to be trending down. Lopez was one of many who have been victimized by the recent emphasis on avoiding marginal Type A free agents.

It appears that won’t be the case for Lopez going into the 2010 offseason, as his 2010 performance appears to have dropped him to Type B status, which means that his signing team will not have to give up a draft pick, and that the team he comes from (St. Louis Cardinals) will be awarded a compensatory round pick.

The major downside, obviously, of sliding down to Type B status, is that it comes at the hands of a poor 2010 performance. So while teams may be more willing to discuss bringing Lopez in, the chances of him receiving a large raise on his $1 million 2010 salary are not very good.

So how can Lopez help the Mariners?

Well apart from a wRC+ of 96 for his career, Lopez has 5156 innings at shortstop, 2636.1 innings at second base, and 1231 innings at third base for his career. According to UZR, his defense gets closer to league average respectively. He’s a -10.8 UZR/150 for his career at short, -1.3 at second, and 3.4 at third. In terms of WAR, Lopez is only 1.9 behind Jack Wilson for his career, while amassing over 300 less plate appearances, though both of their careers began in 2010.

Utility is great, but there is a reason why teams have shied away from signing utility men to big dollars: because while they may act as insurance, limiting the deductible on the premium has become more important.

That stated, in the case of the Mariners, where Lopez’s successor is waiting in Tacoma, the same guy that plays second base for the first two months of the season will need to have a function on the roster after Ackley is brought up.

An interesting fact about Lopez, and a surprising amount of the league’s switch hitters, is that he actually hits better from the right side than the left. Logic would dictate that player who hits better right handed would be a poor switch hitter, as he’d see a disproportionate majority of right-handed pitchers, and thus deviate from his strong side of the plate on most at bats.

But since Ackley is left-handed and has performed poorly against lefties so far in the minors, Lopez could become a viable platoon partner. Also, while his defense is far from stellar at shortstop, he’d be an offensive upgrade over both Jack and Josh Wilson against even right-handed pitchers. Lopez’s 76 wRC+ tops Jack’s 64, and Josh’s 72.

However, Lopez’s ugly 2010 can’t go unanalyzed. Is Lopez really as bad as his 2010 season?

It’d be easy to look at Lopez’s career .316 BABIP, and his 2010 BABIP of .272, and dismiss 2010 as bad luck. Lopez had long been a guy with a ton of physical tools, but one who rarely put them all together for a full season.

But in most seasons, Lopez has done some things really well. That hasn’t been the case in 2010.

It’s interesting to examine Lopez’s peripheral stats from 2005, a year when he hit 23 home runs for Cincinnati, compared to his 2010 stats. Lopez line drive percentage in 2010 is 18 percent, the lowest output of his career, though his numbers have remained pretty steady between 19 and 20 percent for most of his career. 2005 however, was a season where Lopez hit a career-high 53.2 percent ground balls.

Why would a season where Lopez hit so many groundballs also yield his highest home run total?

Well, despite hitting a lower percentage of fly balls than he has in any other year, Lopez boasted an eye-popping 18.3 HR/FB percentage. It would be really easy to again dismiss the deviation in production as luck, as Lopez hasn’t topped 10.1 percent in any season apart from 2001, when he hit only 63 fly balls. However, one must wonder how much playing in Cincinnati helped Lopez that season.

According to Baseball Reference, Great American Ballpark had a park factor of 103 that season (anything over 100 favors hitters), while Busch Stadium III boasts a 98 park factor this year. However, the environment was different that year, as homeruns have decreased by about seven percent since then.

So in a hitter’s park and a more friendly home run environment (ahem, the tail end of the steroid era), Lopez hit more home runs.

But last year, fueled by an inflated BABIP, Lopez managed to produce in Arizona (110 park factor) and Milwaukee (95 park factor). So what gives?

Well, Lopez’s already inflated .348 BABIP in Arizona rose to .372 in Milwaukee.

So while his 86 wRC+ in 2010 comes in part as a result of bad luck, his great 2009 shouldn’t receive a disproportionate amount of credibility, as his luck was incredibly good that season.

Either way, if Lopez is willing to take a one year deal, or even a minor league deal with the opportunity to start for two months and play considerable time afterwards, he’d be a good fit for Seattle’s needs.

Other Fixing the 2011 Seattle Mariners profiles

Ted Lilly

Ramon Hernandez

Michael Saunders

Colby Rasmus

Adam Dunn

Chone Figgins

Dustin Ackley

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Mariners‘ biggest problem in recent years has been management’s inability to let the baseball people make the baseball decisions. The signing of Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre after the 2004 season for instance. Howard Lincoln and the other Mariners’ owners have sometimes shown the willingness to spend, but always at the wrong time. 

2000- Alex Rodriguez hits free agency. Management offers him $100 million to stay in an M’s uniform. He says he wants the richest contract in baseball history, and declines to sign with the Mariners unless they up their offer. Howard Lincoln, et al, refuse to do so, and A-Rod proceeds to sign with the Texas Rangers for 10 years, $254 million. 

I’m not saying that the owners should have opened their wallets that wide, but at the time, the largest contract in baseball history wasn’t really much more than the $100 million that they were offering. ($100 million over 8 years, roughly $12 million per year). At that time, the largest contract in baseball history belonged to Ken Griffey, Jr, coming in at $116 million over nine years. If management ups their offer to ten years, $130 million, Alex Rodriguez is a Mariner until 2011. Say what you want about him, but at the time, Rodriguez was the best player in baseball period. 

1998- Randy Johnson wants a contract extension and he wants the Mariners to show that they are willing to spend the money it takes to build a contender. Management offered Johnson a well below market offer, he tanked the season and was traded at the deadline to the Astros. If Johnson is given his extension, he finishes his career with the Mariners, acquiring win #300 along the way. 

1999- Ken Griffey, Jr. wants a large contract, wants the team to show they want to win, or he wants to be traded to his hometown Cincinnati Reds, (because of his full no trade protection, he has the ability to stop a trade to any team he doesn’t like, and with his contract expiring at the end of the 1999 season, he could walk, leaving the Mariners with nothing). Management is unwilling to spend the dough, and the House that Griffey Built would not see its namesake play within her walls for 9 years. 

2004- Management is desperate for sluggers. The best sluggers available are Richie Sexson (right-handed) and Adrian Beltre (also right-handed). Unfortunately, right handed sluggers never fare well within the friendly (or hostile, depending on the perspective) confines of SafeCo Field. As many fans predicted, Beltre and Sexson both disappointed at the plate. That’s not to say that Beltre wasn’t worth every penny. His defense brought his value sky high, but if he had been able to live up to expectations at the plate, he would have been a bargain. 

2007- Management signs Ichiro to a $90 million extension, and then keeps him, instead of trading him for a boatload of prospects, saving cash in the process. I’m not saying that I don’t like Ichiro. On the contrary he happens to be one of my favorite players ever. However, the first mistake that the Mariners made was not trading Ichiro immediately after the 2004 season, when he broke George Sisler’s single-season hits record. At that point, his value was higher than it has been at any point since. The prospects the Mariners could have gotten from trading Ichiro alone would have been enough to jump start the rebuilding process that it took until the end of 2008 for the owners to realize was necessary.

All of the examples above are used to highlight the recent times when the owners opened (or shut) their wallets at a bad time. Unfortunately, most of the times that management was willing to spend money was for one reason and one reason alone: to make more.

Take the Ichiro extension for instance: the revenue that the Mariners earn from Ichiro’s celebrity status in Japan alone pays for his contract and then some.

The Beltre/Sexson signings were intended to boost attendance, and they did, for a while, until fans were once again sent home shaking their heads in disgust.

All of the problems that the Mariners are facing right now (having to try to lure players up to the Northwest, but being unable to compete with the Yankees and other teams as far as money/respectability is concerned) could be wiped away with one simple, logical move: Paul Allen must successfully make a bid to purchase the team from the current owners.

If you haven’t heard of Paul Allen, you might want to get your head examined, or crawl out of the box you’ve been living in for the last 25 years.

Allen, the co-founder of Microsoft, Inc., is the 37th richest man in the world, with a net worth of around $14 billion (personal net worth, his companies are worth much, much more).

To the average person, looking at a 37th wealthiest ranking isn’t that impressive, especially when you take into consideration that Bill Gates also lives in Seattle, and is always ranked in the top 5.

What IS impressive, however, is the fact that Allen is the #1 wealthiest sports franchise owner in the U.S.

His personal wealth makes Hank Steinbrenner look like a pauper. He could, with no assistance from any other investors, buy the New York Yankees, Dallas Cowboys, and L.A. Lakers (three most valuable franchises in their respective sports) three times each and still have a couple billion left over. 

The Seattle Mariners are valued at around $439 million. Paul Allen probably has that much tucked underneath the mattress in the master bedroom aboard his $250 million yacht, Octopus. 

If he were to make an offer of around $500 million to purchase the team, Howard Lincoln and the other owners would be hard pressed to turn the offer down, as it would be a 500% profit from what they spent when they purchased the team in 1992. 

Allen could then buy any player he wanted, turning the Mariners into the Yankees. I’m not saying that he should do that, just that he could. What I actually think he should do is open the wallet to keep the talent we have, and open it as wide as is necessary to bring in the best players available via free agency. 

Imagine A-Rod, Teixera, and Beltre in the infield and Ichiro, Holliday, and Guttierrez in the outfield. 

How about Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, and John Lackey taking up the top 4 slots in the M’s rotation? 

The days of being bargain shoppers would be over. Jack Zduriencek would be able to pick which players he thought would best serve the team’s needs and go after them. Gone would be the days of picking players up off the scrap heap and hoping they would be able to resurrect their careers in the spacious confines of SafeCo Field. Instead, the M’s would be able to choose the cream of the crop, leaving the hated Yankees with whatever is left. 

Sure, there would be some bad contracts, some bad trades, and some bad seasons. But that’s baseball. In the end, Paul Allen has shown he’ll spend whatever money it takes to keep the teams he owns competitive. Look at the Seattle Seahawks. Look at the Seattle Sounders. Look at the Portland Trail Blazers. In the end, Mr. Allen would spend whatever money was necessary and he wouldn’t stop until he was holding the World Series Trophy in his hands. 

Credit to Casey McClain for the inspiration for this story, as well as the headline. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Perhaps the biggest storyline in the 2011 offseason for Mariners‘ fans will be the development, and potential big league assignment of Dustin Ackley. The second-overall pick in the 2009 draft has transitioned to second base, and after what seemed to be a lackluster destiny for Ackley in the outfield—likely a corner position with Franklin Gutierrez around—has turned into one where Ackley has a reasonably probability of out producing most players at his position at the plate.

Even the most glowing scouting reports haven’t claimed that Ackley is a finished product in the field, though there is reason to believe that he’ll be able to handle the position at the highest level. Errors are an incomplete measure of a player’s defensive ability, especially while learning a new position, but Ackley made only 18 in 510 chances in his first year in the minors, and his first year at second base.

Perhaps the best that fans can hope for is an average fielder. However, where the true potential lies for Ackley is at the plate.

Noted as a player with a good eye, Ackley started the year off in AA walking more often than he struck out, and walked in 15.7 percent of his plate appearances. His total AA slash line (.263/.389/.384) may not be cause for inspiration, but when his ugly start is factored in, and his respectable numbers in 237 AAA plate appearances, Ackley’s performed pretty well for most of the season.

Some people seem intent on projecting Ackley to hit for power. While it’s possible, the chances of Ackley developing true “power” are pretty slim. Hitting 20 home runs in the big leagues is a reasonably reachable plateau, but anything more would probably be more the result of luck, or come at the expense of his contact/walk skills. He’s probably simply not going to hit many balls over 400 feet, and even as a lefty in Seattle, low-moderate power typically goes pretty unrewarded on its own in the big leagues. That doesn’t mean however, that Ackley can’t develop into a pretty proficient doubles hitter.

Ackley’s developing stroke, combined with high-level foot speed, should allow him to put some balls into gaps, but also stretch some singles into doubles on occasion. He’s also hit eight triples this year, and while it’s hard to call anyone a “triples hitter,” Ackley’s got the kind of profile that could lead to him being close to the league lead in the category in the future.

So who is a reasonable comparison for Ackley in the bigs?

That seems like a simple question. However, it is one that is all-too-often answered with the name Chase Utley. Utley is a guy that averages close to 400 feet per home run, and hits a lot of them. Perhaps the comparison comes because Utley is not considered a wiz by some scouts defensively. UZR does like Utley’s defense however, putting him at 14 UZR/150 for his career. Ackley’s defensive potential probably peaks around league average. The reality is that Chase Utley does a lot of things that Ackley never will.

Perhaps a more realistic peak is Brian Roberts. That’s not to say that Roberts is any slouch however. While Utley posted three straight seasons from 2007-09 where he produced 7.6 WAR or better, over the same seasons, Roberts posted 4.7,4.8, and 3.9 WAR respectively. Roberts, whose career UZR/150 at second is 4.1, loses about a full WAR per year compared to Utley though.

In those three seasons at the plate, Utley produced 118 RAR, while Roberts produced 60.8 RAR. That comes out to about two wins per season difference.

Roberts however, produced his wins on the legs of 149 doubles, 14 triples, 37 home runs, 120 stolen bases, and a walk rate around 11.5 percent over that span.

Perhaps the next step down is Orlando Hudson. Hudson is a about a league average offensive player (104 wRC+) and prior to 2010, had posted four straight below average seasons at second base according to UZR. While scouting reports like Hudson’s defense a lot more than contemporary metrics, his offense/defense combination suits Ackley’s skill set. Despite middling defense and league average offensive skills (Hudson was actually a ways above league average in three of those four seasons) he posted 9.6 WAR from 2006-2009.

There is however, the possibility that Ackley is ultimately a circus in the field, and provides such little or negative value at second base defensively that he ultimately has to move back to the outfield. The Mariners would likely try to push that realization back until Franklin Gutierrez is no longer roaming center field, whether by performance, trade, or the end of his four year contract (2013). Ackley has limited value in a corner outfield position, as those positions are typically reserved for hitters that produce more power (and apart from first base, they’re hard to find at other positions).

In center field, Ackley’s defense is much less of a concern. Ackley played outfield in college, and his foot speed lends itself to rangy outfielders. Of course, a transition to the outfield likely pushes Ackley’s debut season back, but if he does find himself there, Brett Gardner may be the best comparison available.

It’s crazy to think that Gardner was once offered to the Mariners in exchange for Jarrod Washburn. It’s especially crazy to think that it was before the arrival of Jack Zduriencik, and ultimately Franklin Gutierrez. Of all the ugly signings and trades that Bill Bavasi made, the non-trade of Jarrod Washburn may ultimately be his greatest misstep.

Like Ackley, Gardner was always projected as a guy who made a lot of contact, knew the strike zone, and wouldn’t ever hit for much power. His career .097 ISO agrees with the assessment of lacking power, however, even the staunchest Moneyball loyalist couldn’t have predicted Gardner would walk 14 percent of his 2010 plate appearances, and steal 40 bases at a success rate over 80 percent. Ackley possesses all of the strengths that Gardner does, with potential to hit for power.

So with three meaningless possibilities analyzed, and one meaningless, irresponsible projection removed, the question becomes: When will Dustin Ackley become a Seattle Mariner full time?

That’s up for debate. If the Mariners non-tender Jose Lopez they’ll have a hole at either second or third base. If Chone Figgins moves to third base, the Mariners options probably consist of: an inexpensive free agent, Josh Wilson, or Ackley at second base. The list off already-contributing free agent second baseman pretty much begins and ends with Orlando Hudson. Hudson signed a one-year contract for $5 million with the Twins this year. He’ll likely command more this offseason.

While simple logic points to trying Ackley there from the beginning of the season, as Wilson is a known commodity, and a below-average offensive player, Ackley may fall victim to the league-wide attempt to avoid making top prospects Super Two players. Hanging on to another year of team control at a discount rate, as Ackley would only go to arbitration three times instead of four, is likely in the Mariners plans. But chances are, his place holder will be somebody who comes with some extending time producing at a rate below Ackley’s potential.

All signs point to Ackley receiving significant playing time in 2011, but the chance of him being called up to the big club before mid-June seems pretty small at this point. 

Other Fixing the 2011 Seattle Mariners profiles

Ted Lilly

Ramon Hernandez

Michael Saunders

Colby Rasmus

Adam Dunn

Chone Figgins

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

When the Seattle Mariners signed Chone Figgins they expected that he’d be an offensive upgrade over Adrian Beltre. Little did the fans know that he’d play second base instead of third base, where he’d made a home in the past two seasons with the Angels.

Figgins’ fielding aside, he’s had a significant drop off in production since becoming a Mariner. And while expectations have been of high-level production have made Figgins a frequent scapegoat, he seems to have taken on some of the fan disappointment that should be aimed at Jose Lopez, who has taken Beltre’s place at the hot corner. The truth is that Figgins has been about equal to the 2009 version of Beltre with the bat, though his transition to second base hasn’t been one to be characterized as successful.

Figgins is a player that relies pretty heavily on balls in play turning into hits. He doesn’t frequently hit the ball with much authority, with only 32 home runs in almost 4,700 plate appearances, and only 220 doubles and triples, several of which were assuredly helped by his foot speed rather than his bat speed. While Figgins .305 BABIP comes in at an above-league-average mark in 2010, he’s actually taken a pretty significant hit on what may be considered his true talent, a career BABIP of .337.

What is Figgins doing wrong?

Analyzing Figgins BABIP goes beyond just the number. 2006 was the only other season in which Figgins posted a BABIP under .333, and unsurprisingly, that was also the only other year where he hit less than 22 percent line drives. Line drives rate is kind of a convoluted stat, as scorer bias could play a role in the rate, and it’s not always steady from year to year. However, a generally accepted truth is that while line drives may be subjective, what is considered a line drive by most score keepers is also very likely to be a hit.

Figgins career BABIP on line drives, which he hits at a 23.2 percent rate for his career, is .725. In 2010, Figgins has doubled down on decreased rate, reaching base on less line drives, while hitting them at a lower rate, with a BABIP on line drives of .695.

Figgins has hit 82 line drives this year. If he’d hit 23.2 percent line drives instead of 20, he’d have 95 line drives. If he’d performed up to his career BABIP average on line drives he’d have accrued 12 more hits this season. That’d equate to a .271 batting average, rather than the .249 he’s presently sporting.

As a guy without a lot of power and a propensity for contact, one may assume that Figgins reaches base on a lot of infield hits. The reality is that Figgins’ 18 infield hits this season mark his highest output since 2004. That said, his BABIP is only three points lower than his career average on ground balls. On fly balls however, his BABIP is about 20 points lower.

Teams could be playing Figgins differently in Safeco, where his already low-level threat of clearing the outfielders may be reduced by unfriendly hitting conditions, but more likely is that he’s simply been unlucky on fly balls this year.

So if we believe that Figgins is simply unlucky in 2010, something around a .270/.350/.330 line seem more realistic in 2011.

The most interesting part of Figgins’ offseason however, is whether or not he’ll ultimately make the switch back to third base. Jose Lopez appears likely to be non-tendered, and the Mariners have Dustin Ackley waiting to take over at second base. Ackley is a walk machine with great speed and developing power. His strikeout rates are incredible in the minors considering that he walks so frequently, and his .165 ISO in AAA is a promising power rate.

Figgins posted two straight 17+ UZR/150 seasons at third base. According to UZR, he was MLB’s second-best fielding third baseman, behind only Evan Longoria (and ahead of Beltre) from 2008-09. Presuming that he hasn’t forgotten how to play the position, a shift back to third may prove highly beneficial for the Mariners, where even half that defensive production would basically give Figgins an extra 2 WAR without including his batting numbers. If he regresses to the mean at the plate the team could easily be looking at a four win player where they’re presently boasting a replacement level player in Jose Lopez. If Ackley is worth a win (which is a modest, realistic expectation), it would be a total 5 WAR gain.

Figgins is set to make $26 million in the next three seasons, and could vest his $9 million option with 600 plate appearances in 2013. The Mariners may have had the opportunity to trade him at the deadline, but declined to. That opportunity likely won’t exist this offseason.

Lopez seems likely to be non-tendered in the offseason. While his transition to third base went very well defensively (6.4 UZR/150), his year at the plate has gone equally poorly. Lopez has been criticized for being a dead-pull hitter, impatient at the plate, and lacking the power that his weight gain should have fostered. His ISO is at an all-time low (.087), while his walk rate remains below four percent, and he’s seen less pitches per plate appearance than ever before (3.41). He’s shown little willingness to work on his game, and it’s possible that the book is finally out on Lopez. The pull hitter has seen more curveballs and changeups this season than any other, and is performing at the worst rate of his career on each pitch. He’s seeing more pitches outside the zone this season than ever before, but also swinging at the highest percentage of pitches outside the zone he ever has.

And it is very likely that if Chone Figgins were to hit the free agent market this season as a third baseman, he’d be the best third baseman on the market apart from the productive reincarnation of Adrian Beltre.

The Mariners may have bought high on a volatile asset in the soft-hitting Figgins, but if his luck returns in 2011, and he returns to third base, the Mariners should see a positive shift in total production.

Other Fixing the 2011 Mariners profiles

Ted Lilly

Ramon Hernandez

Michael Saunders

Colby Rasmus

Adam Dunn

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s been a sad year for the Seattle Mariners, but their AAA affiliate, the Tacoma Rainiers, is getting ready to play the A’s AAA affiliate, the Sacramento River Cats, for the Pacific Coast League title starting tonight.

Last year I talked with Kevin Kalal, a longtime Rainiers official, about the 1995 Rainiers and Mariners. To help get fans ready for the playoff series, here, from the interview, is his story about how the Rainiers went from being the A’s affiliate to the Mariners affiliate in ’95.

Kevin Kalal: We’d been the A’s affiliate from 1981 to 1994, and there was some benefit to that. We got to see Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Walt Weiss, three Rookies of the Year in a row. But in ’94 we had an expiring contract, and so did Calgary, the Mariners’ affiliate.

When we posted scores for the major league games, our fans would do nothing when the A’s scored, but they’d cheer when the Mariners scored. The A’s were so much farther away; a lot of fans would never see the Tigers’ players again. It was a natural fit with the Mariners, and in October of 1994 we announced we were going to be with the Mariners the next season. There was a lot of enthusiasm in anticipation of the season.

Actually even before that the Mariners, because of the tiles falling from the Kingdome in ’94, they were going to play their games at Cheney Stadium, or in Anaheim, while they fixed the Kingdome roof. Of course the strike stopped that, but it still shifted attention to our organization, our facilities. Around that time we were playing the Cannons, and Alex Rodriguez hit a homer in extra innings to win the game.

’95 was an exciting time. There were these questions about what’s going to happen if the season doesn’t start on time, will we use scab players, replacements.

In fact, five or seven of the guys who started the season, people like Terrell Hansen and Marty Pevey, were not everyday guys, they wouldn’t’ve ordinarily been on the team. We had one fireman who’d been a player and he made the team. Then when the major league rosters got readjusted after the strike ended we had brand new players.

We had a major turnover in our front office staff going from the A’s to the Mariners. We needed to break away from the green and gold, so we came up with a new logo, a new team name.

A lot of people really didn’t like the decision to be called the Rainiers. The detractors didn’t like “Rainiers;” they said it was too tied up with Seattle. “Why were we naming the team after a Seattle franchise?” They said our teams were the Tigers, and some of them would wear Tigers clothes to the game.

We had a really good team in ’95, but lots of transition, guys coming and going. Two great shortstops, Alex Rodriguez and Andy Sheets.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Before I begin, I must state two things: I am a Yankees fan and I fully believe in utilizing advanced metrics to determine who deserves certain awards.

What exactly does that mean? That means I think the individual performance should far outweigh aspects of a player’s profile that are affected by their team’s performance.

For example, I look at Bartolo Colon’s 2005 Cy Young to be a travesty of the greatest magnitude. Why? Because I think Bartolo Colon’s 21 wins should not outweigh the fact that Johan Santana had an ERA 0.61 lower than Colon in nine more innings, not to mention Santana’s 81 more strikeouts and 35 fewer hits allowed (in just nine more innings, mind you!).

So why did Colon win the Cy Young in 2005? Because the Angels offense managed 761 runs (and a 93-69 record) that season compared to the Twins 688 runs (and their 83-79 record).

I’ve seen this argument a thousand times and, despite being right, no stat nerd will ever be able to convince an ignorant individual otherwise. Wins will always hold a ridiculous place in the public’s view of a starting pitcher; it’s why the award is named after Cy Young (the all-time leader in wins) and not Walter Johnson (a better pitcher than Cy Young); even though I think the Johnson Award would be a pretty cool name for the prize.

So why does any of this matter? I mean, Zack Greinke won the Cy Young last season despite the fact that he only finished with 16 wins. But last year the next closest pitchers (Hernandez, Sabathia, and Verlander) only finished with 19 wins. Greinke didn’t have as many wins as his nearest competitors, but 20 wins is looked at as a magic number and nobody reached it.

As CC Sabathia nears 20 wins, the debate between traditionalists and new age sabermatricians has taken to a whole new level.

Why? Because Felix Hernandez is currently the best pitcher in the American League despite the fact that he only has 10 wins—compared to CC Sabathia’s 19.

At the moment, CC Sabathia’s statistics are as follows: 29 GS, 19-5, 3.02 ERA, 202.2 IP, 165 SO, and a 1.20 WHIP.

Correspondingly, Felix Hernandez has posted the following stats: 29 GS, 10-10, 2.38 ERA, 211.1 IP, 200 SO, and a 1.10 WHIP.

Without even getting into advanced metrics (and I’d hardly call what I’m about to use advanced metrics) we can see that Hernandez has vastly outperformed Sabathia in every category except for wins.

As for the “advanced metrics,” I will list them for each pitcher. I believe the reader can discern what each stat means based on their traditional baseball abbreviation and an understanding of grammar school math.

Sabathia: K/9: 7.33; BB/9: 2.89; H/9: 7.90; K/BB: 2.54

Hernandez: K/9: 8.52; BB/9: 2.51; H/9: 7.41; K/BB: 3.39

So what does that mean? That means Felix Hernandez has pitched more innings than CC Sabathia while striking out more batters per nine innings, allowing fewer walks and hits per nine innings, and posting a better K/BB ratio. I won’t even get into statistics such as WAR, VORP, or ERA+ (all of which Hernandez leads Sabathia in).

The only “significant” category Sabathia leads Hernandez in is wins.

Why is that?

Perhaps it’s because Sabathia’s Yankees have scored 740 runs against the Mariners’ 435 runs. If 305 runs on offense doesn’t account for the difference between 19 wins and 10 wins, I don’t know what does.

However, some may say, “if all things were equal than Felix Hernandez would be pitching in the AL East, a much tougher division than the AL West.” That’s true…but there are also stats that make that argument seem foolish.

Here are Sabathia and Hernandez’s numbers against each other’s divisions.

Sabathia vs. AL West: 7 games, 6-1 W-L, 50.2 IP, 37 SO, 1.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Hernandez vs. AL East: 6 games, 5-0 W-L, 49.1 IP, 53 SO, 0.55 ERA, 0.79 WHIP

Whoops…so much for that argument. By the way, Hernandez’s record against the AL East includes a 3-0 record against the Yankees—the best offensive team in baseball—with a 0.35 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP.

And for those who say Hernandez doesn’t have to face the AL East regularly, remember that CC Sabathia NEVER has to face the Yankees, a team that Hernandez has dominated.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’d love for Carsten Charles to win the Cy Young award. In fact, I don’t think there is a pitcher in the American League—besides Felix Hernandez of course—that deserves the award other than him. In fact, I’d be willing to accept the necessary evil of Sabathia winning the award as long as Clay Buchholz doesn’t win it.

But that is something better saved for another article. However, just for thought—and because it relates to Buchholz’s Cy Young candidacy—consider the fact that Mariano Rivera finished second in the 2005 voting ahead of Johan Santana despite the fact that Santana had 153.1 more innings pitched than Rivera. You look at the stats and figure out the correlation.

Unfortunately, I think that this season Felix Hernandez will have to suffer the same indignity Santana faced when he came in third place in Cy Young voting in 2005, despite clearly deserving to win the award.

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Mired in a hole of one poor transaction after another, the Seattle Mariners are nine years removed from their last playoff berth.

They have struggled with upper level management, found it difficult to find perennial stars in the lineup, and haven’t been able to solidify their rotation.

Much of these struggles can be amplified by a series of questionable moves that the franchise has made in recent memory, because there are quite a few of them.

For a team looking to ultimately contend in the AL West for the the first time in much too long, they must stray away from the bad moves of the past.

The team must not dwell on the struggles, but the Mariners organization must avoid making the same mistakes twice, again.

Here are the 10 worst moves made by the Seattle Mariners over the course of the last decade.

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The Seattle Mariners have shut down top pitching prospect Michael Pineda for the season after throwing 139.1 innings for the year (last season he was limited to just 12 appearances and 47.1 innings).  Let’s take a look back and review his year.

Pineda opened the year at Double-A where he excelled.  In 13 starts (77.0 innings), he went 8-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.  If that wasn’t enough, he did a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the ballpark (only 1 HR), piled up the strikeouts (9.1 K/9) and was stingy with the walks (2.0 BB/9).

The one red flag was that lefties hit .286 against him, but it was based on a .374 BABIP.  It certainly was nothing to be concerned about.

Once promoted to Triple-A, some of the numbers fell significantly, actually.  The PCL is certainly a hitter’s league, but he allowed 9 HR in just 62.1 innings while there.  It’s not like he is an extreme fly ball pitcher (35.4% while at Triple-A and 34.2% for his career), so you have to consider this an aberration.  He has never been plagued by the long ball before, so the competition and the stadiums were a major factor.

You can say the same thing about his 4.76 ERA.  Just take a look at his home/road split:

• Home – 5.83
• Road – 3.82

Again, this is not something that should be considered a huge concern, simply based on the league.  You also have to think, given the innings increase from his injury shortened 2009, he easily could have tired as the season progressed.

In his last two starts he allowed 10 earned runs over just 8.0 innings.  There certainly could be something to that theory.

You have to like that he continued to strike batters out (11.0 K/9), limit the walks (2.5 BB/9) and put up a solid WHIP (1.14).  It’s also not like he was extremely lucky to get that WHIP, with a .312 BABIP.

While the numbers jump out as being ugly on the surface, there’s an awful lot to like about him.

Prior to 2010, Baseball America had him ranked as the Mariners sixth best prospect overall and their best pitching prospect.  They also had him marked as having the organizations best fastball and control.  He certainly showed both of those things and lived up to the hype.

After elbow strains caused two stints on the DL in 2009, you can’t argue with the team’s thinking, either.  Just look at what Ryan Divish of the News Tribune (click here for the article) recently said about his stuff:

“His velocity on his fastball was pretty good, topping out at 97 mph and sitting usually around 94-96. However, he didn’t have good command of the pitch – many of them up in the zone and his slider lacked some of the depth that it usually has. He just wasn’t as crisp as I’ve seen him when he first got called up to Tacoma. The life on some of his pitches was missing despite him feeling strong.”

At 21-years old, he certainly has the potential to emerge in 2011 as part of the Mariners rotation.  Keep a close eye on him, as he is entering what may be the perfect situation.  He has great control, a terrific fastball that leads to strikeouts and would call a pitcher’s park home.  What’s not to like?

I’m not about to dub him a 2011 fantasy ace, but if/when he gets his shot, he certainly has the potential to be a solid option in all formats.

What are your thoughts on Pineda?  Could he be a viable 2011 option?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our Prospect Tracker, for links to the latest updates on all the top prospects in baseball, by clicking here.

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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This article and other ones like it can be found on North and South of Royal Brougham.

The Mariners have been awful this season. As laid out by USS Mariner, the Mariners will likely need to improve several positions in 2011 in order to have a viable roster to compete. In the same article, Dave Cameron points out that the team will likely only have a little over $10 million to spend on free agency.

The article was written in mid-June, and since then the team has traded Mark Lowe (who went in the Cliff Lee deal), and his $1.15 million, and potential slight raise, are off the books. If we assume that Lowe would make $1.25 million in 2011 (perhaps a modest estimate) that means that the Mariners in fact will have close to $12 million to spend on free agency.

Like many of Jack Zduriencik’s shrewdest acquisitions, Lilly is a pitcher that lives and dies by pitching fly balls that don’t leave the yard. Lilly’s 50.4 percent fly ball rate hardly describe a groundball pitcher, and his 9.4 HR/FB percentage are about 1.5 percent above league average.

Lilly has pitched in the National League, often considered the little brother to the American League, for the last four years. And while not facing the DH has certainly helped Lilly’s stats, pitching in Wrigley Field simply couldn’t have. In terms of park factors, Wrigley rates at a 111 in favor of hitters (anything over 100 favors hitters) in 2010, it matches the 111 mark in 2009, and 105 in 2008, good for a multi-year rating of 108. Safeco comes in at 96, 97, 97, good for a multi-year rating of 97.

Those three years however, have represented Lilly’s three lowest xFIP’s since 2003, when he pitched in Oakland. So what is the 35 year old doing differently?

For this article, we’ll examine the possibility of the team signing Ted Lilly.

Lilly has throw his fastball less frequently in each of those three seasons than he has since 2004 (48.9 percent, 51.1, 53.9 respectively, compared to 52 percent in 2004, and close to or greater than 55 percent in most other seasons). He’s also throwing his curve-ball less, after throwing the hook about 16 percent of the time from 2003-2007, he’s thrown it 11.3, 11.3, and 8.4 percent in each respective year.

Lilly has replaced the former two pitches by throwing his slider more frequently. He’s thrown his slider 23.7, 25.9, 21.6 percent in past three respective seasons, up from a career high of 15.4 percent in 2006. In 2008 his slider was worth 2.66 runs per 100 pitches according to Fangraphs pitch type values. His fastball, which sat under one run per 100 pitches in most seasons before, plummeted to -0.92 runs per 100 pitches, though his change up had a positive value for the first time in 2003.

In subsequent seasons his slider has decreased in value, but it has greatly improved his fastball and curveball values, while still maintaining a positive change up.  The alteration of repertoire has manifested itself tangibly in terms of infield fly balls. This season, Lilly’s IFFB percentage sits at around 21 percent, compared to around a 13 percent league average.

Part of the philosophy that has made Jason Vargas so successful in Safeco Field is that while Safeco favors left-handed hitters, Vargas’ left handedness helps to neutralize those effects, while the cavernous park helps those flyballs elude the stands, and also help to neutralize righties.

Lilly hasn’t statistically neutralized lefties since throwing his slider more, but the trend may have more to do with the park he played in than the pitches he threw. In years leading up to his time with the Cubs, Lilly’s HR/FB ratio was higher against righties than lefties. Since Lilly started throwing his slider more often, it’s been the opposite.

Tom Gorzellany, a lefty for the present Cubs had pretty conventional platoon splits in terms of righty-lefty HR/FB  2008, his last season with 100 innings before joining the Cubs. This season, his ratio has flip-flopped just like Lilly’s.

So if we assume that Lilly’s problems against lefties are more a product of Wrigley than ability, it’s conceivable that it would reverse upon re-entering a more neutral park. And Safeco’s deep left-center power alley could also conceivably help to sustain his present effectiveness against righties.

In Lilly, the Mariners would have a pitcher who averages about two more strikeouts than Vargas per nine innings for his career, while walking about the same amount.

But what is Lilly worth on the open market? In 2007 as a player entering his age 31 season, Lilly signed a four-year, $40 million contract. Since then, the economy has struggled, and teams are way less likely to spend on long term contracts for players in their mid-30s. However, according to Fangraphs WAR values, Lilly’s contract has been recession proof.

The veteran lefty has been worth $50.8 million and counting over the course of his contract. Lilly has been good for 8.2 WAR and counting in the past three seasons.

Last year an age 34 Doug Davis, who was worth 6.5 WAR in the three years leading up to free agency, signed a one year contract worth $5.25 million (including $1 million buyout on mutual 2011 option).

An age 33 Randy Wolf, worth 6.7 WAR in the preceding three seasons inked a three year, $29.75 million contract.

Davis and Wolf represent perhaps completely opposite ends of the spectrum. Wolf was coming off of three straight seasons in which he’d played under one-year deals, while Davis had just reached the end of a three-year deal he’d signed in Arizona. Wolf’s WAR had increased in each season, leading to a 3.0 WAR in 2009, while Davis’ WAR had descended to a 1.7 mark, close to where Lilly sits with a month to go in 2010.

Wolf was a type A free agent entering the 2010 offseason, while Davis was a type B. Lilly is presently projected to be a type A free agent, though the same Dodgers that declined to offer Wolf arbitration, thus forgoing draft pick compensation, presently possess the rights to Lilly.

The reality is that being a year older than Davis, and two years older than Wolf when they signed their deals, Lilly will face less suitors.

A two-year, $14 million pact may be reasonable for both sides. Lilly’s value hasn’t been less than $7 million in a season since 2005, but his age may preclude him from receiving top dollar. The Mariners should be confident that a change in venue will help Lilly stave off father time, while Lilly’s camp will likely understand his open market value.

It only takes one team to perceive Lilly’s value significantly higher to foil the Mariners plans, but Lilly should definitely be considered this offseason.

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There are many deserving pitchers for the Cy Young award in the American League this year, but there is one pitcher who has stood above the rest this season.

King Felix.

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez is the AL leader in innings pitched this season with 204.1 and strikeouts with 192. Felix has a 2.47 ERA this season, good for third in the AL and a WHIP of 1.11, tying him for third in the league.

Felix is the only pitcher in the league in the top five in all of these categories, and Felix has been absolutely outstanding as of late.

The hard-throwing Venezuelan has a minuscule ERA of 0.98 during the month of August as opponents have hit just .199 off of him.  The only problem Felix has had this month, is the same problem he’s had all season, he just hasn’t gotten the run support to win games.

Despite his dominance this month, Felix still managed to lose two of his five starts.

Felix has a marginal record of ten wins and ten losses this season thanks to the less-than-stellar run support the M’s offense has given him this year.

In the past, the three main pieces of criteria Cy Young voters used to determine who they would vote for was wins, ERA, and strikeouts.

Last season Kansas City Royals ace Zach Greinke may have set a new precedent when he won the award with only 16 wins, the fewest wins by an AL Cy Young winner since David Cone won while also a member of the Royals in 1994.

There are other good candidates for the award, such as Twins pitcher Francisco Liriano, Yankees starter C.C. Sabathia, Rangers Cliff Lee, and the Rays ace David Price. All of these guys pitch for contending teams, but none of them have been as effective as Felix this season.

Price is the closest to Felix in ERA, but he is still more than half a run back at 3.01, while Sabathia is the closest in innings pitched with 194.2, but he is still ten innings behind the King.

Liriano has 171 strikeouts this season, the closest of the other four contenders, but he is also still 21 Ks behind Hernandez.

Lee is the only one who is better than Felix in any major category besides wins and that is in WHIP. Lee has a very impressive WHIP of 1.00 on the season, due entirely to his remarkable control this season. Lee has thrown 179.2 innings this season and walked only 12 batters.

The 6’3″ lefthander was the Mariners best pitcher while he was on the team, better than even Felix, but the Cy Young race is a marathon and not a sprint.

Felix has been nearly untouchable since Lee was traded, while Lee has struggled to replicate the success he enjoyed in Seattle earlier in the season.

Felix has the numbers to prove that he is the American League’s best pitcher this season, and if he continues to pitch the way he has as of late he will end the season very close to Greinke’s 16 game win total from a season ago.

Wins are the only area that Hernandez is lacking when it comes to winning the award, but if the voters truly vote for the best pitcher, than King Felix has to be the choice.

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