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It’s no secret: The Seattle Mariners regained relevance last season due in large part to their starting rotation.

As general manager Jack Zduriencik puts the finishing touches on 2015’s roster, however, that may not hold so true as the M’s make their first playoff push since the early 2000s.

Last year’s rotation was a veteran-laden group of pitchers, complemented by rookie surprise Roenis Elias and a revolving door that was the No. 5 spot. There’s more unknown about the 2015 group, but there’s far more potential, too.

That comes when you’re expected to run out three pitchers with a year or less of major league experience on their resumes. Let’s take a look at the group of six pitchers battling for the five rotation spots.

All stats via FanGraphs and projections by Steamer.

*Steamer projects 48.0 IP for Walker, resulting in lower projected WAR.

One thing the Mariners have going for them is the top of their rotation. They possess a perennial Cy Young candidate and one of the most effective No. 2s in baseball and certainly the American League West. However, just one pitcher in the projected rotation threw 200 innings last season.

The Atlanta Braves teams of the mid-1990s set the standard for the modern major league rotation: Combine for at least 1,000 innings from the starters. Excluding Walker, this group combined for just 830.2 last season—that’s a big jump to make for young pitchers.

Felix Hernandez is a relatively known commodity. Barring injury, the King will throw more than 200 innings of exceptional baseball. The rest, however, are more mysterious. Yes, even Hisashi Iwakuma.

In his five September starts last season, Iwakuma allowed 21 runs (all earned) in 23.2 innings. He averaged fewer than five innings per start.

At 33 years old, Iwakuma is exiting his prime years and entering the back end of his career. In 2013, his second MLB season, he threw a career-high 219.2 innings—don’t expect those kinds of numbers again. Iwakuma could hit 200, but he only did so twice—201.2 and 201.0—in his 10-year Nippon Professional Baseball career.

That’s not to cool anyone’s jets on the Mariners’ chances in 2015. By all means, they are the favorites in the AL West. And they have the luxury of starting pitching depth, which could alleviate the need for their young starters to drastically increase their innings.

It’s essentially the same group as last season, except with J.A. Happ replacing Chris Young. Regardless of your thoughts on the Michael Saunders-Happ trade (here are Lookout Landing’s Matt Ellis’), it provided the M’s a more projectable middle-of-the-rotation starter. 

Young was a huge surprise last season, but that sparkling 3.65 ERA can’t be expected to be maintained for another season, especially not with a 5.02 FIP. Young remains unsigned on the free-agent market.

It doesn’t sound like Happ will need to compete for his rotation spot.

“We didn’t acquire J.A. Happ to pitch in the bullpen,” manager Lloyd McClendon told reporters at the winter meetings. “We gave up an everyday player for a starting pitcher. We expect him to be in the rotation.”

A spring training battle is unavoidable, though. Barring injury, there are six starters for five spots. There’s another name in the mix, too: Erasmo Ramirez.

The 24-year-old right-hander has had stints with the big league club every season since 2010. Each one has been progressively worse, though—not what you want to see from a young pitcher. Those results have resulted in Ramirez having exercised all of his options. 

This forces the Mariners’ hand a bit. Based on previous results, he shouldn’t be in the competition for the rotation. But he’s also still a young pitcher, who has had limited major league success—usually a commodity organizations don’t want to give up.

But in order to keep him and not on the big club, he’ll have to pass through waivers.

Ramirez would likely be claimed, so if the Mariners don’t want to lose him, they could either keep him as a long reliever and spot starter or their No. 5 starter.

Although the decision seems trivial on the surface—keep or cut a mediocre MLB pitcher—it will result in a domino effect.

If Ramirez makes the roster, that’s one of 25 spots, and at most, one of 13 pitchers’ spots. It means whoever of that aforementioned group of six doesn’t make the rotation will almost certainly start the season at Triple-A Tacoma.

The rotation is similar to the team, as a whole. It’s safe to be excited—you should—but do so with cautious optimism. Personnel-wise, this is an upgraded group. However, it may not outperform last year’s because, well, last year’s significantly outperformed its talent level.

With so many variables in the rotation and significant upgrades offensively, the Mariners, for the first time in about a decade, could find themselves relying on their bats rather than their arms.

Evan Webeck is a junior at Arizona State University, studying journalism at the Walter Cronkite School. He’s interned at Sports Illustrated and covered ASU football. Follow him on Twitter or email him at ewebeck@asu.edu.

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With the additions of Nelson Cruz, Justin Ruggiano and Seth Smith, the 2015 Seattle Mariners roster is nearly complete.

Seattle did a nice job of addressing its major needs while only adding payroll and trading marginal prospects. At the very least, this team looks ready to contend for a playoff spot.

With a few minor tweaks, the Mariners can contend for even more. Any remaining roster battles will be settled in spring training, but Seattle has a few things to accomplish before pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 20.

Sign a left-handed reliever

Lloyd McClendon did a nice job of managing Seattle’s bullpen last season by avoiding relying too much on matchups and defined roles. Still, the Mariners would like to add another left-handed specialist before the spring, as Charlie Furbush is currently the only returning lefty reliever.

Rule 5 selection David Rollins and waiver-wire addition Edgar Olmos are likely the next left-handers in line. Relievers can be volatile from year to year, so going with one of the young, inexpensive options is not a bad idea.

Even so, Seattle’s best move right now might be re-signing Joe Beimel. Bob Dutton of The Tacoma News Tribune reported last month that the Mariners were interested in bringing back the veteran after he posted a 2.20 ERA (4.18 FIP) in 45 innings.

Beimel seems unlikely to pitch at quite the same level at 37 years old, but he’ll be cheap and it would be nice to have another lefty with some major league experience. If Beimel struggles, the Mariners would have Olmos or Rollins waiting in Triple-A.

Look for depth in the outfield and at first base

Seattle’s starting lineup appears to be set for 2015 after trading for Smith last week. What the Mariners need now is some bench depth.

Two areas, in particular, stand out as weak in terms of depth: the outfield and first base. The Mariners have a capable starting outfield, but it’s dependent on Dustin Ackley continuing his 2014 second-half surge and Austin Jackson successfully bouncing back from his poor performance after the trade deadline.

First base is even more of a concern. While Logan Morrison earned the starting job by posting a 127 wRC+ in the second half last year, he’s been inconsistent and injury-prone throughout his career.

If Morrison goes down for an extended period of time, the Mariners would likely have to turn to Jesus Montero or hope prospects D.J. Peterson and Patrick Kivlehan develop quickly. It seems likely that the Mariners will need 30-plus games from another first baseman, and the current replacement options are not appealing.

An ideal addition would be a right-handed first baseman who could be stashed in Triple-A at the beginning of the season if necessary. Allen Craig is also still out there as a potentially interesting trade option.

Although Craig’s poor 2014 season and foot problems are very concerning, he’s a good buy-low candidate who won’t cost much beyond some added payroll. Craig could shield Morrison from left-handers and fill in as an outfielder in an emergency.

Of course, the Mariners don’t need Craig badly enough where they should give up anyone of much value to acquire him. Erasmo Ramirez could be used as part of a package to acquire some depth, as he is out of minor league options and figures to be shopped around before the season.

Figure out the shortstop situation

The Mariners don’t necessarily need to firmly commit to either Brad Miller or Chris Taylor before the season starts. Both can exist on the 25-man roster, and Seattle may choose to platoon the two.

Miller should have the upper hand for now, as he has much more power potential. Still, Taylor’s defense and baserunning make him a valuable player, even if he is just a singles hitter.

Even if they don’t officially name a starter, the Mariners need to have some idea for a plan at shortstop so they can properly manage their bench going into spring training.

If Miller indeed gets the nod, would the Mariners be willing to use a 25-man roster spot on a player who can only play shortstop with a thin bench? Dutton indicates Seattle may send Taylor back to Triple-A if that were the case.

Miller needs to get as many reps in the outfield as possible if the Mariners decide to platoon the position or start Taylor. Miller could add more value to the bench as the fifth outfielder than Stefen Romero or James Jones.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

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Taken in isolation, the trade that landed Seth Smith on the Seattle Mariners won’t rock the baseball world.

Taken in the context of Seattle’s offseason outfield overhaul, however, it could shift the balance of power in the American League West.

The swap, per ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, will bring Smith to the Mariners and send 24-year-old right-hander Brandon Maurer to the San Diego Padres. 

The trade makes sense for San Diego, which had a glut of outfielders after acquiring Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and Justin Upton in separate deals. 

But it also benefits Seattle, which scored the fourth-fewest runs in the American League last year. “Our No. 1 goal this offseason was to improve our offense,” general manager Jack Zduriencik told MLB.com‘s Greg Johns. 

And that’s exactly what they’ve done.

Smith figures to platoon with Justin Ruggiano, acquired by the M’s in a Dec. 17 trade with the Chicago Cubs.

The left-handed Smith owns an anemic .205/.291/.314 slash line against southpaws but has tagged righties to the tune of .277/.358/.481.

Ruggiano’s splits aren’t as extreme, but he has fared better against lefties over his career. 

Joining them in the outfield will be Austin Jackson, who came over from the Detroit Tigers as part of the David Price deadline deal last season. Jackson hit an unimpressive .229 in 54 games with the Mariners but posted a .256/.308/.347 slash line overall with 20 stolen bases.

Then there’s Nelson Cruz, who should see significant time at designated hitter but can also play the outfield. Cruz signed a four-year, $57 million deal with the Mariners in early December and was the only player in baseball to crack 40 home runs last season while driving in 108.

The soon-to-be 35-year-old comes with warts—most notably his PED past—but he’ll provide thump in the middle of the order and needed protection for Robinson Cano.

Even with its subpar offense, Seattle finished with an 87-75 record in 2014 and stayed in the playoff picture until the season’s final day. Would these new additions, paired with the Mariners’ superlative pitching led by King Felix Hernandez, have been enough to get them over the hump?

Larry Stone of The Seattle Times thinks so, writing after the Cruz signing, “It’s not hard to imagine how the addition of a hitter like Cruz to stick between Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager could have made up the one-game deficit that kept the Mariners out of the playoffs.” 

Speaking of Seager, Seattle inked him to a seven-year, $100 million pact this winter, locking up the All-Star third baseman and gritty fan favorite for the long haul.

Add it all up, and surely M’s fans are imagining big things. Like, say, Seattle stepping into the role of division favorite?

The Los Angeles Angels ran away with the AL West last year and remain dangerous. But the Oakland A’s, who narrowly edged Seattle for the second wild-card spot, are in full-on fire-sale mode, while the injury-bit Texas Rangers and young, small-market Astros figure to tussle at the bottom of the pack.

It’s been 13 seasons and counting since the Mariners last played a postseason game, and during that span they’ve endured seven last-place finishes. So a return to relevance would be a ray of sunshine in the soggy Pacific Northwest. 

Maybe they’d even compete for attention with the Super Bowl champion Seahawks. 

Count manager Lloyd McClendon among the believers. “I told you guys when I took the job this was a golden era for the Seattle Mariners, and they haven’t let me down,” McClendon said after last season, per The Seattle Times‘ Jerry Brewer. “And we’re only going to get better.”

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

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2014 was an exciting year for a suddenly revitalized Seattle Mariners team.

Robinson Cano was brilliant in his first season in Seattle, and Felix Hernandez just missed out on a Cy Young award, leading the Mariners to within one game of a playoff spot after the franchise looked lost for the previous four years.

In 2015, things should be even more exciting. The Mariners are poised to make the postseason for the first time since 2001 and even look like a World Series contender on paper.

The pieces are in place for the Mariners to be an excellent team in 2015, but first they must adhere to some New Year’s resolutions.

Add some depth

The Mariners rounded out their 2015 starting lineup on Tuesday, acquiring Seth Smith in exchange for Brandon Maurer, per Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. 

However, if one or more starters get injured—which is almost certain to happen—the Mariners would be in trouble from a depth standpoint.

Smith will be used in the corner spots against righties, and Justin Ruggiano can play all three outfield positions if needed. Still, Seattle could use another outfielder, as they don’t want to be playing Nelson Cruz extensively in the field or giving Stefen Romero regular at-bats should someone go down.

Logan Morrison has won the first-base job, but he has never played more than 123 games in a season. Unless Morrison suddenly sheds his injury-prone label, the Mariners could be looking at a lot of Jesus Montero or Ji-Man Choi.

The best depth addition for the Mariners would be someone who can play the corner outfield and fill in at first base. Ben Zobrist fits in well with the roster and appears to be available after the Tampa Bay Rays agreed to a deal with Asdrubal Cabrera on Tuesday, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

However, just about every team in the majors could use Zobrist‘s versatility, so he is going to cost some talent. The Mariners might be better off targeting inexpensive trade candidates (like Ruggiano) or adding a free agent like Emilio Bonifacio for next to nothing.

A team in contention for a division—or even pennant—shouldn’t be relying on Willie Bloomquist, Romero and James Jones as it’s primary depth pieces. Seattle’s front office has done an excellent job of assembling a capable starting lineup, but it needs to apply some finishing touches before opening day.

Work on converting Brad Miller into an outfielder

One of the best in-house outfield options is converting Miller to the outfield. Miller is the type of athlete who could be successful in at least a corner spot and could fill a need on Seattle’s roster in a Zobrist-like type of role.

With Smith around, Miller won’t necessarily be needed as part of a right-field platoon. Still, he can help with the depth problems listed above and would allow the Mariners to keep both Chris Taylor and Miller in the lineup regularly, should they both play well.

It’s hard to predict how any player will respond to a position change, but the Mariners have had some success in the past transitioning infielders to the outfield. Outfield coach Andy Van Slyke deserves plenty of credit for helping Dustin Ackley convert into a successful left fielder, and he should get a chance to do the same with Miller.

Even it doesn’t pan out, there’s no harm in getting Miller some outfield reps during spring training.

Avoid selling the farm

General manager Jack Zduriencik has done a nice job of building a contender without giving up much top-tier young talent. Trading prospects could become even more tempting at the 2015 deadline depending on the situation the Mariners are in.

Apart from a questionable Michael Saunders trade, Zduriencik‘s deals dating back to last offseason have all been sound. The Mariners have been able to acquire players who filled needs while only giving up marginal prospects such as Abraham Almonte, Matt Brazis and Carter Capps.

The only real big name to be traded was Nick Franklin, but he was blocked in Seattle and returned a player with more than one year of team control.

Zduriencik must continue that for the rest of the offseason and the trade deadline. Young talent like Taijuan Walker and D.J. Peterson should not be leaving Seattle, particularly for rental players, even if the Mariners have a “win now” focus.

The Mariners have assembled a roster that can compete both now and in the future. They need to keep it that way in 2015.

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The list of potential fits to fill the Seattle Mariners‘ hole in right field seems to be shrinking by the day.

Melky Cabrera, likely Seattle’s top target, agreed to a three-year deal with the Chicago White Sox on Sunday, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score.

In addition, Alex Rios signed with the Kansas City Royals on Monday, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, which takes one more target off the board.

That leaves a very thin remaining free-agent market for outfielders. General manager Jack Zduriencik said that Seattle may have to “get creative” to address the team’s last weakness, via Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN.

The Mariners could elect to stay in-house or even try to convert Brad Miller into an outfielder. They also may swing an unexpected trade, with names like Seth Smith and Gerardo Parra popping up recently as possible fits, per Paul Casella of MLB.com. 

Even with the best outfielders already signed, a couple of free agents and players known to be available for trade could be options for the Mariners in right field.

Nori Aoki

With Cabrera gone, Aoki is probably the best free-agent outfielder left. The Mariners would prefer a right-handed hitter, but Aoki has a reverse platoon split for his career and would be a good fit to bat second in Seattle’s lineup.

Aoki is coming off a .285/.349/.360 season and has posted 6.2 WAR in his three-year major league career. He makes excellent contact and consistently posts strong OBP numbers without striking out much.

That’s nothing spectacular, but it’s far better than anything on Seattle’s current roster. If the Mariners landed Aoki, it would be hard to identify a major weakness on the team heading into 2015.

Aoki‘s cost might be inflated due to the thin remaining free-agent class—and he is a so-so defensive player. Still, Aoki would be a serviceable option during Seattle’s current window of competition.

Colby Rasmus

Rasmus is a very talented player who hasn’t risen into stardom due to inconsistency and injuries. When Rasmus has put it all together, the results have been excellent—including a 4.8 WAR season in 2013 with the Toronto Blue Jays.

But Rasmus has struggled more often than he has succeed in his career. He is coming off a .225/.287.448 campaign and has missed 102 games over the last two years.

Defensive metrics have not been kind to Rasmus in his career, and he has an awful platoon split against righties. A move to right field would boost his defensive value, but he doesn’t really fit with Seattle otherwise.

Whichever team signs Rasmus will be getting an intriguing addition with upside—and he’s not going to cost much. For a contending team like the Mariners that needs a reliable everyday player, he should be a last-resort option.

Justin Upton

After trading Jason Heyward earlier in the offseason, it became clear that the Atlanta Braves would be willing to move Upton in the last year of his contract. The Mariners would make sense as a potential landing spot.

Upton would certainly improve the team for 2015 and solidify Seattle’s chances at World Series contention. While Upton has never come close to matching his 6.1 WAR campaign in 2011, he is coming off his best season since and owns a 121 wRC+ for his career.

The problem is the cost to land Upton, as the Braves want a bigger return than they got for Heyward, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Atlanta is probably looking for either Taijuan Walker or James Paxton in a potential Upton deal.

Zduriencik is not going to trade five years of Paxton or six of Walker for one year of Upton. There’s a price where Upton makes sense, but the Braves would have to reduce the asking cost first.

Shane Victorino / Allen Craig

The Boston Red Sox did some work to free up a logjam by trading Yoenis Cespedes to the Detroit Tigers last week, per CJ Nitkowski of Fox Sports 1.

There are still too many outfielders on Boston’s roster, so either Victorino or Craig could be on the way out before the season.

As a one-year rental, Victorino shouldn’t cost anything more than a reliever, and he put up a 5.6 WAR season as recently as 2013. There’s obviously a concern about a 34-year-old who played just 30 games last season due to a back injury, but Victorino is likely still a more reliable option than Rasmus.

Craig is coming off a miserable -1.4 WAR season, so he won’t warrant a large return. He also has three years of team control and posted no worse than a 134 wRC+ with the St. Louis Cardinals between 2011 and 2013.

Both players have some upside and both could backfire in a major way. The Mariners would have to add a reliable fourth outfielder as insurance, but it might be worth it to send over a fringy prospect or a reliever like Yoervis Medina with their current situation.

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Not every move is pulled off, not every need filled at the MLB Winter Meetings.

For as much hype as the gathering produces, and rightfully so this year, there are teams that go in with plenty of expectations but simply leave with the same roster with which they arrived. It leaves fans disappointed that their guys were not part of the hoopla, but it does not mean said team is done maneuvering.

The Seattle Mariners are such a team.

“I don’t feel hurried or rushed here,” general manager Jack Zduriencik told Bob Dutton of the Tacoma New Tribune on Thursday before leaving the meetings. “You shouldn’t view this as ‘If you don’t come away with your club in place on Dec. 12, wow, it’s not going to work.’ That isn’t the case.”

Not when there is now serious interest in outfielder Melky Cabrera, a guy who makes a whole lot of sense for the Mariners. The team needs a right-handed hitter, preferably one who can play right field. Cabrera, a switch-hitter, can productively fulfill both desires. Over his last four seasons, Cabrera has hit .309/.351/.458 with a .809 OPS and 124 OPS-plus. His only down season came in an injury-plagued 2013 with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Cabrera is said to be asking for a five-year deal. A report from ESPN Deportes’ Enrique Rojas has the Mariners offering three. Finally, it appears that if the Mariners really want to close the deal, they could offer a fourth year to get it done, according to Rojas and other reports.

Speculation has the Mariners somewhere in the $40-42 million range on a three-year deal, which could mean a higher average annual value than the $60 million for five years that Cabrera reportedly wants. So it would make sense for Cabrera to jump at a four-year contract at around $50 million.

There is some risk in waiting this thing out, though. As the December days drip off, teams with similar needs as Seattle can get desperate and hop into the fray cannonball-style. At least two other teams—the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles—need an outfield bat and are eyeing Cabrera to fill the void. While neither team is willing to meet the years/price right this instant, passing time and no better options could change minds.

royals still hoping for melky to fill OF hole. if not, aoki, rasmus, rios on radar.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 11, 2014

If Mariners aren’t going 4 yrs on Melky Cabrera, the #Orioles would consider him on a 2-3 year deal, according to source. Ain’t going 4 tho.

— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) December 12, 2014

While those clubs are currently hesitant on Cabrera’s wants, he does make as much sense for them as he does for the Mariners. The Royals are looking for a right fielder and had an unimpressive offense last season, and they are in danger of being a worse team than they were last season when they made it to the World Series. The Orioles lost some pop when Nelson Cruz went to Seattle and Nick Markakis jetted for Atlanta and have a hole in their outfield.

The Royals have financial constraints, but the Orioles can spend and have some tradable pieces, as do the Mariners. That is why both teams were linked to former Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp and Braves left fielder Justin Upton.

It made some sense for the Mariners to be interested in Kemp, and maybe they should have stayed in talks with the Dodgers. After all, a package centered around catcher Yasmani Grandal is much less of a return for Kemp than anyone expected.

Upton makes less sense since the Braves are said to be asking for a similar bounty as the Dodgers asked Seattle for Kemp. Plus, the M’s would be guaranteed only one year of Upton, who is most likely going to test free agency after the 2015 season.

If the Mariners are looking for a guy who can do more than simply track a fly ball, then Cabrera is the best option on the market. He would also fit nicely into their clubhouse being friends with Robinson Cano and Cruz, and Cano has already bent his ear about heading up to the Pacific Northwest to join a team on the rise.

Cano said he’s spoken briefly to Melky Cabrera about signing with the Mariners. And told him how much he and Cruz could help the team

— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) December 12, 2014

Seeing as how the Mariners have already gone in on Felix Hernandez, Cano and Kyle Seager, plus giving 34-year-old designated hitter Cruz $57 million over four years, going to a fourth year for the 31-year-old Cabrera is not a stretch. His bat has also played in a cavernous ballpark in the past when he hit .346/.390/.516 with a .906 OPS for the San Francisco Giants in 2012—yes, he was popped for a positive PED test, but he was still quite productive the year before and last season as well. Playing in Safeco Field would not be a deterrent for Cabrera.

It is understandable that the Mariners have slow-played this negotiation to this point. Losing Cabrera has not been an imminent danger, and balking at a fifth year is wise.

But the clock is ticking and suitors are lurking, albeit on the fringes. The Mariners are clearly serious about contending in the American League West next season, and it looks like they have the pieces to do so. Jumping a little farther to secure Cabrera should be their play, and it should come soon.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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The MLB trade market figures to heat up when the annual winter meetings begin on Sunday in San Diego.

After two offseasons worth of rumors, the Seattle Mariners finally agreed to a four-year deal with Nelson Cruz worth $58 million on Monday, as reported by Bob Dutton of The (Tacoma) News Tribune. That clearly changes their strategy at the winter meetings, but the Mariners likely aren’t done yet.

Dutton adds that Seattle’s next priority will be to add a right fielder. The Mariners apparently believe Michael Saunders is not the answer, making him expendable and opening up a hole in the outfield.

Melky Cabrera and Torii Hunter are the best two free-agent fits remaining. However, that would force the Mariners to play one of them or Cruz on defense, which is far from ideal.

Instead, the Mariners may have to make a trade to get outfield help, which could very well happen at the upcoming meetings. But the deals general manager Jack Zduriencik avoids making will be just as important as the trades he makes.

Earlier in the offseason, Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported that the Mariners had interest in Yoenis Cespedes and that the Boston Red Sox liked Hisashi Iwakuma, setting up the framework of a potential trade.

However, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times believes a straight one-for-one swap is unlikely and with good reason.

Cespedes may be a little overrated, but he is still a solid player with a .263/.316/.464 career line. He was worth 3.4 WAR a year ago and would presumably be somewhat of an upgrade over Dustin Ackley in left field.

Iwakuma put up 3.2 WAR last season, and there would be a substantial drop-off to whoever would replace him. Seattle would just be moving holes around with such a trade.

Justin Upton and Matt Kemp are potentially available, but the need is less after the Cruz addition. The Mariners are now going to be hesitant to trade six years of Taijuan Walker for one year of Upton or the $107 million remaining on Kemp’s contract.

Seattle’s roster could likely compete for a playoff spot as it stands. Still, there’s a sense of urgency to win now, and the Mariners might look to make a couple other moves to upgrade the outfield or add depth to the starting rotation.

Shop a relief pitcher

One of Seattle’s main strengths in 2014 was the bullpen, which led the majors with a 2.59 ERA. The Mariners don’t want to break that up too much, but relievers can be volatile year to year, and Seattle is deep at the position.

Fernando Rodney isn’t likely to be traded while the club is contending. Still, someone at peak value like Brandon Maurer or Tom Wilhelmsen could be a piece in a potential deal.

Seattle won’t get a big name at the cost of just a relief pitcher alone. But at the very least, the Mariners could grab a fourth outfielder who could platoon or fill in for Saunders should he be traded or miss time with injury.

Players like Justin Ruggiano and Marlon Byrd are among possible candidates. If Zduriencik can find a deal in the same vein as the Carter Capps for Logan Morrison trade of last winter, he should pull the trigger.

See what Chris Taylor or Brad Miller could bring back

It’s possible for Miller and Taylor to coexist on Seattle’s roster in 2015. Still, it would be better to get some value back rather than have one of them sit on the bench or in Triple-A.

Choosing between Taylor and Miller won’t be easy, however. 

Miller has posted roughly league-average numbers at the plate through the first 200 games of his career despite a horrible slump early last season and will likely improve.

Taylor hasn’t shown an ability to hit for any power whatsoever but brings value defensively and on the bases.

If the Mariners firmly decide on a starter, the backup could return a starting pitcher or outfield help. A package of a shortstop and a reliever lines up with the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ needs, but they would likely want more in exchange for Kemp unless the Mariners pick up a significant chunk of salary.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Seattle Mariners have reportedly signed Nelson Cruz. Yancen Pujols of the Dominican newspaper El Caribe reported the news, which was confirmed by ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.

The former Rangers slugger will make his return to the American League West after a one-year hiatus in Baltimore, where he mashed 40 home runs and drove in 108 runs.

Cruz gives the Mariners a three-headed monster in the middle of the order that also features Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. For manager Lloyd McClendon, it’s a poor man’s version of the trio (Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez) he coached in Detroit.

While not as fearsome as Detroit’s grouping, Seattle’s trio finally gives the M’s the complete set of sluggers they have been searching for.

The middle of the Mariners lineup is complete, but the batting order is far from it.

In terms of OPS, Seattle received below-average production from every position except second and third base—positions where Seager and Cano receive the lion’s share of at-bats. These low numbers should change in 2015.

First base and center field will be greatly improved with Logan Morrison and Austin Jackson, respectively, playing full seasons, while Cruz will solidify the designated hitter position. In addition, catcher and shortstop should see continued improvements from youngsters Mike Zunino and Chris Taylor.

That leaves the corner outfield spots as the only positions susceptible to change.

Seattle’s right fielders (namely Michael Saunders, Endy Chavez and Stefen Romero) ranked 17th in OPS in the league. Dustin Ackley received the majority of the at-bats in left field. Ackley and the Mariners’ other left fielders ranked 21st in OPS.  

It’s entirely possible that none of the previously mentioned four hitters will be in the Opening Day lineup in 2015.

According to Crasnick, the Mariners have reportedly shopped Saunders. In addition, Chavez is 36, and Romero hit .192 in 177 plate appearances.

At 26 years old, Ackley hasn’t lived up to the potential that made him the second overall pick. That, combined with Ackley’s ability to play multiple positions, makes him better suited as a utility player.

An outfielder like Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton would be an outstanding addition. But at this point, with a middle-of-the-order trio in place, Cespedes or Upton would be a costly luxury that would likely mean the loss of Taijuan Walker or James Paxton.

Seattle should be going after complementary bats in the mold of Jackson or Morrison—players who can fill out the top of the lineup card and, more importantly, the sixth through ninth spots in the order.

Cano, Cruz and Seager are fantastic, but someone has to hit between them and Zunino (who’ll likely hit toward the bottom of the lineup).

Players like Marlon Byrd, Alex Rios, Torii Hunter and Alejandro De Aza are all attainable, as is old friend Ichiro Suzuki. Melky Cabrera is another name to watch.

Cabrera finished 2014 with an .808 OPS, good for 33rd in all of baseball. His OPS was higher than potential teammate Seager, as well as established stars like Albert Pujols, Josh Donaldson, Adam Jones and Ryan Braun.

Hunter—who is looking at Seattle along with a handful of other teams, according to Mark Whicker of OCRegister.com—wasn’t far behind Cabrera with a .765 OPS. Byrd posted a .757 OPS.  

The moral of the story here is that there are options out there for the M’s.

Signing Cruz is a start, but the Mariners need more hitters to fill out the lineup. Whether they accomplish the feat by trade (Byrd or potentially De Aza) or free agency (Hunter, Cabrera, et al.), the team will have plenty of attractive options.

Once this happens, the M’s offense will no longer be second fiddle to the team’s outstanding pitching. Once this happens, the M’s will finally experience October baseball.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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General manager Jack Zduriencik and the Seattle Mariners aren’t bashful. We’ll give ’em that.

For the second winter in a row, the M’s have reportedly made a major splash in free agency. And for the second winter in a row, they’ve done so by doling out a contract that presents major risk and potentially horrid value at the back half.

Last year, it was a 10-year deal to Robinson Cano, who will make $24 million when he’s 40 years old. Now, it’s reportedly a four-year contract worth $57 million to 34-year-old Nelson Cruz.

Although the deal isn’t yet official, El Caribe, a Dominican Republic newspaper, originally reported the news, and it has been confirmed by several other sources, including Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi:

Not surprisingly, opinions of Seattle’s newest acquisition are about as contrasting as it gets.

Chris Carlin of SNY.tv applauded the deal, while FanGraphs‘ David Cameron lambasted it:

Cameron essentially pointed toward the length of the contract, arguing that Cruz isn’t “expected to produce any value in his age-37 season.” That means he’ll likely have to justify the $57 million in a span of three—or potentially two—years. For a player who is expected to spend most of his time at DH, that’s a decidedly difficult task.

Nevertheless, risky deal or not, the M’s couldn’t afford to sit back and wait. Already boasting a fantastic pitching staff (Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, Roenis Elias, Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen) and a stable of talented lefty hitters (Cano, Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley), Seattle is right on the cusp of contention.

Taking the next step requires adding a right-handed power hitter.

Last year, the Mariners had three left-handed hitters with at least 300 plate appearances and a .400 slugging percentage, while Ackley (542 PA, .398 SLG) and Michael Saunders (263 PA, .450 SLG) were both close.

The amount of right-handed hitters to hit those plateaus? One—Mike Zunino, who finished with a .199 batting average.

Many are expecting a regression from Cruz, who hit 40 home runs with the Baltimore Orioles after averaging 27 per season in the previous five years with the Texas Rangers. Even if he does fall back to earth, though, he’s a career .289/.364/.522 hitter against lefties (.261/.316/.493 against righties), representing an obvious upgrade for the M’s.

Moreover, as ESPN Stats & Info illustrated, he’ll do so at the team’s worst position:

Cruz presents risk, sure. But also, his name is not Kendrys Morales or Corey Hart, so he has that going for him.

The Mariners, in an attempt to stop wasting the prime seasons of Hernandez and Cano, are in obvious win-now mode, and inserting Cruz into the middle of the lineup immediately increases their chances of ending a 13-year playoff drought.

Should that happen, it may not matter what he does—or what his paychecks say—in 2017 or ’18.

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The Seattle Mariners are betting big that Nelson Cruz, whose 40 home runs led all of Major League Baseball in 2014, can help get them to the playoffs for the first time in a long time. Like, 13 years long.

The Mariners went 87-75 last year—their first winning season since 2009—and missed out on the postseason by a single, solitary game. On the final day, they actually had a chance at a Game 163 if the Oakland Athletics had lost.

Instead, the A’s won to advance to the Wild Card Game, while the M’s still haven’t played October baseball since 2001.

That’s a long, long time to wait, which is why Seattle reportedly has spent a lot of money over a lot of years—$57 million over four, to be exact, according to Yancen Pujols of Dominican newspaper El Caribe—to bring aboard Cruz, thus filling the club’s primary need for a power hitter from the right side.

ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick confirmed later Monday that Cruz and Seattle have an agreement in place, pending a physical.

That’s the big-money, multi-year contract Cruz was seeking this time a year ago, when his market was undercut by being attached to draft-pick compensation and having been suspended 50 games at the end of the 2013 season as part of the Biogenesis investigation.

Cruz wound up having to wait until late February—after pitchers and catchers had reported—to sign with the Baltimore Orioles, settling for a mere $8 million over one season.

It might seem odd that Cruz would see his value shoot up so much in the span of nine months, but two factors are at play.

One, the 34-year-old put together his most productive season, hitting .271/.333/.525 with 40 homers and 108 RBI, both career highs.

And two, Seattle had a major need for a big right-handed bat to team with perennial MVP candidate Robinson Cano and underrated new $100 million man Kyle Seager, both of whom hit in the middle of the Mariners’ lineup and swing from the left side.

After all, in their desperation to fill that void and push toward the playoffs, the Mariners had been mentioned as suitors for everyone from no-longer free agent Hanley Ramirez, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, to trade targets Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Matt Kemp, according to CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman.

The fact that Seattle didn’t have to trade any of its pitchers, including veteran Hisashi Iwakuma or top young arms righty Taijuan Walker or lefty James Paxton, allows the team to keep its dominant staff intact, with Cy Young runner-up Felix Hernandez leading the way.

That’s only going to help the M’s in their quest to end this 13-year postseason drought.

Seattle’s team ERA last season was 3.17, ranking second-best in baseball, behind only the Washington Nationals (3.03).

Offense, on the other hand, has long been a problem. The Mariners scored 634 runs in 2014, the 12th-lowest total in the sport. That was the club’s highest finish since it placed 12th back in 2007.

In the six years in between, Seattle ranked no higher than 22nd in runs and had a bottom-five total in five seasons.

One of Seattle’s biggest problem spots in 2014, in particular, was designated hitter, a position that Cruz fills, as Mike Axisa of CBS Sports points out:

Of course, that doesn’t mean Cruz comes without warts.

As Axisa alluded to, he is no longer a reasonable option to play defense, especially at his advancing age and with his injury history.

Then there’s the concern over Cruz’s drop-off in the second half last year. Following a first half in which he hit .287/.353/.570 with 28 homers in 93 games, Cruz batted just .249/.306/.463 with 12 home runs in 66 contests after the break.

The slugger also hasn’t fared all that well at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, which is notoriously tough on right-handed hitters, per Stat Corner. In 204 career plate appearances at his new home field, Cruz owns a .234/.309/.440 line with nine home runs.

The Mariners also forfeit their first-round selection in June by virtue of inking Cruz, who rejected the $15.3 million qualifying offer from the Orioles last month.

Even still, this is a move Seattle almost had to make given all that’s at stake for this franchise in the wake of Cano’s $240 million contract, Seager’s extension and Hernandez being in the prime of his career.

The Mariners and Cruz were the right fit all along, as Paul Casella writes for Sports on Earth: “Cruz is coming off hitting a career-best and major league-leading 40 home runs this past season. The Mariners, meanwhile, hit fewer home runs against left-handed pitchers than any team in the [AL].”

And as competitive as the AL West was in 2014, it also appears to be a division in flux this winter, which is a good thing for Seattle.

The Los Angeles Angels finished with the best record in baseball (98-64), and their offense remains dangerous, but the pitching staff is much less so. Young righty Garrett Richards is still recovering from knee surgery, and southpaw Tyler Skaggs will miss all of 2015 after Tommy John surgery.

The Athletics have had an odd offseason so far, signing Billy Butler but then trading away Josh Donaldson, their best player, on Friday. There’s also speculation that right-hander Jeff Samardzija could be on his way out too, according to Heyman.

The Texas Rangers, meanwhile, seem to be stuck in neutral this winter after making major moves, like trading for Prince Fielder and signing Shin-Soo Choo, last offseason. Thanks to injuries to those two and many others, they finished with the third-worst record in baseball at 67-95.

The Houston Astros, coming off a fourth consecutive 90-plus-loss campaign, aren’t sniffing the playoffs any time soon.

A four-year pact worth nearly $60 million for a player like Cruz, who will turn 35 on July 1, has a performance-enhancing-drug suspension in his recent past and also has significant limitations—both defensively and health-wise—is certainly a risk.

Players with profiles similar to Cruz do tend to go south quickly, so the M’s are hoping that they’ll get one or two healthy, productive years out of this contract before it takes a turn for the worse.

The good news is if Cruz can hit anywhere near the level he did in 2014, there’s a good chance this deal will be worth it for Seattle, no matter what happens in the later years.

That’s the power of simply making it back to October for the first time since 2001.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

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