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People didn’t expect Edgar Martinez to earn election into the Hall of Fame today. The fact that he didn’t wasn’t a shock to anyone.

Some eyebrows were raised when his support dropped by a few votes, though.

The arguments for or against his election can be made over and over. We’d be blue in the face and likely see no one from either side sway to the other. We know the numbers, and we know the DH argument.

There’s a bigger problem in the room now, though. One that is likely to plague the election process for the next decade or longer.

Writers are forced to play games.

The members of the BBWAA who have a Hall of Fame vote are limited to 10 selections on their ballot. To exasperate the issue, voters are being faced with more questions about steroids, and the Hall of Fame has given them a vague set of rules to consider when casting their vote.

Some writers who would rather be safe than sorry in the case of Jeff Bagwell. With a loaded ballot this year, perhaps they’d rather spend one of their 10 votes elsewhere while also avoiding the steroid controversy.

Another writer voted for Tino Martinez and BJ Surhoff, but not Roberto Alomar or Bert Blyleven. The latter two were elected today. Surely, that writer doesn’t think Martinez and Surhoff are more deserving than Alomar and Blyleven, right?

Would we be wrong to assume that writer felt confident Alomar and Blyleven would get in, thus deciding to spend those votes elsewhere?

I believe the Hall of Fame has put these writers in an unfair position.

What if these games end up costing a guy his enshrinement? Fans would be angry, but remember that these voters are people, too. They are the ones with the burden to make a decision under these rules.

While I disagree with the stance some of them have to err on the side of caution, it is their right under the current format of the ballot rules.

They then face the dilemma of publishing their votes with reasoning or withholding that information. Either decision would come with backlash from the fans.

This is not court of law. Nor is it a body of congress. Therefore, we can’t expect the voters to abide by rules we’ve come to know in our government. They don’t have to see it as innocent until proven guilty and they don’t have to represent our feelings with their vote.

I don’t feel bad for the pressure put on all of the writers, though.

Dan Graziano of AOL Fanhouse chose not to vote for Jeff Bagwell, because he has suspicions. I could get into why I feel voters should not be playing the role of morality police or directly or indirectly influencing people to form a negative opinion of someone who has not been found guilty of anything.

I’m more concerned, though, with how the Hall of Fame may have unintentionally instilled an inflated sense of power into some of these writers.

In his piece a week ago, Graziano had this to say about his right to vote how he sees fit:

“I could withhold a vote because I don’t want people in the Hall of Fame who have blue eyes, or owned cats, or ever played on a Texas team. It’s my vote, and the only standards to which I am beholden are my own.”

The Hall of Fame’s rules are short and vague. Short enough, in fact, that you can see they do not allow a voter to leave a player off because of his eye color or domestic animal of choice. They ask the voters to consider how well the player performed, and how they acted on and off the field while a member of the baseball community.

Would Graziano really vote that way? I’d certainly hope not, but the mere fact that he’d publish a thought like that is concerning. Do either the Hall of Fame or BBWAA care that one of the gatekeepers to this hallowed institution finds that as acceptable, joke or not?

I would think voting for the Hall of Fame is an extreme honor that is taken very seriously. I have no doubt it is to many voters.

Others, though, and the Hall of Fame itself?

Seems like they need to revisit the policies and practices on who is left out in the cold.

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The Seattle Mariners finalized a two-year contract, with a club option for a third, with catcher Miguel Olivo.

Finally.

Nearly a month after the deal was agreed on, pen went to paper and a press release was sent out. I can’t say I remember a deal ever taking this long to finalize.

To make room for Olivo on the 40-man roster, pitcher Anthony Varvaro was designated for assignment. As these things go, the Mariners now have 10 days to release, trade or outright Varvaro to the Minors.

Varvaro is 26. He throws hard, but doesn’t throw strikes exceptionally well. He’s not a huge loss, but for a team that is soft in both the majors and minors, he’s at least worth keeping around for organizational depth.

In other news, one of the names the Mariners had been tied to isn’t coming to town. Chris Capuano, who is coming off injury problems, signed a one-year deal with the Mets.

Having been with the Brewers there were ties to GM Jack Zduriencik, and Safeco Field would have played well to his skill set.

With David Aardsma now needing surgery, making him untradeadble for now, the Mariners’ limited budget room is now even lot tighter. The options to find a back-end starter are getting pretty slim.

I’d expect to see someone like a David Pauley to break camp with the team unless one of the last remaining options, Jeff Francis, is brought in.

You can follow Alex on Twitter @AlexCarson or email him comments, questions or concerns at alexcarson.br@gmail.com

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The AL West was one of the worst divisions in baseball in 2010.

Entering the season, projections were all over. Each team was picked to both win the division or finish in the cellar, depending on which prediction you read.

The shape of each club is a bit easier to tell going into 2011, but there are still several questions for each club and the players signed to them.

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Let me start by saying that, while it’s non-zero, the chances of Felix Hernandez being traded this winter are pretty small.

Felix has stated many times that he loves Seattle. He has a no-trade clause that we know includes the Yankees. We don’t know the other teams, but the team that may be the most willing to give up a huge package is probably out of the running.

Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik has also stated that he has no interest in trading the King. While that may be because he can’t due to the contract and ownership’s wishes, he still said it. This is a front office that traded for Cliff Lee without a soul knowing about it until it was done. They’re tight-lipped, and when they do say something, you can generally take it to the bank.

We also have seen one offer that the Mariners turned down. A couple summers ago, they didn’t feel Adrian Gonzalez, Clay Buchholz and their choice of a few more Red Sox prospects were enough. That would have been a pretty impressive haul, so to turn that down lets you know something.

This is baseball, though. It’s a weird game, and you never know what sort of surprise you’ll see. So here are 10 trade packages that could pique their interest.

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It’s possible that the expectations for Erik Bedard, especially considering what Bill Bavasi sent to Baltimore to get him, added to the perception that he’s a jerk. He’s not a great interview. He gives that little smile when asked a question he doesn’t like. There is a belief that he doesn’t care.

Of course, his inability to stay on the field has added to that. When he does pitch, you see so much potential. There’s a solid pitcher in there and it drives us nuts when starts are pushed back, an entire season is lost and he goes under the knife. Again.

However, it’s entirely possible that Erik Bedard actually has something other than ice water running through his veins.

Signed for 2011 to a non-guaranteed contract for one-year and $1 million, something not too common for a major league veteran, it appears Bedard really meant it when he said he owed something to Seattle. He has, after all, received a nice chunk of change from the Mariners and spent the better part of two years getting rehab on their dime.

While he could have easily gone to another team for a similar deal, perhaps even better, he stayed here and has a contract that might earn him nothing, but also has tons of incentives.

Reports are that Bedard could see as much as $5.6 million from the contract. The bonuses start at 50 innings and eight starts, and go all the way up to 190 innings and 30 starts. Chuck in nearly another half million if he’s an All-Star or wins a Cy Young or Gold Glove. Heck, there’s even a structure in case the team decides he’d be a better fit for the pen. It seems as though Bedard is open to anything, including being compensated fairly if he performs well.

So, what are the two ideal scenarios that could come from this? Let’s examine.

Ideal Scenario Number One—Mariners Contend in the AL West

This is unlikely. Really unlikely. Baseball is a strange game, though. Never have we seen so many players have the worst year of their career and perform as badly as we did with the 2010 squad. So, while not probable, it’s possible as many players have career years in 2011, right?

What if Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda burst onto the scene? What if Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez and Brendan Ryan have significant bounce-back seasons? What if Ichiro defies age again, Miguel Olivo earns that contract and Michael Saunders makes huge strides?

Oh, and what if Erik Bedard stays healthy, pitches 30 games and gives Seattle a strong first three with Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda?

Yeah, and what if the sky turns purple and cows walk up-right? I know, not likely. But unlike the sky and cows transforming over night, there is a non-zero chance of this Mariners squad shocking the AL West. One percent is still better than zero, after all.

According to fangraphs.com‘s WAR, Bedard was worth 5.0 and 5.4 wins above a typical AAA replacement player in 2006 and 2007 respectively. The going rate for a win this off-season is $5 million. If Bedard could even hit, say, 3.5 WAR to account for age and regression that would make him “worth” $17.5 million if he got the going rate.

At that point, $5.6 million if he hit every single bonus would be a huge bargain. The risk is small, and the potential reward is huge.

Ideal Scenario Number Two—Bedard builds trade value

While perhaps the odds of this are as good as Milton Bradley and Eric Wedge being caught skipping down Edgar Martinez Drive together, it’s still possible.

We can also look back to recent history to see what happened with Jarrod Washburn. All it takes is one good half of baseball, and an albatross all of a sudden becomes useful warm bodies. Neither Luke French or Mauricio Robles were blue chip prospects, but both filled holes in a soft upper minors system for the Mariners and add legit options to a major league club.

There is almost no chance Bedard is a Mariner on August 1st if he’s healthy. Contending teams are always looking to add to their rotation, and in Bedard’s case, he’d make a cheap addition to a team that could use a starter, spot starter or legit long man for the dog days of summer.

Other Scenarios

• Cut with no loss.
• Becomes a mop up guy in the pen.
• Spot starts to reduce the innings for Pineda.

Whatever the end result is, the risk is small. Let’s try this one more time, Erik.

Alex Carson is a Seattle Mariners writer and blogger. You can follow him on Twitter @AlexCarson or email him comments, questions or concerns at alexcarson.br@gmail.com

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When the Mariners traded Cliff Lee to Texas last July, the focus was on having Justin Smoak as part of that package.

Unfortunately, much of the talk from that trade has not been the potential of Smoak, but the issues that come with one of he other pieces of that deal.

Josh Lueke.

In 2008, Lueke faced a rape charge that was later reduced to false imprisonment with violence, which to he plead no contest. Neither crime should be taken lightly, obviously. The original charge is the one that the court of public opinion will always charge him with and he’ll face lots of negative press and fan reaction for that.

The Mariners and Rangers had a public spat about how this information was disclosed and what happened after the Mariners fully knew what was going on. Carmen Fusco, pro scouting director, was fired. Jack Zduriencik uncomfortable read from a script as explained the situation to the media. The “Refuse to Abuse” program grew a collective look of befuddlement.

Here’s the real problem in all of this:

Josh Lueke has major league talent.

If this were some minor league fodder, we can probably safely assume the Mariners would have just sent him back or cut him loose. But, because he has a big arm and projects as a late inning strikeout machine, here we are facing an uncomfortable situation.

The Mariners had been quiet on the situation since. When talking about prospects, Lueke was left out. When talking about Arizona Fall League success stories, Lueke was left out.

Then came a piece on the Mariners official website where Jack Zduriencik was quoted as saying “We view Smoak as a middle-of-the-lineup bat and Lueke as a late-inning guy. Both should be with us in 2011.””

Josh Lueke was not left out. Zduriencik has become known as someone who chooses his words wisely. I’ve gone to events to see him speak candidly a couple times. When he’s asked a question, it’s as if you can see the wheels turning before he answers. He’s an intelligent man who knows about perception and how things can take off if that perception isn’t reality.

So, to have Zduriencik change course probably means the Mariners are having serious thoughts about putting Lueke on the active roster at some point in 2011. That might not be opening day and it probably won’t be the home opener either. My guess would be he gets added during a road trip in the first couple months of the season.

Of course, this also could be very careful plotting by Zduriencik. The Seattle community wasn’t willing to hear about the greatness of this guy with such a bad label, especially during a tumultuous season. However, essentially removing Lueke from existence almost certainly diminished any remaining trade value he had. So, did Jack possibly wait for the dust to settle to start slowly reintroducing the thought of Lueke playing in Seattle, while also trying to raise his trade value?

This is a subject that pulls hard at a lot of baseball fans. How do you root for a convicted criminal? Does the fact that the charges were lessened change your mind at all? Do you believe in giving people second chances? Where do you draw the line in wanting your team to have the best chance to win or having the most trade leverage? Why should this man be permitted to be a role model for children?

There are a lot of questions here that I cannot answer. We all have extremely strong opinions on this, especially those of us who have been touched personally by the crime he was originally charged with.

Whether we agree with Lueke’s inclusion on the team or not, there are 59 days until pitchers and catchers report, and the looming issue has started to be addressed.

Discussion on this subject is welcome in the comments section below. Please, though, keep them civil. I’d like to point out that I’ve tried to not show an opinion in this piece, but only lay out the facts.

Alex Carson is a Seattle Mariners writer and blogger. You can follow him on Twitter @AlexCarson or email him comments, questions or concerns at alexcarson.br@gmail.com

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Late Monday night, word came out that not only was there a mystery team in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, but that they had won his services.

The Phillies got back the piece they sorely missed last post-season, and in the process put another 500 pounds of pain on the Yankees off-season.

While they re-signed Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera as expected, the Yankees real top target all along was Cliff Lee. Now that they’ve missed out on him, and rival Boston added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, the Bronx Bombers may be scrambling to get their rotation improved.

You’ve heard Zack Greinke’s name tossed out there, but its believed that he wouldn’t accept a trade to New York, or that new York doesn’t think Greinke can handle the pressure. Both theories produce the same result.

So, aside from Brian Cashman’s public statements of patience, what could be the next plan for the Yankees? Well, one name that surely will be kicked around is 2010 Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners.

However, here are 10 reasons they won’t be able to make that deal happen.

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A year ago, as the story goes, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik had a chat with his counterpart from the Phillies in the airport on his way home from these winter meetings. The result was Cliff Lee coming to Seattle via trade.

It doesn’t appear any splash of that magnitude is in the cards this go around, as the meetings wrap up and the Mariners—while linked to many rumors—leave as minor players. For the second consecutive year the club has been a bargain bin shopper, looking for low risk-high upside players, as they have another year before significant payroll relief.

Here’s a look at the moves they were, or are rumored to be, involved in.

C Miguel Olivo signed a two-year $7 million contract

This was simply not a great move. Generally, I trust Jack Zduriencik and his scouting team. I’m having a rough time with this one, though. Olivo played for the Mariners once, you may recall. He came over from Chicago in the Freddy Garcia trade. Safeco is not nice to right-handed pull hitters, and Olivo was no exception.

His numbers have improved a bit, but if you look at the splits, there’s no question Coors Field was a contributor. At home in Colorado, he hit a respectable 318/.349/.556 but on the road a laughable .211/.276/.322.

Read those road numbers again and try not to cringe. That the Mariners added a second year makes this possibly the worst move of the Zduriencik era (TBD: depends on how Morrow turns out in Toronto). Though, it was an area of need, and what we may not know is that the front office has all but given up on Adam Moore and none of the other free agents bit.

Here is one positive way to look at this: Seemingly every year some playoff contending team needs a fill in for their injured catcher. I don’t think Jack is an idiot. I could easily see Olivo spun into some interesting prospect(s) at the trade deadline. Nothing premium, but this organization needs all the talent it can find.

DH Jack Cust signed a one-year $2.5 million contract

Okay, I know your initial thought. But we have to remember that the Mariners are bargain shopping again this year waiting for salary relief in 2011. While the Olivo deal doesn’t fit well into that plan, this one does. Cust is a left-hander with some pop, and could see a boost from Safeco Field.

Though, he does have much of his power to left-center, which is why right-handers generally do poor here. So, I expect this to be a push as far as home park help/hurt, but the price doesn’t kill the budget.

I initially thought this would lead to a Milton Bradley DFA, but it appears the club is ready to keep him on board and split time at DH and left field between the two veterans and Michael Saunders.

RP Jose Flores acquired form Cleveland Indians in Rule 5 Draft

There isn’t much to say here. This is likely one of those guys that will be returned at the end of spring training. Flores is a guy who sits in the low to mid 90s with good command, with no secondary pitches behind his fastball and has only played as high as A ball. You never know, I guess. But, I’m again left scratching my head at the decisions made by a scouting organization I highly respect.

Rumor: M’s interested in Cleveland INF Luis Valbuena

Yes, that Luis Valbuena. As you likely recall, the Mariners sent Valbuena to the Tribe as part of the three team trade that netted them Franklin Gutierrez and sent JJ Putz to the Mets. It was a home run of a trade, and with Valbuena struggling last year it is possible they could get him back for something small in return.

No real details of a possible proposal have come out, and it may be that he was just a target of the front office. That would be strange if the case, since generally the Mariners are a very tight lipped front office and leaks often come from companion teams in trade talks. So, it may have at least been floated to the Indians.

Valbuena is still young, and has shown he has nothing to prove at AAA. It’s possible he ends up as one of those AAAA type guys who never transitions to the majors well, but the Mariners are a team that can fit him into their current roster. He can man second base until Ackley is ready, then slide to shortstop when Jack Wilson has his annual injury.

International: SS Esteilon Peguero signs for $2.9 million

This was the fourth largest bonus ever given by the Mariners. Only Ackley, Ichiro and Jeff Clement have received higher bonuses. It was also the largest bonus given to any international signing this season, and one of the biggest ever.

I talked a little bit about the international signing process and what a gamble it is in this piece.

Cliff notes: You just don’t know. Some scouts project Peguero as a guy who will have to slide to second or third base. Jack Zduriencik says they still project him a a shortstop for now. But everyone seems to agree that he’ll hit. While probably not a big bopper, he could fill out his frame and be a nice gap doubles hitter. Remember, he’s 17.

What’s Next?

– The Mariners still need to figure out what they’re doing with Chone Figgins. They could use Josh Wilson at second base if they really want to move Figgins back to third (or if he demands). With Jose Lopez being traded to Colorado, it makes the most sense to move Figgins back there regardless. It’s not entirely impossible that Figgins is traded, but his contract puts the plausibility in question.

– Don’t write off the possibility of a secret squirrel Zduriencik trade in the next few days. This team still needs to be set up for 2012. They’ll have more money next year, and if a Justin Upton type scenario pops up, and the price is right, it could happen.

– What to do with Cust/Bradley/Saunders. If Saunders isn’t in a trade package, I don’t know what happens here. Bradley will surely be on the DL at least once this season and his contract is the reason he’s here in the first place. I suppose it’s better than Griffey/Sweeney/Bradley, but the problem is still there.

There’s still a lot of work to make this roster into one that doesn’t lose 100 games. They should get some help from bounce back seasons from some of the guys. There’s just no way that many players have the worst year of their career again.

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The clock struck midnight, and the deadline for MLB teams to tender contracts passed. Of course, non-tendering doesn’t mean you can’t or won’t return to that club, but often times it’s a good sign that the team, player or both wanted to go in a different direction.

Let’s take a look at some of the players who were non-tendered and where they might catch on.

LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith, Seattle Mariners

The Skinny: 2010 wasn’t a good season for the only player in MLB history with a hyphenated last name. In fact, it was downright miserable. Converted back to a starter midway through 2008, RR-S saw relative success through 2009, thanks in part to Safeco Field being friendly to soft tossing lefties (see: Moyer, Washburn, etc…). 2010 was a disaster that saw an ERA over 6.00, a demotion to AAA Tacoma and a move back to the bullpen.

The Non-Tender: Though Rowland-Smith was unlikely to see much of a raise through arbitration, considering the year he had, he asked for and was granted his release, even though he was offered a major league contract. A fan favorite, a true class act and guy you just want to root for, the Ozzie will be looking for a new team.

The Perfect Fit: Seattle really is the best fit for his skill set and would allow him to stay in a comfort zone. If he does go elsewhere, though, San Diego might be a great fit. It’s a big ballpark. It’s also the National League, so this could be a good rebound spot.

RHP Joel Peralta, Washington Nationals

The Skinny: This is an interesting one. Peralta was one of the Nationals’ best relievers, statistically, in 2010. Unless he punched a baby in the face or something, I can’t figure out why a guy who put up a similar stat line to Rafael Soriano was cut loose. True, he’s 34, and regression is in order—but I just can’t see why he’d be cut loose for nothing.

The Non-Tender: The Nats offered Peralta a one-year deal for around $2 million. He wanted two years as reward for his good season. The Nats must have decided that they’d rather non-tender him than risk a potential reward he may have gotten in arbitration.

The Perfect Fit: Teams are always looking for bargain relievers, so there should be a decent market for him. The Mets could be a team wanting to contend who could use a reliever, and Citi Field should play well for Peralta.

OF Lastings Milledge, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Skinny: Milledge is still only 25, isn’t a good defender and doesn’t hit for much power. About the only thing he may have going for him is some speed and the ability to steal a base. I go back to his age, though. Surely some team will take a chance on him—A minor league deal and maybe a fourth OF/PH/PR bench job.

The Non-Tender: The Pirates likely didn’t want to pay the salary he’d get, even though it’d probably only be in the $1.5 million range.

The Perfect Fit: Not the American League. Perhaps the Cubs or Diamondbacks with their friendly parks could use a young bench player.

LHP J.P. Howell, Tampa Bay Rays

The Skinny: Howell missed the entire 2010 season with a shoulder injury. He’s just 27, though, and put up solid numbers in 2009 including 17 saves.

The Non-Tender: This is expected to just be a payroll move, and by all accounts Howell wants to come back. You have to wonder, though, what he’d think if the right team with the right cash called, if he’d reconsider.

The Perfect Fit: Considering his desire to stay in Tampa, it would probably take a team like the Mets or Giants calling. Teams that can offer him more cash or the incentive to win. The Rays are shedding players and payroll, so they may not be able to offer him either.

C Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Skinny: In the middle part of the past decade, Martin was a young up-and-coming catcher. Good defense with solid offensive potential. Some regressing in 2007 and 2008, then a steep drop-off in 2009 and 2010. He’s had some hip issues, which aren’t good for catchers. His agent claims he’s fine, but that’s his job.

The Non-Tender: The Dodgers appear to be close to re-signing Rod Barajas, so Martin becomes more expendable. The McCourts are still fighting, so budgets will remain tight.

The Perfect Fit: Two places pop into mind. First, rival San Francisco. The Giants obviously have their catcher in Buster Posey, but he’ll need days off. Martin is a few years younger than current backup Eli Whiteside. While Whiteside had a “career year,” it’s a pretty small sample. I’d expect regression for both players but more on the positive side for Martin.

The other would be Seattle. If Adam Moore gets hurt or sent down, the Mariners will want a veteran backup with passable defense and at least some offensive potential. This could be one of Martin’s better hopes for potential playing time.

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Here’s a fact: The 2010 Mariners were pretty miserable. Aside from the expected contributions from Ichiro, Felix and Gutierrez, the rest was hard to watch. I’m an expert on the subject of how sore this made your eyes, having only missed 10 games this past season (and I thank my lovely girlfriend for those 10 blissful days).

So, what might 2011 bring? Could it get better before it gets worse? Could an improving AL West further bury the Mariners?

Well, by golly, pull up a seat and have a listen.

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