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There has been significant movement in the Cliff Lee trade drama over the last 48 hours, and just when it seemed like the Tampa Bay Rays had moved in as the front runners, a new team has emerged.

While there are more than five teams that are all jockeying for position, there is one team that is working hard to get a deal done and has spoken with the Mariners about possible players that could be involved.

ESPN’s Jayson Starks says the Mariners are telling teams that it’s going to take two blue-chip prospects and a third young player to get a deal done.

We’ll go through each team that is in the running and who this new front runner is, as well as what players might be involved.

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Forget the Chinese Zodiac. 2010 was supposed to be the Year of the Mariner. 

As a result of a promising 2009 season and the acquisition of many talented players, there were extremely high expectations for the Seattle Mariners to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

But through the first two and a half months of the season, the Mariners stand 28-41 and 13 games behind division-leading Texas Rangers.

When things go wrong, the logical approach is to figure out the root of the problem. Unfortunately for the Mariners, it’s nearly impossible to pinpoint the mechanism for this disastrous season. However, it needs to be done.

So who’s to blame?

Blame Milton Bradley for creating distractions and tensing up the formerly light-hearted clubhouse.

Blame Ryan Garko and Eric Byrnes, two veterans with upside that never panned out as Mariners.

Blame Jose Lopez, the second-longest standing Mariner, for his slow start.

Blame Ian Snell and Ryan Rowland-Smith, who combine for a 1-11 record.

Blame Erik Bedard for hibernating during baseball season.

Blame manager Don Wakamatsu for creating questionable lineups at best.

Blame general manager Jack Zduriencik for not picking up a big bat when he had the money to do so.

Blame it on youngsters Matt Tuiasosopo, Adam Moore and Mike Carp and their rough transition to the majors.

While each of these points could become it’s own column, the fault lies within the over-achievement of the 2009 team.

Last year was a memorable season in the Emerald City. Coming off a 101-loss campaign, the Mariners shocked the league by finishing 85-77 and gave Mariners’ fans promising hope for a playoff run in the near future.

Using modern methods of statistics, Zduriencik focused on playing old-school ball, and built his team around pitching and defense. Statistics show the Mariners were the best in both.

Highlighted by Franklin Gutierrez’s stellar defensive season (he posted a league-leading 29 UZR), the Mariners had the best defensive team in the AL, with Adrian Beltre, Jack Wilson and Ichiro also recording great seasons. Having a swarm of venus flytraps at your expense gave the pitchers an insurmountable confidence and saved many possible runs, hence their league-leading ERA. 

The Mariners committed to Zduriencik’s philosophy of excellent pitching and defense, and they delivered, staying in the playoff hunt until late summer. 

However, the Mariners weren’t nearly as good as their record led us to believe.

I’ve never been one to bring luck into sports. I don’t believe in “lucky shots” or “the victor was lucky to win.” Excellence in sports is centered around talent, execution and preparation. Nonetheless, it seems like the outfield grass at Safeco Field was full of four-leaf clovers in 2009.

Although I’m sure Bill James is in his basement devouring Scooby-Doo fruit snacks creating a statistic measuring luck, there is not a number that can be placed on the M’s fortune.

But we can at least breakdown what we know. Here are four reasons that shows how luck led to the M’s misleading record. 

1) According to the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball, which adjusts the win-loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed, their record should have been 75-87. They scored 640 runs (worst in AL) while giving up 692 (best in AL), becoming just the third team since 1893 to finish with a winning record while recording below the league average in runs scored. 

In 2010, the Pythagorean Theorem directly correlates with the Mariners win-loss performance. Judging by their run differential, the Mariners should be 27-42, just one game below their actual record. This shows just how “lucky” the Mariners were to finish with a record above .500.

2) The Mariners played in 55 one-run games last season, most in the majors. Miraculously, the Mariners won 35 of them, seven more than the next team in the AL. Since approximately 1/3 of Seattle’s games were decided by one run, it is evident their fate heavily relied on these games. All season the Mariners were flirting with the fine line of failure, and would have wound up in the cellar if it weren’t for the remarkable, if not lucky, performance in close games.

Once again the Mariners lead the AL in one-run games, but the outcome is completely different. While the Mariners won the most one-run games last year, they have the most one-run losses so far in 2009. They posted a ridiculous 64 percent winning percentage in one-run contests, compared to 42 percent this season. This also the by far the lowest mark in the division, with Texas having the next lowest percentage, 58 percent. 

3) The Mariners also led the American League in extra-inning victories (nine). Extra-inning games are basically a coin flip, and luckily for the Mariners it usually landed on heads.

If the Mariners lost half the games they won, they would have been a decent .500 team continuing to rebuild, not a primer for a 2010 playoff run. Obviously this shows a knack for clutch hitting, but also poses the idea the Mariners were lucky to sneak by with a few.

This year has been the polar opposite. In seven extra-inning games, the Mariners have won just one. Only the Red Sox have a worse record (1-7). Thus far, the Mariners are the lone team in the division to struggle in extra-inning outings. Each of the other three division rivals have a winning percentage of .500 or above. 

4) According to Jeff Sullivan at Lookout Landing, David Aardsma had 17 balls travel to the warning track or further last season. This number is extremely high, and Aardsma’s very fortunate that only four went over the wall, or 24 percent (compared to 57 for the rest of the staff).

The fact that 13 balls were caught within feet of the wall is perhaps the luckiest stat of them all, especially considering the situations in which they were hit. As the closer, Aardsma is on the mound in the most important moments of the game. If the bat were tilted a tenth of a degree or swung a tenth of a second different, many of those 13 outs would have landed over the fence. This would drastically change the records in extra-inning and one-run games.

Aardsma hasn’t been nearly as lucky this season. He has already matched last year’s mark with four blown saves, and has struggled to stay consistent in the closer role. The Mariners have lost 13 games in their opponents’ last at-bat.

If they win all those games, they sit in first place in the AL West. Of those 13 games, eight have been on walk-off hits. These are games the Mariners are dropping this year that never would have happened last season. 

If the Mariners played like they should of according to their run differential and without a large amount of luck, their record would have been well below .500, as expected. This would have set up another rebuilding season, and not lead to a roster overhaul. However, they played much better than they truly were, and set up for the following season to be a huge disappointment. 

Although trying to grasp that it will be another Mariner-less October is hard enough, it is even more painful to comprehend Carlos Silva, now on the Cubs and the worst pitcher in Mariner’s team history, has as many wins as Cliff Lee and Doug Fister combined. 

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Both Prince Fielder and the Seattle Mariners are off to very slow starts in 2010.

While slow starts have become the norm for Fielder, the Mariners were picked by many to win the AL West, but they are already 11 games behind first-place Texas. Only the Orioles are off to a worst start in the American League.

After so many signings and trades in the offseason, expectations were sky-high for a team that surprisingly won 85 games in 2009. General Manager Jack Zduriencik made the moves he thought would ensure a division title. 

Even with all the moves that were made, critics still said Zduriencik and the Mariners lacked the big bat in the middle of the lineup needed to power the offense. He could solve all his problems by acquiring Fielder, the player he drafted with the Brewers in the first round of the 2002 draft.

On the surface, the Brewers and Mariners seem to be perfect trading partners. The Brewers need pitching, the Mariners need hitting, and Zduriencik knows the Brewers’ roster and farm system as well as anyone in the game. 

The two teams were almost trade partners last season as the Brewers tried to acquire Jarrod Washburn at the trade deadline. However, Zduriencik’s asking price of either Alcides Escobar or Mat Gamel was simply too much for Brewers GM Doug Melvin to part with for a three-month rental.

The Mariners currently have several pitching options that could be sent to Milwaukee for Fielder, despite the fact that they traded away their top pitching prospect, Phillippe Aumont, to the Phillies in the Cliff Lee trade this past winter.

Ryan Rowland-Smith and Jason Vargas are each under team control until after the 2013 season. Rowland-Smith has struggled this season with a record of 0-4 with a 7.62 ERA after putting together two solid seasons in Seattle in 2008 and 2009. Vargas is 3-2 with a 2.93 ERA in seven starts this year.

Both pitchers are lefties, but even though the Brewers have a number of lefty options, either would be better than what the team currently has been sending to the mound.

Doug Fister is a 6’8″ righty that has been dominant so far in 2010. Fister is 3-1 with a 1.72 ERA in seven starts. He has gone at least seven innings in five of his seven starts this season. This is Fister’s first full season in the majors, and he’s only given up nine earned runs in 47 innings pitched.

The Mariners could give the Brewers a built-in replacement for Fielder by sending Casey Kotchman to Milwaukee. Kotchman is off to a horrible start in 2010 but is a far superior defensive player to Fielder. He’s making just over $3.5 million this year, and he is under team control until after next season.

Although the Mariners don’t have a top-ranked farm system, they do have several players that could be sent to Milwaukee in exchange for Fielder.

The team’s top prospect is Dustin Ackley. Ackley was the second overall pick in last year’s draft. He is struggling this season at Double-A West Tennessee. In 34 games this year, he’s hitting only .198 with one home run and 10 RBI. He has been converted to a full-time first baseman, and that fact could be very appealing to Melvin.

Michael Saunders was recently called up by the Mariners. The 23-year-old outfielder is hitting .235 in 54 career big league games. He is considered by many scouts to be a five-tool player, and he could possibly make the switch to first base in the future, although he is a solid defender in the outfield. 

The teams seem to be quite logical trade partners. A trade proposal such as Fielder and Gamel for Kotchman, Saunders, and Fister could help both teams salvage this year as well as build for the future, even if Fielder departs via free agency after the 2011 season.

With the continued struggles of both teams, something needs to be done soon before the season is lost for both teams. Each is still very much alive for its division, and if the deal is right, a trade could help both clubs head back towards the top of their respective divisions.

It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility that Fielder could sign long-term with the Mariners. After 2011, the only long-term deals the team has belong to Felix Hernandez, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ichiro. Ichiro is able to become a free agent after the 2012 season, so other than Hernandez, the Mariners will need someone to step in as the face of the franchise.

Could Prince Fielder be the perfect fit?

To read more by Jesse Motiff, click here.

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For a man considered by many to be very talented, Milton Bradley has called eight cities “home” in 11 seasons in MLB.

I realize there have been other players who have become “shop worn” over the years. Kenny Lofton pops into my mind first. He played for 11 different squads in his very good 17-year career.

With Lofton 10 of those teams came in his final seven seasons after spending a decade with the Cleveland Indians.

Lofton was one point away from being a career .300 hitter. He showed skills and was not ejected from one town to another because of his personal demons.

Bradley, on the other hand has never measured up to the model many people had thought he had trying to burst out from the rough exterior.

In his career Bradley has only played one season in which he had enough ABs to qualify for any time of statistical reward, not that any would be due him.

In 2004 with the Los Angeles Dodgers he played 141 games and had 516 ABs. He batted only .267 with 19 HR and 67 RBI.

In four partial seasons he managed to bat over .300, his high-water mark being in 2008 when he batted .321 with the Texas Rangers.

His personality disorder(s) has made him the modern day Jimmy Piersall. Many readers are too young to remember him.

He was an outfielder with similar personal problems, mostly remembered as a member of the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians.

There was also a movie made about him starring Anthony Perkins, called “Fear Strikes Out.”

Most people don’t remember that he had a decent career, just that he was “not right”.  Is that the legacy Bradley will be faced with?

He has already had enough strikes against him to be called out, and I mean out permanently. He is the MLB version of Terrell Owens, without being one of the best at his position.

The baggage he carries is too much for any Skycap guy to handle. I am not certain where or when his problems actually began, but the first I am privy to is the incident in Cleveland.

At the beginning of the ’04 season he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Franklin Gutierrez and Andrew Brown after a confrontation with manager Eric Wedge.

In 2007 he was placed on the Disabled List after he tore an ACL while being restrained by San Diego manager Bud Black.

Bradley was in an altercation with umpire Mike Winters.

Winters had told the home plate umpire that in a previous at-bat Bradley flung his bat toward him (Brian Runge). Winters was subsequently suspended after it was found that he had used profanity at Bradley (where would we be if every ump that cussed a player would be suspended?).

No further action was directed toward Bradley by the league.

In 2008 as a Texas Ranger, Bradley had a confrontation with Kansas City Royals’ announcer Ryan Lefebvre in the press box.

Bradley took umbrage at a comment the announcer made comparing Josh Hamilton and Bradley. A full-blown confrontation was dismantled and Bradley was reduced to tears in a public display of emotion.

With the Chicago Cubs in ’09 Bradley was again at the center of controversy. He was suspended for arguing a call with umpire Larry Vanover.

After Bradley flew out in a game against crosstown rival, the White Sox, he and manager Lou Piniella had a blow-up and Bradley was told by the manager to go home.

After that particular incident, Piniella reportedly said, “This has been a common occurrence and I’ve looked the other way a lot and I’m tired… I’m not into discipline, I’m really not. I’m going to put his name in the lineup tomorrow and that’s it.”

The Seattle Mariners acquired Bradley in an off-season deal that sent pitcher Carlos Silva and cash to the Cubs. The Mariners (as was I) were in high hopes that he could help them get to their first World Series this year.

In a game a few days ago he became irate after striking out twice in a game. Manager Don Wakamatsu removed him from the game prompting Bradley to say, “I’m packing my stuff. I’m out of here.”

Bradley sent a message to ESPN’s Colleen Dominguez, saying, “Any reports that I said I’m packing up and leaving are 100 percent fabricated.”

My point is this: How many strikes do you get? He has proved himself to be a polarizing (negative) component everywhere he has played.

The Mariners are waiting for Bradley to seek outside help and create a plan for self-improvement before any further action is taken.

It is clear to anyone with eyes that Bradley has some emotional disorder(s). Hopefully, he can get his personal life worked out.

I am told he is a pleasant man to talk to, but when stress levels hit the boiling point, he is someone else. Does Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde ring a bell?

Every time I hear of one of Bradley’s outbursts I am reminded of the scene in “Fear Strikes Out” when Piersall (actually Perkins) begins climbing up the backstop.

What are your thoughts?

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Finally. Or maybe that should read, “Final-Lee?”

The Seattle Mariners made a huge trade in the offseason to acquire the services of former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, and tonight, a month into the season, he will make his first appearance on the mound.

Lee got off on the wrong foot this year. Literally. Literal-Lee. A couple of weeks prior to spring training, he needed a minor surgery on his foot and would miss the start of the exhibition season.

Spring training was no kinder to Lee, as he took the brunt of a collision with Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Chris Snyder, and strained his abdomen. He continued to pitch in the game, only to get into more trouble.

Lee’s foot and midsection injuries forced a pitch to sail over the head of Snyder in his next at-bat. The wild throw was later ruled to be intentional, resulting in a five-game suspension to start the season.

However, the injury was more of an issue than the impending suspension, and would land him on the disabled list to start the season. During the rehab process, which included an experimental, platelet-rich injection to the abdomen area, Lee’s appeal of his suspension was found to be legitimate, and MLB dropped the suspension.

His foot also seemed to heal completely. “Complete-Lee” appears to be a great descriptive for his current condition.

Lee described his injury as a “non-issue,” saying, “It has been more than a month since he felt discomfort.”

The Mariners were very cautious because this is the third time he has been sidelined with the same type of injury. The first two times, he missed significant playing time, and was not very productive immediately following the healing process.

The M’s know they most likely (“like-Lee”) have his services for just this season, so they wanted him at a hundred percent so he could contribute at his normal, stellar capacity.

Lee is healthy now. Lee is motivated. Lee is focused.

In his Triple-A start last Sunday, he allowed just three hits (including one on a bunt and one where a fly ball was lost in the sun), while striking out four and walking none.

Lee said he is anxious to “get back and help the team up in Seattle and try to have fun and let it all hang out.”

The rest of the AL West Division may be a little bit worried at this point. Seattle is just a half-game back in the standings, and they just got a whole lot better with one of their two Aces ready to take aim at division rival Texas tonight.

The balance of power in the division has shifted toward the Mariners, simply because they can now start relying on both of their Aces to carry them the rest of the year. The pennant is there for the taking, and there are five reasons Cliff Lee will be leading (“Lee”-ding”) the way.

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Turning the Tide

Less than three weeks ago, the Seattle Mariners were in a proverbial free fall. The Mariners dropped consecutive series at Oakland and Texas to start the season and lost the home opener to Oakland to open a nine-game home stand.

Sitting at 2-6, the Seattle Mariners were down, but not out. Many fans wondered, however, if the Mariners’ 2010 season had died in early April.

Now three weeks later, the Seattle Mariners have proverbially gotten back on their feet. Since the 2-6 start, the Mariners have won series against Oakland, Detroit, and Kansas City and completed a three-game sweep against the Baltimore Orioles. Despite falling victim to a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox, the Mariners now sit on an 11-11 record near the end of April.

Had you talked to any Mariners fan after the home-opening loss against Oakland, in which the Mariners offense managed to produce just two hits, they would been ecstatic at the potential of an 11-11 record. After all, the prospects at that time were far worse.

After the home opener, Cliff Lee was both injured and facing a pending suspension, Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins were a combined 14-for-59 (.237), and cleanup hitter Milton Bradley was a preposterous 1-for-22 on the season (.045).

Since that loss to Oakland, however, the Mariners’ fortunes have changed. Lee progressed through rehab in time to make an April return, Ichiro is 22-for-55 (.400) over the last 13 games, and Bradley is 10-for-31 (.323) over the last 15 games, slugging .452 in that stretch.

Of course, several other players have factored into the Mariners’ success. The starting pitching has been markedly better, surprisingly led by Doug Fister, and Franklin Gutierrez and Casey Kotchman have been phenomenal so far this season.

The Upcoming Series and Its Implications for the Seattle Mariners 

Having reversed a downward spiral from the first few weeks, the Seattle Mariners now enter what could turn out to be the most important series of the 2010 series.

At 11-11, the Mariners sit a half game back of co-division leaders Texas and Oakland. This weekend, the Mariners have a chance to jump the Texas Rangers, and with a little help, they could jump the Oakland Athletics as well. It’s worth noting that the A’s have cooled off substantially over the past few weeks, dropping seven of their last 10 games.

Aside from division standings, this game also marks the season debut of heralded free agent acquisition and former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. As previously mentioned, Lee’s 2010 season has faced numerous obstacles, but he is prepared to make his season debut tonight in the pitcher-friendly confines of Safeco Field.

The Mariners have their best arms guiding them in the upcoming series. Lee takes the mound tonight, Felix Hernandez is on the hill tomorrow, and Fister, who is 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA over his last three starts, is scheduled to pitch on Sunday.

The Texas Rangers, meanwhile, have recently faced a series of obstacles. Within the past week the Rangers optioned 1B Chris Davis to Triple-A Oklahoma City, placed All-Star OF Nelson Cruz, who was top-five in the American League in home runs, runs batted in, and slugging percentage, on the disabled list, and watched RP Neftali Feliz throw four innings to earn a 13.50 ERA, a loss, and a blown save.

On a positive note for the Rangers, All-Star 2B Ian Kinsler returns from the disabled list this weekend. He returns from an ankle sprain suffered in spring training, however, and skeptics have questioned whether he is ready to play at full strength.

With a division up for grabs, a division rival in town, and the debut of the much-anticipated Lee-Hernandez pitching duo, the upcoming series against the Texas Rangers may provide a glimpse into the Mariners’ 2010 chance of success.

Yes, it is only one series, but this series has implications that could stick with the Seattle Mariners for the rest of the season—for better or worse.

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