Kuzul

After completely missing all of 2009 thanks to Tommy John surgery, Shaun Marcum returned to the Blue Jays rotation in 2010 with mixed expectations. Many pitchers have successfully come back from TJ surgery in the past but that success is far from guaranteed. Marcum didn’t just get back to his old self, he turned in the best season of his career.

For just the second time in his career, all of Marcum’s appearances were starts. He first became a full-time starter in 2008 turning in 25 starts in 25 appearances. In 2010, Marcum took the ball from the start 31 times and hurled a career high 195 1/3 innings. He compiled a 3.64 ERA and was worth a career best 3.5 WAR. Marcum only had one real injury concern in 2010 missing a few weeks in July with elbow inflammation. It’ll be interesting to see how his arm reacts next season going from almost no work in ’09 to nearly 200 innings at the big league level in 2010.

Despite coming back from injury, Marcum finished the season strong with a 3.31 FIP in 38 1/3 September innings. Marcum only turned in one bad month all season in August when both his ERA and FIP were north of five and he gave up eight homers in just 32 innings of work for the month. The homers have always been a nuisance for Marcum in his career as he consistently posts worse than average HR/9 innings marks. His 1.11 HR/9 IP in 2010 was the best of his career but still on the wrong side of the league average .96 HR/9 IP.

He may have staved off homers at a better rate than in year’s past but how much he had to do with it, isn’t clear. Marcum had generated groundballs on more than 40 percent of his balls in play in both 2007 and 2008 but failed to do so in 2010 with a meager 38.4 percent groundball rate. His 43 percent flyball rate was the second highest of his career. He’s not going to become an extreme groundball pitcher and may be hurt by long balls again in the future. But for 2010 anyways, it wasn’t a major roadblock to success.

Marcum’s 3.74 FIP was far away the best of his career, never before putting up a FIP under 4.46. That’s what tends to happen when you strike out a career high 7.60 batters per nine and walk a scant 1.98 per nine. The strikeout rate wasn’t drastically higher than his career average of 7.28 and it was the third time he’s had an above average strikeout rate. The career high in Ks was supported by a solidly above average, and career high, 10.9 swinging strike percentage.

The biggest contributor to his excellent FIP, and season as a whole, was the walk rate. In 2007 and 2008 Marcum displayed walk rates of 2.77 and 2.97 across 159 and 151 innings, respectively. That control was taken to a whole new level in 2010 with the AL’s fourth best walk rate and third best strikeout to walk ratio among qualified starters.

Marcum is primarily a fastball-change pitcher, with those two pitches accounting for 70 percent of his pitches thrown last season. He also mixed in cutters, curveballs and some occasional sliders. The fastball averaged just 87 MPH, with the change-up zipping across at about 80 MPH. The change was so effective that Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Madden tried to neutralize it by having his switch hitters bat right handed against the right handed Marcum. FanGraphs rated Marcum’s change as the second best change among all AL starters narrowly behind Felix Hernandez’s change-up.

Marcum was pitching in his first of three arbitration seasons at age 28 and turned in a bargain of a season for the Jays who only had to layout 850,000 dollars for his services. That number is going to rise by quite a bit for Marcum’s age 29 season but Marcum figures to be worth the expense. Even with some regression in his home run and walk rates, if healthy, Marcum will continue to be a solid top to mid rotation pitcher. After “out-pitching” his FIP with markedly lower ERAs for a few seasons, Marcum had a season that impressed both new and old stat heads alike. 

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Alex Anthopoulos finally made it official by announcing the Blue Jays have hired John Farrell, the former pitching coach of the Boston Red Sox, to be the twelfth manager in Blue Jays history. Farrell was considered one of the best minds available. In fact Terry Francona stated it was not a question of whether he became a bench boss, or even how long (he knew it would be this year), it was a question of where.

By hiring Farrell, Anthopoulos solidifies the idea that the Blue Jays will build from within. Farrell was famous for making the Cleveland Indians farm system one of the best in baseball. This caught the eyes of the Red Sox brass and they promptly hired him as their pitching coach.

Under his tutelage some of the bright young stars of the Boston Red Sox pitching rotation were formed. This would greatly help the young pitchers the Blue Jays have on the team now (Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Shaun Marcum, Brett Cecil etc.) but also the ones coming up through the system like Kyle Drabek, and Deck McGuire.

Anthopoulos is taking a huge risk in hiring this unproven manager. Of course it is highly unlikely a proven manager would come to the Blue Jays by leaving their current jobs. As for the ones who don’t have a job now, most of them are old and so would not be able to make as big of an impact by the time they would retire. By getting someone as young as Farrell (48) he is able to take the risk of getting a stud manager for years to come.

Lots of people are saying this is another one of those brilliant moves by Alex Anthopoulos. I tend to agree. But don’t just take my word for it. Even Manny Ramirez agrees. He claims to have been a fan of the Blue Jays since the 1980s because of all the Dominican players that they had on their teams.

Now with the addition of Farrell, whom he claims is extremely knowledgeable about the game, he is apparently considering signing with the Blue Jays. Of course one wonders at the age of 38 who really wants him, but then again this is still Manny Ramirez.

Now Farrell has to build his team. That is to say he has to decide if he keeps the current coaching staff or not. He can decide to bring in his own guys, and maybe even do the job of the pitching coach himself. I am against that as I believe it extends the manager too much and he has to be able to delegate this stuff. Furthermore, if the Jays had been able to keep their former pitching coach Brad Arnsberg there is no question he keeps him but now its all up for debate. 

Personally I think the only person safe from being fired from the coaching staff is Brian Butterfield as he has done a solid job being the third base coach. The only difference I see is that Farrell may choose to move him around to first base or maybe even hitting coach, but a man of his caliber probably has a job with this organization for quite a while.

Now that Farrell has finally been hired, the question is what’s next? The Blue Jays play in one of the toughest divisions in baseball with the Yankees and Red Sox spending a tonne of money on their rosters. So will Farrell be able to get the extra 11 or so wins needed to get into the postseason next year or will the Blue Jays have to keep building (Anthopoulos refuses to call this a rebuild) their team? The answer to these questions remains to be seen. 

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Roy Halladay is known as perhaps the greatest pitcher to ever pull on a Blue Jays uniform; some would say that it is without a doubt that he is.

That could be quite intimidating for a young pitcher in the rotation with him.

Last year when Halladay was still with the Blue Jays, Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil came up to pitch with the team for the first time.  Halladay was the undisputed leader among the pitching staff at this time due to his experience and almost legendary status.

Having a pitcher on the team who can lead by example the way Halladay did cannot be underestimated. Simply watching Halladay practice and pitch could be a giant learning experience for pitchers just coming up to the Major Leagues.

But as ball clubs change and develop, different leaders are appropriate for the different times.  When Halladay was traded in the winter, Shaun Marcum became the veteran leader on the Blue Jays staff despite losing last season to injury.

The 2010 season has seen Marcum recover with surprising success, putting up a 3.63 ERA, a 13-8 record with 161 strikeouts and just 43 walks.  His control and consistency, as well as his experience, has made him the pitcher that the other staff looks to for leadership.  But it is his easygoing and fun approach to the games that has helped to make this a very different pitching staff.

With Marcum being the oldest starter at 28 years old, this is a very young pitching rotation with many of the starts coming from pitchers from the minors such as Kyle Drabek.

There are also new additions such as Brandon Morrow, who came over in a trade from the Seattle Mariners.

With this combination of youth and new pitchers, it is important to have someone who can bring the picthing staff together.  Marcum has become that pitcher, and because of that, the Blue Jays have a very noticeable bond and camaraderie.

This companionship has created a sense of friendly competition and pushed the starters to a surprising and rather impressive year.  Romero established himself as a future ace with his play this year, and broke the 200 innings milestone for the first time.  Morrow led the league in strikeouts per nine innings this year and learned to control his powerful arm.  Cecil greatly improved on last year with his all-around numbers and led the team in wins.

Halladay personified greatness in a Blue Jays uniform, but in the end, perhaps it was the right time for him to move on.  He gets a chance to compete in the postseason this year as he justly deserves, and the Blue Jays have the opportunity to evolve into a different team, one that once again has a chance to make it to the playoffs.  

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The Toronto Blue Jays play in the most competitive division in baseball, yet have assembled a five-man rotation, who all have potential fantasy upside. 

Let’s take a look at the candidates in order to determine the potential long-term success:

Brandon Morrow

The 17-strikeout game aside, Morrow has a ton of potential and might just now be scraping the surface of his ability. 

Maybe the Mariners continuous shifting of him between the bullpen and rotation stunted his development, but now as a full-time starting pitcher in Toronto, he’s excelling.

Overall this season he’s posted a 4.45 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, but he has struggled with some sub par luck (.341 BABIP, 69.1% strand rate). 

Those two numbers show great promise for improvement, especially with his humongous strikeout rate of 10.8 (165 Ks in 137.1 innings). 

He isn’t just a one-game phenomenon, but has been compiling Ks all year long.

Obviously, that number could fall some, especially when you consider that his minor league career mark was 8.1 over 101.2 innings (though, that includes just a 6.5 mark at Triple-A in 2009 when he was demoted to transition back to the rotation). 

The bottom line is that, at 26 years old, the numbers appear lined up to have great success. 

With his strikeout ability, all he needs is improved luck and he could post a huge year in 2011.

He’s a risk, but the reward is tremendous. He’s definitely worth keeping depending on your league rules.

Brett Cecil

There is upside in Cecil, who already has posted a 3.90 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season.  He posted a minor-league walk rate of 2.9, matching what he has done through 131.2 innings in 2010.

In the Majors he hasn’t posted big strikeout numbers, with a K/9 of 6.5. In the minor leagues he had a 9.0 mark, however, so there certainly is big-time potential for him to improve there.

He also has the potential to significantly improve on his ground-ball rate, which currently stands at 44.1 percent. Over his minor-league career, he had a 59.7 percent mark.

I will certainly spend more time on him in the offseason, but Cecil has pitched well with realistic metrics (.281 BABIP, 71.8 percent strand rate) and has the potential to pair solid control with improved strikeouts and ground balls. 

Sounds like a pitcher who could really develop into a must own fantasy option, doesn’t it?

I wouldn’t call him a must keep, because it certainly depends on your format, but he’s certainly a pitcher to be on all fantasy radars.

Ricky Romero

I’ve had my doubts about Romero dating back to 2009, but he continues to get the job done. This season he’s improved his strikeout rate (7.8 K/9) and control (3.2 BB/9), while posting believable luck metrics (.304 BABIP and 72.2 percent strand rate).

There truly is nothing not to like in those numbers, but can we actually expect him to improve on the 3.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP? 

He has maintained his ground-ball rate from last season (54.0 percent), but where is the upside potential? 

Even in the minor leagues, he was not a big strikeout artist (7.0 K/9 over 430 innings).  In fact, he posted a minor league ERA of 4.40 and struggled with his control (3.8 BB/9).

The numbers look nice, but this is probably the best we can expect from Romero.

He’s a solid pitcher, but is more likely to post an ERA in the 4.00 range without huge strikeouts numbers then he is to post a 3.25 ERA. 

He’s a nice player, but not one that I’d be looking to keep, especially playing in the AL East. There is nothing to “love” about him.

Marc Rzepczynski

He is someone that I was high on prior to the season, but injuries have severely limited his production. 

He’s appeared in just seven games (five starts), posting a 6.31 ERA and 1.64 WHIP.  While his rehab was in the Pacific Coast League, you also can’t be happy seeing his 6.04 ERA there.

The lefty has shown some strikeout ability in the minor leagues, including 60 Ks in his final 60.2 innings before being recalled. 

Couple that potential with some ground ball upside (53.2 percent this year at Triple-A, 50.6 percent in the Majors) and decent control, and you see he has some potential.

He is more likely to be a flier in the deepest of formats, or waiver wire fodder in 2011, but certainly not a keeper.

Shaun Marcum

There were legitimate concerns heading into 2010, considering he missed all of 2009.  Yet, he has returned to form immediately, with impeccable control (2.0 BB/9).

He is what he is right now, however, so there is no real upside. 

That means he’s going to be a good source of WHIP (1.13 this season and 1.24 for his career) and a good, but not great strikeout artist (7.5 K/9 and 7.2 for his career). 

He’s not among the elite, but depending on your keeper format he certainly is worth keeping.

What are your thoughts on the Blue Jays rotation?  Who would you target to keep?  Who would you keep your distance from?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM.

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Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has reported that Alex Anthopoulos has signed Ricky Romero to a five year $30.1 million contract extension. This is very odd for Anthopoulos, as he normally gives a bit less money in the early years of his contracts with options for big money later. In this case he gave Romero reasonable money, but this is the largest amount given to a player with less than two years of major league service.

I don’t like this signing at all. It only buys out the first year of his free agency, and I doubt he would get this kind of money in arbitration. My only guess is that there are option years added to the end of this deal that Rosenthal has not discovered.

This continues a trend for Alex Anthopoulos as he continues to lock up the young core of this team. Ricky Romero is definitely a solid pitcher. With a 3.53 ERA in the AL East, he can develop into an ace starter. Indeed earlier in the year his ERA was actually below 3, showing just how dominating he can be.

By locking up Romero to this kind of a contract it will have an effect on the rest of the team. After all, if Romero can get this kind of money why not Shaun Marcum? He is a solid young pitcher, and can develop into a top of the rotation starter. This will also affect the signing of Kyle Drabek once his rookie years end and his arbitration is about to start.

What is important to note here is that Anthopoulos values pitching more than hitting. The deals he gave Adam Lind and Aaron Hill were for less money even though they had outstanding seasons, whereas Romero has not had that great of a season yet.

I hope Anthopoulos has added option years. If he has then this deal can be very fair. If he has not, I sure hope he knows what he is doing. 

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The Toronto Blue Jays came into the series against the Boston Red Sox riding a wave of momentum in the clubhouse and enthusiasm in the city. 

Unfortunately, they hit a bit of a wall with two straight losses to their old American League East foes, falling 7-5 and 10-1.  If they can win Thursday night’s game, they still have a chance of recapturing that feeling heading into a three-game series in Anaheim against the Angels.

That would be a welcome boost to a team that has been contemplating the possibility of challenging for a wild card spot and has therefore recently seen a surge of support in Toronto.

While it is never a good thing to lose two games to a team you are trying to catch, there are still some positives that the team can draw from these games.

Shaun Marcum didn’t pitch nearly as badly as his line or the result of the game would suggest in his 10-1 loss.  Marcum’s strength as a pitcher lies in his control. He doesn’t have the pure stuff to dominate and neither is he a fireballer, so where he fools batters is in picking the corners of the strike zone and changing up his pitches. 

The problem was that the umpire was calling such a limited strike zone that Marcum was forced to start throwing it down the middle after walking two and hitting a batter in the first inning. 

Now, since he doesn’t have the power like Buchholz to simply blow it by the batter, and he couldn’t dance around the strike zone due to the patience of the Boston lineup, he became quite hittable. 

It is, of course, a cop-out to blame the umpire, but Marcum has been a very strong pitcher this year and this outing shouldn’t suggest that his season is going to take a turn for the worse.

The expectations began to rise for rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia after he had a spectacular debut against the Tampa Bay Rays, going 4-for-5, with two home runs and a double.  Baseball is a humbling game, though, and he ended up going 0-for-7 in his next two games. 

What stood out from this was not his plate struggles, as that will happen with any rookie, but his willingness to learn from the other Jays catchers and pitchers and his devotion to helping the team.

It seemed that Arencibia pulled a page right out of Jose Molina’s playbook tonight when he caught a pitch from Marcum and immediately rifled it to Lyle Overbay at first.  He had noticed the Boston baserunner straying too far from first and with a very accurate throw almost succeeded in picking him off. 

It is smart plays like that, when successful, that can be game changers and swing the momentum to your team.  If he is to be the future of the Blue Jays, it is good to see that Arencibia can contribute with more than just his bat.

Finally, although Travis Snider hasn’t heated up at the plate like he had before going down with injury, there are signs of his recovery.  He went 2-for-5 with a double, a home run, and three RBI in the first game against Boston.  Then in the second game, although going 0-for-4, he did manage to score the only run for the Jays in the ballgame. 

Snider hit the ball so hard directly at Mike Lowell that it ended up popping out of his glove and Snider reached first on an error.  Each time Travis Snider connects on a pitch, the ball seems to rocket off the bat like it was launched from a gun. Once he becomes more comfortable with big league pitching, that power will quickly convert into doubles and home runs.

The future is on display right now in the Blue Jays lineup, and it is showing a lot of promise.  It is looking like the fans are returning to the Rogers Centre, now that they know what they are cheering for.

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Besides the season-long—until recently anyway—home run barrage showering off the bats of Blue Jays hitters, the outstanding starting pitching has been the highlight of the season.

Along with Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil, Shaun Marcum has been outstanding just about every time he’s taken the mound.

Unfortunately, Marcum’s season is going to be taking an unexpected breather for at least the next couple of weeks. The elbow inflammation isn’t expected to be a major problem though, and Marcum should only miss one turn in the rotation thanks to the upcoming All-Star break.

That, coupled with the Blue Jays’ off day on Monday, means they won’t need another starter until July 10 if they send Cecil out on regular rest next Wednesday to take Marcum’s next turn.

In the meantime, that leaves the Jays with an interesting opportunity to play around with an extra roster spot for the next six games. With seven men already in the bullpen and Monday’s aforementioned off day, they don’t have to add another pitcher.

If the Jays are intent, however, on adding a pitcher, one pitcher worth taking another look at is left-hander Jesse Carlson. Just looking at his 4.91 ERA—never a good idea, by the way—you’d be inclined to think he’s the last or close to last option for a call-up. The rest of his numbers look much better though.

He’s struck out 30 batters against just eight walks in 33 innings. His 4.04 tRA is a good deal better than the PCL’s league average 4.84, and his FIP is a healthy 3.65.

He was also useful in 127 big league innings in 2008 and 2009 with a combined 3.52 ERA and 3.90 FIP. Carlson also showed effectiveness versus righties (4.03 FIP, 2.52 K/BB) as well as left-handers (3.78 FIP, 2.53 K/BB). If he came up and was effective, he would make lefties Scott Downs and Brian Tallet that much more expendable at the trade deadline.

The more interesting option would be to call up another position player, under the understanding that Cito Gaston would be implored to use him. This would be the perfect time to get a short five- or six-game look at either Brett Wallace or J.P. Arencibia before the All-Star break.

Five or six games is too short for serious evaluation, of course, but it could be a way for one of them to come up without the added pressure of replacing a veteran like John Buck or Lyle Overbay.

If either were brought up, they’d need to get out there and play every day to make it worth the trip. Wallace could be slotted in pretty easily either by splitting the six games between first and DH or perhaps two games apiece at third, first, and DH.

The Blue Jays have a four-day break for the All-Star Game, as they don’t get back to work until Friday the 16th. That gives the Jays two more weeks to possibly move Lyle Overbay, at which point Wallace would never have to head back down to Las Vegas.

Likewise, calling up Arencibia to make a four- or five-game debut would give him his first taste of the majors in a slightly lower pressure environment. If he comes up thinking he’s headed back down no matter how good or bad he does, he just might be all that more relaxed—if being relaxed making your big league debut were an option, but you get the point.

Just in the same way things could work out for Wallace, either catcher, be it John Buck or Jose Molina, could be dealt in the next two weeks, leaving room for Arencibia to stick around. The Jays would be able to work around the extra position player if they chose to pitch Brian Tallet on Saturday the 10th and go with a six man ‘pen for three or four days headed into the break.

Watching one of your team’s top pitchers go down is never enjoyable, but with the way the schedule breaks over the next two weeks, the Jays could give their fans something to keep them interested while he’s on the shelf.

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The Blue Jays have placed starting pitcher Shaun Marcum on the 15-day disabled list with right elbow inflammation. Although it’s not uncommon for pitchers who’ve had Tommy John surgery to experience a few lingering issues, this has to be alarming to Blue Jays brass.

After last night’s start, the Jays right-hander is 7-4 with a 3.88 ERA in 17 starts this season. His spot in the rotation will most likely be handed over to Brian Tallet (shudder ).

The Marcum injury comes on the heels of a five-game losing streak that saw the Jays fall from Wild Card contention. This will assuredly turn GM Alex Anthopoulos into a seller as the trade deadline approaches. 

Toronto is 9.5 games behind the Yankees for the AL East and 8.0 games behind Boston for the Wild Card.

The swoon may not be a surprise to fans with a more skeptical or analytical eye, but that doesn’t mean this turn of events is any less disappointing.

Furthermore, for those espousing the fantastical trade value of guys like John Buck and Fred Lewis, I draw your attention to the recent Bengie Molina trade .

Molina was sent to the catcher-needy Texas Rangers in exchange for reliever Chris Ray and minor league pitcher Michael Main .

Although not a bad haul for a veteran catcher, it’s not the top-five prospect jackpot that some Jay fans fantasized about in a John Buck deal. Also, by all accounts, Bengie Molina is a better player, albeit not having as good a season as Buck.

Although a fire sale is not anticipated, Toronto can be expected to move as many as four regulars as Anthopoulos continues to tinker with the fringe players and restock the minor leagues.

With the Yankees, Twins, and Red Sox representing the final nine games before the All—Star break, the Marcum injury could end up the least of our worries.

It’s going to get ugly.

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On Saturday while the Toronto Blue Jays were in the midst of an inter-league series with the Colorado Rockies, manager Cito Gaston was asked which of his players deserved All-Star consideration. Gatson told MLB.com writer Jordan Bastian that he felt Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Vernon Wells and Jose Bautista were worth serious consideration. Gaston also said he hopes to see at least three selections from his squad.

It would only seem natural for a manager to name several of his players for consideration, whether they had truly earned it or not. With that in mind, here’s a look at each of the five and if their performances stack up well enough in the American League to be worth a selection to the mid-summer classic.

Vernon Wells

Wells is the most deserving of all the Blue Jays hitters as he leads the team in wOBA at .394. The resurgent offensive attack from Wells has him hitting .292 with an isolated power of .292. His 15 homers not only matches last year’s total but it has him tied for second among AL outfielders with Texas’ Josh Hamilton. The 23 doubles he’s collected so far leads all AL outfielders, two ahead of the Angels’ Torii Hunter.

If his resurgence continues he’s certain to have his best year since 2006 and after last year’s disaster he could be inline for Comeback Player of the Year. In the meantime, Wells has pushed himself to the top of the pile amongst AL outfielders and Cito is absolutely correct to recommend him for the All-Star game.

Jose Bautista

Despite being second in the AL in home runs with 18, trailing Miguel Cabrera by a single homer, Bautista’s case is a bit more complicated. The main problem for his candidacy, as much as it helps his team, is that Bautista has split his time almost evenly between third base and right field. That leaves the task of deciding whom to compare his numbers to and double the competition as well.

Bautista’s .232 batting average doesn’t help him much either as far as traditional stats go. But his power can’t be ignored either he leads the league in isolated power and stands fourteenth in wOBA at .389. He’s also largely offset the low batting average by walking in 15.4 percent of his plate appearances, third best in the AL.

At third base Bautista will have to contend with Evan Longoria, Michael Young and even the resurgent Adrian Beltre. The outfield is littered with competition including his teammate, Wells and former teammate Alex Rios. Gaston certainly enjoys Bautista’s versatility but that same versatility will likely cost him a spot on the AL squad.

Ricky Romero

Romero has improved in every way possible over his rookie campaign in 2009. In thirteen starts this season he has established himself as the ace of a Blue Jays staff that has shown both excellent results and hope for the future. The lefty has used an improved ability to strikeout batters to compliment his outstanding groundball generating ability. At the same time he’s limited the heavy damage that comes from serving up homers and cut back on his walks from a year ago.

While he’s just fifteenth among AL starters in ERA at 3.29, he stands fifth in FIP with a mark of 3.15. Romero is fifth in strikeouts per nine at 9.07 and ninth in homers allowed per nine at just .60. His 55.6 percent groundball rate is third best among AL starters. Topping it all off for Romero, he’s generates more swings and misses than any AL starter besides Francisco Liriano.

If the Blue Jays send one pitcher to the All-Star game in Anaheim, it has to be Romero.

Shaun Marcum

Not far behind Romero, Marcum stands seventh amongst AL starters with a 3.24 FIP. Marcum has made up for his so-so 6.86 K/9 IN with impeccable control. His 1.90 walks per nine innings is sixth best in the AL and his .63 HR/9 IN is eleventh. Marcum’s change-up has been the best in the AL worth a full 10.6 runs above average.

Marcum’s ERA at 3.38 is just seventeenth in the AL amongst starters. That, despite the fact his FIP is better than ten of the pitchers with a better ERA, will probably erase almost any chance he has of making the team. Romero making the team would probably also hurt Marcum’s chances. Even though he most likely won’t make it, he’s pitched well enough for a bid.

Brett Cecil

Quickly emerging as one of the Jays’ best arms the twenty-three year old Cecil joins Romero and Marcum in the top ten amongst AL starters in FIP. His 3.40 FIP is tenth and well ahead of both Clay Bucholz and Brandon Morrow at 3.59. Like Marcum, he doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts setting down 6.58 per nine innings. He gets by with solid control walking just 2.24 batters per nine innings. He also cut his home run rate by more than half going from 1.64 HR/9 IN in ’09 down to just .70.

His 3.22 ERA is good for eleventh amongst AL starters. All four of his pitches have been above average including the league’s fifth most valuable change-up that’s been worth 7.4 runs above average. 

Despite his excellent season to date Cecil’s first All-Star bid will have to wait. With his drastic improvement from last season to this one he might make the team as soon as next year. Cecil’s performance isn’t the problem, he’s last among qualified AL starters in innings with 64 1/3. That’s no fault of his own as he’s only made ten starts where as most qualified starters have at least a dozen or more.

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After Roy Halladay was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies, fantasy baseball owners believed the only Toronto Blue Jays worth having were Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. Turns out there are a few other Jays not only worth owning, but that are better than those two.     

It is as if Coors Field has been rebuilt in Toronto. Sure, the Rogers Centre (A.K.A. SkyDome) has also been known as a hitter’s haven, but never like this season.  Somehow average-at-best (and that is being kind) part-time players with .230 batting averages for other teams in their careers have suddenly morphed into powerful sluggers you don’t want to throw 2-0 fastballs to. Either the air is getting thinner inside the Rogers Centre, or Harry Potter has conjured up a spell that is magically guiding Toronto’s fly balls over the fence.       

Here are the Blue Jays that have turned into fantasy heroes after spending the last couple years as fantasy zeroes:

Jose Bautista

This guy is leading the majors in home runs? No, couldn’t be. Let me adjust my glasses. Well, call me George Brett and put pine tar on my bat! Bautista and his 18 dingers are indeed ahead of Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and everyone else in the sport.  

Bautista leading any major offensive category two months into the season is almost as shocking as Al and Tipper Gore’s separation. He has never brought many redeeming fantasy qualities to the table during his eight-year career.  

Most homers in a season? 16, which Bautista has already surpassed without breaking a sweat. Most RBI? 63, and he already has more than two-thirds of that now in only one-third of a season. His best batting average? .254, so Joe Mauer has one less person to worry about coming after his batting crown considering Bautista is only presently hitting .243.

Bautista has not suffered through one prolonged power slump yet, even though his uppercut swing has holes in it and he still chases breaking balls in the dirt like a greyhound chases mechanical rabbits. He may strike out like Mark Reynolds, but now he hits homers like Reynolds does, too.
       
We will all wake up from this dream very soon.  Bautista must have overdosed on four-leaf clovers last St. Patrick’s Day or something.  He might finish with 30 homers and 90 RBI at season’s end, but to think he will keep this pace up is plain crazy. He is the ultimate sell-high candidate if there ever was one.  

John Buck

The Kansas City Royals, not known for their intelligent personnel decisions (Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs? Multi-millions for Jose Guillen and Gil Meche?), looked smart for a change in the off-season when they cut bait on Buck, who had worn out his welcome because of his low batting averages and lower on-base percentages.

Buck has always had pop in his bat, though. He hit 70 home runs in six seasons with the Royals. Of course, only fantasy owners noticed, and even they did not care much since his constant 0-for-4 games would deflate the value of his taters.     

The homers are coming faster and more furious this season for Buck with him catching for Toronto, though. The veteran backstop has nine homers and 30 RBI in just 49 games, so he is well on his way to obliterating his previous career-highs in both statistics. And his batting average is .255, which might be terrible for many players but for Buck is the equivalent of hitting .300.    

Buck’s track record suggests that he will not keep up this Darren Daulton routine much longer. An 0-for-the-week is on the horizon that plummets his average 20 points. So trading him now when his value is higher than the summit at Mount Everest would be an optimal idea unless you have no other options behind the plate or if you have faith he can actually finish with 25 homers and 75 RBI.

Alex Gonazlez

Toronto has always had a thing for shortstops named Alex Gonzalez. Now the second shortstop with that name to man the position for the Jays this decade has been providing more pop than a general store from the 1950’s.  

Gonzalez, known more for his golden glove and his cannon arm than his home run prowess, has been slugging like he is Brady Anderson circa 1996. A-Gon has 12 homers and 33 RBI in 57 games. To put this in perspective, he has only broken the 70-RBI plateau twice and the 20-HR barrier once since entering the majors in 1998, so to say this was unexpected is like saying a few extra people watched Stephen Strasburg’s first big-league start.  

Gonzalez does not walk, does not steal, and does not hit for a high average. Homers and RBI are all he is good for in fantasy circles. Can he keep up the good work? Every other Blue Jay has been blasting homers regularly since Opening Day, so why can’t he?  Because he is a shortstop and because he has a slightly better resume than Bautista and Buck, I would not be against holding onto him, especially in AL-only leagues where homer-hitting shortstops are scarce.              

Brett Cecil

I’ll bet Pacman Jones, Howie Mandel, and John Cena’s names were mentioned at more fantasy drafts in March than Cecil’s. Only 16-team, AL-only leagues would have brought Cecil up for discussion. You cannot blame fantasy owners for not thinking about him on Draft Day. Cecil posted a 5.30 ERA and 1.65 WHIP during his rookie campaign and was no lock to make the 2010 rotation.

Yet Cecil has worked as many wonders as televangelist Benny Hinn during the opening third of the schedule. He has mixed his pitches perfectly, keeping righties off-kilter with his combination of fastballs and breaking balls, while totally shutting down lefthanded hitters (.143 batting average). Cecil is 6-2 with a 3.43 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a growing fantasy fan base with every quality start he has.    

And this is just the tip of the iceberg in the hero department for the Blue Jays. Vernon Wells, whose body looked shot the past two seasons, is a fantasy stud again (15 homers, 40 RBI). Edwin Encarnacion has been pounding balls over the fence—when he has made contact (eight HR in 90 AB). And Shawn Marcum has valiantly returned from another arm injury to pitch like an ace (5-3, 3.38). 

I am not sure who deserves all the credit for all of these amazing performances. Maybe the coaching staff. Maybe the ballpark. Maybe the strength and conditioning coach.  Maybe the fantasy baseball gods. Maybe the bat boy. Or I guess the players themselves deserve some kudos. Whatever the case, many players are having special seasons north of the border, and fantasy owners are benefiting big time.

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