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The St. Louis Cardinals were tabbed by Baseball America in 2013 as the top minor league system in Major League Baseball. That marked a massive turnaround for an organization that had been consistently ranked near the bottom over the past 15 years.

But even without national acclaim, the Cards won. They benefited from quality over quantity, as players like Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina emerged into stars. When St. Louis won World Series titles in ‘06 and ‘11, Baseball America ranked the farm system 21st and 24th, respectively.

Now the Cardinals own a thriving talent base that is capable of sustaining big league success for the foreseeable future. Last season, a league-best 27 players that were drafted by St. Louis helped lead the Redbirds to their eighth National League Championship Series appearance since 2000.

On the list for the Cardinals’ top 10 prospects to start the 2014 season is a diverse mix of big-time bats and impact arms. This list will focus on players without MLB experience and puts added weight for those who are closer to being MLB-ready.

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The St. Louis Cardinals have always reveled in the underdog role.

They were the underdog against the Texas Rangers in the 2011 World Series. They were the underdog against the Los Angeles Dodgers in last year’s playoffs. They’ve been the underdog against just about everyone in past Octobers.

Except for this year.

Before a single pitch has been thrown (as Mike Matheny will remind you), the expectations are high for the 2014 Cardinals.

Matheny’s not a fan of talking expectations. Of course, neither is anyone else in MLB. While veteran players and front office personnel might be able to put those expectations aside, it’s not always so easy for young players.

“We like our chances just as much as anybody else, but to start making bold statements and predictions is really not wise,” Matheny said. “At this point, we’ve got to play the game.”

And the game starts now.

Whether they fully live up to those expectations, Matheny believes in playing every game like it’s your last—regardless of how much or how little is expected of you.

“It doesn’t matter the expectations and it doesn’t matter what people are saying,” Matheny said. “It’s a lot of talk and it gets you nowhere.”

They don’t talk about it regularly, but Matheny said he makes it clear to his players that the expectations and predictions for this team are just talk and nothing more.

“We have things that are said about us—compliments is what they are—but these guys have gone about their business the right way,” Matheny said.

While the team looks good on paper, that means nothing until it’s translated into on-field production. Just because a group of guys look good together statistically doesn’t make them winners.

Matheny is quick to point this out.

“People in this business understand we have talent, but talent has to come together as a team,” he said. “You’ve got to form the right kind of clubhouse and the right kind of play on the field.

“All of the speculation in the world gets you no runs. It doesn’t get you any outs from the mound either.”

Despite all of the hype and the need to play it down, Matheny understands why this team is drawing so much attention. Aside from the numbers, he feels he has a group of guys who all understand the importance of putting in their time.

“They go about it the right way,” he said. “They realize there’s a short window of opportunity in this game and they don’t want to lose any of those opportunities. They’re ready.”

It’s also important to remember that teams require change throughout the year. Whether it’s minor league call-ups or major league trades, more often than not a team looks different at game 162 than it did at game one.

General manager John Mozeliak knows that even with the best of teams, adjustments are usually required.

He thinks it’s a matter of “learning the DNA” of a particular team.

“We’re not perfect on day one and we know that,” Mozeliak said. “Our rotation looks stable, our everyday core players look solid. In terms of what we may have to go get at some point, we don’t know, but we know it will probably be something.

For now, as the Cardinals prepare for the season opener in Cincinnati, all they’re thinking about is getting back to baseball.

“It’s fun because now we get to go out there and actually see what we’ve got,” Matheny said.

—

All quotes obtained firsthand by the author.

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The St. Louis Cardinals have a reputation for getting the most out of their players, especially rookies.

Last year the team’s World Series roster was comprised of 18 homegrown players (those drafted or signed by the organization), including six rookie pitchers who combined to post a 2.74 ERA with 451 strikeouts in 443.1 innings during the regular season (6.5 fWAR). Of those 18 players, five were holdovers from the Cardinals’ 2011 World Series-winning team. 

Even after graduating impact prospects such as Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Michael Wacha to the major leagues, the organization is expected to receive significant contributions from more young players this season, namely Carlos Martinez and Kolten Wong. 

Both Martinez and Wong received a taste of the major leagues in late 2013, but neither player truly capitalized on his playing time and at times appeared overexposed in their respective roles. However, both players are now considered locks for the Opening Day roster after strong performances in spring training, which means we’ll soon find out what they’re capable of, individually and collectively, over a full season in the major leagues.

Kolten Wong

After trading third baseman David Freese during the offseason and shifting Matt Carpenter to the hot corner, rookie Kolten Wong entered spring training as the favorite to become the team’s Opening Day second baseman.

However, the organization couldn’t afford to take any chances after Wong batted .153/.194/.169 in 62 plate appearances last year in the major leagues, and so it signed veteran infielder Mark Ellis as a safety net. Basically, the Cardinals put Wong in a situation where the position would be his to lose.

Wong got off to a slow start this spring, going hitless through his first five games, which seemingly concerned everyone but manager Mike Matheny, per Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

I think we’d all rather get off to a good start than a bad one. But I think Kolten is going to be one of those guys that just trusts himself and his ability and not get too high or too low. I think there’s a lot to be seen about how he handles it when things don’t go his way. We’re constantly watching that as well with all these guys.

He’s a talented player and we’ll continue to give him some at-bats and some opportunities out there, and he’s going to be just fine. He looks good this spring.

Since then, Wong has been playing like a guy who wants the Opening Day gig, as he’s batting .500 (18-for-36) with five doubles, two home runs and nine RBI in his last 12 games. Overall, the 23-year-old is batting .391/.451/.674 through 17 games.

Wong won’t come close to matching Matt Carpenter’s value last season at second base (7.0 WAR), but the Cardinals still stand to improve by employing him at the keystone and Carpenter at third.

David Freese had a dismal 0.2 WAR last season in 138 games as the Cardinals third baseman, but he was a four-win player the previous year. Carpenter will lose value offensively this season moving to the hot corner and projects for a 4.8 WAR year, per Oliver, and the same model calls for a 2.4 WAR season from Wong.

Therefore, the Cardinals, in theory, should be no worse off with Carpenter and Wong compared to Carpenter and Freese. It also leaves room for both players to overachieve in future seasons—as so many young Cardinal players tend to do—which is very, very possible considering their ages (28 and 23, respectively) and relative lack of professional experience. 

The aforementioned projection for Wong suggests he’ll bat .255/.307/.364 with 68 runs, 37 extra-base hits (nine home runs) and 18 stolen bases in 600 plate appearances. However, if he receives most of his at-bats against right-handed pitching (with Ellis getting playing time against lefties), then the triple-slash line should be better than expected, especially in the batting average and on-base percentage departments.  

Carlos Martinez 

Carlos Martinez struggled to find a role following his big league debut on May 3, as he was used sparingly out of the bullpen and bounced between the minor and major leagues as the organization pondered how to best utilize the 22-year-old.

By the end of the regular season, though, the flame-throwing right-hander emerged as manager Mike Matheny‘s preferred option in the late innings and ultimately served as the team’s setup man throughout the postseason.

The decision to use Martinez as a starter shouldn’t come as a surprise. Since entering the Cardinals system in 2010, the right-hander has pitched in 68 minor league games and started all but one of them. During that span, he posted a 2.69 ERA with 340 strikeouts and a 2.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 327.2 innings.

Martinez did everything in his power this spring to win a spot in the starting rotation, as he easily was the most impressive of the team’s starters and arguably one of the best across the league. Making four starts on the spring, the 22-year-old registered a 1.76 ERA with nine strikeouts in 15.1 innings.

However, the Cardinals ultimately elected to go with Joe Kelly as their fifth starter based on his success the previous year and overall experience, which means that Martinez, in spite of his eye-opening performance this spring, will begin the season in the bullpen.

Martinez offered a glimpse of his potential in the role last October, when he registered a 3.55 ERA and .167 opponents’ batting average with three walks and 11 strikeouts in 12.2 innings spanning the Cardinals’ three playoff series.

As I highlighted in a previous article, Martinez’s overwhelming success during the postseason stemmed from two adjustments: moving toward the first-base side of the rubber and lowering his arm angle slightly. The moves enabled the right-hander to locate and execute his sinker-slider combination more consistently—a trend that has carried over into the spring. 

Though he won’t open the season in the Cardinals rotation, Martinez was stretched out enough this spring that he’ll be able to assume a spot should a member of the staff suffer an injury. And if that occurs, I doubt the organization will mind offering Martinez a legitimate audition as a big league starter.

*All stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

*All videos courtesy of MLB.com (MLB Advanced Media).

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The team St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny plans to take north to Cincinnati for Opening Day is almost set.

Aside from determining the final bullpen spot, the last week in Jupiter, Fla., is used for rotation positioning, lineup tinkering and ensuring the starters are ready for the 162-game grind.

It’s also a time to reflect on the spring training and what players made the most—and least—of their time in Cards camp.

Winners

Kolten Wong

Kolten Wong found his confidence in camp and left little doubt he deserves to be the starting second baseman on March 31. He batted .372 with a 1.100 OPS, hit two homers and displayed outstanding defense.

“(Wong) has answered a lot of questions,” Matheny explained to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “He’s really done a nice job of taking advantage of the opportunity.”

Matheny has used Wong throughout the lineup, even batting the rookie second. While short on the pop the Cardinals are accustomed to getting from that spot, his speed would be intriguing behind Matt Carpenter.

Peter Bourjos

Peter Bourjos’ defensive reputation gave him the edge over incumbent center fielder Jon Jay heading into camp. Having a far superior spring offensively, in addition to reinforcing his brilliant glove work, makes him the clear starter.

Bourjos told Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com that he hopes to continue to get love for more than just his glove:

The last few years have been tough. I may not be a .330 hitter, but I’m definitely better than people give me credit for. One of your buddies will show you an article, and it’s really nice about the defensive stuff and not so much the offensive stuff. It’s one thing I’ve been striving for, to become a better hitter and prove people wrong.

Bourjos had his customary strikeout issues, but he drew some walks and showed off his speed. That ability will help even batting near the bottom of the order. It also overcomes range deficiencies from corner outfielders Matt Holliday and Allen Craig.

Pat Neshek

To make the club, Pat Neshek not only had to pitch well, he also needed a break.

Jaime Garcia’s bum left shoulder and Jason Motte’s slowed rehab left two spots open in the bullpen. Neshek claimed one vacancy by posting a 3.38 ERA over eight innings.

Historically, Neshek is tough on righties and soft on lefties. But Matheny saw enough this spring to believe he’s more than a right-handed version of lefty specialist Randy Choate.

The submarine hurler won’t last long in relief, though, if he can’t continue to hold his own against southpaws. Motte’s May return date and Jorge Rondon’s strong spring put extra pressure on Neshek to deliver early.

Joe Kelly

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. That’s the case with Joe Kelly, who had a forgettable spring while being thoroughly outpitched by Carlos Martinez in the supposed fifth-starter battle.

Despite those numbers, Kelly earns the last place in the rotation. That hints at Matheny‘s desire all along to have Martinez in the eighth inning. Kelly’s effectiveness as a starter down the stretch last season for the Cardinals also carried some weight with the skipper.

If Motte can move back into a late-inning relief role in the first couple of months, Martinez could bump Kelly back to his usual long-relief slot.

Losers

Jon Jay

Jay wasn’t going to be the better glove man in center for the Cards. So he had to have a superior spring offensively in order to earn a platoon with Bourjos.

Posting a disappointing .167 average cemented Bourjos’ starter status and left Jay moving around the outfield in an attempt to boost his value.

Jay’s roster spot isn’t in jeopardy, but his playing time could be significantly cut. As long as Bourjos holds his own with the bat while displaying stellar defense, he’ll be on the bench most nights.

Oscar Taveras

Oscar Taveras presumably was healthy and ready to make a case for a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Except that he wasn’t.

The Cardinals’ young stallion stumbled out of the starting gate, strutted his stuff briefly, then pulled up lame. Now Taveras will get the chance to regain his stud status in Triple-A Memphis.

Taveras’ mettle will be tested in the minors after the luster from this star prospect was tarnished. The front office will find out early how he copes with the disappointment, particularly with fellow outfield prospects Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty leaving positive impressions with Matheny and Co.

Jaime Garcia

Garcia will start the 2014 season the same way he ended 2013: on the disabled list.

The lefty’s throwing shoulder acted up early in spring training, prompting the team to shut him down and look for alternatives in the rotation.

The season—and career—for Garcia will come down to his ability to pitch with discomfort. Pain, he says, he’s always dealt with on some level in his shoulder and elbow.

“It’s always been my elbow,” Garcia told Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “It’s part of my career. The 2010 season is probably the best I’ve ever felt.

“My goal is to be ready to go. It could be a month. It could be… who knows?”

Soon, Garcia will get back on a mound on some back field and throw for a handful of on-lookers. But it’s anyone’s guess when he’ll take the ball again in front of thousands in St. Louis.

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The St. Louis Cardinals came to spring training with very few roster decisions to make.  Most of those decisions have been reached in the last few days. 

Kolten Wong appears to be the starting second baseman, Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos will share time in center field, Joe Kelly will be the fifth starter, Carlos Martinez will serve as the eighth-inning reliever and Pat Neshek has seemingly made the club.  That leaves only one decision to be made: Which pitcher will join the bullpen as the seventh reliever?

The competition comes down to three young hopefuls: Jorge Rondon, Scott McGregor and Keith Butler.  Those three arms head into the final week of spring training hoping to win a spot on the roster of players heading north to Cincinnati for Opening Day.

Butler is the known commodity of the group, having pitched 20 innings over 16 games for the Cardinals in 2013.  His performance was far from dominant, walking 11 hitters while striking out 16, but it is enough to earn him consideration yet again.  

His spring performance does not look that great either, having thrown just over eight innings and surrendering eight runs.  His five walks this spring may raise a flag concerning control.  His minor league stats from 2013 do not seem to suggest it is a long term problem, as he only walked 11 hitters over 41 innings.

Rondon is another in the long line of power arms the Cardinals seem to be able to produce from their farm system.  The difference with him is that he may not have full control over the lively stuff he pushes across the plate.  He has only walked three hitters this spring while striking out seven.  

Perhaps most telling is the fact that Rondon has yet to surrender a run.  Rondon did pitch in Memphis last season and did well despite the control issues he faced.  In just under 68 innings, he walked 37 hitters while striking out 42.  He may need a little more time in the minors to prove he has his control settled before making the team.

Manager Mike Matheny shared his thoughts on Rondon with Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

With Rondon, you’re looking at stuff and someone who has improved.  We gave him a task of pounding the strike zone and simplifying his approach. He’s done well and seen some results.

The long shot of the group is McGregor, who is a non-roster invitee to camp.  His four innings over three games this spring have yielded three runs, two walks and a pair of strikeouts.  McGregor spent 2013 as a starter in the Cardinals’ minor leagues and is seemingly being looked at as a long relief option.  

While he struggles for consistency as well as playing time, his placement on the team would also require a subsequent roster move to make room on the 40-man.  

Rondon and McGregor may have taken advantage of the situation to get their names in the minds of those in charge.  Unfortunately, it may come down to experience and the product Matheny already knows.

The final relief position likely belongs to Butler unless something goes horribly wrong.

Statistics courtesy of MLB.com and current through 3/24/14.

Bill Ivie is the founder of i70baseball.com.
Follow him on Twitter to discuss all things baseball throughout the season.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Trade rumors begin to swirl as spring training nears completion in Major League Baseball.  As Opening Day draws near, teams begin to identify their needs as well as their surpluses.  The St. Louis Cardinals, who have found themselves actively involved in the market for shortstops around the league over the last few seasons, suddenly find themselves with a player to offer to the market.

Pete Kozma is the odd man out in St. Louis, and general manager John Mozeliak hopes to benefit from that.

According to Adam Rubin of ESPN, the Cardinals have been shopping Kozma around the league, letting other teams know that the young shortstop is available:

#StLCards making Pete Kozma available, but don’t believe #Mets are interested. Not really upgrade from Ruben Tejada.

— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) March 20, 2014

The reasons for trade rumors surrounding Kozma are obvious.  The Cardinals signed Jhonny Peralta during the offseason, Daniel Descalso offers a backup option who can play multiple positions and the team needs the room on the 40-man roster.  

All of this could lead to a trade for a low-level prospect in exchange for the man who played 143 games for the Cardinals last season.

Joe Strauss of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out another need that the Cardinals may wish to address with the rumored trade of Kozma based on the recent reassignment of relief pitcher Tyler Lyons.

“The Cardinals can option Kozma or keep him as Peralta’s backup. Having optioned Tyler Lyons to Memphis on Wednesday, the club could survey the market for long relief. No obvious internal candidate currently exists,” according to Strauss.

That option would not alleviate the roster restriction that exists but is a fair trade rumor as it fulfills both the team’s need and surplus at the same time.  The argument against a long reliever in return is based more on the value that Kozma holds.  

Ben Humphrey of Viva El Birdos breaks down the value of Kozma on the market and what fans should expect in return.  Ultimately, Humphrey comes to the conclusion that a trade involving Kozma would likely resemble the trade of Brendan Ryan in December of 2010.  In that trade, the Cardinals received relief pitcher Maikel Cleto, a low-level prospect with a lively arm.

The Cardinals will do their due diligence in shopping Kozma around to see if there is a trade that makes sense.  If the past can tell us anything, it is that Mozeliak will only move Kozma if he feels that the Cardinals will clearly benefit from the return.

Meanwhile, the trade rumors will continue to circulate.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.

Bill Ivie is the founder of i70baseball.com.
Follow him on Twitter to discuss all things baseball throughout the season.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Spring training offers a preview of what the 2014 season holds for the teams around Major League Baseball.  It also gives a glimpse of the future of the organizations as prospects take the field and show off their talents in front of the big league coaching staffs.

The Cardinals have their share of prospects, and the folks over at Cardinals Farm do a great job of keeping fans up to date on the various players and their production.  Recently, they identified the top prospects in the organization.  Their top five were as follows:

1. Oscar Taveras
2. Carlos Martinez
3. Kolten Wong
4. Stephen Piscotty
5. Marco Gonzales

With that in mind, it is time to grade each of those prospects on their production to this point in spring training.  As Opening Day draws near, the report cards are starting to be handed out.

Let’s take a look and see who’s making the grade.

Statistics courtesy of MLB.com and are current through March 17 unless otherwise noted.

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It’s been a revolving door at shortstop and second base for the St. Louis Cardinals for a decade. Yet, the lack of continuity at those positions hasn’t hindered on-field success. The Cards have reached four World Series and won two titles since 2004 while often employing a little more than utility players at each spot.

In 2014, the Redbirds will look to end the yearly duct-tape job up the middle by pairing rookie second baseman Kolten Wong with free agent shortstop Jhonny Peralta.

Peralta signed a four-year deal early in free agency. Around the same time, the Cardinals made a trade that essentially handed the starting job to Wong.

The Cardinals haven’t had the same second base/shortstop starting combination for consecutive years on Opening Day since Fernando Vina and Edgar Renteria shared the stage together from 2000-03.

How ironic that a franchise once blessed with cornerstone players up the middle in Tom Herr and Ozzie Smith would get by with stopgap options for so long.

Having two impact players in the middle of the diamond would be a welcome twist. Since 2008, Cesar Izturis, Khalil Greene, Brendan Ryan, Ryan Theriot, Rafael Furcal and Pete Kozma have started Opening Day at short.

Adam Kennedy, Ryan, Skip Schumaker (twice) and Daniel Descalso (twice) have received that same honor at second.

Not exactly Robinson Cano and Troy Tulowitzki.

In fairness, they haven’t been stiffs. Each one made an impact, especially in the postseason.

Whether it’s Kozma’s and Descalso’s timely hits in the 2012 National League Division Series, Schumaker’s double in Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS, or Furcal’s glove work in that same contest, they all played a role in St. Louis’ tremendous run of success.

Entering the offseason on the heels of a disappointing loss to the Boston Red Sox in the Fall Classic, shortstop was the only glaring weakness for a Cardinals squad loaded with talent and depth.

Kozma, even with his occasional heroics and stellar defense, wasn’t hitting enough to justify a full-time gig. Among National League shortstops with at least 300 at-bats last season, he ranked last with a .273 on-base percentage while slugging a hideous .548. As much as his defense was an asset, his bat was a greater detriment.

On too many nights, there were two automatic outs at the bottom of the Cards’ lineup.

So the St. Louis front office went shortstop shopping equipped with financial flexibility and a surplus of trade chips. Quickly turned off by an unappealing market, general manager John Mozeliak looked to the free agent class. Before Thanksgiving, he had his man, inking Peralta to a four-year, $52 million contract.

“We knew center field was very important, but the shortstop market on the other hand was one that was not deep in free agents,” Mozeliak told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com at the time of the signing. “There were really two being bantered about us. For us, it was really focusing on someone who could hit from the right side, somebody that was a steady defensive player, someone that had experience and could fit right in. We certainly explored the trade market at many levels, trying to see what we could do there, but the acquisition costs seemed very preventative for us to move forward with that.”

But Peralta would travel to St. Louis carrying more than just his consistent bat and solid glove. He brought along baggage in the form of the 50-game suspension he served last season with the Tigers as the result of Major League Baseball’s Biogenesis investigation.

Since signing with the Cardinals, Peralta has said all the right things. Teammates have given him a clean slate.

“I know a lot of fans are going to say a lot of things,” Peralta explained to Paul White of USA Today. “It’s baseball, man. You need to forget about it and play baseball. We’ll move forward and try to forget about it.”

Cards fans, widely regarded as the most respectful and knowledgeable in baseball, have embraced Peralta. The faithful who fill Busch Stadium nightly won’t ask for much, just an honest effort and respect for a team and game they love dearly.

It’s the perfect situation for Peralta. He’ll play for a perennial winner in a town where the fans will cut him some slack. He’ll get the benefit of the doubt. The past is in the past.

Peralta is a .268 career hitter who’s never hit fewer than 10 home runs in a full season. He has four campaigns of 20 or more homers to his credit—the last coming in 2011.

According to FanGraphs, Peralta had a UZR (Ultimate Zone Ranking) of 3.5 last season in Detroit. Kozma’s 6.7 UZR in 2013 speaks to his defensive brilliance, but it also illustrates how competent Peralta is with the glove.

Peralta’s presence gives the Cardinals their best all-around shortstop since Renteria left in 2005. His new double-play partner, the rookie from Hawaii, could give the Redbirds fans a dynamic tandem at second and short like they haven’t seen since the days of Herr and The Wizard.

Wong has plus skills across the board. Defense may be his calling card, but he also possesses great speed and some pop.

The ability Wong showed in the minors gave Mozeliak the confidence to deal hometown favorite David Freese to the Los Angeles Angels, allowing Matt Carpenter to slide from second to third.

Wong struggled to display any of those abilities during last season’s September call-up. He had the entire offseason to marinate on that embarrassing pickoff to end Game 4 of the World Series.

“I didn’t do anything to make people believe that I’m ready to be there. I know that,” Wong told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch before spring training. “All of the games, all of the time I had and I didn’t prove it to people that I’m ready. … That showed me that I had a lot of work left to do to be ready to compete. That’s what I’m doing. I want to make sure this time, going into spring, that’s not the case, that there’s not a question.”

Then in December, Wong had to deal with the passing of his mother, Keala Wong, who lost her long battle with cancer. He came to spring training in Jupiter adorned with a new tattoo to honor his mom.

“It’s something that I’m proud of,” Wong shared with Goold. “This means everything to me.”

Wong went to work, eager to prove he belonged in the big leagues. He was determined to earn the starting assignment rather than being the beneficiary of trade circumstances.

Since starting the Grapefruit League 0-for-10, Wong is one of the hottest hitter in spring training. He’s batting .565 since, with two homers and eight RBI.

A week after talk of Wong possibly starting the season in Triple-A, he’s cemented his place on the Opening Day roster.

Wong and Peralta will take the field side by side in Cincinnati for their first Opening Day together. The Cardinals hope it’s the start of something special.

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What is Trevor Rosenthal’s long-term role with the St. Louis Cardinals?

For 2014, the answer’s easy. Rosenthal will lock down the ninth. After securing the closer job late last season, he emerged as a late-inning force in the Cards’ playoff run.

But for 2015 and beyond, all bets are off. Or at least they should be. While Rosenthal enjoys closing, he’s stated in the past his desire to start. 

Early in spring training, Rosenthal talked about his situation with Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Starting would be a different challenge. Coming into the organization, I always kind of envisioned that being the end result.

The last time Rosenthal started, he was 8-6 with a 2.78 ERA in 94 innings for Double-A Springfield in 2012. Then he got the call to Triple-A, posting a 4.20 ERA in three starts.

In 2011, Rosenthal had his first taste as a regular in the starting rotation. He struck out 133 in 120 1/3 innings for Low-A Quad Cities. The 4.11 ERA wasn’t overly impressive until you factor in the shoddy defense behind him. According to Baseball Instinct, his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rate was 3.22.

Rosenthal had struggled in August, as the 7.12 ERA that month hinted at the strains of a workload over a full season. But he impressed the Cards’ front office during spring training in 2012, prompting St. Louis to bump its flame-throwing prospect to the Texas League.

The repertoire is there for Rosenthal to succeed in the rotation. The high-90s fastball is his calling card. The natural sinking action creates plenty of ground balls. The power slider is a great complement. And while he doesn’t use the changeup often in his current role, it was an improved offering during his time in the minors.

In a short period of time, Rosenthal has emerged as an elite closer. And considering the club’s starting depth, it’s a no-brainer to keep him planted in the ninth inning this season. However, pitchers with this type of arm don’t grow on trees. It would behoove the Cardinals to find out if he could translate his success to the rotation.

Winning in today’s game has become more reliant on a strong bullpen. Still, 200 quality innings from a starter offers more value than 70 innings of relief, no matter how dominant.

Jason Motte’s return from Tommy John surgery could factor in Rosenthal’s future. He established himself as a stopper by saving 42 games for the Cardinals in 2012 after excelling in October for a World Series winner in 2011.

Motte’s a free agent after the season. It’s doubtful he’d re-up with the Redbirds as a set-up man knowing the money available on the open market.

Every year, the role is a revolving door. Teams are finding success without a mainstay in place.

Tampa Bay has won 90 or more games in four straight seasons using three different closers.

Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel is the only pitcher to save at least 30 games for the same team the last three seasons. The four teams in the last two Fall Classics each utilized different closers from the pitchers who started the season.

Veteran reliever Edward Mujica had four career saves before knocking out 37 for the Redbirds last season.

Then there’s the money factor.

Teams are increasingly reluctant to pay big dollars for closers. The Orioles decided to trade Jim Johnson, who had back-to-back 50-save seasons, rather than pay the arbitration-eligible right-hander a salary close to $10 million.

Rosenthal may never cash in on big-time starter money like Clayton Kershaw. But even average big-league starters are garnering $15 million or more per season in the current market.

Kimbrel, arguably the game’s top stopper, signed a four-year, $42 million extension. His biggest payday will come in 2017 when he’ll make $13 million. The Cubs are paying Edwin Jackson $11 million, and his ERA was barely under 5.00 last season.

I’m sure Rosenthal is well aware of the discrepancy.

It’s understandable to ask where Rosenthal fits into a St. Louis rotation filled with established young arms and a bevy of intriguing prospects on the way.

Adam Wainwright is signed through 2018. Of Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller, Lynn is the closest to free agency, but that won’t come until 2018. Carlos Martinez could be ready to graduate to the rotation. Jaime Garcia, Tyler Lyons, Joe Kelly, Marco Gonzales and Tim Cooney also are in the mix.

So why mess with a good thing?

Rosenthal could fizzle as a starter. He could get injured. Maybe he’d tire after a few innings, lose velocity. Those issues contributed to former Cardinals reliever Todd Worrell moving to the bullpen in the ‘80s. He excelled there.

Rosenthal already is thriving as a closer. But just imagine what he could become as a starter.

You’ll never know until you try.

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The defending National League champion St. Louis Cardinals entered spring training with very few position battles.  Manager Mike Matheny has a lineup full of consistent, proven players at almost every position.  

Predicting the lineup for the team is not entirely difficult, though there are a few positions that will remain in flux.  Players may fill a few different lineup spots depending on other starters that day or the opponent’s starting pitcher.  It is a popular subject this time of year, as evidenced by the United Cardinal Bloggers and their recent responses to a roundtable question posed by Ben Chambers of The View From Here asking them to predict the lineup themselves.

Ultimately, the lineup will not vary greatly.  The impressive part may be just how solid the lineup is every day.

The best way to look at the lineup may be to break it down into pieces.  The leadoff spot, the “two-hole”, the middle of the order and the bottom of the order.  Looking at each one individually will give a good examination of just what the Cardinals have to offer in 2014.

All statistics are from Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.

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