Kuzul

The decision by the St. Louis Cardinals front office to grant an extension to Matt Carpenter was the next step by John Mozeliak to solidify the team’s core for the next few years.

According to Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com, the deal will make Carpenter a Cardinal through 2019 with an option for 2010, and it costs the team a total of $52 million.

The signing shows that the team sees Carpenter as a key part of the squad’s nucleus for years to come. He joins Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, Yadier Molina and Allen Craig as the only Cardinals locked up through 2016 or later.

That’s good company—especially for a player many doubted could handle second base in 2013. How did that work out again?

During the press conference announcing the deal, Bill Dewitt Jr. made reference to the fact that he would like to see Carpenter finish his career as a Cardinal. The decision to buy out a lock year, all three arbitration years and his first two years of free-agent eligibility is a step in the right direction. It shows that the Cardinals don’t believe what Carpenter accomplished in 2013 is a fluke and that they think the young man from Texas is, in fact, the real deal.

There are plenty of other reasons that it made sense for the Cardinals to lock up Carpenter early.

Here are a few thoughts.

*All stats are courtesy Baseball Reference and Cot’s Baseball Contracts as of March 8, 2014.

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The most valuable player on the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals wasn’t Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday or Allen Craig. Instead, second baseman Matt Carpenter, in what was his first full season in the majors, led the eventual NL champions with a 6.6 WAR.

Regardless of your definition of value—using old-school or new-school numbers—the Cardinals are wise to award a contract extension to one of the best offensive players in baseball.

In a negotiation first reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and later confirmed by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Cardinals and Carpenter have agreed to a long-term deal to buy out arbitration and free-agent seasons for the 28-year-old infielder.

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the six-year deal will be worth $52 million and break down as follows:  

As Heyman pointed out, the Atlanta Braves‘ Andrelton Simmons can be used as a contract comparison for St. Louis’ latest long-term commitment. Both have similar service time and posted WAR marks above 6.0 in 2013. Yet due to the nature of their respective games, the comparisons should end there.

Simmons was paid because of outstanding defensive ability. Carpenter’s value is a no-brainer to the Cardinals because of a wide-ranging offensive skill set that could set the table in the lineup for years to come. 

Last year, Carpenter posted a .392 on-base percentage while serving as St. Louis’ primary top-of-the-lineup hitter. That mark was good enough for 12th in baseball, ahead of names (subscription required) such as Troy Tulowitzki, Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia. 

Along the path to that stellar OBP, Carpenter led the NL in hits (199), runs (126) and doubles (55). Those numbers—and stature atop league leaderboards—are impressive on the surface. When digging deeper, they become special.

Across the history of baseball, only eight infielders have posted individual seasons of at least 125 runs, 50 doubles and 190 hits. Alone, those numbers aren’t anything more than very good. Together, they form a rare combination that’s been achieved by some of the best players to ever step on a field. 

Outside of Odell Hale, that chart is comprised of players already enshrined in Cooperstown (Lou Gehrig, Charlie Gehringer), a borderline great (Todd Helton) and two of the greatest players of the past generation (Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez).

Referring to Carpenter as an infielder, rather than a third baseman, is key to determining his value both in the present and future.

To be fair, much of Carpenter’s worth in 2013 was derived from playing second base. In 2014, he’ll move to third base—his natural defensive position—potentially dampening his offensive dominance among his peers.

For what it’s worth, the Cardinals’ versatile infielder thinks the move back to third base will allow him to focus most of his attention on a burgeoning offensive game, per Chuck King of The Associated Press (via Yahoo! Sports).

“It’s nice to be able to come in and focus on your offense — not necessarily that you don’t think about defense, but you are not trying to learn a new spot,” Carpenter said.

The hot corner tends to be more of a power position, littered with middle-of-the-order bats like Adrian Beltre, Josh Donaldson and Pedro Alvarez. In the midst of a breakout offensive season, Carpenter only hit 11 home runs. On the surface, his lack of power could be thought of as a detriment to playing third base as a full-time position. 

Yet as forward-thinking baseball fans know, offensive value and slugging percentage isn’t based solely on raw power or the ability to hit the ball over the outfield fence.

As noted, Carpenter gets on base at a high clip. Regardless of position, a .392 on-base percentage will rank near the top of any list.

Yet despite only hitting 11 home runs, Carpenter provided 73 extra-base hits for the Cardinals lineup last summer. The 55 doubles and seven triples combined to form an excellent .481 slugging percentage for the soon-to-be third baseman. 

To put that into perspective, the average third baseman posted a .411 slugging percentage in 2013, per ESPN. Carpenter may not hit 30 home runs or post a slugging percentage of over .500, but he did smash 73 extra-base hits and accepted 70 walks.

Despite the excellence and offensive firepower throughout baseball in 2014, the combination of walk rate and extra-base-hit prowess is rare.

When looking deeper into last year’s third base crop, only two players achieved as much success with plate discipline and extra-base power: Miguel Cabrera and Evan Longoria.

Absent from that short list (subscription required): David Wright, Beltre, Donaldson, Ryan Zimmerman and Chase Headley. 

Over the years, the Cardinals have shown loyalty to homegrown success stories. From Molina to Wainwright to Craig, St. Louis’ front office hasn’t been shy about handing out lucrative, long-term deals to players cultivated in the system. 

It’s fair to wonder if 2013 was simply a career year at the right time for Carpenter, if he can develop 20-plus home run power or if his early 30s will feature a decline as his salary inflates.

But the Cardinals also deserve the benefit of the doubt for recognizing the offensive star they have in their infield, regardless of position.

If Matt Carpenter took his talent to the open market, this deal wouldn’t come close to the top offer received by his agent. For that number, the Cardinals could have a star for the next six seasons.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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One of the more intriguing position battles of the spring is taking place in St. Louis Cardinals camp where Joe Kelly, who went 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA in 15 starts last season, is trying to hold off talented 22-year-old rookie Carlos Martinez for the last spot in the starting rotation. 

If you’re wondering why the 25-year-old Kelly isn’t being guaranteed a spot after his successful rotation stint, keep in mind that Lance Lynn, who is 33-17 with a 3.88 ERA over the past two seasons, was also expected to be part of the battle for the last spot until soreness in Jaime Garcia’s surgically-repaired shoulder—the lefty is expected to start the season on the disabled list—appeared to have cleared a path for him. But even now, Lynn should probably be looking over his shoulder.

The Cardinals have one of the deepest pitching staffs in baseball, and this heated battle for a rotation spot is simply one of those “good problems” that talented and successful teams often come across.

Whoever loses this competition is still likely to fill a key role in the bullpen—Kelly has a 3.25 ERA with 14 walks and 49 strikeouts in 52.2 big league innings as a reliever; Martinez had a few rough outings in relief during the regular season but finished strong and became the team’s primary setup man for closer Trevor Rosenthal throughout the playoffs—though the rotation is where they are hoping to find themselves at the start of the season. 

Tale of the Tape

Joe Kelly 

While he is clearly the safe pick and was entrusted with four postseason starts last season, Kelly isn’t being anointed the No. 5 starter early in camp because of Martinez’s huge upside and what he is capable of doing if he proves that he’s ready to be a big league starter.

Even if the organization is leaning toward Kelly in the rotation and Martinez in the ‘pen, it doesn’t hurt to stretch Martinez out in camp and at least give him an opportunity to win the job.

There is a significant upside, however, in keeping Martinez in a relief role for at least another season, which should work in Kelly’s favor. While Kelly’s strikeout rate is drastically better out of the bullpen—he has a 5.3 K/9 in 178.1 big league innings as a starter and an 8.4 K/9 in 52.2 big league innings as a reliever—he’s not viewed as the type of lights-out eighth-inning setup man that Martinez can be.

As a starting pitcher, Kelly utilizes a sinking fastball that averaged 94.9 mph in 2013, according to FanGraphs, to keep the ball on the ground and in the ballpark (51.1 percent ground-ball rate; 8.9 percent homer/fly-ball rate).

The right-hander allowed four earned runs in two starts, three earned runs in two others and two earned runs or fewer in his 11 remaining starts. Kelly was the definition of a pitcher who gives his team a chance to win, which is all any team can really ask out of a back-of-the-rotation starter. 

One concern is that he won’t be able to repeat his 82.4 percent strand rate that was necessary because of a relatively high 1.333 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched). If ground balls are finding holes in the infield at a much higher rate than in 2013, Kelly could find himself with an ERA that is well into the 4.00s. 

Although his first outing of the spring isn’t likely to have much of an influence on the competition, Kelly’s not off to a great start. He allowed two earned runs on two hits and two walks in 1.2 innings pitched. He also struck out two hitters.

Carlos Martinez

If it’s clear that Martinez is the Cardinals’ best option to set up for Rosenthal, it will be difficult to break camp with him in the rotation. If he happens to win the job, though, Kelly, Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness would be the leading candidates for the eighth-inning role, and the bridge to the ninth inning would likely appear a bit less stable. 

Jason Motte‘s return from Tommy John surgery could play a major factor, though, in reversing that perception. The former closer isn’t expected to be ready for the start of the season, but he told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that sometime in April is a “possibility.”

“Even if I’m throwing bullpens at the end of March and I’m firing balls in there that’s great but it’s still not the same as getting in a game with that intensity, that adrenaline,” Motte said. “So you don’t want to go straight from there to the big-league ballgame without facing hitters or doing anything back-to-back. April may be a possibility, I don’t know.”

If the Cards feel confident that the 31-year-old Motte, who posted a 2.75 ERA and saved 42 games in 2012, will be able to return to form and step into the role of primary setup man early in the season, they could feel much more comfortable with Martinez in the rotation to begin the season.

Of course, Martinez will still have to prove himself this spring. In his first start, he allowed two earned runs—Marlins first baseman Garrett Jones hit a two-run homer against him in the first inning—on two hits over three innings with no walks and two strikeouts. 

Prediction

By allowing Martinez to get his pitch count up in preparation for a starting role to begin the season, the Cards are setting themselves up to have a pretty good backup plan in place should they need another starting pitcher within the first month or two of the season. They also ensure that their bullpen is in the best possible shape with a much-feared late-inning combination of Siegrist-to-Martinez-to-Rosenthal. 

A healthy and effective Motte returning by early May, combined with a struggling Kelly could result in the team moving Martinez into the rotation then. For now, there is no need to go away from the safe decisions of Kelly as the No. 5 starter and Martinez to the ‘pen. 

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In most areas, the St. Louis Cardinals are one of the heavyweights. Power lineup. Power starters. Power relievers.

The bench, however? Well, let’s be generous by calling them lightweights.

For a team possessing all the ingredients to reach the World Series this season, a bench absent of any semblance of pop could be a thorn in their strategy for success.

The five players expected to comprise that unit for the Redbirds in 2014—Jon Jay, Shane Robinson, Mark Ellis, Tony Cruz and Daniel Descalso—have 147 career homers in 8,390 at-bats. Ellis hit 19 home runs in a season, but that happened way back in 2007. Remove his 105 long balls from the equation, and you’re at 42 homers in 3,451 ABs.

Opposing pitchers can motion their outfielders to play in a few more steps when a player from this “fearsome fivesome” arrives at the dish. Collectively, they’ve hit just .206 in 266 pinch-hit appearances with two home runs, both coming from Jay.

St. Louis’ most threatening pinch-hitter from last season, Matt Adams, is now a full-time starter at first base. He accounted for all three of the Cards’ pinch-hit long balls while batting .314 with a .968 OPS.

As I’ve illustrated in a previous article, the Cardinals’ home run production dropped significantly from 2012 to 2013. A casualty of that power outage was the team’s inability to come from behind, especially late.

When the Cardinals were ahead in games last season, they led the National League with a .287 average and 68 homers. Conversely, when they were behind, they hit .240 (ninth) with 26 homers (last).

Division rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati own stellar bullpens, including lock-down closers in Jason Grilli and Aroldis Chapman. Rallies against quality relievers are made that much more challenging with an assembly of Punch-and-Judy pinch-hitters.

Plus, unlike the Redbirds, the Reds and Pirates are equipped with bench muscle. Cincy has Neftali Soto and Chris Heisey. The Bucs carry Travis Snider and Chris McGuiness.

Slugging options could emerge for the Cardinals later in the season.

Top prospect Oscar Taveras will likely get more seasoning at Triple-A Memphis. But barring an injury, he’ll debut in St. Louis sometime in 2014. He’d be a formidable late-inning option or push a strong bat from Allen Craig or Adams to the bench on days he starts.

Randal Grichuk, who was acquired from the Angels in the David Freese deal, hit 22 homers last season at Double-A. With a crowded outfield in St. Louis, his path to playing time in the short term will come as a potential fifth outfielder/bench bat.

Another outfield prospect, Stephen Piscotty, hit 15 homers last year between Single-A and Double-A. He’d admittedly be a long shot for this role, but the Cardinals certainly haven’t shown an aversion to thrusting young players into the limelight.

Last season, it took the Cardinals 118 games before rallying for a win after trailing by three or more runs. They ended up 1-57 when trailing after eight innings.

Teams that reach the postseason frequently rely on late-inning magic to play into October. That hasn’t been the Cards’ journey—at least not recently.

The Redbirds should be good again in 2014. And a weak bench may not make a difference. It didn’t keep the team from a trip to the Fall Classic last season. But it’s the one noticeable chink in their strong, red armor.

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The St. Louis Cardinals reached the World Series last season for the fourth time in the last decade, and they did so with a roster of mostly homegrown players. Even after losing Carlos Beltran to free agency, the Cardinals were viewed as potential contenders headed into 2014 given the holdovers from last year’s club.

The decision not to re-sign Beltran enabled the team to address its two glaring holes at the major league level during the offseason, as it traded for speedy center field Peter Bourjos and signed free-agent shortstop Jhonny Peralta.

But in spite of their upgrades at both up-the-middle positions, the Cardinals will have several decisions to make in the coming weeks pertaining to their Opening Day roster.

Fifth Starter: Joe Kelly vs. Carlos Martinez vs. Tyler Lyons

The Cardinals will open the season with the same starting rotation that carried them into the World Series. Staff ace Adam Wainwright will lead the way followed by 26-year-old Lance Lynn, while second-year standouts Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha are interchangeable as the team’s third and fourth starters.

Noticeably absent from the Cardinals’ projected rotation is left-hander Jaime Garcia, who has been limited to 177 innings over the last two seasons due to a perpetual shoulder injury. The 27-year-old appeared to be healthy headed into spring training, even throwing three pain-free bullpen sessions after reporting to camp.

However, it was announced a few days later that Garcia would travel back to St. Louis for an MRI on his left shoulder. The tests revealed no structural damage, but Garcia still was given a cortisone shot and prescribed 10 to 15 days of rest for his problematic wing.

Since they once again cannot rely on Garcia, the Cardinals will audition several pitchers for the final spot in the Opening Day rotation. According to manager Mike Matheny, via Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com:

I think all of us have been around this enough to know that [injuries happen], and it shouldn’t completely devastate you. You need to have some contingency plans in place of what it might look like. … We’re fortunate that we’ve got plenty of guys ready to compete right now, and we’ll just watch how they continue to progress.

The early favorite headed into spring training was Joe Kelly, who was arguably the team’s most consistent starter during the second half of the 2013 season, with a 9-2 record and 1.91 ERA in 75.1 innings (12 starts). He also made four postseason starts last year, registering a 4.15 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 21.2 innings.

Though the 25-year-old struggled in his first start on Monday against the Tigers, allowing two runs on a pair of hits and walks in 1.2 innings, he’s never had a particularly strong spring training (5.86 ERA in 27.2 innings headed into camp). So don’t read too far into Kelly’s spring stats; his regular-season and postseason accomplishments will always trump the small sample sizes.

However, that’s not to say Kelly is without competition.

Flame-throwing right-hander Carlos Martinez is also auditioning this spring for the final rotation spot, fresh off a breakout performance last October as the Cardinals’ setup man. In spite of his success and future potential out of the bullpen, the organization plans to use the 22-year-old as a starter in the upcoming season.

To ensure that Martinez receives sufficient innings to compete for the role, Matheny had the youngster start the team’s Grapefruit League debut last Friday. Besides the two-run home run he allowed to Garrett Jones on a hanging slider, the right-hander looked sharp in his season debut, striking out two batters over three innings without issuing a walk.

Left-hander Tyler Lyons is the third pitcher competing for a spot in the rotation, though it’s unlikely to see him getting the nod over Kelly and Martinez save for injuries to both right-handers.

Lyons had a respectable showing last season in the major leagues, posting a 4.75 ERA and 43-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53 innings (eight starts), but worked out of the bullpen during September in deference to Wacha in the starting rotation.

The 25-year-old doesn’t have the experience or upside of Kelly or Martinez, but he’s nonetheless a solid rotation option from the left side. Plus, Lyons has looked good so far this spring, allowing two earned run on two hits with four strikeouts and no walks in four innings spanning two outings.

Though the Cardinals have plenty of options, it’s hard not to see the team breaking camp with Kelly as the fifth starter.

Martinez will likely make a strong case for consideration. However, there’s still a fair amount of uncertainty associated with the youngster, and the team knows what it will get from Kelly. Plus, it’s not like it’s a bad thing to have Martinez working the eighth inning.

Second Base: Kolten Wong vs. Mark Ellis 

After trading third baseman David Freese during the offseason and shifting Matt Carpenter to the hot corner, the Cardinals are hoping prospect Kolten Wong will emerge as the team’s Opening Day second baseman.

The position will be Wong’s to lose, however, as the 23-year-old has plenty to prove after a disappointing showing in the major leagues last summer, when he batted .153/.194/.169 in 62 plate appearances spanning 32 games. So it wasn’t surprising that the Cardinals signed veteran Mark Ellis this offseason as an insurance plan should Wong not run away with the position this spring.

Wong has received the bulk of the playing time at the keystone through the Cardinals’ first week of Grapefruit League games, but he’s yet to capitalize on the ample opportunities. After appearing in four games over the past week, Wong is currently 0-for-9 with four strikeouts.

Matheny said the following regarding Wong’s slow start this spring, via Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

I think we’d all rather get off to a good start than a bad one. But I think Kolten is going to be one of those guys that just trusts himself and his ability and not get too high or too low. I think there’s a lot to be seen about how he handles it when things don’t go his way. We’re constantly watching that as well with all these guys.

He’s a talented player and we’ll continue to give him some at-bats and some opportunities out there, and he’s going to be just fine. He looks good this spring. He’s got a nice, short stroke. It’s the first day out there, and he’s pretty hard on himself, so we’re going to have to just make sure he stays the course and keeps doing what he’s doing.

However, Matheny won’t necessarily open the season with Wong at second base solely because he’s viewed as the long-term answer at the position; he hopes Ellis will force the organization to give him more playing time as the spring unfolds, via Langosch of MLB.com:

I want Mark to come out and just do his thing, get ready the way he knows how, and [we’ll] tell Kolten that there is going to be an opportunity for you to go out and compete also. We’ve talked relentlessly with this staff that, ‘Let’s not commit to what we think it has to look like.’ Let’s let these guys go play this game and it’ll make it obvious for itself. There are going to be opportunities for Kolten, and there are going to be opportunities for Mark as well.

There’s a realistic chance that both Wong and Ellis will make the Opening Day roster in a platoon at second base, with Wong receiving playing time against right-handed pitchers and Ellis against southpaws. The organization doesn’t want to cut Wong out of the mix at this stage in his career, yet it also wants to field a winning team at the major league level.

Bench: Pete Kozma vs. Daniel Descalso

The final battle in Cardinals camp this spring is for a spot on the Opening Day roster as a reserve infielder. If Ellis and Wong both make the team in a platoon scenario at second base—though it’s possible Ellis also sees time at shortstop and third base—then the team will likely carry one utility infielder on the active roster.

Through the first week of games, the top two candidates for the spot are Pete Kozma and Daniel Descalso.

Kozma spent last season at shortstop for the Cardinals thanks to his strong performance during both September and postseason in 2012. As expected, the 25-year-old’s one-month production (.952 OPS in 82 plate appearances) proved to be unsustainable over a full major league season, as he batted just .217/.275/.273 with one home run and 91 strikeouts in 448 plate appearances last year.

Additionally, Kozma is a right-handed batter who struggles against left-handed pitching, as evidenced by his .184/.280/.256 batting line versus southpaws last season. Against righties, Kozma fared only slightly better, batting .232/.273/.281 in nearly twice as many plate appearances.

Descalso, 27, served as the Cardinals’ utility infielder last season, as he received playing time at shortstop (55 games), second base (39 games) and third (38 games). However, the left-handed hitter struggled mightily at the dish during the second half of the season, batting .199/.237/.304 with 12 extra-base hits in 172 plate appearances. He also struggled against same-sided pitching last year, posting a .183/.246/.283 batting line in 66 plate appearances.

By now you hopefully get the idea; neither Descalso nor Kozma represents an ideal bat on the bench. However, given both of their respective abilities to play both middle-infield positions, the Cardinals will almost definitely break camp with one of them.

Though Descalso is capable of playing three infield spots, he’s not a particularly strong defender at any of them. According to FanGraphs.com’s fielding metrics, he cost the Cardinals seven runs at shortstop last season and four runs at second base. His only positive marks come at third base, where his glove saved the team four runs.

Kozma, on the other hand, played 137 games at shortstop last season and committed only nine errors while saving eight runs and showing good range (8.0 UZR/150).

Since both players only hit right-handed pitching, the Cardinals’ decision on who makes the Opening Day roster will likely come down to defense. With the team’s offseason signing of bat-first shortstop Peralta, it will need to carry a strong defender capable of replacing the 31-year-old in the late innings, and given Kozma’s track record with the glove at the position, he’s seemingly best suited for the role.

However, there’s also something to be said for Descalso’s versatility, as he gives the Cardinals the ability to mix and match the lineup on any given day. Plus, he recently settled his arbitration case for $1.29 million, which means the organization has additional incentive to keep him in the major leagues.

Center Field: Peter Bourjos vs. Jon Jay

The Cardinals first move of the offseason addressed the team’s lack of speed and defensive, as they traded 2011 World Series MVP David Freese and reliever Fernando Salas to the Angels for center fielder Peter Bourjos and a prospect.

The Bourjos acquisition means that Jon Jay, who helped the Cardinals win a pair of NL pennants and a World Series title since reaching the major leagues in 2010, has his work cut out for him this spring.

Talking with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch prior to spring training, general manager John Mozeliak explained the team’s decision to trade for Bourjos:

“When you think about the elements of our team and where we could directionally move things, this was one area where, if possible, we could upgrade (by) finding someone who could be an elite defender in the league. … There’s no doubt when you look at what Jay has accomplished offensively. I look at Bourjos’ addition as an injection that is a very rare commodity to find. How it all gets used and put in place we’ll see.”

Jay, who turns 29 in March, spent most of the first half trying to alter the timing of his swing and owned a disappointing .671 OPS through his first 91 games. However, he eventually settled in after the All-Star break and posted a much-improved .791 OPS over his final 260 plate appearances. And while Jay’s .276/.351/.370 batting line represented an across-the-board regression, he did post career highs in doubles (27), runs scored (75) and RBI (67).

Bourjos began 2013 on a tear as the Angels’ everyday center fielder, batting .333/.392/.457 with eight extra-base hits through his first 147 plate appearances. Unfortunately, his red-hot start hit a wall in late April when the 26-year-old landed on the 15-day disabled list with a left hamstring strain. Bourjos returned to action and picked up where he had left off, posting an .888 OPS in 18 games. But, as fate would have it, a hit by pitch on June 29 resulted in a fractured right wrist and another 47 games on the disabled list.

Bourjos was able to rejoin the Angels in mid-August, but the wrist injury clearly affected his ability to handle the bat, evidenced by a .109/.163/.152 batting line in 49 plate appearances spanning Aug. 16 to Sept. 3. Following the season, he underwent surgery on the wrist to repair a small fracture.

With Bourjos fully healthy entering 2014, the Cardinals hope he can return to his 2011 form, when he batted .271/.327/.438 with 72 runs scored, 49 extra-base hits and 22 stolen bases in 552 plate appearances.

However, while Jay gets the edge for his steady production and durability, it’s impossible to overlook what Bourjos brings to the table defensively.

Since reaching the major leagues in 2010, Bourjos’ 20.2 UZR/150 (which measures a player’s range) is the highest mark among all active center fielders with at least 1,500 innings at the position, according to FanGraphs.com’s defensive metrics, and he also ranks fifth with 33 runs saved.

From 2010 to 2012, Jay played average defense in center field, saving the team a total of three runs during that span. Last year, however, Jay’s normally reliable defense deteriorated in a hurry, as his -10 runs saved represented the second-worst total among qualified center fielder (trailing only Shin-Soo Choo with -17). Meanwhile, his zone rating of -7.5 UZR/150 was by far the lowest in his four-year career and ranked as the third-worst among his peers.

Both players offer a uniquely different lineup dynamic; Bourjos is a right-handed batter with speed and the ability to save runs, where as Jay swings from the left side with a track record of consistent production. The Cardinals will use spring training to evaluate both players and best determine their best option to open the season in center field. Yet, it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which Bourjos or Jay is strictly favored over the other, save for an injury.

Instead, it’s likely that both players will split time at the position this spring and possibly well into the regular season, with the organization hoping that one of them will eventually rise to the top and emerge as the everyday guy. 

Bourjos has considerably more upside given his age and tools and should serve as the Cardinals’ center fielder for years to come, but don’t expect the organization to completely write off Jay this year after only one poor season.

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Spring training is in full swing and the St. Louis Cardinals are creating plenty of buzz. The reigning National League champions have a stacked roster at the major league level. It is the continued improvement of the players in the farm system that keeps the fans coming back for more early in spring.

The roster offers very few surprises for 2014. This is a great time of year to get a glimpse of a team’s future, however. The future stars around the diamond for the Cardinals are keeping fans chattering about the possibilities.

Buzz is not always a positive thing. While the Cardinals have plenty of positive things happening around the youth in the organization, one of the team’s top prospects, Oscar Taveras, has yet to take the field. There is also no timetable for when he will. Kolten Wong, another prospect that is slated to have a spot in the starting lineup this season, is turning heads with his continued lack of production. The work ethic is there but the results will need to come around eventually.

Meanwhile, Randal Grichuk, the newest prospects in camp, is doing all the right things to prove that he is ready to realize his potential in a new uniform. Sometimes, it is the work going on before and after the games that lay the ground work for future opportunities.

Of course, it is the surplus of young pitching that always draws attention and the Cardinals have young pitching in a seemingly endless stockpile. That stockpile showed up in a big way over the weekend and had fans chattering almost immediately.

The following prospects are causing plenty of buzz with fans and pundits alike this spring.

Statistics in the following article are sourced from MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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The 2013 St. Louis Cardinals scored 18 more runs than in 2012 despite hitting 34 fewer home runs. A season after being ranked No. 7 in homers in the National League, they plummeted to No. 13.

Five Cardinals blasted 20 or more long balls in 2012 compared to two last season. And one of them—Carlos Beltran—left via free agency.

Is there a rebound in store for the Redbirds in the power department?

Before that question can be answered, let’s examine the causes for the drop-off in production.

Allen Craig’s total dropped from 22 to 13. He didn’t go deep in April and had just 14 at-bats in September due to injury, so that certainly played a role. But it doesn‘t explain everything.

Craig’s fly-ball rate went from 33 to 28 percent, marking a third straight season in decline. That percentage jumped to 2012 levels in June when he enjoyed his largest home run output with six. However, in July and August, when fly balls travel well in the humid St. Louis summer, he managed just four big flies.

Craig also has dealt with significant leg injuries. In 2011, a broken kneecap cost him several months. Last season, an ankle injury cost him most of September and the postseason. As he approaches 30, if leg issues persist, it becomes more difficult to recover power.

For Yadier Molina, the 22 home runs in 2012 could serve as the outlier. His fly-ball rate remained consistent with previous seasons, but his home run-to-fly-ball ratio (HR/F) spiked to new levels. That percentage leveled out in 2013, hence the 10-homer drop.

David Freese‘s below-average fly-ball rate didn’t suggest a 20-homer season was on the horizon in 2012. However, a career-high 500 at-bats coupled with a 20 percent HR/F rate combined to create a career year—and one he wasn’t likely to repeat.

The good fortune ran out for Freese last season, as the HR/F rate dipped to 10 percent, and the ground-ball rate rose to 55 percent.

Beltran put 24 over the fence last season, falling well short of 2012 totals. The 20 percent HR/F rate that helped him achieve 32 homers dipped to 13 percent.

The Cardinals’ home ballpark also did its part to suppress the long ball.

Busch Stadium ranked No. 24 in the majors last season, surrendering 0.837 home runs a game. That’s down from 0.915 in 2012. But even 2013 levels represent a slight increase for a park that averaged 0.797 homers a game its first six years of existence.

Losing a perennial 20-homer slugger like Beltran doesn‘t bode well for the Cardinals reaching 2012 levels this season. But new additions, developing youngsters and a reversal of fortune for players like Craig and/or Molina give the Redbirds the potential for an increase from last season.

Matt Adams is the full-time first baseman in St. Louis. After hitting 17 homers in 296 at-bats last season, there’s no reason to believe he won’t surpass 20. And if he improves against lefties, a 30-homer campaign is realistic.

Jhonny Peralta and his nine straight seasons of 10-plus homers—and four seasons of 20 or more—replaces shortstop Pete Kozma, who has three major league long balls. Enough said.

Rookie Oscar Taveras, who hit 23 homers in Double-A in 2012, projects as a 25- to 30-homer player in the majors. While an unrealistic goal for this season, he could reach double digits with enough playing time. Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch addresses how the rookie could impact the Redbirds in multiple ways.

While some stats explain Craig’s drop in power, another hints at a rebound. His 11 percent HR/F rate last season was significantly lower than the previous two seasons, suggesting he’ll be closer to his 2012 numbers.

Matt Holliday hasn’t had a 30-homer season since 2007 with the Rockies. But he did come close to that mark with the Cardinals in 2010 and 2012. A player with eight straight 20-plus home run seasons only needs a smidgen of good fortune to crack 30 again.

Overall, statistical trends indicate the 2014 Redbirds will be closer to last year’s home run production. However, the development of sluggers like Adams and Taveras reflect the potential for a significant power boost in the future.

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The St. Louis Cardinals won 97 games on their way to the World Series last season, and then addressed a couple of their most pressing roster needs over the winter.

So no, there’s not a whole lot to complain about when it comes to the Cardinals’ chances of having yet another winning season in 2014—that would make it 14 out of 15 in the new millennium, by the way. As things stand now, it’s not so much a question of what they need so much as it is a question of what they need to go right.

MLB Lead Writer Zachary D. Rymer is here to tackle that topic, which he thinks begins with St. Louis’ expensive new shortstop living up to expectations and proceeds with some key sophomore slumps and injuries remaining at bay.

Leave your comments and questions below if you have any, and you’re also welcome to follow Zachary on Twitter.

Follow Zachary: @zachrymer

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It’s doubtful the St. Louis Cardinals would have finished with the best record in the National League and reached the World Series last season without the contributions from their rookie pitchers.

Using 12 different rookies during the regular season, the Cardinals’ collection of promising young arms posted a 36-22 record with a 3.17 ERA, 8.79 K/9 and 2.99 BB/9 in 553.2 innings.

Among those rookies was a trio of homegrown right-handers: Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha.

While Miller opened the year in the team’s big league rotation and served as one of the National League’s better rookie hurlers before the All-Star break, Martinez and Wacha arrived later in the summer to help push the Cardinals into the postseason.

However, in spite of their respective successes last season, Miller, Martinez and Wacha each have the potential to be even better in 2014.

Shelby Miller

Shelby Miller wasn’t just one of the top rookie pitchers during the first half of the season, he was one of the top pitchers in the game. Over his first 18 starts, the 23-year-old posted a 2.92 ERA and .225 opponents’ batting average with 112 strikeouts in 104.2 innings.

The Cardinals wisely offered Miller additional rest surrounding the All-Star break after he showed signs of wearing down in late June and into July. Although he had an up-and-down second half, the right-hander completed the final month of the season on a positive note by going 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA over five starts.

Miller’s season highlight came on May 10 in his home start against the Colorado Rockies, when he surrendered a leadoff single to Eric Young Jr. before retiring the next 27 hitters in order.

Since the beginning of the postseason, however, Miller essentially has been a non-factor for the Cardinals. With fellow rookie Wacha thriving in the starting rotation after a strong finish to the regular season, manager Mike Matheny relegated Miller to the bullpen for the NLDS, mostly due to his season-long struggles against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

As a pitcher who throws his four-seam fastball 70.86 percent of the time (per Brooks Baseball), Miller can be hittable when his command of the pitch isn’t sharp. The right-hander surrendered six or more hits in 13 starts last year and allowed 12 home runs—he gave up 20 total home runs during the regular the season—in those games.

Given his heavy four-seamer use, one would think that Miller also features some form of changeup so as to neutralize left-handed batters. Yet, Miller’s changeup is actually his least used and developed offering, and the right-hander threw it only 6.41 percent of the time last season (per Brooks Baseball).

Even though Miller’s curveball is only a little better than average, his lack of a consistent changeup makes it his go-to secondary offering against lefties by default—which isn’t a good thing. The right-hander threw his curveball 16.41 percent of the time against left-handed batters in 2013, and they collectively batted .302 (.378 BABIP) with a .453 slugging percentage.

Miller used his changeup sparingly against lefties last season—11.46 percent of the time, to be exact—which speaks to both his lack of confidence in the pitch and its overall ineffectiveness (.333 BA, .433 SLG, .370 BABIP). Additionally, left-handed batters posted higher line-drive (6.17 percent) and fly-ball (5.56 percent) rates versus his changeup than either of his other two offerings. And to make matters ever more complicated, the 23-year-old struggled to control the pitch for the duration of the regular season, throwing it for a strike only 20.37 percent of the time.

In order for Miller to improve his changeup, he will first need to find a comfortable and repeatable release point for the pitch. Last season it was all over the place, varying from start to start:

Because Miller employs a clean and efficient delivery, the right-hander should theoretically be able to develop a consistent arm slot for a changeup. The pitch will probably never be a dynamic offering, but it still has the potential to be at least average if his control improves.

Carlos Martinez

Carlos Martinez struggled to find a role following his big league debut on May 3, as he was used sparingly out of the bullpen and bounced between the minor and major leagues as the organization seemingly pondered how to best utilize the 22-year-old.

By the end of the regular season, though, the flame-throwing right-hander emerged as manager Mike Matheny‘s preferred option in the late innings and ultimately served as the team’s setup man throughout the postseason.

Martinez appeared in 12 games between the team’s three playoff series, registering a 3.55 ERA and .167 opponents’ batting average with three walks and 11 strikeouts in 12.2 innings.

But in spite of his success as a reliever, the Cardinals have already stated that Martinez won’t be working out of the bullpen next season. According to Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com, Martinez will enter spring training next season in the mix for a spot in the starting rotation.

The decision to use Martinez as a starter shouldn’t come as a surprise. Since entering the Cardinals’ system in 2010, the right-hander has pitched in 68 minor league games and was the starter in all but one of them. During that span, he posted a 2.69 ERA with 340 strikeouts and a 2.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 327.2 innings.

Yet, in his only start in the major leagues last season (Aug. 8), Martinez allowed four earned runs on seven hits and three walks in 4.2 innings against the Dodgers.

Specifically, Martinez’s arm slot in that start was noticeably different than it was out of the bullpen during the final month of the regular season and into the playoffs:

In addition to working from a slightly lower vertical-release point, the right-hander also shifted toward the first-base side of the rubber, as evidenced by his higher horizontal-release point:

Martinez had flashes of brilliance during the season but never enjoyed the success that his pure stuff suggested. However, after making the adjustment to his positioning on the rubber, the right-hander finally started to dominate and miss bats with his filthy sinker-slider combination:

Regardless of whether Martinez is used as a starter or reliever next season, he stands to benefit from developing a better feel for the movement on his sinker. As we saw last year, hitters, especially right-handed hitters, will try to achieve a point of contact in front of the plate before the pitch runs too far inside and sinks out of the zone. Therefore, even though he was able to keep the ball on the ground (17.65 percent ground-ball rate) last season, opposing hitters still were able to barrel it too consistently and ultimately posted a .320 batting average (.348 BABIP).

Based on that information, Martinez has considerable room for improvement next season if he can learn to throw his sinker to the outside corner of the plate against right-handed batters. In theory, it should at least prevent them from sitting on something on the inner half like last year, which usually translates to more off-balance swings and weaker contact.

Michael Wacha

Though he was first promoted to the major leagues in late May, Michael Wacha didn’t join the Cardinals’ starting rotation until September. Pitching in the heat of a playoff race roughly one year after the Cardinals made him the No. 19 overall pick in the 2012 draft, the 22-year-old posted a 1.72 ERA, .198 opponents’ batting average and 28/10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31.1 innings (five starts) over the final month of the season.

However, it wasn’t until his final regular-season start that Wacha put himself on the map as one of the game’s more promising young arms.

Taking the mound against the Washington Nationals on Sept. 24, Wacha came within one out of a no-hitter before allowing an infield single to Ryan Zimmerman. As a result of his late-season success, the right-hander was named to the Cardinals’ postseason starting rotation ahead of fellow rookie and 15-game winner Shelby Miller.

Well, needless to say it was the right decision, as Wacha finished his first postseason with a 4-1 record, 2.64 ERA and 33-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30.2 innings (five starts), and captured NLCS MVP honors along the way.

In order for Wacha to take a step forward next year, the right-hander must continue to trust his breaking ball as he did in the 2013 postseason.

After throwing his fastball and changeup more than 90 percent of the time during the regular season, Wacha (as well as Yadier Molina) started mixing in more curveballs during the playoffs to avoid becoming too predictable. The change in strategy ultimately paid off for the right-hander, as his whiffs-per-swing rate jumped from 14.29 percent in September to 31.58 percent in October:

But in spite of his improvement last October, Wacha generally struggled to consistently miss bats with his curveball last season, as the right-hander’s 9.09 percent whiff-per-swing rate ranked 225th among all starting pitchers (per Brooks Baseball’s PITCHf/x leaderboard).

Even though Wacha has a good feel for his curveball and sequences it well in relation to his fastball and changeup, the reality is the pitch lacks dynamic break.

Wacha’s curveball averaged -6.17 inches of vertical movement last season, which ranked 110th among all starting pitchers. For the sake of comparison, Adam Wainwright’s curveball ranked 15th with -9.40 inches of vertical movement.

Generally speaking, the right-hander’s curveball lacks a tight rotation and reaches its peak too quickly en route to the plate. As a result, opposing hitters are able to recognize the spin early and at least get a piece of the offering. Last season, Wacha’s 45.45 percent fouls-per-swing rate was the third highest among starters that threw at least 40 curveballs.

The good news is that Wacha’s breaking ball has already improved exponentially since entering the Cardinals’ system in 2012. And while it’s completely unrealistic to think the pitch will develop into a Wainwright-like hammer, the 22-year-old’s advanced command and overall confidence should help the pitch play above its grade for a long, long time.

All PITCHf/x data courtesy of Brooks Baseball

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Oscar Taveras was widely regarded as the top offensive prospect in baseball headed into the 2013 season and was expected to make an immediate impact upon reaching the major leagues with the St. Louis Cardinals.

But Taveras’ highly anticipated campaign didn’t unfold as expected, as he suffered an ankle injury that limited him to only 46 games at Triple-A and ultimately required season-ending surgery.

However, according to a recent report from MLB.com, the 21-year-old outfielder’s ankle feels “100 percent” in advanced of spring training.

Though Taveras isn’t a lock to make the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, he’s still expected to compete for a job as the team’s everyday right fielder in spring training. Even if he doesn’t break camp in the major leagues, Taveras is poised for a breakout Rookie-of-the-Year-caliber season in 2014.

Background

After a strong showing between a pair of rookie levels in 2010, Taveras was moved up to Low-A Quad Cities the following year for his full-season debut. The then-19-year-old jumped on the prospect radar by tearing the cover off the ball at the more advanced level, batting .386/.444/.584 with 40 extra-base hits (eight home runs) in 347 plate appearances.

As a result of his overwhelming success, Taveras was promoted directly from Low- to Double-A for the 2012 season, where he destroyed Texas League pitching to the tune of a .321/.380/.572 batting line with 67 extra-base hits (23 home runs), 94 RBI and a 56-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 531 plate appearances.

It also marked the third consecutive season in which the left-handed hitter posted a .300-plus batting average and .500-plus slugging percentage.

Moved up to Triple-A Memphis for the 2013 season—a season in which he was expected to make an impact in the major leagues—the 21-year-old suffered a high ankle sprain in late May that continued to bother him throughout the season and led to two separate stints on the disabled list.

There was a glimmer of hope in mid-August when reports had Taveras nearing a rehab assignment, fueling the belief that the outfielder could still receive a September call-up. Unfortunately, it was announced a few days later that he needed season-ending surgery.

The surgery went well, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, though Taveras was restricted to a walking boot for the following eight weeks.

Overall, Taveras batted .306/.341/.462 with 17 extra-base hits last season, but was limited to only 186 plate appearances with Memphis.

Scouting Report

Taveras features an explosive, yet well-balanced, left-handed swing that enables him to keep the bat head in the zone for an extended period of time. As a result, he seemingly always achieves a favorable point of contact, while his extension through the ball allows him to generate backspin carry to all fields and amass a significant number of extra-base hits.

Though Taveras has plenty of strength and raw power, his in-game power is more so a product of him being a pure hitter.

However, it’s Taveras’ unparalleled hand-eye coordination and bat-to-ball ability that separates him from other highly regarded young hitters. Additionally, the 21-year-old’s ability to drive the ball the other way is already more advanced than a lot of big league hitters and only stands to improve with additional experience against top-notch pitching.

Over the last two seasons, he has drawn an increasing number of comparisons to Vladimir Guerrero due to his aggressive, free-swinging approach, as well as his knack for consistently centering pitches throughout (and even outside) the strike zone.

Taveras simply hits everything: fastballs, breaking balls, off-speed pitches, same-side pitching, pitcher’s pitches—you name it and he can barrel it, effortlessly. And while his approach may be challenged more at the major league level, Taveras should always make enough contact to negate any strikeout-related concerns.

Though he has considerable experience in center field, Taveras’ defensive profile is better suited for a corner outfielder position—likely right field given the presence of Matt Holliday in left. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ offseason acquisition of Peter Bourjos eliminated any temptation for the team to deploy Taveras in center field during future seasons.

2014: What to Expect

The question isn’t if Oscar Taveras will make an impact in the major leagues next season; rather, it’s a question of when.

As previously mentioned, the Cardinals are likely to open the 2014 season with Holliday in left field and Bourjos in center. Meanwhile, the need to have both Allen Craig and Matt Adams’ respective right- and left-handed bats in the lineup means Craig is likely to get the nod in right field next season.

So, where does that leave Taveras?

Well, Taveras will get the chance to compete for a job this spring, presumably in right field, though the team may offer him playing time at both corner spots to ensure he receives consistent (and much-needed) at-bats.

However, based upon the strength of the Cardinals’ probable outfield configuration of Holliday-Bourjos-Craig, not to mention the fact that Taveras had only 186 plate appearances in 2013, the 21-year-old is likely to open the year at Triple-A.

But that could change in a hurry this spring if Adams or Craig were to suffer an injury, or if Adams struggles at the plate and forces the organization to use Craig almost exclusively at first base to open the year. Regardless of what transpires with his future teammates, Taveras will have to do his part by tearing the cover off the ball during spring training in order to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster.

That being said, the Cardinals aren’t known for rushing its offensive prospects to the major leagues. This is especially applicable for Taveras, who is expected to rake upon reaching the major leagues whenever that ultimately occurs.

The two main statistical projection models (per FanGraphs), Oliver and ZIPS, both suggest that Taveras will enjoy sustained success in the majors next season. (Note: The Oliver projection model works under the assumption that a player spends then entire season in the major leagues.)

As one can see, both models believe that Taveras will post an OPS in the .779 to .789 range to go along with a .300-plus BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and solid strikeout and walk rates.

If Taveras doesn’t open the season in the major leagues, then he’s unlikely to be promoted until May, at the earliest, unless there’s an injury to one of the team’s aforementioned outfielders. If that is the case, then the ZIPS projections provide an accurate idea of what to expect from Taveras next season.

However, based on the 21-year-old’s offensive prowess and track record against advanced competition, he’s more likely to surpass those statistical expectations than disappoint next year. And so long as Taveras spends a good chunk of the 2014 season in the major leagues, it’s hard to envision him not make a strong bid for Rookie of the Year honors in the National League.

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