Kuzul

You remember what your father used to tell you about baseball, right?

“Son, baseball players don’t learn to hit at the major league level after compiling a .652 OPS in six minor league seasons.”

Or something like that.

If that “axiom” is true, then what are the Cardinals and their fans to make of Pete Kozma‘s shocking 26-game performance at the end of 2012 where he batted .333, had 15 of his 24 hits go for extra bases and essentially saved their season when Rafael Furcal was felled by a torn elbow ligament?

Does St. Louis have the next Ozzie Smith on its hands or just another Bo Hart or Joe McEwing? 

Truth be told, sometimes it takes a player a couple years for the offensive side of his game to click.

Smith, a Cardinals’ icon, didn’t bat above .260 until he was 30-years-old.

Omar Vizquel’s first meaningful offensive season came at age 29.

Poor ex-Cardinal Brendan Ryan was the best defensive shortstop in the majors this year at age 30, but hit just .194 in 407 at-bats this year—the worst batting average of his career.

Let’s look at the early-career slash lines of two batters that Cardinal fans know fairly well:

In this sample, Player A started out with a fairly weak stick, really bottomed-out in 2006 and then rebounded very nicely in 2007 at age 24 with a much better feel for the strike zone, as the batting average and on-base percentage trended upward.

Eerily similar, no?

Player B seems to have a similar offensive profile to Player A. He is a weak batter to begin with, seriously struggles at age 23, but then seems to turn a corner of sorts at age 24.

Now, for the hidden details.

Player A’s stats are at the major league level while B’s are from the minors, except for 2012 which includes his hot stint in St. Louis.

So yes, it’s not a pure comparison, but it does illustrate the early offensive struggles each hitter had relative to their own context.

And if you haven’t guessed yet, Player B is Kozma and Player A—well, he just finished fourth in the National League Most Valuable Player voting for 2012.

Now, I’m not saying that our “Wizard of Koz” is going to develop into a hitter like perennial All-Star, Yadier Molina. In fact, it’s a ridiculous comparison; guilty as charged.

But the point is, baseball is littered with productive players, even All-Stars, who were late bloomers with the bat.

Kozma will be turning 25 next April and it may behoove general manager John Mozeliak to see what they have in the former “bust” first-round pick by giving him one more extended look in St. Louis.

In addition to the fabulous .952 OPS Kozma put up this year, he also showed great poise for an un-heralded rookie.

In his postseason interviews, he dryly answered questions like a ten-year veteran. He certainly didn’t look like he was in over his head.

Perhaps after six nondescript minor league seasons, Kozma has learned to temper his excitement and just focus on the job at hand. Maybe that was difficult to do in Memphis with no hope of getting major league work, but perhaps his fire has been rekindled in St. Louis.

For a realistic comparison, let’s look at Zack Cozart of the NL Central rival Reds.

Cozart has an infinitely better pedigree than Kozma—like a career OPS in the minors that is 100 points better than Kozma‘s—but the 2012 season that Cozart just put up at age 26 doesn’t seem at all beyond what Kozma could produce in St. Louis next year (.246/.288/.399/.687).

Who knows?

Furcal’s recovery seems to be going swimmingly and this has to factor into the club’s decision to trade for a shortstop this offseason.

Fans may be treated to another helping of Kozmania if the fragile Furcal goes down early in 2013.

We may just find out if Kozma is the real deal.

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The 2012 campaign for Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright had more twists and turns than the famous Lombard Street.  One minute he was looking like the ace of 2009-2010 as he showed in August.  The next he was struggling to get to the sixth inning and giving up home runs in droves.

Wainwright dominated August with a 5-1 record and a 2.75 ERA and helped the Cardinals get their stretch run toward the postseason started.  You never would have known that his April was downright putrid when he went 0-3 in four starts and gave up five home runs in 19.1 innings.  

But one thing the Cardinals and their fans know for sure about Wainwright (besides his practical joker side) is that he is ready to get after it in 2013.  He’s a guy who has a tremendous amount of confidence and knows he is the ace of a pretty solid Cardinals staff. 

Wainwright himself sees himself a Redbirds uniform in his future for a long time to come. Since he is under contract for 2013, the Cardinals should lock him up long term before he goes out and wins 20-plus games and his value skyrockets.  Here are three reasons why the Cardinals should lock up Wainwright on a long-term deal.

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St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina is bringing home another chunk of hardware.

In a televised announcement Tuesday evening, Molina was awarded his fifth consecutive Gold Glove for his stellar defensive performance behind the plate.

Last week, he was honored with the Fielding Bible Award in a unanimous vote and more recognition this week only further illustrates his prowess as a defender.

For years, Molina has been pegged by most as the best defensive catcher in baseball and for the most part that is reflective in the Cardinals team defensive statistics.

A total of 56 bases were stolen against the Cardinals in 2012. That ranks the team 29th of 30.

In terms of runners caught stealing, a total of 43 base stealers were busted in 2012. That puts the Cardinals in a tie for seventh  in all of MLB.

There’s a reason there aren’t many stolen bases – they simply don’t run on Molina anymore.

The fact that only 43 base runners were caught is a testament to the same.

The Cardinals stolen base percentage in 2012 also came in at 29th with .566 – one 1/100th of a percentage point from being the best in baseball.

No one argues about Molina’s defensive ability. After 2012, no one will be arguing about his offensive output either.

Molina had career highs in home runs (22), RBI (76), batting average (.315), runs scored (65), hits (159), stolen bases (12), OBP (.373), slugging (.501) and OPS (.874).

He has officially transitioned into an elite five-tool player.

Molina hits well for average, for power, he’s not the fastest but he is a smart base runner, he has one of the best arms in the league and his fielding ability is second to none.

He also brings a lot of intangibles to the team as well in his work with the pitching staff. He knows the competition well and knows his competition better. Both have a mutual respect for him.

Prior to his start in Game 5 of the 2012 National League Championship Series, Cardinals RHP Lance Lynn spoke about what Molina means to him as a starter.

“You see Yadi doing his work day in and day out,” Lynn said. “The guy never wants to take a day off.  We have to force him to take a day off here and there during the season.  So you know that he wants to be the best.  In my opinion he is the best.”

With that kind of work ethic comes a deep level of trust. 

“He has a great feel for what they’re trying to do and he knows how we can be successful with doing what we do the best as that pitcher that’s on the mound at that time,” he said. “You have the most faith that you can have with someone when every time he puts down a finger you know that there’s a good thought behind it.  He’s not just down there putting fingers down for the heck of it.”

Molina’s performance this past season makes his contract extension look like a bargain at $14.5 million AAV over five years through 2017 with a $15 million mutual option for 2018. Had the Cardinals not gotten a deal worked out prior to the season, he would have brought big bucks on the free agent market.

It’s not his first Gold Glove, but with a minimum of five more years in his contract and after watching him grow in 2012, there is no reason to expect this to be Yadier Molina’s last either.

 Corey Noles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. Unless otherwise noted, all quotes were obtained firsthand.

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The St. Louis Cardinals will soon face quite the conundrum at first base. A team that only 12 months ago let Albert Pujols walk in free agency, now has a pair of sluggers who could fill the vacancy long-term.

Assuming the Cardinals stick with what worked this year, what would that mean for Matt Adams, the Cardinals’ minor league slugging first baseman?

Allen Craig and Adams have both been a hot button topic among Cardinals fans for the past year regarding which of the two, if either, will be the team’s replacement for Pujols in the long run.

Craig, 28, despite being injured for a portion of 2012, put together an impressive season. In 119 games this year, Craig pieced together a .307 average, 22 home runs, 92 RBI and 76 runs scored.

Imagine how that could have looked with 43 more games tacked on.

When the regular season came to a close and the Cardinals advanced to the postseason, Craig’s bat fell flat.

In 13 postseason games in 2012, Craig went 11-for-47 and hit .234 with a home run and six RBI. His OPS during the LCS dropped to .352.

Despite that, his offense played a huge role in getting the Cardinals to October. Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak told 101 ESPN of St. Louis this week that he wants to keep Craig’s bat in the lineup.

With the outfield slots filled already, that leaves only first base.

Adams has been a huge presence in the minor leagues. In 2011 for Double-A Springfield, he hit 32 home runs with 101 RBI in 115 games.

He was on pace to match those numbers during his first year at Triple-A Memphis (18 HR, 50 RBI, .329 in 67 games) before he was called up to St. Louis to fill in for an injured Lance Berkman.

He didn’t see the same success at St. Louis that he did in the minor leagues (.244, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 6 doubles, 27 games), but it was later discovered he had been injured.

Bone spurs in his right elbow sidelined him. The subsequent surgery in August made him unavailable as a September call-up.

Adams is expected to be ready to play again by spring training, but where?

Unlike Craig, Adams is believed to be less defensively flexible. At this point, his best use is as either a bench bat or an insurance policy for Craig.

Mozeliak has long shown a desire to keep him somewhere he could be playing as opposed to just sitting on the bench in St. Louis.

With little left for Adams to accomplish in the minor leagues, where will he be next year? The Cardinals have several options.

First, they could leave him in Memphis in case someone gets injured during the season. While it would get him more playing time, he is at a point in his career where he needs to be facing major league pitching.

The option might be the best for the Cardinals, but it may not be the best option for Adams.

Second, they could bring Adams to St. Louis as a bench bat. During the 2012 postseason, a serious lack of bench depth hurt the Cardinals offensively.

While they would prefer to have him playing every day, this option would give Adams the ability to test himself in the major leagues and give the team some added depth.

Third, the team could trade Adams. Most believe Adams to be a skilled hitter with explosive power—two characteristics many teams would find attractive.

The idea that the Cardinals could package Adams with a young pitching prospect for a top notch middle-infielder like Elvis Andrus does present some immediate issues.

The Cardinals’ current shortstop, Rafael Furcal, is signed through 2013. However, if Furcal is unable to play or requires offseason surgery, the Cardinals may not have an option but to make a move.

There’s no guess whether it would be a player as high-caliber as Andrus, but they do have the pieces to make such a deal for a similar player happen.

With both Adams and Craig in the system, the Cardinals have a problem most teams would kill for—more power first basemen than they can get in the lineup.

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ST. LOUIS–The St. Louis Cardinals are back at it again—defying all the odds to keep driving deeper into October. They met a hiccup in their plans on Friday night when they lost Game 5 of the NLCS to the San Francisco Giants.

When your team has a pair of Mr. Octobers, the chance to keep a game or series alive is always present.

The Cardinals have been quick to credit their success so far in 2012 to rookie manager Mike Matheny for his methods and positive attitude.

“I was thinking about Mike Matheny and he’s a man of very few words, compared to a lot of people,” David Freese said prior to Game 5 of the NLCS. “But, when he speaks, it’s meaningful.”

Freese, like most members of the team, has an immense respect for Matheny both as a manager and a man.

“He’s got our back, from day one,” he said. “That’s cool to see.  He’s out here having a good time and he’s just loving this, I know that.”

While the players have an immense amount of respect for their “new” manager, Freese said he knows that feeling is mutual.

“He trusts his players,” he said. “He’s a guy that, he’s very prepared, just like Tony.  He throws his team out there and puts them in situations that they can succeed in.”

If anyone on the team is equipped to speak about Matheny’s trust in his players, it’s Jon Jay.

The decision to make Jay the everyday outfielder meant everything to the young man now crowned as the Cardinals lead-off hitter as well.

“We had Carlos Beltran here, and he’s done everything that you can do in center field,” Jay said. “And he was a great center fielder. For him to come up to me and say that to me, that was big to me.”

When a new manager takes over, young players particularly get concerned because they don’t know if their role will remain the same.  

“The past two seasons for me I was battling to try to get in the lineup,” Jay said. “I knew that was my role. I knew that was what it was going to take for me to be in the roster.”

One of the things players have regularly touted about Matheny, is that he focuses on a player’s skills, not their faults.

That can be huge for team morale.

“As far as motivation for Mike, he’s always positive,” Jay said. “That’s the No. 1 thing. That’s something that definitely rubs off on us. He’s never negative about anything.”

That’s saying something considering the Cardinals struggles throughout portions of the season. Having a manager trying to keep the team focused and telling them he believes in them is vital during a slump, and it appears Matheny has worked hard at that.

“When we went through our stretches where things weren’t so hot, he was always positive,” Jay said. “He kept believing in us and kept telling us how much talent we had on this team and how much we all cared about each other. And I think that’s been the big thing this year—just staying positive.”

Adam Wainwright also touted Matheny’s leadership abilities and acknowledged.

“Well, I think he’s a man of immense character,” Wainwright said of his rookie manager. “I think he’s a role model, a leader that we look to, leads by example, a guy who never gets flustered, always is in smooth control of his mind and his body. But, I don’t know, he kind of brings that leadership, maybe like a Tony Dungy or somebody like that, that quiet strength you just kind of feed off of.”

With the Cardinals headed back to San Francisco with hopes of wrapping this series up, focusing on the positive is crucial.

The key to wrapping up the NLCS on the way to the team’s fourth World Series berth in nine years is going to be for Matheny to keep his team focused.

He pointed out Friday that distractions are nothing new to the Cardinals. Between the pressure to win the series at home and the media circus that arrives with the playoffs, the team has played through its share of distractions.

Matheny said he works hard to keep them prepared for those distractions.

“We’ve had discussions, they’ve talked amongst themselves,” he said. “We go out and we play the game and the team that can take the distractions and put them aside and just go out and do your job is the team that’s going to have a higher likelihood of winning.”

This team has the ability to get the job done. They have two more opportunities to make that happen.

 Corey Noles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. Unless otherwise noted, all quotes were obtained firsthand.

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Even though the St. Louis Cardinals have developed a penchant for comebacks when they are down to their last out in postseason series over the past few seasons, Game 3 of the 2012 NLCS against the San Francisco Giants is a must-win game for St. Louis.

After the two teams split the first two games in San Francisco, the series has shifted to St. Louis for the next three games. Since each team has an outstanding pitching staff, momentum is tremendously important.

Following their Game 2 win, the Giants have the edge in this category and they will be looking to build on it.

Things have begun to click for the Giants offensively, as Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Hunter Pence have gotten a lot of support from the likes of Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco. Pagan has two home runs and five RBI this postseason, while Blanco has driven in four men in the two series.

A Giants offense that is running close to its peak production level should be trouble enough for the Cardinals.

In addition to their offense, the Giants starting rotation lines up very well for the rest of the series.

With Matt Cain heading to the mound in Game 3 for the Giants, the Cardinals are facing a tough matchup. Cain is the ace of the Giants staff, and he will look to swing the series in San Francisco’s favor.

St. Louis has arguably their best pitcher on the mound for Game 3. If the Cardinals cannot pick up a win with Kyle Lohse pitching, then they are in big trouble.

A Game 3 loss would concern the Cardinals because the Giants have starters that could keep them scoreless in any of the games remaining in the series.

Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito will likely be pitching in Games 4 and 5 of the NLCS (h/t Henry Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle). Chances are that they will be pitching against Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn.

Lincecum may have struggled this season, but his second half and his performance out of the bullpen this October have demonstrated that he is very close to being back at a Cy Young-level. In three appearances out of the bullpen this postseason, Lincecum has given up just one run on three hits in 8.1 innings.

This is obviously a boon to the Giants’ starting rotation, and the Cardinals will have a difficult time picking up a win against Lincecum if he brings his “A” game.

While Zito performed poorly in his last start of the NLDS, that does not mean that he will be an easy matchup for the Cardinals lineup. Even if the Cardinals are able to pick up one win against Lincecum or Zito after a Game 3 loss, they will be in a precarious situation.

As the series shifts back to San Francisco for what would be the final two games of the NLCS, the Giants would have their two best pitchers ready to take the hill. The feverish AT&T Park crowd will also be behind the Giants in Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS if they happen, and that advantage cannot be overlooked.

Madison Bumgarner put together a disastrous start in the opening game of this year’s NLCS, going 3.2 innings and giving up six earned runs. However, the Bumgarner should be back on his game and he should keep the Cardinals’ offensive production in Game 6 to a minimum.

Should the Cardinals be able to get past Bumgarner and force a Game 7, it will almost certainly be Cain facing off against them. Cain would be working on full rest for a pivotal Game 7.

For a team that has made its living off of late-game and late-series comebacks, the Cardinals could be in deep trouble if they put themselves in a situation where they need one against the Giants.

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On the heels of an emotional, gutty come-from-behind Game 5 victory over the Washington Nationals, the defending champion St. Louis Cardinals find themselves back in the National League Championship Series.

Waiting for them are the 2010 World Series champions, the San Francisco Giants. On paper, this appears to be a pretty even matchup, with both teams filled with players from their respective title teams. The regular-season bore that out as the teams split their six games with three wins apiece. 

Ultimately though, I have pinpointed five keys to this series for St. Louis to repeat as National League champions and defend its title in the Fall Classic. Here they are, starting with No. 5.

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Game 1 of the 2012 NLCS begins Sunday night in San Francisco. Here’s a look ahead at the starters and key matchups.

Starters: Lance Lynn (StL) vs. Madison Bumgarner (SF)   

Twenty-three-year-old left-hander Madison Bumgarner will go for San Francisco. Bumgarner finished the regular season 16-11 with a 3.37 ERA. His 8.25 K/9 is second best among Giants starters (Lincecum is No. 1). 

Bumgarner was responsible for the most lopsided game of the Division Series with Cincinnati. The Reds won 9-0. He earned the loss after allowing seven hits and a walk through four-and-one-third innings. 

Still, it would be overreacting to have major concerns about Bumgarner. He has good postseason experience, especially for someone his age. He went 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA through the Giants’ 2010 World-Series-winning playoff run. 

The great thing about the MLB Playoffs is that, before we can get over the shell shock from an earlier series, it’s on to the next one. St. Louis will need to forget last night’s excitement immediately. 

They will probably go with a pitching committee on Sunday. 

Lance Lynn started 29 games for the Cardinals during the regular season, but made it to the seventh inning just six times. He will be their man Sunday night. 

Lynn is 1-1 thus far in the 2012 postseason, despite not making a start. He also went start-less in the 2011 playoffs, although he did make 10 appearances. His most memorable moment thus far has been allowing Jayson Werth’s walk-off homer in Game 4 of the NLDS.

Lynn is actually even more of a strikeout pitcher than Bumgarner is. He averaged 9.20 K/9 in the regular season. Lynn also led the NL in the less-than-favorable sabermetric statistic, cheap wins.

Key Matchups

1. San Francisco Base Runners vs. Yadier Molina

Yadier Molina was by far the best defensive catcher through the 2012 season. His defensive WAR of 2.6 is a full win more than the second-best catcher.

Molina caught runners stealing on 48 percent of their attempts. Only Cincinnati’s Ryan Hanigan was better. It comes as no surprise, then, that San Fran stole just one base (and attempted just two) in their series with the Reds.

Will the Giants play conservatively once again? They didn’t in the regular season. The Giants finished 10th in the MLB with 118 steals.

2. Carlos Beltran vs. The World

Miguel Cabrera may have won the AL Triple Crown, but Beltran is competing for the postseason one. He leads everyone who made it to the DS in batting average (.409), is second in home runs (two) and has four RBI (tied for seventh).

Beltran’s career postseason OPS is now a staggering 1.306. Do you know how many players in the history of baseball have a higher one? ZERO!

San Francisco would be wise to ensure a difficult matchup for Beltran in each of his at-bats beyond the sixth inning. If that means ending somebody’s night on the mound a few batters too early, so be it.

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Up until about age of 12, the St. Louis Cardinals were my favorite Major League Baseball team.

I grew up in Dallas, an area that didn’t get the Rangers until 1972. I didn’t gravitate much to the Astros, who haven’t won a World Series in their five-decade existence.

The Cardinals, with Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Tim McCarver and Lou Brock, were the closest successful team.

Therefore, it’s hard for me to say this: I actually envy and hate the Cardinals more than any other team now, including the Yankees.

While the Yankees try to buy their titles, in the past two years the Cardinals have lucked into their postseason success more than any other sports franchise. Most recently, they were lucky that the Braves imploded in the last month of last season, losing a 10-game Wild-Card lead.

They were lucky that the Phillies, with the best record in baseball, had several players’ bats suddenly go cold as ice at key times, and that Edwin Jackson actually showed up to pitch decently in one win. 

They were lucky that the Rangers, who also had superior talent to the Cards, were twice only one strike away from clinching the World Series, but for some reason could not get a call for the final strike.

They were lucky this year that the MLB suddenly decided to add one Wild-Card team to each league, a decision so hastily made that they had to squeeze in games and give teams fewer off days to accommodate the change.

They were lucky that the Phillies could beat most teams, but not the lowly Astros when it counted, as they could have challenged for the second Wild Card.

And they were lucky that the Nationals mismanaged ace Stephen Strasburg‘s last couple of months, not giving him enough rest before shutting him down a few weeks before the playoffs. The Nats refused to put their best pitcher on their playoff roster, or even John Lannan, who was pitching better than most in the last month.

They opted to go with pitchers who broke down in key moments, like Sean Burnett. You think Washington could have used Strasburg or Lannan to get one more out in the ninth inning of Game 5, when closer Drew Storen imploded to blow a two-run cushion?  

Yes, the Cards were lucky to win Game 5. A team should not blow a six-run lead or a two-run cushion in the ninth. Pitching was supposed to be the Nats‘ strength, and it failed them miserably.

Granted, St. Louis has to be a good team to even be in position to make the playoffs, let alone to win once they get there.

But the last two years, they should not have been in position to make the playoffs. The Braves’ implosion, as well as the hasty change to add a Wild-Card team, are feats of luck, not skill.

This vast streak of good fortune for one team irks me more than the Yankees supposedly buying a title. The Yankees’ payroll this year was $196 million, but that’s not too far from the second-place spenders the Phillies, at $173 million.  

It especially hurts that the Cards’ good luck impacts teams that I like more but don’t have such luck, like the Rangers and Nationals, teams that were better over the course of the season, but did not get lucky at the right time. 

It’s just not fair that one team should have all the luck in baseball the past two years.

One day soon, the Cardinals lucky streak will end. I doubt I’ll feel any better.

The damage has already been done.

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After a dramatic comeback win against the Nationals, the St. Louis Cardinals continue their title defense against the San Francisco Giants. The series starts Sunday.

Below, we’ll give you a time and TV primer, and then a preview of the game. 

Game 1: Sunday, October 14th

Time: 8 PM ET

TV: FOX

Game 2: Monday, October 15th

Time: 8 PM ET

TV: FOX

Game 3: Wednesday, October 17th

Time:  4 PM ET

TV: FOX

Game 4: Thursday, October 18th

Time: 8 PM ET

TV: FOX

Game 5:* Friday, October 19th

Time: 8 PM ET

TV: FOX

Game 6:* Sunday, October 21st

Time: 4:30 PM ET

TV: FOX

Game 7:* Monday, October 22nd

Time: 8 PM ET

TV: FOX

*: if necessary

Now, onto the preview.

The Cardinals are coming off of a taxing, emotional come-from-behind victory against the Nats. The Giants won their series on Thursday, so they are well-rested and can set their pitching rotation. That’s a clear advantage for the Giants.

However, the Cards are plucky, and their come-from-behind victory is evidence of that. They’ll go down swinging.

Still, the Giants have seen the re-emergence of Tim Lincecum, who was outstanding out of the ‘pen in the NLDS. They have the option of keeping him in the bullpen, or putting him back in the rotation. Either way, having “The Freak” back on track is a huge benefit. Overall, the Giants’ bullpen has been spectacular.

Think about this: In Game 5, the Reds had runners in scoring position from the fifth inning on. No one scored. Part of that is on the Reds, but the Giants had to make the pitches count, and they did.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ bullpen ranked 20th in the regular season, with a 3.90 ERA. 

On offense, Buster Posey is slugging, and he’s a legitimate MVP candidate. Pablo Sandoval is getting back on track, as is Hunter Pence. Carlos Beltran is still dangerous for the Cards, and David Freese certainly knows how to get it done in the playoffs. 

With both teams knowing how to win in October, the intangibles are kind of even. In this case, pitching wins out. The Giants simply have a better rotation and a much better ‘pen.

That should lead to a Giants victory in six games. 

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