Kuzul

After a few rough patches, the St. Louis Cardinals have emerged from the first two weeks of the season as a veritable contender for the National League Central Division title. 16 games into the young season, the Cardinals are 8-8, one game behind the Cincinnati Reds for first place.

Despite being within a game of the divisional lead, it’s often hard to take such small sample sizes seriously. After all, that’s under one-tenth of the season.

It comes as a surprise, then, that Baseball Prospectus gives St. Louis a 55.3 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 49.2 percent chance of winning the division.

Baseball Prospectus runs a Monte Carlo simulation, playing through the rest of the season a million times based on projected winning percentages. With each game the team plays, their projection changes.

The Cardinals’ chances at the Central crown have changed dramatically over the last week. Before their series with the Diamondbacks, the Cardinals were 3-6. Baseball Prospectus gave them a 40.9 percent chance at October baseball, just barely ahead of Cincinnati.

Now, after emerging as an offensive powerhouse en route to winning series in Phoenix and Los Angeles, St. Louis has driven their chances up by 14.4 percent in the span of a week—the most by any major league team over that time.

All of this adds up to a projected .530 winning percentage for the Redbirds in 2011. That translates to an 88-win division championship season. St. Louis has a chance to improve those odds later tonight when they take on the Washington Nationals (projected .440 winning percentage) for a three-game series.

St. Louis has better chances than all but five teams to make the postseason, and better chances than any team in the AL Central. Their 88 projected wins are better than all NL teams except Philadelphia and San Francisco, last year’s NLCS opponents.

All of this points to a bright outlook for Redbirds fans in 2011.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Tony La Russa has gotten away with using Ryan Franklin as the Cardinals‘ closer for two years, and today should be the day he makes a change that is two years overdue. Franklin is nothing more than a replacement level pitcher who has benefited from high strand rate (85.7 percent in 2009), low BABIP (.249 in 2009 and .267 in 2010), and home run-to-fly ball ratios (3.2 percent in 2009 and 8.2 percent in 2010) during his reign as closer.

Franklin has gotten off to an ugly start this season. He has allowed six hits on eight hits, two walks, three home runs and striking out two in 4.2 innings. Franklin’s disastrous start to the 2011 season has nothing to do with diminished stuff, or an undisclosed injury. It comes down to the amount of contact Franklin has pitched to. Franklin’s BABIP this season is at .294, which is four points above the 2010 average.

His 2011 velocity remains at its 2009-10 levels (91.1 mph), but he is only generating the lowest amount of swinging strikes for any closer in baseball at 3.5 percent. In fact, he has the lowest percentage among all closer’s with 110 innings pitched since 2009 at 7.3 percent. Amazingly opponents have been able to make contact on 93 percent of Franklin’s pitches, and 93 percent of the pitches he throws out of the strike zone.     

It is a general rule of thumb that a closer should strikeout opponents at an above average rate, and induce a high amount of swinging strikes. Closers should be able to get out the most difficult situations without allowing a run, and they need to be able to have the ability to strikeout any hitter in these situations. Franklin’s highest profiles blown save,  2009 NLDS Game 2, serves as an example.

Franklin won’t pitch this badly for the rest of the season. His 37.5 percent home run to flyball ratio is unsustainable, but as noted earlier, his BABIP does not inflate his current .364 batting averaged against.

There may not be a great reliever in the Cardinals bullpen, but Boggs, then Motte, deserves a chance to close games. The Cardinals can’t afford to go down this bumpy road any longer.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The St. Louis Cardinals‘ impressive hot streak on offense came to an abrupt stop as the team entered a pitching battle today against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Chris Carpenter started the game for the Red Birds, facing off against the Dodgers’ Chad Billingsley. Carpenter gave up zero runs in his seven innings, and Billingsley responded with eight scoreless innings of his own.

The only person that hit well at all for the Cardinals today was outfielder Matt Holliday. Holliday got three of the team’s four hits against the Dodgers, including a 9th inning double against closer Jonathan Broxton. Third baseman David Freese got the team’s fourth hit following Holliday’s double. It was a blooper into shallow right field that scored Holliday, making the score 1-0.

Mitchell Boggs entered the game for Carpenter to handle the eighth inning. Boggs had a great appearance, as he faced three batters up and three down.

Most were probably hoping to see Boggs finish the game after the Cardinals took the lead in the 9th inning. However, manager Tony LaRussa sent in Trevor Miller to face Andre Ethier, who was the first batter of the 9th. Ethier answered back with a lead off double into right field.

LaRussa then brought in Ryan Franklin. It was a nail biting moment for fans, who were right to be nervous, as Matt Kemp ended the game with a two run walk-off home run.

It was a questionable move to begin with, as Franklin has appeared in only one inning in nine days. But what was even more concerning was that Franklin has blown three out of his four save opportunities before today.

Now, LaRussa is going to have to think long and hard about the facts at hand. In six appearances Franklin has blown four out of his five save opportunities, has given up three home runs, has an 0-2 record and is sitting with a 9.64 ERA.

At some point, the team has to realize that Franklin is not the closer he once was. Mitchell Boggs and Eduardo Sanchez are both very appealing options for the job. The team can not continue to lose close games due to blown saves. If the season comes down to a close division race, then these missed opportunities could mean everything.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

After the disappointing headlines that fans endured during the off-season regarding Albert Pujols and Adam Wainwright, and the woeful 2-6 start to the 2011 season, most fans were probably beginning to assume that they were about to witness 2010 version 2.0.

However, the team’s current West Coast road trip has injected the fan base with a large dose of hope.

Berkman has two multiple home run games and six total home runs in the past week. Pujols seems to have snapped out of his cold streak. He hit two homers during Friday night’s game against the Dodgers, and three total on the road trip; his recent hot streak has increased his average from less than .150 to a respectable .289.

The rest of the team has been doing its share as well. 

David Freese has been on a tear, raising his average to .370. Colby Rasmus has had a hit in every game of the road trip, including two home runs. And Yadier Molina had a four-hit night against the Dodgers on Friday.

The Cardinals‘ offense had potential that it never lived up to in 2010, so the team still has that potential; we just never thought it would emerge based on the poor 2010 performance, combined with the pitiful start to 2011.

Still, it has to be cautious optimism. The depth behind the current batting lineup is paper thin, so one or two injuries to key guys could ruin the team.

Also, the starting pitchers have done a remarkable job stepping up and filling the void left by Wainwright. So it’s uncertain whether or not an aging veteran like Chris Carpenter can be effective all season, or if a young player like Jaime Garcia can stay consistent.

The season is very young, and it will likely be a roller coaster ride, but fans have to be thrilled to see the elevated moods in the dugout, as well as the elevated offensive production.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Lance Berkman has shown the rest of baseball that he still has some life left in his bat during the Cardinals last few games in Arizona. Berkman had been struggling heading into Arizona with a .214/.290/.286 line with zero home runs.

Berkman had an incredible three games in Arizona, and coming into today’s off day, he has a line of .293/.356/.634 with four home runs. Berkman had one home run in his 123 plate appearances for the Yankees.

The real question remains whether Berkman went to the well for one last surge, or can Berkman return to numbers he put up in the last decade? 

There is some evidence in favor of comeback season for Lance. Berkman’s first week struggles were influenced by some bad luck. Overall, his season BABIP sits at .258 (the average is currently at .293), and his strikeout numbers (17 percent) and walk numbers (10 percent) were pretty solid before heading to Arizona.

Berkman’s batted ball numbers have been better during the first two weeks of this season. He is back to a lower groundball rate at 43 percent after a career high of 47.6 percent in 2010. Berkman has also been hitting the ball relatively hard with a 25 percent line drive rate.  

Looking at video of Berkman’s at-bats during the series, it is obvious that he found his power stroke to left and left-center field as a left-handed batter. Berkman’s power as a left-handed hitter has always been to that direction.

His most impressive home run was his opposite field grand slam on a 91 mph fastball on the outside corner from Ian Kennedy. Three of his four home runs came on fastballs that were hit to the opposite field, and the other came on a slider that was lined to right field.  

Berkman’s case becomes murky mostly because of where and against whom Berkman had his tremendous three games. Arizona’s Chase Field, like Coors Field or the Great American Ballpark, is known as a hitter’s haven.

Add to the fact that the Diamondbacks have one of the poorer pitching staffs in baseball. They have given up the second most home runs per nine innings, of course Chase Field inflates that number, and they have the third highest WHIP in baseball.

Juan Gutierrez, Sam Demel, Armando Galarraga and Ian Kennedy were the pitchers who served up Berkman’s long balls, Kennedy being the only above-average one of the bunch. 

Berkman has still struggled from the right side of the plate. In a very small sample size, he is currently 0-for-8 with two strikeouts. Berkman looked lost as a right-handed hitter last season, and while he has always been better from the left side, he usually supplied some power as a right-handed hitter.

With this small sample size, it is hard to say where his right-handed swing is, but it I have a hard time believing it is in good shape.

I think we can say after this week’s performance that Berkman won’t have a terrible repeat of 2010, when he battled health issues to start the season.

However, I don’t think we will see a complete return to his mid-2000 form (may be if he played all of is games in Arizona). I still expect a season of 20 home runs with a .270/.380/.475 line, somewhat closer to his 2009 numbers.   

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The city of St. Louis is in shambles.

The St. Louis Blues are wrapping up a blunder of a season, the Rams were 60 minutes away from a Wild Card berth but couldn’t seem to top a backup quarterback at best, and general manager John Mozeliak and the rest of the Cardinals front office accomplished virtually nothing during the offseason when dealing with the best player Major League Baseball has seen in decades…maybe ever.

And to add insult to injury, the city has watched the Cy Young runner-up of the past two seasons fall victim to Tommy John surgery. The city needs a pick-me-up, and as faithful fans always do, St. Louis will look to the diamond.

So much rides on the shoulders of the 2011 Redbird season. Success is a must. The Cardinals haven’t been in the playoffs since they were swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2009 NLDS, and haven’t won a playoff game since taking home the 2006 Series. It’s time to stop messing around.

With competition returning to the National League Central, the Cardinals find themselves finishing third in most predictions. But by no means should this team be counted out. A rough 2-3 record, and the loss of their clean-up hitter to an appendectomy for a few weeks highlights the 2011 season early on, but Mozeliak still stands firm saying, “There’s a high level of optimism with the team.” And there should be. 

Begin Slideshow

Following a horrendous spring training in which Jamie Garcia gave up 37 hits and 15 earned runs in his final 17 innings, many questioned whether or not Garcia would be able to build on top of his impressive rookie campaign, where he accumulated 14 wins.  

But Garcia took to mound against the San Diego Padres on April 3rd for his first start of the 2011 season and struck out nine batters in nine innings. It was an undeniably impressive effort by Garcia to start the season and it earned him his first win of 2011, as the Cardinals beat the Padres 2-0. It was a quick reminder to us that spring training is not always a telltale sign for things to come.  

However, it was not just his first win. It was the team’s first win. Their only win of the season, actually, which begs the question–Are the baseball gods taking shots at the Cardinals early on?  

The Albert Pujols contract dispute was bound to haunt the team all season. It would not be surprising if the situation is mentioned by the commentators at least once every single game and the players will obviously say that it has no effect on them. Then again, how could it not?  

Luckily, Pujols is the type of player to put that aside and focus on business. Although, he has not been getting down to business so far, as he is batting with a .125 average. He does have a home run though, although it came during the Cardinals’ 11-3 loss to the Padres on Saturday, April 2nd.   

Then, there is Adam Wainwright. His Tommy John’s surgery will keep him out of action for the entire 2011 season and it may even affect his performance in 2012.  

With Garcia’s impressive performance the other night, there may be some that believe he can fill the void left by Wainwright. But the “glass half empty” kind of fans might look at Garcia’s success as even more reason to be disappointed with Wainwright’s injury, as they may find themselves thinking of what could have been with Chris Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia all in the line-up.  

Then, of course, there is the disaster in the middle infield. Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker are playing terrible defensively. There has to be some agreement amongst the front office that the middle infield needs to be addressed at some point, especially since the team has a pitching philosophy that tries to get the hitter to make contact, which forces ground balls. That philosophy probably doesn’t do a lot of good when the middle infield can’t field ground balls.   

If only the front office had as much faith in Ryan Ludwick as they do in Skip Schumaker and the failed attempt to make a second baseman out of him, then the Cardinals’ might at least be in decent shape at the plate.  

Then there is Matt Holliday. Holliday played in the first game of the season, and he even hit a home run. But he has been absent from every other game, as he was rushed to the hospital for an emergency appendectomy (Come on, really? The gods hate the 2011 Cardinals that much?). But if Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel’s situation has any correlation, then Holiday should be back before Cardinal fans know it.  

Not an ideal start to the 2011 season for the Red Birds, but it wasn’t exactly an ideal offseason and spring training either, so what did anyone expect?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The emergency surgery to remove Matt Holliday‘s appendix certainly harms the heart of the St. Louis Cardinals lineup. But with the advent of laparoscopic procedures, the Cardinals have yet to put the All-Star slugger on the DL.  

His absence and the early-season struggles of Albert Pujols have left St. Louis hurting for runs early this season. But it could be worse.

Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria was

Former Cardinal Felipe Lopez has been tabbed to replace Longoria in the lineup.

St. Louis fans can only pity the plight the Rays are in, given their knowledge of Lopez’s capabilities at the hot corner. After a positive stint with the Redbirds for 43 games late in the 2008 season, Lopez was a tremendous disappointment in 2010 with St. Louis. He batted .231 with a paltry OPS of .651 as the fill-in for the injured David Freese, eventually being cut in September due to repeated tardiness and ineffectual play.

Holliday is optimistic he will return to the lineup soon.  

“I told them I would like to not go on the DL,” he stated in his first public comments since the surgery. Jon Jay and Allen Craig will hold down the fort in LF for the Cardinals. Jay’s emergence last season allowed St. Louis to trade Ryan Ludwick to pick up right-handed starter Jake Westbrook at the trade deadline last season—and Craig has been a very successful hitter in Triple-A Memphis the past few years.

Losing Holliday is a cause of concern for Cardinals fans, but given what they know about who the Rays have to replace Longoria, it doesn’t seem so bad.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

According to reports by ESPN.com, “Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday was having an appendectomy Friday and the team is unsure how long he will be out.”

While it is tentatively believed that it was caught rather early in the process and he should recover before a big chunk of the season is missed, nothing can be deemed a certainty.

This sudden bad break can be added to the growing list of hurdles being thrown in the path of the St. Louis Cardinals during the 2011 season.

First came a tough contract negotiation with Albert Pujols that ended with nothing more than an agreement to disagree until after the season concludes.

Then the Cardinals were slapped with a season-ending injury to dominant ace and Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright—a loss that I’m not sure any contender can overcome in a competitive division race.

Next was an injury to replacement ace Chris Carpenter that had placed the beginning of 2011 in question—though it thankfully turned out to be nothing more than a tweak.

Now St. Louis must face the realization of how quickly a season can go from all smiles to trepidation, and it’s becoming more and more clear how poor a decision Pujols’ $25-30 million per year would be for the franchise.

While the Cardinals fanbase is a loyal one and the organization is one of the most respected in the sport, they remain in a “mid-market” payroll threshold. They typically hover between $85 million and $100 million in total player salaries, and this is unlikely to change in the near future.

Pujols taking up between 25 and 30-plus percent of the payroll will limit their ability to place talent around him and will leave the team even more susceptible to injuries crippling their season (due to a lack of quality depth).

Instead of paying Pujols upwards of $300 million over 10 years, they can instead split that money up into five quality pieces on a playoff-caliber roster.

A farm system ranked anywhere from 17th to 24th in MLB (according to Baseball America and AOL Sporting News) will not provide quite enough cheap aid to compensate for the lack of additional payroll, and St. Louis would struggle to compete without receiving MVP-caliber seasons every year from their 30-something slugger.

Due to Wainwright’s uncertainty in terms of 2012 performance, they will likely have to pick up Chris Carpenter’s option in order to compete—further strapping their ability to sign quality free agents if retaining “The Machine.”

This experiment has been completed before in MLB, as the Texas Rangers handed Alex Rodriguez a little less than 25 percent of their payroll in a similar situation.

While St. Louis undoubtedly possesses a larger talent pool moving forward than Texas had in 2001, the general principles of why this can create an issue rang loud and clear.

Virtually no team can lose its ace and second-best hitter while continuing to contend, but the early misfortunes of 2011 are a clear reminder how much more it takes to win than one immortal offensive force.

Holliday will return before too long, and it is doubtful that his 2011 season will be derailed by this surgery. That said, injuries like these can ruin a team when it’s so dependent on the health and success of one high-salary player.

The Cardinals should take this as a wake-up call that as painful as it will be to watch Pujols walk out the door, letting him go may be the best thing for long-term success within the franchise.

The Seattle Mariners won 116 games the year after making that same tough decision, and the Minnesota Twins have not lost a beat after trading Johan Santana after 2007.

Additionally, the Colorado Rockies won 92 games the year after letting Holliday walk, and the Florida Marlins have done well since Miguel Cabrera left town (even while getting little help from any of their young trade acquisitions).

The decision is a very, very difficult one—one that most fans will rightfully lash out against. At the end of the day, however, it is oftentimes the right decision for small- to mid-market franchises to move on.

The Cardinals have won a championship thanks to Pujols’ immense talent, but it may be time to try winning one without him after 2011.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

When you see random and out of nowhere reports on a day like today, your first reaction is that it’s a bunch of malarkey. After all, today is April Fools Day, which by far and away is the dumbest of all the gimmick days in a year.

When the highly respected Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post Dispatch reported that St. Louis Cardinals’ OF Matt Holliday would be out four-to-six weeks following appendectomy surgery, I thought it was a cruel April Fools Day joke.

Unfortunately for Cardinal fans, his report was 100 percent true. Holliday will undergo appendectomy surgery today and will miss the next four-to-six weeks of the season.

I am beginning to think that 2011 won’t be the Cardinals’ season.

This is just as big a blow to the Cardinals as losing Adam Wainwright. Why would any team pitch to Albert Pujols now?

Until Holliday comes back, look for Tony LaRussa to use a combination of John Jay and Allen Craig in left.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com