Kuzul

Albert Pujols did everything he could possibly do and then some to try to get the St. Louis Cardinals to the playoffs.  But, with the Cincinnati Reds preparing for October, something clearly went wrong.  The Cardinals came into the 2010 season with World Series aspirations, but now they will have to settle for watching it on TV.

Pujols did have some help this year.  Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Matt Holiday all deserve credit for having excellent years.

But, seeing as the Redbirds missed the playoffs, there has to be some blame to go around, right?  Here are five people who failed to do their jobs this season:

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The off-season is fast approaching, with a mere few weeks left in the regular season. Of course the playoffs is the middle-man in this all, but the off-season is right around the corner.

Teams use the off-season to rebuild the roster that they currently have. The desire to recharge the roster and hopefully add a piece or two that takes the roster from pretender to contender is there. Other teams use the off-season to rebuild the farm system by trading veteran pieces.

The St. Louis Cardinals need to be apart of both groups to get back to champion status.

Now while the Cardinals did get exposed on two fronts, starting pitching and third base, this season thanks to injuries, there really was no way to avoid that. Your bench is there to help on occasion, not supply a key offensive cog for a whole season.

And the rotation? Only teams with great depth at the higher Minor League levels actually can take the kind of hits that St. Louis endured. In case you forgot, that would be losing Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse on consecutive days, and the former top draft pick Adam Ottavino succumbing to an existing shoulder problem (though his future was likely in the bullpen anyway, a la Mitch Boggs).

This off-season, John Mozeliak needs to get creative. And by that, I mean REALLY creative. The system has improved following the 2010 Rule Four draft, but those prospects are untouchable until June-August of 2011 due to the Pete Incaviglia rule.

With that rule making it harder to trade higher ceiling prospect, Mozeliak has to use Major League resources to his advantage.

The list that should be pinned up on every wall in Mozeliak‘s office this winter should consist of the following:

• Third baseman
• Right fielder capable of playing center field
• NOT trading Colby Rasmus
• Signing Albert Pujols long-term

While many believe that signing Pujols to a long-term contract should be on the front-burner, I’m of the select few that believe that it isn’t necessary to focus every aspect on that one item.

Remember last off-season? Mozeliak basically focused on signing Matt Holliday. As a result, he couldn’t jump at several free agents that would have been good signs because he wasn’t sure what he could spend or what he needed to do.

That led to signing Brad Penny…and no one else.

That cannot happen this year.

Remember also that there are options with Pujols that didn’t exist with Holliday.

First and foremost, Pujols can be traded to alleviate payroll concerns, improving the system depth, and leaves an open spot at first base that can be filled in the short-term by just about anyone you can think of (Adam Dunn tops that list). Holliday couldn’t be traded because of being a free agent.

And there weren’t many alternatives to Holliday. Jason Bay, sure, but he was never really an option to play under the Arch’s shadow.

You also have to remember that by Pujols’ own accounts, he loves St. Louis and never wants to leave. He’s not represented by some jackass (Scott Boras in case you didn’t know who I meant) that thinks in dollars and cents, instead of comfort and sense.

And there’s also the fact that Pujols would hit the market with the Yankees not in the bidding. Yes, you read right. They would not be bidding.

How do I know? Think logically.

Pujols will not be a full-time DH. He is a first baseman, and one of the best fielding first baseman around.

At last check, the Yankees have a pretty good fielding first baseman in Mark Teixiera. Splitting those two between first and DH would likely work, but would you really want to pay $250 for six seasons of two part-time first baseman (assuming Pujols would sign for over $25 million in his first five seasons, matching up with Teixiera‘s last five)?

Also remember that the Yankees would still owe Alex Rodriguez over $170 million (assuming he breaks home run records) in that same time period. Oh, and CC Sabathia would be making over $60 million in base salary in that same time frame.

And just to put the icing on the cake, the Yankees have $107 million committed to 2012 (the first year of Pujols’ new contract) as of right now. That doesn’t include Derek Jeter’s new contract, Mariano Rivera’s new contract (if he doesn’t retire), Andy Pettitte’s new contract (assuming he doesn’t retire) arbitration raises for Joba Chamberlin and Phil Hughes, or Robinson Cano’s two options.

New York won’t be bidding. Not even the Yankees could pull off, what I am educated guessing to be, $85million tacked on to that number, plus filling out the other roster spots on the team.

And remember that I’m guessing Pujols would make $25 million. I’m sure it would be higher than that if he hit the open market.

With the Yankees likely out of any bidding, unless Brian Cashman is so focused on an All-Star roster and is willing to pay that amount of money on two part-time first baseman, Pujols hitting the open market won’t be as dramatic as many try to make it.

Think of this logically. The Yankees (presumably, as I don’t put anything past Cashman) won’t be bidding. The Boston Red Sox will be right there, as will the Cardinals. And…

Um, anyone?

The Nationals could make a push, but Pujols isn’t dumb. He wants to win.

The Atlanta Braves couldn’t afford Teixiera, so it is highly unlikely that they would swing enough payroll space for an even bigger contract of Pujols.

The Baltimore Orioles made a push for Teixiera because of the hometown hero angle. Pujols doesn’t fit that.

You can also remove the bottom-dwellers that have little to no money: Pittsburgh Pirates, Florida Marlins, Oakland Athletics, Kansas City Royals, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Indians

If you’re counting (removing the Yankees, Cardinals, Nationals, and Red Sox from the list, since they have been mentioned already), that leaves: Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels or Anaheim as the only teams left.

Mariners and Rangers likely don’t have the room in payroll due to scaling back and focusing more on farm systems rather than investing large amounts of money into their teams.

The Phillies have Ryan Howard. The Mets have Jason Bay in left field, so Ike Davis is stuck at first base, unless he would be traded. Of course, big investments have killed the Mets recently, so wanting to spend on Pujols with both of those bogging them down are unlikely.

The Giants have a strong foundation of youth, but could be in the fray. The Dodgers, though, are out because the divorce case of the McCourt’s will be going on for years, or until they sell the team. Both of which put them too late into the race for Pujols and keeps them out.

The Tigers have been cutting money and have Miguel Cabrera locked up long-term. While a Pujols and Cabrera 3-4 would look good, the Tigers have a lot more problems to adjust than moving Cabrera to DH.

Never count out the Astros on big-time names, but with their sell-off of long-time franchise faces Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt, the Astros won’t likely be in.

The Reds. Joey Votto and mid-market. Only five words you need here.

The Angels have a lot of big contracts already on the books with more soon to come. They have also been reluctant to get into bidding wars for big-time free agents, so they’re out.

The Cubs? Well, sucking for over 100 years puts you in the market for a big bat. And with some bigger contracts expiring soon, the Cubs could give Pujols a contract.

Recap: after all of that text, we have the following teams that will bid for Pujols: Cubs, Giants, Cardinals, Nationals, Red Sox. Maybe the Yankees.

Since the Yankees are a maybe, they’re left out this next part. Teams Pujols would sign with: Cubs, Cardinals, Red Sox.

Cardinals are home. Cubs are close to home. Red Sox are traditional rich, like the Cardinals and the Cubs.

See why I’m not really worried? There’s three teams that can really sign Pujols.

He’ll be back.

Now onto more pressing matters.

Third base, here we come.

David Freese isn’t going to return until the end of Spring Training at the earliest. Consider him out of the race for Opening Day third baseman.

Outside of recently drafted Zach Cox, the Cardinals don’t really have any good third base prospect. Daniel Descalso could slide over to the hot corner, but he’s a better bet to stick at second base and upstage Skip Schumaker next season.

Matt Carpenter is a 25 year old at Double A. That isn’t horrible, considering he wasn’t drafted until after he graduated college, but still, not that impressive. Allen Craig Jr, basically.

Speaking of Craig: he isn’t trusted at the hot corner. Cross him off the list.

Tyler Greene wouldn’t be horrible, but I, like many, like him for upstaging Brendan Ryan next spring and taking over shortstop.

Not much depth.

In steps Alex Gordon. Yes, Alex Gordon.

Gordon isn’t look at as favorably in Kansas City anymore. There have been rumors that Kansas City may look into trading him.

Why not to the Cardinals?

Changes of scenery work all of the time, and Gordon is still extremely talented. If given the proper coaching and enough time, he will put it together.

And of course, if Gordon doesn’t put it together, Freese will be healed and ready to go by May. The duo could even platoon if maximized both of the players.

The deal would be tricky. There are several factors:

1. Gordon will only be making $2-2.5 million in 2011 if he goes to arbitration
2. The Royals will still want a decent package for Gordon, as they are very unlikely to non-tender him and let him go for free

This leads to this proposed package:

3B Alex Gordon for RHP Kyle Lohse (with St. Louis paying $22 million of the $23.75 million still owed), RHP Adam Reifer, and 1B/RF Allen Craig

Now hear me out before I get completely verbally bashed by all of you readers.

Lohse, will ineffective, needs to get out of St. Louis (so don’t worry about that no-trade clause). Even if pitching for the Royals, he will do better in Kansas City than in St. Louis, a town that flat-out does not like him.

A new environment, like with Gordon, could also reinvigorate Lohse. Of course, it might not as well, and if it doesn’t, oh well. Release him. Paying him $1.75 million over two seasons isn’t bad, even if he doesn’t pitch well.

Craig would add a power right handed bat. If given actual, uninterrupted playing time, Craig will hit. He has everywhere in the minors, and he even flashed good batting skills when given steady time in St. Louis. With well less than a year of service time and a lot of shuttle time between the majors and minors, Craig would offer a good, cheap bat for three seasons (shouldn’t be a Super Two).

Reifer, a power right handed bullpen arm, would match up with Joakim Soria extremely well. Reifer has had some slight control problems in his Minor League career. And it isn’t because he can’t hit spots. It is because he throws that hard. Throwing hard with movement and controlling it at that high velocity is difficult.

And I’m not done pleading my case. Think of what a trade of Gordon would do:

• Mike Moustakas can start at third base on Opening Day
• Eric Hosmer can start at first base on Opening Day

Gordon, playing both of those positions, can be used an excuse not to play the young power duo on Opening Day. By shedding Gordon, you also shed the excuses, and add some decent quality in return for Gordon.

See, so it isn’t as horrible as it looks right away. Is this deal greater for Kansas City or St. Louis? That thumbs up goes directly to St. Louis because of trading Lohse and adding third base depth, but Kansas City doesn’t make out horribly here. Paying less than a million a season for a back-end starter and opening spots for top prospects to play is a major win…even if that back-end starter is Lohse.

Would Kansas City make this trade? They would on my PS3, but I couldn’t tell you (and neither can you readers, despite what you believe) for sure in this real world.

This third and last one (as not trading Rasmus is a note, not a section) is about finding a right fielder who can play center.

B.J. Upton, anyone?

Upton has struggled thus far in 2010 and didn’t fare much better in 2009. With his payday likely to go over $5 million, the Rays would do well with shedding Upton.

Again though, it won’t be free. Upton will not be non-tendered, and the Rays will expect fair value in return, which is understandable. Despite his offensive struggles, Upton has still put up decent numbers in 2009-10 and is still an above-average center fielder.

The addition doesn’t stop with Upton, however.

Carl Crawford is a free agent at the end of the season and the Rays want to re-sign him. Of course, it isn’t entirely necessary because of their top prospect Desmond Jennings being on the cusp.

To be able to re-sign Crawford, the Rays have to shed money. What better way of doing that than dealing a starting pitcher who is in line for a a good raise?

I’m not talking Matt Garza. I’m talking about James Shields.

Shields is a classic buy low case.

He is throwing a lot of innings, which is good. He isn’t pitching well, which is bad.

His innings logs, however, from the 2009-10 season are a good indicator of what he can do.

Shields is well on his way to throwing over 200 innings yet again, but is also on his way to making a lot of money from 2011-2014 (guaranteed $4.25 million in 2011, and $28 million in three club options from 2012-14). By trading Shields, the Rays could replace him with Jeremy Hellickson on the cheap, but not lose the production.

So, in theory, by trading Upton and Shields, the Rays could save back more than $9 million for the 2011 season alone, giving them the financial wiggle room needed to re-up with Crawford. It would also put Jennings in his more natural spot of center field, rather than left field.

So without further ado, I present you the package of players that would go to Tampa Bay:

OF B.J. Upton, RHP James Shields for OF Jon Jay, RHP Richard Castillo, RHP Francisco Samuel, RHP Casey Mulligan, 1B/OF Mark Hamilton, OF Daryl Jones

Upon first look, this looks more quantity than quality for Upton and Shields. And as that is sort of correct, read on.

Mulligan is a 22 year old flame thrower that has movement and control. A converted catcher, a la Jason Motte, Mulligan has a bright future in a bullpen. With the Rays constant bullpen woes, adding Mulligan could be vital.

The same goes for Samuel. Samuel is a walk machine, but throws hard. If given the proper guidance and a good handling catcher, his walk rate will improve. It will always be high, but so will his strikeouts. As a seventh or eight inning starter, he would be very good. As a firefighter, you might pull out some of your hair.

Castillo is a real add. Not even 20 years old yet, he doesn’t get the coverage he should get. He has struggled thus far in the Florida State League, but will regain traction next season when he is more healthy. Not to mention he’ll know how to pitch, not so much throw.

Castillo, if you don’t know, was signed out of the Venezuelan Summer League. He hasn’t actually pitched against real hitters yet, except in 2009 when he first entered the FSL. Luck contributed early on to that success he had in 2009.

As for Hamilton, he is the new Adam Dunn. He has a lot of power, is a decent average hitter, but isn’t amazing with the glove (but he isn’t nearly as bad as Dunn is). Another prospect that doesn’t get the credit he deserves, Hamilton has raked in his Minor League career.

With Carlos Pena ready to hit free agency, Hamilton would be a good guy to take a look at to be the DH for the club. His left handed power would fit nicely in the middle-half of the Tampa lineup.

Jones is a former top prospect who has had knee problems. Best word to describe Jones: Crawford. He has speed, decent power, and is a good fielding left fielder.

Jones has stalled a little in Double A, but as I just said, knee problems contributed to that. He recovered nicely this season if you can avoid his average and OPS columns.

My normal disclaimer: would Tampa Bay make this trade? On my PS3, they would. In real life, who knows? You readers don’t know (I’m tired of THOSE comments in the comment section), so just give opinions.

Also, I’m not even sure if the Cardinals have considered asking about Upton and/or Shields, but I do know that the Rays are looking to move one or both this off-season, along with Garza.

With all of this out there, let me give my roster for 2011 and call it a day:

2B – Schumaker

RF – Upton

1B – Pujols

LF – Holliday

CF – Rasmus

C – Molina

3B – Gordon

SS – Ryan/Greene

SPs: Carpenter, Wainwright, Garcia, Shields, McClellan

RHP: Salas, Sanchez, Motte, Boggs, Franklin (CL)

LHP: Miller, MacLane

Enjoy.

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Colby Rasmus may have a one-way ticket out of St. Louis this off-season, if the reports are true he’s unhappy with the Cardinals. 

Rasmus has denied asking to be traded back in July, but Albert Pujols made a pointed comment this weekend that if Rasmus didn’t want to play for the Cardinals, then he should be traded.

Tony La Russa was also quoted as saying it’s up to management, not Rasmus or his teammates, to decide whether he remains in St. Louis.

One thing is for certain: the Cardinals shouldn’t have trouble finding willing trade partners. 

Rasmus only just turned 24 on Aug. 11, and, as I write this, he has an .848 OPS.  Not many center fielders hit like that at any age.

As for Rasmus’ center field defense, the only thing I can say for certain is fangraphs’ UZR ratings don’t tell you jack.

According to UZR, Rasmus was a great defensive center fielder in 2009 and a poor one in 2010.  It’s possible, but I doubt the accuracy of UZR more than I tend to think that Rasmus really declined so steeply in from 2009 to 2010.

If I were the Cardinals, I wouldn’t get rid of Rasmus unless it’s really clear that he’s unhappy and likely to be a future cancer.  He’s too promising to send away otherwise.

A new Marlin

A 28-year-old rookie from the Dominican named Adalberto Mendez won his first major league start tonight as the Marlins beat the Phillies tonight 7-1.  I love these kind of September stories.

I really don’t think Mendez is good enough to have much of a major league career.  He came into this season with an unimpressive 3.98 career minor league ERA (although he has better ratios), and this year he was no world beater, mostly at AAA New Orleans (3.98 ERA again).

However, Mendez was good enough tonight and beat the Phillies handily in a game the Phillies really needed to win. 

Just because a pitcher has never appeared in the majors before doesn’t necessarily mean he isn’t good enough to shut down one of MLB’s better offenses, at least for one night.

Prior’s comeback journey

Mark Prior struck out two, allowed two hits and a walk but no runs in one inning of work in his first appearance in AAA ball since 2006.

If you haven’t heard, Prior spent a month pitching for the Orange County Flyers in the independent-A Golden Baseball League. 

He made nine appearances there without allowing an earned run.  His line was 11 IP, five hits and five walks allowed and 22 Ks.  Obviously good enough for the Rangers to think Prior was worth another opportunity.

The Oklahoma City RedHawks made the Pacific Coast League play-offs, so one has to think that Prior will get a few more opportunities to pitch at the AAA level before the Rangers decide whether to promote him to the major league team before the end of September.

On the subject of AAA baseball, the Beavers have just finished their season and will apparently be leaving Portland, a Pacific Coast League town for most of the last 108 seasons going back to 1903. 

The Beavers’ ballpark is being retrofitted to lure a Major League Soccer team to Portland.

Since the last round of expansion in 1998, Greater Portland been the largest American metropolitan area without a major league franchise.

Unfortunately, given the current dreadful state of the economy, it will probably be years before another round of major league expansion finally brings a team to Portland.

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I don’t usually write about teams that I am a fan of-admittedly, that’s partly because my teams aren’t always doing something interesting, so it’s easier to write about the current events. But it does also help keep my writing mostly unbiased. However, with both MLB.com and ESPN.com are reporting that Cardinals center fielder Colby Rasmus has had various issues as of late, ranging from unhappiness to an alleged rift with manager Tony La Russa, I feel that I need to weigh in. I don’t claim to know anything more than what is said in the articles on the two aforementioned websites. However, that doesn’t mean I can’t put my two cents in on the matter.

Both stories seem to agree on the basic points: Colby Rasmus has had some problems adjusting to the Major Leagues, and he has denied rumors that he has requested a trade. Also, both mention what Albert Pujols has to say on the matter and mentioned Rasmus’s supposedly strained relationship with St. Louis skipper La Russa.

First, I’ll mention Pujols’ thoughts on the subject; they seem to me to be addressing the reports that Rasmus requested a trade, rather than his teammate himself. This is an important distinction, as it means that Pujols’ presence in the article is more than likely meant to draw attention to the article, rather than provide any confirmation to the story. Rasmus has denied that he requested a trade, and I have no problem accepting that. The story may well be a rumor taken to press to attract attention. That sort of thing happens.

I also don’t mind if he has had problems adjusting to being in the Majors. Rasmus isn’t even a month over 24; not everyone can be a Jason Heyward, who seems to have been born specifically for the purpose of playing baseball professionally. If he takes a little longer than some players, I’m fine.

No, the part of this story that worries me the most is the story of La Russa and Rasmus having issues getting along. If this is the case, then I think that the Cardinals may have to let La Russa walk this winter. 

It isn’t easy to say that, after all of the success that he’s brought to the organization. But there are several reasons that it would need to be done. La Russa isn’t exactly the easiest manager to get along with. He’s run several players out of town in his time (including one of my favorites, Scott Rolen, but I’ll try to leave bias out of this). However, more importantly, he doesn’t always make sound judgements as a manager. I don’t even live in St. Louis, so I can only see the Cardinals when they’re on national television or when they come to town. Despite this obvious limitation, I can still instantly recall at least two games this season where his over-managing likely cost the Cardinals the game (the two I have in mind specifically being the 20-inning debacle against the Mets in April, and the Cubs game last month in which La Russa pulled all of the starters only to see the back-ups mount a near comeback). Of course, we can bicker all day about what might or might not have happened if La Russa hadn’t been making calls.

However, we can definitely show that La Russa hasn’t been putting the best players on the field. For example, as of late, Pedro Feliz and Skip Schumaker have been the starters at third and second base, respectively. You may recognize these two as two of the worst players in the majors. Going by Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement calculations, the two have each been worth -.1 wins this year in their time with the Cardinals (keep in mind WAR is a cumulative stat).  The Cardinals have THREE players on the bench who have a higher WAR in less playing time (Tyler Greene, Felipe Lopez, and Aaron Miles). Yet, Tony La Russa continues to run out one of the worst infields in the majors, even though the Cardinals are trying for a playoff spot (and this isn’t even accounting for Brendan Ryan, who has managed one win ENTIRELY through his glove).

At the same time, it seems La Russa has been hesitant to guarantee Rasmus anything. Last year, he continued to put Rick Ankiel in the line-up despite Rasmus’s better numbers (2.3 wins to 0). When Ryan Ludwick returned from the DL, La Russa chose to sit Rasmus in order to keep Jon Jay in the line-up. Moments like these seem to indicate at best that La Russa isn’t fond of Rasmus, and, at worst, that he both dislikes Rasmus and has a blind devotion to struggling veterans that may cost the team a post-season. At the very least, I would say a 24-year old center fielder with All-Star-level ability is more valuable to the Cardinals going forward than a 65-year old manager. Again, I say this with all due respect and gratitude with La Russa and what he’s done for the team; this is merely what I think would benefit the franchise going forward.

I don’t know if this is truly an either/or situation. But if it truly does come down to keeping Tony La Russa OR keeping Colby Rasmus happy, I would have to side with Rasmus.

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With news that Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus has requested a trade, a team with an already cloudy future did not get any clearer. 

Here are five reasons why Cardinal fans’ motto for the rest of the season should be “playoffs or bust.”

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Coming into the 2010 baseball season, there was no clearer choice than the St. Louis Cardinals as National League Central Division champs.

They had Albert Pujols, the best player in baseball, and possibly the best 3-4 combination in Pujols and Matt Holliday.

Their starting rotation, led by co-aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, was thought to be one of the best in baseball.

However, even after a win against Cincinnati on Friday night, the Cardinals trail the division leading Reds by seven games, and are looking more and more like a team struggling to stay in the Wild Card race, where they trail the Phillies by five games.

So how did such a promising season get to this point? Here are 10 reasons it’s gotten this way.

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St. Louis Cardinals fans, dust off your sirens, prepare your white flags, and clutch your shiny red buttons.

For the first time since 2003, it’s panic time.

After sweeping the Reds in Cincinnati to take a one game lead in the division and looking like prime pennant contenders in the National League, the Cardinals have been, well, terrible.

Against mediocre competition (their opponents over that span are a combined 355-443), St. Louis has gone 5-12, getting swept by Houston, and losing series to last place Washington and Pittsburgh, as well as the Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers.

Meanwhile, the Reds have beaten down on a weak schedule of their own, going 13-4 and taking a commanding eight game lead in the National League Central. St. Louis also trails Philadelphia by five games in the Wild Card race.

So how did it get this way, and who’s to blame?

The biggest blame can be placed on the offense. Since the Reds series, the Cardinals have averaged 4.2 runs, gone deep 0.9 times, and struck out 6.4 times per game. They have scored three runs or less in 10 of their 12 losses. They’ve made fourth and fifth starters look like aces. In fact, two of their wins came against former Cy Young winners Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum. However, they’ve been handled by John Lannan, J.A. Happ, Madison Bumgarner, and Dave Bush, among others.

The pitching, which has been shouldering the team most of the season, has snapped under all that weight. Staff ace Adam Wainwright has lost three straight starts for the first time in his career. Co-ace Chris Carpenter has been roughed up as well, losing his past two starts. The only bright spot on the staff has been Jaime Garcia, who has gone given up just five runs in his three starts since Cincinnati, going 2-1 over that span.

Maybe some of the blame can be placed on the front office. After all, they traded Ryan Ludwick in an effort to acquire Jake Westbrook, basically swapping a slugging outfielder for a starting pitcher, something they already have a plethora of. They traded a need for a luxury. In fact, this trade may be the root of the problem. Granted, Ludwick has cooled off considerably since moving to PetCo Park, a notorious pitchers’ haven. His average has dropped to .221, and he his OPS has dropped to .649, well below his .280/.350/.512 line from 2007-09 with the Cardinals. Conversely, Westbrook is 1-3 with a 4.03 ERA. However, his WHIP, H/9, BB/9, and HR/9 are all lower than they’ve ever been, while his strikeout rates are also career bests. While Westbrook has been good, he just hasn’t helped the Cardinals win.

The final piece to this trade is not a player who departed or arrived, but Jon Jay, who took over for Ludwick in right field. Since the trade, Jay has batted .266, with just one home run. Now that his abnormal .440+ BAbip has mellowed to .308 for the month, we have a truer sense of what type of player Jay is: a backup outfielder, one that the organization placed too much faith in by trading their regular starter because they though Jay could handle the job.

However, here’s the real kicker. In their 17 game slump, St. Louis has won games by three, four, nine, eight, and two runs. However, only one of their losses has been by more than three runs. That gives them a Pythagorean Win-Loss Record of 9-8 over that span, a far cry from their actual 5-12 record. All this shows us is that they’ve lost several close games.

In fact, they’ve left 7.6 runners on base each game, as opposed to a 7.1 number for the rest of the season (which includes the 20-inning game in which the Cardinals left 22 runners on). Here’s where it gets bad. Ryan Ludwick bats .389 with runners in scoring position, and .308 with two outs, and an amazing .429 with two outs and RISP. Jon Jay, by comparison, bats .356 with runners in scoring position. Jay also bats .189 with two strikes. The difference was never more visible than today, when Jay grounded out to the pitcher with the bases loaded to end the Cardinals’ scoring threat.

Can we say that Ludwick would’ve gotten a hit there? Not for sure. But with Ryan Ludwick, the Cardinals would not be leaving 7.6 men on base each game. Whether you blame the front office, the offense, Jay in particular, or Tony LaRussa, whose lack of a consistent lineup card and insistence to keep Colby Rasmus out of the lineup has infuriated Cardinals fans and writers, one thing is clear: if they don’t turn this around soon, they’ll be watching the playoffs from their couches.

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If the season ended today, the St. Louis Cardinals would fall short of a playoff berth.  This failure could be epic, it could be historic, and it could be something we never witness again.

However, the failure to make the playoffs might not be the only thing that happens to the Cardinals, they could have a Triple Crown winner, MVP, Rookie of the Year, and Cy Young Award winner on their team.  No other team has ever had a collection of talent like that during one season.  Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, and Jaime Garcia could very well become the first.

Imagine for a moment how epic of a failure this could be?

One could argue this would be the greatest triumph in baseball history. 

Pujols would have the greatest season in baseball history since some guy named McGwire broke Roger Maris’s home run record—and missed the playoffs, I might add.  Pujols would win the first Triple Crown in over 40 years and would jump into second place all time with four MVP wins.  This type of season is all you can ask of your best player, it is a dream for a marketing department, and he’ll be sitting on the couch eating Cheetos in October.  

Adam Wainwright would win his first Cy Young Award.  Jaime Garcia would win the Rookie of the Year in a season that produced perhaps the best batch of baseball players in a generation.

Despite all of the success, the Cardinals will lose the division to the Cincinnati Reds and fail to manage even a Wild Card berth.

Snapping back to reality, there is still a lot of baseball left to be played.  The Cardinals could still make the playoffs, and even if they do not, it is doubtful that baseball writers would give all of these awards to a team that does not make the playoffs.  And of course, Joey Votto, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Jason Heyward will ultimately have something to say about this.

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It seems like most of the superstars of the ’00s have given us a reason to be disappointed in them. Bonds, A-Rod, Big-Mac, Slammin’ Sammy and Manny, among others, have all come up tainted. It leaves a fan incredulous, ready to accept that any player with big numbers is dirty.

As a result players who are not dirty end up getting painted with the same broad brush as players that are. If success is the barometer of cheating, then there’s something wrong with your barometer. 

It’s an unfair assessment, for each player should be reviewed individually. That’s not to say we shouldn’t suspect anyone unless they’ve failed a test, but I don’t think that production alone merits suspicion of steroid use.

In the case of Albert Pujols, when you review the numbers carefully, it becomes apparent that there’s reason to believe he’s a player for the ages, and doesn’t owe one bit of his success to cheating. Below are the common arguments against Pujols, and why they are flawed. 

Argument One: It’s Obvious He’s Juicing, Just Look at the Numbers! 

Well, yes, let’s do that.  First, let’s look at some other players who we know juiced (whether they admitted it or not) and see what a juiced players numbers look like. Prior to 2000, Barry Bonds never had a season with a lower than 10 AB/HR ratio, and had a career average of 15.4 AB/HR.  After he started juicing (allegedly), he exploded and over the rest of his career he averaged 9.1 AB/HR/ He increased his HR rate by 60 percent overnight. That’s what it looks like when you are juicing.

From 1989-1997 Sammy Sosa averaged 1 HR for every 19.4 AB, then jumped to 10.1 over the next four seasons. McGwire says he used them “on and off” for a decade. If you look at his ratios over the decade, it’s easy to draw conclusions about when he’s using and when he’s not, for they’re all over the place.

Over 16 seasons he averaged 10.6, but in those 16 seasons, 13 of them were either one whole number up or down from that ratio. If you look at A-Rod’s numbers they’re all over the place too, varying from 10.8 to 22.6 (if you don’t count his “learning” years.)

On the other hand Albert Pujols best (10.9) and worst season (17.7) are only separated by a moderate margin of 6.8. He’s never gone more 3.5 AB/HR of either side of his career average. And his number has never been ridiculously high, just always very good. Additionally his ratios aren’t all that different from players like Henry Aaron, who is free of steroid (though not “greenie”) suspicion by virtue of the era he played in. 

Also, you don’t see huge totals coming from Pujols. His biggest home run season is 49, which is prodigious no doubt, but not steroid prodigious. Albert’s numbers are more note-worthy for other reasons, particularly consistency. Consistency is not a thing that you jump to when you think juicing.

When you think juicing you think cycling, and cycling means “streaky.” Albert’s “the Machine.” The single most impressive thing about him is his consistency. Every year he’s batted over .300, with 30 HR and 100 RBI. No one else in the history of the game has started their career with that kind of consistency.

And it’s not just season to season, it’s month to month. His HR splits are April-71, May-73, June-63, July-62, August-74, Sep-51. Furthermore, if you look at the months year by year he’s rarely below 5 HR for a month, or over 10. Not counting months when he was on the DL for a significant portion, he’s only failed to hit at least 5 twice, and he’s only gone over 10 four times. 

The numbers don’t indicate he’s juicing, they suggest the opposite. You can’t merely look at the volume of production, you have to look at the type of production. The total accrued numbers may reflect what you’d expect from someone juicing, but the manner in which they were accrued is exactly the opposite of what you’d expect to see.

You don’t see numbers jumping up and down—neither month to month nor year to year—as you would expect to see them from a cycling steroid user. What you see is a consistent performer. And if he was consistently ‘roiding, we should have seen a failed test by now. When people ask, what about the numbers, the answer is, “yes, what about the numbers?”

Argument Two: Just because he hasn’t been busted yet, doesn’t mean he’s not dirty, nor does it mean he won’t be. 

True. But not being busted doesn’t mean that he’s guilty either. There’s a problem with an attitude of guilty by suspicion. If you are truly an advocate of this position, then I’d just ask you, what would it take to prove to you that he’s clean? What kind of society is it when we start adopting an attitude of guilt being proven by assumption. 

Since when is not failing a drug test proof that you’re juicing? Let me introduce to you the possibility that not failing a drug test might be because you’re not juicing. The same testing that Bonds failed, A-Roid failed and Manny failed, Pujols passed.

He was tested six times last year. We also know that they are testing for masking agents—if you don’t believe it look no further than fertile Manny Ramirez. We know that testing has caught players like A-Rod, Manny and Clemens.

So why is the testing working for the other guys but not on Pujols? What does he know that they don’t? How’s he passing without even cycling? Without an answer to how he’s getting around the drug testing and the other investigations while the other stars who are guilty are getting busted, you have to lean towards Albert being clean. 

What about Jason Grimsley and Chris Mihmfield? 

Shortly before the Mitchell Report was released it was rumored that Albert Pujols would be named in it. Of course he wasn’t. However Jason Grimsley was and there was a name blacked out in the released version, which deadspin.com revealed (wrongly) was Chris Mihlfield. Keith Oberman followed up on the story and the next thing you knew it was a national story, stirred by the fact that Mihlfield was also Pujols strength trainer.

There was one problem with the story—it was wrong. Mihlfield wasn’t the name blacked out. Furthermore, Mihlfield will not work with anyone who is juicing, as he stopped working with Grimsley the moment he learned he was using.

Still the rumor persists among those who insist that Pujols is dirty. In essence their argument is that Grimsley was dirty and worked with Mihlfield. Mihlfield works with Pujols, ergo, Pujols is dirty. It’s a fallacy of an undisturbed middle. The argument goes: some of A is a B and some of A is C, therefore all Bs are Cs.

It’s probably the most common fallacious argument people make, and it’s made here, so even if the facts were true, it would be a bad argument. When you add to that the fact that some of “A actually isn’t C” i.e. Mihlfield doesn’t take any juicers for clients, it makes it even worse. If anything, the fact that Mihlfield works with Pujols is evidence that Pujols is clean, not dirty. 

Having answered the three principle arguments against Pujols (weak as they are) I want to point out another argument for Pujols being clean. And, it’s the best argument.

Pujols is a devout Christian, and it means a lot to him. He insists that he wear his uniform properly, including his hat, and that his teammates do as well, out of respect for the game. He doesn’t smoke. He doesn’t drink. He doesn’t have tattoos. He doesn’t go out to clubs. He doesn’t chew tobacco. He married the mother of a girl with Downs’ Syndrome (not his) and adopted her. He started a charity fund for her.

He’s won the NL “Player of the Year” award three times, which is voted on by players. He’s also won the Marvin Miller Man of the Year award, which is an award for on and off field activities which is voted on by players. He’s also won the Roberto Clemente award.

Randy Johnson said of him, “I think Albert is the one guy in our game who could go to the opposition, say something, and they’d listen. That’s how highly people regard him.” The point I’m making here is that it’s not just about steroids. It’s the whole package. He doesn’t just talk, he backs it up with his way of life. Taking steroids would be inconsistent with everything else about him. 

Finally, there’s what he has to say about it himself. 

“I can understand why people don’t know who they can trust or their hero was caught. I want to be the guy people look up to. But I want to be the person who represents God, represents my family and represents the Cardinals the right way. So many people can’t wait until I do something negative. I can’t understand it. That’s sad, because I want to be that poster boy in baseball. Just give me the chance. If we’re in a hotel and a woman gets on the elevator by herself, I’ll wait for the next one.”

“People have their agenda. You have to be careful who you can trust. It’s the same thing with pictures. I’ll have my picture taken on the field, but not off the field. Nowadays with photo technology, you can do so many things. I see teams take their jerseys out when the game is over. To me, that’s not professional. I don’t care what you do when you get off the field, but don’t do it on the field. You don’t want kids to see negative things.” 

When you take a cursory glance at his overall numbers from the last decade and see their similarity to those who have been caught it’s easy to just conclude he’s doing the same thing they are. However, if you take a closer examination, the numbers tell a different story. And when you take the man as a whole, you see a completely different story.

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If there are two subjects I love, they are baseball and politics. I have had various times in my life when I have been obsessed with both, and I have had various times in my life when I’ve had to shield my eyes from both.

Despite my interest in the two realms, I am always surprised when the two cross over. Sure, conservative political commentator George Will wrote one of the great baseball books of all time, and sure former President George W. Bush owned the Texas Rangers.

Still, I never think of baseball players as political entities and I never think of politicians as sports fans.

And perhaps this is for the best.

I liked Jim Bunning a whole lot more before I found out he was an ultra-right wing crackpot from Kentucky. (Which isn’t to say that all ultra-right wing politicians are crackpots. I very much respect Senator Tom Coburn from Oklahoma, and I find myself to be very fond of Ron Paul. But Bunning is a crackpot.)

I also liked Curt Schilling a whole lot more before he started campaigning for President Bush in 2004.

Nevertheless, I respect the political persuasions of professional athletes, and I also respect their right to support their candidates. Schilling voted for Bush; to me it seemed like a bad idea, but big whoop.

When I found out that Peyton Manning, one of my favorite athletes in the world, was a contributor to the McCain campaign, I was a bit taken aback. In retrospect, though, if I made the money Peyton Manning makes every year, I’d probably find myself on the “less taxes” side of the equation as well.

Big whoop.

Nevertheless, I do find it absolutely shocking that Albert Pujols could be politically tone deaf enough to participate in Glenn Beck’s political rally in Washington this weekend. In order to demonstrate why, let me relay the following conversation I had with my wife on our way from Philadelphia to Baltimore on Saturday morning:

Her: “We’re lucky we’re not going to the Smithsonian instead of the Maryland Science Center.”

Me: “Oh yeah? Why’s that?”

Her: “Because Glenn Beck is having some sort of rally on the Mall, and Al Sharpton is having a rival rally at the same time.”

Me: “Holy crap! That’s gonna be a zoo.”

Her: “Yeah.”

Me: “So, where’s the rally for reasonable, middle of the road people being held?”

At the end of the day, Glenn Beck (and to no less a degree Al Sharpton) is an opportunist; he says incendiary things that rouse his supporters, and weaves that support into gold. Beck is not a politician; he is a rabble-rouser, and someone who stirs up trouble to further his own personal gains.

Wanna know what the difference between a national television personality and a national politician is? If a national television personality can get 20 million viewers per week, he will be a huge success; if a national politician were to get 20 million votes in an election, it would be a disaster.

And so it is that on Saturday, Albert Pujols allowed himself and his image to become part of Glenn Beck’s multi-media machine.  Pujols will now be a pawn in Glenn Beck’s money-making game.

People who know very little about Albert Pujols but hate Glenn Beck will now hate Albert Pujols. And I think that is a shame.

The world is full of people trying to say incendiary things to further their own agendas. In fact, I am only writing this column because the article on Bleacher Report right now that has received the most comments at this very moment is on the same topic. I am even going to finish this article with a flourish so as to motivate more comments. (See? I am no ideologue.)

At the end of the day, if a professional athlete wants to stomp the campaign trail on behalf of a politician they agree with, then they have every right and they should, even if I don’t like their candidate.

(Flourish alert) But to allow oneself to become the victim of an egotistical blow-hard who sews the seeds of division on national television every night simply for the purpose of making himself a millionaire, with absolutely no regard for the very people he pretends to represent, nor the very democracy for which he claims so much concern is unacceptable.

I hate Glenn Beck, and Albert Pujols should too (end of flourish).

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