Jake Westbrook and Ryan Ludwick were traded today in a creative three-way trade. The moving parts in this deal looked like this:
Cardinals acquire:
Jake Westbrook (From Indians)
Nick Greenwood (From Padres)
Undisclosed amount of cash (From Indians)
Padres acquire:
Ryan Ludwick (From Cardinals)
Undisclosed amount of cash (From Indians)
Indians acquire:
Corey Kluber (From Padres)
As the trade deadline looms and pitchers have moved from team to team, the last guy standing is Roy Oswalt. Where will he end up?
Here’s a shocker: He ain’t goin’ nowhere. Why? Oswalt is hurt. Most likely his perpetually bad back.
Reds’ fans saw it in his last outing, July 24, where he lasted only 70 pitches. Pirates’ fans saw it in Oswalt’s outing before he lost to the Reds, July 18, when he stuck around for a whopping 65 pitches.
Keep those dates in mind.
In those last two games his line looks like this: 9 IP, 16 H, 8 ER.
How and when did he get hurt?
First off, Oswalt has a long history of back issues. In fact, his last reported Cortisone shot was on July 7—”reported.”
The next night, July 8, he took the hill and voodoo-dolled himself.
Oswalt tossed a one-hit, complete game shutout.
He threw 117 pitches, equalling his May 9 season high.
A conspiracy theorist might say Oswalt was feeling pretty good after the shot and was trying his damnedest to get out of Houston, took the mound, and threw a whale of a game.
Hurting his fragile back in the process.
Would you spend around $20 million over the next two years on a guy needed for two months, with the possibility of having to ink a deal requiring your team to take on an additional year—knowing that his back is acting up?
Okay, so what made the dates July 18 and July 24 so important? Think for a second.
Answer: His previous start was July 8, why the 10-day rest? The July 13, 2010 All-Star Game?
Nope. July 8 was a Thursday. The All-Star break began on a Monday. The Astros resumed play on Friday, July 16, vs. Pittsburgh.
Why didn’t Oswalt pitch that game?
Why did he wait until Sunday, July 18?
And why did he only last 65 pitches, going only four innings?
It’s not like he took the mound in the fifth and couldn’t get anybody out. Chris Sampson relieved Roy Oswalt before the fifth started.
Oswalt had only given up two earned runs.
So, again, why was he done after only 65 pitches?
His next outing vs. the Reds was horrible—10 base runners in five innings, six earned runs on 70 pitches.
Oswalt is scheduled to pitch Friday, July 30, against Milwaukee.
From now until game time on Friday, Houston is on the phone trying wheel a deal for Oswalt before everyone realizes that, for the remainder of the season, he is a toast.
The reported Cortisone shot and the next night’s one-hitter serve as a classic example of the old cliché, “be careful what you wish for.”
That or maybe a little Karma biting Oswalt for being such a prig to the team that paid him ungodly amounts of money throughout his entire career.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
St. Louis Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols was in New York for a series against the Mets recently and decided to drop by “The Late Show with David Letterman.” He came to talk baseball and managed to work in some batting practice as well.
He faced off against Letterman, who surprisingly has some pop in his bat and, not to mention, an athletic-looking swing.
Watch Letterman try to beat Pujols at his own game on TheSportingRave.com.
Actor and comedian Denis Leary was a guest on the show as well and was kind enough to play the role of pitcher for both of the contestants.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
The first base position in fantasy baseball produces a lot of depth from owners to choose from either via their drafts back in March, or a waiver wire pick-up during the season. With the second half of play underway, let’s take a look at how the first basemen will finish out the season.
In previous seasons, I’ve done just a “straight” ranking by position, as opposed to a “tiering” system, but have recently found that the tiering system will help you to better distinguish the difference between a Tier-One player and a Tier-two player, ultimately leading to better value.
Tier-One
1) Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals
2) Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
3) Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies
4) Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees
Nothing new with these top tier guys, as any of these options will provide solid numbers during the second half of play. Albert Pujols is Albert Pujols, and is still the king. Miguel Cabrera certainly is second to no one in fantasy baseball this year, as he’s posting a MVP/Triple Crown type of season.
Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira had up-and-down numbers during the first half of play, but both know how to produce huge numbers after the All-Star break. As the temperature rises, so do the HR and RBI totals for both of these sluggers.
Tier-Two
5) Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds
6) Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers
7) Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox
8) Adrian Gonzalez – San Diego Padres
Again, can’t go wrong with any of these guys. Joey Votto is carrying the Reds offensively right now and has done so all season long, and he could easily be thrown into the Tier-One group. Prince Fielder will probably be staying in Milwaukee the rest of the season, but his numbers should still continue to be around the same mark with the power numbers taking a slight hit.
The on-base percentage (OBP) machine that is Kevin Youkilis is putting together another solid season. Expect more of the same during the second half, as the runs scored, slugging (SLG), and OBP numbers will be near the top of the AL leader board.
I’m sure every Adrian Gonzalez owner is hoping that the Padres acquire a power-bat before the trading deadline passes. Gonzalez currently sits in second place in the NL with 17 intentional-walks, but with pennant races hitting up, I fully expect teams to start treating Adrian like Barry Bonds.
Tier-Three
9) Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins
10) Billy Butler – Kansas City Royals
11) Adam Dunn – Washington Nationals
12) Paul Konerko – Chicago White Sox
13) Carlos Pena – Tampa Bay Rays
Justin Morneau has yet to play a game during the second half due to an injury (surprise!) and is a suspect the rest of the season for poor numbers. Morneau floats around a .300/.360/.550 with an on-base plus + slugging percentage (OPS) over .900 during the first half of play, but when the second half hits, his numbers take a huge hit, posting drops in all categories, especially the home run department. Hopefully, you were able to trade Morneau for a high return before the second half of play started.
Billy Butler doesn’t have the HR power like most first baseman, but still flat out hits every month. With KC being what it is, Butler will likely be limited as far as his runs scored and the RBI department.
The Nationals want to move Adam Dunn before the trade deadline, but the price is reportedly high, so I see him staying put and signing an extension in D.C. Dunn has always been known for the high home run totals, walks, and high strike out totals, but he is surprisingly hitting at an average above the .275 mark right now, which is something he simply isn’t known for. The highest average Dunn has ever hit during an entire season is .267 (2009 season).
Another down factor for Dunn is his OBP number this season, as he’s been attacking the zone aggressively, seeing the lowest numbers of pitches per plate appearance during his ten-year career. Over the past two seasons, Dunn hasn’t hit over 15 home runs post All-Star break since the 2007 season.
Tier-Four
14) Adam LaRoche – Arizona Diamondbacks
15) Aubrey Huff – San Francisco Giants
16) James Loney – Los Angels Dodgers
17) Derrek Lee – Chicago Cubs
18) Lance Berkman – Houston Astros
I’ve had a serious man-crush on Adam LaRoche all season long. Everyone knows how he tears the second half of play up, but I think we will see his best second half surge ever during the 2010 season.
Aubrey Huff of the Giants is having his best season since 2008 and has already surpassed his home run totals from last season. Huff’s best month has yet to come, so watch out when the calendar hits August 1st.
James Loney reminds me of Billy Butler because of their similar numbers, and the fact that he will not hit for a ton of power, but will still have the high AVG and OPS number.
Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman have a lot in common this season, from poor production numbers to the inability to hit left-handed pitching. On the bright side, owners can expect some bounce back from both players. I especially like Lee moving forward, so see if you can grab him from someone for a cheap price. Closing out the season, Lee should hit around the .290 clip and will end with between 20-25 HR.
Tier-Five
19) Ike Davis – New York Mets
20) Gaby Sanchez – Florida Marlins
21) Russell Branyan – Seattle Mariners
22) Justin Smoak – Seattle Mariners
23) Todd Helton – Colorado Rockies
24) Troy Glaus – Atlanta Braves
25) Daric Barton – Oakland Athletics
Most of the Tier-Five guys are part of the youth movement and will be moving up the ranks next season, as they are able to hit for solid power numbers and are reliable late round options for that corner infield position on your team.
Like most of the Mets roster, Ike Davis is red-hot when playing in Citi Field (.298/.387/.496), but struggles on the road (.212/.272/.400). The good news is that he’s hitting .278 with a .329 OBP against left-handed pitching this season.
Former University of Miami slugger Gaby Sanchez is having a terrific rookie season across all categories. He’s hit left-handed pitching extremely well to this point and hits both while at home and on the road.
Justin Smoak has the power, but has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, which should be expected for a player of his age.
Written by Reggie Yinger, exclusively for the TheFantasyFix.com
Reggie Yinger is a programmer in the IT field and also writes for BaseballPress.com. He previously worked for a Minor League Baseball team and hopes to return to baseball full-time in some fashion. You can follow him on Twitter @sacksjacked.
We’d love to hear your thoughts. Hit us up on Twitter @TheFantasyFix
Here are some more articles that will not self destruct in ten seconds…
More Good Reads from the Fix Fellas!
Fantasy Baseball’s First Half Awards: MCab, Pujols & More!
MLB Records Are Meant To Be Broken! A Fantasy Fix Roundtable Adventure
What a Bunch of Dicks: Baseball’s Funniest Names
Will Matt Kemp & Ryan Braun Go 30/30 in 2010?
MiLB articles
The Fantasy Fix’s AAA Farm Report: June 30, 2010
The Fantasy Fix’s AA Farm Report: Kyle Drabek’s No-Hitter & More!
The Fantasy Fix’s A-Ball Report: Big Numbers but who’s the real deal?
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, the St. Louis Cardinals are in need of some help if they want to stave off the upstart Cincinnati Reds. The following players could be great fits and propel them to the playoffs.
Roy Oswalt
Let’s start with the obvious. Every Cardinal fan, and many baseball fans as well, have heard the rumors.
Oswalt and the Cardinals have a mutual interest in each other. The current Astros pitcher wants a chance to contend for a World Series ring, something the 39-57 Astros won’t do this year. He also has stated publicly that he would be willing to do whatever it takes to join the Redbirds, namely restructuring his contract.
The Cardinals need a pitcher. After Chris Carpenter, Cy Young contender Adam Wainwright, and Rookie of the Year candidate Jaime Garcia, the Cards are struggling to find a consistent starter with both Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny on the DL.
In order to make this happen, the Cardinals have to find a solution to an age old baseball thought.
How do they convince the Astros to trade within the division? They are reportedly looking for three major league-ready players in return. The Cards could probably get Oswalt if they package OF Jon Jay or SS Brendan Ryan with another prospect, possibly SP Shelby Miller or C Robert Stock, a deal could happen.
Dan Haren
I, for one, would love to see the Cardinals acquire their former No. 1 pitching prospect.
With that said, Haren is probably a long shot unless the Diamondbacks pick up a significant portion of his contract. For the 2011 season, the Cardinals have already committed $39.2 million to Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, and Penny.
Haren is scheduled to make $12.75 million. If the Cards acquire Haren without the D’Backs covering some of the cost, they would be spending over half of their operating budget on the starting rotation.
Jake Westbrook
Westbrook is by far the least talented, but he may end up being the best fit for the Cards.
Westbrook would not require a ton of talent to get. The Indians were reportedly willing to move him to the Mets recently for a mid-level prospect, provided the Mets picked up the the remaining salary left on Westbrook’s contract, which is just over $6.5 million.
This would seemingly be the perfect fit for the Cardinals. GM John Mozeliak has said that he does not want to add a rental player if he has to sell the farm. Brendan Ryan would probably get this done.
Stephen Drew
The Cardinals have been in search of an everyday shortstop ever since David Eckstein left via free agency.
Stephen Drew could be that answer. Drew is under contract for two more years and has a solid bat at a position that isn’t filled with pop. He is also an above average defender.
After looking over their roster, I would assume the D’Backs would be looking for a young pitcher in return. Unless the Cardinals find a way to trade for both Haren and Drew, I doubt that they would be willing to part with Shelby Miller for Drew alone.
The Diamondbacks could be interested in Jon Jay as well since Geraldo Parra has failed to impress.
If the Cards could pull off a Shelby Miller, Jon Jay, and Ryan Ludwick for Haren and Drew deal with the Diamondbacks agreeing take on some of Haren’s salary, I would be in heaven.
Dan Uggla
Uggla isn’t on the trading block officially but the Marlins have been listening to offers for him for over a year. He has been a consistent power hitter for the Marlins and is under contract through next season.
As usual, the Marlins would presumably be looking for young talent in return. Brendan Ryan or David Freese might entice the Marlins to move Uggla but that may be wishful thinking on my part.
Kelly Johnson
Here we come to the third Arizona Diamondback on this list. Johnson has had one heck of a season for Arizona and he, like Uggla, is not officially on the block but it has been reported that the D’backs have been listening to offers in order to maximize his value.
There have been whispers that the Cardinals and the D’Backs had discussed a Kelly Johnson for Ryan Ludwick swap. I would be fine with this.
Both Ludwick and Johnson are in arbitration years and both have been streaky hitters. Johnson had two pretty good seasons with the Atlanta Braves, followed by a sub-par campaign last season. After a 37 homer, 113 RBI season two years ago, Ludwick’s numbers dipped last season and his struggles have continued into this season.
I think Johnson could be an important piece of the puzzle should the Cardinals be able to nab him.
Jose Bautista
Ahh the ultimate rental player.
The Cards would love to add some power in the infield and Bautista has been on fire this season, leading Major League Baseball with 26 taters. He is also a relatively versatile defender, possessing the ability to play both third base and right field.
The problem with this fit is that Bautista’s value is grossly inflated right now. Couple his power numbers with the fact that he only has approximately $1 million dollars remaining this season allows the Blue Jays to have a high asking price, maybe too high for the Cardinals.
Out of all of the possible scenarios listed, this is my least favorite.
Out of all of the possibilities listed, I would love it if the Cardinals could get a combination of Oswalt or Haren and Drew. So if this deal or deals were to happen, let’s take a look at what the lineup and rotation would look like.
In the Oswalt deal, the Cardinals most likely will have to give up Shelby Miller and Brendan Ryan to make it happen.
If they can fulfill my aforementioned dream scenario and make the Haren and Drew for Miller, Jay and Ludwick trade the lineup could look something like this:
1 – 3B David Freese (.361 on base percentage)
2 – SS Stephen Drew
3 – 1B Albert Pujols
4 – LF Matt Holliday
5- CF Colby Rasmus
6 – C Yadier Molina
7 – 2B Brendan Ryan
8 – SP
9 – RF Randy Winn/Skip Schumaker
Starting Rotation:
1 – Chris Carpenter
2 – Adam Wainwright
3 – Roy Oswalt/Dan Haren
4 – Jaime Garcia
5 – Kyle Lohse
If either Oswalt or Haren and Drew join the Redbirds, the Cardinals could make a run at the best record in the National League.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Billy Bob Thornton. Bob Knight. Nelly. Bill Clinton.
Recently another big name has been added to the above list. Apparently, Roy Oswalt is a Cardinals fan.
The Astros’ ace has stated on numerous occasions that he’d favor a trade to the St. Louis Cardinals, and because Oswalt has a full no-trade clause, he holds all the cards.
So now it’s up to St. Louis to make a move. With a farm system that has been depleted by several trades over the past few years, the Cardinals cannot afford to make a mistake here.
Cardinals fans won’t soon forget how Oswalt dominated them in Game Six of the 2005 NLCS, eliminating St. Louis from the playoffs. Come October, no team would want to face a Cardinals rotation anchored by three aces in Oswalt, Chris Carpenter, and Adam Wainwright, all perennial Cy Young candidates. The road the the National League pennant would run through St. Louis. So who should and shouldn’t the Cardinals move to get the Astros’ ace?
On Their Way Out: Players the Cardinals Shouldn’t Hesitate To Offer
Brendan Ryan: It’s no secret that Brendan Ryan has struggled. Trading him could be a great move for the Cardinals. He’s been batting below the Mendoza line for most of the season, and his usually stellar defense has been less than great. So, if the Astros see potential in him, let them figure it out. Ryan is already 28, so moving him would be an added bonus to acquiring Oswalt.
Fernando Salas: In the first few assignments of his career, Salas has been very good. The Cardinals could relay this into a possible trade, although he wouldn’t be the centerpiece of a trade. Tony LaRussa has brought slowly worked him into higher and higher pressure, but he has continued to be effective, giving up just one earned run on a home run over 8.2 innings pitched. The Cardinals already have two young fireballers in their bullpen, so Salas is expandable.
Robert Stock, Brian Anderson, or Matt Pagnozzi: I list these three here together because they all fall into basically the same category. Three catchers, who find their path to the majors blocked by Cardinals mainstay Yadier Molina. They’re all considered top prospects in the Cardinals organization, but there’s not spot for them now, so they’re better used as trade chips.
Daryl Jones: A year ago, I didn’t want to see Daryl Jones included in a trade for a big name player. This year, things have changed. In 2008, when Jones batted .316, stole 24 bases, and hit 13 home runs, he looked like a five-tool player who could see starting time in the Cardinals outfield in the coming years. Since then, he has struggled against AAA pitching, and his batting average has dropped the past two seasons. He did bat .209 at Rookie ball in 2005, so he could just be adjusting. The Astros would jump at the chance to get him, and he wouldn’t be to big of a piece for the Cardinals to give up.
Blake Hawksworth: Hawksworth has progressed well this season, and no longer has prospect status. He’s filled in well for the Cardinals as a fifth starter this year, but has an ERA of nearly 5.00. If Oswalt joins the fold, Hawksworth would have to be moved to an already crowded bullpen. It would be better for the Cardinals to simply include him in a trade. He was the Cardinals top prospect in 2004, so the Astros may still see improvement left in him.
Adron Chambers: Adron Chambers is not the future of Cardinals Nation. However, he could be another team’s future. His speed makes him valuable, although his defense is suspect. He’s played most of his games in center field, where he has a .964 fielding percentage. He’s only 23, so he has time to improve, but would likely be the third player in a three-player deal.
Deryk Hooker: If the Astros are looking for pitching help, as rumored, Hooker could be included in a deal. He currently leads all Cardinals prospects with 94 strikeouts, and put up a 2.83 ERA with a .220 average against for Quad Cities. This has been a breakout year for Hooker, who just turned 21 this June.
Daniel Descalso: Descalso is an interesting case. He appears to be a slightly better hitting Brendan Ryan, expect that Descalso plays second base. His numbers in the minors have been good. With Triple-A Memphis, he’s posted a solid .357 on-base percentage, and has driven in 52 runs, putting him on pace for a career high. If the Cardinals don’t move him, the 23-year old is their future at second base.
Packing Their Bags: One of These Players Could Be Moved, But Not More
Allen Craig: As the best hitting prospect the Cardinals have, Craig is a prime candidate to be moved in a deal for Oswalt. However, Craig’s primary position is first base, and he’s not going to play there any time soon. It’s possible that he gets time in the outfield, but right now he’s got a big league bat, but not enough time to show it off. He could have that opportunity with Houston, who is rumored to be moving first baseman Lance Berkman. Craig could come back to bite the Cardinals, but, if it means acquiring Oswalt, it’s worth it.
Lance Lynn: He could be the centerpiece in a move for Oswalt. The Astros are said to be looking for pitching, and there may be no better option than Lynn, who was named St. Louis’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2009. He currently has 90 strikeouts for Triple-A Memphis to lead the team.
Jon Jay: In two stints with the Cardinals, Jay has exceeded all expectations, with a slash line of .378/.441/.607, and he has gained more and more playing time as the season progressed. However, he’ll have to come back to earth eventually, and the Cardinals could be wise to sell high here. I would miss the enthusiasm Jay brings to the team, and would hate to see him come up big for the Astros against St. Louis, but I think the Cardinals would be willing to move him, if it means the pennant.
Eduardo Sanchez: Eduardo Sanchez is listed as the Cardinals sixth best prospect by Baseball America, and for good reason. Out of the minor league bullpen, Sanchez posted a .920 WHIP in 2009, among the best in the organization. He has faltered this year in split time between Springfield and Memphis, but if the Astros want him, the Cardinals could move him with little thought.
Mitchell Boggs: As a major league ready arm, Boggs may fit the bill for Houston. He can develop into either a fourth or fifth starter, or even a closer. With a fastball in the high-90’s, and a devastating slider, Boggs has put hitters away out of the St. Louis pen, posting a 1.168 WHIP while striking out 6.6 batters per nine innings. At the age of 26, he could develop into a strong closer in the Houston bullpen.
Deal Breakers: Players Who Aren’t Going Anywhere
David Freese, Colby Rasmus, and Jaime Garcia: These three are the future of Cardinals Nation. Rasmus has been called, along with Andrew McCutchen, the future of center field in the National League. Garcia, who made the club out of spring training, has looked like a Rookie of the Year favorite, posting a 9-4 record with a 2.21 ERA. He looks like a future front of the line starter for St. Louis. Freese was of to a hot start before injury derailed him. It’s very likely that he’ll be moved in the foreseeable future, because the Cardinals don’t have a suitable replacement for him at third.
Shelby Miller: He’s the reason a trade hasn’t gotten done yet. It appears the Astros want Miller, last year’s first round draft pick, but the Cardinals are unwilling to part with him, and for good reason. Miller is only 19, but has the top rated fastball in the organization. Baseball America lists him as the Cardinals’ top prospect, and he looks like he will replace Chris Carpenter within the next four years. Even if it prevent the deal from getting done, you do not trade Miller.
So can the Cardinals get Oswalt? If the Astros are willing to look past Shelby Miller, I think a deal can get done by the July 31 deadline. There may yet be another wrench thrown into the equation. If the Cardinals manage to surprise everyone by signing twelfth-round pick Austin Wilson, a top 15-pick talent that the Cardinals have been recruiting vigorously, trading Jay, Craig, or Jones would become a no-brainer.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
As a fantasy baseball fan, I pay close attention to the rapidly approaching trade deadline.
For instance, I was thrilled to see Cliff Lee move to Texas, home of the long-ball, since I didn’t draft him on any teams this year. Indeed, most trades have some fantasy impact, but there is a pending trade that has the potential to make a major impact—both in fantasy and reality.
In an attempt to shore up their rotation and make a strong push to win the World Series this year, the St. Louis Cardinals have been actively pursuing Roy Oswalt.
Oswalt is having a fantastic year with six wins, 117 K’s in 124 IP, a 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a .220 BAA on a terrible Houston team.
Oswalt is getting along in years, and he realizes that his chances of winning a World Series with this Houston team are practically non-existent. However, winning a World Series with the St. Louis Cardinals is a strong possibility.
From a fantasy perspective, Oswalt has been very good this year, but the losses have taken what should be a career year and transformed it into merely a good overall 2010 campaign. A trade to the St. Louis Cardinals can make a monumental difference in his 2nd half stats, and here’s how.
St. Louis boasts one of the strongest offenses in the league, and this translates into run support for their starting pitchers.
Here’s the run support (runs per game) for the St. Louis Cardinals top 3 pitchers:
Adam Wainwright—6.51
Jaime Garcia—6.95
Chris Carpenter—6.73
Oswalt’s run support is 3.27 runs per start in Houston. The difference between the average run support of St. Louis’ top three starters (6.73) and Oswalt in Houston is 3.46. Theoretically, Oswalt would receive an extra 3.46 runs per start in St. Louis.
In all of the losses or no-decisions that Oswalt has had this year, he has given up an average of 2.85 runs per start. If we subtract the run differential and the average runs that he gave up per contest, Oswalt would have picked up several more wins in the first half.
If Oswalt joins the Cardinals for the rest of the second half he should sport the same strong numbers. But with the increase in run support and the improved supporting cast, expect his win totals to climb by four wins.
For those of us that drafted Oswalt in several leagues, we can only hope that this trade happens in the near future.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Rivalries have always played a huge role in sports, and we all know the fun in rooting against a team we hate.
In the past, rivals have been compared in a number of ways, from who has the best current team to who has won the most championships to who has the best fans.
We at SeatGeek thought it would be interesting to compare rivals based on transactions on the secondary ticket market, which we have found to be a great judge of fan sentiment.
Three weeks ago, we looked at the Mets-Phillies rivalry, and earlier this week we looked at the Giants-Dodgers rivalry. Today, we will be looking at the rivalry between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs.
The first graph shows the average transaction price per month for February through July. The ticket price data is based on the date transacted, not which game the tickets are for, meaning that if a ticket is bought in February for a game in July, the data is part of February’s average.
We also thought it would be interesting to track the ticket price changes as a percentage change over time—with February as our base month.
This allows us to compare consumer sentiment fluctuations across different teams on the same scale.
For a simpler example, let’s look at two teams: Team A and Team B. In February, Team A’s tickets are $5 and Team B’s tickets are $30. In June, Team A’s tickets are $10 and Team B’s tickets are $20. That means Team A experienced a 100 percent increase in ticket prices and Team B experienced a 33.3 percent decrease in ticket prices. Therefore:
We will keep you updated. We plan on updating these plots monthly, in addition to looking at other rivalries. Stay tuned.
Be sure to follow us on Twitter @SeatGeekMLB and email max@seatgeek.com with any questions or comments.
This article is also featured on SeatGeek Sports Blog .
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
It was back in December of 2004 that the St. Louis Cardinals first traded Danny Haren.
Now, here in the summer of 2010, the Cardinals may re—acquire the former highly touted prospect.
Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse is reporting that the Cardinals are focused on Haren and the Cleveland Indian’s Jake Westbrook.
Haren is signed through 2012 with a club option for 2013. Westbrook is a free agent at the end of the season.
Those two facts alone point out whose price is the cheapest in terms of players needed.
Those two facts also point out who is most desired.
Dan Haren.
Yes, bringing back Haren would remove a small percentage of the bad memories of the great trade gone wrong. Haren would reunite with his drafting team under the shadow of the Gateway Arch.
A price worth paying.
But, can the Cardinals make an offer to the Arizona Diamondbacks that they cannot refuse?
Different story.
Firstly, I will avoid naming a package of players because as it has been pointed out to me by true talent evaluators (i.e. Keith Law), my picking skills are lacking. I will name a few names. Well, never mind. You’ll see.
Let’s start this bad boy!
Jake Westbrook
Personally, I like Westbrook. He is a workhorse, a sinker specialist, and a good clubhouse presence. He is, however, coming off elbow surgery. He missed all of 2009 and a lot of 2008.
While the price to acquire Westbrook is much lower than Haren’s, the Cardinals are not inclined to add a rent—a—player. They did that a few times last year, you might have heard, and gave up a lot of talent for a quick sweep in October.
This season, the Cardinals want to avoid those types of players. So, unless Cleveland brings down their asking price on Westbrook, I do not think you’ll be seeing him in the ‘Lou this summer.
Dan Haren
Haren is an ace—like pitcher. Adding Haren’s presence to the Cardinals rotation would make them the odds on favorite to finish off what was started in Cincinnati back on Opening Day.
Haren would make a four—headed behemoth monster, headed by Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, with rookie sensation Jamie Garcia following up the trio.
Now that you know why the Cardinals want Haren back, here is what makes this truly tricky:
Money and players, a.k.a. the price.
Haren is owed slightly less than $4 million for the rest of this season, along with $12.75 million in each of the next two seasons.
Carpenter is due $15 million next season with a club option at the same amount the following year.
Wainwright’s contract balloons to $6.5 million in 2011. Garcia is a renewed contract, but Kyle Lohse’s contract also spikes to $11.875 million.
Add in Haren’s $12.75 million, and the rotation would be due $46.125 million in 2011, or close to half of the payroll.
That is a lot of money for five guys.
Of course, there is always ways around the costs.
Carpenter can work out a new contract that would pay him his $15 million club option over three seasons (2012, ’13, ’14) to help offset some of the costs.
I’m also leaving out that Albert Pujols next contract starts in 2012. Go read that debate (Part II is up).
Let’s leave aside the whole debate about money. Money can be important, but it could also be unimportant. The Cardinals may find a way to up the payroll with the increase merchandise and ticket sales (a big acquisition like Haren can do that).
The really important piece of the trade equation is the players being traded. Can the two teams match up? If they can’t match up, then there is no need to worry about money.
In this case, I think the teams can.
First off, any trade discussion between the two teams will start with money, not players. And by money, I mean how much money the Diamondbacks would send to the Cardinals to offset Haren’s contract.
The less money spent, the less quality of players.
In other words, Miller and Sanchez are completely untouchable if the Diamondbacks don’t pick up any amount of Haren’s remaining salary.
Either way, there is one name that could intrigue the Diamondbacks.
Allen Craig.
Craig has raked at every level in the minors and did struggle early on this season after making the roster out of spring. Chalk that slow start up to not playing often so he couldn’t get into a groove.
Now that he has time to play, Craig is starting to rake. With Ludwick scheduled to come back mere days before July 31, Craig is a name to watch in the Haren talks.
Other names could be Jon Jay, Lance Lynn, Richard Castillo, and Mark Hamilton.
Like I said, how much money the Diamondbacks would pick up in the trade would increase or decrease the talent level of the prospects included in the trade.
Let’s remember, though, that the Diamondbacks are looking to shred salary; so any trade of Haren would likely be for Haren AND his entire contract.
That could make acquiring Haren for the Cardinals easier with the ability absorb his contract.
We’ll see.
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So you know the theory to the idea.
Now, it is time for an actual deal.
First off, we have to create a list of teams that can afford Albert Pujols financially.
Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers.
Teams that have the players to make a deal out of these teams (I have eliminated any teams that would “rent” Pujols based on the fact that even for Pujols, no team would devour their farm system for Pujols only to lose him right away):
Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, Mariners, Mets, Phillies, Giants.
That doesn’t leave a lot of teams, but let’s take a look.
Front Runners
The Red Sox have a very deep farm system with a talented Major League roster. The Red Sox could easily package Casey Kelly, Jonathon Papelbon/Daniel Bard, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, Clay Buchholz, Jose Iglesias, Junichi Tazawa, and Ryan Westmoreland together to make a deal.
The Red Sox have the cash to make Pujols the contract he desires, and while this trade would ruin their depth, it would improve their team without really hurting their immediate Major League roster.
The Angels are in the same boat. Mike Trout, Trevor Reckling, Fabio Martinez, Jordan Walden, Ryan Chaffee, Tyler Skaggs, and Garrett Richards would get a deal done.
The Angels too have the money to sign Pujols long-term and not hurt their current Major League roster by making this deal. Their depth would also take a huge hit.
The Mets are in a different boat. What kind of boat? The Red Sox and Angels are riding on the Titanic, and the Mets are in a dinghy. And yes, the Titanic reference is good. Trading this much depth would make an iceberg ahead.
The Mets would have to center any deal for Pujols around Ike Davis, Jenrry Mejia, Wilmer Flores, Jon Niese, Mike Pelfrey, Fernando Martinez, Josh Thole, and Juan Urbina.
The Mets would greatly hurt their Major League pitching staff, but add the bat they need in the middle of their order. The Mets too would have the money to lock Pujols up.
Middle Ground
The White Sox are the team that is in the direct middle. They could easily come up with the money to sign Pujols long-term and have the prospects to make the deal work, but do they have the space?
The team plays musical chairs at DH and 1B anymore. Would they want to add another player to that mix, even one as good as Pujols?
The prospects involved would be: Tyler Flowers, Gordon Beckham, Jared Mitchell, Dan Hudson, Jordan Danks, Dayan Viciedo, and Nathan Jones.
Background
The Phillies are an interesting team in this discussion. Their depth has taken a hit, so they would have to deal from current players (J.A. Happ, Ryan Madson) and prospects (Dominic Brown) to get any deal done.
The reason, though, that the Phillies sit on the back of the bus is their lack of talent depth, but their lack of space.
Ryan Howard can’t play any other position on the diamond (just DH). Chase Utley can’t play the corner outfield with his weak arm and bad hips.
Placido Polanco would be a big gamble in RF, same goes for Pujols (who would also be a gamble at 3B with his elbow issues).
The Mariners are another interesting team. Their depth is there, but the talent depth really isn’t.
They have the cash to pull off a trade, but not a lot of talent (outside of Dustin Ackley) to offer.
The Giants are the most interesting team in this entire equation. Buster Posey, Jonathon Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, and Zach Wheeler headlining a package would make anyone listen.
They also have the money and a clear need (Sandoval at 3B with Pujols at 1B would be a sick defensive alignment and 3-4 in the order) for Pujols.
Would Sabean act, though, is the major question. His lack of desire to make moves and reluctance to pay wanted prices pushes the Giants to the back, but would be dark horses if Pujols was put up on the trade block.
Rent-A-Team
There is only one team would could feasibly fit Pujols into their 2011 budget, but not beyond. That team is the Tampa Bay Rays .
Think about this. The Rays make the trade for Pujols this winter. Even with some of their core players likely leaving, they would still be the team to beat.
And with their good track record of drafting and developing players, the two draft picks brought back from Pujols signing elsewhere (no one will rate higher than him on the Elias rankings) could be worth the lose of top prospects.
Many would say that any trade from Tampa Bay should be headlined by Evan Longoria. I’m not that naive. No way the Rays would deal Longoria, especially for a rent-a-player (even if it is Pujols).
No, their deal would be: Desmond Jennings, Jeremy Hellickson, Tim Beckham, Matt Sweeney, Matt Moore, Alex Torres.
Now do you see why this would be a long-shot? Pujols would effectively replace Pena for the season, but Jennings is supposed to replace Crawford.
Hellickson would replace a starter who would shift to the bullpen (my money on Davis or Garza) to close games and anchor the bullpen*.
The Rays can’t do make this trade because it would greatly affect their moving on, but they could still surprise all involved by making the deal.
* = Way too many starters for five spots, and they need a closer under club control. Why not move a starter back there, a la Papelbon, and call-up Hellickson? Makes more sense than overspending on a closer or bringing Soriano back.
Got the Cash
The Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, and Tigers have the money to sign Pujols.
None would land him in a trade.
The simple reason is that none of the clubs have the farm system to pull off a trade, or don’t have the young, cost controlled players needed to make a deal.
The Cubs would also fit in this category because John Mozeliak knows that if he traded Pujols, he would be lynched.
If he traded him to the Cubs, his body would be burned after the lynching.
Just remember that this is all theoretical. There are no discussions going on about trading Pujols.
This is just something that should be thought about with Pujols’ contract coming to an end and negotiations on the horizon.
And just to make a few things clear:
*I am a die-hard Cardinals fan. Remember: this is THEORETICAL!
*If Pujols makes it known that he wants to test the free agent market before re-signing with the Cardinals, I would not blame Mozeliak one bit for trading Pujols.
Anything can happen in today’s world.
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