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South Korean reliever Seung-hwan Oh signed with the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday, general manager John Mozeliak confirmed at a press conference.  

“Ultimately we brought Oh in to what we feel is already a very dynamic bullpen and he will most definitely add to that,” Mozeliak told reporters.

Oh, nicknamed the “Final Boss,” had a 2.73 ERA, 41 saves and struck out 66 batters in 69.1 innings last season for the Hanshin Tigers. In a career spent in both the Korea Baseball Organization and Japan’s Central League, he’s posted a 1.81 ERA and has struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings.

He was so dominant over the last two seasons in Japan that Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports described him as “the Mariano Rivera of Korea.” According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Oh “has a fastball that he throws from 93 mph to 95 mph, and he offsets that with a hard slider and a slower breaking ball.”

He’s made his mark as a closer, though he’ll serve as the setup man in St. Louis, with Trevor Rosenthal—who had 48 saves in 2015—entrenched in the ninth-inning role. The move could prove to be a particularly sly one for St. Louis, which missed out on the big free agents this winter but may have given itself the best late-innings duo in the National League with this signing.

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After a season in which their starting rotation led Major League Baseball with a 2.99 ERA, you’d think a starting pitcher would be the last thing the St. Louis Cardinals would need this winter.

But need one they did. And Tuesday, they found just the man for the job in Mike Leake.

News of Leake’s agreement with the Cardinals was first reported by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, who later reported the deal could cost the Cardinals nearly $100 million in the long run:

And there’s more! According to Rosenthal, Leake’s deal also includes a full no-trade clause. The Cardinals are giving the 28-year-old right-hander everything he could have asked for and then some.

Sounds like a deal that contradicts the claim that Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak made to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch when he said the club was out on “dynamic signings” this winter. And for a guy like Leake, it’s arguably a bit much. He’s been a roughly league-average pitcher, so odds are he’s not going to elevate the Cardinals rotation to new heights.

But then, that’s not really the point. Rather than elevating their rotation to new heights, the Cardinals’ priority was to ensure it didn’t sink to unknown depths.

Said rotation was indeed quite good in 2015, but it’s been hit hard in recent months. This winter, it’s lost John Lackey to free agency and Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery. Those losses make the Cardinals rotation reliant on Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia. That’s a good foursome on paper, but Wainwright is old and the other three come with durability question marks.

With all this going on, the Cardinals rotation needed something solid. In Leake, they’ve found just that.

You know that point about Leake being a roughly league-average pitcher? That stems from one statistic in particular. The 3.88 ERA he’s compiled since entering the league in 2010 equates to a 101 ERA-plus, which is exactly one tick above the mark for average (100). 

But this isn’t necessarily an insult. Some guys give the term “league average” a good name. Leake is one of those guys.

Leake is nothing if not consistent, as he’s posted ERAs in the mid- to high-3.00s in four of five seasons and has averaged roughly 195 innings pitched over the last four seasons. Along the way, his strengths have stood out just as much as his faults.

Leake has one fault in particular, and it’s that he’s not overpowering. His average fastball is only about 90-91 mph, and that’s contributed to consistently below-average strikeout rates and average or worse home run rates.

But deception and command can make up for a lot, and Leake has both of those things in spades.

Brooks Baseball shows he has a varied pitch mix that doesn’t include anything straight—he threw exactly four four-seam fastballs in 2015—but that hasn’t stopped him from posting consistently below-average walk rates. Combined, these two skills form arguably his best talent: getting ground balls. With a career GB percent of 50.2, Leake gets plenty of those.

These talents make Leake something of a natural fit for the Cardinals rotation. It’s coming off a year in which it finished in the bottom half of MLB in walks and third in ground balls. Clearly, neither Yadier Molina nor the Cardinals infield will need to adjust for Leake.

For that matter, Leake himself shouldn’t need to do any adjusting.

Thanks to his five-plus seasons with the Cincinnati Reds, he’s no stranger to either the NL West or Busch Stadium. And after failing to make the most of his opportunity to pitch at a big-time pitcher’s park with the San Francisco Giants, he now has another chance to do so. Busch Stadium isn’t AT&T Park, but it’s definitely more friendly to pitchers than Great American Ball Park.

Even if Leake doesn’t get better with regular action at a pitcher’s park, the Cardinals will be happy if he at least stays on the mound. And that should happen.

Leake has been good for 30 starts and more than six innings per start over the last four seasons, and it’s fair to expect more of the same. With just his age-28 season due up in 2016, Leake is a few years short of the usual expiration date for starting pitchers. And though he did miss a good chunk of action with an injury in 2015, it was a hamstring injury. Generally, his arm and shoulder have behaved. 

In a nutshell, Leake is a safe investment for the Cardinals. Matthew Leach of MLB.com summed it up well:

If there’s one thing Leake’s signing doesn’t do, it’s change the power structure in the NL Central.

The Chicago Cubs still look like the class of the division after adding Lackey, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist to a roster that won 97 games in 2015. The Cardinals may have been able to change that if they’d made good on their pursuit of David Price, but, well, they didn’t.

The Cardinals were, however, still very much in the picture even before they signed Leake. They’re even more in the picture after signing Leake. He’s not Price, but he’s just the kind of safety blanket that the Cardinals starting rotation needed. 

For a guy like that, at least $80 million and perhaps as much as $94 million doesn’t sound like such a bad price to pay after all.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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For the second time in less than a year, Mike Leake has found a new home, agreeing to terms with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports first reported the deal, while Chris Cotillo of SB Nation reported the agreement is for five years and $75 million with an option for $18 million in 2021. However, Rosenthal reported the agreement is worth $80 million with a mutual option that could increase the value to $93-94 million, adding that there is a full no-trade clause.

“One of the game’s most consistent performers,” Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak said of Leake at his introductory press conference.

“His proven experience and all-around ability should be a real plus for us,” Mozeliak added.

“I always enjoyed facing him and now I’m going to enjoy learning from him,” Leake said of fellow starting pitcher Adam Wainwright.

The San Francisco Giants acquired the right-hander last summer from the Cincinnati Reds, getting no substantial value in return, as Leake had a 4.07 ERA in just 55.1 innings over nine starts.

Leake isn’t a game-changing starter who will be in the Cy Young mix, but he’s established himself as a strong innings-eater. The former first-round pick has made at least 30 starts covering at least 179 innings in each of the past four seasons. St. Louis especially needed to bolster its rotation after missing out on David Price, who went to the Boston Red Sox.

There are limitations to Leake’s game, as Chris Cwik of Yahoo Sports pointed out after the Reds traded Leake to the Giants:

One of Leake’s other issues is that, since he doesn’t have exceptional swing and miss stuff, when he gets hit, he gets hit hard.

That can lead to some high home run totals. Some of those issues were due to Leake pitching in one of the friendlier hitter’s parks while he was in Cincinnati. According to Statcorner.com, Great American Ball Park has one of the highest home run park factors in the game.

Pitching to contact isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Leake keeps the ball on the ground, generating a 51.8 percent ground-ball rate in 2015, so pairing him with a strong infield defense will make him look even better.

Even though Leake wasn’t one of the marquee starting pitchers available this offseason, he’s one of the most valuable because he takes the ball every fifth day, throws five or six solid innings and gives the team a chance to win.

In this era of advanced metrics and analysis, Leake doesn’t check all of the boxes, but he hits enough to be a terrific asset moving forward. The Cardinals will be thrilled to have the right-hander in the rotation as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter for the next few years.

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The reignited rivalry between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs didn’t need any more heat. But Jason Heyward and Mike Matheny went ahead and added some spice anyway.

It began at Heyward’s introductory press conference on Dec. 15, when Chicago’s new star outfielder fired a few candid, pointed barbs at his old club, the Cardinals. Emphasis on the “old.”

“As everyone may have seen from the numbers that came out, I didn’t take the highest offer,” Heyward said, per CSNChicago.com’s Tony Andracki. “But for me, a winning attitude and culture and the fact that this was such a young group that I could grow myself with and be 26 years old.”

Andracki noted that Heyward accepted $184 million over eight years from the Cubs and reportedly spurned an offer “close to $200 million” from St. Louis.

“I felt like if I were to look up in three years and see it’s a completely different team, that would be kind of be different for me,” Heyward said of his decision to ditch the Cards, per Andracki.

And he got even more specific, listing catcher Yadier Molina, outfielder Matt Holliday and right-hander Adam Wainwright as Cardinals who are on the downslope.

We’ll parse the validity of Heyward’s assessment in a moment. First, the rebuttal, courtesy of the St. Louis skipper.

“I don’t think we have anything to apologize for in having a group like a Holliday, a Molina, a Wainwright,” Matheny said, according to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “Those are the kinds of guys everybody wants on a club.”

“I don’t blame him,” Matheny added. “But I don’t like it.”

As trash-talking exchanges go, that’s pretty civil. Heyward went out of his way to express admiration for the Cardinals organization at his presser, and Matheny likewise said he’s “got a lot of respect for Jason as a person.”

But make no mistake: This will be bulletin-board fodder for the Cardinals as they defend their division title against the upstart, hard-charging Cubbies (not to mention the Pittsburgh Pirates).

This rivalry didn’t need momentum. The Cards claimed the NL Central with the best record in baseball last season before the Cubs bounced them in the National League Division Series.

If the first-ever postseason clash between these historic foes wasn’t enough to get the regional juices flowing, nothing will be.

Now, though, Heyward has spelled out the terms. The Cardinals are the aging champs with creaky knees and a faltering right hook. The Cubs, meanwhile, are the spry challengers gunning for the knockout.

Is that a fair summation?

Undeniably, the players Heyward cited—Molina, Holliday and Wainwright—will be central to the Cardinals’ success next season. Molina is 33 and had a second surgery on his right thumb after the first one, in October, “didn’t take,” per CBSSports.com’s David Brown. 

Holliday turns 36 in January and played only 73 games last year. And the 34-year-old Wainwright missed nearly all of 2015 with a busted Achilles tendon.

The Cubs’ core, by contrast, is composed of MLB newborns. Yes, the roster features veterans—including left-hander Jon Lester and righty John Lackey, another free agent who jumped ship from St. Louis to Chicago this winter.

But four rookies—Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber—were key contributors to last year’s run. And others, such as 26-year-old slugger Anthony Rizzo and 29-year-old NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta, are in the midst of their primes.

The Cubs’ window is just opening—wide. Does that mean the Cardinals’ is closing?

Maybe not. Mixed in with the older pieces are outfielders Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty, promising rookies in 2015 who are currently slotted into starting roles. Second baseman Kolten Wong, an NL Rookie of the Year finalist in 2014, is 25. And 24-year-old right-hander Carlos Martinez was an All-Star last season before a shoulder strain shut him down.

St. Louis’ farm system isn’t the game’s most loaded—Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked it No. 19—but there are some intriguing pieces in the pipeline, including 21-year-old right-hander Alex Reyes. 

Mostly, the Cardinals can stand on their reputation for developing talent, plugging holes as needed and perennially sitting at or near the top of the NL pecking order.

This franchise hasn’t suffered through a losing season since 2007, made it to the NLCS every year between 2011 and 2014 and won a pennant in 2013 and a World Series in 2011. Players have come and gone. The success has endured.

Call it good fortune, call it design, call it the Cardinal Way. But dismiss this team and its chances at your peril. 

While Heyward’s remarks aren’t likely to spawn a beanball blood feud, they’ll no doubt give St. Louis added motivation when it hosts the Cubs for the first time of the season on April 18.

After Heyward’s press conference and Matheny’s rebuttal, Cardinal Nation succinctly summed up the feelings of, well, Cardinal Nation:

The Cards took an expensive swing at Heyward and missed. Then he took a shot at them and they fired back.

“I think “Mo” [general manager John Mozeliak] did a great job of aggressively trying to push the envelope, the way this organization has done before, but still be responsible,” Matheny said, per Hummel. “But you have to have the other guy play along.”

Now, this rivalry has a few more months to simmer. Maybe we’ll even get a little more spice sprinkled on top. Then prepare to dig in, baseball fans—because this promises to be one tasty storyline.

All statistics current as of Dec. 20 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Jason Heyward signed an eight-year, $184 million contract with the Chicago Cubs this offseason after spending 2015 with the St. Louis Cardinals.

The 26-year-old outfielder was asked about why he chose the Cubs and in his explanation took an shot at his former teammates in the Chicago Tribune (h/t David Brown of CBSSports.com):

Being 26 and knowing my contract would probably put me in any clubhouse longer than most people there, you have to look at age, you have to look at how fast the team is changing and how soon those changes may come about. You have Yadier, who is going to be done in two years maybe. You have Matt Holliday, who is probably going to be done soon.   

There were already moves with Jon Jay gone, and then Tony Cruz, and Wainwright is probably going to be done in three or four years. I think that’s when his contract is up. Not to say he won’t play any longer, but guys like that are what really introduced me to the St. Louis Cardinals organization. I felt like if I was to look up in three years and see a completely different team, that would kind of be difficult.

Chicago really offers an opportunity to come into the culture and be introduced to the culture by a young group of guys. Grow up with them and still watch myself grow up and have some fun with some familiar faces for a long time.

What he said may or may not be true, but it did not go over well with Cardinals manager Mike Matheny, per Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch: “I don’t think it’s going to ring too well with our club.”

Matheny explained his comments in detail, per Hummel:

I told Jason this before. I’ve got a lot of respect for Jason as a person. He’s got to go make the decisions he’s going to have to live with. If that (core group comparison) is a big deal to him, he’s just being honest with people.

But I don’t think we have anything to apologize for in having a group like a Holliday, a Molina, a Wainwright. Those are the kinds of guys everybody wants on a club.

I see where he’s coming from. I mean, look at what Chicago’s done. It’s very unique in this game — to have that many impact players at that young age. And he’s a young player. But I can’t say I’m in any kind of agreement with that (Chicago) core being better than any kind of core that we have.

That veteran group (that the Cardinals have) also helps drive what the younger group turns into.

I don’t blame him. But I don’t like it. I thought we created a really good atmosphere and he had to weigh what was most important to him.

Matheny, 45, did a good job of responding without taking a jab at Heyward. It’s obviously a blow for the Cardinals, as Heyward is coming off a season in which he slashed .293/.359/.439 with 13 home runs and 60 RBI. He also won his second Gold Glove.

Heyward’s now entering his prime with the rival Cubs, who are building a legitimate winner after signing uber-utility player Ben Zobrist.

The comments probably sting just a little more than normal considering the Cubs, who have not won a World Series in more than a century, defeated the Cardinals in the 2015 National League Division Series.

The “money grab” comments were all over social media from Cardinals fans, but given the comments and this information from Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan, that doesn’t seem to be the case:

Most likely these comments will blow over until the next time the Cubs and Cardinals take the field. Who knows if Heyward will get a high and tight fastball, but a St. Louis win against Chicago will be just a little sweeter for the guys in the Cardinals’ clubhouse.

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St. Louis Cardinals fans have every right to feel jilted by Jason Heyward. He didn’t just spurn them, after all. He ran into the arms of their longtime division rival. So the jersey-burning antics, while a touch melodramatic, are somewhat understandable.

Taking the long view, though, this could be a blessing in disguise for the Cards. 

To bring Heyward back, St. Louis was willing to pony up more than the $184 million the Chicago Cubs offered, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, though the average annual value would have been lower than the $23 million Heyward got from Chicago.

Let’s assume Heyward would have gobbled up about $20 million annually out of the Cardinals’ budget. Now, with Heyward instead heading to the Windy City, they can spread that cash around and address multiple needs, including in the starting rotation.

Mostly lost amid all the Heyward shouting has been the fact that the defending National League Central champs need arms—badly.

First, St. Louis lost right-hander Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery. Then, veteran John Lackey—who posted a career-low 2.77 ERA for the Cards last season—bolted for those same pesky Cubbies.

On top of that, ace Adam Wainwright missed nearly the entire 2015 campaign with a busted Achilles tendon, Carlos Martinez was shut down in September with a shoulder strain and Jaime Garcia has had an injury-checkered career. 

That’s a lot of question marks and not enough answers. So it’s no surprise general manager John Mozeliak is prioritizing rotation upgrades over a Heyward consolation prize.

“Just to chase an [outfielder] now is something we won’t do,” Mozeliak said Sunday, per KMOXSports. “My focus now will be to look at how we continue to ramp up pitching.”

Even with top-shelf names like David Price (another missed target for St. Louis) and Zack Greinke off the board, there are ample options. 

On Dec. 6, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported the Cardinals were “looking closely” at Mike Leake, a solid No. 2 or No. 3 talent who spent most of his career in the NL Central with the Cincinnati Reds.

Others in the Leake tier, such as lefties Wei-Yin Chen and Scott Kazmir, also remain unsigned.

Johnny Cueto is an unlikely target considering the ugly incident in 2010 when Cueto, then with Cincinnati, kicked Cardinals catcher Jason LaRue in the face during an on-field fracas. 

But the Cardinals could make a run at Japanese ace Kenta Maeda, as Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal suggested:

The other part of Rosenthal’s tweet is interesting, too. The Cardinals don’t need an outfielder. Matt Holliday in left, Randal Grichuk in center and Stephen Piscotty in right is a solid, if unspectacular, alignment. 

But with the Cubs loading up an already dangerous roster and the Pittsburgh Pirates looming as well, the Cards can’t afford to be complacent. And Gordon—a capable hitter, one of the best defensive left fielders in baseball and a newly minted champion with the Kansas City Royals—would be a welcome addition.

As KMOV.com’s Brian Feldman opined, the Cardinals’ farm system tips toward the pitching side, which lends credence to the idea of locking up a position player long term:

[The] Cardinals depth lies mainly on the pitching side. They grow it on trees, it seems. From Tim Cooney to Marco Gonzales to Alex Reyes to Luke Weaver and so on there is seemingly an endless supply of arms available. …

Offense, however, is a different story. There is no top hitting prospect coming anytime soon. Stephen Piscotty was pretty much the last of the position players who you knew would command an everyday job in St. Louis.

St. Louis could take its Heyward offer and toss it at Justin Upton, another young, five-tool outfielder. Or it could aim for Chris Davis and his game-changing power. 

That would grab more headlines, no question there. And it might appease the jersey-burning crowd. But it would also likely preclude an impact pitching addition. 

As much as it may sting to watch Heyward don a Cubs uniform and scale the ivy next season, St. Louis has an opportunity to plug multiple holes, fill out its roster and enter 2016 a deeper, more complete team.

Cardinals fans, by and large, are noted for being a discerning bunch. Surely they can taste the potential sweetness among the sour grapes.

It always hurts in the moment. Sometimes, though, in relationships and in baseball, being jilted is for the best.

All statistics current as of Dec. 13 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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After a successful run with the St. Louis Cardinals down the stretch last season, right-hander Jonathan Broxton has agreed to a two-year extension with the team. 

Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals announced Broxton’s extension on Thursday. Goold added the team “could still add another reliever” to fill out their bullpen for 2016. 

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Broxton’s deal with the Cardinals is worth $7.5 million and includes a full no-trade clause. 

Broxton’s 2015 season was a whirlwind. He struggled mightily with the Milwaukee Brewers, recording a 5.89 ERA and 41 hits allowed in 36.2 innings, before an August trade to St. Louis. He was a different pitcher after the deal, posting a 2.66 ERA with 20 hits allowed and 26 strikeouts in 23.2 innings. 

The Cardinals are taking a risk giving Broxton two guaranteed years with a full no-trade clause because he’s 31 and has been up and down with ERA totals over 4.00 four times since 2010. He did have his highest average fastball velocity (94.1 mph) since 2012 last season, so that’s an encouraging sign. 

There are a lot of questions in St. Louis this offseason with Jason Heyward still on the market and Lance Lynn out for 2016 after having Tommy John surgery in November, so keeping the bullpen that finished third in ERA last season intact is a good way to stay afloat in a competitive National League Central. 

Retaining Broxton gives the Cardinals a necessary bridge from the seventh and eighth innings to closer Trevor Rosenthal in the ninth. Broxton doesn’t drastically alter St. Louis’ expectations for next season, but he gives the team one less thing to worry about as the front office continues to explore major additions.

Stats per Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise noted 

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The St. Louis Cardinals announced Monday they signed free-agent catcher Brayan Pena to a two-year contract. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Pena’s contract is worth $5 million.   

Pena saw the most extended action of his MLB career over the past two seasons with the Cincinnati Reds. He appeared in 108 games with the club in 2015 and batted .273 with 18 RBI and only 34 strikeouts in 333 official at-bats.        

Prior to his time in Cincinnati, the 33-year-old had stints with the Atlanta Braves and Kansas City Royals before spending the 2013 campaign with the Detroit Tigers.

Upon officially leaving his most recent club for a National League Central rival, Pena expressed his gratitude for his time with the Reds on Twitter.

“Reds fans, I want to thank you guys so much for all your love and respect for me and my family, my time there was AMAZING, thank you so much,” said Pena, adding, “To my teammates, coaches, trainers, front office people, everybody who works on and off the field for Reds Nation, THANK YOU SO MUCH.”

Monday’s acquisition is merely insurance for a Cardinals team that already has a seven-time All-Star and eight-time Gold Glove Award winner in Yadier Molina at Pena’s position. Molina still has three years remaining on a lucrative contract, per Spotrac.com, and he figures to continue being an elite player.

St. Louis now has a veteran backstop option to turn to and an upgrade to last year’s No. 2 catcher, Tony Cruz. Also helping Pena’s cause for playing time is the fact he’s a switch-hitter. He can be serviceable in spot duty with a loaded Cardinals lineup around him.

Manager Mike Matheny has a greater luxury to give Molina rest during a long season prior to what should be another playoff push for the club in 2016 after it finished the 2015 season with baseball’s best record at 100-62.

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The St. Louis Cardinals had many good things going for them in 2015, but power was not one of them. As such, you can’t blame them for having eyes on the best power hitter money can buy.

We can, however, offer a few words of warning: Cardinals, my friends, here’s where you need to tread very, very carefully.

Amidst the flurry of mid-level trades that went down throughout Friday, Jon Morosi of Fox Sports was on to a different story. According to his sources, the Cardinals are interested in free-agent first baseman and reigning home run champion Chris Davis.

On a scale of “Whoa, didn’t see that coming” and “Duh,” this is a rumor that lands toward the latter.

It didn’t stop them from winning 100 games, but the Cardinals didn’t score many runs in 2015. Of the many reasons for that, arguably the biggest was their inability to hit for power. The Cardinals were 25th in MLB with 137 home runs, and were also in the bottom 10 of the league in isolated power.

This is not a new problem. Over the last three years, the Cardinals have ranked in the bottom five of MLB in isolated power. In this span, they haven’t had a single player top 30 home runs.

So, they could use a slugger. You know, like Davis.

Davis, late of the Baltimore Orioles, has become MLB’s Slugger King in recent years. On either side of a down season in 2014, he led MLB with 53 homers in 2013 and 47 home runs in 2015. And even with his down year mixed in, he’s still first in home runs (126) and 13th in OPS (.891) since 2013.

This would be the main justification for the Cardinals circling Davis, who will be 30 in March. Another is how his ties to draft-pick compensation would only cost the Cardinals the No. 30 pick in the 2016 draft. Another is how the Cardinals are operating with extra spending money after inking a $1 billion TV deal.

But here’s the problem: Just because a team could justify signing a player doesn’t mean that signing said player is a good idea. Reality has been known to show up and crash the party.

And with Davis and the Cardinals, that’s a real concern.

First, consider the cost it would take to sign Davis. By almost all accounts, it’s going to be massive.

FanGraphs‘ crowdsourcing project predicted Davis will sign for five years and $100 million. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors, however, puts his price at more like $144 million over six years. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports went even higher, putting Davis’ price tag at seven years and $182 million.

Because power is very much in demand, it seems more likely that Davis will land somewhere in between Dierkes‘ and Heyman‘s projections. That is, probably somewhere in the $150-170 million range.

That’s a lot of money—especially for a team like the Cardinals, whose biggest free-agent splash remains the $120 million they gave Matt Holliday in 2010. A contract for Davis is likely going to top that by $30-50 million, which comes off as a leap even in light of the team’s new TV deal.

Granted, Holliday’s contract has worked out very well. He began it in his age-30 season in 2010, and this past season was the first in which he wasn’t worth the money. Knowing this, Holliday almost looks like a beacon of hope for Davis.

But eh, not actually. If nothing else, there’s the reality that Holliday and Davis are two completely different players.

Though Holliday is a big, strong dude who’s hit for a ton of power, he’s always been a great hitter with power rather than a great power hitter. Davis is the opposite, as he’s a big, strong dude whose power is his only elite asset. He’s at best a solid defensive first baseman. And though he takes his walks, his huge strikeout habit effectively counterbalances that. Take away his power, and there’s not much there.

Mind you, Davis’ power isn’t under imminent threat of being taken away. But it should concern the Cardinals that he’s getting up there in age with his age-30 season due up, as few things take away power like age does.

This is something that Dave Cameron of FanGraphs noted in highlighting why Davis is the biggest potential bust of this year’s free-agent class. Courtesy of SaberCoach, here’s the graph of isolated power’s aging curve that Cameron used to make his point:

According to history, power tends to start declining after a hitter’s mid-20s. Once he gets to his 30s, the decline tends to go into overdrive.

If there’s a reason for optimism for Davis, it’s that he’s a late bloomer. He’s always had tremendous raw power, but it didn’t start showing up in games consistently until a couple of years ago. And with only 883 games in his past, he doesn’t have an excess of mileage on his body. It’s because of this that yours truly doesn’t personally think Davis is as doomed as that graph suggests.

Even still, the ideal team to sign Davis is one that has safeguards in place that could help his power age well. One would be a power-friendly ballpark. Another would be the designated hitter.

Because they play in the National League, the Cardinals don’t have the latter. They don’t have the former, either. Per ESPN.com’s park factors, Busch Stadium has generally been unfriendly to power hitters. It’s quite the departure from Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which loves it some dingers.

What would make it easy to disregard all this is if Davis’ bat stood out as the one thing separating the Cardinals from being ill-equipped and very-well-equipped to continue winning huge numbers of games. If he looked like their missing link, even I would shrug and say, “Oh, screw it. Just go for it!”

But I don’t know, man. It’s hard to take that stance.

Run prevention was the Cardinals’ meal ticket in 2015, as they used a combination of pitching depth and defense to lead the league in runs allowed. But with Lance Lynn out for 2016 with Tommy John surgery and John Lackey testing the open market, pitching depth is suddenly a question mark. Elsewhere, the inevitable loss of Jason Heyward to free agency will mean a big loss for the Cardinals’ defense.

Could signing Davis make up for these shortcomings in one fell swoop? The answer is not a definitive yes. And because a huge contract for him would hinder the Cardinals’ ability to make additional moves in the short term before likely becoming an albatross in the long term, well, what’s the point?

A better approach for the Cardinals would be to take the money and spread it around. They could acquire more pitching depth and shore up their offense with several solid bats instead of one big bat.

Besides which, Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak might have been on to something when he spoke of his incumbent offense having some upside going forward.

Mozeliak said this last month, via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

You look at our roster and you could argue that there are a couple players who are on the backside of their careers, but you could also argue that there are five or six who could be in that lineup and have a lot more upside. That’s what we need to sort of focus on. We do need to improve our offense. But I don’t think it’s as drastic as other people interpret it.

He may be right. The Cardinals should enjoy full seasons from breakout stars Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk, as well as a healthy Matt Adams and, hopefully, healthier versions of Holliday and Jon Jay. And at 25, Kolten Wong could be ready for his own big breakout.

Basically, our message to the Cardinals is this: As much as you may want Davis, you don’t need him.

This is assuming, of course, that the Cardinals haven’t already figured this out. Being interested in a player isn’t the same as being desperate to sign a player, and their strong track record with free agency says they know when to recognize the difference.

Now’s the time to do it again.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Starting pitching was the least of the St. Louis Cardinals‘ problems in 2015. Even despite losing Adam Wainwright for the bulk of the year, the Cardinals rotation still racked up an MLB-best 2.99 ERA.

If St. Louis is going to keep that vibe going into 2016, however, it has some work to do.

The Cardinals rotation was dealt a significant blow Tuesday, as the club announced that ever-solid right-hander Lance Lynn has been lost for the 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery:

Just like that, the St. Louis rotation is down a man with a 2.87 ERA over the last two seasons and a 3.38 ERA over 756.2 innings dating back to 2012. That is to say it’s down one of the National League‘s better starters. That smarts.

And now that Lynn is out for the count, it’s impossible to ignore how the Cardinals’ starting pitching is suddenly looking a bit thin.

Beyond losing Lynn, this week has also seen St. Louis lose top prospect Alex Reyes to a 50-game suspension for a second positive test for a drug of abuse. According to Stan McNeal of Cardinals Magazine, Reyes is a guy whom Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak believed to be “knocking on the door” in 2016, so losing him is a blow.

Elsewhere, there’s the reality that John Lackey, 37, is a free agent. If the Cardinals lose him, they’ll be bidding adieu to a seemingly ageless veteran who contributed a 2.77 ERA and 218 innings in 2015.

So suffice it to say that starting pitching has gone from being a luxury to being an area of need for the Cardinals. Their options are to either move forward and make do with what they have or make an effort to solve the problem on the winter market.

Spoiler alert: You can expect the Cardinals to do the latter.

Mind you, the Cardinals theoretically could stand pat and make do with what they have.

They’re down a few bodies, but they still have Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia lined up for 2016. That gives them four starters with pretty good potential, which is more than most teams have.

But the notion that the Cardinals are now going to be active on the winter market isn’t just an educated guess. Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, it comes straight from Mozeliak himself:

The obvious indication here is that Mozeliak isn’t entirely comfortable with his quartet of Wainwright, Wacha, Martinez and Garcia. Nor should he be. 

Those four have talent, but durability is another issue. Wainwright is a 34-year-old with a lot of mileage on him. Wacha was out of gas by the end of his first full season in 2015. Martinez’s 2015 campaign ended early due to a shoulder injury. Garcia’s own injury woes have limited him to just 56 starts since 2012.

All these things considered, Mozeliak would be wise to at least find some depth for his rotation. An even better idea would be to go on the hunt for a top-of-the-rotation starter who could help maintain order if things were to fall apart.

Either way, the Cardinals are in a good spot. Because as much or more than any other winter market in recent memory, this year’s is loaded with starting pitching.

If it’s a top-of-the-rotation starter the Cardinals desire, they could go after David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann or Johnny Cueto. If they don’t want to go quite that big, they could pursue a reunion with Lackey or target one of the market’s other B-list options: Mike Leake, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir, Wei-Yin Chen, Yovani Gallardo, Hisashi Iwakuma, Ian Kennedy or Marco Estrada.

Of course, this is typically where we acknowledge the gap between what a small-market team like the Cardinals would like to do and what it actually can do. In situations like these, there are usually a few barriers between a club and its ideal scenarios.

But in this situation? Not so much, actually.

Money is usually a big issue, but the Cardinals could be in a worse place there. They do have over $100 million in salary commitments and, per MLB Trade Rumors, $27 million in projected arbitration payouts on the books for 2016, putting them in line to top their roughly $120 million Opening Day payroll from 2015. However, it’s equally significant that the Cardinals’ long-term future isn’t bogged down by big-money contracts.

As Charlie Wilmoth of MLB Trade Rumors noted in his offseason preview for St. Louis, the club could look to take advantage of that:

Given their very limited future commitments ($65MM in 2016, $33MM in 2017, and practically nothing after that), though, it would seem possible for the Cardinals to increase their payroll somewhat for 2016 with the understanding that they can limit their spending in the future if they need to.

The other thing that tends to be an issue for clubs in free agency is draft-pick compensation. Players who reject qualifying offers present teams with the question of whether it’s worth surrendering a first-round pick to sign them, which is always a tough question. This winter, that crop of players is likely to include Greinke, Zimmermann, Samardzija, Chen, Gallardo, Iwakuma, Kennedy and Estrada.

The good news, though, is that Price, Cueto, Leake and Kazmir are not tied to draft-pick compensation, as they were barred from receiving qualifying offers thanks to midseason trades. Likewise, the Cardinals won’t have to give up a pick if they were to re-sign Lackey. If they really don’t want to compromise their position in next year’s draft, they have options.

And, heck, even having to surrender a draft pick to sign somebody for their rotation may not be a deal-breaker for the Cardinals.

After all, them surrendering their first-round pick in 2016 would only require them to give up the No. 30 overall selection. And if both Lackey and Jason Heyward were to sign elsewhere, the Cardinals would gain two compensatory draft picks. One way or another, it’s basically impossible for them to seriously damage their standing in the 2016 draft.

Goold is right about the Cardinals generally refusing to go big on the free-agent pitching market. In fact, the last time they spent significant money on a starter was when they signed Jake Westbrook back in 2010, and that was only for two years and $16.5 million.

But if ever there was a time for St. Louis to change things up, it’s now. It certainly has the need, and both the money and draft concerns are relatively small issues. 

At the same time, we need to recognize that the Cardinals could make some noise on the trade market if they choose to go that route instead.

St. Louis isn’t especially rich with top prospects, to be sure. But it does have a couple of talented young hitters in Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty whom it could build a package around and go for an ace starter. Just to name a few possibilities, that could be the team’s ticket to landing Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Carrasco or, even better, Sonny Gray or Matt Harvey.

It’s never a good thing to lose a starting pitcher to Tommy John. It’s an even worse thing to lose a starting pitcher to Tommy John at a time when the rotation he belongs to was already looking a bit thin. If the Cardinals had their druthers, they wouldn’t be in the position they now find themselves in.

But things could definitely be worse. The Cardinals are in need of quality starting pitching at a time when there’s a whole bunch of quality starting pitching available, and at a time when they have what they need to help themselves.

If that’s not an excuse to go all out, nothing is.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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