Kuzul

While the St. Louis Cardinals did make a move before Tuesday afternoon’s non-waiver trade deadline, their NL Central opponents made a bigger splash.

Will the Cardinals be able to make it past the Pittsburgh Pirates or the Cincinnati Reds? Have those teams shown they mean business in 2012?

I think the second question answers itself.

The first question, however, isn’t as clear-cut as some may think.

Through 102 games, the Reds sit atop the Central Division with a 61-41 record. They don’t need to get too comfortable, though.

The Pirates, 58-44, follow by only three games and made several moves in the last week. showing that they plan to go all-in for 2012.

The Cardinals sit seven full games out of first place with a 54-48 record and made only one move before the trade deadline. Is it enough?

Follow the break to see how these deals affect the Cardinals’ efforts to defend their title.

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If the St. Louis Cardinals are considering dealing the organization’s top-pitching prospect, Shelby Miller, there are a handful of potentially available pitchers they could go after.

While there is no guarantee they would be willing to part ways with him, his performance in 2012 has at least shown that he is not untouchable.

His last start was a major improvement, but he has not easily made the transition to Triple-A baseball.

Miller is 4-8 on the season with a 5.79 ERA with the Memphis Redbirds. In 82.1 innings pitched through 18 starts, the 21-year-old RHP has surrendered 17 home runs and 46 walks.

On the positive side, he also has 94 strikeouts. He still has some nasty pitches, but has not responded well to the improved hitting of the Pacific Coast League. Opposing batters are hitting .280 off of him to date.

Don’t let his record fool you. Miller still has what it takes to develop into a top-tier major league pitcher.

While his trade value might not be what it would have been last year, many clubs still know what he is capable of when he gets back on track.

If the Cardinals did decide to move him, what kind of impact players could they get?

In the case of most top-tier starting pitchers, Miller alone won’t make a deal. Following are a list of pitchers that might make the Cardinals more likely to move Miller.

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The St. Louis Cardinals should still be viewed as serious contenders in the second half of the 2012 MLB season despite the loss of Chris Carpenter.

While the loss of any team’s co-ace starting pitcher is a huge blow, the Cardinals have already shown this year that they have what it takes to weather the storm.

In Carpenter’s absence, the team has put together an impressive first half.

With as many as seven key players on the disabled list at once, the Cardinals pushed through a tough May and a tougher early June to find themselves only 2.5 games out of first place and six games over .500 at the All-Star break.

Given the Cardinals’ tough schedule in June and the problems they faced, they could easily be much farther down in the standings.

Following are four reasons the Cardinals will still be legitimate contenders without Carpenter.

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The St. Louis Cardinals have certainly faced their share of adversity in 2012.

As injury after injury has swept through the team, they have managed to stay competitive. Even through slumps, the Cardinals still remain less than three games out of the National League Central lead.

While the Cardinals disabled list has thinned recently with the return of Skip Schumaker, Allen Craig, Jon Jay and Matt Carpenter, there are still a handful of impact players out of the lineup.

The Cardinals are 7-3 since their return through Monday, July 2. Prior to that, the team was 7-11 in the month of June.

All who remain are making progress, but some faster than others.

Continue reading for updates on those who remain on the disabled list.

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Last night against the Miami Marlins the Cardinals came back to win a game in which they trailed in the eighth inning for the first time this season. They were 0-26 in those situations until Monday night.

However, the Redbirds’ bullpen tried their best to punt the game to the Marlins in the seventh as Fernando Salas got just one out while allowing runners to reach second and third. Scatter-armed Eduardo Sanchez followed and walked three men in a row—the first intentionally with the other two coming Rick Ankiel-style.

The Cardinal relievers walked eight batters on the night in 10 innings.

Fortunately for St. Louis, Heath Bell and the Marlins’ bullpen have had continuing struggles of their own and blew a four-run lead in the ninth (but at least they forced the Cards to, you know—hit the ball).

Jason Motte was fortunate that Jose Reyes’ scorching liner to center was right at outfielder Shane Robinson to end a strange night of baseball.

While we give manager Mike Matheny and GM John Mozeliak a moment to wipe their brows, let’s look at five trades that would immediately help the Cardinals’ stressed bullpen.

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With the return of Jon Jay and Matt Carpenter, two of the St. Louis Cardinals casualties from the month May, the team seems to have begun playing good baseball. What, or whom, is responsible for the recent offensive upturn?

For the majority of two months, the St. Louis Cardinals have struggled offensively. Whether it’s getting hits, scoring runs or working with runners in scoring position, they kept falling short.

In recent days, however, things have begun to change. Slumps are ending, both for players and the team. While the Cardinals are 4-4 in their last eight games, a deeper look shows a much better trend than the win-loss record indicates.

Following are 10 signs that the Cardinals offense is coming back to life.

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After another great outing from Adam Wainwright, the St. Louis Cardinals fall again after bullpen struggles and defensive miscues continue to plague the team.

Wainwright put together a big night going seven innings giving up only two runs on five hits with seven strikeouts. By any stretch, that’s a great night. Not only was he pitching well, he got an early base hit and made a pair of key defensive plays.

It was clear early on that he was going to have to do it all.

The game fell apart only moments after Wainwright went to the bench.

Marc Rzepczynski came in and barely pulled one out before giving up two runs on three hits including a monster home run to Adam Dunn (21).

RHP Mitchell Boggs then came in to clean up the mess, but with no luck. Boggs got the final two outs of the eighth inning, but not before giving up a two-run home run to take the game to 6-1.

The only real glimmer of hope the bullpen showed was from Fernando Salas who faced only four batters in the ninth inning to get the final outs. Salas is beginning to get himself together and it couldn’t come at a more opportune time for this team.

The offense managed to string together hits on multiple occasions with the team batting .275 on the night, but were haunted by the double play three times.

Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, David Freese and Tyler Greene all went 2-for-4, but never managed to hold together a rally long enough to circle the bases.

Yadier Molina, who batted second for only the second time in his career, went 1-for-4 with a key double in the top of the third. It’s unclear as of yet whether Molina will spend much time that high in the lineup, but he’s hit well enough of late that he can handle the challenge.

At this point, it appears Manager Mike Matheny is doing everything in his power to get the faltering team back on track.

Wainwright (5-7) wound up taking the loss Tuesday night, but he deserved better. The frustration is clearly mounting with the team as they continue to slide further away from the top of the National League Central Division. 

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One St. Louis Cardinal is rapidly making his way toward a rather exclusive club this season. Carlos Beltran is within hitting distance, no pun intended, of the 300-300-2000 club.

This status is reserved for players who have hit 300 home runs, stolen 300 bases and amassed 2,000 hits over their career. Lots of talk has floated about Beltran hitting 300-300, but the 2,000 hasn’t gotten much attention.

As of Tuesday, June 12, 2012, Beltran has 320 home runs, 299 stolen bases and 1,977 hits. Barring a major injury, he will make the club in 2012 without breaking a sweat.

Following are the few players who have made the club, including a few near-misses.

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St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright will take the mound tonight in anticipation of his sixth win of 2012.

Wainwright, who is still getting back to form following Tommy John surgery in 2011, has seen more success in his last four outings than all season.

His sinker sinks again. His curve moves again. That wasn’t the case earlier in the season.

Wainwright’s road back has been a rocky one. So far in 2012 he has bounced back and forth between good starts and, well, not so good ones. We’ve seen glimmers of hope and moments of the old Wainwright, but his last few outings have shown more than a glimmer.

It has been the culmination of 15 months of rehab and hard work to re-discover himself as a pitcher.

Tonight, he will face off against Jose Quintana, the rookie pitcher for the Chicago White Sox. Quintana is 1-1 on the season and has posted a 2.05 ERA in his first five big-league starts. He has given up only 15 hits to date which could be a problem for the Cardinals stymied offense.

In his last four starts, Wainwright is 3-1 and has pitched 27 innings. He’s given up a total of 11 runs, but seven of those came against the New York Mets. He’s also posted 25 strikeouts and surrendered only five walks. Over the last 10 games, he has an ERA of 4.08.

His season numbers are somewhat inflated at the moment, mainly due to his April struggles. Assuming he continues to go the direction he has been headed of late, they will correct themselves.

While it’s likely he won’t look great in every outing, a few simple successes are exactly what he needed. He and the world have been reminded of just how dangerous he can be when he is in the zone.

One thing is for sure, a pitcher with his drive and that amount of natural-born talent won’t go down without a fight. It will likely be July before the dominant pitcher who won 19 games in 2009 and 20 in 2010 is here to stay.

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Continuing in Dugout Central’s annual pre-season ritual, I am going to present my predictions for the National League Heartland – er – Central Division in 2012. Last year saw an early-season surge by the generally hapless Pittsburgh Pirates, only to see them fall right back in the race where they’ve been for the better part of 20 seasons. July 17 saw Milwaukee Brewers pick-up Zack Greinke out-duel then-Cub Carlos Zambrano 2-0 to put the Brewers up half a game on the St. Louis Cardinals and 1.5 on Pittsburgh. The Brewers didn’t look back, going 41-17 from that game to win their first division title in 29 years. However, the last laugh was had by the Cardinals, who snuck into the wild card spot and defeated the Brewers in the NLCS en route to their NL-best 11^th World Championship.

There were some major shake-ups both in the front office and on the field, ensuring that 2012 would be an exciting new year for the division.

Chicago Cubs

2011: 71-91, 5th Place, 25 GB, Scored 4.04 R/G (8^th in NL), Allowed 4.67 R/G (14^th in NL)

Key Losses: Aramis Ramirez (3B), Carlos Pena (1B), Carlos Zambrano (SP)

Key Additions: David Dejesus (OF), Ian Stewart (3B), Paul Maholm (SP)

Why they could win it all: The bright spot on the Chicago Cubs last year was the left side of the infield. While Aramis Ramirez packed his bags and moved up north, the Cubs feature one of the bright young stars in the game in Starlin Castro. Just 21 years old, Castro led the National League in hits last year with 207. A little more patience on both sides of the ball (he had almost as many errors as walks) will result in him being one of the players that the Cubs can build around moving forward.

Why they could fail: The Cubs completely revamped their front office by bringing in Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, both of whom have been successful executives at the big league level. However, the damage from the Hendry regime has been done. Alfonso Soriano is eating a tremendous amount of payroll to play poorly (just 2.0 WAR total since 2009), as is Carlos Zambrano (to play for Miami). A 1-year turn-around just won’t be possible with the mess left-over. However, a big payroll and smart people to manage it may mean good things for the Cubs in the future as it did for the Red Sox.

What to watch: Alfonso Soriano needs to go, as he is deadweight in most aspects of his game. His .289 OBP and lackluster outfield defense have made his 136 million dollar contract one of the worst in history. Look for the Cubs to exploit a possible fast start by Soriano and turn it into a trade to an AL team, where he could potentially serve as a platoon DH. The key won’t be the player acquired, but rather the amount of salary his new team will be willing to eat.

2012 Prediction: 66-96, 5^th place

Cincinnati Reds

2011: 79-83, 3^rd Place, Scored 4.54 R/G (2nd in NL), Allowed 4.44 R/G (12^th in NL)

Key Losses: Francisco Cordero (RP)Edgar Renteria (SS), Edinson Volquez (SP), Travis Wood (SP), Yonder Alonso (1B/OF)

Key Additions: Mat Latos (SP), Sean Marshall (RP), Ryan Madson (RP)

Why they could win it all: Remember that the Reds did win the division in 2010, posting over 90 wins before falling to Roy Halladay and the Phillies in the NLDS. The Reds did out-score their opponents on the year, and made a couple of nice pick-ups in Ryan Madson and Mat Latos. The offense is as potent as ever, with Joey Votto leading the charge as the best 1B in the division with Fielder and Pujols gone (though some may argue he had already reached that plateau).

Why they could fail: The Reds continue to employ Dusty Baker as their manager, so it’s hard to be shocked when they underperform their expected win-loss (not that a manager is necessarily responsible for that, but he can be). The rotation is a mess; Bronson Arroyo’s over the hill, and yet, he was the only Reds starter to make 30 starts last season, besides Mat Latos, recently acquired from the Padres. Latos has had good numbers in his first couple seasons, but he’s going from pitching half his games at the most pitcher-friendly park in the game to starting those games at one of the most hitter-friendly.

What to watch: Drew Stubbs was the leadoff hitter for most of the year. His league-worst 205 strikeouts wouldn’t be so alarming if he followed them up with actual on-base ability…which he does not (just a .321 OBP last year). Here’s a guy with some good tools, but he’s depriving Votto and Bruce of RBI opportunities by reaching so sparingly. Not saying he should be replaced on the team – his center field defense alone makes him worthwhile – but he shouldn’t lead-off.

2012 Prediction: 86-76, 3^rd place

Houston Astros

2011: 56-106, 6^th place, 40 GB, Scored 3.80 R/G (13^th in NL), Allowed 4.91 R/G (16^th in NL)

Key Losses: Jeff Keppinger (IF) Michael Bourn (OF), Hunter Pence (OF) [all mid-season last year]

Key Additions: Like, 100 prospects (including Jonathan Singleton and Jarred Cosart).

 Why they could win it all: Wandy Rodriguez was solid yet again last year; over the past three years, he has a very nice 118 ERA+ and 1.279 WHIP. Unfortunately, he’s no Old Hoss Radbourn, and as such, can’t start every game for the Astros next year. Also, he has about as much chance of being an Astro come the trading deadline as I do.

Why they could fail: They were 56-106, added nothing at the big league level, and will now be without Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn for the entire 2012 season, as opposed to just half of it. The team that once owned this division like nobody’s business in the Killer-B years is now poised to leave it for the American League West, where, on a brighter note, they will have the luxury of facing the Mariners 18 or so times a year. I’ll be nice and give them 55 wins…and I’m thinking that’s probably optimistic.  

What to watch: Carlos Lee is in the final year of a 6-year, 100 million dollar deal that I still don’t understand. Let’s see if he plays well enough to eek out another deal before hanging up his spikes or if El Caballo is happy being a rich guy with 350 career home runs.

2012 Prediction: 55-107, Last Place.

Milwaukee Brewers

2011: 96-66, 1^st Place,  Scored 4.45 R/G (5^th in NL), Allowed 3.94 R/G (6^th in NL)

Key Losses: Prince Fielder (1B), Casey McGehee (3B), Yuniesky Betancourt (SS), Takashi Saito (RP), LaTroy Hawkins (RP)

Key Additions: Aramis Ramirez (3B), Alex Gonzalez (SS), Jose Veras (RP), Norichika Aoki (OF)

Why they could win: The Brewers won the NL Central last season, and while they lost their superstar first baseman Prince Fielder, they patched up their two biggest holes – the left side of the infield. Despite winning 96 games last year, the Brewers featured the absolute worst third baseman and shortstop in the game. Aramis Ramirez has been a fixture in the division for the last decade with both the Pirates and Cubs, making two all-star teams. He won his first silver slugger last season, after hitting .306/.361/.510 with 26 home runs and 93 RBI for the hapless Cubs in 2011. Meanwhile Alex Gonzalez will take over at shortstop; he has roughly the same plate presence as Yuni Betancourt (horrific), but is a well-regarded fielder at the position and will certainly represent an upgrade. Finally, the Brewers have just received a major shot in the arm as their team leader and reigning NL MVP Ryan Braun has been cleared of all charges regarding a failed drug test last October.

Why they could fail: Losing Prince changes the landscape of this offense – Aramis Ramirez just isn’t going to be able to spell the same level of protection for Braun. Furthermore, there are just too many question marks. Will Mat Gamel be the hitter he was always projected to be, or will he be the hitter he has been in parts of 4 big league seasons? Will Randy Wolf continue to defy his peripherals? Will Greinke ever perform even close to the level he did in 2009? And what’s with this Aoki guy? He’s won 3 batting titles in Japan, but can we expect that to even remotely resemble what he does in the Majors? Lastly – does anyone think the Brewers will go 30-18 in 1-run games next season?

What to watch: Corey Hart is obviously going to be playing every day. That leaves two positions – either CF and RF or 1B and CF up for grabs. I say that because Hart can play 1^st and it isn’t clear that Mat Gamel can perform at the big league level. The Brewers have a solid center field platoon lined up with Nyjer Morgan (who hit over .300 last year) and Carlos Gomez (one of the best defenders in the game). But what about the Japanese batting champion, Aoki? Will Morgan show he can replicate his 2011 performance? All we know for sure is that Hart is playing every day and Gomez is only starting against southpaws and finding his ways into other games as a pinch runner and late-inning defensive replacement. All told, this makes for an incredible log-jam – and that’s before you start including all of Morgan’s alter-ego’s.

2012 Prediction: 87-75, 2^nd place

Pittsburgh Pirates

2011: 72-90, 4th place, 24 GB, Scored 3.77 R/G (14^th in NL), Allowed 4.40 R/G (11^th in NL)

Key Losses: Paul Maholm (SP), Ryan Ludwick (OF), Derrek Lee (1B), Jose Veras (RP)

Key Gains: AJ Burnett (SP), Erik Bedard (SP), Casey McGehee (3B), Rod Barajas (C), Clint Barmes (SS)

Why they could win: Gotta hand it to the Pirates – they made quite the turn-around last year. After winning just 57 games in 2010 (while placing last in both runs scored and runs allowed), the Pirates jumped out as contenders early-on and were in first place as late as July 25^th. They went just 19-43 from that point on, however, all while tacking on a pair of has-been veterans in an effort to put them over the top. There exists a fine young group of talented players on this team, however, led by Andrew McCutchen – who had a break-out first half and is one of the best players in the National League.

Why they might fail: Their first half made for a great story but it can be chalked up to flukiness. A lot of players came back down to Earth in a hurry, most of which were to be expected. All-star Kevin Correia struggled mightily in the 2^nd half, failing to qualify for the ERA title, not that his 4.79 mark would have gotten the job done. No Pittsburgh starter made it to 175 innings, and it’s highly unlikely that AJ Burnett will turn that around. No regular hit over .275 or OPS’d over .830 and only McCutchen was a measurable force of any kind. They’ve got a major talent on their hands in center field, but given the Pirates’ history, he’ll be fulfilling that potential in some place besides Pittsburgh.  

Things to watch: Joel Hanrahan emerged out of nowhere last season to be one of the National League’s premier relievers. However, like most closers, he was criminally mis-managed, as Clint Hurdle saved him only for save situations – including an 18-inning affair against the Braves that ended on a blown call. Has Hurdle learned his lesson? The fans at PNC better hope so.

2012 Prediction: 73-89, 4^th Place

St. Louis Cardinals

2011: World Series Champs, 90-72, 2^nd place, 6 GB, Scored 4.70 R/G (1^st in NL), Allowed 4.27  R/G (9^th in NL)

Key Losses: Albert Pujols (1B), Edwin Jackson (SP), Octavio Dotel (RP)

Key Gains: Carlos Beltran (OF), Adam Wainwright (SP)

Why they could win: The departure of one of the greatest players to ever play the game certainly could spell doom, but GM John Mozeliak did a fantastic job of overcoming that loss by signing future hall-of-famer Carlos Beltran to an affordable 2-year deal, locking up Lance Berkman and Chris Carpenter for 2 years before the season even ended, and bringing back spark-plug Rafael Furcal. They would be better off for 2012 with Albert Pujols, but 10 years at 24 million per season was just too much – and I think Mozeliak made the right call by thinking beyond 2012 (apparently, he doesn’t take Mayans too seriously). Holliday-Berkman-Beltran spell the best heart of the order in this division and the return of Adam Wainwright to the rotation means that the Cardinals have the pitching necessary to take them back to the post-season. They are my pick to win the division.

Why they could fail: They did undergo some changes, that’s for sure. Mike Matheny will take over for Tony LaRussa and the great pitching coach Dave Duncan will not be around for 2012, as he is helping his wife, Jeanine during her bout with cancer. And of course, Albert Pujols is no longer a Cardinal. This could have far-reaching effects beyond the .328/.420/.617, 42 HR, 126 RBI line he averaged in eleven years as a Cardinal. Losing Pujols means everyone gets pitched to differently, it means teams can approach situations differently, and it means that lesser players have to take up the slack. That’s not to hate on Berkman, Holliday, Beltran, or NLCS & World Series MVP David Freese – but there’s excellent ballplayers, and then there are transcendent ballplayers. Pujols was the latter.

What to watch: All eyes will be on Adam Wainwright, who returns this season after losing 2011 to Tommy John surgery. Wainwright placed top-3 in the last two Cy Young ballots, posting 11.9 WAR in that time span. He pitched over 230 innings in both years but is unlikely to reach 200 this season in his recovery. We’ll see how his new arm ligaments hold up.

2011 Prediction: 92-70, 1^st Place

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