Kuzul

What do you do when you have a young talent who has a great hit tool but makes more errors than a weatherman’s forecast? And is run prevention as important as run production?

Those are some of the questions surrounding the Cubs new field manager and coaches as they work with the Cubs young shortstop, Starlin Castro, who made two more errors on Saturday.

It would be easy to say that he needs to move off of shortstop, but that is not only too simplistic of a solution, it may not be a solution at all. Not only would they have to find a position he can play well, but they would be reducing his value since he plays a premium defensive position.

He is too inexperienced to be given up on now, for good shortstops are so hard to find. The Cubs need to continue to work with Castro and make absolutely sure before they move him to second or third base.

Look, a lot of Castro’s errors come on throws, and there are long throws from third base. And second base is no picnic, either. Making the pivot on the double play is an important skill and who’s to say that Castro can handle that?

Meanwhile, Dale Sveum and his staff realize that the job in front of them is a critical one, for Castro is the Cubs shining light in an otherwise dismal rebuilding period. Getting him to cut down on his mistakes is a challenging, yet necessary effort.

The new “Cubs Way” focuses on defense. But Castro makes some delicious stops on balls hit to his right, and often travels a long way to tackle pop-ups that his predecessors could never reach. He does all that in between errors, which he makes a lot of.

Castro is only 22 years old, so he requires patience. Still, in 290 games,  he has made 60 errors.

Now, errors and fielding percentage aren’t necessarily valid ways to measure defensive value. Players who have better range get to more balls so it’s not uncommon for them to make more errors.

But at some point it has to get better—the errors have to be reduced. Hopefully, the work they’re doing with Castro pays off and he improves. If not, you know he will play somewhere, as his bat is just too good for him to sit on the bench.

Castro is the only “star” on Sveum‘s current roster, though Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson should be joining him at some point this season. But he won’t be the poster boy for what the new Cubs are trying to do, as they stress defense and on-base percentage, two of the weak spots in his game.

But the thing that makes me concerned is that many of his errors aren’t due to mechanical issues, which can be cleaned up. They are due to lapses of concentration.

We all painfully recall last season when, on national TV, Bobby Valentine noticed that Castro had his back turned on a play. That lack of concentration is not only embarrassing, it cannot be tolerated, no matter how old or how good a player is.

And those kinds of things certainly aren’t part of the Cubs Way. If this kind of stuff is allowed to continue, the danger is that other players will see this and figure that it’s no big deal.

Shortstop is the most critical defensive position on the field. It was encouraging to see that former major league SS Mariano Duncan worked closely with Castro during the offseason in the Dominican Republic. They say that he is very coachable, so there is hope for better days.

But what Castro needs is specific instruction on what he needs to change and hopefully this is where Sveum and his staff will do better than Mike Quade and Lou Piniella were able to do.  They always just said he’s young and needs to focus, but it seems like Sveum is pointing specific changes, such as keeping his head still while throwing to first base, stuff like that.

So how long can the Cubs put up with the errors? Well, I’d say that the potential payoff is too great not to give it at least one more full season before even thinking about moving Castro to another position. If he does improve, it will make him one of the best players in the game, since there are so few shortstops can play good defense and hit the way Castro can hit the ball.  

While there may be a batting title in the kid’s future. But a gold glove? That remains to be seen.

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Continuing in Dugout Central’s annual pre-season ritual, I am going to present my predictions for the National League Heartland – er – Central Division in 2012. Last year saw an early-season surge by the generally hapless Pittsburgh Pirates, only to see them fall right back in the race where they’ve been for the better part of 20 seasons. July 17 saw Milwaukee Brewers pick-up Zack Greinke out-duel then-Cub Carlos Zambrano 2-0 to put the Brewers up half a game on the St. Louis Cardinals and 1.5 on Pittsburgh. The Brewers didn’t look back, going 41-17 from that game to win their first division title in 29 years. However, the last laugh was had by the Cardinals, who snuck into the wild card spot and defeated the Brewers in the NLCS en route to their NL-best 11^th World Championship.

There were some major shake-ups both in the front office and on the field, ensuring that 2012 would be an exciting new year for the division.

Chicago Cubs

2011: 71-91, 5th Place, 25 GB, Scored 4.04 R/G (8^th in NL), Allowed 4.67 R/G (14^th in NL)

Key Losses: Aramis Ramirez (3B), Carlos Pena (1B), Carlos Zambrano (SP)

Key Additions: David Dejesus (OF), Ian Stewart (3B), Paul Maholm (SP)

Why they could win it all: The bright spot on the Chicago Cubs last year was the left side of the infield. While Aramis Ramirez packed his bags and moved up north, the Cubs feature one of the bright young stars in the game in Starlin Castro. Just 21 years old, Castro led the National League in hits last year with 207. A little more patience on both sides of the ball (he had almost as many errors as walks) will result in him being one of the players that the Cubs can build around moving forward.

Why they could fail: The Cubs completely revamped their front office by bringing in Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, both of whom have been successful executives at the big league level. However, the damage from the Hendry regime has been done. Alfonso Soriano is eating a tremendous amount of payroll to play poorly (just 2.0 WAR total since 2009), as is Carlos Zambrano (to play for Miami). A 1-year turn-around just won’t be possible with the mess left-over. However, a big payroll and smart people to manage it may mean good things for the Cubs in the future as it did for the Red Sox.

What to watch: Alfonso Soriano needs to go, as he is deadweight in most aspects of his game. His .289 OBP and lackluster outfield defense have made his 136 million dollar contract one of the worst in history. Look for the Cubs to exploit a possible fast start by Soriano and turn it into a trade to an AL team, where he could potentially serve as a platoon DH. The key won’t be the player acquired, but rather the amount of salary his new team will be willing to eat.

2012 Prediction: 66-96, 5^th place

Cincinnati Reds

2011: 79-83, 3^rd Place, Scored 4.54 R/G (2nd in NL), Allowed 4.44 R/G (12^th in NL)

Key Losses: Francisco Cordero (RP)Edgar Renteria (SS), Edinson Volquez (SP), Travis Wood (SP), Yonder Alonso (1B/OF)

Key Additions: Mat Latos (SP), Sean Marshall (RP), Ryan Madson (RP)

Why they could win it all: Remember that the Reds did win the division in 2010, posting over 90 wins before falling to Roy Halladay and the Phillies in the NLDS. The Reds did out-score their opponents on the year, and made a couple of nice pick-ups in Ryan Madson and Mat Latos. The offense is as potent as ever, with Joey Votto leading the charge as the best 1B in the division with Fielder and Pujols gone (though some may argue he had already reached that plateau).

Why they could fail: The Reds continue to employ Dusty Baker as their manager, so it’s hard to be shocked when they underperform their expected win-loss (not that a manager is necessarily responsible for that, but he can be). The rotation is a mess; Bronson Arroyo’s over the hill, and yet, he was the only Reds starter to make 30 starts last season, besides Mat Latos, recently acquired from the Padres. Latos has had good numbers in his first couple seasons, but he’s going from pitching half his games at the most pitcher-friendly park in the game to starting those games at one of the most hitter-friendly.

What to watch: Drew Stubbs was the leadoff hitter for most of the year. His league-worst 205 strikeouts wouldn’t be so alarming if he followed them up with actual on-base ability…which he does not (just a .321 OBP last year). Here’s a guy with some good tools, but he’s depriving Votto and Bruce of RBI opportunities by reaching so sparingly. Not saying he should be replaced on the team – his center field defense alone makes him worthwhile – but he shouldn’t lead-off.

2012 Prediction: 86-76, 3^rd place

Houston Astros

2011: 56-106, 6^th place, 40 GB, Scored 3.80 R/G (13^th in NL), Allowed 4.91 R/G (16^th in NL)

Key Losses: Jeff Keppinger (IF) Michael Bourn (OF), Hunter Pence (OF) [all mid-season last year]

Key Additions: Like, 100 prospects (including Jonathan Singleton and Jarred Cosart).

 Why they could win it all: Wandy Rodriguez was solid yet again last year; over the past three years, he has a very nice 118 ERA+ and 1.279 WHIP. Unfortunately, he’s no Old Hoss Radbourn, and as such, can’t start every game for the Astros next year. Also, he has about as much chance of being an Astro come the trading deadline as I do.

Why they could fail: They were 56-106, added nothing at the big league level, and will now be without Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn for the entire 2012 season, as opposed to just half of it. The team that once owned this division like nobody’s business in the Killer-B years is now poised to leave it for the American League West, where, on a brighter note, they will have the luxury of facing the Mariners 18 or so times a year. I’ll be nice and give them 55 wins…and I’m thinking that’s probably optimistic.  

What to watch: Carlos Lee is in the final year of a 6-year, 100 million dollar deal that I still don’t understand. Let’s see if he plays well enough to eek out another deal before hanging up his spikes or if El Caballo is happy being a rich guy with 350 career home runs.

2012 Prediction: 55-107, Last Place.

Milwaukee Brewers

2011: 96-66, 1^st Place,  Scored 4.45 R/G (5^th in NL), Allowed 3.94 R/G (6^th in NL)

Key Losses: Prince Fielder (1B), Casey McGehee (3B), Yuniesky Betancourt (SS), Takashi Saito (RP), LaTroy Hawkins (RP)

Key Additions: Aramis Ramirez (3B), Alex Gonzalez (SS), Jose Veras (RP), Norichika Aoki (OF)

Why they could win: The Brewers won the NL Central last season, and while they lost their superstar first baseman Prince Fielder, they patched up their two biggest holes – the left side of the infield. Despite winning 96 games last year, the Brewers featured the absolute worst third baseman and shortstop in the game. Aramis Ramirez has been a fixture in the division for the last decade with both the Pirates and Cubs, making two all-star teams. He won his first silver slugger last season, after hitting .306/.361/.510 with 26 home runs and 93 RBI for the hapless Cubs in 2011. Meanwhile Alex Gonzalez will take over at shortstop; he has roughly the same plate presence as Yuni Betancourt (horrific), but is a well-regarded fielder at the position and will certainly represent an upgrade. Finally, the Brewers have just received a major shot in the arm as their team leader and reigning NL MVP Ryan Braun has been cleared of all charges regarding a failed drug test last October.

Why they could fail: Losing Prince changes the landscape of this offense – Aramis Ramirez just isn’t going to be able to spell the same level of protection for Braun. Furthermore, there are just too many question marks. Will Mat Gamel be the hitter he was always projected to be, or will he be the hitter he has been in parts of 4 big league seasons? Will Randy Wolf continue to defy his peripherals? Will Greinke ever perform even close to the level he did in 2009? And what’s with this Aoki guy? He’s won 3 batting titles in Japan, but can we expect that to even remotely resemble what he does in the Majors? Lastly – does anyone think the Brewers will go 30-18 in 1-run games next season?

What to watch: Corey Hart is obviously going to be playing every day. That leaves two positions – either CF and RF or 1B and CF up for grabs. I say that because Hart can play 1^st and it isn’t clear that Mat Gamel can perform at the big league level. The Brewers have a solid center field platoon lined up with Nyjer Morgan (who hit over .300 last year) and Carlos Gomez (one of the best defenders in the game). But what about the Japanese batting champion, Aoki? Will Morgan show he can replicate his 2011 performance? All we know for sure is that Hart is playing every day and Gomez is only starting against southpaws and finding his ways into other games as a pinch runner and late-inning defensive replacement. All told, this makes for an incredible log-jam – and that’s before you start including all of Morgan’s alter-ego’s.

2012 Prediction: 87-75, 2^nd place

Pittsburgh Pirates

2011: 72-90, 4th place, 24 GB, Scored 3.77 R/G (14^th in NL), Allowed 4.40 R/G (11^th in NL)

Key Losses: Paul Maholm (SP), Ryan Ludwick (OF), Derrek Lee (1B), Jose Veras (RP)

Key Gains: AJ Burnett (SP), Erik Bedard (SP), Casey McGehee (3B), Rod Barajas (C), Clint Barmes (SS)

Why they could win: Gotta hand it to the Pirates – they made quite the turn-around last year. After winning just 57 games in 2010 (while placing last in both runs scored and runs allowed), the Pirates jumped out as contenders early-on and were in first place as late as July 25^th. They went just 19-43 from that point on, however, all while tacking on a pair of has-been veterans in an effort to put them over the top. There exists a fine young group of talented players on this team, however, led by Andrew McCutchen – who had a break-out first half and is one of the best players in the National League.

Why they might fail: Their first half made for a great story but it can be chalked up to flukiness. A lot of players came back down to Earth in a hurry, most of which were to be expected. All-star Kevin Correia struggled mightily in the 2^nd half, failing to qualify for the ERA title, not that his 4.79 mark would have gotten the job done. No Pittsburgh starter made it to 175 innings, and it’s highly unlikely that AJ Burnett will turn that around. No regular hit over .275 or OPS’d over .830 and only McCutchen was a measurable force of any kind. They’ve got a major talent on their hands in center field, but given the Pirates’ history, he’ll be fulfilling that potential in some place besides Pittsburgh.  

Things to watch: Joel Hanrahan emerged out of nowhere last season to be one of the National League’s premier relievers. However, like most closers, he was criminally mis-managed, as Clint Hurdle saved him only for save situations – including an 18-inning affair against the Braves that ended on a blown call. Has Hurdle learned his lesson? The fans at PNC better hope so.

2012 Prediction: 73-89, 4^th Place

St. Louis Cardinals

2011: World Series Champs, 90-72, 2^nd place, 6 GB, Scored 4.70 R/G (1^st in NL), Allowed 4.27  R/G (9^th in NL)

Key Losses: Albert Pujols (1B), Edwin Jackson (SP), Octavio Dotel (RP)

Key Gains: Carlos Beltran (OF), Adam Wainwright (SP)

Why they could win: The departure of one of the greatest players to ever play the game certainly could spell doom, but GM John Mozeliak did a fantastic job of overcoming that loss by signing future hall-of-famer Carlos Beltran to an affordable 2-year deal, locking up Lance Berkman and Chris Carpenter for 2 years before the season even ended, and bringing back spark-plug Rafael Furcal. They would be better off for 2012 with Albert Pujols, but 10 years at 24 million per season was just too much – and I think Mozeliak made the right call by thinking beyond 2012 (apparently, he doesn’t take Mayans too seriously). Holliday-Berkman-Beltran spell the best heart of the order in this division and the return of Adam Wainwright to the rotation means that the Cardinals have the pitching necessary to take them back to the post-season. They are my pick to win the division.

Why they could fail: They did undergo some changes, that’s for sure. Mike Matheny will take over for Tony LaRussa and the great pitching coach Dave Duncan will not be around for 2012, as he is helping his wife, Jeanine during her bout with cancer. And of course, Albert Pujols is no longer a Cardinal. This could have far-reaching effects beyond the .328/.420/.617, 42 HR, 126 RBI line he averaged in eleven years as a Cardinal. Losing Pujols means everyone gets pitched to differently, it means teams can approach situations differently, and it means that lesser players have to take up the slack. That’s not to hate on Berkman, Holliday, Beltran, or NLCS & World Series MVP David Freese – but there’s excellent ballplayers, and then there are transcendent ballplayers. Pujols was the latter.

What to watch: All eyes will be on Adam Wainwright, who returns this season after losing 2011 to Tommy John surgery. Wainwright placed top-3 in the last two Cy Young ballots, posting 11.9 WAR in that time span. He pitched over 230 innings in both years but is unlikely to reach 200 this season in his recovery. We’ll see how his new arm ligaments hold up.

2011 Prediction: 92-70, 1^st Place

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Dear Mr. Ricketts,

With yet another baseball season having gone by, and again nothing to show for it, this is my final plea.

We as Cubs fans need a change.  For years, we were stuck with the Tribune Company, which looked at the organization as a business. Yes, I agree it is, but it appeared their sole interest in this company was purely monetary. 

Once you and your family came along in 2009, the stories of your love of the team and desire to push them towards a World Series seemed like a dream come true for Cubs fans.  We understood that you needed to sit back and watch the operations of the organization to see what your large moves would be.

Finally, in the middle of this season you let go of General Manager Jim Hendry, and you have set out on the path to finding his replacement.

It has been no secret that you want to build this organization from the ground up.  Build a strong farm system, make smart investments on players worth the large contracts, and use sabermetrics and statistics as a basis for evaluating talent. 

When thinking of potential candidates that completely embody those beliefs, one person stands above the rest: Theo Epstein.  Epstein has already had to deal with many of the same things in his time in Boston that the Cubs are dealing with.  Boston at the time was a team that had not won a World Series in over 80 years, and with his player personnel decisions, Epstein was able to bring a World Series to Boston.

Listen, we all know Theo is not just going to come here for nothing.  Still being under contract with the Red Sox, it’s going to take some investing to bring him in.  Now the Cubs system is not the best, but you do have a player, in the beginning of his prime, that would make the Red Sox forget all about Theo: Starlin Castro.

Sure, Castro batted .307 and had over 200 hits this season, but is one player worth more than a guy who can completely change your organization?  Theo has the ability, as we have seen with Boston, to build a farm system, sign free agents, and put a competitive team on the field, year in and year out.

Now I am not asking you to give up all you’ve got, but we Cubs fans are tired of waiting for next year, and no longer want to be the lovable losers, so do us a favor, and bring in Theo.

Sincerely,

Cubs Nation

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Last week I wrote about my hope for the 2011 Cubs. For the first time in a long time, I look at the Cubs organization and see reasons to be optimistic about their short and long-term future.

Almost immediately after posting that story to Facebook, I got a message from one of my college buddies—and fellow long-suffering Cubs fan—that was, uh, not so optimistic. He stopped short of calling me a total idiot, but did suggest rather strongly that I needed to immediately go outside, turn around three times and spit.

It’s not that he thought I was an idiot for being hopeful, just for saying it publicly.

This is how most Cubs fans are wired. They are like that girl in high school who had her heart broken one too many times and overreacts at even the smallest male indiscretion. Everyone understands, but no one wants to be the next person to cross her.

Logic says I should be more guarded like my college buddy, but for me, hope springs eternal.

They won’t be on anyone’s list of favorites this season, but I think the Cubs can win the NL Central.

Here are five things that will help get the Cubs back on top.

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This is sort of like last minute Christmas shopping. Here is one final tip for you before you have your fantasy baseball league draft. Sorry but I can’t stop you from picking a bunch of stiffs. What I can do is give you a few ideas as to which “sleepers” might be able to help your team in spite of your other draft picks.

There have been a ton of injuries this Spring, so some of these sleepers may get an early start. I have my own draft on Sunday, so I’ll be reading this too when I’m done writing it. I’ve heard the phrase, “maybe you should take your own advice” before, so I just may have to do that.

None of these guys are Rumpelstiltskin sleepers, but they will probably go late in your draft and a few maybe not at all. I listed the teams by division starting with the National League. Without further ado, here they are.

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