Fact: Of the 360 MLB pitchers who started this season, 124, or more than one-third, have had Tommy John surgery.
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Source: Bleacher Report
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Teams throughout the Cincinnati Reds farm system are coming into the final games of the 2013 season. Players have proven just about all they can to this point, but some are still fighting for positions on the Reds’ roster when they expand to 40 players on September 1st.
Certain prospects, including some on this list, already have a spot on the 40-man roster and will make their way to Cincinnati next week. Others used last week and this one as well as a springboard to the Queen City for the playoff stretch.
While there are several players on this list vying for spots on the 40-man, others are inevitably going to be left off in favor of other players. That’s not to say they haven’t had impressive seasons in their own right.
Players like Jesse Winker, Robert Stephenson and Phillip Ervin have been incredible. Unfortunately, they just aren’t ready to take that big of a step.
In any event, it was a busy week in the Reds’ farm system and some players have continued to prove their worth to the organization, while others are falling out of favor quickly.
Here’s the weekly stock report for the team’s top prospects.
All stats come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted and are current through play on Aug. 25, 2013.
Prospect rankings come from the Cincinnati Reds official site, where they were re-ranked at midseason by Jonathan Mayo.
Watch a ballgame or engage in a discussion about the sport, and there’s a good chance you’ll hear the phrase “back of the baseball card” uttered somewhere along the line.
The term is often used to explain that a streaking or slumping player will eventually perform somewhere in line with his career numbers, which can be found—you guessed it—on the back of his baseball card.
It can also be used to convey respect toward a player by saying something like, “The back of Albert Pujols’ baseball card speaks for itself.”
That second application is true: The numbers on the back of a baseball card can tell us a lot about a player. Pick up a Topps or an Upper Deck, flip it over, and—voila—you can find out what a player’s career batting average is, the most RBI he tallied in a single season and how many errors he’s made.
But maybe it’s time to put a new spin on this age-old expression by altering the statistics printed on the back of baseball cards.
With the rise in popularity and accessibility of sabermetrics over the past decade or two, the way the sport is being evaluated has changed—statistics like batting average, RBI and errors have lost some ground to many advanced metrics.
Even though the baseball card industry isn’t necessarily thriving like it once did a generation or two ago, the “back of the baseball card” phrase is still a part of the sport’s lexicon. That’s perfectly fine—it’s a charming little idiom—but in the interest of keeping up with the times, perhaps the numbers, digits and figures that are on the other side of the player’s picture should be…updated.
Obviously, all basic info, such as team, date of birth, weight and height won’t be going anywhere, and there’s probably still enough room to include one or two of those “fun facts.” But otherwise, what follows is a crack at the stats and metrics that should be the ones alluded to whenever someone says “back of the baseball card.”
For Hitters
Games (G): It’s as simple a stat as there is, but it’s helpful to know how much a player actually, you know, plays.
Plate Appearances (PA): Plate appearances instead of at-bats, because many of the rate statistics below actually come from using PA instead of AB, a stat that doesn’t include walks, sacrifice flies and hit-by-pitches.
Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage (BA/OBP/SLG): Because on-base percentage and slugging percentage better indicate how effective a batter is, they need to be presented along with batting average in the ideal “triple-slash” manner.
Runs (R): This stat is still the name of the game.
Doubles/Triples/Home Runs (2B/3B/HR): Similar to the triple-slash stats, it’s helpful to see the counting totals for doubles, triples and homers right alongside each other.
Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing (SB/CS): This way, it’s clear exactly how frequently a player attempts a stolen base—and how frequently he’s successful.
Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP): The first new-age metric listed, BABIP measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits. For context, the league-wide average is usually around .295-.300, and the prevailing thought is that most players’ BABIPs will eventually regress to that mean.
Any player whose BABIP is well above that (i.e. .330 or higher) is likely to eventually see his batting average drop, while any player who is well below that (i.e. .260 or lower) is likely to eventually see his batting average rise.
Walk Percentage/Strikeout Percentage (BB%/K%): In short, the former (BB%) is the percentage of plate appearances in which a player walks, and the latter (K%) is the percentage of plate appearances in which a player strikes out. For context, a BB percent of eight is about average, with anything higher than that above average, while a K percent of about 18-20 is average, with above average being anything below that.
Ultimate Zone Rating/Defensive Runs Saved (UZR/DRS): Move over, errors! UZR includes factors like range, arm and errors to produce a counting metric that puts a run value to defense, where zero is average, anything higher than that is above average (15-20 is elite) and anything lower is below average.
DRS, meanwhile, is based on adding and subtracting the number of times any given play is made (or not made) by a player at a position compared to the average at that position. Like UZR, zero is average, and anything higher is above average (15-20 is elite). (Both UZR and DRS are compiled by Baseball Info Solutions.)
Wins Above Replacement (WAR): An all-encompassing advanced metric, WAR may, in fact, be the best and easiest statistic for measuring and quantifying the value any given player brings to his team based on all of his contributions across all facets of baseball—including hitting, pitching, baserunning, defense, etc. A WAR of 2.0 is about average, with anything higher being above average, and anything 6.0 or better signifying MVP-caliber.
To help visualize the 10 categories above, here’s a sample of what the back of Mike Trout’s baseball card would look like:
You’ll notice that RBI are not listed above. This is not an oversight.
While that statistic could easily enough be included, it’s also a flawed number that is based more on a player’s surrounding lineup (i.e. how often players ahead of him get on base) as well as his ability to drive in runs in such situations (which doesn’t show much year-to-year correlation).
This exercise isn’t all about adding new stats into the back of baseball cards—it’s about eliminating some, too.
For Pitchers
Games/Games Started/Innings Pitched (G/GS/IP): Presenting these three stats in slashed succession helps to quickly and clearly assess whether the pitcher is a starter or reliever and how many innings he throws per outing.
Earned Run Average/Fielding-Independent Pitching (ERA/FIP): This is a mix of old-school and new-school stats displayed adjacently. ERA is a staple stat, but FIP, which is scaled to look like ERA and is based on factors that are under a pitcher’s control (strikeouts, walks, home runs), is a better indicator of actual performance.
A pitcher with an ERA well below his FIP likely has been lucky to an extent, whereas a pitcher has likely been unlucky if his ERA is higher than his FIP.
Walks and Hits Per Innings Pitched (WHIP): This one became popular around the turn of the century, and it’s still a good sign of how many baserunners a pitcher is allowing per inning.
Batting Average Against (BAA): Another stat that has been around for a long time, BAA is basically batting average—the number of hits allowed divided by the number of at-bats—but for pitchers.
Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP): See above for the explanation of the metric. As for context, it’s the opposite for pitchers compared to hitters: A pitcher with a BABIP that is far below league average (i.e. .260 or lower) will see his BAA start to rise as more hits fall in, but a pitcher whose BABIP is far above league average (i.e. .330 or higher) will see his BAA drop eventually.
Strikeout Percentage/Walk Percentage (K%/BB%): While strikeouts per nine (K/9) and walks per nine (BB/9) may be more familiar, K% and BB% are more useful and telling, because they use the total number of batters faced (and not innings pitched) as the denominator when it comes to determining how often a pitcher strikes out or walks the opposition. For context, 18.0 percent is average for a strikeout rate, while eight percent is average for a walk rate.
Home Runs Per Nine (HR/9): Fairly straightforward, this is how many home runs a pitcher surrenders per nine innings. This makes it easier to compare two starters who have a large disparity in the number of innings pitched, or even to compare a starter to a reliever. Anything around 1.0 is average.
Ground-Ball Percentage/Fly-Ball Percentage (GB%/FB%): In recent years, there’s been more of an emphasis on batted-ball data. In general, it’s preferable for pitchers to get more grounders and fewer fly balls (which are more likely to turn into extra-base hits and/or home runs). In general, a GB percent of 45 percent is about average, and the elite ground-ballers are north of 50 percent.
Shutdowns/Meltdowns (SD/MD): Forget saves! Shutdowns and meltdowns are the newest of all the statistics mentioned in this piece, but they need to catch on quickly so saves aren’t the be-all and end-all when it comes to evaluating relievers.
As FanGraphs explains it, SD and MD essentially answer the question: “Did a relief pitcher help or hinder his team’s chances of winning a game?” It’s a little more complicated than that—and requires knowledge of another metric, Win Probability Added (WPA)—but it’s arguably easier to comprehend than the oddly defined save statistic, and it’s a truer measure of reliever effectiveness, since it puts closers on equal footing with all other relievers. Contextually, shutdowns are similar to saves (30-plus is elite).
Wins Above Replacement (WAR): See above for the explanation of and context for the metric.
Again, for the more visual learners, this is how Matt Harvey’s card would appear:
One prominent pitcher statistic was missing. Did you notice?
That’s right: wins.
Sorry, but pitcher wins (and losses) is perhaps the flukiest, flimsiest stat in baseball. There are too many outside factors that can influence whether a pitcher registers a win or loss.
The other metric that would be worthwhile to include for pitchers is left on-base percentage (LOB%), but in the interest of keeping the backs of these revamped baseball cards uniform, let’s stick with an even 10 stats for both hitters and pitchers.
At least for now.
There are already plenty of changes and alterations proposed above—any more, and we might have to suggest the stick of chewing gum be added back into packs of baseball cards.
What statistics belong on the back of baseball cards? State your case in the comments.
All statistics, metrics and definitions come from FanGraphs.
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Numbers never lie. That might be the biggest lie of them all.
No, this is not a call to burn down the data archives and live off the eye test. Our viewing experiences often fool us into thinking Daniel Murphy is an All-Star after watching him rattle off three hits, but the stats are there to pull us back into reality.
But because so many meaningful metrics exist for our pleasure, the old reliables that guided public perception of baseball for years now feel outdated.
Talk show pundits and play-by-play commentators still lean on these antiquated measures. They’re easy, convenient and easily digestible, but they lead us to misinterpret which players are truly worthy of our adoration.
While Chris Sale and Joey Votto fail to receive their full deserved recognition as two of the game’s brightest stars, Chris Tillman and Brandon Phillips are inappropriately drooled over simply for having the good fortune to perform in the ideal environment.
Five of these seven players deceived fans, players and managers into bestowing them with All-Star honors. One of the two left out would probably ride his high batting average to a nod were the rosters selected today.
With rich, righteous numbers on our side, let’s combat the evil, deceptive numbers from tricking us any more.
Note: All statistics, unless otherwise noted, are courtesy of FanGraphs.com.
In Cuban sensation Yasiel Puig’s first 21 games, he hit .420/.453/.716 for an OPS of 1.170. While that window is admittedly an example of choosing arbitrary endpoints, it’s as good as any small sample at getting a point across. We all know that Puig had an insane first month; in his first 30 games, his OPS was 1.155. For the season-to-date, his OPS is still above 1.000—1.024, to be exact.
The 21-game mark was not an accidental choice, however. On June 25, Puig played his 21st game, and I published a second-half projection article in which I called his walk rate “famously low.” At that point, it was 3.7 percent.
Coincidentally also on June 25, Eno Sarris published an article on FanGraphs called “Selling High on Yasiel Puig” in which he expressed some concern about Puig’s absurdly low walk rate.
Sarris was not the only analyst to raise these issues; Zach Stoloff did so on NESN.com, Ray Flowers on BaseballGuys.com and Tristan Cockcroft on ESPN mentioned that “he has averaged just 3.24 pitches per plate appearances” up until the point that article was written (on July 3).
And everyone was correct in raising that concern.
Of the top 50 qualified hitters in baseball (according to FanGraphs’ wOBA), the only hitter with a walk rate below that 3.7 mark is Adam Jones’ 3.1. Only two other batters are even with one full percentage point: Jean Segura (4.2 percent) and Torii Hunter (4.1 percent).
On the other hand, of the 50 worst qualified hitters, five have a walk rate below or equal to 3.7 percent: Alexei Ramirez (3.2), Alcides Escobar (3.3), Jeff Keppinger (3.7), Starlin Castro (3.7) and Salvador Perez (3.7), and another four are at or below Segura’s 4.2: JP Arencibia (3.8), Matt Dominguez (3.8), Erick Aybar (3.8) and Zack Cozart (4.2).
Granted, there is a slight confirmation bias in these numbers—wOBA heavily values on-base percentage, and walk rate is a main component of OBP (along with batting average). But OBP is a part of offensive production, so the point holds: It’s exceedingly difficult to succeed offensively with such a low walk rate.
Things have changed
Although it’s unlikely he heard the criticism, Puig’s walk rate has increased. Since June 26, his walk rate is 8.6 percent, and that has pushed his season rate up to 6.6 percent.
The number of players who succeed at that mark is far larger. Notables such as Adrian Beltre, Carlos Beltran, Allen Craig and Yadier Molina have walk rates below 6.6.
At this point, we don’t really know what Puig’s true walk rate is; he just doesn’t have a long enough career for us to accurately determine it. But the improvements and changes he’s made have been real.
Puig has made tangible adjustments
Below is a table detailing his swing percentage at respective pitches in each month he’s been in the big leagues. As you can see, he has swung at fewer pitches as he has gotten more comfortable in the big leagues.
By itself, swing percentage doesn’t tell us much. Passivity is not the same as patience, and if Puig had been taking strikes just for the sake of taking pitches, then that would not be a good sign.
But, as the following two graphics show, Puig’s decline in swing percentage corresponds to a decline in pitches he’s seeing in the strike zone.
Puig will likely never be known as a patient hitter. Batters who demonstrate his kind of free-swinging mentality don’t change overnight into Joey Votto. But, he doesn’t need to put up a 15% walk rate to be productive. Just these slight increases are enough to take his swing rate from dangerous to acceptable.
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Fact: Alex Rodriguez‘s 211-game suspension is the longest suspension in baseball in 92 years, when eight players were banned for life in 1921 for collaborating with gamblers to throw the 1919 World Series.
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Source: Wikipedia
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Fact: The Dodgers have produced 16 Rookie of the Year award winners, the most in Major League Baseball.
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Source: Sports Trivia Championship
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Fact: The Yankees have 9 players making $15 million or more this season. The rest of the American League teams have 12 combined.
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Source: ESPN Stats & Info
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Things have really come together for the surging Tampa Bay Rays in the past month. With yesterday’s big win in Boston, they’ve won six straight games and a franchise-record 21 of their last 25.
Let’s take a look at how the Rays came from being last place in the AL East to just a half game out of first place and having the third-best record in baseball.
The Pitching
Great starting pitching has propelled the Rays into the great position they’re in right now. Despite Alex Cobb’s absence, David Price’s return to ace form, Chris Archer’s impressive pitching and turnarounds from Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson have the Tampa Bay’s rotation looking like its 2012 self.
Rays starting pitching has delivered a remarkable 17 quality starts in its last 19 games.
Price has been terrific since his return from the disabled list, tossing two complete games while posting a stellar 1.97 ERA and allowing just one walk in four starts (32.0 IP). Moore is 6-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last six starts, and Archer is enjoying a very strong rookie year, posting a 5-2 record with a 2.14 ERA in his last nine outings.
It hasn’t just been the starting pitching that has improved in the Rays’ winning stretch. The bullpen, which was the team’s weak spot earlier this season, has been solid as of late, blowing just one lead during the stretch.
The Offense
When you have consistent production from your offense to go along with excellent pitching, you’re going to win a lot of games. The Rays have done exactly that, putting up an impressive .282/.351/.436 slash line with a 120 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) in July as a team.
Over half of the lineup has produced well offensively during the stretch, but nobody’s been as hot as Desmond Jennings (.378 wOBA in last 30 days) and Luke Scott (.448 wOBA).
The Rays’ offense, which is tied for second in all of baseball by wRC+ (112) has been outstanding all season, so we can expect to see this success from the lineup continue as the season progresses. If Jennings can continue to do such a great job of getting on base at the top of the lineup, this offense could soon emerge as baseball’s best.
The Defense
The Rays’ defense this year has probably been the best in team history, which is a big deal considering that it’s a franchise that prides itself on solid defense. Tampa Bay is second in the American League in UZR (26.9) and second in the MLB in fielding percentage (.990).
During the 25-game stretch, the Rays have committed just five errors. They have possibly the best fielding infield in baseball, as well as some great range in the outfield with Desmond Jennings and Sam Fuld.
The Rays are fielding to their potential, and now that they’re pitching like they can, it’s clear that they’ve really hit their stride here in July.
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As the 2013 MLB regular approaches the All-Star break, the Colorado Rockies are gearing up to make a playoff push in the second half.
Similar to last season, injury has defined this very talented ball club through the majority of the first half. However, all the pieces are beginning to fall back into place for the Rox, who have a legitimate shot to compete in a mediocre NL West.
On Thursday, the Rockies activated Dexter Fowler and Troy Tulowitzki from the disabled list, demoting Tyler Colvin and their promising young talent, Corey Dickerson.
Dickerson had flashes of brilliance during his three weeks in the bigs, but batted just .188 in 39 at-bats.
The addition of Tulowitzki and Fowler should keep the Rockies in contention, but the rest of the team needs to maintain some sort of consistency down the stretch.
Here are the hottest and the coldest Rockies heading into the All-Star break.