Fact: The actual playing time in an MLB game is nine minutes and 55 seconds, despite routinely finishing at around three hours.
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Have you seen what Houston Astros slugger Chris Carter is doing these days?
No, not those 15 homers.
Try those 108 strikeouts.
The 26-year-old has racked up the most swing-and-misses in baseball. By a good amount, too, as Carter is about 10 strikeouts ahead of a handful of hitters in the Swiss-cheese stick department through Friday games.
In fact, Carter is on pace for 219 strikeouts, which means he could whiff his way to the record set by Mark Reynolds, who struck out 223 times in 2009.
Carter could very well top that, uh, “mark,” especially since the last-place Astros are making sure to give him plenty of plate appearances at first base, outfield and designated hitter. Carter has split his playing time at those three spots pretty evenly, which is helping him stay in the lineup every day, despite the holes in his swing.
But it’s not just Carter. The rise of the strikeout is a sport-wide epidemic, and that’s the reason the single-season hitter strikeout record will be the next big one to fall.
What’s also interesting is that, despite the increase in strikeouts across baseball in recent seasons, there’s yet to be a season with more than one 200-strikeout hitter.
That could change soon, too.
Consider the following…
That last point, in particular, is rather incredible: One out of every five batters who steps to the plate is going to be sent back to the dugout, bat in hand.
Is it any wonder, then, that someone, whether it’s Carter or Dan Uggla (99 strikeouts) or Mike Napoli (98) or Jay Bruce (97)—or any of a host of other all-or-nothing types, really—will strike out 224 times?
Or more.
And there may be an even better chance that we see two 200-strikeout “Kampaigns” in the same season for the first time ever.
After all, we haven’t even mentioned yet that the notorious Reynolds has struck out 91 times to this point. Or that other kings of swing-and-miss Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard and Pedro Alvarez have each whiffed 89 times this year, too.
All this, of course, raises the question: Why are strikeouts such an epidemic these days?
Sure, there’s been a mindset shift to the point where whiffs are now considered acceptable, whereas in previous eras, a strikeout was considered an embarrassing no-no. But that’s more anecdotal evidence.
What about cold, hard data?
Well, for starters, pitchers are throwing harder than ever. The league-wide average velocity in 2013, per FanGraphs, is 91.7 miles per hour. That number has trended upward since this sort of thing started being tracked by PITCHf/x in 2007.
There are also more reliever specialists, meaning more righty-righty and lefty-lefty matchups late in games, which results in less frequent contact by a hitter who the opposing team can exploit by using an arm from the same side.
To that same point, baseball decision-makers have gotten smarter over the past decade or so. Thanks to the prevalence of sabermetrics and statistical advancements in front offices, teams are now better-equipped to make sure that they have the edge as often as possible.
And how about these last two?
One, hitters are sporting a 9.2 SwStr%—meaning, the percentage of total pitches a batter swings and misses on—which is the third-highest rate since the stat started being tracked in 2002, per FanGraphs.
And two, pitchers are throwing first-pitch strikes at a historically high rate. In fact, at 60.3 percent, it’s higher than 60 percent for the first time. Ever.
Or, at least, since the data has been tabulated from 2002, again according to FanGraphs.
Basically, it won’t be long before someone strikes out 224 times. Or 225. Or 230.
It could be Carter. It could be Dunn. Heck, it could be Reynolds, breaking his very own mark.
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Talk about a great debut by Zoilo Almonte.
The New York Yankees rookie has now started two games in his major league career and has made pitchers pay by hitting, well, everything.
The switch-hitting outfielder is now 5-for-8 in his career with a home run, three RBI, two walks, two runs scored and a strikeout. He’s currently hitting .625.
Almonte made his debut on Wednesday in the second game of the doubleheader against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He received just one at-bat pinch-hitting for Austin Romine in the ninth inning and grounded out to third.
He then got one at-bat in the first game of the series against the Tampa Bay Rays and recorded a single.
His next two appearances were both as the starting left fielder and No. 6 batter. Over those two games, he’s 4-for-6 and has proven that he deserves to stay at the major league level.
Just a few weeks ago, uber-prospect Yasiel Puig made his debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The young outfielder lit up the San Diego Padres in his first two games, hitting two home runs, driving in five and hitting .625 (5-for-8).
Puig showed a little more pop and drove in a few more runs than Almonte has in his first two starts, but the difference in RBI doesn’t really rest on Almonte’s shoulders. He’d probably drive more runners in if the batters in front of him reached base, but that’s exactly why he was brought up in the first place—the Yankees can’t hit a lick.
Almonte has started in place of Vernon Wells for two straight games, and that will likely continue being the case as long as Almonte keeps hitting the ball. Wells is 7-for-60 in June, and manager Joe Girardi has finally made the decision to give another outfielder a shot.
Almonte has made the most of his appearances so far, and he’ll get plenty more opportunities in the coming weeks. Calling him the second coming of Puig may be unfair, but he’s on a pace very similar to that of the Cuban star.
The Yankees didn’t expect Almonte to be the driving force behind the offensive attack for each of the past two games, but they’ll surely take the production from anywhere they can get it.
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After helping the San Francisco Giants win the 2010 World Series, Juan Uribe signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for three years and $21 million. The deal was panned from the outset, with critics complaining that it was too long and for too much money. There’s even an article from December 2010 in which ESPN’s Jon Weisman explains why Jamey Carroll was better than Uribe.
And for much of his contract, all of that was true. Each of the last two years, Uribe has been terrible. In 2010, he posted a .204/.264/.293 line; in 2011, it was .191/.258/.284. But so far this year, he’s been much better, to the tune of .260/.354/.390.
So what’s changed? Two things: His power has returned, and his walk rate is way up.
The return of his power isn’t that surprising; he was always known as a power-hitting shortstop. During his peak with the White Sox and Giants (ages 24-30), he had only one season in which he hit fewer than 16 home runs. For those seven years, he averaged 22 home runs per 162 games and had a .185 ISO. For his entire career—even factoring in the last two terrible years—his ISO (SLG-AVG, a measure of how many of a player’s hits go for extra bases) is still .167.
This year, his ISO is .130, which is still below his career level and by a significant amount (more than two standard errors). Because he has such a lengthy track record of power, the fact that it has returned after 474 poor plate appearances (in 2011 and 2012)—while not a given because of his age—is not shocking.
Whether or not it will continue is another question. In general, power surges come from increases in home run-to-fly ball rate as an inordinate number of fly balls leave the park. Uribe’s HR/FB rate, though, is 8.8 percent, nearly a full percentage point below his career level of 9.7 percent, and he has only three home runs thus far this year.
He’s also hitting fewer fly balls in general, so it’s not even that the lower HR/FB is masking an increase in volume. He’s hitting more ground balls than he ever has in his career, and ground balls have a better chance of finding holes and going for base hits than fly balls do.
Is this sustainable? Maybe, but we don’t know for sure. Last year, Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus published an article that studied at what point rate statistics stabilize.
If we assume that Uribe’s success is driven from his newfound ability to hit the ball on the ground, then the fact that he has put more than 80 balls in play this year (the sample size Carleton pointed to at which ground ball rate stabilizes) indicates that this new 45% GB rate is indicative of Uribe’s true talent.
However, if we believe that for whatever reason Uribe’s power has simply returned this year, then there we cannot draw any conclusions. The number Carleton pinpoints for the stabilization of ISO is 160 at-bats—a number that Uribe has not yet reached this season.
The other big change in Uribe is his walk rate, and this provides a more definitive look at his success. Uribe is walking in 13.1 percent of his plate appearances in 2013, which is more than double his career rate of 5.8 percent.
Carleton’s study found that walk rate stabilizes at 120 plate appearances, a number that Uribe has already reached this season. This comes with a caveat, though, as Carleton points out in his very next article: This “stabilization point” indicates only that the rates will reflect the current talent level of the player. It does not claim that the player’s talent level will remain the same for any specified length of time.
Therefore, while we can say that over those 120 plate appearances the 13.1 percent walk rate really does reflect Uribe’s skills, it does not guarantee future performance because—to quote Carleton again—“by denominating time per year, we ignore the fact that a baseball player lives a day-to-day life.”
The question I’m attempting to answer here is whether or not Uribe will be able to keep up this walk rate through the rest of the season. The numbers certainly point towards the answer being yes, but perhaps Uribe has found something that works, and he will lose whatever “it” is after taking four days off for the All-Star break.
Or maybe new Dodgers hitting coach Mark McGwire has found a way to get through to Uribe in a way that previous hitting coach Dave Hansen was unable to, and this is a totally legitimate skill change. I don’t know.
What I do know is that Uribe’s sample size this season is large enough to truly indicate a skill change.
I find it difficult to predict what he will do going forward, because the idea that a 33-year-old free-swinger has suddenly become a walk machine—his 13.1 BB% ranks 19th among all hitters with at least 140 plate appearances—seems far-fetched. However, there is at least a good chance that Uribe has discovered a new way to be productive.
With a struggling offense, the Dodgers lineup needs all the help it can get. Uribe has been a useful member, and Dodger fans certainly hope he will be able to continue the strong performance.
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With the Cincinnati Reds being one of the hottest teams in Major League Baseball in the month of May, Joey Votto is one of many players on the team who received excellent grades for the month.
The Reds went 19-8 in the month of May and actually lost a game in the standings to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Most players on the team, especially pitchers, performed extremely well. The staff carried the team throughout the month, and the offense came up with big hits to help out.
Players were graded based on their all-around game. Position players were graded based on all of the major offensive statistics and how they did in the field. Pitchers were evaluated based on their overall numbers and how consistent they were.
There’s no secret that Votto was the best player on the team in May, mainly because he was the best player in the league. What grades did other players receive?
*All stats are courtesy of MLB.com
Despite the constant criticism from fans, Cincinnati Reds pitcher Mike Leake has started the 2013 Major League Baseball season on fire.
Fans were disappointed with his 8-9 record and 4.58 ERA in 2012, but he has put last year behind him.
This was the year that Aroldis Chapman was finally going to make the transition to the rotation, but plans changed and Leake kept his spot. When Tony Cingrani came up and had an electrifying run of starts, fans wanted him to replace Leake in the rotation. Instead, Leake turned his game up.
Since Cingrani arrived in Cincinnati earlier this season, Leake has allowed more than three earned runs only once. In the one game that he allowed four earned runs, he had held the Atlanta Braves to two runs through seven before being the victim of bad luck in the eighth.
During his five starts in May, he led the team with a 1.87 ERA. He went 3-1 in May and went through the best stretch of his career. He went 21 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run before allowing a home run to the final batter of his last start (game recap courtesy of ESPN.com) and 17.1 innings without allowing any runs.
Leake went at least seven innings in three of the starts. He has gone at least seven innings in five of his 10 starts in 2013.
The right-hander got off to a rough start to the season and allowed nine runs in 12 innings through his first two starts. He has allowed 14 runs—12 earned—in his last eight starts.
In a rotation that has every pitcher with an ERA below 3.40, nobody would have guessed who would be leading the starters in ERA. Leake‘s 3.02 ERA is the lowest of anyone on the team with at least 30 innings pitched. Even though Homer Bailey and Mat Latos have been great this year, Leake has allowed fewer earned runs than them.
Leake is currently averaging 6.46 strikeouts per nine innings, which is the best rate of his career. He has also induced 11 double plays this season—nobody else on the team has more than six. He has turned in an average of 16 double plays per season and has never had more than 19, but he is on pace to easily top those numbers.
Fans seem to forget that Leake is the No. 5 starter, although he’d be a No. 3 at worst on just about every other team. Teams should be content if their fifth starter stays around .500 with a decent ERA. Leake has had a winning record in two out of his three full seasons, and he has a career 4.09 ERA.
No. 5 starters aren’t supposed to have the lowest ERA on the team, but that’s exactly what Leake has done this year. It’s not a knock on the rest of the rotation because Leake has just been that good.
After ditching his long hair over the offseason, Leake has rebounded from a disappointing season last year.
Cingrani is back in Louisville and Chapman remains in the bullpen, but Leake is only getting better in the rotation. Although his competitors rely too much on the fastball, Leake mixes up his pitches.
Maybe getting rocked by the San Francisco Giants in Game 4 of the National League Division Series gave him extra motivation entering this season. Maybe he’s just a 25-year-old without a dominating fastball learning how to pitch in the majors.
The former first-round pick is showing exactly how good he can be. If Leake can keep it up, the Reds will be tough to beat in the National League Central.
*All stats are courtesy of ESPN.com
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It’s eight weeks into the minor league season and we‘re already starting to see some of Major League Baseball’s top prospects working their way to the show.
Monday’s recall of top-prospect Jurickson Profar marks the first major league call-up of a top-10 prospect this season. With teams like the Miami Marlins proving to be the furthest thing from contenders, we may see a few more top prospects getting the call in the coming weeks.
However, it’s been rather quiet on the prospect-front this week. The Marlins’ Christian Yelich saw his average slip under .300 and even the red-hot Francisco Lindor’s average took a hit.
It’s been an unusually rough week for the top pitching prospects as well.
All minor league stats are courtesy of MiLB.com.
1. Jurickson Profar, 2B, Texas Rangers
2013 Stats: .222/.200/.222, 1 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, 0 BB (3 G)
Ah, yes, the much anticipated major league arrival of Jurickson Profar is finally here. Nervousness and eagerness have perennially plagued some top prospects’ performance upon their arrival to the majors, and it’s beginning to look like Profar may be falling into that category.
Granted, it has only been three games, but so far Profar is looking uncharacteristically uncomfortable at the dish. For Triple-A Round Rock this season, Profar was able to work deep into counts, fighting off pitches and working a decent amount of walks.
Overall, his early struggles are simply rookie jitters. Profar will improve and the Texas Rangers will have a big decision to make once Ian Kinsler returns from the disabled list.
Stock: Up
2. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
2013 Stats: .317/.351/.480, 17 R, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 5 SB, 6 BB (31 G)
After suffering an ankle injury two weeks ago, things are looking up for Cardinals top-prospect Oscar Taveras. The 20-year-old outfielder has been running agility drills and will likely return to the lineup on Sunday, according to CBSSports.com.
Up until his injury, Taveras was living up to expectations and a major league call-up seemed imminent. In his last 15 at-bats before his injury, Taveras was 7-for-15. If he can pick up right where he left off, he’ll find his way to the Cardinals’ outfield in the next few weeks.
Stock: Hold
3. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
2013 Stats: N/A
There is still no set date for the return of Orioles’ top-pitching prospect Dylan Bundy. Yesterday, the 20-year-old right-hander began testing his full range of pitching motions in his right arm with positive results. That’s good news for the Orioles, whose rotation’s 4.79 ERA currently ranks 25th in baseball.
Bundy received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right arm last month after being diagnosed with right flexor mass tightness in his elbow.
Stock: Hold
4. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
2013 Stats: .242/.333./.388, 25 R, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 3 SB, 23 BB (43 G)
Last week’s struggles have carried over into week eight for Rays’ top-prospect Wil Myers. In his last 40 at-bats, Myers has just seven hits with one homer. His 53 strikeouts on the season is another ugly mark that needs improvement. Still, Myers remains part of a select group of prospects that teeter on the edge between the majors and minors.
With Desmond Jennings struggling at the plate and Ben Zobrists’ positional flexibility, the Rays are keeping the outfield warm for a potential Myers call-up. Nevertheless, if the 22-year-old outfielder continues to lack offensive production, general manager Andrew Friedman won’t hesitate to give Myers more time to develop in Triple-A Durham.
Stock: Down
5. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
2013 Stats: 48.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, .214 AVG, 35 K, 23 BB (9 GS)
Pittsburgh Pirates top-pitching prospect Gerrit Cole has displayed a serious lack of control in 2013, thus far. Cole is walking 2.5 batters a game, while his strikeout totals haven’t been anything impressive. In his last start on Sunday, Cole was tagged for eight earned runs in 5.2 innings.
Cole isn’t in jeopardy of drastically losing his stock this early in the season, but he isn’t where he should be at this point in his minor league career. He has the stuff to be a successful major league middle of the rotation guy if he can fix his command.
With the Pirates’ pitching staff pitching well, don’t expect a call-up any time soon.
Stock: Down
6. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners
2013 Stats: 52.0 IP, 2.77 ERA, .197 AVG, 57 K, 25 BB (9 GS)
After an excellent start to the minor league season for Taijuan Walker, the Mariners’ top-pitching prospect has tailed off a bit over his last few starts. Last Sunday, Walker allowed seven runs (5 earned) in 4.2 innings. Like Cole, one, even two bad starts every so often won’t hurt a young pitching prospect.
Walker’s strikeout totals have been excellent and he’s been showing he has the stuff to compete at a high level. Even with the success, don’t expect Walker in the big leagues until later in the season, if at all.
However, Walker should be promoted from Double-A to Triple-A in the coming months.
Stock: Hold
7. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox
2013 Stats: .276/.353/.423, 28 R, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 4 SB, 19 BB (39 G)
Red Sox top-prospect Xander Bogaerts continues to post consistent numbers in Double-A Portland. This week, Bogaerts is hitting just .222, but has proved clutch knocking in five RBI.
Bogaerts is still a year away from the majors, but he’s shown vast improvement from last year in Single-A at the dish. Even with the low average this week, he’s making solid contact and keeping the strikeouts to a minimum—an area he’s struggled in his young career.
It’s only a matter of time until this guy catches fire and gets promoted to Triple-A. For the remainder of this season, the Red Sox will continue to rely on Jose Iglesias and Stephen Drew for production from the left side of the infield.
Stock: Up
8. Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets
2013 Stats: 48.1 IP, 3.91 ERA, .246 AVG, 49 K, 20 BB (9 GS)
Zack Wheeler has been flaunting his stuff so far this season and lies on the verge of his first major league call-up in the next two weeks. The Mets’ top-pitching prospect is expected to make his debut after two or three more minor league starts, CBSSports.com is reporting.
The Mets, who currently sit at a 17-27 record, have little to lose and everything to gain from promoting Wheeler to the bigs. In his start on Wednesday, Wheeler picked up the win and allowed three earned runs over five innings.
Outside of Jon Niese and the dominant youngster Matt Harvey, the rest of the Mets’ rotation combines for a horrendous 2-15 record. Wheeler has a chance to add some stability to a desperate rotation upon his call-up.
Stock: Up
9. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland
2013 Stats: .324/.393/.453, 26 R, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 11 SB, 19 BB (44 G)
Cleveland top-prospect Francisco Lindor is shaping into one of the premier young talents in the minors. He continues to outhit virtually every one of the top-10 prospects.
Lindor, just 19, is at the very least a year away from the majors. His hot start to the season could have him jumping to Double-A in the coming months. Over his last 10 games, the average is down but remains respectable at .282.
Stock: Hold
10. Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins
2013 Stats: .296/.359/.589, 24 R, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 4 SB, 14 BB (31 G)
Like most hitters on this list, Christian Yelich is having a down week at the plate. The Marlins prospect is just 4-for-22 at the dish after starting the month off red hot. Still, due to the Marlins’ struggles, Yelich could be on his way up to the majors sooner rather than later.
Whether owner Jeffrey Loria wants to admit it or not, this is undoubtedly a rebuilding year for Miami. Like the Astros in Houston, the situation gives prospects like Yelich the perfect opportunity to exhibit their talent at a major league level with little cost to the organization. If he continues hitting, expect Yelich in the majors before the All-Star break.
Stock: Hold
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Ah, to be lucky.
They say it’s preferable to being good.
When it comes to Major League Baseball pitchers, it’s best to be both.
So let’s take a statistical stroll through the land of the lucky—a happy place filled with the starting pitchers who have been fortunate in one way or another so far this season.
FIP
You’ve heard of FIP, yes? That’d be Fielding Independent Pitching, if you haven’t. In short, this metric measures how good a pitcher has been based on the factors he can best control—strikeouts, walks and homers—and it’s scaled to look like ERA.
The chart to the right lists the 20 starting pitchers who have the biggest disparity between their current ERA and their current FIP.
Put another way, these 20 hurlers are outperforming their peripherals (i.e., pitching better than expected based on the numbers).
Let’s take Jeremy Guthrie, for example. As you can see, the Royals right-hander’s ERA is 3.49—plenty respectable, even in today’s pitching-dominated game. But Guthrie’s FIP? Well, that’s a not-very-respectable 5.88—worst overall in baseball.
The reason? Well, there are three:
Put it all together, and Mr. Guthrie has been one extremely lucky pitcher.
While all of the pitchers in the list are benefiting from some form of good fortune or another, this doesn’t mean they’re anywhere near as lucky as Guthrie, and it doesn’t mean their performances to date are bound to come crashing down.
To figure that out, we’ll dig a little deeper and explore some revealing underlying metrics that show who’s really gettin‘ lucky, if you will.
BABIP
BABIP‘s full name, as you well know by now, is Batting Average on Balls in Play.
This is a key component to help determine lucky pitchers—those with extremely low BABIPs—since we can compare a hurler’s BABIP in a given season against his career number, which is what the chart below shows with regard to the 10 arms who have the lowest BABIPs in baseball.
First, it’s worth pointing out that the bottom of the chart indicates the league-average BABIP in 2013 is .292. Typically, this number is in the .295-.300 range, but again, pitchers are ruling the world, so even the league-wide BABIP number is lower than usual.
The third column is the operative one. If a pitcher’s 2013 BABIP is well below his career norm, this is marked in red. If it’s not egregiously lower, that’s yellow. And the green indicates a current BABIP that’s not too far off from career BABIP.
The gist here? BABIPs tend to regress to the league average (.292), while taking an individual pitcher’s career BABIP into account.
So when you see the BABIPs of Travis Wood (.193 BABIP) and Matt Moore (.197 BABIP) compared to the league average (.292) and their career figures (.262 and .275, respectively), the conclusion is that they’ve had more than a little luck when batters make contact against them.
No wonder Wood’s ERA is 2.24, and Moore’s is 2.29.
LOB%
LOB% stands for Left On Base percentage.
This bad boy puts a percentage on the number of runners a pitcher leaves on the bases. The higher the percentage, the luckier the pitcher: A LOB% of 100 would mean that every runner a pitcher put on base didn’t come around to score.
Here are the 10 highest:
The league average this year is 73.1, and any pitcher who strays too far from that is likely to regress.
Since all 10 of the hurlers above are well above the MLB average, the third column—the difference between career LOB% and current LOB%—comes into play.
Similar to the BABIP chart above, red means a very large disparity that is likely to come down, yellow a decent-sized one and green is minor.
Looking at the lone green box, Hisashi Iwakuma of the Mariners appears to have a knack for preventing baserunners from scoring, as his career LOB% is almost 10 percent north of the 2013 league average.
Of course, he also has an incredible 0.87 WHIP, so he’s not letting many runners get on in the first place.
Iwakuma‘s been lucky compared to all other pitchers, but maybe not as lucky as you might think based on his history (which, admittedly, encompasses only a season-and-a-half in the majors).
HR/FB
This one‘s short for Home Runs per Fly Ball rate, and it measures how often a fly ball hit against a pitcher goes over the fence.
Luck comes into play here in that a low HR/FB corresponds to good fortune, because fewer flies are flying far (and gone).
Again, the 10:
The MLB average rate at which fly balls turn into home runs is 11.1 percent—basically one out of every nine goes over the fence.
Let’s check column No. 3. This time, there’s no green box, because no pitcher who’s been fortunate in the percentage of homers-to-flies is all that close to their career rates. In other words, all of them are candidates to see a spike in homers allowed.
To put some some context to this in the form of actual numbers, take Jhoulys Chacin. The Rockies righty has given up 43 fly balls this season—and only a single homer.
That obviously won’t last, which is why Chacin has been lucky, and why his 4.10 ERA will likely rise.
Who’s Been the Luckiest?
Now that we’ve run through FIP, BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB, which starters have been the luckiest so far?
Among those in the top 20 in FIP-ERA differential:
A good argument could be made that all four of those arms have had luck on their side as a big part of their hot starts. Whether their inevitable regressions will be slight or more severe remains to be seen, but there’s something else to point out about those four.
They’ve not only been lucky, they’ve been good.
All statistics from FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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Fact: Major League Baseball teams use about 850,000 balls per season.
Bleacher Report will be bringing sports fans the interesting and engaging Cold Hard Fact of the day, presented by Coors Light.
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This is going to sound awfully familiar, but New York Mets first baseman Ike Davis is marred in an awful slump to start the season. He might be testing the organization’s patience too far this time around.
Through 40 games, Davis is posting an unequivocally abysmal .152/.234/.254 slash line. While the team has waited for him to snap out of his funk, Davis has instead dived deeper into the abyss. He’s notched one hit in his last 33 at-bats, striking out 13 times during that stretch.
Entering the season, Davis figured to serve as the franchise’s premier power bat, but the 26-year-old has earned just four home runs and nine RBI for the “Amazins.” (Can we really still sincerely refer to the Mets as amazing?)
Last season’s stumble out of the gate figured to be a one-time blip stemming from unordinary consequences. Not only was Davis recovering from an ankle injury that sidelined him for nearly the entirety of 2011, but he also came down with valley fever that spring.
Although he was hitting .163/.221/.304 a year ago from today, the Mets stuck with their young gun, correctly counting on him to turn his season around. Will they demonstrate the same patience after another dreadful start?
According to ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin, there is growing support within the front office to demote Davis.
Ike Davis demotion talk intensifying es.pn/14eKL7L #NYM #Mets
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) May 18, 2013
Before deciding Davis’ fate, let’s first examine how we got to this scenario in the first place (again).
April Showers Bring Even More May Showers
The following portion of this article should come with a warning label for those who root for the Mets and/or own Davis in a fantasy baseball league.
Every number you can find on his FanGraphs player page will make you queasy. Beyond his batting average, Davis is sporting a .101 Isolated Power (ISO) rate that is lower than the 5’5″, 173-pound Jose Altuve’s mark. His slugging percentage ranks 30th among qualified first basemen, and yes, there are only 30 Major League Baseball teams.
The most concerning stat of all is his 31.2 percent strikeout rate. When he offered a glimpse of brilliance in his brief stint on the field in 2011, Davis struck out in 20.8 percent of his plate appearances. His 24.1 percent mark from last season is considered way too high.
You know it’s bad when a “Did Ike Davis Strikeout?” Twitter handle pops up.
Yes. But better than a double play.
While one could point to his .195 BABIP as a sign of poor luck, it’s hard to give him a free pass after making the same excuse last year. Sure, anyone needs a few bad breaks to hit well below .200, but his BABIP should be expected to remain low if he continues to operate as a dead-pull hitter with a 43.3 percent ground-ball rate.
In less than two months, Davis has managed to cost the Mets nearly a full win, generating a minus-0.8 WAR as per FanGraphs‘ calculation. His WAR suggests that he is worse than an average replacement player, but do the Mets even have an average replacement player?
Dispersing Davis’ Playing Time
Andrew Brown appeared to be emerging as a replacement option and began to see time at first base in Triple-A. Then he strained his oblique, which likely means Davis has one less candidate hunting for his job.
If the Mets want to replace him with someone from the farm, they could look to Josh Satin or Zach Lutz.
Satin is hitting .313/.425/.500 in Triple-A, producing six homers and 24 RBI through 40 games. Those numbers, however, are coming in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, and the 28-year-old is rarely perceived as a future major league starter.
Also swinging in Triple-A Las Vegas, Lutz is not wowing anyone with a .273/.347/.432 slash line. The 27-year-old is not much more than organizational depth for New York.
No in-house option will garner much excitement among Flushing fans, so would they peruse the open market for alternatives? Now that the Oakland Athletics recently designated Daric Barton for assignment, the Mets may look to him as a stop-gap if they demote Davis, according to the New York Post‘s Joel Sherman.
#Athletics DFAd Barton who is patient/can field 1B, so asked #Mets exec if interest perhaps instead of Ike, and said no talks yet on him.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) May 18, 2013
Barton’s .370 career slugging percentage certainly is not what you want from a first baseman, but Sandy Alderson might be attracted to his .359 on-base percentage spawned by a 14.2 percent walk rate.
But the most sensible solution is to shift Lucas Duda over to first base, a position much more suited for the burly slugger. Duda‘s snail-like speed makes him a liability in the outfield, where he has posted a minus-5.6 ultimate zone rating (UZR) this season.
That, however, makes the murky outfield situation even more of a mess, with no reliable regular to man Citi Field’s spacious terrain. The likes of Rick Ankiel, Mike Baxter, Juan Lagares, Marlon Byrd and Jordany Valdespin, who combined have amassed 10 homers and a 0.4 WAR, would scrap for playing time.
Any mix of those three in the outfield with Duda at first would currently provide more production than a lineup with Davis present, but the difference is minuscule for a team with no real chance of playoff contention.
For demoting Davis to pay off, the move would have to spark a flame under the slumping slugger and bring him back to New York a changed man.
Will a Visit to Minors Yield Major Changes?
There is an underlying notion that sending a player down to the minors is a near-guaranteed fix to his flaws. While it often helps, it’s far from a foregone conclusion.
The idea is that Davis regains his confidence by feasting on inferior Triple-A pitching for a couple weeks, before carrying over that success back to the majors.
But Davis has struggled to combat offspeed pitches, and facing pitchers with little ability to master those pitches will not help Davis improve. It may just lure him into a false sense of security before returning to a traumatizing Clayton Kershaw curveball.
It probably helps if the player embraces the demotion as a challenge, but Davis doesn’t seem to think it’d make much of a difference.
“As far as making me a better hitter, I don’t think it’s going to happen down there,” he said, according to Newsday’s Marc Craig.
Unless the coaches in Triple-A are hoarding some of Michael Jordan’s secret stuff, a trip to the farm is not an automatic fix to all of Davis’ woes.
Do We Still Like Ike?
Essentially, the Mets are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
If they decide that Davis means too much to the franchise to send down, they will have to put up with horrible offensive production from their first baseman.
If they send him down, their offense will still falter as the team continues to cement real estate at fourth place.
For now, their best course of action is to ride out his cold streak as long as they can. He hit .253 with 27 homers last year after May, so there’s hope that he eventually kicks it into gear.
However, collecting one hit through nine games is awfully hard to ignore. If that persists, the Mets will no longer be able to sweep his start under the rug and pretend that everything is fine.
Maybe Matt Harvey can play first base. At .158, the ace actually has a better average.
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