Kuzul

After his May 31 start where he gave up six runs, two homers, and three walks in just over five innings, the over-reactors are in full force. Fortunately his name is not Cole Hamels, or people would be looking to cut him already.

As always when someone is doing worse or better, than normal, people will look to find a reason. In my opinion, when you start hearing a multitude of reasons, the chances are much greater that they really have no clue.

Lee’s current 3.98 ERA is no way indicative of his ability. In fact, I believe you can make a better argument that this year could be his best yet. With an xFIP of 2.63 and SIERA of 2.81, good for fourth and third in baseball, respectively, suggests he’s having a great year. They also beat last year’s career-best marks of 3.06 and 3.03.

The main cause for such a jump is his strikeout rate. Increasing over two batters per nine innings will tend to do that. His increased strikeout rate does not appear to be a fluke, either.

His swinging-strike percentage (9.8 percent) and contact percentage (79.5 percent) would be career bests over a full season.

As far as the primary luck stats go, his BABIP is over 40 points higher than his career norm and his home runs to fly ball ratio is a shade higher than normal.

However, I wanted to make it a priority delving into topics I hear people announce as being his problem, such as his control and release points.

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With each passing month of Detroit Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson‘s career, it becomes ever more apparent that the way he tore the cover off the ball in the first month of his career was not representative of the kind of player he actually is. In fact, he has not come close to the heights he reached in the March/April days of the 2010 season.

Over the first 23 games of his career, Jackson probably did not know what the big deal about being in the Major League was all about; professional baseball, even at the highest level, was incredibly easy.

During that time span, Jackson hit .364/.422/.495 with a .410 wOBA, which is the hitting line for an All-Star and a borderline MVP candidate. Jackson’s elite production was aided by an absolutely unsustainable .530 batting average on balls in play and a 37.5 line drive percentage.

For the season, Jackson hit .755/.748/1.000 with a .757 wOBA on line drives, further providing proof that line drives are the hits that help a batter the most, and he hit an inordinate amount of line drives in March and April of 2010. Since April 2010 ended, however, Jackson has yet to have a month where his line drive percentage was higher than 28.0 percent, so he has not been able to benefit from as many line drives.

Jackson’s opening month of his career was so extremely not indicative of his actual talent that his next-best month, which took place in July, represents a 13.7 percent drop in his batting average (.314), a 15.2 percent decrease in on-base percentage (.358), a 6.9 percent drop in slugging percentage (.461), a 12.4 percent decrease in wOBA (.359), an 18.5 percent decrease in batting average on balls in play (.432), and a 31.5 percent decrease in line drive percentage (25.7 percent).

His other months are an even more precipitous drop off in his hitting ability, as he spent just as much time being a below-average hitter as an above-average one. Last season, the average wOBA for a player was .320; for three months he was an above-average player, and for three months, he was below-average.

Luckily for Jackson, his above-average months outshone his below-average ones, so he still finished the season with a .333 wOBA.

Jackson’s struggles as a hitter continued over the first month of this baseball season, as he hit only .181/.252/.257 with a .232 wOBA. During those 27 contests, Jackson also posted the lowest batting average on balls in play of his career (.265) so it is no wonder it was another mediocre hitting month for Jackson.

With the way in which Jackson’s career path is trending, his biggest struggle will not be trying to duplicate the first 23 games of his career. Instead, the biggest battle he will face is not being a below-average hitter more often than he is an above-average one.

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Domonic Brown has been tearing up the minors once again and his return is inevitable. Still, there’s a large contingent of Phillies fans that have absolutely no faith in him because of his lackluster 70 plate appearances last year, a good portion of which came as a pinch hitter.

They’d rather just sit and hope the trio of Ibanez, Mayberry and Francisco hold the fort down.

In Ibanez’s case I find it hard to believe Brown can be any worse than a .232/.289/.360 line along with terrible defense. Only one player in baseball, Juan Pierre, has put up a worse WAR.

Sure, Brown struggled in his very limited time in the majors last year going .210/.257/.355 and 24 strikeouts. To many, apparently that is enough to label his a bust. Apparently, no other prospect who has started his career off poor has ever amounted to anything.

If you don’t start out like Pujols or Braun, you won’t be good. As we all know, Jeff Francouer and his .432/.439/.827 line his first 82 plate appearances is a bona fide star and future hall of famer.

Many players in the past have proven you can have a bad start to your career and still be a great player.

If it was up to Phillies fans’ criteria, Mike Schmidt would never have deserved to be a starter after hitting under .200 through his first two years and 483 plate appearances. He turned out to be a nice player.

The same goes for Chase Utley, whose .221/.277/.337 start in 94 plate appearances didn’t foretell a future best-in-the-league second baseman. 

With the Padres, Shane Victorino was awful in his first big league season as well—hitting .151/.232/.178 in 83 plate appearances. 

Young guys prospects like Domonic Brown need at bats. That’s the only way they will get better and prove how good they are. You don’t become a top prospect in baseball by accident. He has the athletic ability and skill to prove his shortsighted doubters wrong.

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As we approach the conclusion of a quarter of the MLB season, there is one player who has surprisingly led the Kansas City Royals—Jeff Francoeur.

His bat in the middle of the lineup and his arm coming from the “French Quarter” in Kansas City has created a buzz among the Royals‘ faithful. 

When Dayton Moore decided to sign Francoeur back in December, the reaction among fans was that the GM paid more than he should have for a one-year wonder, especially because that one year was five or six years ago.

After the first month and a half of the season, the right fielder has statistics that are similar to his rookie year when people were calling him the next great player.Fans are wondering is if he can keep this up for the other three quarters of the season.

The stats can spell it both ways.

His isolated power is 12 points better than he has had at any point in his career for a season, which is coming while playing at a fairly big park in Kauffman Stadium with a somewhat small sample size.

Francoeur has a much higher ground-ball to fly-ball ratio than he ever has before. This could mean a couple different things—either his swing is finding gaps better or he is just getting lucky. This is also while his batting average on balls in play is also higher because he is finding the gaps.

Another interesting thing to look at is how he is hitting different kinds of pitches. This season, Francoeur is hitting fastballs better than he ever has before, which could change once pitchers start figuring out that he likes to swing at the pitch.

An alarming fact is that he is swinging more at pitches outside of the zone and less at pitches inside the zone. While interesting, this strategy could quickly backfire when pitchers adjust to this trend.

Another bad trend is that he is striking out more than ever, which could come back to haunt him.

The stat that really jumps off the page at me is that Francoeur has a astronomically high weighted on-base average, which he sits near the top of the league in. The guy is finding a way to get on base, which is a really good thing.

As a fan of the Royals, I would love to see a good guy like Francoeur continue to lead this team this season. If he will or not is still up in the air, and only time will be able to tell what will happen.      

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Jered Weaver‘s Final Line: 9 IP 7 H 0 R 0 ER 1 BB 10 K 1 GB/FB Ratio

Jered Weaver continued his dominant 2011 campaign with his second consecutive complete game and his first shutout of the season against the struggling Oakland A’s lineup. Weaver lowered his ERA to 0.99, and he has struck out 49 batters in 45.2 innings this season.

Weaver had excellent command last night, throwing 78 strikes out of 114 pitches (a 68 percent strike rate). Most importantly, he threw 75 percent of his offspeed pitches for a strike, including all 20 changeups for a strike and eight out of 10 curveballs for a strike. He also established a first-pitch strike to 65 percent of the hitters faced.

Weaver continued to show a slight increase in velocity. He was averaging 90.2 mph on his fastball coming into the start against the A’s compared to his average of 89.9 mph last season. Last night he averaged 90.8 mph on his fastball while maxing out at 93.7 mph a few times early in the start. He recorded four swinging strikes out of 61 fastballs, and he recorded six of his strikeouts with the pitch.

Weaver recorded a swinging strike percentage of 10 percent overall, and his slider induced five swings and misses with three strikeouts. His changeup induced three swings and misses with one strikeout.

Weaver worked into and out of trouble in the later innings, but his ability to consistently throw strikes and allow only one extra-base hit kept the A’s off the scoreboard. His early-season success has not come from any change in approach. The batted ball numbers are not drastically different from last season, but his strand rate currently sits at 90 percent, and he has benefited from a low .220 BABIP. Even with those numbers, his xFIP sits at 2.97.

The rest of the American League should be wary of the combination of Weaver and Dan Haren, but I still don’t think the Angels have enough in the bullpen and on offense to win this division. However, they will be in contention if both of their front-line starters keep pitching at this level, and Weaver is the early front-runner to be the AL Cy Young winner in 2011.

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In his first two years in the Major Leagues, Boston Red Sox OF Jacoby Ellsbury hasn’t been a guy who has flashed much power. In 2008 and 2009, Ellsbury hit a combined 17 home runs and had an ISO (isolated power) of .114 each season. To put that in perspective, his .114 ISO over those two seasons was fourth worst in baseball amongst outfielders, and was worse than Aaron Rowand (.148) and Mark Teahen (.142).

However, in 2011, Ellsbury has been “Hulking” up. In his first 20 games of this season, Ellsbury has already four homers and his ISO is a respectable .206. He has shown more pop than ever before and he is hitting more fly balls than ever before.

Going into Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 45.8 percent of Ellsbury’s at-bats have ended with a fly ball. That’s exactly an 11 percent increase from last season. And if you take his infield fly-ball percentage of 4.5 percent, then a whopping 52 percent of Ellsbury’s at-bats in 2011 have ended with a ball in the air.

There are two schools of thought when it comes to this recent power serge from Ellsbury. There’s the thought that hitting for more power is good for him, as it means he is becoming more of a complete player with the stick. The second thought is well, shouldn’t a guy with his speed focus on hitting line drives and getting on base?

These schools of thought have morphed into whether or not Ellsbury is becoming the next Grady Sizemore, or the next Willie Mays Hayes?

The Sizemore Argument

My buddy Odie and I always compared Ellsbury to Sizemore. Both are white, left-handed hitting center fielders, who showed tremendous speed at an early age. After two years, the speed was certainly there for the Red Sox outfielder (even more than Sizemore), but the power Sizemore developed wasn’t there for Ellsbury.

Sizemore hit 22 home runs in his first full season in the Major Leagues in 2005. However, it was the next year where Sizemore showed that he has legit power.

His fly-ball percentage increased from 31 percent in 2005 to 46.9 percent in 2006, and his ISO went from .195 to .243. His power surge netted him a .906 OPS and 28 HR for the Cleveland Indians.

What I liked about Sizemore, in the early stages of his career, was that while his power increased, all his peripherals stayed intact. He was striking out about the same as the previous season and a half (23.4 percent in ’06 to 22.6 percent in ’04 and ’05), his OBP increased (.375 in 06 to .335 in ’04 and ’05), and he was hitting just as many line drives (19.8 percent in ’06 to 21.8 percent in ’04 and ’05).

When I saw Sizemore early in his career, I certainly said the power increase is good for him and he is becoming the ultimate player. I am not so sure we can say that about Ellsbury just yet.

Which brings us to…

The Mays Hayes Argument

The center fielder for the Indians before Sizemore, and maybe even before Kenny Lofton, was Willie Mays Hayes. In his first season with the Tribe, Hayes was a punch-and-Judy type hitter. He was the ’90s version of Vince Coleman.

He would bunt for a hit, steal second and then steal third. He was an unstoppable force.

Unfortunately, all of Hayes’ accomplishments were lost when the Internet bubble burst in the early-2000s. However, if memory serves me correctly, Hayes stole around 100 bases in his rookie year and didn’t hit a home run.

Then, in his second season, when Hayes arrived to camp, he added more muscle and started launching homers. While Hayes was hitting the long ball more often, all his peripherals suffered.

I fear that Ellsbury maybe suffering the same fate.

While he is hitting the long ball more often, Ellsbury is striking out a ridiculous 27.9 percent of his at-bats. For a guy who has never K’d more than 14.4 percent of the time in any full season, this is alarming.

Ellsbury also was a guy who used to hit the ball on the ground, bunt for hits and like Hayes, cause havoc on the base paths. Now, he is hitting a career-low 37.5 percent ground-balls (down from almost 50 percent the previous seasons). It’s hard to cause havoc on the bases when you are hitting pop ups to right field.

Conclusion

Based on what I have seen so far, Ellsbury is turning into more of Hayes than Sizemore. He has developed a severe uppercut in his swing and appears to be looking to hit home runs.

That’s not his game. Perhaps he should take some advice from the late, great Lou Brown:

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @theghostofmlg

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One of the biggest question marks in the Atlanta Braves lineup before the 2011 season involved who would fill the revolving door position at first base. It was quickly decided that rookie Freddie Freeman would take over at first, but many Braves fans were unsure how the highly touted prospect would fair through an entire season. After a slow start to the season, the rookie was one of several targets of criticism in the cold Atlanta offense.

For Freeman, a trip back to his native California was the perfect remedy for his early season woes. After batting around the .225 mark for the first 15 games of the season, Freeman has seen a surge at the plate batting .375 over the last week and homering in two of his last five outings. The rookie is also showing off his excellent defensive skills at first base. Almost every game has seen at least one impressive in-the-dirt snag by the agile rookie. 

Freeman’s recent success comes at a much needed time for the Braves, who have struggled in almost every offensive category. Run scoring and on-base percentage have been dreadfully low compared to last seasons team. Atlanta can only hope that veterans Dan Uggla and Nate McClouth can also break out of their own cold starts. If Atlanta can maintain their impressive pitching and get the expected production from the cold spots in the order, they are poised for a much more successful month of May.

For in game-updates and breaking MLB news follow me on twitter @MLBeatWriter     

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This week was an eventful one for the Milwaukee Brewers, with several events of interest that Brewers fans took pride in this week. From the Brewers winning two of three games from the Phillies, especially game two against Roy Halladay, a 9-0 shutout, to Ryan Braun’s monster, historic new contract, Brewers fans had plenty to talk about as their team has been battling in a very competitive NL Central, with no team more than 3 games back. 

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Surprisingly the Indians are seventh in baseball in ERA, led by the strong performance of the starting rotation. Arguably Josh Tomlin has been the Indians’ most consistent pitcher this season, behind Justin Masterson, after throwing another quality start against the Royals last night. His ERA currently sits at 2.33, and his WHIP sits at a stunning 0.89.

The question that remains is whether Tomlin has changed his approach and if he can keep pitching at this level. Well, let’s take a look at Tomlin’s approach in 2011 compared to last season.

In 2010 Tomlin pitched to a 4.56 ERA in 72 innings with a 5.30 K/9 and a 2.34 BB/9. Tomlin pitched to an extreme fly-ball rate (50.4 percent), and his ground-ball rate (28.6 percent) was close to his line-drive rate (21.1 percent). He also had a favorable .271 BABIP, showing that Tomlin got some breaks, but not enough to affect his performance. His xFIP of 4.76 indicates that he pitched as well as he could have in 2010 given these factors.

Tomlin has made some improvements this season. This season, even though Tomlin’s velocity has been down a touch and his K/9 rate is down to 5.0, it is worth noting that his swinging-strike percentage has increased to 10.1 percent from 7.9 percent in 2010. Opponents are making less contact (81.9 percent) against Tomlin in 2011 compared to 2010 (92 percent).

Tomlin has also improved his batted ball rates. He has improved his ground-ball numbers to 43 percent and decreased his fly-ball percentage to 35 percent. Those are steps in the right direction for Tomlin, who was victimized by the home run in 2010.

However, there are numbers that indicate Tomlin has benefited from all of the breaks this season. Tomlin’s BABIP is at an unsustainable .182, and his strand rate is above average at 86.5 percent. I was wrong in thinking that he would pitch to an ERA close to 5.00. He has made the necessary adjustments to stay in the league, but he won’t finish the year with an ERA below 4.00.

Tomlin is going to come back to earth, and Indians fans should act accordingly. Remember when Mitch Talbot got off to a great start last season? With that said, I can’t deny the fact that he has helped propel the Indians to a 13-7 record and to first place in the AL Central. Just enjoy it while you can.

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Tony La Russa has gotten away with using Ryan Franklin as the Cardinals‘ closer for two years, and today should be the day he makes a change that is two years overdue. Franklin is nothing more than a replacement level pitcher who has benefited from high strand rate (85.7 percent in 2009), low BABIP (.249 in 2009 and .267 in 2010), and home run-to-fly ball ratios (3.2 percent in 2009 and 8.2 percent in 2010) during his reign as closer.

Franklin has gotten off to an ugly start this season. He has allowed six hits on eight hits, two walks, three home runs and striking out two in 4.2 innings. Franklin’s disastrous start to the 2011 season has nothing to do with diminished stuff, or an undisclosed injury. It comes down to the amount of contact Franklin has pitched to. Franklin’s BABIP this season is at .294, which is four points above the 2010 average.

His 2011 velocity remains at its 2009-10 levels (91.1 mph), but he is only generating the lowest amount of swinging strikes for any closer in baseball at 3.5 percent. In fact, he has the lowest percentage among all closer’s with 110 innings pitched since 2009 at 7.3 percent. Amazingly opponents have been able to make contact on 93 percent of Franklin’s pitches, and 93 percent of the pitches he throws out of the strike zone.     

It is a general rule of thumb that a closer should strikeout opponents at an above average rate, and induce a high amount of swinging strikes. Closers should be able to get out the most difficult situations without allowing a run, and they need to be able to have the ability to strikeout any hitter in these situations. Franklin’s highest profiles blown save,  2009 NLDS Game 2, serves as an example.

Franklin won’t pitch this badly for the rest of the season. His 37.5 percent home run to flyball ratio is unsustainable, but as noted earlier, his BABIP does not inflate his current .364 batting averaged against.

There may not be a great reliever in the Cardinals bullpen, but Boggs, then Motte, deserves a chance to close games. The Cardinals can’t afford to go down this bumpy road any longer.  

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