Kuzul

With the bubbly still flowing onto the carpet in the visitors’ locker room and the Giants reveling in the franchise’s first National League pennant in eight years, I thought it would be interesting to press the rewind button and review how exactly general manager Brian Sabean (pictured) put Team Torture together.

In this chronological history, I mark how every player on the 40-man roster was acquired over the last eight years, not just to illustrate that Rome wasn’t built in a day, but also the situation the franchise faces once this unforgettable season comes to an end.

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As the 2010 season comes to a close, all eyes are now on post-season play.  As pundits debate which team has a chance to go all the way, they will be able to use a boatload of data from the regular 162-game season.  Two series in particular drew my attention, the Cincinnati vs Philadelphia and the New York vs Minnesota games.  Both of these series feature teams from the Eastern and Central divisions of their respective leagues.  In both cases, the central team lost, badly.  I thought to myself if it was possible that these teams were overrated, after all, the central divisions in each league have some of the league’s worst teams. 

I set out to rank the overall strength from top to bottom of each division.  I created my own ranking system based on the division medians of offense, pitching, and defense to create a rating for each category.  I chose to use the median average as opposed to a mean average because a median will not punish or reward any division to strongly for outliers like the Yankees or the Pirates.

 These rankings are based on sabermetric stats that I will describe on each slide.  I understand that there is a good deal of disagreement over the validity of sabermetrics here so I included another metric in my rankings: results.  In fact, I weighted final win-loss record twice as much as any of the other categories.

 The first few slides will discuss the rankings in each category and I don’t expect much disagreement with those slides, I just copied and pasted numbers and calculated a simple average.  But when it comes to the later slides with the Divisional rankings, I welcome comments and criticism.  

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The Yankees are up against Cliff Lee tonight, and everyone seems to have counted them out.

Despite that fact, the Yankees have Andy Pettitte on the mound with the potential to make tonight’s game an instant Yankees classic.

Let’s take a look at this matchup by the numbers:

2010 Numbers
Lee: 28 G, 12-9 record, 212.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP.
Pettitte: 21 G, 11-3 record, 129 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP.

2010 numbers vs. respective teams
Lee vs. Yankees: 3 G, 2-0 record, 23.1 IP, 3.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP.
Pettitte vs. Texas: 1 G, 1-0 record, 8 IP, 2.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP.

Career numbers vs. respective teams
Lee vs. Yankees: 12 G, 6-4 record, 75.1 IP, 4.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP.
Pettitte vs. Texas: 23 G, 11-9 record, 146 IP, 5.24 ERA, 1.57 WHIP.

2010 home/road splits
Lee on road: 15 G, 7-6 record, 112.1 IP, 3.53 ERA, 1.10 WHIP.
Pettitte at home: 12 G, 7-3 record, 69.1 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.31 WHIP.

Career playoff numbers
Lee: 7 G, 6-0 record, 56.1 IP, 1.44 ERA, 0.78 WHIP.
Pettitte: 41 G, 19-9 record, 256 IP, 3.87 ERA, 1.32 WHIP.

Key matchups vs. Lee
Derek Jeter: 15-for-36 (.417), 4 2B, 1 3B, 5 BB, 3 K, 1.071 OPS.
Marcus Thames: 7-for-36 (.194), 2 2B, 3 HR, 0 BB, 15 K, .694 OPS.
Mark Teixeira: 10-for-30 (.333), 5 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K, .994 OPS.
Robinson Cano: 6-for-28 (.214), 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K, .491 OPS.
Nick Swisher: 8-for-25 (.320), 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1.059 OPS.

Key matchups vs. Pettitte
Ian Kinsler: 3-for-14 (.214), 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, .552 OPS.
Nelson Cruz: 1-for-11 (.091), 4 BB, 2 K, .424 OPS.
David Murphy: 4-for-11 (.364), 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1.144 OPS.
Josh Hamilton: 3-for-10 (.300), 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, .900 OPS.
Jeff Francoeur: 5-for-8 (.625), 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1.750 OPS.

Related Stories

• October 18, 2010 — Yankees News: Rotation is Set, Cliff Lee’s Hat, Teixeira’s Thumb, and More
• October 14, 2010 — Sabathia, Lee, Burnett, Pettitte, Hughes?
• June 1, 2010 — Yankees Notes: Pettitte, Jeter, Posada, and Cliff Lee
• October 15, 2010 — Yankees News: Lineup Notes, Dirty Hats, and Heathcott

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This is a feature I’d like to start here on the blog. I not only want to use this blog for commentary, but also as a place where sports fans can learn.

Part of that learning will be history lessons—telling stories about events that shaped sports and the people that made them what they are today. But it also involves knowing the terminology, and some of the most complicated of those are statistics.

This section will help you understand what someone means when they throw out some seemingly random acronym.

WHIP stands for Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched. It is a simple sabermetric statistic that is used to show how effective a pitcher is at keeping the opposing team off the basepaths. It is measured by adding the number of hits and walks and then dividing that total by the number of innings pitched.

Naturally, the lower this number is, the better the pitcher should be at keeping the bases empty—and after all, if the other team can’t reach base, they can’t score runs.

The statistic was probably invented by the man who is credited with inventing fantasy baseball: Dan Okrent. Okrent, who designed the game as a way to have fun with friends, created the statistic by using the Strat-O-Matic baseball game and a newspaper. The statistic was originally called IPRAT (Innings Pitched Ratio) and was later renamed WHIP.

Okrent developed the statistic in 1980, and it didn’t take long for the stat to become integrated as a useful tool for fans and baseball professionals alike.

The stat, however, is not without its flaws. In the Wall Street Journal article that credits Okrent for creating the statistic, the Director of Baseball Operations for the Tampa Bay Rays, Dan Feinstein, notes the team ignores the statistic when evaluating players. He gives the following explanation in the article for the organization’s decision:

“Once a ball is hit, the pitcher has no control over the outcome of the play, with the exception of the home run,” Mr. Feinstein explains. “There are too many factors that determine whether or not that ball will be a hit, including ballpark size and dimension, positioning of the defense and ability of his defenders.”

That said, WHIP is one of the more widely accepted sabermetrics in baseball. While there will never be one single, flawless statistic in sports, in context, there are many useful pieces of data. It is up to us, as humans, to properly apply each statistic properly.

I’ll wrap up this post with a list of the leaders in this statistic. Please note that for single-season data, a minimum of one inning pitched per game is required. For career data, a minimum of 1,000 innings pitched is required.

Lowest Single-Season WHIP: 0.7373, Pedro Martinez (2000)
Lowest Career WHIP: 0.9678, Addie Joss (1902-1910)
Lowest Career WHIP (Active): 1.0035, Mariano Rivera (1995-present)

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As a Giants fan and writer, I just can’t get over what Buster Olney said on Bill Simmons’ MLB Playoff Podcast, which I listened to yesterday.

Basically, I came away with four things:

1.) The Tampa Bay Rays have the best GM in baseball (probably true).

2.) The Red Sox are hurting in terms of the money they owe to contracts next year (true, but unnecessary considering the Red Sox aren’t in the playoffs).

3.) The Mariners made a mistake by taking Justin Smoak from the Rangers instead of Jesus Montero in the Cliff Lee trade (very, very true when you consider Montero’s a catcher).

4.) The Giants have no chance against the Phillies because of their offense (true) and defense.

(You can find the BS Report Podcast between Simmons and Olney here.)

The defense part kills me. Olney remarked to Simmons that the Giants had “one of the worst defenses in baseball.”

For a baseball writer, and one who likes to follow modern trends (e.g. some sabermetrics), I can’t believe Olney would put his foot in his mouth like this.

So, to prove my point over Olney’s, let’s look and compare the Giants  position by position (on UZR and UZR/150 basis) to the Phillies, who apparently are “better” defensively than the Giants.

Begin Slideshow

Last night’s postseason no-hitter by Phillies ace Roy Halladay kind of gets us thinking that maybe people are right when they say that this is the year of the pitcher.  This stands as the sixth no-hitter of the year,  including two perfect games.

There have even been more than just no-hitters and perfect games.  There have been near no-hitters, one-hitters, complete game shutouts, things like that.  Here I am going to recognize some of the games in this season that have hinted that this year may truly be the “year of the pitcher”.

Begin Slideshow

Roy Halladay is the presumptive favorite for National League Cy Young after leading the Philadelphia Phillies to an NL East title. But what about his candidacy for the MVP award?

Baseball pundits generally disqualify starting pitchers from MVP consideration because they only play in a fifth of the games. While this is true, it doesn’t mean that some pitchers aren’t just as valuable as the game’s best hitters.

MVP’s are typically offensive players, but there have been several pitchers to win the award. The last was Dennis Eckersley in 1992, a season in which the righty recorded 51 saves. The last NL pitcher to win the award was Bob Gibson way back in 1968. So can Halladay become the first pitcher in almost two decades to take home the award?

Let’s examine his case.

First, the numbers.

In 2010, Halladay is 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He has thrown 250.2 innings and struck out 219. He has nine complete games, four shutouts and a perfect game. His ERA+ is 166 and his WAR is 6.9.

He’s only made 33 starts so he’s averaging 7.6 innings per start. In other words he’s doing the jobs of both a No. 2 starter and a primary set-up man, at the same time.

To illustrate this let’s try to deconstruct Halladay’s stats using two players for comparison instead of just one. Here are two Atlanta Braves pitchers whose combined numbers closely resemble Halladay’s.

Tommy Hanson: 10-11, 3.33 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 202.1 IP, 182 H, 75 ER, 14 HR, 53 BB, 173 SO

Takashi Saito: 2-3, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 54.0 IP, 41 H, 17 ER, 4 HR, 17 BB, 69 SO

Now, if we combine them, we get Tommy Saito. Let’s compare this fictional pitcher to Halladay

Tommy Saito: 12-14, 3.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 256.1 IP, 223 H, 92 ER, 18 HR, 70 BB, 242 SO

Roy Halladay: 21-10, 2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 250.2 IP, 231 H, 68 ER, 24 HR, 30 BB, 219 SO

Tommy Saito registers a combine ERA+ of 157 to Halladay’s 166, and a WAR of 3.2 to Halladay’s 6.9.

Halladay generally has better numbers than this pitcher, but not by a significant margin. So the question becomes how actually valuable Halladay is to his team?

If both Hanson and Saito were taken off the Braves roster, it is more than likely that Atlanta would struggle to maintain a winning record let alone challenge for a playoff spot. If Halladay suffered an injury that kept him out for the entirety of the 2010 season, where would Philadelphia be now? That’s a question Phillies fans hope they never have to answer.

Of course the fact that Halladay alone does what it takes two good players to do is a testament in itself of his value. His 6.9 WAR trails only Joey Votto (7.3), Albert Pujols (7.3), and Ryan Zimmerman (7.1) in the National League. 

He may not be the MVP this year, but he doesn’t belong very far behind the company of Votto, Pujols and Carlos Gonzalez. Give Doc his due and put him on the ballot. 

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While the Cy Young debate in the American League is getting a lot of attention, the Most Valuable Player award is not. Although it is discussed occasionally, people are not giving it the attention that it deserves.

The front-runner(s) at this point are Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, and Josh Hamilton. All have had incredible seasons, but can also be easily argued against. If you ask me, this debate will come down to the wire, because no one is running away with it.

Robinson Cano: 

Pros: The 27 year-old second baseman has had a season to remember. He is hitting .314, with a career high 28 home runs, 55 walks and 106 runs batted in. He is second in the American League with 193 hits. His cluch stat of 0.77 is the highest of his career, and his time filling in for Alex Rodriguez as the clean-up hitter most likely kept the Yankees in contention. 

Cons: After a break-out first half where he hit .336, Cano has declined throughout the entire season, hitting just .287 in the second half of the season.

Josh Hamilton:

Pros: Hamilton leads all of Major League Baseball with 7.9 wins above replacement. His .359 batting average is also the best in baseball, along with his .447 wOBA. His clutch stat of 0.92 is well above average as well. 

Cons: Josh has played just 131 games this season due to a recent rib cage injury. Although he would not be the first player to win the MVP with few games played (Joe Mauer won it last year with just 135 games played) he has missed the most essential part of the season, thus reducing his value.

Miguel Cabrera:

Pros: Cabrera has the second best batting average in the league at .328. He has 38 home runs, the most for any candidate. His .428 wOBA is not only a career high, but it is the second best in the American League. Cabrera has a high clutch stat as well, at 0.92, the same as Josh Hamilton.

Cons: Cabrera hasn’t played in a meaningful game since early in the season. Like Cano, he has declined as the season has progressed, hitting 41 points lower in the second half compared to the first half. 

Everyone of these players is deserving of the award. However, it will be difficult to vote for any of them, considering their pros and cons are essentially equally weighed. This race is going to come down to sole opinion, because no mathematical or observational data justifies giving the award away to either Cano, Hamilton, or Cabrera. 

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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In most respects, 2010 has not been a great year to be a Mets fan.  The team will finish under .500 for the second straight year, and it now appears that the height of the Wright-Beltran-Reyes era may have come and gone with a disappointing loss in the 2006 NLCS.  Philadelphia won the division again, the Atlanta Braves have re-emerged as a threat now and for the future, and yesterday’s headlines exploded with rumors that the manager and GM were on thin ice.

That’s not to say there haven’t been bright spots. Whatever the outcome of the Mets’ final two games, this season has been a distinct improvement on the punchless 2009 Mets that lost 92 games.  The most obvious factor has been David Wright’s resurgence, but another big reason has been the emergence of 23-year-old Ike Davis as the first baseman of the future.

But what kind of future will that be?  All manner of systems and statistical formulas exist to try to make that prediction, but I thought a bare-bones comparison might be useful.  Using the National Pastime Almanac, I searched for first basemen who have finished the year close to Davis’ stats in at-bats, doubles, homers, RBI, bases on balls, batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, and OPS.  (Of course, Davis’ stats can still change, but probably not remarkably so in two games.) 

I came up with only two close comparisons:

In 1986, Pirate first baseman Sid Bream was 25 years old (he turned 26 in August) and finished very close to Davis’ numbers: four more doubles, three less homers, six more RBI, 13 points lower in on-base (a significant difference), but six points higher in slugging.  Bream had more speed than Davis—hitting more triples and stealing bases in the double-digits—and played in a tougher hitting era, but he was also two to three years older, giving Davis much more time to develop.

Bream went on to enjoy a solid career, starting for the National League Champion Braves in the early 90s (and scoring the winning run on Francisco Cabrera’s NLCS-winning hit), but he didn’t even get to 1,000 base hits in his career.  Presumably, Mets’ fans are hoping for a bit more from Ike Davis.

The other close comparison was Brewers’ first baseman Lyle Overbay in 2005. In his second full season, he finished with one more double than Davis and the same number of doubles and triples.  He got on base more (12 points higher in batting, 13 in OBP), but his stats in all other categories were nearly identical.  Like Davis and Bream, he was a left-handed batter.

Overbay’s a more promising sign for Davis, not only because he remains a productive first baseman (if not a star) to this day but also because he was 28 years old in 2005, his developmental years done.  Davis has much more time to improve.

Since neither comparison seemed to really get at Ike Davis’ potential, I lowered the minimum at-bats for comparable players to 450 and searched only for players between 20 and 25 years of age, and there I found another left-handed batter, who is perhaps the best evidence in the case for Ike Davis having a bright future.

In 1991, the Toronto Blue Jays employed a young first baseman who turned 23 years old that August.  His extra-base hits were comparable to Davis, his runs scored and RBI a little lower, his batting average, on-base, and slugging all within a few points.

His name was John Olerud.  As Mets’ fans may recall, he turned out to be pretty good.

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The New York Yankees clinched another playoff spot on Tuesday night, beating the Toronto Blue Jays 6-1.

The night belonged to ace CC Sabathia, who shut down the heavy hitting Blue Jays bats. Some are tagging the Yankees doomed in the playoffs, as the rotation is having some issues. Still, there are many positives in pinstripes too that tend to get overlooked. 

One fact remains true in MLB: No team gets into the postseason via luck. Each team that plays in October deserves it; this is not the NFL and the Yankees are not the 2009 New York Jets. The season is long and 162 games doesn’t allow for it.

With the 2010 playoff spots almost filled, let’s find at the flaws of each team that has clinched so far.

The Texas Rangers owned the AL West pretty much all season, but the competition was a joke. MVP candidate Josh Hamilton is the bread and butter of the Rangers lineup and the team needs him being at 100 percent healthy. Hamilton has cracked ribs and has admitted he is injured. The Rangers are praying that Hamilton’s two weeks off will get him swinging for October, because if not…adios amigos.

Don’t forget that historically, the Rangers can’t usually hang with the AL East boys (Rays and Yankees) so perfection is needed deep in the heart of Texas.

The Minnesota Twins have been without All-Star first baseman Justin Morneau since July 18. No doubt having Morneau in the playoffs would be ideal, considering his other half Joe Mauer has been flirting with injuries all season. The latest is Mauer will be back behind the plate this Friday, after suffering a jammed knee on September 18. Morneau is practicing with the team but the concussion he suffered will not be resolved this season.

The Tampa Bay Rays‘ best player is third baseman Evan Longoria, who has been resting since the moment the Rays clinched. Skipper Joe Madden is no dummy and knows the Rays need Longoria in October. Also, other than David Price the rest of the Rays starters have been struggling. One other feature that makes the Rays so lethal is stealing bases, which has slowed down quite a bit.

It is tough to find many flaws when talking about the Philadelphia Phillies. All-Star shortstop Jimmy Rollins has been on the DL for the majority of the season, so keep an eye on Rollins. Also, first baseman Ryan Howard and second baseman Chase Utley both spent significant time on the DL too. The Phillies have starting pitcher Cole Hamels and closer Brad Lidge, who have gotten into major funks, AJ Burnett style. Though both seem to be back in form, you never know with players that both perform that badly for such long stretches of time.

The Cincinnati Reds won the NL Central over the powerhouse St. Louis Cardinals. It was a complete team effort, as the bench players came up big when injuries happened, but can this team hold up against teams like the Phillies, Rays, and Yankees. It will be tough for the Reds, as it will take the whole team to win. The NL Central was the Cardinals to lose, not the Reds to win. Also, the Reds were 2-5 against an injured Phillies during the regular season, so a healthy Phillies would be tough for the Reds to defeat.

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