Kuzul

The Indians, in a trade involving two former promising prospects, acquired shortstop turned second basemen turned outfielder Preston Mattingly from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for outfielder Roman Pena. 

The Evansville High School standout, and the son of former Yankees first baseman Don Mattingly, was a surprise selection by the Dodgers in the 2006 draft.  Chosen with the 31st overall selection, the younger Mattingly was tabbed by Baseball America as the 10th overall prospect in a deep Los Angeles farm system prior to the 2007 season. 

Mattingly began his professional career by hitting .290/.322/.403 is 199 plate appearances and stole 12 bases in 15 tries for the Gulf Coast League Dodgers.  He showed promising power for a middle infielder by hitting 12 doubles, three triples, and 1 home run, but struggled mightily with the glove.  In the 30 game GCL cameo, Mattingly committed 10 errors in 99 chances.

Despite the early success Mattingly has often looked overmatched at the plate and in the field since his debut. 

The team promoted the position-less and quickly fading prospect to high-A prior to the ‘09 season despite him hitting .210/.251/.297 and .224/.263/.337 in back-to-back seasons in A-ball.  To no one’s surprise the newly christened left fielder continued to swing a paper thin bat mustering a .238/.296/.350 line. 

This season the Dodgers, running thin on patience, demoted the former first rounder back to rookie ball where he continued to struggle. 

The Los Angeles organization envisioned him as a raw, and a potential middle-of-the-order run producer, but Mattingly has failed to improve his pitch recognition.  The change of scenery away from his father’s organization might allow him to become a useful career minor leaguer or even a fourth big league outfielder.

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If you can understand correlations, you can begin to understand something essential to success in baseball. Why? Because correlations show how one variable affects another variable.

For example, we can see how strikeouts influence runs scored, and we would find that there is no notable correlation (actually true). 

The dictionary describes a correlation as a “mutual relationship.” This relationship can prove that two things affect or do not affect each other. 

In this case, we are going to look at how home runs affect runs scored per game. You would assume that there would be a direct correlation, meaning the more home runs you hit, the more runs you score. 

Looking at data from 2010, just a week away from the end of the season, we find something very interesting.

If we were to plot every team on a graph, showing home runs on the y-axis, and runs scored on the x-axis, what we would see is that home runs do, in fact, affect runs scored. The graph shows a general trend of “up and to the right,” suggesting a positive correlation. (See graph)

However, there is one point that does not fit that trend. For some reason, the team that hit the most home runs did not score the most runs per game. According to our established positive correlation, that point should be considered an outlier. And what do you do when you have an outlier? You investigate it.

As it turns out, the team that is the outlier is the Toronto Blue Jays. 

At first you would assume that the league leader in home runs, Jose Bautista, has something to do with it. After all, if it weren’t for him, the Blue Jays would not have the league lead in home runs, and would fit in on the graph.

But the only way that he could hit that many home runs and not equally affect runs scored would be if he hit a disproportionate amount of home runs without runners on base. However, he hits 46% of his home runs when runners are not on base, much better than the league average of over 57%.

If that is the case, then we need to disregard our initial assumption, and instead go with a more logical approach. Instead of it being player-related, it must be team-related.

As it turns out, the Blue Jays are stacked with hitters that hit a bunch of home runs, while not doing much else.

In all of Major League Baseball in 2010, 22 players have at least 20 home runs, a batting average of at most .270, and a on-base-percentage of no greater than .333. Of those 22 players, four of them are on the Blue Jays. That’s the most on any team in all of baseball.

Our final conclusion is that hitting a lot of home runs does not mean you will help your team. In order to produce an above average amount of runs, a player must be valuable in all areas: home runs, batting average, and on-base-percentage.

For the Blue Jays, it has not helped to have a bunch of home run-friendly players, but it has helped us to identify something very important. It is now up to teams to apply this knowledge to off-season signings. 

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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The Minnesota Twins have won their sixth divisional title. This is Ron Gardenhire‘s sixth title in nine years as the manager of the Twins.

Currently sitting at 92-60, the Twins have the best record in baseball. At 8-2 over the past 10 games, the Twins have been the hottest team in the American League since the All-Star break.

This is the 12th time in Twins history they have exceeded 90 wins. Incredibly for Gardenhire, this is the fifth time he has accomplished it.

The New York Yankees (92-61) and the Tampa Bay Rays (93-61) are right on their heels. 

For the Texas Rangers, currently sitting with 84 wins, they will have to go 6-4 to end the season and join the AL 90-win club. 

Here are some interesting facts and stats from the American League since the current divisional format was put in place in 1994. 

The divisional champions have won an average of 93.1 games.

The AL East champion has the highest average at 95 games.

Compare that to the AL West champion with an average of 91.9, while the AL Central champion averages 91.7.

In the 15 years since the wild card was introduced, the team has come out of the AL East 12 times.

Boston, with only two division titles, has won the wild card seven times, more than any other team in the American League.

At 92.1 wins, the average record of the wild card team exceeds the average for both the West and Central division champions.

The first year of divisional play the season was canceled due to a players’ strike. In the 15 World Series since, the American League representative has come out of the East division 10 times. 

All the more proof that the AL East is one of the best, if not THE best division in baseball.

Only three teams have failed to win a division title since 1994—the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and the Toronto Blue Jays. 

The Tigers made it to the World Series as the wild card in 2006, leaving only the Jays and Royals to be shut out from a divisional playoff series.

The New York Yankees have won the most division titles with 12.

The Cleveland Indians are second with seven, and with their 2010 AL Central title, the Minnesota Twins are third with six.

So what does all of this mean?

Not a whole lot. As with securities, past performance does not guarantee future returns. 

But it probably means whoever aspires to make it to the World Series will have to beat at least one AL East team to get there.  

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The NL West has featured some of the more interesting pennant races in recent memory, mainly centered around the Rockies amazing comebacks in 2007 and 2009 to snag Wild Card spots.

The year 2010 is no different, as the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies are all within two games of each other entering today.

This race has only really become a race in the past month, as for much of the year, the San Diego Padres seemed to be a foregone conclusion to win the NL West. Yet a huge losing streak by the Padres matched by another September surge by the Rockies has made it a race. Here are the relative standings the NL West over the past 30 days.

(Note that the Padres have a straight line because they are the division leader. Thus they are ‘zero games behind the leader’ for that period.)

The surges by both the Giants and Rockies have been amazing, especially since the Rockies were 11 games out 30 days ago.

Day by day and game by game, the Rockies and Giants crept closer (of course, aided by the Padres ten-game losing streak). So I wondered what impact this race and the surges by the Rockies and Giants, who I should note are the leader right now, had on the ticket prices of the NL West teams.

Here are the Average Ticket Prices over that same 30-day span.

This chart is a little more volatile than the leaderboard. The Giants ticket prices are the easiest to explain. Except for a recent slide, which will probably be evened out, the Giants have very much mirrored their team’s performance.

Since September 1st, the Giants have had a five-game turnaround to become the new divison leader.

They have been consistently good since that date and it’s no surprise that same date marked the start of a prolonged increase in ticket prices, which have gone up $15 and remained fairly stable, as the Giants have finished chasing and now passing the Padres.

The Rockies and Padres aren’t as easily explained. San Diego’s prices, after their 10-game losing streak, have been extremely volatile since, while Colorado’s ticket prices barely started increased.

Why did these teams’ performances not affect their ticket prices, like the Giants did? The answer is within the games.

Let’s start with the Padres, the team in free fall, whose prices would fall along with their standing.

What is interesting to note is that the prices of all remaning home games until the end of the season do not reflect how the Padres current standings. Yet they relate more to whom the Padres face.

Excluding their last series against the Cubs, the Phillies and Reds commanded the highest average ticket prices paid by Padres fans. What do both the Phillies and Reds have in common?

They are the leaders in the NL East and Central and are possible playoff opponents for the Padres.

San Diego were up by six games when they faced the Philies, although their losing streak started before then; their series against the Rockies followed when the Padres were up by five games. Yet there is a noticeable difference between in ticket prices for each series.

Padres fans clearly wanted to see a possible playoff preview and were willing to pay for it.

In a tight pennant race, against a division rival, the Padres fans didn’t pay as much as they did to see the Phillies.

San Diego fans seem more interested in watching prospective playoff opponents than games that decide if their team will even make the playoffs.

Now, let’s take a look at the Rockies and see if their games have a similar trend.

The Rockies’ fans are not enamored by the prospect of seeing potential playoff teams, and there is a simple explanation: Colorado probably won’t make the playoffs, especially after facing the Reds.

The Rockies weren’t even that excited to play the Padres, as they had to first beat the Giants to get to the Padres.

What is strange is that the games that command the highest ticket prices are against the Giants and Dodgers—two divisional rivals. Another interesting aspect of the fans’ mindset is how each franchise made the playoffs in recent seasons.

The Rockies have been there twice in the past three years, so their fans might not mind an off year, which shows in their reluctance to pay top dollar for games against playoff-caliber teams, and their willingness to pay for games against divisional opponents who won’t make it (Arizona, LA).

The Padres made the playoffs in 2005, 2006, and lost a one-game playoff in 2007. Their fans are itching for them to return to the postseason, which shows in their willingness to pay for games against playoff-caliber teams, inlcuding matchups with playoff implications.

Finally, there are the Giants fans, who have pretty much followed the rise of their team: paying higher prices as their team gets closer and closer to making the playoffs.

The Giants haven’t made the playoffs since 2004, and haven’t been higher than third since 2005, so it makes sense that their interest in the team (and therefore willingness to pay higher prices) rise and fall with their team’s performance.

Fans aren’t always built the same way. Much of their interest in each game, especially in a 162-game season, is very volatile and depends on their team’s standings.

By looking at the 2010 NL West race, it’s clear that Padres fans are happy to be in good standing, and are experienced enough to start scouting possible opponents for the postseason.

Rockies fans, now used to this late surge, won’t be swayed by the opponent and want to see the divisional rivals; Giants fans are desperate for serious September baseball with playoff implications.

Do you agree with these findings of each teams’ fanbase? Is this trend in other teams? Feel free to share your thoughts. Comment below or chime in on Twitter at @SeatGeek. ‘Till next time.

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After toiling away in anonymity his first two seasons in professional baseball, Chun-Hsiu Chen, 21, has posted numbers guaranteed to vault his status among the game’s top catching prospects. 

The Indians signed the Taiwanese backstop in September 2007 for $300,000 after he  grabbed headlines the previous season during the World Junior Championships. 

Chen, a dominant force in the batter’s box and on the mound, hit .417, slugged .500, and his fastball clocked as high as 92 mph. 

The team sent the young backstop to the Gulf Coast League, where he had a modest showing as a hitter, .261/.336/.409, and as a defender.  In 31 games behind the plate, Chen threw out 30  percent of base runners and committed four errors. 

Chen was promoted to low-A Mahoning Valley the following season and promptly struggled in most facets of the game. 

He often looked overmatched at the plate and the lack of experience on defense became apparent.  In 231 plate appearances, Chen hit a miserable .215/.328/.308 and committed seven errors and allowed nine passed balls.

The highlight of an otherwise lost season was his ability to rely on one aspect of his God-given talent: his arm.  The former high school ace threw out an incredible 42 percent (22 of 53) base runners during the season. 

Team decision makers, in one of the most underrated moves of the 2009-10 offseason, astutely promoted him to Lake County for the following season despite his obvious struggles. 

Chen did not disappoint.

In 240 plate appearances, he battered and abused A-ball pitchers on his way to hitting .312/.368/.518.  Power, his most attractive tool in high school, began to develop. 

Scouts, as a precursor to home runs, look for doubles in young hitters, and Chen morphed into an extra base machine. He hit 21 doubles, 3 triples, and 6 homers for an isolate power (ISO.) of .206. 

He continued to hit after a promotion and finished with a line of .320/.442/.523 in high-A Kinston. 

Below are Chen’s stats for the 2010 season.

Tm	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
Lake County	240	218	27	68	21	3	6	39	1	17	38	0.312	0.368	0.518	0.887	113
Kinston	217	172	31	55	17	0	6	30	4	38	36	0.32	0.442	0.523	0.966	90
Combined	457	390	58	123	38	3	12	69	5	55	74	0.315	0.404	0.521	0.924	203

The Indians already have their catcher of future in Carlos Santana but, Chen’s continued development could create a problem team officials would love: two middle of the order, power-hitting catchers. 

Prior to the season, Chun-Hsiu Chen did not even make Baseball America’s top 30 Indians prospects but, expect that change.  Chen will vault up the team’s list and could crack the top 5, or possibly top 3, prospects. 

Sunnier days are coming for Cleveland fans, and Chun-Hsiu Chen is just another reason for optimism. 

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He’s baaaacccckkkkkkk!!!!

Looking at Tim Lincecum‘s three starts in September, one would think he is back to Cy Young form. After a horrible 0-5 August record, Lincecum has responded by winning each of his three starts in September. His ERA in August was an abysmal 7.82, compared to 2.09 in September. 

So he’s back on track right?

Well, hold it right there. Sure his stats are back to ace-like form, but how do we know he has really changed?

It’s all in the mechanics. Tim Lincecum relies on his hips for power. The reason he is able to launch a fastball in the low- to mid-90s out of such a small frame is due to the mechanics of his extra long stride and the way his hips open up after release.

He stays balanced throughout his whole motion, which is hard to believe because of how violent of an action it is.

So even if stats don’t lie, there has to be a way where one can find out if Tim Lincecum is truly back in business and not just getting lucky.

Well, as you all know, Lincecum’s velocity has been dropped slightly this year, even though he has shown signs of getting it back up at different points. Since he gets all of his power from his hips, he probably concluded that maybe he wasn’t using them enough. This is an assumption and an attempt to explain the difference in his mechanics I will explain shortly. 

Lincecum might not have even known specifically what he was doing wrong with his mechanics, but he did know he was not getting the results he is so used to getting. 

So what was wrong with him?

He had been overturning before he released the ball. His hips opened up too soon and he did not step straight towards home plate. This caused him to pull the ball slightly and miss location very often. He tried changing numerous aspects of his delivery during his slump, including lifting his hands over his head. This only led to a dragging motion in his arm and although it led to successfully results in the short run, it was not good for his mechanics.

Also, fatigue may have been a factor, but it hasn’t looked like it in his past three starts. This leads me to believe it was mostly his mechanics and lack of confidence that led to such an awful August. 

Lincecum’s problems usually occurred when he tried to muscle the ball to the plate. This led to an unreal amount of walks that have not really been part of Tim’s game. 

How do we know for sure he fixed his problems? Watch the difference in his delivery from the time he faced the Diamondbacks in San Francisco and gave up four runs wearing his high socks, compared to his most recent start against the D-backs 10 days ago.

In his first start, it is noticeable that he is opening up and trying to sling the ball to the plate. In his second start, you can see that he is staying closed longer, and stepping more towards the plate, allowing him to drive the ball, keeping his walk rate down, and his velocity around 93.

Yes folks, Tim Lincecum has regained his form. There is no doubting it, and all signs point to yes. So unless he starts leaving balls over the plate or begins opening up early again, he should be able to lead the San Francisco Giants and their pitching staff to the playoffs. 

And NO ONE wants to face the Giants in a short series because of their rotation. It is now enjoyable to watch Lincecum pitch, and when his turn in the rotation comes around there is a good chance he will deliver a W—just like old times. 

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When you glance at Derek Jeter’s .261 batting average in 2010, the first thing you ask yourself is: Do I need glasses.

Why?

Because, barring an extremely unprecedented surge, Jeter is on pace to hit below .300 for the first time  since 2002. More concerning, it will be his lowest batting average since 1995, his first season, when he played just 15 games.

So what is it? What is happening to the Captain?

It isn’t hard to find the problem. Jeter’s line drive ratio is at a career low, his ground ball ratio is at a career high, and his fly ball ratio is at a career low.

Clearly, Jeter is all out of whack.

His home run per fly ball ratio is the closet to his career average of all his statistics. If he gets good wood on the ball, he still can hit it hard. The problem, though, is that he isn’t getting good wood on the ball.

Why is that?

He isn’t being pitched any differently. He sees every pitch nearly the same amount of times as he had in the past. He also doesn’t swing anymore than he had in the past.

A common argument is that Jeter cannot handle certain pitches anymore.

However, Jeter’s w values, a way of measuring a players success against a certain type of pitch, are equally down for every pitch. 

This suggests he is having problems with all pitches.

What we do find in 2010 that differs from his past is that Jeter swings at a much higher percentage of pitches outside the strike-zone. To be exact, 28.4% of the pitches he swings at are out of the strike-zone, well above his career average of 20.4%, and a career high by far.

The ability to explain Jeter’s decline is very good news for Yankee fans.

If we could not pinpoint the problem, it would mean Jeter was simply losing his ability to play baseball. But his problem is not a physical problem (age), it is a mental problem.

For some reason, Jeter has lost the ability to identify a strike.

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman, and check out more at jesskcoleman.com.

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The New York Yankees have looked much better than this. Even if the Yankees‘ record gets them to the playoffs, losing six of seven games is not going to cut it.

It used to be the Yankees’ AL East division to lose, but now the Yankees are struggling.

Questions need to be answered, and tonight against Tampa Bay, the Yankees will start to give those answers.

What answers would Yankee fans like to see? Here are five questions that come to mind: 

Is This Just a Normal Team Slump or Not?

If it was June or even the beginning of August, a slump would not be such a concern for any team in a division race. But it is mid-September with 20 games remaining, and the Yankees have no cushion if they want to win the AL East. 

Can the Bats Start Doing Their Jobs?

Striking out is not Yankee-like, as the team’s M.O. at the plate is to drive up pitching counts and draw walks. Derek Jeter is not helping the team right now, except for Sunday against Cliff Lee when he displayed signature Jeter-like form. This has to stick for both the Captain and the team. 

How Hurt are Alex Rodriguez, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner?

Ask the Yankees certain questions, like about innings limits or injuries, and the answer usually leaves you pondering the truth. For example, Brett Gardner is getting an MRI on his wrist, but it is nothing to be concerned about, which was the answer to why Gardner left mid-game on Sunday.

A-Rod just returned from the 15-day DL, and obviously he is not feeling his best still. Why did A-Rod get taken off in the first place? Would A-Rod rather take extra rest than return too soon?

Add Swisher’s recurring injury and those are three of the Yankees who have been critical to the team’s success this season.

What Is the Biggest Problem?

Looking at 2009 stats, the Bombers were caught stealing 28 times in 111 tries. In 2010 with a total of 90 steals, the Bombers have been tagged out 27 times. This number might not make your mouth drop, but it’s the extra pressures like the above fact that is hurting the Yankees.

Home runs are down this season to 174 from the team’s total of 224 in 2009. Overall hits finished at 1,604 last season, while in 2010 they currently stand at 1,311.

Yes, there are 20 games remaining but the team is not hitting 50 home runs and getting over 300 hits. If the team was winning with these numbers, it wouldn’t matter—but they aren’t—so the slight declines become a bigger issue overall. 

When is Andy Pettitte’s Exact Date of Return?

There is no denying that Pettitte’s absence has hurt big time. There were too many rumors last month, generating excitement that the Yankees southpaw was on his way back. It feels like forever, but that’s because it has been.

Pettitte can really help the starting rotation, taking some pressure off CC Sabathia. A.J. Burnett and Javy Vazquez would get some breathing room, which could help them both mentally because Pettitte could alleviate the desperation, even if just slightly.

PLEASE VISIT LADY LOVES PINSTRIPES……

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Picture this: a game lasts over four hours, uses 41 players, features 374 pitches, has two blown saves, and ends in a walk-off hit by pitch—by Mariano Rivera.

Welcome to Yankees–Rangers, September 11 (and part of 12), 2010

It was a peculiar game to say the least, and it was no surprise that such an odd game was perpetuated by a series of unorthodox managerial moves. This game featured moves as simple as a pinch hitter, to as questionable as a 3-0 sac bunt.

Back up. A 3-0 sac bunt? In the top of the ninth inning, already leading by one run, the Yankees had a runner on second and nobody out. Eager to get the run in, Yankees manager Joe Girardi called for a sac bunt, even after the count had been worked to 3-0.

As if this doesn’t sound ridiculous enough, it should be pointed out that it was the first sac bunt on a 3-0 count in all of Major League Baseball this season. 

Why is it such a ridiculous thing to do, and thus so rare? To start, the league combined has a .413 batting average and a .893 slugging percentage on a 3-0 count, so sac bunting becomes just a waste.

Furthermore, if you look deeper, sac bunting with a runner on second and nobody out not only destroys the at-bat, but also destroys the inning.

Based on run expectancy data collected from 1999-2002, the Yankees had a run expectancy of 1.189 when they had a runner on second and nobody out. After the sac bunt, now with a runner on third and one out, their run expectancy actually decreased to .983.

So, what Girardi thought was helping his team actually sunk them in two ways: he destroyed a great chance to get a hit with a 3-0 count, and he destroyed a great chance to score with a runner on second and nobody out.

Thus, the Yankees failed to score and lost the game in the bottom of the ninth inning. 

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com, follow me on Twitter and Digg.

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It took a little over three years, but Trevor Hoffman reached yet another plateau in his already Hall of Fame career on Tuesday: his 600th career save.

On June 6, 2007, Hoffman recorded his 500th career save as the San Diego Padres defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers. That save put Hoffman into uncharted territory. Never before had any man recorded 500 saves.

Though many believe that Mariano Rivera is the best closer of all time, Hoffman will always be the man who got to 500 before anyone else.

Well, after Tuesday, he will also be known as the man who got to 600 saves before anyone as well. Hoffman, now closing games (albeit part-time) with the Milwaukee Brewers, recorded his 600th career save against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Arguments have been made that the save is an “overrated stat.” Granted, the save is a relatively new statistic to the game of baseball—it was introduced to the game during the late ’60s.

To put it into perspective, Lee Smith ended his career with 478 saves, good for third all-time. But in 18 seasons, which is how long Hoffman’s career has been, Smith threw roughly 200 more innings than Hoffman.

In 1991, Smith led all of baseball with 47 saves. In that season, he logged 73 innings pitched. In 1998, Hoffman led all of baseball with 53 saves, and he too pitched 73 innings.

But regardless of how “meaningless” the stat may be, Hoffman has reached a milestone; a benchmark that no one in the long and glorious history of baseball has ever reached. That feat alone should already cause Cooperstown to begin clearing room for his plaque.

Of his now 600 saves, the majority came while he was a member of the Padres. While playing in San Diego, Hoffman closed out 552 games. He began his career as a Florida Marlin and saved two games for them. Hoffman has saved 46 games since joining the Brew Crew prior to the 2009 season.

Now that he is almost 43-years old, Hoffman has seen his productivity decline and is now sharing the closing duties with the up-and-coming John Axford. 

Hoffman is the all-time leader in saves. He has cleared hurdle after hurdle and has built himself quite a career. Of course, he is still missing that mystical World Series ring.

So will this be his last season? Is recording 600 saves enough for the right-hander? Or does he have the hunger to keep going?

Either way, rest assured that Hoffman will soon be joining Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Goose Gossage, and Bruce Sutter as closers enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

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