Kuzul

I can hear it now all over Braves Nation, “Omar Infante had better be starting every day next season.” And while he has had a truly outstanding season, do not expect it to continue next year.

Now that I have 75 percent of Braves Nation ready to kill me, maybe I should explain myself.

Let me start off by saying that I have the utmost respect for Omar and his abilities as a player. I also believe he is the best super utility player in Major League Baseball.

Now on to my reasoning to why he should remain in that role.

First off, this season Infante has enjoyed a ridiculously high BABIP at .381. If his BABIP normalizes to his career average and the much more attainable .315, you can expect him to hit about .273 next season.

Now, a lot of people will say that this is way too simplistic of a way to show his potential drop-off, and I agree completely. Most fans agree that if Infante can give us a .300 batting average next season, they would be very happy with his production and this is where I completely disagree with them.

Let’s assume Omar plays every day next season and accumulates 500 at-bats (not total plate apperances, just at-bats). Based on a 500 at-bat season, he would have a total of 150 hits.

Now, this season he has 126 hits and a grand total of 22 extra-base hits (13 doubles, two triples, seven home runs). Now let’s average those percentages over 150 hits:

Doubles—(126/13)*150 = 15 doubles

Triples—(126/2)*150 = 2 triples

Home Runs—(126/7)*150 = 8 home runs

So if you expect a .300 average from Infante and he kept the same ratios of hits to extra-base hits, you can expect him to hit 15 doubles, two triples, and eight home runs.

Now, let’s turn that line into a slugging percentage. Total bases = 1B + (2*2B) + (3*3B) + (4*HR)

TB = 125 + 30 + 6 + 32, so that’s 193 total bases. Now we divide that by his total AB. 193/500 = .386 SLG %.

Now let’s also assume that he keeps the same batting average to OBP difference which currently stands at .036. This would make his slash line look like this:

.300/.336/.386/.722

That is a horrible line for an everyday player and it proves that looking at batting average alone is a terrible way of evaluating a player.

Now, by adding Infante to an everyday role next season, not only do you weaken the starting lineup, but you then significantly weaken the bench because there is not a utility player out there that can match Omar’s production.

I love Omar Infante and what he brings to this team, and he has been great this season. I have no desire for him to be moved from the starting lineup this season.

Unfortunately, Omar’s OBP and OPS are completely driven by his batting average, meaning that if he doesn’t hit .330-plus, he has no value as an every day player.

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To say the least, 2010 has been a season of inconsistency for A.J. Burnett. After his first start of the season, his ERA was 5.40. By his sixth start, it was 1.99. 10 starts later, it was 5.25. Now, after his 27th start, his ERA stands at 5.15, and unless he can bring that down over a full point (unlikely), it will be the highest of his career.

This is nothing new for Burnett. Throughout his entire career, he has been hit or miss. On any given day, he could throw a no-hitter or give up 10 runs in four innings. In fact, two starts after his no-hitter in 2001, he gave up seven runs in four innings.

So what is it? Nobody doubts that he has great ability, but why has he never been able to put it together? 

Those are the questions that are brewing in New York. In Toronto, nobody cared enough to answer these questions, but in the midst of a pennant race, the Yankees need to work out Burnett’s issues.

To answer these questions, let’s look at data for Burnett’s best start this season, and his worst start.

Using game score as a meter, it turns out that Burnett’s best start was April 29 in Baltimore, when he gave up no runs on three hits in eight innings. His worst start would be August 27 in Chicago when he pitched just three and a third innings, giving up eight earned runs.

First off, we should establish that it is just a coincidence that his best start was early in the season and his worst start was later in the season. His game-by-game results show no correlation to time whatsoever.

Furthermore, if you look at his home versus away statistics, you will find that he is better in home games (you will find the same trend with the first half versus second half), but this does not explain the complete inconsistency that is present both home and away, and first and second half.

We have established that it is not a matter of setting or time, so our only choice is to go back and examine the data of Burnett’s best start and his worst start.

What you find first is that velocity is not the issue. The average speed on his fastball in his best start was less than a mile per hour slower than his worst start. The average speeds on his sinker, change-up, and knuckle-curve were all virtually the same as well.

What about pitch selection? He threw the same percentage of sinkers and change-ups in his best and worst starts. However, he threw about six percent more fastballs in his best start, and about six percent less knuckle-curves.

As it appears, when Burnett gets in trouble, he stops throwing fastballs and starts throwing more knuckle-curves.

This is a bit puzzling. When you look at the average break on Burnett’s pitches, and compare them in his best and worst starts, you find that his knuckle-curve is the pitch he had trouble with.

In Burnett’s best start, the average vertical break on his knuckle-curve was minus-5.07, as opposed to just minus-1.53 in his worst start. The average break on his fastball was different in his best and worst starts, but not nearly to the extent of his knuckle-curve.

The reason this is puzzling is because, like we said before, Burnett throws more knuckle-curves when he gets in trouble. But the knuckle-curve is the pitch that he has trouble with, so why does he throw it more often?

Well, if you have ever heard Burnett speak, he doesn’t sound like the smartest guy in the world, and not attending college definitely took a hit on his knowledge as well. 

Burnett’s inconsistency isn’t very difficult to decipher. It is a product of not paying attention, and not properly analyzing his own performance. Now, it should be noted that this is just two starts that we are looking at, but something as glaring as this data should not go unnoticed.

People always say that Burnett always displays talent, but never seems to put it together. They are right, now they just need to realize something very simple.

E-mail me at jess@jesskcoleman.com or follow me on Twitter @jesskcoleman.

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It’s one of the most amazing stories of the 2010 baseball season. Omar Infante, a career utility player, has stepped into a starting role with the Atlanta Braves and is threatening to become one of the most unlikely batting title winners in baseball history.

On July 30th, the Braves All-Star second baseman, Martin Prado, broke his finger sliding into home plate.   Prado landed on the 15-day DL and Infante was inserted into the starting lineup at second base.

Since that day Infante has hit .363 with a .400 on-base and a .513 slugging percentage. 

He’s scored 29 runs, hit five home runs and thrown in three stolen bases to boot.  Since July 29th, he’s had 23 multi-hit games and at one point, hit safely in 14 straight. 

On August 10th, Chipper Jones was lost for the season when he tore his ACL making a dazzling play at third base.  The injury assured that Infante would remain at second base and Prado would play third upon his return. 

Infante has been an absolute life-saver for the Braves, playing in every game since that July 29th date.  In all but two of those games he’s batted lead-off and helped Atlanta maintain their NL East lead.   

Even before Prado and Chipper’s injury, Infante was a valuable asset for the Braves.  In the 73 prior games, Infante started 40 of them, playing five different positions: 2B, SS, 3B, LF and RF.  He hit .330 in those games, including a .429 mark in July.

With Infante‘s insertion into the starting role and his continued prowess at the plate, his chances of winning the batting title have become a distinct possibility.

In order to qualify for the batting title, a player must record 502 plate appearances.  Infante is presently hitting a NL best .343 and  stands at 393 PAs with 25 games remaining on the Braves schedule.  If he continues his pace of 4.6 plate appearances per game, achieved since he became a full-time starter, Infante will finish with 512 plate appearances.  He’ll obviously have to play every game to make this mark, but even if he doesn’t he can still win the batting title.

How you ask? 

Well it’s simple.  If Infante finishes with say, 490 appearances, Major League Baseball will add 12 at-bats to his total and recalculate his batting average. These at-bats are considered hitless ones.

Tony Gwynn won a batting title in this manner in 1996 when he recorded 498 plate appearances and 451 at-bats.  His average of .364 was reduced to .359 and he still led the National League. 

Prior to this season, Infante was only a .264 career hitter (though he did hit .305 last year).  The important fact to remember with Infante though, is that he is only 28 years old.  Players often reach their peak around that age, a fact that’s even more true for Infante, who’s body has less wear than others because of his reduced role in prior seasons. 

Carlos Gonzalez, with an assist from Coors field, is Infante’s main competition.  He’s hitting .337 to Infante’s .343.  Joey Votto is a distant third at .321. 

It’s difficult to determine who the most unlikely batting title winner in NL history is. 

Al Oliver, a name few know, won the title with Montreal in 1982.  But he hit over .300 eleven times in his career.  Another Atlanta Brave, Ralph Garr won the title in 1974 (Garr was also 28 when he accomplished the feat).  Rico Carty also did it for the Braves in 1970.  Very few people outside of Atlanta, remember these names. 

In the American League, Bill Mueller hit .326 in 2003.  He was a .286 career hitter before that.   Mueller was also out of baseball three seasons later. 

The only distant comparison for Infante is Snuffy Stirnweiss.  Stirnweiss played for the Yankees in 1945 when baseball was severely depleted by the departure of players to World War II.  Stirnweiss hit .309 in 1945. He never hit above .256 again and hit only .268 for his career. 

With Infante‘s hitting showing no signs of slowing down and a decent shot at 502 plate appearances, he has a very real chance to become one of the most unlikely batting champions in baseball history 

I’d love to hear some readers thoughts about whether or not Infante might be the most unlikely batting champ in the long history of baseball and whether or not he has a legitimate chance at the feat.

You can view the history of NL and AL batting champs, going all the way back to when Levi Meyerle hit .492 in 1871, here. 

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The Toronto Blue Jays shut Brandon Morrow down after Friday’s start due to the number of innings he had thrown.  While his season didn’t end on the brightest note (3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K), he leaves behind a stat line that shows off all the promise we’ve heard so much about:

10 Wins
146.1 Innings
4.49 ERA
1.38 WHIP
178 Strikeouts (10.95 K/9)
66 Walks (4.06 BB/9)
.348 BABIP

You can see right off the bat that his ERA and WHIP were both affected by poor luck.  The BABIP is clearly inflated, while his strand rate was also relatively unlucky at 69.0 percent.  There are fewer then 30 pitchers who qualify for the ERA title who have posted a strand rate below 70 percent at this point, so while it isn’t incredibly unlucky, he was in the minority there.

You would think that those two numbers would make me overwhelmingly favorable when it comes to Morrow moving forward, and to an extent I am.  Unfortunately, you can’t consider those two marks independent of his other numbers.

Control has always been a question, with a minor league BB/9 of 4.4.  It’s something that has to be kept in mind, because it is going to keep him from being a big contributor in the WHIP department.  It is possible that he is improving, when you couple this year’s mark to last year’s 3.8 at Triple-A. 

However, the latter was over just 55.0 innings (10 starts) as he was being stretched out to return to the rotation.  It’s hard to put much stock in it.

You also have to wonder if he will be able to post this type of huge strikeout rate.  He’s always had strikeout potential, but in the minor leagues he was at just 8.1 K/9.  Granted, he did not spend much time there (101.2 innings), and half of that was last season (6.5 K/9).

Still, maintaining a near 11 strikeout per nine inning pace is hard to imagine.  Since 2005 there have been only two pitchers (who qualified for the ERA title) to finish with a K/9 of 10.5 or better:

Erik Bedard had a 10.9 K/9 in 2007
Tim Lincecum had a 10.5 K/9 in 2008

That’s it.  When you look at it in that perspective, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him regress closer to 10, if not slightly below it.  He’s still likely to be among of the elite strikeout pitchers in the game, but it’s almost impossible to see him maintain this year’s mark.

A decrease in strikeouts is going to lead to a regression in WHIP, because there are going to be even more balls put into play.

The other thing to consider is the division he plays in.  Just look at how he fared against the AL East in 2009:

Baltimore Orioles – 2-0, 4.50 ERA, 19 K in 18.0 IP
Boston Red Sox – 0-1, 15.88 ERA, 8 K in 5.2 IP
New York Yankees – 1-1, 5.93 ERA, 40 K in 27.1 IP
Tampa Bay Rays – 2-1, 1.23 ERA, 26 K in 22.0 IP

Outside of Tampa Bay, there are legitimate concerns with his performances.  Obviously, they are small sample sizes, but they are worrisome nonetheless.  We all know the AL East is going to remain among the toughest divisions in the game, so seeing him struggle there will certainly reflect against his overall numbers.

With all that in mind, let’s take a look at an extremely early 2011 projection for him (this will likely be amended as the offseason progresses and more things become clear):

180.0 IP, 14 W, 3.95 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 190 K (9.50 K/9), 78 BB (3.90 BB/9)

Those are certainly impressive numbers and ones that any owner should want to have.  The strikeouts alone make him extremely usable, but be cautious.  The ERA and WHIP could really go either way.  The numbers above are based on a BABIP of .310, but if he struggles there again, the numbers will inflate.

I’m also banking on another slight improvement in his control.  If he regresses there, all bets are off.

Like I’ve said, I think he certainly is keeper worthy, depending on your league rules, as he has emerged as a pitcher with tremendous potential.  If he pitched anywhere but the AL East he’d be a no-brainer, but unfortunately we can’t have everything.

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

Catchers
First Basemen
Second Basemen
Third Basemen
Shortstops
Outfielders
Closers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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Before I begin, I must state two things: I am a Yankees fan and I fully believe in utilizing advanced metrics to determine who deserves certain awards.

What exactly does that mean? That means I think the individual performance should far outweigh aspects of a player’s profile that are affected by their team’s performance.

For example, I look at Bartolo Colon’s 2005 Cy Young to be a travesty of the greatest magnitude. Why? Because I think Bartolo Colon’s 21 wins should not outweigh the fact that Johan Santana had an ERA 0.61 lower than Colon in nine more innings, not to mention Santana’s 81 more strikeouts and 35 fewer hits allowed (in just nine more innings, mind you!).

So why did Colon win the Cy Young in 2005? Because the Angels offense managed 761 runs (and a 93-69 record) that season compared to the Twins 688 runs (and their 83-79 record).

I’ve seen this argument a thousand times and, despite being right, no stat nerd will ever be able to convince an ignorant individual otherwise. Wins will always hold a ridiculous place in the public’s view of a starting pitcher; it’s why the award is named after Cy Young (the all-time leader in wins) and not Walter Johnson (a better pitcher than Cy Young); even though I think the Johnson Award would be a pretty cool name for the prize.

So why does any of this matter? I mean, Zack Greinke won the Cy Young last season despite the fact that he only finished with 16 wins. But last year the next closest pitchers (Hernandez, Sabathia, and Verlander) only finished with 19 wins. Greinke didn’t have as many wins as his nearest competitors, but 20 wins is looked at as a magic number and nobody reached it.

As CC Sabathia nears 20 wins, the debate between traditionalists and new age sabermatricians has taken to a whole new level.

Why? Because Felix Hernandez is currently the best pitcher in the American League despite the fact that he only has 10 wins—compared to CC Sabathia’s 19.

At the moment, CC Sabathia’s statistics are as follows: 29 GS, 19-5, 3.02 ERA, 202.2 IP, 165 SO, and a 1.20 WHIP.

Correspondingly, Felix Hernandez has posted the following stats: 29 GS, 10-10, 2.38 ERA, 211.1 IP, 200 SO, and a 1.10 WHIP.

Without even getting into advanced metrics (and I’d hardly call what I’m about to use advanced metrics) we can see that Hernandez has vastly outperformed Sabathia in every category except for wins.

As for the “advanced metrics,” I will list them for each pitcher. I believe the reader can discern what each stat means based on their traditional baseball abbreviation and an understanding of grammar school math.

Sabathia: K/9: 7.33; BB/9: 2.89; H/9: 7.90; K/BB: 2.54

Hernandez: K/9: 8.52; BB/9: 2.51; H/9: 7.41; K/BB: 3.39

So what does that mean? That means Felix Hernandez has pitched more innings than CC Sabathia while striking out more batters per nine innings, allowing fewer walks and hits per nine innings, and posting a better K/BB ratio. I won’t even get into statistics such as WAR, VORP, or ERA+ (all of which Hernandez leads Sabathia in).

The only “significant” category Sabathia leads Hernandez in is wins.

Why is that?

Perhaps it’s because Sabathia’s Yankees have scored 740 runs against the Mariners’ 435 runs. If 305 runs on offense doesn’t account for the difference between 19 wins and 10 wins, I don’t know what does.

However, some may say, “if all things were equal than Felix Hernandez would be pitching in the AL East, a much tougher division than the AL West.” That’s true…but there are also stats that make that argument seem foolish.

Here are Sabathia and Hernandez’s numbers against each other’s divisions.

Sabathia vs. AL West: 7 games, 6-1 W-L, 50.2 IP, 37 SO, 1.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Hernandez vs. AL East: 6 games, 5-0 W-L, 49.1 IP, 53 SO, 0.55 ERA, 0.79 WHIP

Whoops…so much for that argument. By the way, Hernandez’s record against the AL East includes a 3-0 record against the Yankees—the best offensive team in baseball—with a 0.35 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP.

And for those who say Hernandez doesn’t have to face the AL East regularly, remember that CC Sabathia NEVER has to face the Yankees, a team that Hernandez has dominated.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’d love for Carsten Charles to win the Cy Young award. In fact, I don’t think there is a pitcher in the American League—besides Felix Hernandez of course—that deserves the award other than him. In fact, I’d be willing to accept the necessary evil of Sabathia winning the award as long as Clay Buchholz doesn’t win it.

But that is something better saved for another article. However, just for thought—and because it relates to Buchholz’s Cy Young candidacy—consider the fact that Mariano Rivera finished second in the 2005 voting ahead of Johan Santana despite the fact that Santana had 153.1 more innings pitched than Rivera. You look at the stats and figure out the correlation.

Unfortunately, I think that this season Felix Hernandez will have to suffer the same indignity Santana faced when he came in third place in Cy Young voting in 2005, despite clearly deserving to win the award.

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Heading into the 2010 Major League Baseball season, there was one thing the Bay Area and everyone else knew for sure about the San Francisco Giants. Namely, that the squad would contend as long and as hard as the starting pitching would allow.

It was justifiably considered the organization’s backbone and primary weapon on the diamond.

Two-time defending National League Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, as notorious for throwing smoke as he became for inhaling it, was the unquestioned leader of the staff.

His younger wingman, Matt Cain, was coming off his first All-Star team selection and best season of his steadily improving career. Jonathan Sanchez, who registered the first no-hitter by a Giant in over 30 years against the San Diego Padres in 2009 and was firmly entrenched in his prime, would be the No. 4 starter.

Completing the robust rotation were blue-chip phenom Madison Bumgarner, whose arrival was only a matter of time regardless of what the brass told place-holder Todd Wellemeyer, as well as veteran southpaw and local chew-toy Barry Zito.

Even with the can-of-kerosene-wearing Wellemeyer’s uniform torching the rotation every fifth day (in reluctant fairness to the right-hander, he was actually pretty good at AT&T Park), it looked like a ferocious group on paper.

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The Yankees, winners of five straight, are about to embark on a rarity in baseball scheduling: five consecutive day games.

Luckily for the Yankees, they have thrived this season in day games, going 31-16.

The teams collectively hits better during the day, with a team batting average of .283 in day games compared to a .262 clip at night.

Here are some individual player statistics of those who fare better during the day than at night:

• The red-hot Mark Teixeira loves the day this season. He is batting at a higher average of .326 during the day, compared to .228 at night. His on-base percentage during the day is .415, 72 points higher than his .343 at night. He is also slugging .646 in day games, while only slugging .431 at night.
• The struggling Derek Jeter has significantly better numbers in day games this year, batting .326 compared to his .233 at night.
• Today’s starting pitcher CC Sabathia (18-5, 3.14), who is currently 10-0 at Yankee Stadium this season, boasts a 2.93 ERA during the day, and hitters are only batting .203 against him in day games.
• The ever inconsistent A.J. Burnett (10-12, 5.15), whose scheduled turn in the rotation would occur Monday, September 6th in game two against Baltimore, has pitched incredibly better during the day this season. Compared to his 5.91 ERA at night, he has a 3.02 ERA during the day. That is difficult to imagine considering the struggles he has gone through all season long. Also, he holds opponents to a .236 average in day games, compared to .298 at night.
• Phil Hughes (16-6, 4.10), scheduled to start on September 5th against Toronto, has fared slightly better during the day than at night. His ERA during the day is 3.91, a little better than his 4.19 during the day, while also going 6-1 this season during the day (10-5 at night).
• Jorge Posada bats .316 during the day, while slugging .617, with an OBP of .397 during the day compared to .222, .378, and .348 respectively at night.
• Brett Gardner’s daytime batting average is .304, while his nighttime batting average is sitting at .275. His OBP is better during the day at .418 compared to .372 at night.

As the Yankees look to extend their five-game winning streak, the daytime isn’t a bad time to do so. Look for the above players to have an impact, considering their success in day games.

Related Stories

• February 28, 2010 — 10 Problems the 2010 Yankees Could Face
• August 10, 2010 — Yankees Notes: Jeter, Burnett, Teixeira, Aceves, Melancon
• June 21, 2010 — Updated AL All-Star Ballot: Jeter and Cano Still Ahead
• April 3, 2010 — Possible Yankee Milestones to See Broken in 2010

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With the White Sox committing three errors, two of which by shortstop Alexei Ramirez, in their come from behind victory against the Indians, not even Manny Ramirez, who is not known for his defense could help the Sox in that department.

This year has been the first since 2006 that the White Sox will most likely finish in the top half of the majors in defense. This could be attributed to different things, such as Gordon Beckham’s move to second base from third, the addition of Alex Rios and even the addition of Juan Pierre in left field (not normally known for his defense).

The problem with this is that the Sox have often given away games earlier in the season to costly errors and committed very few errors during their tremendous turn around which landed them in first place for a while. But costly defensive mistakes have cost their starters and relievers innings.

Their biggest competition in the division, the Minnesota Twins have cause them a lot of grief, as the Sox have committed nine of their 77 team errors against the division rival. To make things even worse for the Sox, in the last five years the team with the better record held a better fielding percentage and fewer errors (exception was 2008 with the playoff game, both teams had an equal amount of errors).

If history will repeat itself again this year, the Sox have quite a mountain to climb as the Twins have the best fielding percentage (.989) and fewest errors of any American League team (56) and tied for the best fielding percentage among all teams in the major leagues.

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As the final month of the 2010 baseball season gets under way, the imaginations of baseball fans everywhere are alive with the possibility of a triple crown winner in the National League.  With statistics and probability we can put hard projections to that amazing possibility. 

Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Carlos Gonzalez all have an opportunity to win the first National League triple crown since Joe Medwich of St. Louis did it 1937 (interesting note – three of the four NL Triple Crown winners since 1900 have played for St. Louis). 

What this article will attempt to do is examine the probability of each player winning the triple crown.  Using past performance as an indicator of future performance, we’ll examine what Pujols, Votto and Gonzalez have done in past Septembers and see if we can project what they will do this September. 

We’ll also weight that historical data against their performances this season to give us a better estimate of where they’ll finish the season. 

We begin with showing where each player stands on September 1st.

Albert Pujols     35 HR, 95 RBI, .316 AVG
Joey Votto       32 HR, 97 RBI, .327 AVG
Carlos Gonzalez 29 HR, 91 RBI,  .326 AVG

ALBERT PUJOLS

After a slow start to the season, for Pujols standards, the great Albert has been on fire since the All-Star break.  In the second half he has slammed 12 home runs, driven in 28 base runners and hit .342.

Pujols is first in HR, second in RBI and fourth in batting average.

Pujols is in the midst of his 10th major league season.  As a result we have a lot of data showing how he has performed in the month of September. 

Here are his last four years, all of them occurring since he and the Cardinals moved into new Busch Stadium.

2009: 30, games, 134 PA (17 walks), 6 HR, 25 RBI, .357 AVG
2008: 25 games, 103 PA (17 walks), 8 HR, 27 RBI, .321 AVG
2007: 28 games, 109 PA (18 walks), 2 HR, 19 RBI, .386 AVG
2006: 29 games, 129 PA (19 walks), 10 HR, 28 RBI, .373 AVG

The average is the most important because it’s the category Pujols has to make up the most in.  He can certainly do it.  In four of the last six seasons Pujols has hit over .350 in September.  For his career he is a .343 hitter in the season’s final month.  That’s 10 points higher than his career mark of .333. 

Here are his total stats in September and October. 

1055 PA  884 AB  51 HR  192 RBI  .343 AVG
16.5 AB/HR
5.5 PA/RBI

Now just because Pujols has performed at a certain level in the past doesn’t mean he’ll do the same this year.  It’s important to consider how he’s been doing recently in 2010.  Since he has 32 games left in 2010, we’ll look at this last 32 games played.

143 PA 129 AB  13 HR  26 RBI  .364 BA
9.9 AB/HR
5.5 RBI/PA

If we add in his recent performance with his average performance over the last nine years (giving a little bit more weight towards his recent performance), we get the following projections for the rest of the season:

7.5 HR(+/- 1) 24 RBI(+/- 2)  .344 AVG

Which added to his totals as of September 1st, give him a final projection of: 

43 HR, 119 RBI, .323 AVG

As indicated above there is a margin of error.  However the projections should be 95 percent certain within the margin of error.

JOEY VOTTO

Votto has only been a full-time baseball player for his three years.  In 2007 he was a September call-up for Cincinnati. He made his major league debut on September 4th of that year. 

Here are his performances in September since 2007:

2009: 30 games, 126 PA (22 walks), 5 HR, 19 RBI, .385 AVG
2008: 25 games, 110 PA (15 walks), 9 HR, 20 RBI, .309 AVG
2007: 24 games, 89 PA (5 walks) 4 HR, 17 RBI, .360 AVG

For Votto we get totals of 325 plate appearances and 298 at-bats.  This gives him an AB per HR of 15.6, an PA per RBI of 5.8 and an average of .340.  If he can duplicate that line this year, he’ll win the batting title and have an excellent shot at the triple crown. 

Votto and the Reds have 30 games left this year.

Based on his history, weighted with his recent performance, Votto is projected to hit seven or eight home runs,  produce 24 to 26 RBI and hit around .345.  I have weighted his 2009 and 2008 seasons more than his 2007 season in this calculation.  

For Votto I have also factored in the increase in walk rate, which could reduce his home run and RBI potential, but help his batting average (as it did in 2009).

This gives him a final line of:

40 HR, 123 RBI, .333 AVG

Like Pujols, Votto’s projection is based on him starting all of the Reds remaining games.  Also like Pujols, this is a safe assumption considering the Reds pursuit of a playoff spot.  The only difference with Votto is that the Reds have a better chance of wrapping up a playoff spot with a few games remaining.  If this happens, Votto might receive some days off before the playoffs. 

CARLOS GONZALEZ

Gonzalez is the hardest to predict.  Since he only has one season in Colorado, and the National League, there is a large margin of error in estimating his performance over Colorado’s final 31 games. 

Here is Gonzalez’s performance over the last month of the season (almost all of this was compiled in 2009):

136 PA  121 AB  5 HR  13 RBI .273 AVG
24.2 AB/HR
10.5 PA/RBI

And more importantly his performance over his last 31 games of 2010:

135 PA  121 AB  12 HR  29 RBI  .388 AVG
10 AB/HR
4.65 RBI/PA

Gonzalez really wore down in September and October last year.  Like this year he had been scorching hot in August (.317, 6 HR, 13 RBI).

To get an accurate projection for Gonzalez we’ll weight his performance this year more than his performance last year.  This gives us a projection for September 2010 of:

8 HR (+/- 3), 19 RBI (+/- 7) and a .342 AVG

Gonzalez’s margin of error is huge because we have so little data to go on.  If he sticks to the data in the middle he’ll finish with a line of:

37 HR, 110 RBI, .326 BA

Other Players to Consider

We have to give attention to Adam Dunn’s chances of leading the NL in home runs.  Dunn is second in home runs with 33, that’s two behind Pujols. 

Here are Adam Dunn’s September homerun totals over the past six years:

2009: 27 games, 3 HR in 99 AB – Played for the Washington Nationals
2008: 26 games, 6 HR in 88 AB – Played for the Arizona Diamondbacks
2007: 20 games, 4 HR in 62 AB
2006: 28 games, 2 HR in 87 AB
2005: 30 games, 5 HR in 104 AB
2004: 31 games, 6 HR in 110 AB – Played for the Cincinnati Reds through 2007

That’s 26 home runs in 550 at-bats or about 21 at-bats per home run.  The evidence suggests that Dunn fades as the season wanes.  This probably explains why he has never lead the NL in home runs but has finished second twice and third once. 

History suggests we can discard Dunn as a threat to overtake the home run lead by season’s end.

The Atlanta Braves have two hitters which could spoil the triple crown pursuit, Martin Prado and Omar Infante. Prado is hitting .317 and Infante is hitting .341. 

Infante only has 370 plate appearances this year.  He needs 502 to qualify for the batting title.  Since being inserted into the Braves everyday staring lineup on July 29th, he has averaged 4.6 PA per game, most of them from the lead-off spot. 

The Braves have 31 games left.  If he starts everyone of them and maintains this pace, he’ll finish with around 512 PA.

It’s going to be close with Infante.  He’ll have to play everyday and keep hitting.  Infante is only a .275 career hitter, so how he’s doing it this year is a complicated mystery for another article.  It’s hard to predict if he’ll keep it up and stay ahead of Votto and his projected final average of .333

Prado is a career .311 hitter with an career average of .276 in September.  There’s little chance he wins the batting title, unless he significantly outperforms his past history. 

WRAP-UP

Based on this projection system the final lines for these three players are:

Pujols     43 HR (+/- 1), 119 RBI (+/- 2), .323 AVG
Votto     40 HR (+/- 0.5) 123 RBI (+/- 1) , .333 AVG
Gonzalez 37 HR (+/- 3) , 110 RBI (+/- 7) , .326 AVG

Joey Votto has the best chance to win the NL triple crown.  He has a 95 percent chance to win the batting title and the RBI title.  He has a 22% chance to win the HR title. 

Albert Pujols has a 68 percent chance to win the HR title, about a 40 percent chance to win the RBI title and only a 2.5 percent chance to win the batting crown.

Gonzalez’s chances are lower than 34 percent in each category.  His total chances of winning are about 3%.  Albert Pujols has a 36 percent chance of winning the National League Triple Crown. 

Remember that all of these are a projections based on past performances in the season’s final month and recent performances in 2010.  Many other factors will come into play in September (injuries, home/road splits, lineup strength, days of rest or another hitter emerging in one of the three categories). 

If the past and present hold true though, Joey Votto has an excellent chance to win the NL Triple Crown. 

I’d put Votto’s chances at about 64 percent as of September 1st.

For a look at the data and methodology used in this study click here.

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Every few years before the All-Star break, a slugger has a big first half and triple crown talk gives way. By August, a triple crown seems like a distant memory. The hopeful who was likely leading one or two of the three categories in June, has either slumped, been pitched around, or just simply not had the luck required to accomplish this amazing feat.

This season that was Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera, who is currently hitting .342 with 33 home runs and a major league leading 107 RBI’s, hasn’t slowed down one bit since his hot start. He is still being pitched to, still hitting for average, and still cranking the long ball that has allowed him to drive in over 100 runs before the month of September. Unfortunately for Cabrera, Toronto RF Jose Bautista has had a career year and continues to belt bombs at an alarming rate with a major league leading 42 dingers.

That’s the luck part of the equation. If Cabrera played in the National League, he would have a commanding lead in RBI’s, batting average, and would be just three jacks shy of Albert Pujols in the home run category.

Luckily for Pujols, his St. Louis Cardinals are in the NL and he doesn’t have to contend with a Bautista a Cabrera, or even a Josh Hamilton for the league lead in any such category. Enter Joey Votto.

Votto, who is currently battling the Machine for league MVP and NL Central supremacy, has become a household name in 2010 with his production at the plate. Votto is currently second in the NL in all three triple crown categories and is in striking distance of first in each one. Votto’s .325 average, 32 jacks, and 93 RBI’s are currently .001 behind the NL leader in batting and three dingers and two RBI’s behind Pujols in homers and RBI’s.

For the first time in recent memory, September rolls around with not one, but two legitimate contenders for the first triple crown since Carl Yastrzemski in 1973 and the first NL triple crown winner since Joe Medwick accomplished the trifecta in 1937.

One would be likely to assume that if the triple crown is not accomplished in 2010, it will be simply because one beat out the other in the final category lacking. While this may end up being the case, another player in the National League has a say so in the race for baseball immortality. Not only does this player have a say so, he may actually acquire the whole triple crown for himself.

Who is this third contender in the race for the great triple crown you ask? Say hello to 24-year-old Carlos Gonzalez. In his first full season in the big time, Gonzalez quietly leads the NL in batting with a .326 average while belting 29 home runs and driving in 90 RBI’s for a Rockies club that is battling for the NL Wild Card.

While Cards and Reds fans are fearing that the youngster will win the batting title and prevent their hero from the triple crown, don’t count this kid out of winning the triple crown all on his own. Five RBI’s behind Pujols for the league lead and six behind Albert in homers, it isn’t inconceivable that Gonzalez has a power surge in September and gives both Votto and Pujols a serious run for their money.

With both the Cards and the Reds in a pennant race, Votto and Pujols could see less and less pitches as the season winds down leaving the door wide open for Gonzalez. While six home runs is still a sizable lead for Pujols over Gonzalez in the bombs department, Gonzalez still has 17 games remaining at the launching pad they call Coors Field.

Both Gonzalez and Pujols had their best months of the season in August setting up for a thrilling September. During the month of August, Pujols blasted 12 homers, batted .412, and drove in 24 runs. Gonzalez was not far off pace, leaving the yard nine times while batting .378 and also driving in 24 runs. Votto had a fabulous month of August as well batting .322 with 21 runs driven in, but fell off the home run pace of Pujols sending just five balls out of the park. If Pujols and Gonzalez have the type of month in September that they did in August, baseball could have an extremely intriguing final series as the Rockies visit the Cardinals in the final week of the season.

Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, and Carlos Gonzalez are in a tight race heading into the last month of the season. The Machine, the Canadian, and the youngster are all chasing a feat that hasn’t been achieved in their league in 73 years and in all honesty likely won’t be done this season. But if just one of these players can stay hot, healthy, and acquire the right amount of luck, we could maybe, just maybe, see an epic feat that many of us have never witnessed in our lifetime.

-scf

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