The latest NL Cy Young Award Race, depending on who you talk to, may be already under lock and key, or wide the bleep open.
Here are the pitchers who may win the NL Cy Young Award….
*Note: They are not in a certain order, as in 5 to 1, or 1 to 5, they are just leading candidates in the Cy Young Race. At the end, there will be honorable mentions for excellent pitching performances of this season, NOT Cy Young Award Candidates*
Back on June 2, I wondered if the Toronto Blue Jays could break the single season team home run record of 264 set by the 1997 Seattle Mariners. At the time of the post, the Blue Jays had hit 89 home runs in 53 games. That was a 1.68 home run per game pace which would put them at 272 home runs for the season.
Now, 73 games later, I thought it would be a good exercise to see if the Blue Jays were still at a pace to break the single season team home run record.
With two more home runs last night against the New York Yankees, the Blue Jays currently have 190 home runs in 126 games. That is a home run per game rate of 1.5 which is a slight drop from their 1.68 pace they set a couple of months ago.
At this rate, the Blue Jays would finish the season with 243 homers. That’s really good but not good enough to beat out the ’97 Mariners.
One guy that has tried to do everything he can to help the Blue Jays break this record is Jose Bautista. Bautista has clubbed 40 home runs and has exceeded everyone’s expectations.
While Bautista has done his part, it’s the other Blue Jay hitters that have slowed down. John Buck has only hit one HR in the last two months. Vernon Wells has four homers in the last two months.
The Blue Jays have also fallen off tremendously on the road. They have hit only 1.3 home runs on the road. The good news is that the Blue Jays have 11 more games at home than on the road to close out the season. They have hit 1.8 home runs at home.
So as the Blue Jays have fallen a little off their record pace, it doesn’t discount what they have done this year. They have become a very entertaining and fun team to watch.
And who knows? Maybe with some more home games, the Blue Jays can still break the Mariners’ record.
You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg
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The Mets lost 2-1 Sunday to the Pittsburgh Pirates with Johan pitching another eight strong innings, and having nothing to show for it.
This season, it seems the Mets have been invisible anytime Santana takes the mound. So, I crunched the numbers a bit to see how much of a tough-luck loser Santana has been this year.
Here are some facts about Santana and the Mets when he starts:
As you can see, Santana has not gotten any help this year when he has stepped on the mound. It is almost like the Mets do not have as much urgency to score runs when Santana is pitching because they know he will pitch well.
Santana has been a top 10 pitcher in MLB this season, but the Mets have been the worst offense in baseball when Johan starts.
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Yesterday’s transaction line for the Cubs showed a bit of an eye-opening move.
Cubs’ GM Jim Hendry exchanged one youthful left-handed specialist reliever for a righty with so-so stuff in a move that sent Justin Berg down to Triple-A Iowa for Scott Maine.
Berg has been a very big disappointment in his first try in the majors, sporting a 5.77 ERA to go along with his 2.88 strikeout per nine innings ratio.
To make matters worse than that terrible K/9 figure, he is walking a ton of batters, leading to a unthinkable 0.61 K/BB rate (2.15 average).
It looks as though even though Berg is still young, 26, it looks as if his he doesn’t possess what it takes to be a major leaguer.
Berg wields a 90 mph-sinker with a below average slider. While he throws the sinker with good enough movement, it’s nowhere near good enough, or fast enough to throw it 83.6 percent of the time.
He isn’t making hitters swing and miss, and he doesn’t possess command good enough to cancel out his shortcomings with the strikeout.
The lefty who Hendry brought up in exchange for Berg, Scott Maine, looks like a solid bullpen arm.
Berg isn’t really a true left-handed specialist, in that he faced right-handed batters twice as often as lefties, but he is definitely more effective against southpaw batters.
Maine is good at making hitters pound the ball into the dirt with his fastball, and he puts away lefties with a nice slurve.
His arm slot (seen above) is also more effective against lefties, and he may struggle against big league right-handed batters because of that.
Acquired in the deal that sent Aaron Heilman to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Maine has been an excellent bullpen arm for the Cubs’ minor league teams, even picking up a handful of saves here and there.
Maine has shown that he can be a solid strike-out threat to both lefties and righties, while limiting the walk and home run.
Walks can be a problem for him, but what power lefty doesn’t have problems with the walk? As he conditions himself to Major League competition, look for him to lower his walk rate.
This was a move long coming, as Berg has not produced as a Chicago Cub. He is producing below replacement value (-0.3 WAR), and even worse, for being a rookie, he has shown he has limited potential.
Maine, on the other hand, may bring some value to the left-handed specialist spot that has been missing out of the Cubs’ bullpen for years.
Photo compliments of minors.mlblogs.com
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Cubs rookie pitcher Casey Coleman has enjoyed varying game-to-game success, inducing a plethora of ground balls and keeping the ball out of the air in general.
The 15th-round draft pick in 2008 doesn’t have blue-chip prospect “stuff,” but he can certainly provide some value out of the Cubs’ fifth spot in the rotation.
Coleman works with a solid two-seam fastball that hovers around 90 m.p.h., as does his four-seam fastball. His two-seamer has good run, which is where he gets his majority of ground balls, while his four-seamer has a bit more of a cutting action.
Cubs fans, if you are expecting the next coming of Randy Wells, you will be sorely mistaken. Coleman will never be a strikeout man, as his career K/9 in the minors was 5.00. Look for a poor man’s Derek Lowe or Tim Hudson as his career standard. Coleman is making hitters swing and miss only 5.2 percent of the time, compared to the league average 8.4 percent.
What Coleman can deliver is a lot of ground balls, while hopefully minimizing the home run. With a capable defense behind Coleman, he can become successful. If his infield defense fails him by not getting to ground balls, he will falter.
What Coleman needs to do is simply pitch to contact. That has been a struggle in and of itself thus far, as he is posting a below average Zone percentage (42.2 percent; 46.8 percent average). This leads to Coleman posting a Carlos Marmol-like walk per nine innings pitched (4.74).
To make matters worse, there is evidence of Coleman struggling with runners on base. His walk rate skyrockets and he is allowing more hits with runners on than with the bases empty. This hints at the idea of Coleman struggling to find comfort with a slide-step, or that he loses effectiveness and/or command with it. If that’s the case, he should just abandon the slide-step, a la Greg Maddux, and just focus on the batter and let his pitches induce a double play.
Coleman has much to learn in terms of pitch location and selection, but he looks like he has the tools to become a viable back-end starter. Time will tell if he adjusts to Major League hitting and avoids the walk. If he doesn’t, his career will be short in the show, and he will be a Triple-A career starter.
This article was also featured on TheUnfortunateCubsFan.com
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Geovany Soto made a solid statement his 2008 rookie season, slugging his way to a .371 wOBA, third among Major League catchers (Brian McCann and Joe Mauer).
He also tied for the Major League lead among catchers with 23 home runs.
Soto followed his impressive rookie campaign with a pretty severe sophomore slump, much to the chagrin of Cubs fans and potential fantasy owners predicting him to repeat or build upon his first season.
Soto hit for a mere .310 wOBA in his second season in the bigs and was hit with the recoil of working 141 games behind the plate his rookie year; he was hurt for a total of 37 days, including 31 days for an oblique strain.
The two seasons represented polar opposites of what you could expect from Soto. In 2008 his .219 Isolated Power Index (.150 average) was expected to be an absurd number from a catcher who spent hardly any time as a top prospect, and his .332 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was seen as another number that was due for regression.
Meanwhile, in 2009 his .246 BABIP was seen as a fluke compared to his minor league numbers, while increasing his walk rate and decreasing his strikeout rate.
This sentiment was shared by FanGraphs’ R.J. Anderson: “part of this is obviously regression and the other part is that he’s likely not a .371 wOBA hitter. The good news is, the answer is somewhere in between.”
Well, as it turns out, the answer wasn’t somewhere in between. This season, Soto continued to elevate his walk rate and make the most of his at-bats, specifically in working his way to hitter’s counts.
In 2010, Soto has been hitting for a .398 wOBA, tops among Major League catchers with 300 plate appearances. Fueling that number has been his improved power (.231 ISO) and an obscene .401 on-base percentage (.327 average).
So what’s the difference been between the three seasons where Soto has enjoyed polarizing performances?
The main support to Soto’s successes is very clear: It’s been his ability to hit the fastball.
In 2008, Soto hit fastballs for 16.9 runs above average (RAA). His second season, in which he had his sophomore slump, he hit fastballs again for an above average number—3.9—although this drop in production against the heater led to an increased vulnerability to sliders (-3.5 to -11.2 RAA) and curveballs (3.4 to -2.1 RAA).
This season, Soto has rediscovered his ability to hit the fastball, hammering them to a 20.7 RAA mark, best among Major League catchers; his off-speed production thus improved accordingly.
What is to blame for the dip in production following his Rookie of the Year campaign? It would be easy to say that his oblique issues were the cause of this, although Soto has been injured this season as well.
It remains to be seen if Soto will maintain the successes he enjoyed in 2008 and 2010 or regress to somewhere “in between” that production or the numbers he put up in 2008.
This article was also featured at TheUnfortunateCubsFan.com
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Ben Zobrist is the starting second baseman on the Tampa Bay Rays. He made the 2009 American League All-Star team with a batting average of .297, 27 home runs, and 91 runs batted in.
That season, he was voted MVP of the Rays by the Tampa Bay sector of the Baseball Writers and finished 8th in American League MVP voting. “Zorilla,” the nickname given to him by his manager Joe Maddon, is very involved with his Christian faith and is a true class act.
Here is my interview with Mr. Zobrist—
BW: What is the funniest thing that has ever happened in your locker room?
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Evan Longoria is no longer considered a rising star.
Many now consider Longoria to be a baseball superstar and the face of the Tampa Bay Rays. In just under three seasons as a Major League third baseman, Longoria has a career .282 avg. with 78 home runs and 282 RBI, not to mention a Gold Glove.
He began his 2010 campaign with high numbers that have come to be expected from him, but he tailed off when the Rays went into their “June Swoon”. Longoria hit his 12th home run on June 15 against Atlanta and has only hit six since then. However, two of those six have come in the past week in what has been an offensive resurgence for Longoria.
Why has Evan gotten so hot lately? The return of first baseman Carlos Pena to the Rays’ lineup has certainly had an effect. In the seven games since Pena’s return on August 16, Longoria is hitting .392 with two home runs and 12 RBI, and has returned to the clutch form he has become famous for.
While his Gold Glove defense has been consistent all season, Longoria had been inconsistent at the plate. With Pena’s big bat behind him, pitchers now cannot focus solely on Longoria. BJ Upton has also had a mini revival at the plate since Carlos Pena’s return and the entire lineup seems to be clicking better.
All signs point to a fun fall for baseball fans in the Tampa Bay area, but when October is done and the champions are crowned, Carlos Pena will be a free agent. With Longoria and Upton both starting to get hot with Pena’s return, one has to wonder how Pena’s probable departure in 2011 will affect the Rays lineup.
There will be a lot of issues the Rays must face this offseason, including Pena, Crawford, and Soriano’s free agencies, the stadium debate, and the performance issues of hitting coach Derek Shelton. While the future of the franchise may be blurry, the 2010 season still promises hope.
On August 23, the Rays are 76-48, one game behind New York and 5.5 games ahead of Boston for the Wild Card. Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff predictor, PECOTA, gives the Rays a 95.6 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 47 percent chance of winning the division. If Longoria continues his recent upswing, look for the Rays to seriously challenge the Yankees for the American League East crown.
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To commemorate Carlos Marmol’s 100th strikeout this season, I’ve decided to highlight one of the few bright spots amid an awful season for the franchise.
Marmol, in his first full season as the team’s closer, has certainly showed why he should be among the game’s elite relievers.
Carlos Marmol’s 2010 campaign will be highlighted as a massive step forward in his career, as he eclipsed both the aforementioned 100 strikeout mark as well as the two WAR mark for the first time in his young career.
By far, the most frustrating aspect about Marmol’s game has been his inability to limit free passes. His BB/9 stood at 7.91 last season, the worst mark for a Major League reliever, and the primary reason his WHIP stood at an obnoxious 1.46. This season, he is limiting his walk rate to 5.82 BB/9—still among the worst in the majors, but obviously a vast improvement.
Marmol has always been the unhittable type, with a .182 career batting average against (BAA), and last season he had a .171 BAA. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) last season (.262) suggested that would regress to the norm a bit, so a slight rise in hits would be expected in the 2010 campaign.
Well, it has risen: .003 points, although his BABIP hasn’t stabilized—it skyrocketed to .360, suggesting hitters are getting lucky with a .174 BAA.
This year, Marmol is leading all Major League relievers with contact percentage, or rather non-contact percentage. His 60.6 percent contact rate is far below the 80.9 percent league average. To counter Marmol’s talents for missing bats, hitters are simply not swinging at his offerings, hoping to simply draw a walk.
That is how nastily Marmol is pitching this year; hitters are coming up to the plate with the intention of just watching him pitch, because they have no hope of getting a hit off him, or making any contact off him for that matter.
Carlos Marmol is dealing this year.
So what’s the change this year? For one, Marmol is getting ahead of batters. His career first strike percentage sits at a below average 53.5 percent, but this year he is throwing strike one 62.1 percent of the time, slightly above average. This has allowed Marmol to keep hitters off balance even more with his slider, which he throws 58.4 percent of the time. All of this leads up to a career-high 16.17 K/9 rate, the best in the majors by far.
Marmol has found a new secret to success, although it’s not really a secret to the rest of us: Miss bats, limit walks, and keep the ball on the ground, which he’s doing a bit better (career-high 38.5 ground ball percentage).
Carlos Marmol has established himself as a premier closer, which the Cubs have been searching dearly for for years now. Marmol looks to have gotten on the right track with some of his issues, particularly with walks. However, it remains to be seen if he can improve on this or if he’ll simply regress to his career norm.
This article can also be seen at TheUnfortunateCubsFan.com
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The ‘Dog Days of Summer’ are coming to a close and not surprisingly, October is on the horizon again for the 2010 New York Yankees. With strong and reliable pitching, the emergence of Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner, and the consistency of Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter, the Yankees have put themselves in the driver’s seat in both the AL East, and the AL Championship (http://es.pn/bcuDuH).
Although they share a 5.5 game lead with the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox (8/19/2010), the Yankees have set themselves up for an all but sure shot at the World Series this October (I’m knocking on wood here, fans). Despite all this great news for the Yankees, here at SeatGeek we have noticed even greater news for Yankees fans. The average ticket price for upcoming Yankee home games continues to fall.
The Yankees ticket prices have had the highest average value for most of this season, yet they have recently slipped to number 10 of the 30 teams with an average price of $49 per ticket, the lowest it’s been all season. This might be because of the upcoming road trip or the fact that a majority of the Yankees opponents for the rest of the year aren’t contending for a post-season berth. 
This is great for cash conscious consumers who have yet to see a Yankees game this season. If you haven’t, now there is more of a reason to than before—strike while the iron is hot! Surprise your lady-friend, be a hero to your kids, or wow your friends with some great seats. Of the Yankees’ final 21 home games, 14 of those are against teams that you can all but write off for a post-season berth. We’ve sorted the remaining home games by average cost of a ticket, and there are some relatively affordable games to see this September.
As you can see, the most affordable upcoming Yankee home games coming up are:
1. NYY v. BAL on 9/6 with an Avg. price of $54.13 per ticket
2. NYY v. OAK on 9/2 with an Avg. price of $55.58 per ticket
3. NYY v. BAL on 9/7 with an Avg. price of $59.24 per ticket
You can sort through the remaining Yankees home games and buy tickets here. Tickets for today’s game against the Detroit Tigers can be had for as low as $10.00 a ticket Conversely, if you are looking to make some coin in the final month of the season, you better already have a supply of Yankees vs. Red Sox tickets. This is the last home stand for the Yankees, and as expected, these tickets have the highest average price. SeatGeek is forecasting that tickets to these games will sell for an average price of $137.92, $131.61, and $116.57 respectively.
Read More at SeatGeek.com/blog
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