Tag: Stats

New York Mets July Organizational Report: Players of the Month

MLB: New York Mets, July record of 9-17, overall record of 53-52, third place in NL East, seven games back

Position Player of the Month: Outfielder, Angel Pagan

In a month in which the Mets plummeted down the standings, Angel Pagan was one of the lone bright spots on an otherwise anemic offense. The switch hitter managed to get on base even during the roughest of patches for the Mets and has continued to hit will with runners in scoring position.

During July, Pagan hit .337 with five home runs and nine stolen bases. His .402 OBP was all the more impressive. He showed Mets management that he had no business losing out on playing time despite the return of Carlos Beltran. With health has come production from Pagan.

Pitcher of the Month: Left-handed pitcher, Johan Santana

After a great July, Johan Santana appears to have returned to form. In six starts, he posted a 3-0 record, giving up just 10 runs in 43 innings of work. His walk totals were down slightly from June and he has clearly regained the command that fans have grown to expect. Five of his six starts were of the quality variety, including a complete game shutout against the Reds.

Santana got rocked in his last outing of the month, but had been nearly flawless in July up until that point. He’ll be looking to bounce back from that start to post his second consecutive excellent month of pitching.

 

AAA Buffalo Bisons, July record of 13-14, overall record of 54-53, third place in INT North, 8.5 games back

Position Player of the Month: Outfielder, Lucas Duda

Just like last month, Duda has proven to make an outstanding adjustment to AAA pitching, and has continued his hard hitting. In 26 games in July for Buffalo, Duda amassed 31 hits while posting a .313 batting average. He crushed nine home runs and drove in 25 runs.

He’s looking like a reliable middle-of-the-order type hitter who has plenty of pop and can drive in runners regularly. Again, his plate discipline will need some work, but he continues to be shooting in the right direction.

Pitcher of the Month: Left-handed pitcher, Pat Misch

Misch also repeats as pitcher of the month for the Bisons, putting up stronger numbers in July than June. In six July starts, Misch went 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 35 strikeouts. The command is there. He walked just six during the month and appeared in the AAA All-Star Game.

If the Mets are ever in need of another reliable southpaw arm on the big league club, Misch will no doubt be the next name on the call-up list.

 

AA Binghamton Mets, July record of 12-18, overall record of 54-55, fourth place in EAS Eastern Division, 11 games back

Position Player of the Month: Outfielder, Kirk Nieuwenhuis

After having some severe ups and downs, Nieuwenhuis has really gotten back into shape after pounding the ball in July. His plate discipline is emerging. He did strike out 24 times, but he drew 13 walks in July. He smacked six homers and drove in 17 runs while batting .328 and swiping two bases. His 38 hits are equally impressive.

The Mets clearly value him highly, especially after they turned down a trade in which they would have sent him to Toronto for lefty setup man Scott Downs.

Pitcher of the Month: Right-handed pitcher, Josh Stinson

His ERA seems inflated in July in comparison to his record, but he gets run support. His high walk totals have contributed to some of his struggles, but nonetheless, Stinson knows how to pitch out of trouble and turn in some wins.

In five July starts, he put together a 4-0 record despite a 5.19 ERA. He struck out 19 batters in 26 innings pitched. Despite all the runs he gave up in July, he didn’t allow a single home run.

He really just has to clean up his command before he gets more consideration from scouts.

 

A Adv. St. Lucie Mets, July record of 14-15, overall record of 18-19 (second half), third place in FSL South, 1.5 games back

Position Player of the Month: Shortstop, Wilmer Flores

One of the Mets’ top prospects at his level, Flores seems to adjust quickly to each level after every call-up. Moving up to St. Lucie has only seen Flores continue to post consistent hitting numbers.

In 29 games in July, he hit a solid .279 with three home runs, 18 runs knocked, 34 hits, and 13 runs. A righty batter, he is also mashing against left-handed pitching, batting over .400 against southpaws.

This kind of all-around game will assist him in rising the ranks very quickly in the Mets farm system. 

Pitcher of the Month: Right-handed pitcher, Erik Turgeon

On a team of struggling starters, relief pitchers have been given a chance to stick it out at St. Lucie. Turgeon is a young righty arm and is developing his stuff in a late inning role for the Mets.

He converted on four save opportunities in July and posted a 2.87 ERA in 12 appearances while striking out 14 and walking only six. Turgeon throws pretty hard and will stand out even more if he can put up larger save totals.

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MLB Trade News: Yankees Acquire Outfieflder Austin Kearns

According to Joel Sherman of the NY Post, who’s on fire today breaking two trades, the Yankees acquired outfielder Austin Kearns from the Cleveland Indians for a player to be named later.

Kearns fills the roll of an outfielder who can hit lefties. He’s not a lefty masher or anything, but his career 106 OPS+ against them is an upgrade over Colin Curtis . Sherman also reports that part of the reason the Yankees targeted Kearns is because he’s a pretty good outfielder and manager Joe Girardi has lost faith in the defensive abilities of Marcus Thames .

Kearns, 30, is a free agent after this season as he is on a one-year $0.75 million contract. He’s neither a Type-A or B free agent.

Here are his stats:

Year Tm G AB R H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2002 CIN 107 372 66 117 24 13 56 6 54 81 .315 .407 .500 .907 134
2003 CIN 82 292 39 77 11 15 58 5 41 68 .264 .364 .455 .819 117
2004 CIN 64 217 28 50 10 9 32 2 28 71 .230 .321 .419 .740 92
2005 CIN 112 387 62 93 26 18 67 0 48 107 .240 .333 .452 .785 104
2006 TOT 150 537 86 142 33 24 86 9 76 135 .264 .363 .467 .830 112
2006 CIN 87 325 53 89 21 16 50 7 35 85 .274 .351 .492 .843 110
2006 WSN 63 212 33 53 12 8 36 2 41 50 .250 .381 .429 .810 114
2007 WSN 161 587 84 156 35 16 74 2 71 106 .266 .355 .411 .765 103
2008 WSN 86 313 40 68 10 7 32 2 35 63 .217 .311 .316 .627 67
2009 WSN 80 174 20 34 6 3 17 1 32 51 .195 .336 .305 .641 72
2010 CLE 83 298 42 80 17 8 42 4 34 77 .268 .351 .413 .764 111
9 Seasons 925 3177 467 817 172 113 464 31 419 759 .257 .353 .426 .778 104
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com : View Original Table
Generated 7/30/2010.

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MLB Closer Report (July 29th)

One thing that goes overlooked, as far as closers are concerned, is their effectiveness in staying focused when blowing a save. Often times when a reliever comes in and blows the lead for their team, they are either taken out or will proceed to lose the game. There is a BIG difference when it comes to blowing a save and blowing a game. It goes unnoticed often, but one thing that can make a great fantasy baseball closer, is their desire to remain in the game and hold their ground when they give up a couple of runs.

Think about it, if you have a closer who can add 5-10 wins a year it’s almost like having another starter going every week. We saw K-Rod throw 40+ pitches when he blew a save a couple of weeks ago, but he stayed in and recorded a win for the Mets. Read on to see who kept their composure this past week.

Grade A

Carlos Marmol (Cubs): It makes my job more fun when I get to put this man in the A group. Marmol’s strikeout watch is now at 91. That is more than Randy Wolf, Wandy Rodriguez, Jaime Garcia, and Johnny Cueto─ all starting pitchers! What’s more is that Marmol has done it in only 48.1 IP. For the week he went 2-for-2 in SVO and added eight K’s (no runs).

Rafael Soriano (Rays): Soriano had a very nice week and continues to bolster the Rays bullpen. He went 4-for-4 over the last seven and added four K’s without allowing a run. He had a 1.00 WHIP over the last seven and it now sits at just 0.91.

Matt Capps (Nationals): While Capps has fallen to fourth in the NL in saves (25), he has also added three wins for his fantasy owners . This past week he went 2-for-2 in SVO and allowed just two men to reach base.

Heath Bell (Padres):

Bell went 3-for-3 during the week and allowed just one man to reach base. He is now second in the majors with 29 saves and has given his fantasy owners four wins on top of that.

 

Grade B

Neftali Feliz (Rangers): Feliz is third in the majors with 28 saves, and this past week he added three more to that total (3-for-3). He did allow a run in 3.2 IP but added his second win of the year. Overall it was a great week in fantasy baseball for Feliz.

Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox): His season totals are solid with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with 24 saves. However, he has just a 37:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio and he has four blown saves with four losses. Last week he blew a save (3-for-4) and walked three men.

Kevin Gregg (Blue Jays): It isn’t often this man does his job without making his manager cringe. He has a 3.72 ERA on the year, but unfortunately for his owners he hasn’t been able to record a win yet (0-4). He went 2-for-2 the last week without allowing a batter to reach base.

John Axford (Brewers): The newest fantasy worthy closer , Axford, has been doing everything asked of him. After taking the closer’s job, Axford has only recorded 6 wins and gone 15-for-16 in SVO. For not being up for the first part of the season Axford’s six wins have to have his owners relishing the moment they picked him up.

Brian Wilson (Giants): Wilson went 4-for-4 last week and leads the league with 30 saves. He gave up one run and raised his ERA to 1.99 on the season. Wilson has added two wins to his very impressive season total.

Grade C

Brad Lidge (Phillies): Lidge finished the week with a 6.00 ERA and it now sits at 4.58 on the year. Even with going 3-for-3 in SVO for the week, Lidge finds himself here for walking five men and giving up two runs.

Grade D

Jose Valverde (Tigers): While his 1.81 ERA and his lone blown save have many fantasy owners impressed, he has just one win on the year with 21 saves. In four appearances last week, Valverde went 2-for-2 but also added his second loss on the year.

Michael Wuertz (Athletics): With regular closer Andrew Bailey day-to-day with a strained back, Wuertz stepped in and did a decent job. The man went 2-for-2 in SVO for the week, but did take an L. He has added to wins this season.

Grade F

Billy Wagner (Braves): Wagner has absolutely been one of the best fantasy baseball closers, however, not this past week. He blew two saves, had a 16.20 ERA and allowed four runs in just 1.2 IP. Still, Wagner has been one of the most valuable closers in baseball; he has five wins and 22 saves on the year.

Bobby Jenks (White Sox): One rule I like to follow in doing the Closer Report , is that if you lose your job you receive an F. Jenks did just that, and although it may be just a move Ozzie Guillen is making to prove a point, Jenks better figure this out. His career could depend on it! He pitched 1.1 IP blew a save and took the loss while allowing two earned and four hits.

Originally Published at www.FantasyBaseballSportal.com

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Long Gone: Ranking MLB’s Top 10 Home Run Hitters

Alex Rodriguez is on the threshold of joining an elite club.

Currently sitting at 599 homers, A-Rod will become one of only seven major league players to ever reach the 600 mark.

At only 34 years old, Rodriguez has a chance to surpass Barry Bonds for the all-time home run lead.

Six of the top 10 sluggers of all-time played for an average of 22 seasons.

In order for Rodriguez, currently in his 17th season, to eclipse Bonds, he will have to average nearly 30 home runs per season over the next five and a half years.

I ranked the top 10 home run hitters based on home runs per season, home runs per at bat, RBI per home run, and strikeout to home run ratio.

Begin Slideshow


The Cardinals-Cubs Rivalry: A Statistical Analysis

Rivalries have always played a huge role in sports, and we all know the fun in rooting against a team we hate.

In the past, rivals have been compared in a number of ways, from who has the best current team to who has won the most championships to who has the best fans.

We at SeatGeek thought it would be interesting to compare rivals based on transactions on the secondary ticket market, which we have found to be a great judge of fan sentiment.

Three weeks ago, we looked at the Mets-Phillies rivalry, and earlier this week we looked at the Giants-Dodgers rivalry. Today, we will be looking at the rivalry between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs.

The first graph shows the average transaction price per month for February through July. The ticket price data is based on the date transacted, not which game the tickets are for, meaning that if a ticket is bought in February for a game in July, the data is part of February’s average.

Cardinals-Cubs Secondary Market Transaction Price/Month

  • Average Cubs ticket prices are greater than Cardinals ticket prices every month, even though the Cardinals have an 11.5-game lead over the Cubs. This could largely be due to the Cubs playing in Chicago, the third largest city in the United States.
  • Once the season started in April, the Cubs’ highest month coincided with the Cardinals’ lowest month, May.

We also thought it would be interesting to track the ticket price changes as a percentage change over time—with February as our base month.

Cardinals-Cubs Ticket Price Comparison

This allows us to compare consumer sentiment fluctuations across different teams on the same scale.

For a simpler example, let’s look at two teams: Team A and Team B. In February, Team A’s tickets are $5 and Team B’s tickets are $30. In June, Team A’s tickets are $10 and Team B’s tickets are $20. That means Team A experienced a 100 percent increase in ticket prices and Team B experienced a 33.3 percent decrease in ticket prices. Therefore:

  • Cardinals tickets purchased in July are 18 percent below the price of tickets transacted in February.
  • Cubs tickets purchased in July are 24 percent below the price of tickets transacted in February.
  • Excluding May, Cardinals and Cubs ticket prices follow a very similar trend.

We will keep you updated. We plan on updating these plots monthly, in addition to looking at other rivalries. Stay tuned.

Be sure to follow us on Twitter @SeatGeekMLB and email max@seatgeek.com with any questions or comments.

This article is also featured on SeatGeek Sports Blog .

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The Giants-Dodgers Rivalry: A Statistical Analysis

Rivalries have always played a huge role in sports, and we all know the fun in rooting against a team we hate.

In the past, rivals have been compared in a number of ways, from who has the best current team to who has won the most championships to who has the best fans.

We at SeatGeek  thought it would be interesting to compare rivals based on transactions on the secondary ticket market, which we have found to be a great judge of fan sentiment .  

Three weeks ago, we looked at the Mets-Phillies rivalry . Today, we will be looking at the rivalry between the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers .

The first graph shows the average transaction price per month for February through July. The ticket price data is based on the date transacted, not which game the tickets are for, meaning that if a ticket is bought in February for a game in July, the data is part of February’s average.

Avg. Secondary Market Transaction Price/Month

  • Average Giants ticket prices are greater than or equal to Dodgers ticket prices every month.
  • July is a very interesting month for the Dodgers. We are not completely sure what was the cause of such an extreme drop. During July, the Dodgers are 6-8 and are currently 5.5 games out of first place, which might have caused fan sentiment to fall and with that, ticket prices.
  • Though this data is based on the transaction date and not the game date, about 40 percent of secondary market tickets for a game are usually bought with a week of the event, and over half are usually bought within two weeks. The fact that our data for July only includes data through July 19th, and so far this month the only teams the Dodgers have played at home are the Cubs and the Marlins (two below .500 teams), could also explain the significant drop in average ticket price.
  • Please comment below with any other ideas you might have regarding the significant drop in Dodgers ticket prices in July.

 

We also thought it would be interesting to track the ticket price changes as a percentage change over time—with February as our base month.

Ticket Price Comparison

This allows us to compare consumer sentiment fluctuations across different teams on the same scale. For a more simple example, lets look at two teams: Team A and Team B.

In February, Team A’s tickets are $5, and Team B’s tickets are $30. In June Team A’s tickets are $10, and Team B’s tickets are $20. That means Team A experienced a 100 percent increase in ticket prices, and Team B experienced a 33.3 percent decrease in ticket prices.

Therefore:

  • Giants tickets purchased in July are 19 percent below the price of tickets transacted in February.
  • Dodgers tickets purchased in July are 49 percent below the price of tickets transacted in February.
  • Up until July, Giants and Dodgers tickets follow an remarkably similar pattern. Prior to July, both teams’ changes in average ticket prices tracked within a 5 percent range of each other.

 

We will keep you updated. We plan on updating these plots monthly in addition to looking at other rivalries. Stay tuned.

Be sure to follow us on Twitter @SeatGeekMLB ,  and email max@seatgeek.com with any questions or comments.

This article is also featured on SeatGeek Sports Blog

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What’s ERA Good For, Anyway?

Have you ever watched a pitcher and wondered if the ERA really is the best measure for a pitcher?  In baseball, numbers rule the game to the nth degree.  There are multiple layers of numbers that describe just about any quality that you can think of.  The statistics range from layperson stats such as batting average and ERA to the more advanced sabermetrics of BABIP, GB and FB rates, and WHIP. 

Of all the statistics that you can look at, why is ERA still relevant?

ERA is the average number of earned runs that a pitcher allows per nine innings of work.  On the surface this seems reasonable, but the deeper you look, the less meaning this stat actually has. 

For example, the more innings that a pitcher pitches in a day, the more susceptible he is to giving up runs.  This puts starting pitchers at an ERA disadvantage compared to relievers because relievers will pitch to fewer batters and have more “gas in the tank” when they face them. 

Starters have to face the same batter multiple times in a game; the second and third time a batter sees a pitcher is when they do the most damage. Relief pitchers have artificially suppressed ERAs they face each batter only once and have more energy to do so. 

Second, rarely do pitchers throw an entire nine innings in a game. So why does it make sense to measure pitchers on how many earned runs they give up over two games?      

I would prefer to have an ERA measure that was calculated as earned runs per inning pitched.  This way it makes no difference how many innings a pitcher throws to compare any two pitchers regardless of their roles. 

Going one step further, I would like to see an ERA that is defense-independent: Not all pitchers have a good defense behind them and that should not affect their ratings.

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Are The Mets Destined For Another World Series Visit?

Please be sure to check out Mets Paradise and our forum for everything Mets!

The Mets start the second half of the season in a good position to reach the playoffs. There’s still a cloud of uncertainty hanging around the team, but that doesn’t mean they can’t do some serious damage. Don’t believe me? Look at some similarities to the last Mets team make the World Series:

  • Jeff Franceour = Derrek Bell : Bell had a fantastic April, and then disappeared afterwards, and lost playing time because of it. Franceour also had a fantastic April, and then much like Bell disappeared afterwards, and is going to lose playing time because of it, like Bell did.
  • Mike Pelfrey = Al Leiter :  Although Leiter was seond in the rotation he pitched like an ace, and so far Pelfrey has done the same.
  • Johan Santana = Mike Hampton : Hampton started the season unexpectedly bad, and turned it around in the second half. Santana also started the season unexpectedly bad, and has started to turn it around. Can Santana continue to turn it around like Hampton did in 2000? Santana has a history of being a second half pitcher.
  • Glendon Rusch/Bobby Jones = R.A. Dickey : Rusch and Jones solidified the back end of the rotation, a rotation that looked questionable after the third slot. Dickey has done much the same in a rotation that looked questionable after the third spot in the rotation Dickey has stepped in and solidified the fourth spot in the rotation.  Will the Mets acquire a started to push back Jon Niese and Dickey, and solidify the back end of the rotation like Rusch and Jones did in 2000?
  • Mike Piazza = David Wright : Piazza ended 2000 with 38 HR’s 113 RBI’s and a batting average of .324. Wright is on pace for 26 HR’s 120 RBI’s with a .314 batting average.
  • Todd Zeile = Ike Davis : Zeile ended 2000 with 22 HR’s and 79 RBI’s. Davis is on pace for 22 HR’s and 79 RBI’s.
  • Armando Benitez = Francisco Rodriguez : No explanation necessary.

Read the rest….

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Fantasy Baseball’s Post All-Star Break Positional Ranks: Catchers

What do Craig Biggio, Pablo Sandoval, and Neil Walker have in common? All three saw a significant amount of time behind the plate in the minors but found new positions in the big leagues.

The trend of moving young catchers to other positions because of their defensive deficiencies behind the plate or to increase longevity has left fantasy owners with a diluted pool of catchers from which to choose. 

The rankings that follow are designed to help you get as much value as possible at the shallowest position in the game. All percentage of ownership numbers are from ESPN Fantasy Baseball leagues. Stats through 7/18/2010.


Tier One

Joe Mauer (100 percent owned)- Mauer owners might have expected a decrease in power numbers this season (28 HR, .587 SLG in 2009 and just 4 HR, .433 SLG in 2010), but few could have expected his on-base percentage (.372) to fall to what it was in his first full season in the majors. 

The power outage can be explained by the fact that about one out of every five Mauer fly balls left the yard last year while only about one out of every 20 is leaving the yard this year.  As for the on-base percentage, Mauer is simply chasing more balls outside of the strike zone. 

 

All that said, only Miguel Olivo was better than Mauer in the first half, so Mauer must still be considered the top option at catcher. 

Brian McCann (100 percent owned)- McCann provides great value at the catcher position, not only because he produces, but because he produces consistently. His home run totals the last four seasons are 24, 18, 23, 21, and he is on pace to finish this season in that range.  Although McCann is currently hitting .270, he is a career .291 hitter, and it is entirely possible he finishes the season close to that mark.

Buster Posey (96.2 percent owned)- Since his call-up on May 29, all Posey has done in 145 at-bats is hit .352 with 7 HR, 23 R and 26 RBI.  If you scale those numbers out to a full 162-game season, he would be on pace for 28 HR, 93 R, and 105 RBI. Sure, you are likely to see some regression from the young hitter, but to this point, Posey has done nothing but prove that he is the real deal.

Carlos Santana (92 percent owned)- In 125 big league plate appearances, Santana has walked a very impressive 25 times.  Add the fact that he has only swung at 22.1 percent of pitches out of the strike zone, and it looks like the kid who might now be the best athlete in Cleveland has the ability to succeed against big league pitching.

 

Tier Two 

Miguel Montero (78.8 percent owned)- Chris Snyder is cutting into Montero’s playing time a bit, but Montero is hitting .308 since his return from the DL after hitting .294 with 16 homers last season. 

Kurt Suzuki (50.3 percent owned)- Suzuki is basically a poor man’s Brian McCann. He has just a little less power, will probably end the year 15 to 20 points behind McCann in average, and trails McCann in counting numbers (R, RBI) simply because he hits in a weaker lineup. 

 

 

 

Geovany Soto (59.8 percent owned)- Lately, Soto has been ceding less time to Koyie Hill than he was earlier in the year.  That is probably because he is hitting more like Geovany Soto circa 2008.  In the last 30 days, Soto is hitting .309 with 4 HR, 8 R, and 15 RBI. 

 

 

 

Miguel Olivo (90.4 percent owned)- So many things point to a significant Olivo regression in the second half.  He is currently hitting .325, but he has never hit better than .263 in his career.

He also has a BABIP of .396 (Batting Average on Balls In Play; generally, above .300 means a hitter has been lucky, and below .300 means a hitter has been unlucky). However, no other catcher has been better to this point, so it may be worth it to try and ride the hot bat. 


 

Tier Three

 

 

 

Matt Wieters (49.9 percent owned)- My Wieters man-love knows no bounds, but he was one of the bigger disappointments of the first half and is likely to miss a week’s worth of games in the second half.  If you still believe, go ahead and stick with him, but you might be wise to temper your expectations.

 

 

 

Victor Martinez (100 percent owned)- If he were healthy, Martinez would undoubtedly be a top-five catcher option the rest of the way.  However, he has only recently become able to squeeze a baseball without feeling soreness in his thumb.

There is just too much uncertainty about how much time V-Mart will miss in the second half for him to be considered the elite fantasy option that he usually is.

 

 

 

Mike Napoli (79 percent owned)- The sub .250 average is not ideal, but at the end of the day, you know Napoli is going to hit for power as he averages a home run every 17 at-bats for his career.

 

 

 

John Buck (42 percent owned)- Buck’s 2010 numbers look great: .272, 13 HR, 27 R, 41 RBI.  The problem is that in the last 30 days Buck has only contributed 1 HR, 3 R, and 6 RBI to those season totals. 

 

Tier Four

 

Bengie Molina (35.3 percent owned)– The move to Texas has to make Bengie more valuable.

 

 

 

Jorge Posada (92.4 percent owned)– Yeah, he is healthy now, but how long is that going to last?

 

 

 

Ryan Doumit (59.8 percent owned)– Doumit may lose some playing time because he has been abysmal defensively.  His caught stealing percentage is easily the worst in the league, and he leads the league in passed balls.  However, as long as he keeps hitting while he is back there, Doumit is a viable fantasy option.

 

 

 

A.J. Pierzynski (9.3 percent owned)– To date, Pierzynski’s BABIP is fairly low (.245), and he is striking out less than he has in previous years.  There seems to be some potential for a better second half.

 

 

 

Tier Five

 

 

 

Russell Martin (58.6 percent owned)– Martin has no business even being discussed as ownable in a 10-team league, but in deeper formats, he has value simply because he plays alm ost every day.  Among catchers, he ranks third in at-bats behind Jason Kendall and Mauer.

 

 

 

Jason Kendall (7.4 percent owned)– To reiterate, Jason Kendall leads the league in at-bats with 309. Add his .269 average and six steals, and it is clear that Kendall is a nice option in deeper league and AL-only formats.

 

 

 

Jonathan Lucroy (0.1 percent owned)– Lucroy is likely to receive the majority of the playing time in the second half for the Brewers, and he is hitting a respectable .280 with two homers and two steals so far this season.

 

 

 

Chris Ianetta (2.9 percent owned)– Ianetta could see increased playing time if Miguel Olivo does actually regress. His ISO (Isolated Power measures a hitter’s raw power based on his ability to get extra base hits) indicates that if he does see more ABs, he might be able to do some serious damage with them.

 

Just missed the cut: John Jaso (1.7 percent owned)

 

Agree or Disagree with the rankings? Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix.

 

Article written by Brett Talley exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com

For more fantasy sports advice, analysis & projections, visit TheFantasyFix.com

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Subjectivity Objectified: Measuring MLB Fans’ Biases With All-Star Votes

It doesn’t take a hardcore sabermetrician to realize that the All-Star vote is a sham. After all, the best catcher in the game (Miguel Olivo) received only the 11th-most votes at his position, and Omar Infante made the cut while MVP candidate Ryan Zimmerman had to sit at home (not the fans’ fault, but still). 

But even if it’s impossible to distinguish the game’s best players by looking at the vote totals, I wondered if it would be possible to gather some more unorthodox information from the results: namely, the impact of fans’ biases on their ballots.

I quickly scratched out an equation for a statistic I made up, called “All-Star Score,” to measure how deserving a player is of fans’ votes for the Midsummer Classic:

All-Star Score = (Wins Above Replacement* + 2) ^ 2

*—numbers as of the All-Star Game

I calculated the All-Star Scores for each player listed on the ballot and added them together. I then added up the total All-Star votes cast (Major League Baseball releases the vote totals for only the Top 25 outfielders and Top 8 vote-getters at other positions per league, so I used 300,000 as a baseline for those players whose results were not available) and divided that by the composite All-Star Score to find out what the average All-Star Score Point was worth (just under 74,000 votes).

Finally, I calculated the votes-per-All-Star Score Points ratios for each team, then divided that by the league average to get an estimate of what proportion of votes each team’s players got relative to what they deserved. The numbers below show each team’s relative figure as a percentage—a “Bias Score” of 100 would mean the team received exactly the right amount of support (of course, no club came out at 100).

I’m fully aware of the flaws in my experiment: the statistics used were compiled after the voting, not during it; I’m sure my 300,000-vote estimate for the lower-tier players is extremely generous to some and a big low-ball to others; and, of course, there’s no guarantee that my little equation represents the ideal proportion of All-Star votes a candidate should receive.

Nonetheless, I think the results are both telling and interesting.

 

Tier 1: The Unloved (79 and below)

1 White Sox 47
2 Royals 47
3 Athletics 48
4 Padres 49
5 Giants 50
6 Cubs 56
7 D-Backs 57
8 Blue Jays 59
9 Indians 59
10 Nationals 59
11 Orioles 60
12 Rockies 66

If you look at the vote totals, seeing the Royals and A’s at the top of the list shouldn’t come as a surprise—they’re two of the three miserable teams that didn’t get a single player on the voting leaderboards.

Meanwhile, the starting nine for the Orioles—the only other club to be completely neglected—have been so bad that Baltimore landed in the middle third of the Bias Scores despite having the absolute minimum number of votes. Ouch.

It’s no surprise to see struggling teams like the Indians and Diamondbacks fall this low, but I would have expected Padres, Blue Jays, and Nationals fans to show their favorite players a little more love in light of their teams’ expectations-beating early performances. And I’m shocked that the Rockies haven’t been able to generate more excitement, what with their recent string of comeback wins in playoff races.

However, I’d say the biggest upsets here are the teams from Chicago—particularly the Cubs. North Side fans have a reputation of being among the most loyal and passionate in baseball (after more than a century without a championship, they’d have to be). It’s a telling sign that something is very wrong in Wrigleyville.

 

Tier 2: The Average (80 to 120)

13 Marlins 80
14 Pirates 81
15 Reds 84
16 Red Sox 90
17 Astros 102
18 Mariners 114
19 Rangers 120

 

The first team that jumps out at you here is Boston—how can Red Sox Nation be classified as a relatively unbiased fanbase? Take a look at the leaderboards and it becomes clear.

Adrian Beltre finished behind Michael Young, Kevin Youkilis got barely half the votes of scuffling Mark Teixeira, even local hero David Ortiz fell behind the anemic Hideki Matsui. Derek Jeter has been better than Marco Scutaro, fine, but does he really deserve six times as many votes?

Two teams in this grouping redefine pathetic. A 20th-place finish for Andrew McCutchen is enough to put the Pirates squarely in the middle of the pack because their eight candidates have combined to be of less value than Dan Uggla.

Astros fans, meanwhile, turn out to have a positive bias because of Lance Berkman’s eighth-place finish at first base. That’s what happens when your team has a negative composite WAR .

The two AL West teams are both interesting cases. The Mariners don’t have much of a reputation for a strong fan base, but people love Ichiro and the now-retired Ken Griffey Jr. raked in over a million votes.

Given that the Rangers have the third-highest team vote total in the game, you might expect them to have a far higher Bias Score. But you might not realize that Texas also has the third-highest composite WAR.

 

Tier 3: The Coddled (121-150)

20 Tigers 126
21 Angels 129
22 Dodgers 129
23 Cardinals 134
24 Brewers 138
25 Mets 146

 

Most of these names were pretty predictable. The Brewers are probably the most surprising team to be ranked this far up. Their high score is entirely the fault of Ryan Braun, who led all outfielders with just under 3 million votes despite a significant offensive dropoff and horrific defense, even by his standards.

 

Tier 4: The Overindulgent (151-190)

26 Braves 159
27 Rays 163
28 Twins 171
29 Phillies 181

Eight years ago, the Twins were on the verge of falling victim to contraction. Three years ago, the Rays had never finished a season with more than 70 wins. If you’d said then that both teams would soon have some of the most passionate fans in baseball, you would have been laughed out of the room.

 

Tier 5: The Insane (191 and up)

30 Yankees 199

 

I’m sure some commenter will accuse me of writing this article for the sole purpose of blasting the Yankees. I’ll say here for the first and only time that, while their coming out on top was somewhat predictable, this is just how it happened.

Just look at the vote totals. A-Rod over Beltre two-to-one, Curtis Granderson over Alex Rios by a nearly three-to-one margin, Teixeira over Paul Konerko almost five-to-one, Jeter over Cliff Pennington by over 10-to-one . Is there any logical explanation for that? And this isn’t even taking into consideration Nick Swisher’s Final Vote victory over Youkilis.

I’ll be the first to admit that this isn’t a definitive study—the rankings would surely be shuffled around if the full, precise vote totals were available (especially towards the lower end), and I don’t think anyone believes for a second that fans in Houston are more loyal than their counterparts in Boston.

But I still think the results are somewhat telling, so in the future, fans in Minnesota and Wisconsin might want to think twice before complaining about East Coast bias.

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