Tag: Stats

2010 MLB All-Star Game Update from Anaheim, California

The MLB All-Star Game is a great opportunity for fans to watch some of the best players in all of baseball take the field, pitting the National League against the American League for home field advantage in the World Series.

This year, the game takes place at Angels Stadium in Anaheim, California.

Given the amount of baseball superstars on the rosters for the game, ticket demand for the events is high. Tickets are sold out, and the only place to grab a seat is on the secondary market.

The All-Star weekend consists of three events: All-Star Sunday  (the Futures Game and the Celebrity/Legends softball game), the Home Run Derby , and the All-Star Game . Fans can choose to buy tickets for one (or more) of the events individually, or they can buy the All-Star Package , which gives them access to all three events.

Not surprisingly, transaction prices for All-Star Package tickets are the highest, followed by All-Star Game tickets, Home Run Derby tickets (which includes the All-Star workout), and then All-Star Sunday tickets.

MLB All-Star Game Ticket Prices on SeatGeek

The All-Star Game is a once a year can’t miss spectacle, which is sure to be exciting as always in 2010. Be sure to check out SeatGeek  for all of your All-Star Game, MLB  and sold out ticket needs. Also, don’t forget to email justin@seatgeek.com with any questions, and follow us on Facebook  and Twitter  @SeatGeek!

This article is also featured on SeatGeek Sports Blog

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Home Run Derby: Why the Biggest Sluggers Have Nothing To Worry About

It is clear that some baseball players refuse to participate in the Home Run Derby because they are afraid of the negative impact it will have on their swing during the second half of the season.

Clearly, guys like Alex Rodriguez, who are paranoid, and even players who have experienced negative results like David Wright and Bobby Abreu are off-base.

For there is no apparent correlation between participation in MLB’s signature event and future results.

The Hardball Times did a study last July, using projections rather than actual second-half performance as the parameter of the study.

The reason they used projections, as opposed to actual results, is very reasonable.

For one thing, if a player over-performs his true talent level in the first half, he stands a better chance of being selected to the Derby.

Naturally, if he is over-performing, he is likely to face a regression to his true talent level in the second half of the season.

Based on their expected Marcel projections, the Home Run Derby hitters seemed to outperform their preseason Marcels every year except 2008, 2004, and 2002 (though the latter two only showed small differences).

In other words, it doesn’t look like derby participants play any worse in the second half of the season (on the whole). If you’re looking for the results in terms of percentages, 57 percent of derby participants outperform their projections in the second half.

Another theory might be that players who last longer in the Derby or hit more home runs during it are more likely to decline.

Yet the study done by THT says that no matter how long a hitter lasts or how many home runs he hits, there is still no sign of a second-half decline.

So why do some hitters continue to be afraid to participate?

Well, for one thing, because the 50 percent mark often occurs a couple weeks before the All-Star Break, “first half” totals can look inflated if compared directly to “second half” totals.

Also, the 2008 results are recent and fresh in everyone’s memory.

But perhaps the best explanation for why the fear continues is that once players start talking and complaining, it makes other players less likely to want to participate and draws more attention to the situation, creating a snowball effect.

So while the conventional wisdom might support sluggers who refuse to participate in the derby due to fear of negative results, the data simply does not agree.

If only perception wasn’t reality, we might see the A-Rods participating in the Home Run Derby.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Midseason Ticket Report: American League Central Division

Yesterday, we at SeatGeek begin our Midseason Ticket Report series by looking at the American League East . Today, we will be analyzing the American League Central. We will be using three metrics: 1) Average transaction price per team versus average percent of face value per team 2) the top ten games in the AL Central, as determined by average transaction price on the secondary market 3) the top three games for each team in the AL Central.

Average Ticket Price - American League Central Though the Tigers are in first place, the Twins are selling for an average of 198 percent of face value compared to the Tigers whose tickets are selling for an average of just 131 percent of face value. This could be partially due to the Twins playing in a new stadium, Target Field.

The last place Indians tickets are selling for a higher average percent of face value than the 4th place Royals , 127 percent to 121 percent.

Top 10 Most Expensive AL Central Games The most expensive game was opening day for the Twins at their new field against the Red Sox . Incredibly, this game went for an average of 48 percent more than the next most expensive game in the AL Central.

The White Sox are the home team in 5 of these games and play in 6 of them. No surprise that these games are against the Yankees and the White Sox’s crosstown rivals, the Cubs .

Top 3 Home Games Per Team - American League Central

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

10 of the 15 top home games are games against the Yankees . This shows how large of a draw the Yankees are on the road.

The only team to not have the Yankees in their top 3 was the Twins, who were swept out of the playoffs last year by the Yankees. Maybe fans are avoiding them?

Be sure to check back with SeatGeek for the rest of our MLB midseason reports. Next up is the American League West.

Also be sure to follow us on Twitter @SeatGeekMLB  and email max@seatgeek.com with any questions or comments.

This article is also featured on SeatGeek Blog

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Midseason Ticket Report – American League Eastern Division

At the end of June, SeatGeek released their MLB power rankings ticket price edition. In that article we take a look at how each teams’ tickets were transacting on the secondary market, and we promised a more comprehensive report to come. Throughout this week, up to the All-Star break, we will be giving you those updates, division by division.

For each division, we are going to share the top ten games per division, as determined by average transaction price on the secondary market, as well as the top three games for each team in the division.

We are beginning this midseason evaluation with the American League Eastern Division, taking a look at ticket sales for the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, and Baltimore Orioles.

As noted in the power rankings, Red Sox tickets are currently transacting at the highest average on the secondary market, despite that the Yankees have the best record in baseball. The Yankees average ticket transactions are a close third.

As expected, the Red Sox top three games are more expensive than anyone else’s top three games. Following the Sox are the Yankees, RaysBlue Jays and Orioles, respectively.

AL East Average Ticket Prices on SeatGeek

It is also not surprising that Yankees vs. Red Sox games make up most of the top ten games for the AL East. Given the rivalry, as well as the success of both teams, we have come to expect that tickets for their games, and especially their games against each other will be quite a bit more expensive on the secondary ticket market.

Interestingly, out of the top ten games for the AL East, half have occurred before the All-Star break, whereas the other half have yet to occur yet. Undoubtedly, there are numerous can’t miss events that are happening in the future that fans need to grab their tickets for now.

One of the most notable events is the series between the Yankees and Red Sox that takes place from October 1st to October 3rd in Boston. Not only is it the last Yankees-Red Sox matchup in the season, but it’s also the last series of the season. Both teams expect to be in a playoff race come October, and those last games should be exciting. As a result, two of the three games are in the top ten for the AL East, and as a whole, the series’ average transaction prices is $157.

Opening Day was popular on the secondary market, as well. Red Sox tickets for the season and home opener against the Yankees on April 4 transacted at $153, while tickets for the Yankees’ home opener on April 13 were $140. Interestingly, for the Rays, Blue Jays and Orioles, fans were generally willing to pay more for to see the Yankees than the Red Sox, despite that Red Sox tickets at Fenway Park transacted for the most in the MLB.

AL East Ticket Prices from SeatGeek

Be sure to check back with SeatGeek for the rest of our MLB midseason reports. Next up is the American League Central.

As always, if there are any questions, feel free to email justin@seatgeek.com, and don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @SeatGeek.

This article is also featured on SeatGeek Blog

 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Toronto Blue Jays: How They Will Hit in the Second Half

With the season’s true mid point having passed this week and its unofficial end to the first half looming with next week’s All-Star break, the timing couldn’t be better to project how the Blue Jays will perform from here on out. With several unexpected offensive performances, both good and bad, this process will be closer to guessing than projecting.

FanGraphs ‘ ZiPS rest of season projection for each player will be shown, along with some analysis and a revised projection (better known as guesswork) based on hunches, the plausibility of certain trends continuing for another eighty games and deep inner thoughts (guessing). This type of writing lends itself to agreements and disagreements— be sure to kindly share some of your own below. Keep in mind ISO will be used in place of slugging percentage for the triple-slash lines.

Aaron Hill Rest of Season ZiPS: .219(BA)/.292(OBP)/.169(ISO) 21 HR

Always best to start with the worst and work on up. Sadly, Hill’s 2010 has been unfathomably bad after last season’s breakout year. Through 297 plate appearances he’s hitting just .189 thanks to a .183 BABIP , both a direct result of his incredibly low 8.5 percent line drive rate on balls in play. The only thing saving him from complete offensive ineptitude is a career high 9.4 percent walk rate and decent .166 isolated power.

The walk rate has fallen each month from April to June, taking his OBP with it. In each of the season’s three months, he’s failed to hit over .200 or have a BABIP over .200. There is almost no sign of a rebound, save this for his track record coming into the year.

Rest of Season RPGW(Revised Projection Guess Work): .225/.298/.165 22 HR

Adam Lind RoS ZiPS: .230/.291/.169 22 HR

If this was going in alphabetical order you’d see Adam second on this list, too. But he’s second here because he’s been equally as bad as Hill but has no injury excuse to partially blame. When ZiPS projects the DH who recently signed a long term deal to put up the above numbers, there is cause for concern. It’s also warranted siince Lind has had his worst ISO of his career to this point at just .146. The .205 batting average and ten homers doesn’t help inspire much confidence either.

Like Hill, it wasn’t reasonable to expect Lind to duplicate his outstanding 2009, but the drop off has been stunning. June saw Lind hit rock bottom with a .208 wOBA. However, he did have a nice 22 percent line drive rate for the month. He also had one month, April, of above average production. One more than Hill.

RoS RPGW: .240/.320/.162 23 HR

Lyle Overbay RoS ZiPS: .245/.327/.155 15 HR

Almost through the disappointing performances. Overbay’s rough season has been easier to handle for Jays fans because he’s most likely gone after this season—or any day now, and there is a top prospect waiting in the wings to take his job.

He’s also bounced back from his poor start, hitting for a higher average and raising his wOBA each month of the season through June. He hit .282 with a 12.2 percent walk rate last month. He’s continued to hit righties well posting a .337 wOBA against them this season. He might not be here for long, but the bounce back should help his trade value.

RoS RPGW: .260/.360/.150 13 HR

Fred Lewis RoS ZiPS: .273/.336/.152 34 DB 12 SB

The first pleasant surprise on the list is Fred Lewis, he was a late addition to the roster and has been productive with Travis Snider on the DL. Cast off by the San Francisco Giants, Lewis has bounced back from a disappointing 2009. 

He’s done a little bit of everything at the plate for the Jays collecting 21 doubles, seven steals in ten attempts, walking 7.4 percent of the time and hitting .277. Expect more of the same, and a few more walks from Lewis in the second half.

RoS RPGW: .271/.350/.157 38 DB 14 SB

Alex Gonzalez RoS ZiPS: .250/.293/.200 22 HR

Gonzalez started off the season with a thunderous, homer fueled, .404 wOBA quickly helping to ease the loss of Marco Scutaro. He then promptly came back to earth with a .305 wOBA in May and then another solid offensive month with June’s .326.

With his slick defense, any offensive barrage is a bonus for the Jays. ZiPS projection is more or less in line with his current OBP and batting average but isn’t buying his current .225 isolated power. Not going to buy it below either as Gonzo hasn’t had an ISO over .200 in a full season, ever. But he should still be able to pop more than just the seven homers ZiPS is projecting the rest of the season.

RoS RPGW: .257/.298/.195 24 HR

John Buck RoS ZiPS: .260/.305/.229 22 HR

Another pleasant surprise from an off-season acquisition who was primarily brought in as a veteran place holder for J.P. Arencibia. Buck’s done just that and even picked up an All-Star invite too. He’s hitting for a career high .274 which he’s also ruining with a career low 3.8 percent walk rate. Buck has always had power posting a full season ISO over .200 twice including 2009’s .237.

Look for him to drift back towards his career .239 batting average and 6.8 percent walk rate and keeping the power on as long as he’s in Toronto.

RoS RPGW: .248/.300/.224 25 HR

Vernon Wells RoS ZiPS: .270/.324/.239 30 HR 41 DB

The resurgence of Wells at the plate isn’t too hard to believe if you overlook last year’s injury riddled campaign. Wells already has 19 homers and 24 doubles while hitting .274 with a .328 OBP. His .373 wOBA would be the third best of his career if it held up ’til seasons end.

His wOBA has fallen each month from April’s .469 to June’s .338. If he stays healthy Wells numbers should fall somewhere in between those two and he should have his first 30 homer season since 2006.

RoS RPGW: .272/.330/.245 33 HR 40 DB

Jose Bautista RoS ZiPS: .234/.351/.254 31 HR 29 DB

Plenty has been written about Bautista’s surprise season already. That’ll happen when you hit 21 homers in the first half of the season after never totaling more than 16 in a full season. Bautista certainly has made the most of his full-time playing status.

His prodigious power and superb 14.6 percent walk rate have more than offset his .236 batting average. The power is a surprise but the walk rate isn’t all that much higher than 2009’s 13.9 or his career mark of 11.3. ZiPS projected Bautista for a .200 ISO before the season but he’s at .296 right now. It’s unlikely Bautista can hit 40 homers but he should come awfully close.

RoS RPGW: .238/.356/.262 35 HR 29 DB

The soon to be infamous RPGW system will return both later this week for a look at the Jays pitching staff and the end of the season.

(The ZiPS projections are from FanGraphs.com, great site that makes articles like this possible)

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Undeserving 2010 MLB All-Stars and Notable Snubs

With the MLB All-Star break coming up soon, I decided that I would tell my opinion of this year’s All-Stars and take a break from my usual NBA talk.

Of course, we all have our opinions of who should be an All-Star and who shouldn’t be, and usually we give arguments for players from our favorite teams. For example, my Angels (the host of this season’s All-Star events) only have one All-Star this season.

In this slideshow you will see several players who I believe were undeserving of a vote based off of this season’s stats. You will also hear about several players who were surprisingly snubbed from this season’s Midsummer Classic.

So here we go……………(I will start with my undeserving AL stars)

Begin Slideshow


Joey Votto Makes a Statement vs. New York Mets, Proves He Is an All-Star

I’ve been extremely vocal about my hatred of the All-Star Game selection rules, and the actual selections (I wrote an article about what the rosters should be , and who we must vote for in the Final Vote ).

I’ve been most frustrated about the fact that Joey Votto is left off the team.

I was glad to see, however, that after 24 hours since the Final Vote began, Votto was leading vote-getter in the NL, meaning he would be named to the All-Star team if voting had ended today. Voting, though, ends Thursday.

But fortunately for Votto, his performance Monday night versus the New York Mets was a statement game, in the Reds’ 8-6 win.

Votto went 3-4 with a double, 2 RBI, 3 runs, and two HRs, including one moonshot into the Big Apple’s box out in straight away center field at Citi Field and one bomb over the 415 sign in the deepest part of the park in right-center field (and a foul ball that was two feet from being his third of the game).

If his performance doesn’t scream, “I’m an All-Star,” just days after being one of the biggest snubs in MLB history, I don’t know what does.

As a Mets fan, I was fortunate enough to be able to watch the game live, and listen to the commentary from Gary Cohen and Keith Hernandez about Votto’s exclusion.

Cohen was very adamant in his belief that Votto deserved a roster spot over Ryan Howard, who was Phillies manager Charlie Manuel’s selection, and I agree.

While it goes as no surprise that Manuel chose his own player, Votto should not have to suffer.

During the broadcast, I also learned that Votto was the only player with his caliber statistics to not be named to the roster in NL history (and it only happened once in AL history, in 1966).

While I can’t quite remember everything that was said, I believe it was that no player who is in the top five in the NL in HR, RBI, average, OBP, slugging, and OPS has never not been an All-Star.

Until Votto.

Don’t quote me on that, by the way. If anyone knows what was actually said, please let me know!

Here’s Votto’s stats as of July 5th, with his rank in the NL in parenthesis:

.318 AVG (T-3rd)

21 HR (1st)

59 RBI (T-4th)

56 runs (T-3rd)

.422 OBP (1st),

.595 SLG (1st)

 1.017 OPS (1st). 

Those are MVP caliber numbers. Yes, MVP.

And he’s not even an All-Star (yet).

Interestingly, there has been at least one time in MLB history where the MVP was not an All-Star. Willie Stargell did not make the cut for the Midsummer Classic, but was co-MVP with Keith Hernandez in 1979.

By this point, it’s well known that Votto deserves to be in the All-Star Game. The only thing we can do is vote him in through the Final Vote.

So before Thursday, go to MLB.com and VOTE VOTTO!

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Oakland A’s Pitcher Trevor Cahill’s Dramatic Improvement

It was pretty well known around here last season that I was not a fan of A’s righthander Trevor Cahill.

That wasn’t so much because I didn’t think the former top prospect had great potential. It was more due to the fact that Cahill wasn’t performing well and had completely ditched his best pitch, a big curveball.

Cahill throws five pitches: a four-seamer in the low-90’s, a two-seamer around 90 with unbelievable movement, a low-80’s changeup with excellent movement, the big curve, and a slider.

Last season, he essentially became a two-pitch pitcher, using the two-seam fastball and the changeup.

It didn’t work.

Cahill had a respectable 4.63 ERA, but his FIP was 5.33, he struck out just 90 batters, and he allowed a horrific 27 homers. 

Cahill’s struggles showed one thing: major league hitters can hit pitches with excellent movement if they know the ball is simply going to move down and to the right each pitch. Cahill didn’t understand that, and he just went fastball-changeup. He used his two breaking pitches just 10% of the time combined, and decreased their usage as the season went on.

Cahill entered the 2010 spring with a lot to prove. I was hoping he’d rededicate himself to his curveball, which scouts had praised as his best pitch while he was in the minors. I figured his hesitancy to throw the curve (just 2.7% usage in 2009) was the reason for his ineffectiveness.

Instead, Cahill announced that he had ditched his old curveball entirely and was working on a new curveball with a different grip.

Groan.

Cahill spent the spring trying to work on the pitch, but couldn’t do enough to win a rotation spot over five more deserving pitchers. He was on the DL to open the year and went to Triple-A when he was healthy.

Soon enough, after just two starts there, the injury bug hit the A’s, and they recalled Cahill.

Hoping to see this new curve in action, I was checking the pitch classifications for each pitch he threw in his first start.

He threw two curves and was was terrible as usual, allowing eight runs (six earned) in five innings, three homers allowed, and just three strikeouts.

In the next game, Cahill threw just three curves, and gutted through five decent innings.

His third outing saw five curves, and 5 2/3 passable innings.

And then, in his fourth start, Cahill unleashed the pitch, throwing it eighteen times. That start was his first quality start of the year, seven strong innings against the Angels on May 16.

Ever since then, Cahill’s been throwing the curve 10-20 times a game. He uses it once every eight or nine pitches.

Trevor Cahill is 8-2 with a 2.74 ERA.

The new curve Cahill throws has four more inches of vertical break and 4.5 more of horizontal break than the old one, so it certainly looks like a wise decision to go to this version.

More importantly, however, the curve, along with a revamped, bigger slider give Cahill weapons that break to the left. Batters can no longer sit on the two-seamer/changeup combo because the curve and slider are very good pitches. 

So the big change in his performance is not that the curve functions as Cahill’s out pitch (although it can), it’s that it makes his fastball and changeup better out pitches.

His strikeout rate has shot up over 1.5 K/9 to a passable 6.15, way up from the abysmal 4.53 of last season. Cahill’s increased fastball effectiveness has contributed to an increase in his groundball rate as well. He now generates grounders on 54.3% of opposing contact, up from 47.8% last year. He’s also allowed just five homers in his last 77 innings after allowing 27 last year and three in his first start this season.

Finally, Trevor Cahill has arrived. And thankfully, he’s got more than two pitches.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Toronto Blue Jays: Statistical Position-by-Position Analysis

As we approach the middle of the season and the All-Star break, I thought it would be a good idea to see how our position players stack up against the rest of the league.

To be eligible for the batting average and on-base percentage category, a player must have 175 at-bats or more up to this point in the season.

The Jays have had some surprises from players like Jose Bautista, John Buck, and Alex Gonzalez, so it will be interesting to see how they stack up against others at their positions.

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Doc’s Digits: Roy Halladay’s 10 Most Impressive Statistics Of 2010

Even though his win-loss record through 17 starts in 2010 is just 9-7, Roy Halladay is having one hell of a season. Hopefully that will be a little more clear after looking through this slide.

By the way, he’s more than twice as deserving of a spot on the NL All-Star Team than Jamie Moyer.

Begin Slideshow


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