Kuzul

Preseason predictions rarely mean very much in any sport—rarely do professional sports teams play exactly the way they “should” on paper.

This year, some of Major League Baseball’s most unlikely suspects have emerged from the depths of their divisions to challenge standing powerhouses for spots in the playoffs.

Granted, the MLB season is long—162 games long. Things fluctuate throughout: The Yankees drop to third in the standings, rise back to first; the Cardinals yield first place for a few days, gain it back, lose it, win it again—overall, the entire season is a roller coaster.

Although there is no telling which teams will be at the top of their divisions at the end of the season, there is some validity in scratching your head when you see a few teams currently leading or strongly competing for their divisions.

Here is a brief analysis of those teams.

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This is the third installment of what I hope is going to be a bi-monthly article updating fans on the Toronto Blue Jays ‘ minor league teams and prospects. A new one should be available every second Thursday.

Las Vegas 51’s (AAA) —(37-43, Third in PCL Pacific South Division)

The 51’s remain in the same place they were as of last update. Pitching is still a huge problem, while the offense has been firing on all cylinders since day one of the 2010 season.

Catcher JP Arencibia (pictured), has been on an absolute tear this past couple of months, raising his average from a .266 to .308 and hitting 15 home runs for a season total of 18.

Brett Wallace has been able to rebound from a bad slump he had in late May/early June and is hitting at a .301 clip with 14 home runs, three of those in his last nine games after suffering through a prolonged power outage.

Third baseman Edwin Encarnacion has been tearing it up in Las Vegas since being sent down by the Toronto Blue Jays for poor performance. He is currently hitting .438 with three home runs and 13 RBI’s, although in limited at bats.

Jarrett Hoffpauir , Luis Figueroa , and Jesus Merchan are all also hitting well above .300 with good power. Brian Dopirak has been able to rebound from a terrible start, now hitting .275 with eight home runs.

Reidier Gonzalez has continued to be knocked around, sporting a 9.18 ERA in 16 starts, although he still has a 6-6 record. Lance Broadway (2-7, 6.83 ERA) and Mark Rzepczynski (4-3, 6.66 ERA) have only been marginally better.

The 51’s best starting pitcher so far has been lefty Brad Mills , who has a 4.67 ERA to go along with a 4-4 record in 13 starts. Jeremy Accardo (21.2 IP, 2.91 ERA) and Sean Henn (49.1 IP, 1.82 ERA) have been the go to guys in the bullpen.

New Hampshire Fisher Cats (AA) —(47-32, Second in EAS Northern Division)

Despite a paltry .193 average down at Dunedin, Adeiny Hechavarria has been promoted to play shortstop for the Fisher Cats and has participated in two games so far.

The Fisher Cats have been able to maintain there high level of play because they have been getting contributions from many different sources. Manny Mayorson (.316 AVG, .376 OBP), Darin Mastroianni (.300 AVG, .394 OBP) and Brian Jeroloman (.289 AVG, .449 OBP) have all been able to get on base a lot to set up great run scoring opportunities for the big bats on the Cats roster.

Shawn Bowman (12 HR, 39 RBI), Eric Thames (12 HR, 54 RBI), and David Cooper (11 HR, 41 RBI) have been able to make the most out of the Fisher Cats run scoring opportunities.

Kyle Drabek has continued to pitch well with a 7-8 record and 3.49 ERA in 98 innings pitched, although his strikeouts are down considerably. Zach Stewart (6-2, 4.54 ERA) and Luis Perez (5-6, 4.54 ERA) have also pitched well this season.

The bullpen has gotten great seasons from many pitchers including: Trystan Magnuson (2.30 ERA, 43 IP), Tim Collins (2.77 ERA, 39 IP), and Adrian Martin (2.70 ERA, 36.2 IP).

Dunedin Blue Jays (A) —(41-29, First in FSL North Division)

The Dunedin Blue Jays were able to finish well ahead of the competition in the first half of the season with good hitting and great pitching from almost every pitcher on the roster.

Top catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud has rebounded well from his back injury and is now hitting .283 with six home runs on the season. A call up to New Hampshire may happen sooner rather then later.

Although both have simmered down a little since their incredible starts, Henderson Alvarez (6-4, 3.38 ERA) and Chuck Huggins (5-2, 2.84 ERA) have continued to be revelations for the Dunedin Blue Jays and the main reasons for their first half record.

Toronto’s highest drafted player from last year, Chad Jenkins , has been called up to Dunedin from Lansing and has gone 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts so far.

Lansing Lugnuts (Low A) —(40-35, Third in Eastern Division)

A lot of players from Lansing are now with Dunedin, or even New Hampshire. The best player that remains is catcher AJ Jimenez , who is hitting .308 with an amazing 15 stolen bases.

Now that Chad Jenkins has been called to Dunedin, Ryan Tepera is far and away the Lugnuts best pitcher, sporting a 7-2 record to go along with a 3.08 ERA in 14 starts and 80 innings pitched.

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MLB: New York Mets, June record of 18-8, overall record of 44-34, second place in NL East, 1.5 games back

Position Player of the Month: Third baseman, David Wright

Wright’s role as the centerpiece of the Mets offense was perfectly exemplified by his June. He powered the Mets lineup with his team-leading six home runs and 29 RBI’s throughout the month. The 29 runs he drove in during June were the most by any NL hitter and have helped him up his RBI total to a league leading 63 on the year. Additionally, his .404 average during the month led the Mets and the National League. With four stolen bases and a slight cutback on his strikeouts, Wright has had one of the most complete months in baseball, and the most productive in June for the Mets organization.

Pitcher of the Month: Left-handed pitcher, Jon Niese

The young lefty starter turned in a handful of quality starts for the Mets in June. Niese was victorious in four of five starts without losing a game in June. On June 10, Niese shut down a surging young Padres lineup by tossing a complete game shutout, the first of his career. Through 33.2 June innings, Niese displayed some excellent command, striking out 24 and walking just nine. His WHIP in June has ended up at 1.04. With several excellent starts, Niese has extended his 2010 record to 5-2 in 13 starts, with a 3.84 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. If Niese continues to develop and excel, he’ll represent a youthful and reliable force in the middle of the Mets rotation.

AAA: Buffalo Bisons, June record of 12-17, overall record of 41-39, third place in INT North, 4 games back

Position Player of the Month: Outfielder, Lucas Duda

Plenty of credit is due to left-handed hitting outfielder Lucas Duda. Mets fans might not be very familiar with the 24 year-old outfielder, but his power potential is turning some heads. After batting .286 with six home runs into June with AA Binghamton, Duda earned a promotion to AAA and immediately took advantage. In 14 games in June, Duda slammed 4 home runs while batting .308. Duda is young, has strength, and put together a breakout June that will definitely start providing him with some recognition in the organization.

Pitcher of the Month: Left-handed pitcher, Pat Misch

His June numbers may not be his most glamorous of the year, but his control has been phenomenal and makes it surprising that the Mets have not called him to the Majors for a bullpen role. In six June starts, Misch is 3-2 with a 4.08 ERA. Those numbers are simply okay, but what stands out most is that he walked just six batters in 39.2 innings pitched. His excellent command has been present all season long, and if the Mets require left-handed help in the bullpen beside Pedro Feliciano, Misch could get the call.

AA: Binghamton Mets, June record of 17-11, overall record of 41-37, third place in EAS Eastern Division, 6 games back

Position Player of the Month: First baseman, Nick Evans

Evans has been thriving at AA, and it seems that the only reason he is still there is that he’ll be shipped off in a trade. During 28 games in June, Evans has batted .292 with a good looking OBP. He hit three home runs and only drove in eight, but he is showing that he has worked on his plate discipline and at times is looking much more patient at the plate. He’s one of the most important components of the AA lineup at the moment, but he may or may not be around much longer.

Pitcher of the Month: Left-handed pitcher, Michael Antonini

This lefty is interesting in that he has had a great deal of success against lefty batters in 2010. This success contributed to a good looking June. In six starts, Antonini went 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He showed off his durability by tossing a complete game on June 10. During June, he walked just nine and struck out 32 in 37.1 innings of work. A solid month for another southpaw arm the Mets are developing in their system.

A Adv.: St. Lucie Mets, June record of 12-12, overall record (second half) of 4-3 in FSL South, 1 game back

Position Player of the Month: Shortstop, Jordany Valdespin

Lost in the muck of Mets middle infield prospects, Valdespin is often overlooked, especially with the 2010 he is having. During the month of June, the left-handed hitting Valdespin hit .310 with a home run and 14 RBI’s. His ability to get on based allowed him to put his speed to good use on the basepaths. The agile Valdespin swiped seven bases during June. He’s an unheralded minor leaguer in the Mets system, but his month of June and ability to connect with the baseball is helping him put together a year that warrants a promotion.

Pitcher of the Month: Right-handed pitcher, Eric Beaulac

Beaulac has been very consistent. Over his last four starts (all June starts), he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a game. This means that the 23 year-old has put together four consecutive quality starts. In his June starts, he is 1-1. During these starts, Beaulac has struck out 21 and walked just eight. His consistency has stood out down in Port St. Lucie amongst a staff of more highly touted underachieving prospects.

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Headaches for fantasy owners were the result of their poor production. Their names are recognizable. Their pictures are likely one of your top current baseball cards. The bench might be the right place for them to think about what they did this week to so many hopeful fantasy baseball teams.

1) Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves

Heyward has made his way once again onto the slump report. He went only 1-for-16 and ended last week with a .062 AVG.

The Braves outfielder was placed on the disabled list due to a thumb injury. The test results showed that there was no structural damage but the organization wants to play it safe.

Sell Heyward immediately. His name and hype might get you a decent starter. His current production along with his thumb injury makes it unlikely that he turn it around anytime soon.

Atlanta’s “Chosen One” is only hitting .251 with 11 HR for the season. I am still not a believer that this kid will be the next Chipper Jones for Atlanta.

2) Ben Zobrist, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays outfielder was only able to manage a hit in 15 plate appearances. He did manage to successfully steal three bases and worked out seven walks. His average last week was horrific with a .067.

The base thefts and walks were high this week, but it doesn’t remove the fact that he missed 14 opportunities to smack the ball.

I wouldn’t be concerned with this recent slump. He will bounce back quickly. He is projected to hit around 20 home runs with near 90 RBI for this season. Zobrist is currently hitting .293 with 38 RBI and 5 home runs.

3) Adam Lind, OF, Torton Blue Jays

The Toronto outfielder was only 2-for-23 and ended the week with a .087 AVG. The bright side is that one of his only two hits last week was a home run.

Lind has seen his ownership drop dramatically in the last few weeks. I would recommend dealing him out by selling his power upside. You might want to consider simply dropping him and take a chance on a free agent.

Lind’s 2010 projections are favorable with a .300 AVG and over 35 home runs.

He is only hitting .204 with 9 home runs this season. It doesn’t look like he will get anywhere near his projections this year.

4) Russell Martin, C, Los Angeles Dodgers

Hollywood’s latest horror is sitting behind home plate. Martin has only been able to muster two hits in the last 20 at-bats. He finished up last week with a .100 AVG.

His seven free passes are the only think to be happy about after a terrible week.

The Dodgers catcher let his frustrations at the plate get the best of him, which lead to him being ejected from Monday’s game against the Giants.

Martin’s fantasy ownership is at a low point and appears that the latest slump is causing more owners to jump ship.

Martin is currently hitting .241 with nine home runs. He is projected to hit only 11 home runs so he may surpass that number.

5) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburg Pirates

Pittsburgh’s speed demon was only 2-for-19 with a .105 AVG last week. He was able to steal a base and took four walks to get on the bag.

He will break the slump sooner than later, so don’t panic.

McCutchen is projected to hit around 20 home runs and finish up around .270. He is currently hitting .299 with seven home runs.

6) Jorge Posada, C, New York Yankees

The New York Yankees catcher mustered up only two hits in 16 tries. He finished up the cold week with a .125 AVG.

Posada’s foot injury may have something to do with his poor production last week.

There has been a very slight decline in fantasy ownership concerning Posada and his recent slump.

He is projected to hit around 20 home runs and finish up around .280. Posada is currently hitting .299 with seven home runs.

7) Chris Young, OF, Arizona Dimondbacks

The Diamondbacks outfielder went 3-for-24 and ended the week with a .125 AVG. His only ray of sunshine was a bomb into the stands and a stolen base. His 2010 projections have him hitting around 25 home runs with a .247 AVG.

Young is hitting .261 with 13 home runs this season.

8) David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox designated hitter didn’t hit much. “Big Papi” was 2-for-14 and ended the week with a .143 AVG.

After receiving player of the month award, Ortiz has been in a June slump. He is a good sell high option.

He is projected to hit 25 home runs and finish up the season with a .250 AVG.

Ortiz is hitting .252 with 16 home runs this season.

9) Michael Cuddyer, OF, Minnisota Twins

The Twins outfielder had three hits with 21 at-bats and finished up the week with a .143 AVG.

You should have Cuddyer ride the pine until he shows signs of breaking out of the slump. He is only hitting .170 with no home runs in the last two weeks. His fantasy ownership is taking a hit and appears to keep on dropping.

He is project to hit around 25 home runs and end the season with a .270 AVG.

Cuddyer is currently hitting .259 with seven home runs.

10) Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks short stop had three hits with 21 plate appearances. He ended the week with a .143 AVG.

His knee soreness has had him listed day-to-day.

Drew’s fantasy ownership has taken a slight hit.

He is only hitting .209 with only two RBI in the last two weeks.

His projections have him at 20 home runs and a batting average around .290.

Dishonorable Mention*

OF BJ Upton TB 3/21 3 R, 1 HR, 2 XBH, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 3 SB, .143 AVG

1B Troy Glaus Atl 3/19, 2 R, 2 XBH, 1 RBI, 3 BB, .158 AVG

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Ubaldo Jimenez has been absolutely filthy through 16 starts this season, going 14-1 with a Bob Gibson-like 1.83 ERA. The 26-year-old flame thrower even tossed a no-hitter back on April 17 .

Likewise, Marlins’ starter Josh Johnson boasts a 1.83 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 16 starts, but hasn’t gotten the luck or the run support that Jimenez has.

While Colorado’s ace has struggled in his last two starts, Johnson has continued to dominate.

After a closer look, it’s become obvious that Johnson has outdueled the N.L. Cy Young favorite through the first three months in nearly every major pitching category:

Side notes:

FIP (fielder independent pitching) is a stat that measures factors only the pitcher can control. This helps us understand how well a pitcher has pitched, regardless of the defense behind him.

xFIP (expected fielder independent pitching) is an experimental stat which adjusts FIP and “normalizes” home run totals. Because research has indicated that home runs are a result of fly balls allowed and home parks, xFIP can be used to measure a pitcher’s expected ERA based on the average number of homers allowed per fly ball. This is a better indicator of a pitcher’s future ERA.

Using these stats to evaluate these two pitchers, we can conclude that:

• Johnson (2.47 FIP) has been better than Jimenez (3.07) this season.
• Johnson (3.16 xFIP) should continue to out-pitch Jimenez (3.68 xFIP) in the future.

Even if you toss out Jimenez’s recent struggles, (which have accounted for 18 percent of his total hits allowed and 43 percent of his total earned runs allowed this season), you can still argue that Johnson has been just as good:

Taking it one step further, Johnson has clearly outperformed Jimenez in other pitching categories such as:

• O-Swing rate (percent of batter’s that swing at pitches off the plate)
• Contact rate (percent of contact made on all pitches)
• First-pitch strike rate (percent of first-pitch strikes thrown)
• Swinging strike rate (percent of pitches which result in a swinging strike)

In fact, Jimenez has been no more than an average pitcher by these standards, while Johnson ranks 17th, third, 12th, and second in these categories among qualified starters.

Now don’t get it twisted; I envy Ubaldo’s ridiculous pitching repertoire as much as the next guy. I refused to be blinded by win totals and ESPN, however, and therefore believe that Josh Johnson has been (and will continue to be) the better pitcher.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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• Waiver Wire Fliers: Replacing Chase Utley
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Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Prospect Report:

• 2010 MLB Draft: When Will Bryce Harper Become Fantasy-Relevant?
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More 2010 Fantasy Baseball Insiders Player Projections:

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Right on the heels of Jose Bautista’s 20 home runs is Vernon Wells with 18. Going into Sunday afternoon’s game, the two men had nearly identical OPSs of .900 (Bautista) and .898 (Wells).

Wells’ slugging percentage is actually .020 points higher than Bautista’s, but the latter walks more, and has a .022 higher OBP.

Bautista has 47 and 49 runs and RBIs respectively. Wells’ totals are 43 and 45. The difference between the two mens’ offensive values is a statistical tie.

One thing that does meaningfully separate the two men is defense. Bautista is a liability on the field, while Wells is an asset. Moreover, Wells plays center field, a harder position than any of Bautista’s corner positions. 

On that basis, FanGraphs values Well’s contribution (year to date) as just over $10 million, Bautista’s at $7.5 million (based on what a free agent would likely receive for their respective performances). 

With not quite 81 games played, a reasonable rule of thumb would be to double these amounts and round up. On a full year basis, Wells might be worth about $21-$22  million, and Bautista $16 million. So (for now), defense tilts the balance in Wells’ favor.

But there is another factor that affects value, and it stems from the fact that Wells and Bautista got on the team in very different ways.

Wells has been a “Blue Jay all the way.” That’s certainly worth something in terms of loyalty, team fit, etc. But after a monster 2006, Wells was given a seven year, CC Sabathia-style contract extension lasting to 2014.

Counting three $8.5 annual installments of a $25.5 million signing bonus, Wells was awarded $9 million, $10 million, and $21 million for his first three free agent years of 2008-2010, $23 million in 2011, and $21 million each in 2012-2014.

Bautista, on the other hand, came to Toronto after having been demoted to the minor leagues by the Pittsburgh Pirates, who placed a far greater emphasis on his low batting average than his high OBP and OPS potential.

His trade for “a player to be named later” (Robinzon Diaz), reflects the extent to which he was considered damaged goods, as were his low salary, and the fact that he spent 2009 as a platoon player, playing about two games out of three.

This points out one other important difference between the two men: Wells is on track to barely earn his $21 million salary this year (after having failed to earn his salary with poor years in 2008 and 2009 because of injuries), leaving no extra value for the team.

On the other hand, Bautista is being paid $2.4 million, almost $14 million less than what he might be worth.

Put another way, with Well’s $21 million salary, you could get equivalent offensive production from Bautista (admittedly sacrificing some defense), and have almost $19 million left over, more than enough to pay pitcher Roy Halladay’s $16 million salary this year. The details, but not the dynamics, would change next year, when Halladay would be making $20 million and Wells $23 million.

On this basis, Wells is full-priced, and Bautista a huge bargain. As master investor Ben Graham (Warren Buffett’s teacher) said, “Price is what you pay, value is what you get.”

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As the Blue Jays season approaches the half way mark, several positive and negative trends have carried along long enough that extra attention is warranted. By far the two most concerning trends are the continuing futility of Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. Both have been bad enough at the plate this year to generate serious concern about their futures.

This is especially true because both players are in what should be the primes of their careers but yet are having their worst seasons to date. Even more troubling is that the Blue Jays have committed to long term contracts with both players. The struggles from both players are showing up in both their traditional and more advanced statistics. The small sample size excuse, as well as the poor BABIP excuse are melting away leaving a great deal of concern.

Aaron Hill’s problems are less concerning than Lind’s for multiple reasons. First, Lind has been rated as a poor fielder in his time in left field, one of the least demanding defensive positions. That has largely regulated him to a DH role leaving his hitting as his only means of contributing to the Jays.

Hill on the other hand is generally considered to be an above average defensive second baseman, although UZR has pegged him as slightly below average since 2009. Second base is a much more demanding position than left field. Even a slightly below average second baseman has more value than an average left fielder, which Lind is far from being.

The second issue that yields more concern for Lind than Hill is their contracts. Hill is only guaranteed five million dollars for 2011, after which the Jays hold three option years covering 2012-2014. If the Jays decide he’s unlikely to be worth his option price in any year after ’11 they can walk away. Lind on the other hand is guaranteed 5.15 million dollars from 2011-2013, with no options until 2014.

Based on their track records before their 2009 breakout seasons neither should have been expected to repeat last year’s performance in 2010. The problem is that they have both nose dived below any previous level of production thus far.

Lind is a career .272 hitter who’s hit just .205 this season while his 7.5 percent walk rate is slightly higher than his career 7.0 percent. His power has also dropped, after never posting a full season ISO lower than .156 he’s sitting at .144 in 2010. Most troubling is his huge spike in strikeouts. After striking out in 18.1 and 18.7 percent of his at-bats in 2008 and 2009 he’s at 27 percent this season.

The strikeout spike demands a look at his contact rates and plate discipline numbers. And there’s nothing reassuring there either, he’s chasing 31.5 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. This after chasing just 24.7 percent a season ago. Lind’s also swung and missed 10.3 percent of the time, up from 7.2 percent in ’09.

Again, looking at Hill’s numbers there’s less to be concerned about than Lind. Not by much though. Hill has been able to draw a walk in 10.5 percent of his plate appearances, a marked improvement over his 7.0 percent career rate. He’s also maintained some power with a .182 ISO that’s much better than any ISO over a full season from 2005-2008.

But he’s still stuck with a .191 batting average and an almost unfathomable .182 BABIP. The BABIP looked to be the culprit earlier in the season for Hill. Now however, 236 at-bats into his 2010 season other factors have emerged. The biggest of which is Hill’s 8.6 percent line drive rate and 52 percent flyball rate. Both numbers are way off his career norms and killing any chance of BABIP rebound. A return to his career 19.1 percent line drive rate and 39.9 percent flyball rate are Hill’s only hope at this point.

How Hill is going to do that is another question entirely. The statistics can only go so far in identifying problems, trends and reasons for regression or improvement.

At this point Jays fans would be best served to believe that Hill and Lind can’t possibly be this bad, no matter the reason, and wait for the rebound. Especially for Lind who only has a limited means for bringing a return on the Jays investment. 

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The mystery is over.  No need to even have a vote.  We now know who the Most Valuable Player in the National League is.

It isn’t Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, or Ubaldo Jimenez.  He plays in the National League East, but he isn’t Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Jason Heyward, or Ryan Zimmerman.  

The 2010 NL MVP plays for the Philadelphia Phillies, but he isn’t Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, or Roy Halladay.

The 2010 National League Most Valuable Player is none other than Jimmy Rollins.

Not on board with that idea yet?  No matter–I would not have been either if I had not seen it with my own eyes.  But the evidence is overwhelming.

The Phillies started the 2010 season with six wins in their first seven games, and frankly they were not close wins.  Only a 2-1 victory over the Houston Astros in the sixth game was decided by less than three runs.

Then Jimmy got hurt.  During the one month that Rollins was out–from April 12th through May 16–the Phillies went 17-12 and briefly fell out of first place in the NL East.

Jimmy returned on May 17th, with the Phillies getting the win in his first game back by a score of 12-2.  But J-Roll’s return was brief, as he went back on the disabled list after only five games back.

And that’s when things got bad.

The Phillies were without Rollins from May 22nd to June 21st–exactly one month’s worth of games–and history will remember it as the most brutal streak that the current incarnation of the Phillies has endured.

For the record: The Phillies went 9-17 during the time that Jimmy was out.  They were shut out six times, and scored only one run in four other games.  Out of nine total series during the time that Rollins was out, the Phillies won only two of them.  And, they went from 5.0 games up in the division to 5.5 games out of the lead in the division.

That ain’t the stuff that World Series teams are made of.

J-Roll returned to the Phillies lineup on June 22nd, and the Phillies have yet to lose.  More importantly, they are scoring again–after a 2-1 victory on Tuesday, the Phillies scored seven runs on Wednesday, 12 runs on Thursday, and (as of this writing) have nine runs in the eighth inning against Toronto.

Perhaps the most important statistic is this:

Assuming tonight’s game against the Blue Jays holds up, the Phillies will move to 12-3 with Rollins in the lineup, and 27-29 without.

At the end of the day, the picture these stats paint is too clear to ignore: with Jimmy Rollins in the lineup, the Phillies are a World Series team.  Without him, they struggle to stay about .500.

I don’t know who is going to come out on top in the NL MVP voting at the end of the year, but I can tell you right now who the Most Valuable Player in the National League is.

He plays shortstop for the Phillies, and he’s got them back on a roll.

A J-Roll.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

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Tonight, the Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia against the Phillies. However, this is no ordinary home series for the Phillies.

Instead, this series was supposed to be played in Toronto but had to be moved to Philly due to security reasons that arose from the G20 Summit being held in Toronto this weekend.

As a result, the game will be played as if the Blue Jays are the home team; they will take batting practice first, they will pitch in the top of the inning and hit in the bottom half, and they will wear their home uniforms. Obviously though, the fans, which are big huge part of having “home field advantage,” are going to be overwhelmingly Phillies fans.

The Blue Jays considered moving to a more neutral field but decided playing in Philly would be the easiest solution. According to Blue Jays President and CEO Paul Beeston, the series was expected to draw around 90,000 fans for the three-game set before it was moved. The Blue Jays usually draw an average of 15,208 fans, so this series was supposed to be a big draw.

We at SeatGeek are always interested in if, and how, these abnormalities affect ticket prices. Apparently, the Phillies and Blue Jays will be sharing revenue for this game, with the goal for both teams to come out revenue neutral.

We were curious to see if ticket prices for the series would be higher than the season average at home for the Phillies due to its uniqueness and how ticket prices for the series would compare to the season average in Toronto since this is technically a home game for Toronto.

• There is a slight, but insignificant, increase in average transaction price for this series over the Phillies’ season average, $61.73 to $59.62.
• The one game that is significantly higher than the Phillies’ season average is tonight’s game, selling at an average of $73.39. This is most likely due to the fact that Roy Halladay is pitching and facing his old team.
• The average transaction price for this series is significantly less than the Blue Jays’ average price at home.

The rarity of this kind of series seems to have had little effect on ticket prices, as the prices are right in line with the season average at home for the Phillies. This is definitely an unusual series, and it will be interesting to watch how it goes. I wonder how many Blue Jays fans are coming down from Toronto to see their team play “at home.”

Be sure to follow us on Twitter @SeatGeekMLB and email max@seatgeek.com with any questions or comments.

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Yankees –Dodgers  is one of the most classic and enduring rivalries in all of American sports. These two clubs have had a unique relationship since the early 20th century when the Dodgers still played at Ebbets Field in Brooklyn. Having met each other in the World Series 11 times, most recently in the 1981 fall classic, these are clearly two franchises who don’t like each other.

For those who believe that Yankees-Dodgers has lost its luster over the past 50 years, ticket data for this weekend’s series begs to differ. Tickets for the three game set are transacting at prices of $103.92 for game 1 , $107.22 for game 2 , and $96.95 for game 3 . These prices are significantly higher than the Dodgers average ticket price this season, which is $55.27, and the average prices of the Dodger’s two preceding home series.

This is extra significant given that the two previous series were against high profile opponents, the crosstown rival LA Angels of Anaheim, and the division-leading Cardinals.

While Yankees – Dodgers is a draw regardless of the circumstances, other factors besides the history between these two teams has contributed to the excitement surrounding this series.

First of all, these two teams have not met since 2004. A time so far in the distant past, that one of the games ended with then-Dodgers closer Eric Gagne striking out former Yankee centerfielder Bernie Williams.

Since that time, Gagne has been implicated and admitted to use of performance enhancing drugs and is out of baseball. Bernie Williams has also retired and currently is more comfortable playing his guitar than swinging a bat.

The biggest draw for this series however, is the Joe Torre saga.

While managing the Yankees to four world championships and 10 straight playoff appearances, Joe Torre was a hero amongst New Yorkers.

However, after the 2007 season, Torre and the Yankees had an ugly separation, in which the Yankees offered Torre a contract extension of $5 million plus incentives which he viewed as insultingly low, and bolted to the sunny skies of Los Angeles, like Walter O’Malley and the Dodgers did 50 years earlier.

The Torre-Yankee divorce got even uglier after Torre published a book in which he criticized both Yankee owner George Steinbrenner and all-star third baseman Alex Rodriguez.

Add to the mix Manny Ramirez, the inflammatory former Red Sox, and current Dodger outfielder’s first matchup against the Yanks since his departure from Boston two seasons ago, and it’s no wonder this series is the biggest thing to hit LA since Ron Artest’s post game press conference  after the NBA finals.

This article is also featured on  SeatGeek Sports Blog

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