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Coming into the 2010 season, the Braves had two players who hoped to enter the Comeback Player of the Year race.

Tim Hudson missed the majority of the 2009 season after Tommy John surgery, and many wondered whether the Braves would resign him, as doing so would mean trading either Derek Lowe or Javier Vazquez.

In his late-season appearances, Hudson convinced the Braves that he was worth re-signing, and the team eventually traded away Vazquez (after failing to trade Lowe) in order to stay within the budget.

Looking for a big, right-handed bat, the Braves turned to former slugger Troy Glaus, who also missed the majority of the 2009 season.

After battling through injuries, Glaus had a great 2008 before getting hurt again. Needing a first baseman to bridge the gap to Freddie Freeman, the Braves took a chance on Glaus and brought him in to be a much-needed power bat.

Thus far in the season, Hudson is among the NL leaders with a 2.43 ERA, and Glaus is tied for the NL lead with 46 RBI.

With stats like that, both Hudson and Glaus are in the race for Comeback Player of the Year, but which one will finish the year with the better season?

Tim Hudson:

2010 Stats: 6-2, 2.43 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 0.8 WAR, 85.1 IP, 36:30 K/BB

Underlying Stats: .235 BABIP, 83.3% strand rate, 4.35 FIP, 4.42 xFIP

ZIPS Rest of Season Projection: 5-4, 4.06 ERA in 14 starts

ZIPS Updated Full Season Projection: 11-6, 3.23 ERA

Troy Glaus

2010 Stats: .279/.375/.474 11 HR, 46 RBI, 0.9 WAR

Underlying Stats: .320 BABIP

ZIPS Rest of Season Projection: .260/.363/.449 11 HR, 45 RBI

ZIPS Updated Full Season Projection: .269/.369/.462 22 HR, 91 RBI

The underlying stats show that both players have been lucky so far this season, Hudson more so than Glaus.

As a sinkerball pitcher, Hudson is expected to have an ERA below his FIP, but not two full runs lower. Both his BABIP and strand rate have been extremely fortunate, and he hasn’t shown any ability to miss bats consistently.

Despite everything that has been said, if Hudson finished the season with a 3.23 ERA, he will have surpassed most of the expectations on him coming into the season.

What makes Glaus’ start so impressive is that he couldn’t do anything right in April. On the year, he has a somewhat fortunate BABIP, but his batting average shouldn’t sink too much over the course of the season.

What has stood out the most for Glaus is the number of RBI he has put up. With Martin Prado and Jason Heyward both getting on base at the top of the lineup, he should continue to drive in runs, and might exceed the 91 RBI that ZIPS projects him to have.

Overall, I would have to say Hudson has the better chance of winning the award. Although he is likely to regress more, he has been far more outstanding in the early season.

If both players finished with their ZIPS updated projections, I would definitely choose Hudson.

Even if Glaus exceeds his projection in RBI (and maybe hit a couple more homers), I would still take Hudson with a 3.23 ERA.

This article is also featured on Tomahawk Talk

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Hot hitting has been the reason for the Reds’ success to this point. It may astonish you to know that four of the top 11 batters in the National League wear Cincinnati uniforms.

That is correct. Scott Rolen is currently fifth in the league at .309, Brandon Phillips is ninth at .304, while Jonny Gomes and Joey Votto are tied at 10th, both batting .301.

I haven’t researched it but I bet it has been a good while since four Reds have been in the Top 10 in batting this far into the season.

Since June 1, Rolen is batting .425, with 3 HR, and 12 RBI, with an OBP of .455.

Votto is batting .316 since May 15. He also has hit 3 HR with 14 RBI, and an OBP of .419.

Since June 4, Phillips is batting .444 with a .474 OBP.

Going all the way back to May 5, Gomes is batting .364 with  5 HR and 29 RBI. His OBP during that stretch is .434. 

With runners in scoring position, Gomes is batting .435 with 36 RBI. With two outs and runners in scoring position, his average jumps to .500 with 13 RBI in only 16 AB.

Rolen is second in the league with 14 HR, and is fourth in RBI with 44.

Gomes is tied for 10th in RBI with 41. He leads all NL left fielders in average and RBI, including Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano.

Cincinnati leads the league in batting at a .280 clip, in runs, hits, RBI, in SLG and in OPS. They are second to the Milwaukee Brewers in HR, and second to the Atlanta Braves in OBP.

They were getting quality starts seemingly every outing until this past week. The starters have been getting roughed up, the middle relief corps has been spotty, and the closing department has sucked.

However, as Dusty Baker said, and I paraphrase, Don’t count us out as long as we have a bat in our hand.

It is so true, I have come to expect good things at the plate in the last inning. Last night, I couldn’t believe it when Rolen lined out to end the game.

As long as the guys are hitting, we will have a chance to win, 7-6, 14-13 or whatever. The starters will get back into the groove and hopefully the closer, formerly known as Moon Man, will get his act together on a consistent basis.

As much as I hate to admit it, great hitting trumps great pitching every time. Face it, you have never heard anyone say they got beat 0-0.

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There appear to be two factors in the Mets’ home success and road failure.

First, they just aren’t scoring runs on the road (47 percent fewer runs).

Second, Mets pitchers are giving up 58 percent fewer home runs at Citi Field than on the road.

As a result of allowing fewer home runs, the Mets are also allowing 30 percent fewer RBI at Citi Field (135 away, 95 home).  

One could argue that other factors, including the number of hits (singles, doubles, and triples) and walks could account for this, but statistics suggest otherwise.

Mets pitchers are giving up an equal number of hits both home and away.  They are actually giving up fewer walks on the road.  This means it comes down to the home run.

I guess when you aren’t at all afraid of giving up a punishing home run, you are more daring with your pitching.

Mets pitchers are getting 32 percent more strikeouts at Citi Field, as well as issuing 29 percent more walks.  But the base-on balls don’t hurt as much at Citi Field, where home runs don’t happen.

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The Blue Jays have Monday off as they get a chance to catch their breath during a brutally tough stretch in the schedule. Over the weekend, the Jays took two of three from the Yankees and nearly pulled off the sweep. But thanks to another less than impressive showing from the ‘pen, the Jays had to settle for splitting their six home games with the Rays and Yankees.

The Jays will get another shot at the first-place Rays with a three game set down in Tampa Bay. Checkout the pitching pairings for the series here. With the night off, here are a few non-draft related notes to hold you over until tomorrow night:

Fred Lewis’ Vanishing Walk Rate

Since coming over from the Giants, Lewis has put together a good offensive season so far. He’s bounced back nicely from last year’s disappointing showing in which he hit just .258 and saw his isolated power drop to a pedestrian .132. This year, he’s got some pop in his bat with a .192 ISO to go along with his .291 batting average. Already, he’s gone deep four times in 195 plate appearances after hitting only four bombs last season in 336 plate appearances.

The only glaring deficiency has been his 4.6 percent walk rate, well below his career mark of 9.3 percent. That has held his on-base percentage to a slightly below average .325. Lewis’ struggles could largely be attributed to his chasing of pitches outside the strike zone. Last year he offered at just 19.1 percent of pitches outside the zone, well below the league average of 25.1. This year he’s offered at a staggering 30.9 percent of out of zone pitches, almost one out of every three.

The Brandon Morrow Experience

The bullpen’s collapse on Sunday cast a shadow over Morrow’s outstanding outing against the Yankees. That outing, combined with his previous start against Tampa Bay, were his best two back to back starts this year—against two of the best teams in the league no less. Combined he went 14 innings, allowing just seven hits and two earned runs. He went seven innings in each start, the first time he’s lasted for seven innings or longer in two consecutive outings this year.

It also marked his third straight start without yielding a home run. Most importantly for Morrow, he only walked three batters across the two starts. And after getting just one strikeout against the Rays, he bounced back and set down eight Yankees by way of the K.

His ERA still sits at 5.48, but he’s kept his FIP (3.68) in check. The FIP has remained low despite walking 4.92 batters per nine innings thanks to his .70 HR/9 IN. The 74 strikeouts in 64 innings has helped as well. He might never be a control pitcher but if he can keep striking out a batter or more an inning and keep the homers to less than one per nine innings he will be successful.

Pumping the Brakes on Brett Wallace

Don’t worry, Brett Wallace is good and is most likely going to continue to be good. But he’s cooled off lately for Triple-A Las Vegas as he has seen his batting average drop down to .270. According to StatCorner.com , his 99 wOBA+ puts him as just a league average hitter in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. His non-adjusted wOBA has dropped from .378 last year with Sacramento to .357 in 2010.

It isn’t all bad for Wallace though. After hitting 20 homers in 532 at-bats last year he has 11 already in just 222 trips to the plate. His walk rate and isolated power have also increased over last year’s numbers.

This isn’t a big cause for concern in the long run for the Jays or Wallace but it is reason enough to give him some more time at Triple-A. The best case scenario would be to wait for him to heat up before being recalled. The more confidence the young man has upon his promotion the better.

Be sure to check back to Bleacher Report tomorrow to see Jeff Wahl’s initial thoughts on the Blue Jays’ early round draft selections. The Jays have several picks in the first couple rounds of new GM Alex Anthopoulos’ first draft experience.

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With Stephen Strasburg set to make his Major League Baseball debut tomorrow, Mike Leake steadily gaining notoriety, and talks of Bryce Harper heating up again, I will take a look at the top 10 players from last year’s draft.

It is no secret that it takes a few years for players to make it to the majors and to make an impact, so it is no surprise that the majority of these players are still in the minors, but just how well are they doing?

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The Cleveland Indians have come under intense scrutiny for trading away three All-Star players in the past two seasons.  While the majority of the criticism is valid, as the talent the Indians received back in those trades looks weak so far, the Tribe can be praised for luring away right handed starter Mitch Talbot from Tampa Bay for catcher Kelly Shoppach in December 2009.  

At the time of the deal, it didn’t seem like much.  So far, Talbot has proven to be a diamond in the rough.  Nobody was really sure what to expect from him, but he has been a solid addition to the starting rotation and a bright future ahead of him.

Shoppach impressed with his power numbers during the 2008 season, one of four seasons he spent with the Indians. Throughout his Indian career, however, he also proved that he was not an everyday catcher; his hitting and defense really slid in 2009.  He never hit above .261 and struck out too much.  Even in 2008, when he hit 21 home runs, he stuck out 133 times in just 112 games.  

Shoppach’s defense decreased as his playing time increased.  He went from above average at throwing out runners in 2006 and 2007 (37%) to well below average in 2008 and 2009 (22%).  

After a terrible 2009 season in which Shoppach batted .214, I was completely surprised that we got a player above single or double A for him.  I figured a bag of baseballs, a few cases of hot dogs, and some cash would be sufficient for the oft-wiffing catcher. Instead, we received a Major League ready starter who was just 26 years old.  Yes, Talbot was unproven, but at least we didn’t have to wait for yet another prospect; he could come in and start pitching right away.  

Mitch had a solid spring training which has carried into the season thus far.  He is tied for 3rd in the AL with seven wins (7-4) with a nice 3.54 era in 11 starts.  Perhaps more importantly, he has kept the team in most of his starts and is averaging 6 and 2/3 innings per outing.  

Talbot is not a dominant pitcher. He relies more on consistency and an exceptional slider that breaks hard and late.  In addition, The Utah native throws an average fastball, a decent change up, and a good cutter that dives in at left handed hitters.

In just his second start of the season, Mitch threw a complete game as the Tribe beat Mark Buehrle and the White Sox 6-2.  He allowed 6 hits and only 1 earned run, which came off a Paul Konerko home run in the second inning.  After that, he was in complete control.  He did not walk a batter and frequently pitched ahead in the count.  68 of his 97 pitches went for strikes.  The cutter and slider were working well, leading to 17 ground ball outs.

Many first year pitchers struggle with their command. Luckily for Talbot, he’s displayed composure and mound presence throughout his inaugural season.  He’s been especially good at working his way out of trouble with little or no damage.

Of course, it is too early to predict the type of pitcher Talbot can become in the future, but he shows a lot of promise. For what it’s worth, he is on pace to win 18 games.  

It will be interesting to see how Mitch Talbot’s career progresses.  So far, the fans cannot complain.  After all, we only gave up a 30 year old catcher for a 26 year old starting pitcher winning games at the major league level-that is a STEAL.  

It is ironic that after trading two Cy Young pitchers in Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia and an All Star catcher in Victor Martinez, the trade of Kelly Shoppach may have yielded the best talent for the Cleveland Indians.  We may be saying the same thing about the Casey Blake trade for Carlos Santana soon.

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Okay so I’m a little late with Part II of my season-long look into the lost art of the stolen base. You can read part I here as a template for what future articles in this series will look like (if you are a new reader of mine). For those that aren’t, yes it’s the same format.

In a league where I’d like to see a 100-steal man, that is no longer possible as 80 has become the new 100 in terms of unattainable records. No one’s stolen even that many since Vince Coleman’s 81 in 1988 so why not make that the new standard, seeing how it likely won’t be reached anyway.

At the current pace, this season unfortunately will hold true to form.

As of June 1 here were the top five league leaders:

1. Rajai Davis (pictured) Oakland A’s.

Stole 12 bases in 14 attempts (85.7 percent) for the month of May. His season total to date is 22 as he stole 10 bases in April, and he’s currently on pace for 69 for the season. When you lead the league in steals, you get your picture in the article.

Last month in was Juan Pierre on the Sox page, this month maybe Athletics fans will come to know the series I’ve come to write.

April: 10/10

May: 12/14

June: ???

With any player you’d obviously like to see him increase his base steals each month as the season goes on. So far, Davis is not disappointing in that regard. In fact, if history is any indication Davis should heat up (no pun intended), this summer as he stole 15 bases last August and 11 in September! In a league without a Coleman this era, it appears he’s the best we got.

2. Juan Pierre, Chicago White Sox

Stole 10 bases in 11 attempts in May. His season total is 22 and he’s on pace for 67 for the season.

April: 9/12

May: 10/11

June: ????

Like Davis, Pierre’s numbers are increasing. However, they are misleading as the league leader after April only stole one base after May 15-exactly half the month.

This means that he stole nine bases in the team’s first 13 games which would have (in theory) put him on pace to steal a very eerie Carl Crawford-esque 26 steals in May, similar to how Crawford stole 21 last May.

When you look at it in that perspective, the always frustrating Pierre simply faded away which he has a history of being a nice player, but despite the speed and ability simply desires to be “good enough” when “great” could be a real possibility. Thus, the story of his career.

3. Brett Gardener, New York Yankees

My pick for “first to fade away” did not disappoint in May only swiping eight bases in 11 attempts, giving him 19 for the season on pace for 57.

As the Yankees continue to improve in the standings, expect him to fade away as getting on base and scoring runs become more important to the team that simply moving up 90 feet.

April: 10/11

May: 8/11

June: ????

Gardner’s numbers are all ready going down. Expect more of the same as he’s deemed “too valuable” and ” versatile” to risk injury.

4. Michael Bourn, Houston Astros

Stole eight bases in 12 attempts in May, giving him 18 for the season and putting him on pace for 54.

April: 9/11

May: 8/12

June: ????

Bourn’s numbers are startlingly going down for a player that was steadily improving last summer in this fashion. Not surprisingly his league ranking dropped from third to fourth. For a team going nowhere, why isn’t he running more with nothing to lose?

5. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers

Finally a wild card to the discussion! The super-youthful (21) Andrus is easily the most promising of the stolen base fraternity (to date) having stole 11 bases in 16 attempts in May.

April: 7/10

May: 11/16

June: ????

Unlike Gardner his numbers are going up, and outside Davis, no one stole more bases in May than Andrus. Only concern is he may have a bit of Nyger Morgan-like carelessness on the base paths already getting caught eight times on the season in only 26 attempts (69 percent).

In a league that prides itself on an 80 percent target rate, 69 percent just won’t cut it. Still, you have to like his aggressiveness and the fact that his team (29-25) is still in first place, (albeit in a very weak division) despite his struggles.

This is a classic case of having to take the bad with the good and Andrus is only going to get better. In fact, last season I predicted he would soon be a league leader in my final article in the 2009 season-long look and had him pegged for 50.

Well, there you have it. Check back around July 1 for the latest installment into the lost art of the stolen base with updates and projections and what it all means.

Statistics and information from ESPN.com and Wikipedia directly contributed to the content in this article.

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How good has Ubaldo Jimenez been through 11 starts in 2010?  Almost unbelievably good.

Everyone knows, or should know, that Coors Field in mile-high Denver, is far and away the best place to hit in the major leagues.  Jimenez has a 1.29 home ERA this year, and only an 0.52 ERA on the road.  Based on that performance, I’d guestimate Jiminez’s current ERA (0.78 in fact) at 0.60 if he played his home games in a completely hitting/pitching neutral park.

By way of comparison, the modern record (since 1900) for ERA is Dutch Leonard’s 1.01 ERA in 1914 (in 223 innings pitched, which was only 15th most in an eight team league).  BTW, the lowest post-1900 ERA for any pitcher who pitched significantly over 100 IP that I am aware of is the immortal Ferdie Schupp, who had an 0.90 ERA in 140.1 IP for the 1916 NY Giants. 

The truly modern (since 1946) record is, of course, held by Bob Gibson, who posted a 1.12 ERA in 1968.

These records were set in extreme pitchers’ eras in baseball history.  The fact that Jimenez has an 0.78 ERA pitching in his home games in probably the best hitters’ park in baseball, at least since they closed down the Baker Bowl in Philadelphia, is truly amazing.

According to wikipedia, the Baker Bowl was only 280 feet down the right field line and an even more astounding 300 feet to right center—around 1920, the Phillies added a metal fence at the top that made the right field wall 60 feet high, but at those dimensions it simply turned a lot of routine fly balls from homeruns into doubles and triples.

By way of comparison, the current dimensions of Fenway Park, according to the Red Sox, are 310 feet down the left field line, 379 to left center and the Green Monster is 37 feet high.  The wall at the Baker Bowl long had a huge painted sign stating, “The Phillies Use Life Buoy Soap,” but, of course, the Phillies of that era still stunk.

It’s definitely time to wonder whether the pendulum is swinging back from the extreme hitters’ era that ended with a proper testing regime for performance enhancing drugs. 

I always though that PEDs helped hitting more than pitching, because even if PEDs allowed a pitcher to throw harder, ‘roids weren’t necessarily going to help command or breaking stuff, and the faster the ball comes in, the faster jacked-reflex hitters like Barry Bonds could turn the ball around.

We’ve now had what should have been three perfect games in less than a month, and you have to start to wonder if this isn’t going to be a strong pitchers’ year when all is said and done. 

Keep in mind also that the strike zone is definitely bigger than it was a decade ago, since MLB has made a concerted effort to make umpires call pitches between the letters and the belly button strikes.  There are a lot more fastballs at the letters called strikes now than there were 10 years ago.

All that being said, I’m certain that Ubaldo Jimenez will not finish the 2010 season with an ERA of 1.12 or lower in 200+ innings pitched.  There will be a hot night in Denver in July or August when the air is absolutely still, and everything Jimenez throws up there will be hit into a gap or will carry off somewhere into the Denver night.  It only takes one such game in Denver to end all hope of a record setting pitching season.

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With the first two months of the season in the books, we’ll take a look at how Rays prospects have performed at the two highest levels.

Each team is loaded with talent, as the Rays feature one of the top farm systems in the game.

We’ll have a look at who’s off to a hot start and who’s struggling, with special attention to some of the Rays’ most noteworthy prospects.

AAA: Durham Bulls (31-23, First Place, IL South)

Who’s Hot

First baseman Dan Johnson, famous for his pinch-hit home run at Boston during the 2008 playoff run, is leading the International League with 15 homers and is batting .324. He’s 30 years old and a very known quantity, but he is making a strong case that he belongs in the big leagues somewhere.

Top pitching prospect Jeremy Hellickson has continued his dominance of AAA, going 8-2 with a 2.49 ERA in 65 innings pitched and striking out 67. He recently took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. Mike Ekstrom has anchored the bullpen since his demotion, giving up just one earned run in 20 innings pitched.

Who’s Not

It’s hard to find players that are disappointing on this team, as it is stacked in both its hitting and pitching. Outfielder Fernando Perez has struggled of late though. After hitting .282 in the first month, he hit just .165 in May. He’s batting .237 but has stolen 16 bases.

Notable

Desmond Jennings, the Rays’ top outfield prospect, has had his ups and downs in 2010. Injuries have kept him from getting into a groove at the plate, and he is batting .248 in 101 at-bats. He has no home runs but has stolen 16 bases and been spectacular in the field.

AA: Montgomery Biscuits (29-23, Second Place, Southern Division)

Who’s Hot

Pitching has been the strength of this team, and Jeremy Hall has been the workhorse of the staff, logging 57 innings in 10 starts. He’s currently 3-2 with a 2.53 ERA.

Alex Torres, one of the Rays’ top lefty pitching prospects, has been equally impressive, striking out 57 batters in 50 innings. He’s 5-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 10 starts. Starting pitcher Alex Cobb has added to the success of the rotation since coming off the DL, posting a 1.86 ERA in four starts.

Infielder Drew Anderson and catcher Nevin Ashley have paced the offense, batting .321 and .319 respectively.

Who’s Not

Pitcher Rayner Oliveros has been hit hard for a 6.32 ERA in more than 30 innings pitched. Outfielder Cody Straight is hitting just .195.

Notable

Starting pitcher Jake McGee, in his first full season after surgery, has had his moments but has also struggled at times. He has a 4.42 ERA in nine starts, with a very good 41 strikeouts in 38 innings.

Corner infielder Matt Sweeney, acquired in the Scott Kazmir trade along with Torres, was promoted to Montgomery from Single-A Charlotte. The 22-year-old has struggled in his first 53 AA at-bats after showing some good pop with Charlotte. He’s hitting .208 with just two walks and 16 strikeouts and has yet to hit his first home run.

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