Kuzul

I have to preface this by saying that I have totally and fully jumped onto the Sabermetric bandwagon. I know I’m late with it, but I am hooked.

There is still a lot I have to learn in the intricacies of the endless list of stats that didn’t exist 15 years ago (for instance the difference between WPA-win probability added and VORP-Value over a replacement player, they seem like they are measuring the same thing).

Anyway, I had to preface with that because I have become fascinated with one stat in particular, clutch.

That is it, it is as simple as that. A single stat that can tell you whether a player is at a higher level in high-pressure situations than he normally is.

While watching the Reds play Tuesday night and saw them come back from yet another deficit (only to lose it in the bottom of the ninth unfortunately), I couldn’t help but notice how much better their hitter seemed to be in high pressure situations.

This season it seems I have seen countless two-out RBI, eighth and ninth inning runs, and heroic walk-offs from the team with an incredible 10 last at-bat victories (out of 23 so far), and two handfuls of late-inning comebacks.

So, I made a B-line for my latest addiction (fangraphs.com) to check out their clutch stats.

I found that Joey Votto is the fourth most clutch player in the league so far this year, meaning that his game elevates the fourth most in pressure situations, not that he is the fourth best player in pressure situations.

He comes out with a “clutch” rating of 1.05, meaning that after you subtract the WPA/LI from the WPA/pLI of a player you get that number (much more thoroughly explained here ).

Looking even further, we see that Cincinnati is the second most clutch team in the Majors, behind Detroit. 

This all makes sense when you watch the Reds, who at times can come out lethargic in the first few innings. But as the heat is put on them, they respond in a big way, and come up with hits in big situations.

Now, that being said, I sat Wednesday afternoon discretely updating my phone in class, hoping for the game ending double-play that was sure to bail out the latest version of the Reds collapsing bullpen.

It never came. The ‘pen gave up a wonderful performance by Mike Leake and a sure win (Atlanta had a 0.5% chance of winning going into the ninth) with a seven run debacle.

I was distraught over how non-clutch our pitching staff has come to be. It seems the Reds are unable to close out a game without Coco Cordero or Nick Masset (more in April than May) making me yell at the TV.

It seems that the Reds rank eighth worst in the majors in clutch pitching. They are sitting at -0.90, worse than their average pitching in high-pressure situations.

For whatever reason, there is a feeling of pomp and swagger in the dugout when Cincy is down heading into the late innings. But in the bullpen there is a feeling of fear and ineptitude when they are playing in a close game in the later innings.

While the clutch hitting of the Reds is to be celebrated, the anti-clutch bullpen may be something to worry about in the Queen City.

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The first 40 games of the season are in the books, and when compiling the report card for the Los Angeles Dodgers, the first quarter can pretty much be summed up in two words — roller coaster.

Undoubtedly, injuries have plagued the boys in blue already during the young season.

At some point or another, the Dodgers have had seven players visit the disabled list, and have heavily relied on bench play or minor league call-ups to pick up the slack.

Despite the injuries, Los Angeles finds themselves in third place in the NL West, registering a 22-18 record at the beginning of the day on May 20.

A large number of the wins have occurred during their nine-game win streak, which came to a halt on May 19 at the hands of the division leading San Diego Padres.

When the overall play of the Dodgers is dissected into specific areas, several interesting elements are discovered. Numerous facts, figures and statistics representing these areas are shown below.

Batting

In terms of batting average, the Dodgers rank second in the National League with a .274 overall mark.

As expected, Los Angeles hits much better at home (.288 avg.) compared to the road (.264 avg.) But what’s interesting is that when facing right-handed pitching, the Dodgers are hitting a stellar .286, as opposed to a meager .239 against lefties.

Despite a more than adequate batting average, the power numbers aren’t as impressive.

Los Angeles ranks fifth in the NL with a .427 slugging percentage; their 36 total home-runs rank eighth in the league.

The Arizona Diamondbacks total HR count of 53 allows this number to be put into a clearer perspective.

While the Dodgers also rank second in the NL with a .346 on-base percentage, their total run production ranks fourth (208), and their RBI output also ranks fourth, at 198.

Los Angeles is positioned in fourth place when stealing bases, registering 28 total. The Padres are far and away the leaders of this category in the NL with 49 stolen bags.

Considering individual efforts, the Dodgers are primarily spear-headed by the superior play of three hitters: Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and James Loney.

Prior to landing on the disabled list, Ethier sported a .392 average, 11 home-runs and 38 RBI, all of which lead the National League. Matt Kemp (.282/8/25) and James Loney (.298/4/27) have picked up the slack for Ethier.

Casey Blake, who recently elevated his offensive production, is also a chief contributor with five home-runs and 24 RBI, while Russell Martin is also among the team leaders with four round-trippers.

On the basepaths, although only playing in 19 games, Rafael Furcal still possesses the team lead with eight steals.

Kemp, depite being caught eight times, is second on the team with six stolen bases. Surprisingly, James Loney also has six steals to his credit.

Kemp is far and away the team leader with 34 runs scored. He also leads the team with 18 walks during the first quarter of the season.

Despite having above-average numbers in just about every single offensive category, the Dodgers still lack offensive consistency. When the bats are hot, they are unstoppable; but when the bats are tepid, they are pretty much lifeless.

Overall grade for batting: A-

Starting Pitching

Without  a doubt, starting pitching has been the biggest problem area for Los Angeles during the first quarter of the season.

Opening day starter Vicente Padilla, only had four starts to his credit before landing on the DL, and with the injury to their original fifth starter Charlie Haeger, the Dodgers are still suffering.

With a 4.45 overall earned-run-average, Los Angeles ranks 11th in the National League.

Surprisingly, they have a much better ERA on the road (4.07) compared to when pitching at home (4.86).

Coincidentally, the San Diego Padres have the lowest ERA in the NL at 2.74.

The Dodgers have a somewhat respectable batting-average-against figure, as they reflect the sixth lowest in the league with a mark of .252; however, Dodger opponents have thrived on bases on balls.

The Dodgers have the third highest total of free passes given with 159.

Los Angeles ranks third in the National League with 312 strikeouts.

Of the 199 total runs given up, 177 have been earned, which ranks sixth in the NL. Los Angeles does rank eighth in terms of quality starts at 20.

Individually, Hiroki Kuroda, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw all lead the team with eight starts. Rookie John Ely has chipped in with four games started.

Kuroda has the most wins with five, followed by Billingsley with four, and Kershaw with three.

Kuroda also leads the team with 53.1 innings pitched. Kershaw is credited with 45.2, while Billingsley recorded 44.2.

Another interesting statistic is pitches per start, where John Ely leads the team with 106.5, followed by Kershaw with 105.4, Kuroda with 98.6 and Billingsley with 92.1. 

Kershaw is first on the team with 52 strikeouts, while Kuroda and Billingsley are tied with 39 Ks apiece.

Kershaw is far and away leader among the starters with walks at 29, while Billingsley has given up 19, and Kuroda 14.

In terms of WHIP (walks+hits per inning), John Ely has the lowest among starters with a .94 mark. Hiroki Kuroda’s WHIP is 1.28, followed by Kershaw at 1.36 and Billingsley at 1.41.

Many Dodger fans still insist that Los Angeles needs to sign an additional starting pitcher, while some believe that the staff will be just fine upon the return of Padilla.

Seemingly, Ely has already earned a starting spot for the remainder of the season, but the looming question is what to do until Padilla does indeed return.

One tactic not yet explored by Manager Joe Torre is the use of a four-man rotation.

Regardless, the Dodgers need to show much more consistency with the starters if they plan to make a run at the NL West. 

Overall grade for starting pitching: C-

Bullpen

Despite having probably the most productive bullpen in the National League in 2009, the Dodger relievers have struggled for the vast majority of the first quarter of 2010.

Ronald Belisario started the season on the restricted list, but upon returning still hasn’t found his true form.

Corey Wade isn’t expected back until June, and the first quarter has been nothing but a nightmare for George Sherrill.

Ramon Troncoso has been very inconsistent, but still leads the Dodgers in appearances with 23.

Despite his misfortunes on the mound, Sherrill follows Troncoso with 21, followed by Jonathan Broxton with 16 and Jeff Weaver with 15 appearances.

The sole bright spot for the bullpen has been Broxton, who leads the team with a 1.15 ERA and 7 saves.

George Sherrill and Ronald Belisario rank the lowest among Dodger relievers in terms of ERA at 7.71 and 5.56 respectively.

Ramon Ortiz, who has been used both as a starter and a reliever posts a 6.30 earned-run average. Ortiz also leads all Dodgers pitchers with five homeruns surrendered.

Hong-Chih Kuo has been excellent since coming off of the disabled list, but continues to be used sparingly by Torre, due to his previous injury.

Kuo leads all Dodger pitchers with a .60 WHIP, followed by Broxton at .89. Sherrill posts a team-low 2.29 WHIP.

Carlos Monasterios, who has also been used as both a spot starter and a reliever, posts a 1.90 ERA in 12 total appearances.

In terms of innings pitched out of the bullpen, Troncoso leads the team with 20.2, followed by Broxton at 15.2 and Sherrill at 14.0.

Los Angeles has lost more than several games determined by poor efforts in the bullpen. There’s plenty of talent present; and only time will tell who will be the most productive set-up men for Broxton.

As Torre continues to use an inconsistent mix, look for more consistency in the near future.

Seeing less than stellar production from George Sherrill and Ramon Ortiz makes one wonder where their futures lie.

Overall grade for bullpen: D

Fielding

In 2009, with a healthy Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson up the middle, the Dodgers’ infield was among the best in the business. But with Furcal seeing limited duty due to a injured hamstring, and Hudson having moved on to the Minnesota Twins, the Dodgers had to bring in Blake DeWitt at second base, and Jamey Carroll has seen quite a bit of time at shortstop.

As a team, the Dodgers have made 28 errors, which is the sixth most in the NL.

Casey Blake leads the team with six errors, which is one less than Andy LaRoche, who leads all NL third baseman with seven. Jamey Carroll rounds out the infield with the second most errors with three.

In the outfield, Matt Kemp has the only two errors, both being very critical game-breakers when they occurred.

On a bright note, Xavier Paul has the only two assists made in the outfield all season.

Los Angeles has the 11th lowest fielding percentage overall in the NL at .981.

Look for the fielding statistics to improve when Furcal settles back into his normal role at shortstop.

Overall grade for fielding: C

Bench Play

Primarily, the Dodgers have used four players off of the bench: Ronnie Belliard, Reed Johnson, Garret Anderson, and Xavier Paul.

Of those four, Belliard has been the most productive with the bat, going 16 for 54 with nine RBI, registering a .296 average.

Xavier Paul is almost as impressive with a .278 average, going 10 for 36 overall.

Reed Johnson (.258 average) posts three doubles and a pair of triples while going 17 for 66.

Garret Anderson has the most disappointing numbers of the four with a meager .131 average, and has only eight base hits in 61 official at-bats.

If Anderson’s numbers don’t improve soon, there’s not much sense to keep him on the active roster. 

Anderson’s performance in the next month should determine his fate with the squad.

Overall grade for bench play: C

*****

Although the grades shown above are predominantly average or below, the Dodgers overall record is an indicator of how valuable the offense has been during the first quarter of the season.

Thus, the batting grade carries a higher weight than the other factors.

Heading into the second quarter, health will be an important factor for the success of the club.

With a minor foot injury to Manny Ramirez and Ethier out of the line-up, the Dodgers went into Wednesday night’s game against the Padres with a very thin outfield.

Pitching still remains a huge problem and many questions linger.

If the starters can indeed build consistency and stay healthy, look for Los Angeles to hover atop the NL West during the second quarter; assuming the bats stay somewhat warm.

Looking further into the third quarter, if the Dodgers can add some additional talent via trade without sacrificing too much, they should be a contender down the stretch. 

Overall grade for first quarter of the season: C+

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Baseball-reference has a stat that is rarely ever used: bequeathed runners. 

It’s the number of runners on base when a pitcher leaves the game.  Subsequently, there’s also a stat on how many of these runners score.  These runs are added to the starter’s ERA, even though the relief pitcher was pitching and, ultimately, allowed the runs to score. 

Want a full year of data? Look at the stats from 2009. 

Roy Halladay is the only starter who didn’t have a single bequeathed runner.  Think about that.  He started 32 games and left every single game without a runner on base.  Of course, leading the league in complete games helped.  His 2.79 ERA is a true representation of how he pitched.

On the opposite end are Jonathan Sanchez and Zach Miner who had 30 bequeathed runners apiece.  In Sanchez’ case, seven of them scored— his ERA ended up being 4.24. 

I’m not one to change stats, but I’ll do a “what if” here.  If none of Sanchez’ seven bequeathed runners would’ve scored, his ERA would have dropped to 3.86.  And if the Giants had an awful bullpen and all 30 of them would have scored, his ERA would skyrocket to 5.51. 

That’s a 1.65 range that his ERA could have fallen to.  Since less than half of the 30 scored, he was fortunate to be on the low end of that, but he could just easily have been on the high end.

Miner had a very similar ERA at 4.27, but 11 of his bequeathed runners scored.  Since he didn’t pitch as many innings as Sanchez, his range was higher.  His ERA could have been anywhere from 3.22 to 6.14; a difference of 2.92! 

Miner is an unusual case, since he only had 5 starts; the majority of bequeathed runs come from starters.  A pitcher’s bequeathed runners become another pitcher’s inherited runners, a more common stat that is used to gauge relievers.  Miner had 29 inherited runners and 10 of them scored; so I guess you could say his ERA is pretty accurate, as his 10 runs scored from inherited runners cancel out his 11 runs scored from bequeathed runners.  Are you as confused as I am? 

Who had the worst luck?  Probably Roy Oswalt.  11 of his 12 bequeathed runners scored.  His ERA would have fallen in the range of 3.57 to 4.17.  The low end of that was more in line of what was expected. 

The best luck?  A.J. Burnett.  Only 1 of his 19 bequeathed runners scored.  His ERA range was between 4.00 and 4.83. 

Another Yankee, Joba Chamberlain also had good luck, only 1 of his 14 bequeathed runner scored.  His ERA range was from 4.69 to 5.49.  The Yankees bullpen was really good (3.91 ERA) so this is understandable.

I could keep going on with other examples, but you get the idea. 

What does this all mean?  Not much. It’s a very interesting statistic, but l ike I said, I’m not one to change stats. 

This could, however, be a useful tool in fantasy baseball strategies. 

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Besides Paul Maholm, Zach Duke is the longest serving Pirate. And he is still hard to typecast.

On a good night, he is capable of beating a Cy Young award winner like the New York Mets’ Johan Santana, or the Phillies Roy Halladay. On a bad day, he can be truly awful.

An example of this was Duke’s last outing against Cincinnati. He gave up five runs, two of them homers, in five innings, for a 9.00 ERA.

Last night, Halladay pitched a quality start against the Pirates, two runs in a complete game, a basically “average” performance—for him. He’s done both better (fewer runs in the same nine innings), and worse (the same two runs in fewer innings).

Given that he struck out six and walked one, nine hits and two runs represented an “average expectation.”

But on a pro rata basis at least, Duke pitched even better: one run on six hits in six innings, while striking out five. Last night was one of his better nights, meaning that’s an atypical performance for him.

And given the shutout relief that has been the staple of the Pirates’ bullpen, that was good enough for a win. One might argue that Duke, who didn’t pitch as long, wasn’t better than Halladay. But Duke and the bullpen clearly were.

The Pirates had just enough offense to win. Back to back doubles by Andy LaRoche and Ryan Doumit accounted for the first run. An RBI single by Garrett Jones, who had three hits, scored the second (Lastings Milledge from second base).

Tonight’s matchup, in Pittsburgh against the Milwaukee Brewers, could tell a similar story. The Brewers’ Randy Wolf will be facing Brian Burres. They have similar ERAs, between 4.50 and 5.00, but the similarity ends there.

Wolf’s ERA has a normal consistency around the trendline. Burres is the exact opposite, with a 0.00 ERA in his best two games totalling 12.1 innings, and a 9.25 ERA in his worst three outings totalling 13 innings. It’s either feast or famine against him.

Statistically, such a wide dispersion of outcomes, weighted toward both ends, is a property called skewness. This is a pattern exhibited in an extreme form by Charlie Morton.

But other Pirate pitchers are not far behind in this regard. For now, at least, the team has a whole rotation of “Charlie Mortons.”

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By now the amazing season that Justin Morneau is having isn’t just a well-kept secret in the Minnesota area. Indeed, there are dozens of baseball fans outside of the Twin Cities buzzing about Morneau’s performance. 

But there is more than meets the eye to the season Morneau is having, and Morneau’s numbers are, I dare say, more impressive than they seem.

For the record, Morneau is currently the American League leader in all of your RSL categories, with a .374 average, a .491 on-base percentage, a .710 slugging percentage, and a 1.201 OPS.  He also leads the AL in OPS+ with a  robust 225, and in bases-on-balls with 30.

This has translated well into the SABRmetrics as well: Morneau leads the majors in WAR, runs created, adjusted batting runs, adjusted batting wins, offensive winning percentage, and situational wins added.

And consider this crazy factoid: Morneau already has more adjusted batting runs in 2010, through 36 games played, than he did in all of 2009, in 135 games.

I don’t know what any of that means, but it seems to me that he is dominating baseball.

Now, if you’re paying attention to the Minnesota Twins at all, then the first thing that occurred to you when I read you all of those numbers is: It must be the new ballpark. It was certainly the first thing that occurred to me. If Morneau is a new player, and he has become that new player in the first season in his new home park, then the new home park must be responsible. Right?

And that, my friends, is where this gets interesting. Let’s take a little trip down to Splitsville and examine just what effect Morneau’s new home park has had on him.

Justin Morneau has played 18 games at home and 18 games on the road. In 18 home games, he has 77 plate appearances. In 18 road games, he has 84 plate appearances.

Homeruns: Justin Morneau has hit 11 homeruns this season.  Nine of them have come on the road.

RBI: Justin Morneau has 29 RBI on the season in 2010.  20 of them have come on the road.

Hits: Morneau has 49 hits this season, 27 of which have come on the road (as opposed to 22 at home).  Of his nine doubles this season, six have come on the road.

Walks and Strikeouts: Morneau has drawn 30 walks and struck out 28 times this season.  Curiously, 17 of his have come at home, while his strikeouts have been split evenly.

Total Bases: Morneau has had 33 of his 93 total bases—just less than a third—at home.

RSL Stats: Morneau’s batting average and on-base percentage are roughly even at home and on the road—.367/.380 and .506/.476—but get this: because of the doubles and homerun advantages on the road, his slugging percentage is nearly 300 points higher on the road—.550/.845—which has roughly the same effect on his OPS—1.056/1.321.

If you’ve paid any attention to Justin Morneau’s career, you anticipated his numbers going up this season because, well, it is an even numbered year. Just like Alex Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, and Bret Saberhagen before him, Justin Morneau is one of the most drastic every-other-season guys in baseball.

Check out this stat: Morneau’s OPS and batting runs numbers have never increased or decreased in consecutive seasons during his career. Even numbered years are always up seasons, and odd numbered years are always down seasons:

Nevertheless, there is no way anyone could have anticipated an “up” year quite like this one.

So what does it all mean?

Short story: Justin Morneau is playing the best ball in the American League despite actually being hurt by his own home park.  Considering the fact that he is currently third in the major leagues with 11 homeruns, it would appear that if he’d played all his games on the road so far this season, he would be running away with a homerun crown.

More importantly, though, it means that Justin Morneau has escaped a nasty American League trend. Remember, Justin Morneau’s 2009 season was curtailed in mid-September when he was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his back, and he ended up missing the last two weeks of the season as well as the Twins’ improbably run to the playoffs.

But so far in 2010, Morneau has made it clear that he is fully recovered from his injury, and he has also loudly declared that any dip in his numbers last season were the result of injuries, and not an indication that he is anything but one of the elite hitters in the American League.

We’re listening Justin. There are dozens of us who can hear you loud and clear.

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When someone asks who is one of baseball’s best closers, Mariano Rivera is among the first names on that list, and rightfully so. His career ERA is in the top 15 all time, and his ERA-plus is easily the greatest all time, not to mention his save numbers, and World Series rings as a member of the New York Yankees.

So what’s left for this dominant relief pitcher to accomplish at 40? How about holding a 0.00 ERA as long as he did.

After Minnesota Twins slugger Jason Kubel’s grand slam on Sunday off Rivera tabbed him with the loss, he was the second-to-last reliever  to lose his perfect ERA to start the season, losing only to Baltimore’s Will Ohman.

This is the third time Rivera has kept a perfect ERA until mid-May. In 1998, he lost it on May 14 against the Texas Rangers, his 11th game, and in 2008, he lost it on May 13, his 15th game, against the Tampa Bay Rays. Then today, in his 13th relief appearance, he given up his first earned runs of the season.

That being said, he had never gotten as far as May 16 with a perfect year intact, and this just shows how phenomenal a pitcher that he is. Pitchers occasionally make it this far on a fluke once, but they don’t three times unless they are just that good.

As there is no need to make this a long speech about how good he is, since most folks already know that, so let’s just look at a few facts— both interesting and somewhat random— from Rivera’s performance this season in comparison to his previous ones.

First, in 1998 and 2008, the two teams he lost his perfect ERA to won their division. It looks like it will be 3-for-3 with Minnesota taking the Central.

Second, even after that, his current ERA of 1.59 is the best of his career. This asks the question, how far could he go? Could he play until he’s 45? He’s clearly as dominant as he’s always been, so that’s a possibility.

Third, his WHIP of 0.617 is the best of his career. Not only that, but WHIPs like that just don’t exist in baseball statistics. That’s how good it is. All-time leader Addie Joss’s best was .806, and Ed Walsh, second all-time, and just ahead of Rivera in WHIP, had his best at .820. Rivera, meanwhile, has a previous best of .665.

What I’m trying to explain is simple. Even with his illustrious career, Rivera is still on pace for a personal best season, as well as an all-time great relief season.

There’s really nothing to compare his performances to, given that amazing pitching seasons are still inherently kept in the camp of starting pitchers.

If Andy Pettite or Phil Hughes were to slump away, could this be the year that Rivera wins a Cy Young? He’s certainly deserving of one, and that really is the one crown jewel missing from his career.

Rambling aside, I leave the questions to you: If he keeps this up, should he get the Cy Young Award this season? How about his Hall Of Fame credentials, has he shown enough to get in on the first ballot

Or will the bias against relievers keep him away for a couple years?

Sure, it’s May 2010, but with Mariano Rivera, we know he’s going to be great (we can write 2007 off as an off year by now), so it’s not too early to think of this.

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I’m going to start this piece by stating the following: Yes, I’m aware it’s only May 12, and therefore, “on pace” articles are always rebutted with “It’s only been ___ number of games!”

Regardless, part of the fun in sports in projecting things. So that’s what I’m here to do.

Brett Gardner of the New York Yankees stole his 15th base in the first game of a double-header against the Detroit Tigers. Gardner’s only been caught once, and his current projection is for 80 steals in 85 attempts.

The raw steal numbers are impressive enough. The last player to steal at least 80 in a season? Rickey Henderson in 1988. You may have heard of him.

Vince Coleman stole 80 that year as well. Stolen bases are just not as prevalent now compared to in Henderson’s time, so stealing 80 bases is nothing to sneeze at.

But more impressive is the success rate. Gardner’s 93.7% success rate is astounding. According to baseball-reference.com, the highest SB rate for players with at least 80 steals was Vince Coleman’s 88.4% in 1986. (I’m assuming players like Ty Cobb were thrown out stealing in the 1910’s and the data just wasn’t kept/isn’t available).

The fewest caught stealings by a player with 80 steals? Henderson, who stole 80 bases and was caught just 10 times in 1985.

In the year Henderson stole 130 bases, he was caught 42 times, for a success rate of 75.5%. Likewise, Lou Brock was only successful on 78.1% of his attempts when he stole 118 bases in 1974.

There’s a metric devised that looks at the value of steals vs. caught stealings, so if you want to debate whether going 80-for-85 is more or less valuable than going 130-for-172, feel free.

As for Gardner, it’s unlikely he’ll keep his current pace up. He’s not going to finish the season with a .416 on-base percentage, and it goes without saying that the fewer times he’s on base, the fewer bases he’ll steal.

But for now, Gardner’s on a run unlike anything we’ve seen in recent years. Even current speedsters Jose Reyes, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford don’t keep that pace.

Reyes was successful on only 78% of his attempts in his best year, (78-for-99 in 2007), Crawford on 85.6% (58-for-67) and Ellsbury 85.3% (70-for-82)

But if Gardner can keep up this pace, he’ll find himself in pretty elite company.

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Well thus far he’s a winner.

A native of Illinois, John Ely was drafted by the Chicago White Sox out of the University of Miami (Ohio).

Ely started his professional career in 2007 at Great Falls of the Pioneer League, part of the Chicago White Sox farm system. The 21-year-old was impressive in 56 innings, going 6-1 while walking just six batters.

Following the 2007 season, Ely was promoted to Single-A at Winston-Salem. His tour through the Single-A system was the roughest for Ely, finishing 10-12 with a 4.71 ERA. Despite the high ERA and adverse record, scouts saw something in him and promoted him to Double-A Birmingham.

In the middle of his best professional season at Double-A, Ely was dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers along with Jon Link. The move sent Juan Pierre to the Chicago White Sox, a team desperate for a solid, every day outfielder at the top of the lineup.

Had the White Sox known they would find themselves ranking 22nd in Major League Baseball in ERA after 30 games, they may have been more hesitant to deal the young righty.

Ely has provided a much needed boost in the Dodgers’ rotation and the team record shows that. Following a very rough ML debut against the Mets, in which Ely surrendered five runs in six innings, he has made two starts. In those two starts, Ely has allowed just three runs in 12.2 innings while collecting his first major league win.

With Vicente Padilla likely out until mid-June at the earliest, the Dodgers now have two available spots in their rotation. Expect Ely to be around for a while, and Dodgers fans should be just fine with that.

After three starts, Ely is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA; not dominating statistics but remove his first start and he is a welcomed break from Charlie Haeger and Padilla’s 2010 campaign.

Ely’s next start is scheduled for May 17th against the Houston Astros at Dodger Stadium.

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A (hopefully) monthly look at the Tribe’s performance from a variety of statistical angles. Suggestions for additional stats and categories are welcome – just let me know.

Overall

Pythagorean Record

One of the most popular judges of a team’s performance is their Pythagorean record. “Pythag” is so named because the formula used looks similar to the Pythagorean formula used on right triangles. Pythag uses runs scored and runs allowed to determine a predicted record. Generally, teams that over perform their Pythags are considered lucky, and those that underperformed are considered unlucky. However, small-ball teams like the Angels and Twins consistently over perform their Pythagorean records for reasons saberists have trouble explaining. Likewise, Eric Wedge‘s teams traditionally underperformed their Pythagorean record. That may be because those teams sprinkled 15-run wins between seven-game losing streaks. So, it will be interesting to see how Manny Acta‘s teams perform against Pythag. So far, the Indians Pythagorean record (which can be found on MLB.com’s standings page by turning on the “X W-L” category) is exactly the same as their actual record, 11-18.

Playoff Odds

Several sites offer odds of a team making the playoffs. One such site is CoolStandings.com, which currently has the Indians at a 1.4 percent chance to win the division and a 0.5 percent chance to win the wild card. Baseball Prospectus is a little more optimistic. Their projections, explained at the bottom of the linked page, have the Indians at 3 percent to win the division and 0.9 percent to win the wild card.

“Wins in the Bank” and the Gambler’s Fallacy

Several sites also post pre-season standings projections. This is where the “gambler’s fallacy” comes in. BaseballProjection.com has the Indians going 81-81 on the season, yet they have gone 11-18 so far. Someone following the gambler’s fallacy would think that the Tribe will go 70-63 the rest of the season to finish 81-81. In fact, Chone’s projection should be thought of as a winning percentage, not a definite number of wins and losses. That is, we should accept the fact that the Indians are 11-18, and assume they will play .500 ball (81 wins/162 games) the rest of the way. That means the Indians should expect to win 66-67 of their remaining 133 games

Pitching

BABIP

One of the most consistent statistics in baseball is a pitcher’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The more a pitcher throws, the more his BABIP will settle in the .270-.290 range. This is true for nearly all pitchers, with only rare exceptions like knuckleballer Tim Wakefield and control specialist Greg Maddux. That being said, if you see a pitcher with a high BABIP early in the season, you can expect that BABIP – and his overall performance – to improve.

Conversely, pitchers with a low BABIP can expect an increase. According to Fangraphs, David Huff, Jensen Lewis, and Aaron Laffey are already in the .270-.290 range. That’s good news for all three, as they have pitched fairly well this season (outside of Huff’s win-loss record), and should expect that performance to continue. Cleveland’s two best starters, Fausto Carmona and Mitch Talbot, have been beneficiaries of BABIPs in the .250s, and can look forward to some minor regression. The same goes for relievers Chris Perez and Tony Sipp.

Meanwhile, Joe Smith and Jamey Wright should see their already high ERAs rise with their BABIPs. Jake Westbrook and Justin Masterson should see their traditional numbers improve as their BABIPs decrease; as should Rafael Perez and Kerry Wood, which is good news for their respective ERAs. Hector Ambriz, pitching well by traditional measures, should only get better as his BABIP lowers. Not bad for a Rule V pickup.

Fielding Independent Pitching

While BABIP looks only at balls put into play, fielding independent pitching (FIP) does the opposite. FIP looks at walks, strikeouts, and home runs – the three things that are supposedly the pitcher’s responsibility. In other words, FIP looks at those things that can’t be affected by the quality of the defense. FIP is calculated on the same scale as ERA, so the two can be compared easily. If a pitcher’s FIP is lower than his ERA, he can expect improvement, and vice-versa. Of course the major caveat here is that if a pitcher plays with the same defense all year, how much can it really improve? The bad news is that everyone except Wright, Masterson, Perez, and Wood are posting FIPs lower than their ERAs. The even worse news is that Wright’s FIP is only 0.40 points lower, and Wood’s is based on only one inning of work.

Hitting

Lineup Analysis

BABIP can be used to study a hitter’s luck. But unlike pitchers BABIP, hitter’s BABIP normalizes to the hitter’s past performance; not an overall league average. I’ll leave that as an exercise to the reader. Instead, for hitters we’ll again refer to Dave Pinto’s lineup analysis tool. Plugging in the top nine Indians in terms of OPS, here are the results. The lineup is certainly plausible in terms of defensive alignment and batting order, assuming Russell Branyan can still play some outfield. This theoretical lineup would score 5.232 runs per game, much better than the 3.8 the team is currently scoring. That’s an extra 232 runs for the year, or 23 wins. Of course, that’s based on some small sample sizes, even for the regulars.

For more Indians statistical analysis, visit Kanka’s Sports Page.

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1.(↑1) New York Yankees (21-8): The “Bronx Bombers” edge out the Rays this week by just three points (249 to 246) for the first place spot. Yankees fans have a lot to cheer about as their team is in the top 10 in every category, with the exception of strikeouts. They’re doing this without Curtis Granderson in the lineup and with Javier Vazquez doing everything he can to ruin their ERA. Scary!

2.(↓1) Tampa Bay Rays (22-9): The Rays took a beating on offense today as Dallas Braden threw a perfect game against them. It was their second consecutive loss to the A’s, but they have won six of their last 10 overall. They lead the MLB in RBI (172), wins (22), and WHIP (1.15).

3. (↑4) Toronto Blue Jays (19-14): So much for the Blue Jays falling back with the Orioles in the AL East. The Jays have some serious talent. They came back from a two-run deficit today to beat the White Sox in the ninth inning, and they lead the league with 50 home runs—seven more than the White Sox. Ricky Romero gave up some runs today, but he is a legitimate No. 1 for the Jays.

4.(↔) Minnesota Twins (21-11): The Twins have a 3.5 game lead over the Tigers in the AL Central and have won seven of their last 10. The Twins scored a respectable 219 points in this week’s FPR while not leading in any category but have scored over 100 in both hitting (108) and pitching (111).

5.(↑1) St. Louis Cardinals (20-12): The Cardinals didn’t score in the bottom 10 of any category while putting up 122 pitching points. They have the league’s best ERA but can they produce enough runs? St. Louis isn’t exactly a fast team and with only a .259 team batting average, they need to improve upon their middle-of-the-pack .409 slugging percentage.

6.(↓3) San Diego Padres (19-12): The Padres look pretty good with guys like Chase Headley (.325, 20 runs, and 9 steals) helping Adrian Gonzalez. Their young pitching is looking sharp with a 2.73 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

7.(↑2) San Francisco Giants (18-12): As we expected, the Giants have the best pitching in the league. One hundred thirty six pitching points and scoring in the top eight in every category keep them in the top 10. I see the Giants as real contenders this year, regardless of what their offense looks like.

8.(↑11) Philadelphia Phillies (19-12): The Phillies, as I predicted, move back into the top 10 this week while being the week’s biggest movers. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins continues his rehab assignment and should be back fairly soon, while Jayson Werth is putting up career numbers (.349/7/26).

9.(↑6) Milwaukee Brewers (15-16): The Brewers are the only team below .500 in the top 10 and it’s not because of their pitching (63 points). Milwaukee ranks in the top four in average, RBI, and runs for a total of 127 batting points. If they can find a closer and another decent starter they could be contenders. But, they probably won’t!

10.(↑3) Texas Rangers (18-14): Elvis Andrus is a stolen base machine (13), which is why the Rangers scored the third-most points in that category; however, they scored the most points with saves this week. Good thing Ron Washington isn’t doing drugs this year and has Feliz as the closer, or they may not have gotten 29 points with their 12 saves in 17 chances. Frank Francisco has three of those blown saves.

For full rankings and PDF chart visit www.FantasyBaseballSportal .com

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