Kuzul

You look at the Cubs’ record, and you can’t help but grimace. Their record, 14-17, is right in line with their Pythagorean Record, 15-16. The Cubs struggle somewhat in one-run games, going 3-6 in such contests.

The Cubs struggle mightily on the road, going 7-11 on road games, as opposed to 7-6 at Wrigley.

Let’s gander at their pitching.

The Cubs are actually pitching very well. They are first in the league in strike-outs per walk, and boast the best Contact Percentage.

The starting pitching has preserved the bullpen well, limiting the relievers to the fourth least innings-pitched in the National League. That has led to the fourth-best relief Runs Above Replacement, even with negative efforts from Jeff Gray, John Grabow, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, and Jeff Samardzija.

On the flip side, none of the starters are posting negative seasonal RAR efforts. All in all, the Cubs have the fourth-best RAR in the National League, behind the Cardinals, Rockies, and Giants—all great pitching staffs.

You look at their team ERA (4.50), and it’s slightly below average. Why?

Well, looking at their batted ball statistics, you’ll see that they are 14th in the leage in both batting average on balls in play (.326, .300 is the average) and left on base percent (66.3%, 71% is the average).

So looking at those two stats, you could say that the Cubs are a bit unlucky. A nifty little stat, Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) adjusts for that, giving the Cubs a 3.87 xFIP, good enough for second in the league.

Maybe their fielding is the problem.

The Cubs are decent enough fielders, maybe even above average. They rank fifth in UZR and fielding RAR in the league.

That can’t be the problem, what about their hitting?

The Cubs are fourth in the league in batting Runs Above Replacement level, second in walks per strikeouts, and third in average, OPS, and wOBA, which is widely accepted in sabermetric circles as the premier batting statistic.

The glaring issue with their batting seems to be timely hitting. Their clutch rating (which measures how well hitters perform in late innings, runners in scoring position, and such) is dead last in the majors , at -2.86. The next “best” is the Brewers at -1.12. Needless to say, the Cubs need to pick it up in the clutch.

If they can perform at even a league average level in high leverage situations, the Cubs could push for a good shot at the wild card.

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The old baseball adage is that pitching and defense wins championships. That being the case, the Minnesota Twins appear to be going in the right direction in 2010.

The starting pitching, led by Francisco Liriano, appears to be the strongest and deepest staff the Twins have had in ten seasons. Four of the starters have spent their entire major-league careers with the Twins. Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey have all been a part of the rotation since 2008.

They average four years of experience with an average age of 27. Baker is the elder statesman at 28, and is in his sixth season with the Twins.

In 2009 the Twins added Carl Pavano, who in his 14th major league season, adds a veteran presence to the rotation.

Comparing the success of the starting pitching in 2010 over the past ten seasons confirms that this is a strong staff. The starters are pitching deeper in games with an average of 6.33 innings per start—the third highest since 2000.

With two complete games already this year, the 2010 staff has more complete games than the 2001 staff and almost half as many as any team since 2007.  

Manager Ron Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson appear to have increased confidence in their starters, allowing them to go longer in their starts and throwing more pitches.

The starters have averaged 96 pitches per start while exceeding the 100-pitch count ten times already this season.

Liriano has thrown at least 92 pitches in every start and 123 against Cleveland in his last start. This many pitches is almost unheard of for a Twins’ pitcher.  

Gardenhire’s confidence was very much on display in a recent game against Detroit. With the Twins leading 3—2, he sent Blackburn out in the ninth allowing him to get the win and the complete game.

With Jon Rauch having converted eight of nine save opportunities, it could not have been due to lack of confidence in the first year closer.

The pitching staff is getting the job done. It is currently third in the AL in ERA at 3.60, and second in all of Major League Baseball with only 76 walks allowed.

Liriano, at one time considered for closer, has become the staff’s stopper with a 4-0 record and a 1.50 ERA. In three of five starts, Liriano has earned the victory following a Twins’ loss.  

If the starters can continue to pitch effectively and stay healthy, the Twins will cruise to another AL Central Division title and a great chance of getting past the divisional round of the playoffs.

Miscellaneous observations and questions:

• After going seven for eight in his first two games Wilson Ramos has cooled to one for 11 the past three. What will the Twins do when Joe Mauer returns? Could one of these two end up playing third base, adding some power to the lineup?
• With depth in the starting rotation and pitchers Jeff Manship and Brian Duensing appearing ready to join the rotation, is there a chance that Pavano will be playing for his sixth team?
• How long will Twins’ fans have to wait for Justin Morneau’s first Target field home run?
• When will Michael Cuddyer hit his first road home run?

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There’s something quite odd about Derek Jeter.

I don’t mean the fact that he’s seemingly ageless, or that he’s actually a somewhat-likeable guy despite being the captain of the most evil group of players ever to walk onto a baseball field.

I am referring to the fact that the numbers Jeter has accrued so far this season simply don’t make any sense.

In the interest of full disclosure, I haven’t seen Jeter play very much this year. As a Red Sox fan from Cleveland, I don’t get many opportunities to see the Yankees, and I don’t particularly care about them unless they’re losing.

Looking at his statistics, though, it’s clear that something really weird is going on.

For starters, Jeter has suddenly become a power hitter. He’s on pace for 26 home runs—he’s never hit more than 24 in a season—and 130 RBI (he’s reached triple-digits only once in his career). His ISO (.176, compared to his .142 career mark) is his best since 2004, and he’s slugging over .500 for the first time this millennium.

The obvious explanation for this would be that Jeter is hitting more fly balls, and that the supposedly unforeseen wind patterns at Yankee Stadium (come on, does anyone really think that was an accident?) are assisting his power surge. You’d be half-right; all of his homers so far have come at home, where he holds a comically and unsustainably inflated 58.6 percent HR/FB rate.

But the fly ball thing? Totally wrong. While almost half (44 percent) of Jeter’s hits have been in the air over his career, just 29 percent of his batted balls in 2010 have been fly balls or line drives. His 71 percent ground-ball rate is by far the highest in the majors; no one else with a GB rate over 60 percent has more than two homers. So basically, Jeter doesn’t hit fly balls except when they turn into home runs.

Confused yet? It gets weirder.

Never a terribly patient hitter to begin with (9.0 percent career BB rate), Jeter has taken just five free passes so far for a miserable walk rate of 4.6 percent.

The reason for this is obvious: he’s swinging at garbage. Jeter has chased less than 20 percent of pitches out of the zone since tracking began in 2002. This year, he’s swinging at roughly a third (33 percent) of what would otherwise be called balls.

In other words, he’s about 60 percent more likely to take a hack at a bad pitch than he normally is. That’s roughly the difference between Kevin “Greek God of Walks” Youkilis and Yuniesky “Worst Player in Baseball” Betancourt.

You’d think that such a change would have an inflationary effect on his strikeout numbers, right?

Wrong. Just like his walk rate, his strikeout rate (8.8 percent) is by far the lowest of his career and just over half his overall mark (16.8 percent).

How is this possible? Despite the fact that Jeter is swinging at more bad pitches than ever, he’s making contact at the best rate (88.4 percent) of his career.

You read that correctly—he’s putting the bat on more balls than ever in spite of (or maybe, somehow, because of) the collapse of his plate discipline.

Does your brain hurt? Don’t be alarmed; that indicates only that you are still sane.

Let’s recap: at age 34, Jeter has found his power stroke while simultaneously hitting more grounders than Major League’s Willie Mays Hayes. Meanwhile, his plate discipline has gone down the toilet, but he’s making the best contact of his career.

I hope someone who has watched Jeter more than I have would be able to provide some answers. But from here, it seems that something is rotten in the state of New York.

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Last year, you might recall I had a season-long series on the art of the stolen base and whether or not we’ll ever see a 100-steal man again.

While I have my doubts, I will however be continuing that monthly column update with yearly totals so look for that at the beginning of each month for the rest of the season.

With that here is the first installment of 2010:

The top-five base stealers as of May 1, 2010 were:

1. Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

Stole 10 bases in 11 attempts in April for a team that outside of the brief Rickey Henderson years, historically doesn’t emphasize or promote base stealing.

Based on that fact and 100 years of evidence, expect Gardner, while young and exciting, to taper off to around 40 steals by year’s end as the Yankees philosophy has always been to favor power over speed and what is called “small ball”, which has to be seen as an insult to the mighty Yankees.

10 steals in 11 attempts through 23 games (15-8 team record). On pace for 73.

2. Rajai Davis, Oakland Athletics

Like Bourn before him, Davis came on very strong late last year stealing 15 of 18 in August and 11 of 14 in September, to finish fifth in Major League Baseball.

When you consider that the A’s have a history of letting their players run, and the fact Davis lasted this long in Oakland which I had doubted (see previous link) then you have to like his chances this year. Finally, 26 of his final 32 being successful 81 percent is just about his season average from last year (77%), suggesting he hasn’t lost a step.

10 bases in 10 attempts in April through 25 games (13-12 team record). On pace for 66.

3. Michael Bourn, Houston Astros

On a team with not much to cheer for, Bourn will be a season-long bright spot. 

The man not only stole a career best 61 bags last year but got better as the season went on. That’s promising for this year when you consider last year at this time he had six in April.

Stole 9 bases in 11 attempts in April through 23 games (8-15 team record). On pace for 71.

4. Juan Pierre, Chicago White Sox

Pierre hasn’t seen this kind of speed since stealing a career high 64, in 2007 with the L.A. Dodgers, who, like the White Sox are a historically pedestrian team.

Still, if Pierre can stay healthy, productive, and be in the Sox lineup, he should do fine. If the team continues to struggle he could he dealt for help so his future production may have to be readjusted based on his new team’s philosophy.

But for now, sit back and watch him run.

Stole 9 bases in 12 attempts in April through 24 games (10-14 team record). On pace for 87.

5. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

We saw Nyger Morgan accidentally do too well in the Steel City, and thus he forced his way out of town in a never-ending mill of prospect exchange.

While that fate seems inevitable for the young (23), exciting, and affordable McCutchen, right now he’s all the perpetual cellar-dwelling Pirates have.

Enjoy him while you can Pirates fans…both of you. That’s all I have to say.

Stole 10 bases in 12 attempts in April through 24 games (10-14 team record) on pace for 65.

There you have it, the first installment of the 2010 “Stolen Base series”.

Note the new faces. We’ll have to see how long they stick around. Early trends show while it will be a ‘slow’ year on the base paths.

Twenty players currently have 6 steals or more and thus, are on pace for over 50 steals! (52 to be exact).

So while the quantity of exceptional runners has gone down, allowing them to separate from the pack like in most years, the quantity of runners in general hoping to “keep up” has gone up creating even more new faces of intrigue as we try and guess who may take over the torch of this lost art.

Be sure to check back around June 1, and the first of every month, for a continuation on this season-long look into this lost art, one of my favorite in baseball, and all of professional sports.

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It seems like Cole Hamels is in for another long season. Maybe he should be working on his mechanics instead of starring in Comcast Xfinity commercials.

Well, things aren’t always as they appear.

After five starts, Hamels has an ugly 5.28 ERA and an even uglier 1.47 WHIP. He’s tied for the Major League lead in home runs allowed (7) and his walk rate is up to 2.93 BB/9 from his usual 2.00 to 2.10 rate. Despite those numbers, Hamels really hasn’t been too bad.

Through 30.2 innings, Hamels has endured a gaudy 20.6 percent HR/FB rate. While Citizens Bank Park is known as a hitter’s haven, Hamels has never had a HR/FB rate over 12.8 percent and he’s likely to be a few percentage points below that.

His terrible HR/FB rate is masking the fact that Hamels is actually allowing the same number of fly balls this season (38.6%). Even more encouraging, his GB% is up to 46.6 percent and his LD% is down six points to 14.8 percent.

Despite the lower LD% and higher GB%, Hamels’ BABIP is a sky-high .357. Even when Hamels was allowing more line drives his BABIP had never topped .325.

Clearly, Lady Luck has not resided in Philly.

Digging even deeper, Hamels has also induced swings at pitches outside the strike zone more this season than he ever has in his career (31.6%) and opposing batters are making less contact than at any point in the last three seasons (54.7%).

Because all of that data is hard to look at in paragraph form, take a look at this chart:

Hamels will turn his season around once things even out because five starts isn’t even close to a great sample size. Don’t be discouraged and most of all, don’t worry about Cole Hamels.

And don’t forget to check back to Baseball Professor for more daily baseball analysis.

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In 41 games with the White Sox last season, Alex Rios had a line of 11/.199/3/9/5.

Gross.

In just 22 games this season, Rios has already reached his home run and RBI totals with the White Sox last season with 10 runs, nine steals, and a triple-slash line of .276/.326/.470.

Rios hasn’t had a SLG that high since 2007, and his .294 BABIP (career .319) suggests all three of those numbers should improve accordingly.

Taking from an article George wrote the other day , let’s look at some good and bad signs from early in Rios’ 2010 season:

Good Signs

.276/.326/.470 triple-slash with just a .296 BABIP, .357 wOBA, 6.7 BB percentage (best since ‘07), 0.50 BB:K (best since ‘07), 19.7 LD, 2.01 wFB/C, and a 85.8 contact percentage.

Like we said above, the .296 BABIP is a little low for Rios, so improvement in all triple-slash categories is realistic.

Even better, his walk rate, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and line drive percentage are all in line with pre-2009 numbers and are his best since 2007.

This indicates his numbers aren’t unsustainable and could/should continue for the rest of the season.

If you don’t know what OBA is, think of it as a more accurate form of OPS where higher equals better. Rios’ wOBA is good for 78th in the league and 25th among all OF.

Here’s another advanced metric: wFB/C. Basically, it’s just his ability to hit fastballs.

Anything over zero is above average, anything below is below average, and generally numbers over 1.00 are considered pretty good. Rios’ wFB/C rating are right around his 2006 and 2007 values.

Lastly, the contact numbers. His contact percentage is easily his career best and indicate he’s seeing the ball well.

Warning Signs

-2.72 wSL/C, -2.20 wCB/C, 31.1 O-Swing Percentage

It’s not unusual for Rios to struggle with sliders and curveballs, but these numbers are really low. In fact, they resembled his 2005 numbers when he finished with a triple-slash of .262/.306/.397.

His O-Swing percentage (percentage of pitches outside the strike zone he swings at) is the highest of his career. While right now he is making contact with these pitches at a career-best rate, that will be a trend that’s difficult to continue.

Are the steals legitimate?

I wouldn’t be expecting nine steals a month from Rios, but he swiped 32 in 2008 and 24 last year in a season when he managed just a .296 OBP.

The way the White Sox are letting him run, 35-plus seems inevitable, and with his annual 15-plus home runs, he’ll be looking at a home run/stolen base combo of over 50.

Anyone who combines for 50-plus home runs and steals, has a solid .280-plus average, and has run and RBI totals over 80 is alright with me.

Finally, that Rios is back.

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The Cubs begin May 3 with an average—at best—record of 13-13 and find themselves 4.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals (17-8) in the National League Central.

Starting pitching remains the team’s strong suit. But if you haven’t noticed, the Cubs—outside of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez—are starting to hit.

Chicago spent the first two weeks of the season at the bottom of nearly every major offensive category, but the team is now second in the National League in hitting at .278. Only the Arizona Diamondbacks (.476) have a higher slugging percentage than the Cubs (.445).

There’s no reason to believe the Cubs will continue to hit at this kind of pace, but it’s closer to what many expected from one of the more talented lineups in the NL—at least on paper.

If the hitting continues at even a fraction of this pace and the pitching stays on course, Chicago should have no problem keeping above .500 in a weak NL Central—outside of the Cardinals.

For your enjoyment, here’s a collection of stats of the first month-plus from a .500 ball club.

Hit parade: Ryan Theriot leads the NL with 39 hits. Marlon Byrd is second with 35.

Strong start: In 2009, Kosuke Fukudome hit .338 with four home runs and 14 RBI in April. He finished the year with 11 home runs and 54 RBI. This April, Fukudome batted .344 with five home runs and 16 RBI.

Lou Piniella likes to share: Fukudome has played in all 26 games this year. Byrd has played in 25, and Alfonso Soriano and Tyler Colvin have both played in 24.

Around the bases: Soriano and Byrd are second in the NL with 15 extra-base hits.

Six-hole magic: Batting in the sixth spot, Soriano is on pace to hit 37 home runs, score 93 runs, and drive in 105 RBI. He’s also on pace for 93 strikeouts, which would be his lowest ever in a full season.

Base hogs: Geovany Soto leads the NL with a .487 OBP. Fukudome is third with a .438 OBP.

Hit-men not hitting: Lee and Ramirez aren’t in the top 10 of any major offensive category. That’s not good when seven of the team’s 13 losses have come by one or two runs.

League leaders: The Cubs have three of the top 10 NL leaders in batting average (Theriot, Byrd, and Fukudome) and four in the top 15 (Soriano).

Nasty stuff: Carlos Marmol is third in the NL with 17.76 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s struck out three batters in four of his 10 appearances and two or more seven times.

Biz Z big in the ‘pen:  Chicago is 3-0 in games that Carlos Zambrano has appeared in as a reliever. Zambrano is 12th in the NL with 4.20 pitches per plate appearance.

Overworked: Sean Marshall has made the third most appearances in the National League with 14, and John Grabow has made the sixth most with 13.

Can’t get any relief: Opposing batters are hitting .349 against Grabow. In 30 games with the Cubs in 2009, opposing batters hit just .209 off the lefty. Grabow walked 12 batters in 25 innings with the Cubs in ’09, but he has already allowed five walks in 9.2 innings this year.

Dealing: Cubs starting pitching ranks fourth in the National League with a 3.60 ERA. The bullpen ranks ninth with a 4.52 ERA. Cubs starters have logged 157.1 innings so far. Only the St. Louis Cardinals (165.2 innings) have more.

Quality and quantity: Ryan Dempster is eighth in the NL with 35.2 innings pitched and has the second most quality starts with four. Carlos Silva also has four, and Randy Wells has three.

Award-worthy: Wells has the third highest K/BB ratio in the National League at 5.40. Only Roy Halladay (9.75) and Tim Lincecum (6.14) are better.

No free passes: Silva has walked only six batters in 31 innings, which is 20th best in the NL.

WHIP it good: Dempster (0.98), Silva (1.00), and Gorzelanny (1.10) are all in the top 15 among starters for WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) in the National League.

Blowing up: Chicago has the third most blown saves in the NL with four. Marmol has one.

Throwing it away: Cubs pitchers lead the league with eight errors.

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With one month of baseball in the books, we check up on the four minor league affiliates of the San Diego Padres. We’ll take a look at who’s gotten off to a hot start and who’s struggling, as well as how the Padres’ most notable prospects are coming along in the early going.

AAA – Portland Beavers

Who’s Hot: The Beavers’ pitching staff has carried them thus far, thanks in large part to starters Will Inman and Radhames Liz. Inman, 23, has started four times and boasts a 2.57 ERA in 21 innings. The 26-year-old Liz, a reliever for much of his career, has found success as a starter, striking out 22 in 14 innings and posting a 2.57 ERA.

The bullpen has been anchored by Ernesto Frieri and Ryan Webb, each of whom has thrown 10 scoreless innings. Frieri, 24, a hard-throwing righty who’s been on the Padres’ radar for quite some time, has 13 strikeouts and five saves, while giving up just two hits.

The Beavers’ lineup hasn’t been as impressive, but outfielder Mike Baxter is hitting .360 in 50 at-bats. First baseman Craig Cooper has been the best regular thus far, hitting .338 with a team-high 14 RBI.

Who’s Not: After a good spring, shortstop Lance Zawadzki was hitting just .162 with Portland. This didn’t prevent him however, from being called up by the Padres earlier this week when Everth Cabrera went on the DL.

Catcher Dusty Ryan, acquired from the Tigers in the offseason, has gone 7 for his first 52 (.135). Starting pitcher Nathan Culp was hit hard in two starts, prompting a demotion to AA, where he has struggled in three more starts for a total ERA of over six.

NOTABLE: Outfield prospects Aaron Cunningham and Luis Durango have shown flashes of potential in the first month. They are hitting .278 and .276 respectively. Cunningham is second on the team with 12 RBI, while Durango leads the team in stolen bases with 10 (though he’s been caught five times). Infielder Matt Antonelli has been on the DL.

AA – San Antonio Missions

Who’s Hot: Once considered a top prospect, outfielder Cedric Hunter had a rough 2009, causing many to drop him from their prospects lists. Back in San Antonio for a second go-around, the 22-year-old hasn’t disappointed. Playing every day he’s batting .333 and leads the team with 14 RBI from the leadoff spot.

Meanwhile the consensus top prospect in the system, starting pitcher Simon Castro, has not missed a beat. In four starts, Castro, 22, is 2-0 with a 1.11 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 24 innings. Fellow pitching prospect Jeremy Hefner had been just as good in his first four starts, posting a 1.35 ERA before getting hit hard in his start tonight.

As with the rest of the organization, the bullpen has been a strong point for the Missions. Leading the way are Brandon Gomes (1.35 ERA, 14 K’s) and Craig Italiano (11 scoreless innings).

Who’s Not: Two of the team’s most highly regarded prospects have struggled in the first month. Third baseman James Darnell has a .192 batting average and has struck out 20 times. Starting pitcher Wynn Pelzer is 1-3 with a 7.88 ERA and has been the outlier in an otherwise strong pitching staff.

NOTABLE: After an explosive offensive season in 2008, Kellen Kulbacki struggled through an injury-riddled ’09 season. His April has been somewhere in between the two. He’s hitting .290, but has yet to hit his first home run.

The Padres decided to put lefty Aaron Poreda, the top prospect in the Jake Peavy trade, in AA after pitching in AAA all of last season. He is a power arm being used out of the bullpen, posting a 1.63 ERA so far.

High A – Lake Elsinore Storm

Who’s Hot: Finally healthy and able to play every day, shortstop Drew Cumberland is showing what made him a high draft pick in 2007. He’s hitting .357 and leading the team in steals with nine. Outfielder Dan Robertson continues to meet every challenge thrown at him since being a low-round draft pick out of Oregon State. He leads the team in batting average (.366) and on-base percentage (.424).

Starting pitcher Anthony Bass has started five games and has a 3.41 ERA, an impressive feat in the hitter-friendly Cal League. Jorge Reyes has also been impressive as a starter (2-1, 3.54 ERA), striking out 19 batters in 20 innings. Brad Brach has been dominant as the closer, notching eight saves with an ERA of 0.77.

Who’s Not: Allan Dykstra, the first round pick in 2008, continues to disappoint in the minor leagues. The Padres hoped that a move to the hitters paradise of the Cal League would get the power-hitting first baseman going, but that just hasn’t happened. He hit .200 in 75 at-bats in April without a home run. Outfielder Yefri Carvajal is also off to a slow start, hitting just .140 over the first month.

NOTABLE: Former first round pick Nick Schmidt continues to try and come back from arm surgery. It remains to be seen if the 24-year-old lefty starter is the same pitcher as before the surgery. He’s started five games and logged more than 25 innings, posting a 4.97 ERA with 23 strikeouts. Highly-touted outfielder Jaff Decker is on the DL.

A – Fort Wayne Tin Caps

Who’s Hot: First baseman Nate Freiman has started the season on a tear, hitting .366 and leading the team with 18 RBI. The 6-foot-7, 23-year-old out of Duke is playing in his first full season of pro ball.

At 21 years old, starting pitcher Michael Watt has been the team’s ace. In five starts, he is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 23 strikeouts. Miles Mikolas has thrown 16 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 1.62 ERA.

The ace of the pen though has been lefty Juan Oramas, who turns 20 this month. Oramas won the Mexican League Rookie of the Year this winter and threw 15 innings with a 1.20 ERA and 25 strikeouts in April for the Tin Caps. He was recently promoted to Lake Elsinore.

Who’s Not: Two of the team’s most promising young international prospects have floundered in the first month. Third baseman Edinson Rincon and outfielder Rymer Liriano excelled in the short-season leagues last year, but each have batting averages around .200 with more than 80 at-bats. A tough transition is to be expected for the two 19-year-old Dominicans, adjusting to the cold weather of the Midwest and the culture shock of their first full year playing stateside.

NOTABLE: The Padres started outfielder Everett Williams, last year’s second-round pick, in Fort Wayne, while first-rounder Donavan Tate remains in extended spring training. Williams, 19, hit .241 in his first 54 at-bats.

Shortstop Jonathan Galvez, a 19-year-old from the Dominican Republic who’s seen as having great potential, has fared slightly better than Rincon and Liriano. He’s hitting .259 with a .411 OBP. His 15 walks to 14 strikeouts is a rarity among players his age and shows his good plate discipline.

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Despite a sparkling record good for second place in the tough AL East, a number of Yankee hitters are off to poor starts.

Mark Teixeria, Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson and Alex Rodriguez are all struggling mightily.

So which of the four are likely to turn it around? Advanced statistics can help us with that one. All of this data is available at fangraphs.com or baseball-reference.com

Alex Rodriguez

The line: .250/.337/.440 2 HR’s.

Prognosis : Good, but remember, he’s getting up there in years.

Yes, the power drop is disconcerting, but according to fangraphs, there’s nothing to worry about. Right now, just 6.7 percent of the fly balls Rodriguez has hit have gone for home runs. That’s absurdly low. For his career, that number is 23.4 percent, and it has never gone below 19.3 percent

According to Fangraphs, A-Rod’s hit 30 fly balls this season, so you would expect him to have seven home runs or so by now. Additionally, Rodriguez is making contact on 86 percent his swings, but his Batting Average on Balls In Play is .268, which is 53 points below his career average. This should also go closer to normal levels soon.

While it’s possible his home run numbers will start to drop—he is older, after all—there’s no reason to believe they’ll stay this low. And some of those other balls are likely to fall in as well. But any time a guy starts getting older, you see a drop in production, so it’s something to monitor.

Nick Johnson

The line: .138/.383/.224.

Prognosis : Good, if he wants it to be

I’ll be honest: Guys like Johnson drive me nuts. It’s not that I don’t know the value of a walk, it’s just that sometimes I get the sense that all they’re going up there to do is try to draw a walk, and they forget about attempting to swing the bat.

And right now, that’s Johnson’s biggest problem: He just doesn’t want to swing the bat. He’s only swung at 28.6 percent of the pitches he sees, down from 36.8 percent for his career. Additionally, he’s only swung at 42.6 percent of pitches in the strike zone, down from nearly 60 percent.

The maddening thing is, when he bothers to swing, he’s making contact. Johnson’s contact rate of 89 percent is good, and he’s only got a swinging strike rate of 3.3 percent. The problem is, the balls he hits aren’t finding the ground.

A .194 BAPIP is stunningly low, but, as it’s 115 points below his career average, it’s going to go up, especially considering his line drive percentage of 24.3 is right in line with his career numbers. Line drives are a type of hit very likely to result in a base hit — Johnson, for example, has a .777 career average on line drives.

For Nick, it’s a simple as taking the bat off his shoulder.

Mark Teixeria

The line: .136/.300/.259, 2 HR

Prognosis : Good, at least for the average

Much like Johnson, Teixeria’s been a victim of bad luck. His BABIP of .148 is half of his career average, and it simply cannot stay that low. He’s only hitting .500 on his line drives, 250 points below his career average. And, he’s only 30, so unlike A-Rod, he’s not at a dangerous age for dropping off.

While he is hitting more balls on the ground (unlikely to result in a hit for a player like him), it’s the fly balls that are also hurting him, as only 8 percent of the fly balls he hits turn into home runs, about half of his average.

That’s problematic, because even four home runs is low for a guy like Teixeria. So while the power numbers may be able to improve only so much, don’t expect the average to stay below the Mendoza line

Curtis Granderson

The line: .221/.310/.377

Prognosis: Not good

Here’s the problem with Granderson: While his BAPIP is low for him—.259 as opposed to .319 for his career—he’s also hitting a much higher percentage of line drives, which, if anything, should make that average go up. And while his average on line drives is low for him (.500 in 2010 as opposed to .743 for his career), it’s also likely he’ll hit fewer of them.

The ground presents a similar problem: Granderson’s speed makes him a threat to get on base with ground balls—his career average on ground balls is .275—but his ground ball percentage this season is virtually identical to his career numbers, and his average on them is .318, which means it’s also likely to drop.

The problem is, the increase in line drives has come at the expense of fly balls, which, unless they go out of the park, don’t often result in hits. So if Granderson reverts to the norm and some of his line drives turn into fly balls, well, you can see where it’s going. For his career, Granderson hits .139 on fly balls that aren’t home runs, so it ain’t pretty.

While Granderson’s only seeing 8.7 percent of his fly balls turn into home runs, it’s not that much lower than his 12.1 percent career number.

Regardless of the reason, these four Yankees need to start hitting, because other players are unlikely to see their hot starts stay so hot.

Robinson Cano is not going to have 28.6 percent of his fly balls turn into home runs all season, nor will Jorge Posada see 29.4 percent of his fly balls leave the park — for comparison’s sake, Albert Pujols’ career rate for that is just over 20 percent.

And Derek Jeter’s not going to hit .335 if he hits 71.3 percent of balls on the ground with only 12.6 percent on a line—and Jeter, like A-Rod is getting up there in years.

And call me crazy, but I just don’t see Brett Gardner, who was a .289 hitter in the minors, maintaining his .323 average all season.

Hopefully, Teixeria, A-Rod and Johnson can turn it around before the Gardners, Canos and Jeters come back down to earth.

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The Yankees signed outfielder Marcus Thames this season to do one job—hit lefties.

So far, all he has done is destroy lefties.

Try these numbers on for size: 8 G, 16 AB, 3 R, 10 H, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K, .625 AVG, .684 OBP, 1.000 SLG, 1.684 OPS.

Now, so far Thames’ outfield defense has been pretty atrocious, but nights like last night (3-for-3 with a double and an RBI) make it hard to stay mad at him.

Both Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson are far superior to him defensively, and it is always painful to watch Thames flail at balls in the outfield that either one of the speedsters could have gotten to, but consider these numbers against lefties:

Granderson vs. lefties: 28 AB, 2 R, 5 H, 1 3B, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 10 K, .179 AVG, .207 OBP, .250 SLG, .457 OPS.

Gardner vs. lefties: 16 AB, 2 R, 5 H, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 3 K, .313 AVG, .313 OBP, .375 SLG, .688 OPS.

So even though Thames’ defense is tough to stomach, so are the numbers the regular outfielders, with the exception of Nick Swisher, have put up against southpaws.

One thought though: Usually manager Joe Girardi has been going with Thames in left field and sitting Gardner against lefties. What he might consider doing is starting both Randy Winn and Thames against the lefties—or possibly even consider pulling Rocco Baldelli out of the Tampa Bay Rays’ front office if Winn can’t do the job.

Related Stories

• Feb. 13, 2010 — Gardner eyes starting role in 2010 (4)
• April 22, 2010 — Notes and Quotes: More on Hughes, the Bullpen, and the Lineup (0)
• March 24, 2010 — Your Starting Center Fielder: Curtis Granderson (0)
• March 13, 2010 — Yanks Shake Off Rainy Doldrums to Beat the O-Birds (1)

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