Kuzul

The Washington Nationals are the biggest surprise of the 2012 MLB season.

And Stephen Strasburg‘s starting pitching is a big reason for that success.  So how does this team expect to advance in their first playoff appearance in franchise history without their ace?

If the playoffs started today, the Nats would face either the Atlanta Braves or the St. Louis Cardinals in the division series.  The Braves are a division rival and the Cards are the defending champs.

Strasburg was shut down effective immediately after going 15-6 this season with a 3.16 ERA and 197 strikeouts in 159.1 IP.  Those are Cy Young-worthy statistics for the young right-hander who rebounded from Tommy John surgery in August 2010. 

So can anyone explain why—at 86-53 and atop the NL East—the Nationals wouldn’t just rest Strasburg for the rest of September? 

They pretty much have a playoff berth wrapped up at this point, so I can understand giving him a few weeks off.  He could rest up and take some time to prepare himself physically and mentally for Game 1 of the NLDS.

Instead, the Nats’ brass has stuck to their original game plan by ending his season prematurely…and completely.  In their eyes, the risk of Strasburg re-injuring himself is greater than the reward of a possible World Series title.  This logic defies the idea that you “play to win the game.” 

The last time I checked Strasburg was 24, not 10.  Stop treating the guy like he’s made of glass.

The Nats have way more to gain by stashing him until October than shutting him down for the entirety of the season.  What if Washington made it to the NLCS? Even if they lost, wouldn’t the playoff experience gained by Strasburg be invaluable to his overall development?

The answer is most emphatically yes.  You can’t “baby” a player of his talent, especially in the prime of his career.

Let’s understand one thing here.  The Nationals are more than just Stephen Strasburg.  They have the second-best team ERA in the majors at 3.29.  Their lineup is solid if not spectacular.

However, the buzz and momentum Washington has built up over the season will deflate as October nears.  Instead of talking about what a great year they’re having, all people will talk about is this decision.

It’s a shame that such a promising squad is destined for a first-round exit in the division series, no matter whom they play. 

At least he’ll be healthy come April, right?

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Apparently, even the Washington Nationals were so sick of all the Stephen Strasburg shutdown talk that the team decided to finally put an end to it. 

OK, maybe that’s not exactly why the Nationals announced on Saturday (Sept. 8) that Strasburg’s 2012 season is suddenly finished, as reported by multiple outlets, including The Washington Post. Strasburg was expected to make one more start this year, Wednesday (Sept. 12) versus the New York Mets.

Is it a big deal that the Nationals are cutting Strasburg’s season short by one start? When it’s phrased like that, maybe not. But the reason given for prematurely sidelining him is at least a bit curious.

Manager Davey Johnson told reporters, including the Washington Times‘ Amanda Comak, that the  media attention over Strasburg’s impending shutdown had worn down the 24-year-old star. 

The media hype on this thing has been unbelievable. I feel it’s as hard for him as it would be anybody to get mentally, totally committed in the ballgame. And he’s reached his innings limit. So we can get past this and talk about other things for a change.

With all due respect, Mr. Johnson, I think we’re going to be talking about this for a while, at least through the next week. 

Strasburg certainly didn’t present a strong case for his season continuing after his latest start. Facing the Miami Marlins, he lasted only three innings before being pulled from the game. Strasburg allowed five runs and six hits (two of them home runs). He walked three batters and struck out only two, his lowest total of the season. 

It was the second time in his past three starts that Strasburg had allowed five runs.

That strengthened the perception that his reconstructed right elbow was wearing down under the grind of his first full season since recovering from Tommy John surgery. As I wrote in early August, this was becoming increasingly apparent to beat writers covering the Nationals. 

During the second half of the season, Strasburg’s ERA went from 2.82 to 3.73. His strikeout-to-walk ratio decreased from 4.57 to 3.45. He allowed seven home runs in 60.1 innings after giving up eight in 99 innings before the All-Star break. Everything with Strasburg was trending in the wrong direction. 

So shutting Strasburg down now, even with only one start remaining in his season, makes sense from a physical standpoint and from a baseball standpoint. Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said as much in his remarks to the press, including the Washington Times‘ Tom Schad.

After yesterday’s start, we just figured that mentally and physically, Stephen looked like he was fatigued. We said let’s pull the plug today and move on with the season and try and finish the season off positive.

Rizzo went on to explain that it was a relatively easy decision among Johnson, Rizzo and pitching coach Steve McCatty.

With 159.1 innings pitched after Friday’s start, Strasburg’s workload fell within the 160-inning limit that had been originally projected for him by many analysts and observers. Would one more start and another six innings really matter, especially when Strasburg appeared to be struggling?

All right, fair enough. But that’s not what Johnson said when explaining Strasburg’s shutdown.

The Nats manager made it sound as if his young pitcher couldn’t handle all the attention and scrutiny that the media was giving him. In doing so, he made Strasburg sound mentally weak. When asked to clarify, Johnson didn’t walk back from this either, telling reporters, including Tom Schad of the Washington Times:.

I know he’s been struggling with it for weeks. I know he doesn’t sleep good thinking about it. Shoot, I’ve heard so much advice from every ex-pitcher, every guru on the matter.

If you’re not there 100 percent mentally—I mean, he’s a gifted athlete. His velocity could still be there. I don’t see the crispness. I don’t see the ball jumping out of his hand. It’s more, I’m a firm believer this game is 90-95 percent mental. He’s only human. I don’t know how anybody can be totally concentrating on the job at hand and media hype to this thing. I think we would be risking more sending him back out.

I’m not going to pretend I know what it’s like to push through the rigors of a full major league season with a surgically repaired elbow. Heck, I’ve never once thrown anything as hard in my life as Strasburg throws a baseball more than 100 times a game.

I also don’t know what it’s like to have to face repeated questions from local and national baseball reporters about how my arm feels and how I feel about my team wanting to shut me down for the season. I’m sure it absolutely is a grind. 

But rightly or wrongly, Johnson’s remarks call into question whether Strasburg can handle the burden that comes with being a team leader and staff ace.

Isn’t this level of attention and scrutiny what comes with life as a major league starting pitcher? Do the Nats think Strasburg won’t face this kind of questioning next season, especially as he approaches 160-180 innings again?

Or will the presumption just be that he’s ready to pitch 200 innings because he got through this season and should be stronger?

If that’s the case, the Nats were probably right to shut down Strasburg before the playoffs. Apparently, he would have become a blubbering mental mess—going “Bu-bu-bu-bu-bu…!“—when facing the harsh national spotlight that comes with postseason baseball.

Johnson did Strasburg no favors by portraying him as wilting under the mental grind of media hype. (And if he’s trying to blame the media for this, that is dubious at best, garbage at worst.)

If I was Strasburg, I’d be upset that my manager threw that perception out there. Of course, Strasburg can dispel this notion by talking to the press about this later on.

That is, if Johnson thinks he can handle it. 

Please allow me to clarify: I don’t think the Nationals made the wrong decision here. As crazy as it sounded all along to shut Strasburg down when the Nats have a chance to contend for a World Series championship, I think the physical evidence was increasingly supporting the team’s position.

(However, considering how closely I’ve followed the Nationals this season and how often I’ve written about Strasburg, maybe I’m suffering from a form of Stockholm syndrome.)

Strasburg is the Nationals’ top pitcher. He is a No. 1 starter and a deserving candidate for the NL Cy Young Award. But the team needs to begin treating him more like an ace or give him the opportunity to be one. Perhaps that will happen next year.

For now, however, the Nats’ decision to end his season prematurely and blame it on the mental grind of constant interrogation over his status, rather than the physical toll of throwing more innings than he ever has, makes Strasburg look as if he’s not ready for the responsibility.

If that is actually the truth, the Nationals have a major concern going into next season. 

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The curtains have finally closed on Stephen Strasburg‘s season. As reported by Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post, the Nationals are shutting their 24-year-old right-hander down for the rest of the year, just as they promised/threatened they eventually would.

I would say the world can now go back to spinning, but one gets the sense that the world has actually stopped spinning now that Strasburg has finally been sidelined. Surely the Nationals are doomed to fall short of the World Series without their ace.

Right?

No. Not right at all. This Nationals team deserves a lot more credit than that. Strasburg may not throw another pitch until spring training, but between now and then, the Nats could still end up winning the World Series. They still have the goods to win it all.

Pushing Strasburg to the side certainly looks like a dumb decision on a surface level, as shelving a pitcher with a 15-6 record, a 3.16 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and an 11.1 K/9 just isn’t something that any would-be World Series champion team should do if it has its head on straight.

Strasburg’s numbers for the season as a whole definitely suggest that the Nationals are going to tough it out from here until their bitter end without a true ace pitcher. But a closer look at the numbers and a proper perspective of the circumstances at play suggest something entirely different.

You see, Strasburg wasn’t pitching so well recently. His final three starts saw him log only 14 innings while compiling a 6.43 ERA and a .288 opponents’ batting average. Stretching back even further, we’re talking about a pitcher who hadn’t pitched more than six innings since July 25. True “ace” pitchers do that with regularity.

Is fatigue to blame for Strasburg’s struggles down the stretch? Only he knows that. Nationals manager Davey Johnson, however, floated a theory on Saturday that makes total sense.

Via the Post:

The media hype on this thing has been unbelievable. I feel it’s as hard for him as it would be anybody to get mentally, totally committed in the ballgame. And he’s reached his innings limit. So we can get past this and talk about other things for a change.

Nobody is going to get Strasburg himself to admit that the general obsession with his innings count had him losing not only his focus on the mound but also sleep at night, but Johnson admitted that for him.

“I know he’s been struggling with it for weeks,” Johnson said. “I know he doesn’t sleep good thinking about it.”

Take a moment to consider how things would have panned out had the Nationals not decided to shut Strasburg down on Saturday—or at any point in the near future, for that matter. The obsession over his innings limit would have gotten more and more intense, thus making it harder and harder for him to concentrate. Bad vibes could have gotten considerably worse.

And if he were actually allowed to pitch in October, the media hype would have been through the roof. The folks at ESPN probably would have taken to talking about Strasburg more than Tim Tebow and LeBron James combined.

Nats general manager Mike Rizzo indicated on Saturday that pulling the plug on Strasburg’s season was partially motivated by a desire to “finish the season off positive.” The Nationals should be able to do that now. With Strasburg finally out of the picture, the pressure is off of them almost as much as it is off of him. The Nationals only have to worry about playing baseball the rest of the way.

And make no mistake about it: Even without Strasburg, the Nationals are a very, very good baseball team.

They certainly still have good starting pitching. Strasburg is the club’s ace by reputation, but the numbers all say that Gio Gonzalez is the true ace of the Nationals. He’s 18-7 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, and FanGraphs has him tied with Clayton Kershaw for first among National League pitchers with a WAR of 4.9. 

Gonzalez is a legitimate candidate for the NL Cy Young Award. The Nats shouldn’t be at all worried about the possibility of him matching up against the likes of Kershaw, Matt Cain, Johnny Cueto or any of the NL’s other No. 1 starting pitchers in the postseason. Gonzalez will be able to hold his own against anybody.

Jordan Zimmermann, meanwhile, is nearly as good as Gonzalez. He doesn’t have a sparkly record, but he does have a 2.99 ERA and a rock-solid 3.85 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He had some rough outings in August, but his recent seven-inning performance against the Chicago Cubs could get him going again just in time for the postseason.

Beyond Gonzalez and Zimmermann, the Nats could ask for a much worse potential Game 3 starter than Edwin Jackson. He can be unpredictable, but he’s finishing the season on a strong note. In his last four starts, Jackson has a 3.04 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 26.2 innings pitched. And unlike Gonzalez and Zimmermann, Jackson has some postseason experience to fall back on.

Contrary to popular belief, starting pitching isn’t the Nationals’ only strength. The Nats can swing the bats, too.

It took a while for Washington’s offense to come together due to injuries, but it’s come together in a big way since the All-Star break. The Nationals lead the NL in runs scored since the break with 280, and they also lead the league with a collective batting average of .281.

It isn’t just one guy doing all the work, either. Jayson Werth has a .901 OPS since he was activated off the disabled list in early August. Bryce Harper has gotten a second wind, as he’s compiled an OPS over 1.000 in his last 20 games. Ryan Zimmerman has an .864 OPS since the start of August. Adam LaRoche has a 1.792 OPS in September. Ian Desmond has a 1.093 OPS over his last 15 games.

As they say, hitting is contagious. The Nationals can vouch.

There are some complaints to be made about the Nationals bullpen. It was terrific in the month of August, posting a 2.34 ERA, but it’s gone through some struggles since the calendar turned to September and has generally had an up-and-down kind of season. 

We know this much, though: In the eighth and ninth innings, Davey Johnson could do a lot worse than the likes of Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard. They both feature tremendous stuff, and they can be dominant when they know where it’s going.

Everyone is worried about the Nationals now that Strasburg has been ripped from the equation, but you can rest assured that the Nationals aren’t all that worried. There’s no set formula for winning baseball games in the month of October, but having good starting pitching, a deep offense and a talented bullpen are good places to start.

So don’t fear for the Nationals. They don’t need Strasburg to win it all this year. They have enough depth to handle their business without him.

And if you think about it, that’s pretty scary.

Special thanks to Baseball-Reference.com for the stats.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Last night, Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg was pulled after three innings in a 9-7 loss to the Miami Marlins. It was his second subpar start in as many games. And today, according to NBC 4 in Washington, the team has decided the circus is over.

There would be no more monitoring his pitches or worrying about his arm. The Washington Nationals, the team with the best record in baseball, will not pitch Stephen Strasburg for the rest of the season and postseason.

Nbcwashington.com quotes Nationals manager Davey Johnson saying Strasburg “wasn’t focused as much on the game as he was on the impending shut down.”

This goes back to something I wrote in a Bleacher Report article last month. The Strasburg innings limit should never have been made public. And the handling of Strasburg could have been adjusted when the Nationals made their surprising run at the National League East.

He could have been shut down in the middle of the season, or used once a week, or had his innings reduced at the beginning of the year.

Instead, the Nationals will go into the postseason weaker than otherwise possible. Washington will see its first postseason since 1933 a man short.

Then again, maybe by shutting him down now after a few bad starts, the Nationals could spin the situation by not pitching well.

Maybe that was part of the plan. Wait for his next bad start and then shut him down and be able to say to fans “Hey! He was wearing down.”

Either way, the Nationals still have a solid pitching staff as they go into the playoffs. But they are no longer the prohibitive favorite.

Circumstances that align for a legitimate run at a pennant do not come every year. They landed on the Nationals lap this year and they can still win it all in 2012. However, they made it just a little bit harder for themselves by taking Strasburg out of the equation.

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The questions about when the Washington Nationals would shut down their star pitcher Stephen Strasburg were answered by manager Davey Johnson on Saturday morning.

Nationals beat writer for MASNsports.com Byron Kerr is reporting on Twitter about the organization’s plans for Strasburg:

“Davey just announced Strasburg shutdown effective immediately”

— Byron Kerr (@masnKerr) September 8, 2012

CSNwashington.com beat writer Mark Zuckerman talks about whose call it was and what Johnson said about Strasburg’s season:

“Davey: ‘I made this call.’ Discussed with Rizzo last night, informed Strasburg today.”

— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) September 8, 2012

“Davey: ‘He’s had a great year and I know what he’s going through the last couple weeks. The hype on this thing had been unbearable.'”

— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) September 8, 2012

Washington Post Nationals insider Adam Kilgore is reporting the reason behind the decision, according to Johnson:

“Davey said he sensed ‘from the first pitch’ yesterday that Strasburg was overwhelmed. ‘Now he can get past this.'”

— Adam Kilgore (@AdamKilgoreWP) September 8, 2012

“Davey: ‘I don’t see the ball jumping out of his hand. I don’t see any crispness. This game is 99 percent mental.'”

— Adam Kilgore (@AdamKilgoreWP) September 8, 2012

After recovering from Tommy John surgery that put him on an innings count and would ultimately decide when his season was over to ensure no further damage to the elbow, Strasburg returned to elite form for most of 2012.

The Nationals ace has managed an impressive 15-6 record this season with an even more impressive ERA of 3.16, but Strasburg was forced out of the team’s last game after letting up five runs in three innings.

While some took this as a sign that the organization would further the innings count for the young star, it solidified the club’s decision to stop the season where it was and allow Strasburg ample time to rest his arm and get ready for 2013.

The Nationals are in the midst of a push for the postseason, but the organization is doing the right thing for their young star by shutting him down for the remainder of the season.

Washington will be better off having the star healthy over the next 10 years instead of pushing its luck and ruining the young man’s career.

Check back for more on Major League Baseball as it comes, and don’t miss Bleacher Report’s MLB page to get your fill of all things baseball.

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BREAKING NEWS: Stephen Strasburg has an innings limit.

Okay, so it’s not really breaking news at this point. Strasburg’s innings limit and inevitable shutdown have been the baseball equivalent in media coverage to Tim Tebow and the New York Jets.

During all the hubbub, the Washington Nationals have enjoyed a record-breaking season. They’ve won a franchise-record 82 games entering play on Tuesday, and that’s a number that will almost assuredly increase over the final 28 games of the regular season.

They’re pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot at this point—barring a Boston or Atlanta-like collapse—so the now finalized shutdown of Strasburg has generated a lot of controversy amongst fans of the team and fans of the sport in general.

While many argue that Strasburg should remain active for the postseason because of his impact on the rotation, there are an equal number of those who oppose such an opinion.

Even though Strasburg is likely the most dominant pitcher on the team, those opposers recognize the fact that both Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler are silently having very nice seasons.

Jackson, although he sports a pedestrian 8-9 record, has an impressive 3.53 ERA and has given the Nationals a strong 158 innings.

Detwiler has been equally as impressive. His 9-6 record is slightly more impressive than Jackson’s, as is his 3.15 ERA. He has provided a quality 140 innings, as evidenced by his 1.157 WHIP.

While each pitcher is far from the dominant Strasburg, they will both be able to provide quality innings in the postseason. With the Nationals offense now becoming somewhat of a strength, Jackson and Detwiler will be more than capable of handling the load in October.

Detwiler has been a nice surprise this season, but Jackson was brought in for this sort of thing. He was a nice piece on the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals World Series team, and the Nationals will be looking for him to provide some postseason leadership.

Even with Strasburg shutdown for this upcoming postseason, the Nationals need not worry. There’s no denying the fact that they are a better team with him in the rotation, but it’s unfair to overlook the exploits of Detwiler and Jackson, two very dependable pitchers in their own right. 

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Stephen Strasburg, whose arm is being treated by the Washington Nationals as if it is a Fabrege Egg, did not have his best stuff tonight.

He let up a pair of runs in the first and three in the third. With his innings at a premium, why would the Nationals send him out for the fourth inning against the Miami Marlins?

For some unknown reason, manager Davey Johnson had him pitch the fourth where he let up a run. Then he batted in the fifth and came out to pitch in the bottom of the inning where he let up a double to Giancarlo Stanton and another run.

He finished his game with five innings pitched, nine hits, five earned runs and three strikeouts. If they are limiting his innings, there was no reason to have him pitch more than three. There are two innings they could have banked.

The coddling of Stephen Strasburg has bordered on insanity this season. On Bleacher Report, I suggested that they find ways in the bullpen to stretch his appearances into the playoffs without exceeding their innings limits.

Instead, they seem hell bent to have him use up his innings before the postseason, and the perfect combination that would make the Nationals the favorites in October would be compromised. The strange logic the Nationals seem to have is “All of the elements are coming together for 2012, but let’s concentrate on 2013 and 2014.”

Seasons where the competition falls and a team comes together can be so fleeting in baseball. Ask the Angels and the Marlins and the White Sox, whose recent World Series titles were clinched when a series of positive events all clicked at once.

Now imagine one of those teams deciding to not use one of their best pitchers in the postseason. How many of those events would have unclicked?

If the Nationals are hell bent on limiting Strasburg’s innings, then that is their decision. But is it wise to burn those innings when they do not have to?

Shouldn’t they try to save a few for September, or better yet October?

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One of the hottest debates in baseball this summer has been: Should the Washington Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg in order to save his arm for the long term?  Though the decision to sit Strasburg seems to be already decided, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo will not be able to satisfy everyone no matter what he decides.

People will hate on Rizzo either way. In the present time, he will not be able to win. We will all have to wait and see how the future turns out.

Rizzo recently told Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post that “Strasburg will be shut down at some point in September.”

If the Nationals were in last place, this would be a non-issue. One can assume that Strasburg would be shut down until next season. There would be no point in continuing the current season.

The problem for Washington this year is that they are one of the top teams in the National League and could be a serious contender come playoff time. Things change from year to year in Major League Baseball, there is no guarantee that they will ever be in this position again.

Like every great debate, both sides think they are correct. Rizzo has plenty of people who feel he is not making the right decision on Strasburg.

Former pitcher, and former Nats analyst, Rob Dibble clearly thinks the choice to sit Strasburg is the wrong one. This Washington Post article from Dan Steinberg outlines some of his feelings. He questions Rizzo’s ability to make the decision and blasts Stasburg for not speaking up for himself.

Tommy John (the pitcher for whom the surgery is named) criticized the plan to shut down Strasburg in the USA Today. John said, in the article by Scott Boeck, that if he were a Nats fan “he wouldn’t buy tickets” in 2013 if Strasburg is benched.

Despite all of the negativity and backlash, Rizzo has stood his ground.  

Rizzo is really stuck between the proverbial “rock and a hard place.”

If he shuts down Strasburg as expected, and the Nats start to lose or exit the playoffs early, it will be his fault. Shutting down Strasburg will be blamed for the collapse of the Nats.

If Rizzo lets Strasburg go, and he blows out his arm in the 200th inning, then he could be blamed for ruining the franchise pitcher.

Who really knows what the right call is? It’s nothing but pure speculation. No one has the crystal ball that can predict Washington’s success without Strasburg. To that point, no one really knows what the long-term effects of pushing him will be.

The only thing I know for sure is that it’s a fun debate, and I sure am glad I’m not Mike Rizzo. Years from now, he will either be a hero or a goat for his decision. Time will only tell.

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Stephen Strasburg is 24 years old.  He can vote for our political leaders, he can order a Jack and Coke, and he is less than a year away from being able to rent an automobile all on his own.

On another note, the Washington Nationals are sticking to their plan of shutting down their ace sometime after he reaches the 160-inning mark on the season, which would include this year’s playoffs.

All of this is happening in spite of the fact that the youthful Nats have the best record in baseball and a very legitimate shot at the World Series this year.

The only place you really see inning restrictions like this during times of high competition comes for kids half Strasburg’s age at this month’s Little League World Series.

However, eighth-grade algebra is not in Strasburg’s immediate future.  He is a man.  And that man should without a doubt be pitching for Washington in October.

The idea behind limiting Strasburg is not a bad one by any means.  He’s not too far removed from Tommy John surgery and the keystone—along with Bryce Harper—to Washington’s growing franchise.  The Nationals are a very young, talented team and surely don’t want to jeopardize a promising future by possibly risking injury to one of the best young arms in baseball.

So they put a predetermined cap on what Strasburg’s workload would be this year.  They probably decided, “You know, this guy is going to have a dynamite career, but first we need to be very careful about how we handle him in his first full Major League season not just since surgery, but ever.  Besides, we’re probably a year or two off from being seriously competitive anyway.”

It’s difficult to believe the Nationals thought they would be contending at this level so soon.  After all, the Nats have been hanging out in and around the cellar of the NL East for several years now.  

But things have changed.  Washington has made it abundantly clear they are ready to make a serious run at the pennant and maybe more and, quite frankly, they need their best pitcher to do so.

On top of that, Strasburg’s recovery has come without any hiccups or reasons for concern.

The importance placed on his future is certainly warranted, but if he seems to be totally fine and you have a real shot at winning a World Series, why not take it?

Sitting him out and waiting for next year or the year after that just seems like the kind of logic that goes into playing a franchise mode in a video game.  There, it’s okay to say, “Well, I’ll just simulate out the season, and I’ll win it all in the next.”

That sort of thinking does not fair so well in real life.  Championship opportunities are fleeting, and the windows to achieve such glory often shut abruptly and before franchises believe they will.  For the Nationals to think they will be in this position again and consistently for the foreseeable future is not a far-fetched idea given their young talent, but there is still no guarantee on any of that.

What is certain, however, is that they have the best record in The Show right now.  Shutting down a player strictly out of an outdated plan (one that Strasburg has outgrown because of his success and impressive overall bill of health since surgery) to contend later when you can contend now does not do you many favors.  

After all, you play to win the game, not the game tomorrow.

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I know the topic has been beaten to death. But I have some sort of interest in the Nationals (even if I don’t fully understand why), so I might as well weigh in on the Stephen Strasburg inning-limit story. 

I can understand the desire to keep Strasburg healthy. I trust the Nationals have looked into the topic. But I think there are plenty of problems with the “keep pitching him until he hits 180 innings, then shut him down for the year” plan.

First, there’s the apparent plan to just pitch him like normal until he hits 180 innings. A win in April does count the same as a win in September. However, that isn’t true for October. Three losses ends your season totally. Playoff starts are disproportionately weighted, so why not save Strasburg for those? Why not skip starts here and there to save him for the games that spell an automatic game-over for the season?

Second is the 180 limit itself. Why 180 innings specifically? I mean, to an extent, it makes sense. More innings are bad. But why set a hard limit that apparently means a total end for Strasburg’s season? Why not be flexible? 

I liked the prior “We’ll shut him down when we think it’s time” approach. That seemed to account for so many things, including how the team is doing and how Strasburg is feeling. I would imagine the latter is much more important to determining if a player re-injures their elbow. Look at players like Joel Zumaya, who have managed to injure their arms repeatedly despite rarely pitching anything close to excessive innings. 

Yes, players like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood injured themselves after heavy workloads. However, the early 2000s were a different time, before pitch counts were as big as they are now. Prior threw 120 or more pitches in a start nine times during 2003, while Wood crossed that margin 13 times in 2003 alone (as well as eight times during his rookie season).

Strasburg has yet to reach that mark once in his career. Maybe innings are the determining factor, but number of pitches seems to be just as likely a culprit, and the Nationals have been much smarter about managing Stephen in that regard.

But then there’s the more team-focused argument. Yes, the Nationals have a deep rotation, and Strasburg might not be the ace just yet (although I would probably put him as their No. 2 right now, even ahead of Jordan Zimmermann).

But I don’t think that there’s any argument that, come October, a Gio Gonzalez-Strasburg-Zimmermann-Jackson/Detwiler rotation is stronger than a Gonzalez-Zimmermann-Jackson-Detwiler one. Playoff series are short, and you need to take every advantage you can.

I know there’s the argument that the Nationals’ window to win should stay open for several more years. But windows to win don’t always stay open as long as they should. The Phillies and Brewers were both supposed to be good at least for this year, maybe next. The mid-2000s Mets and Indians were supposed to remain competitive for years. 

And will that window ever be as good as it is now? The rotation hasn’t faced any major injury set-backs (yet, not to jinx it). The line-up (with the exception of catchers) looks to be healthy for the stretch run, if not the playoffs themselves. Adam LaRoche and Ian Desmond are having career years. You should take advantage of every playoff appearance you can.

Even if you do continue winning, you never know if you’ll wind up like the Indians or Braves or Mariners teams of the 1990s; good, but with not enough to show for it, World Series-wise.

Not only that, it’ll be hard to catch them. The Braves have been good, but have had much worse injury luck. The big-market Phillies look to be temporarily out of the picture. And on top of that, the Nationals have built up a 70-43 record, good for a .619 winning percentage, to go with a 4.5 game lead on the division. That makes them strong favorites for the division, a huge factor with Bud Selig’s new playoff scheme in place.

Yes, they may be better next year, or the year after. But they’re on pace for 100 wins and have the best record in baseball. This will be hard to top. If I’m betting on next season’s win total, barring a late collapse, I’d probably take the under on the Nationals.

Not that I expect them to be bad next year. It’s just very difficult to predict a team to repeat or improve on “best record in baseball”, especially a year or two down the road. 

I mean, I can’t fault a team too much for being careful. But this seems to be a very good year to try for it all. You need any advantage you can get in a short series, and Stephen Strasburg is definitely an advantage.

Would there be any harm in skipping one or two of his starts the rest of the way to prepare for October? I mean, why not aim for a 170-inning goal and save him for the postseason? 

The playoffs are already pretty random; there’s no guarantee he’d be going too far over the 180 mark even if he does pitch. He might get anywhere from one to maybe five starts (I would guess one in the DS, two in the CS and two in the World Series at most). If you go over those two extra starts you save by skipping late-season, he hits maybe 190 innings or so.

Is the difference between 180 innings and 190 innings really that big injury-wise that it’s worth totally shutting down one of the best pitchers in the league during a chance at a title?

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