Tag: Stephen Strasburg

Washington Nationals Should Shut Stephen Strasburg Down for a Month

The Washington Nationals want Stephen Strasburg to be there for them in the postseason, but potential innings limits are hurting those chances.

Strasburg is 13-5 with a 2.90 ERA and 166 strikeouts in 133.1 innings this season. If the reports that his limit is between 160-180, that leaves him with less than 50 innings of work for the rest of the season.   

That leaves him with about eight starts if he averages six innings each time out. Realistically, the Nationals will not let him start eight more regular-season games. If they can reach Game 7 of the World Series, they hope that will be Strasburg‘s last start of the season.

In order to do that, they will need to shut him down at some point to keep his arm ready for the postseason and the future.

How should the Nationals approach this dilemma?

Everyone seems to have an opinion, and GM Mike Rizzo denies every credible report about Strasburg‘s limit.

The Nationals are 70-43, 4.5 games ahead of the Braves with the best record in baseball. The second-place Braves have the third-best record in the NL, after the Reds. So the odds of reaching the postseason are very high considering the state of the league. 

That’s why the Nationals should shut down Strasburg now. Shut him down for a month. Have him throw a few side sessions and stay loose, but otherwise, rest the crown jewel. 

Then, come early September when teams start clinching playoff spots, give him another start and then rest him again till the postseason. He will not only be well rested, but he won’t be at a risk of exceeding his innings limit. 

It is a safe move that could prevent embarrassing long-term injuries. 

Let’s take a look at how the Cubs handled Mark Prior in 2003, when they were in a very similar position to the Washington Nationals today. Good, young pitching, combined with a scrappy but effective team with low expectations. 

Prior pitched 211.1 innings in the regular season of 2003, plus an additional 23 innings in the postseason. The next year he did not exceed 120 innings and was hit by injuries, some freakish, for the rest of his career.

Shutting Strasburg down for a month may be considered crazy, but it’s crazy to think that they can keep Strasburg under 180 innings and still reach the World Series with him, assuming they still plan to shut him down.  

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Fantasy Baseball: Breakdown of AccuScore’s Rest-of-Year Estimates for Strikeouts

With the fantasy-trade deadlines coming up this week or next (I have four red-letter dates this Friday), it’s time for owners to make one last pitch for baseball’s elite categorical contributors.

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal projections.

These 50 starting pitchers, based on AccuScore projections (not mine), will register at least 55 strikeouts from this point forward (Aug. 7-Sept. 30):

 

Part I

1. CC Sabathia, Yankees—77
2. Justin Verlander, Tigers—75
3. Yu Darvish, Rangers—75
4. Cole Hamels, Phillies—72
5. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals—68
6. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals—68
7. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers—68
8. Lance Lynn, Cardinals—67
9. Roy Halladay, Phillies—67
10. James Shields, Rays—67
11. Felix Hernandez, Mariners—67
12. Cliff Lee, Phillies—67
13. Marco Estrada, Brewers—67
14. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers—67
15. Francisco Liriano, White Sox—66
16. Madison Bumgarner, Giants—65
17. Zack Greinke, Angels—65
18. Tim Lincecum, Giants—65
19. Matt Cain, Giants—65
20. Mat Latos, Reds—64
21. Jered Weaver, Angels—64
22. Jeff Samardzija, Cubs—63
23. David Price, Rays—63
24. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals—63
25. Erik Bedard, Pirates—63

 

Part II

26. Felix Doubront, Red Sox—63
27. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks—61
28. Max Scherzer, Tigers—61
29. Anibal Sanchez, Tigers—61
30. R.A. Dickey, Mets—60
31. Ryan Dempster, Rangers—60
32. Jake Peavy, White Sox—60
33. Josh Johnson, Marlins—60
34. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians—60
35. Jon Lester, Red Sox—59
36. C.J. Wilson, Angels—59
37. Chris Capuano, Dodgers—58
38. Bud Norris, Astros—58
39. Matt Harvey, Mets—58
40. Michael Fiers, Brewers—58
41. Josh Beckett, Red Sox—58
42. J.A. Happ, Blue Jays—57
43. Chris Sale, White Sox—57
44. James McDonald, Pirates—57
45. Drew Pomeranz, Rockies—57
46. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants—56
47. Jon Niese, Mets—56
48. Matt Moore, Rays—56
49. Edwin Jackson, Nationals—55
50. Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees—55

 

Breakdown

  • I’ll buy the “under” for CC Sabathia and 77 strikeouts. Since May 26, Sabathia (11-3, 3.53 ERA, 1.20 ERA, 133/34 K-BB) has averaged 6.8 strikeouts over 10 starts. So, if he should squeeze in another 10 outings before Sept. 30, he’ll have to improve upon his current pace of the last 13 weeks. On the positive side, Sabathia has four double-digit strikeout efforts for the season.
  • Clayton Kershaw has 69 strikeouts since June 15, with six or more K’s in nine of the last 10 outings. And compared to Justin Verlander (who bedazzled the Yankees for 14 strikeouts on Monday night), Kershaw will likely enjoy one more start than the Tigers ace from this point forward. Bottom line: I’ll buy the “over” on Kershaw and 68 strikeouts.
  • Stephen Strasburg (11.31), Max Scherzer (11.28), Yu Darvish (10.34) and Gio Gonzalez (10.02) are the only regular MLB starters to post K/9 ratios above 10 this season, and from a 30-day perspective, Scherzer, Strasburg, Darvish, Francisco Liriano, James Shields, Madison Bumgarner and David Price boast that honor. So naturally, they’re all good candidates for 60-plus strikeouts.
  • Roy Halladay has posted respectable results in his last four games with Philly—1-1, a 4.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 21/3 K-BB ratio. But the punch-outs aren’t necessarily coming at an accelerated rate, likely a consequence of his recent shoulder woes and subsequent absence from the Phillies rotation for June and half of July.
  • Noticeably absent from this list: A.J. Burnett, Dan Haren, Wandy Rodriguez, Vance Worley, Andrew Cashner, Johnny Cueto, Wei-Yin Chen, Jordan Zimmermann, Aaron Harang, Miguel Gonzalez, Zach McAllister, Chad Billingsley, Corey Kluber and Ricky Romero.
  • For what it’s worth, AccuScore projects Reds closer Aroldis Chapman for 48 more strikeouts in just 27.4 innings. For July, Chapman had a 0.00 ERA and 0.56 WHIP. He was also a perfect 13-for-13 in save opportunities. Chapman’s K/9 ratio for July was a mind-blowing 19.5, easily his best effort of the season.

 

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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Did John Smoltz Expose Lies by Saying Stephen Strasburg Should Fake Injuries?

We’ve spent a decent amount of space here discussing how the Washington Nationals and Stephen Strasburg are going to negotiate the innings limit that general manager Mike Rizzo insists will go into effect, presumably in September.

Two weeks ago, I tossed out five ideas that could help Strasburg extend his season and manipulate his schedule to make sure that he could still be pitching during the Nats’ playoff run while still keeping himself under the 200-inning limit that Rizzo wants to shield his young star from. 

Those included tactics like moving to a six-man starting rotation or limiting Strasburg to 75 pitches per outing. Maybe the Nationals could pitch him solely against NL East rivals or schedule him for Fridays, as if he were playing in college again. 

But former Atlanta Braves pitcher John Smoltz, now an announcer for TBS and MLB Network, had a different proposal for limiting Strasburg’s innings that would also make him available when the Nationals are trying to clinch a division title or playoff spot and competing in the postseason. Just make an injury up, son. 

Say what now? No, seriously—this is what Smoltz said on ESPN Radio (via DC Sports Bog). 

“Honestly, I know this is gonna sound . . . well, I’m a little bit different anyways,” Smoltz told Scott Van Pelt. “I’d create my own little gap. I’d have a blister one day, maybe a hangnail the next start.

“You know, I think there’s ways to do it. And I get it—their statement is every game counts. Well, it does, but it doesn’t count as much as in September.”

Smoltz is definitely different, in that he’s being blatantly honest about how Strasburg and the Nationals are probably going to manipulate his schedule so that he can pitch in September.

He’s just the first guy who just came right out and said it. And by doing so, perhaps he also exposed what’s probably a relatively common routine in baseball. 

Manager: Hey, pitcher—how do you feel today?

Pitcher: I feel great. I feel strong. 

Manager: Are you sure?

Pitcher: Yeah, absolutely. My last bullpen went great. Was throwing free and easy.

General manager: Free and easy? Really? You didn’t feel a pinch in your shoulder?

Pitcher: What? No, I told you—I feel great.

General manager: No, you don’t look so good.

Manager: Yeah, you look tired. Look at how long it’s taking you to get dressed. Are you OK?

Pitcher: What are you talking about? I just haven’t put my shoes on yet because I’m sitting here—

General manager: No, you have a tired arm. Listen to me. Tired arm.

Pitcher: But I’m not—

Manager: Tired arm. You’re going on the DL. 

Pitcher: OK, but…can I still play golf? 

The only difference with Smoltz’s scenario is that he suggests Strasburg come up with a nagging problem that causes him to miss a start here and there. The painful blister. The dreaded hangnail. Maybe he can say he slept on his eye wrong, as Chris Brown supposedly once told Sparky Anderson.

It’s not like Smoltz is some Jim Bouton-esque whistle blower here, revealing deep, dark secrets from the clubhouse. But he did say what most everyone following this situation has been thinking.

Smoltz didn’t suggest that he or any of his teammates ever did such a thing. However, he sure seemed confident that it was something he would do if his team threatened to impose an innings limit on him.

Additionally, skipping a start here and there would be much easier to justify to the players than shutting him down in September when the team is fighting for a playoff spot. 

Smoltz went on to suggest something that I mentioned when discussing the possible argument to come over shutting Strasburg down. Rizzo began the season with the plan and apparently has every intention of sticking with it. But deep down, he probably didn’t think the Nats would jump ahead of schedule and contend for the NL East this year. 

So if Strasburg suddenly comes down with a chipped fingernail, stiff back or the aforementioned blister, we can all wink at each other with the knowledge of what’s really going on. Yep—tired arm. We’ll see you in September, sir.

Strasburg just has to make sure to fake a relatively harmless injury. Don’t say forearm tightness or bicep soreness. That will be too real and scare the hell out of everyone. 

 

Follow @iancass on Twitter

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MLB Trade Rumors: Could Washington Replace Stephen Strasburg with Ryan Dempster?

Stephen Strasburg’s innings limit has been one of the hotter topics in baseball, and it’s clear that the Washington Nationals will have a tough decision to make.

However, it seems like the Nationals are already preparing to move on without Strasburg.

According to MLB.com, Washington has interest in Ryan Dempster and Rockies catcher Ramon Hernandez. The Nationals have John Lannan in the minors, but they would definitely benefit from trading for Dempster.

The consistent ace is 5-3 with a league-leading 1.86 ERA this year. A lot of teams will be pursuing Dempster, since Chicago is looking to stockpile prospects for future success. Washington has a great farm system, so they could definitely make a trade.

If the Nationals did trade for Dempster, they would probably have Strasburg, Dempster, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman and Edwin Jackson in their rotation. After Strasburg leaves, Ross Detwiler would join the rotation.

Washington would have to give up a lot, but it would definitely be worth it. Dempster is a great pitcher who could really help the Nationals. Even if the Nationals decided to keep Strasburg in the rotation, Dempster would still help the team and just make the best pitching staff in baseball even better.

The team’s four best pitchers would wreak havoc on the league and greatly enhance Washington’s chances of winning a championship. Just imagine a playoff rotation of Dempster, Gonzalez, Strasburg and Zimmerman (if Strasburg pitches). All have ERA’s under 3, and all have a WHIP under 1.12.

If the Nationals didn’t trade for Dempster, they would probably call up John Lannan to pitch in September. Lannan has had a nice career in Washington, but he is 6-8 with a 4.60 ERA with Triple-A Syracuse. Dempster is definitely better than Lannan, and he would definitely help the Nationals a lot.

Washington is known for having a young, well-rounded team. They have the lowest team ERA in baseball, even though two inconsistent pitchers, Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler, reside in their rotation. Just imagine how much better the rotation would be with Dempster, even if Strasburg gets shut down or skipped.

Dempster would welcome a trade to just about any contender, and, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, he would likely be happy with a trade to Washington. Dempster is in the last year of his contract, but Washington could re-sign him and have he, Strasburg, Zimmerman and Gonzalez dominate hitters for a couple more years.

It will take a lot, but the Nationals would definitely benefit from trading a few prospects for Dempster. Washington would undoubtedly have the best rotation in baseball during the month of August, and they would still have a great rotation without Strasburg in September. If the Nats re-signed Dempster, they’d have the best rotation for a few more years.

And it’s always good to have the best rotation. The Nationals may have the best rotation right now, but in September, their pitching will take a major hit. If Strasburg is shut down and Dempster isn’t brought in to Washington, imagine how Jackson and Detwiler would pitch in the playoffs.

I’m sure Nationals fans don’t want to imagine that. So that’s why the Nats need to bring in Dempster. 

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Breaking Down the Washington Nationals’ 4 Biggest Second-Half Storylines

The Washington Nationals have been and will be an interesting team to watch.

After years of building up young talent and sending them into the farm system, Washington’s young dream team has finally been assembled. Players like Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper were all drafted by Washington, and they are all making a splash.

And it wasn’t just the draft. Washington signed Jayson Werth in the 2010 offseason and traded for Gio Gonzalez in the 2011 offseason.

Now, the Nationals lead the NL East by 2.5 games, and they’re ready to fight to the finish in a tight NL East race that everyone will be talking about.

Here are the Nationals’ four biggest second-half storylines.

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Washington Nationals: Midseason Grades

For the first time since their inaugural season in 2005, the Washington Nationals have been fun to watch. It’s been a grueling process, but all aspects are starting to come to fruition.

They have one of best ballparks in all of baseball, the majority of their players are homegrown and their fanbase seems to be increasing on a game-to-game basis.

The first-place Nats had to do it the old-fashioned way, lead by an old-fashioned manager Davey Johnson. Regardless if they tail off, (which could very well happen to an inexperienced team) positive strides were made to the future of the franchise in the first three months of the season.

What’s even more impressive is that a lot of the players on the roster are not even playing up to their potential.

Below are my mid-season grades for each guy on the team.

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Should Nats Use Stephen Strasburg as Pinch-Hit Weapon After He’s Shut Down?

Those who frown upon National League baseball often point to the pitcher hitting as a reason why the game isn’t as appealing as its American League counterpart.

The pitcher batting ninth tends to be an automatic out. With little ability (or interest, as it sometimes appears) to make any sort of contribution at the plate, pitchers are usually asked to bunt. If pitchers are going to make an out anyway, managers figure they may as well move along a baserunner. 

But some pitchers take the responsibility of hitting seriously and are quite good at it. Miami Marlins pitcher Carlos Zambrano has hit respectably in the past. In three of his 12 seasons, he’s actually hit .300. Dontrelle Willis hit so well with the Marlins and Cincinnati Reds that whenever he struggled as a pitcher, many suggested that he should be moved to the outfield. 

Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg has become a threat with the bat as well. This season, the Nats’ ace is hitting .348/.375/.652 with four doubles, one home run and two RBI in 25 plate appearances. Those four doubles are more than some players with eight times the number of at-bats, including Orlando Hudson, Justin Smoak and Marlon Byrd. 

With Strasburg pitching through his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery, it’s been generally understood that the Nationals will impose an innings limit on their ace.

According to Kevin Kaduk of Yahoo! Sports, general manager Mike Rizzo disputes reports that Strasburg’s season will be capped at 160 innings. But that number may have been considered without a division title run in mind. With the Nats leading the NL East, that innings limit may get pushed up a bit, depending on how Strasburg looks as his workload increases. 

But considering how Strasburg has been hitting, should the Nationals still try to make use of him once he’s reached his innings limit and is shut down for the season?

Not too many teams can bring a bat off the bench with a .348 batting average and .652 slugging percentage. Strasburg could be a valuable pinch-hitter at the end of the season, or maybe even during the postseason. 

Even better for manager Davey Johnson, Strasburg could be especially effective against left-handed pitching. Yes, we’re talking about a sample size of only eight plate appearances. But Strasburg is hitting .571 (4-for-7) against lefties this season. He hit his home run off Baltimore Orioles left-hander Wei-Yin Chen. 

Would Johnson consider bringing in Strasburg to face, say, Aroldis Chapman in the late innings of a playoff game between the Nationals and Reds? Maybe the stakes are too high there. And Johnson would probably opt for a veteran like Mark DeRosa, or perhaps someone with some pop like Tyler Moore if a pinch-hitter were needed in such a situation. That’s the safer move. 

It’s probably worth mentioning that Strasburg began his major league career batting 1-for-30 with 12 strikeouts. Did something just click for him at the plate or is Strasburg’s true ability as a hitter somewhere in between that terrible beginning and his current success?

But if there were no better options than Strasburg, why not use him off the bench? If he keeps hitting the way he has, he might be the best option.

 

Follow @iancass on Twitter

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Bryce Harper Has Historic Night, Stephen Strasburg Ks 13 in Nats’ Rout of Sox

Stephen Strasburg allowed the Boston Red Sox to put two runs on the board in the second inning to take an early lead over the Washington Nationals on Friday night at Fenway Park.

Bryce Harper wasted no time taking part in the rally in the next half-inning that allowed the Nationals to take a 3-2 lead, a lead that they would never give back.

After a Danny Espinosa walk, Harper doubled to set up Ryan Zimmerman with runners on second and third. Zimmerman delivered with a single that plated Espinosa. Harper and Zimmerman would later score on an Ian Desmond double, giving the Nats the 3-2 lead.

In the next inning, Harper did it again when he smashed a two-run home run to right-center field, next to the 420-foot marker. It was an historic home run, as Harper became only the fourth visiting teenager to ever hit a home run at Fenway Park, joining Hall of Famers Robin Yount, Mickey Mantle and Al Kaline. 

Harper also finished the night with three hits, joining only Ken Griffey, Jr., and Kaline as the only visiting teenagers to have three hits at Fenway in the last 72 years, according to ESPN.com.

The closest the Red Sox came to getting back in the game was in the sixth inning. Strasburg started the inning with another strikeout but then allowed Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Gonzalez to reach base with hits. David Ortiz then walked to load the bases. That is when Strasburg showed everyone why he is one the best pitchers in baseball.

Strasburg mowed down Jarrod Saltalamacchia and then got Kevin Youkilis on a borderline pitch to end the inning. He froze Youkilis and it led to Youkilis being ejected.

That was all for Strasburg on the night, and when everything settled his final line read 13 strikeouts in six innings. He allowed four hits and two earned runs while throwing a career-high 119 pitches.

The Nationals went into Fenway Park, won 7-4 and showed why they are one of the best teams in baseball. Strasburg’s dominance and Harper’s explosive bat can lead them a long way this season.

Furthermore, the win proved that they are able to contend with any team, whether a National League foe or a talented AL East team.

Strasburg is now 7-1 with a 2.41 ERA, while Harper raised his batting average to .288 with his three hits in five at-bats. 

 

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Chipper Jones Rates Stephen Strasburg Ahead of Maddux, Smoltz, Pedro and Johnson

“He has the best stuff, the best repertoire of pitches that I’ve seen on any one single pitcher,” Chipper Jones said about Stephen Strasburg Friday, as reported by Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal Constitution.

Who are we to question him?

I mean, none of us has ever faced Jones’ teammates Greg Maddux, John Smoltz or Tom Glavine. Neither has Jones, but he has seen enough of each to compare them to Strasburg.

Jones batted against Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Randy Johnson and possibly the greatest of them all, Roger Clemens.

Don’t conclude that Jones has said that Strasburg is or can be greater than any of the above-mentioned future Hall of Famers: He said Strasburg “…has the best stuff, the best repertoire of pitches…”

Maddux and Glavine relied on their assortment of pitches.

Smoltz, Santana, Johnson and Clemens had unbelievable fastballs that they complemented with either cutters, curves or split-fingered fastballs. Their two pitches made them more effective than Strasburg’s repertoire might ever make him.

Jones is an old man by baseball standards. He is hanging on, which is, in some ways, admirable. This season, despite injuries, he is batting .307 with five home runs in 101 at-bats.

One question is, how would Chipper Jones at his peak—which is when he observed Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine—have ranked Strasburg?

At the age of 23, Strasburg has started 26 major league games. He has pitched 145 innings.

It is impossible to know what kind of a career Strasburg will have. In 2010, he tore his ulnar collateral ligament, which resulted in Tommy John surgery.

A long time ago, there was a pitcher named Karl Spooner that had as good a fastball as anyone had ever seen—or at least it seemed that way to opposing batters in Spooner’s first two starts.

Karl Spooner made his major league debut  on Sept. 22, 1954, shutting out the soon-to-be World Champion New York Giants.

The Brooklyn Dodgers‘ young left-hander struck out 15 Giants to set the strikeout record for a major league pitching debut, which J.R. Richard equaled a few years later.

In his next and final start of the 1954 season, Spooner shut out the Pirates, striking out 12, to set the record of 27 strikeouts by a pitcher in his first two games.

Brooklyn fans shouted, “Spooner should have come up sooner.”

Pitching at Fort Worth in June 1954, Spooner had hurt his knee while playing pepper. He eventually needed surgery.

He changed his motion because of the bad knee, and he was finished at the age of 24.

Chipper Jones isn’t alone in his evaluation of Strasburg. We can only hope that the Nationals ace fulfills his potential.

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Why the Nationals Should Lock Up Strasburg, Harper to Long-Term Deals NOW

Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper are the future of the Washington Nationals

Strasburg will be the ace of a formidable starting rotation for years to come, and Bryce Harper will anchor the outfield and the lineup with his five-tool talent. The future is in good hands. 

Here are seven reasons why the Washington Nationals need to quickly sign both players to long-term contracts to ensure the successful future of the franchise.

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