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The Tampa Bay Rays pitching staff struck out 287 batters in June, setting a new MLB record for most strikeouts by a team in one calendar month, according to MLB.com. The previous record of 286 was set in August 2002 by the Chicago Cubs, who rode the right arms of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior into the record books.

It looked like the Rays would fall just short of the milestone Monday night, as they carried a 3-2 lead into the ninth inning against the New York Yankees in their final game of the month. Entering the inning with 283 punchouts in June, Tampa Bay needed Joel Peralta to strike out the side just to match the Cubs’ historic mark.

Instead, Peralta struck out just one batter but also surrendered a game-tying solo home run to Yankees second baseman Brian Roberts, thus sending the contest into extra innings. Tampa’s Grant Balfour fanned a pair of batters in the 10th inning to tie the 2002 Cubs record then gave way to Brad Boxberger for the 11th and 12th frames.

After Boxberger failed to record a K in the 11th, the Rays took a 4-3 lead in the top of the 12th thanks to an RBI single from Logan Forsythe. Needing just one strikeout to make history, Boxberger fanned future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki to lead off the bottom of the 12th. Once the game finished with a pair of groundouts, the Rays went home with both a victory and the MLB record for most strikeouts in a calendar month.

While it was Boxberger on the hill for the historic punchout, starting pitcher David Price was the catalyst behind Tampa Bay’s record-setting month. The 6’6″ lefty fanned double-digit batters in each of his five June starts, finishing the month with 54 strikeouts in just 39.2 innings.

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The Tampa Bay Rays are likely going to trade David Price in July. And when they do, they’re likely going to get some really good stuff in return.

But here’s a warning for all interested parties: Be careful on this one, man. Price is still a very good pitcher, but neither his present nor his future is as bright as his past.

A few days after Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote how it’s becoming “increasingly obvious” that a Price trade is going to happen, ESPN’s Buster Olney is saying rival officials believe the Rays are ready to deal “right now.”

Olney cited additional sources who said the Rays “aren’t actually close” to trading Price, mind you. Nonetheless, he is right in thinking that, thanks to the Rays’ 31-47 record and Price’s looming free agency after 2015, “the climate is right” for the 2012 American League Cy Young winner to be dealt.

As for the 28-year-old’s value, the notion that Price has pitched better than his 3.81 ERA is already widespread. There are numbers that support this, starting with these from ESPN Stats & Info:

Price has earned his remarkable K/BB ratio. According to FanGraphs, he’s throwing more first-pitch strikes, more pitches in the strike zone and getting more whiffs than he ever has as a starter.

And it’s largely because of his K/BB ratio that Price fares a lot better in metrics that value strikeouts and walks when determining what a pitcher’s ERA should be. Those include FIP, xFIP and SIERA, which agree that Price deserves better than a 3.81 ERA.

Via FanGraphs:

Ordinarily, I recommend taking these metrics’ word for it when it comes to assessing a given pitcher’s effectiveness. By focusing largely on strikeouts and walks, they focus on the two most important things a pitcher can control better than ERA does.

But Price is a special case. For all the stats that say he’s perhaps never been harder to hit, a deeper dive says the exact opposite is the real truth.

We can begin with the obvious: Price’s heat is not what it used to be. After a two-mile-per-hour drop in average fastball velocity in 2013, according to FanGraphs, Price’s average velocity is down again to a career-low 92.9 miles per hour in 2014.

And while Olney noted that Price’s velocity has gotten better, there’s a catch to that. He did go from an average of 92.1 in March/April to 93.6 in May, but he is back down to 93.1 in June. Outside of May, he has indeed been working with career-worst fastball velocity in 2014.

It’s to Price’s credit that he’s still been able to get whiffs with his hard stuff. In fact, there’s a chart at Brooks Baseball that shows how all his pitches are experiencing increased whiff rates.

But there’s also this one, which shows the rate at which Price’s pitches have been turned into fly balls:

Focus on the black and gray lines. Those represent Price’s four-seamer and sinker, otherwise known as the hard pitches he’s using most often. Both have clearly been easier than usual to elevate in 2014.

This helps explain not only Price’s diminished ground-ball habit, but his home run problem as well.

Price has already matched his 2012 and 2013 totals with 16 home runs allowed in 2014, and Brooks Baseball tells us seven homers of those homers have come on four-seamers and sinkers. This after giving up only six homers on those two pitches in all of 2013.

That Price’s diminished velocity has something to do with this is a safe enough assumption. With his hard stuff generally coming across slower than before, hitters stand a better chance of squaring it up.

But that’s not the only apparent problem that Price’s diminished velocity is causing. It also appears to be impacting his offspeed stuff.

The whole point of offspeed pitches is to fool hitters. One way to do that is getting them off-balance. One thing that can do that job is good velocity differential between a pitcher’s fast stuff and slow stuff.

And going off the velocity figures at FanGraphs, good velocity differential between his changeup and curveball and his heat is something Price is lacking in 2014:

The velocity differential between Price’s heat and his changeup has never been smaller. The velocity differential between his heat and his curveball, meanwhile, is only slightly bigger than last year’s low.

The lack of velocity differential between Price’s heat and hook cost him last year, and it’s costing him again in 2014:

Meanwhile, things aren’t much better with Price’s changeup:

Further compounding matters is that Price isn’t putting these pitches out of reach. After accounting for just 7.5 percent of his pitches between 2009 and 2012, BaseballSavant.com says changeups and curves inside the strike zone have accounted for 12.0 percent of Price’s pitches in 2013 and 2014.

And so far this year, opponents are hitting Price’s changeups and curves in the strike zone at a .383 clip with a .728 slugging percentage and seven home runs. He’s thus being burned not just by diminished stuff, but by predictability as well.

[As a side note, by pal Jake Dal Porto has more on what’s going on with Price’s changeup over at Beyond the Box Score.]

All told, there’s a pretty good picture of why Price’s 3.81 ERA is actually an accurate measure of his effectiveness. His diminished velocity is a problem with both his hard stuff (obviously) and his slow stuff, and his over-willingness to throw his slow stuff in the strike zone isn’t helping.

Now, granted, a pitcher who can maintain an ERA at 3.81 or thereabouts is hardly a lost cause. There are a lot of teams that could stand to add a guy like that, especially one who eats innings seemingly by the dozen. Whoever trades for Price will be acquiring an asset for a playoff push. No question about it.

Any team that makes a deal for Price expecting to get a true ace in return, however, is likely to be disappointed.

Convincing Price to throw more offspeed pitches outside the zone can be done, but his old velocity is likely only going to be there in spurts. There’s no fixing that, and living with it will mean having to live with more hard-hit balls than Price gave up in his glory days.

And that’s just this year. Remember, whoever trades for Price will have him in 2015, too. And at the rate he’s going, the diminished talents he has now at age 28 are going to be even more diminished at age 29.

Buyers should be interested, but buyers should also beware.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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The Tampa Bay Rays have set a new record for offensive futility after getting shut out by the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night, per SportsCenter:

The defeat is Tampa Bay’s 14th in its last 15 games, per Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times:

Going 28 scoreless innings breaks the old franchise record of 26 innings, set in 2002, when the team finished tied for the worst record in baseball at 55-106, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times:

The Rays are also the first American League team in a decade to be shut out three games in a row:

After the game, Joe Maddon talked about his team’s struggles with The Associated Press (per ESPN):

It’s kind of weird to watch because it just doesn’t stay that negative for that long normally. It just doesn’t but it has. This is truly one of those anomaly moments where we’ve got to stick together as a group.

If you’re wondering how this could happen, Tampa Bay was hitting .100 in its last 100 at-bats with runners in scoring position when Ben Zobrist flied out in the bottom of the first:

Tampa Bay actually outhit St. Louis on Tuesday night, 8-3.

The Rays stranded Evan Longoria on second base in the bottom of the first inning. They also squandered runners on second and third with one out in the bottom of the fourth. Kevin Kiermaier’s ground-rule double to start off the bottom of the eighth was spoiled when nobody could drive him in.

It should be no surprise that as a result of this dry spell and general malaise, the Rays have slumped to last in the AL East, 15 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays. Their 24-42 record is the worst in the major leagues, as is their run differential of minus-55.

Tampa Bay will score sooner or later, but the damage has already been done for this season. The door has essentially closed on the postseason.

Assuming the Rays feel they have no chance to contend, it could have a ripple effect on the rest of the league if they ultimately decide to deal ace David Price before the trade deadline.

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You know those mutual fund ads that end with something like “past performance does not guarantee future results?” The Tampa Bay Rays medical staff, historically one of the top staffs in terms of results, is having a tough year. Its latest bad break is losing Wil Myers, its young slugging outfielder, for two months to a surprising stress fracture in his wrist, according to MLB.com. That could mean that Myers will be down on power for the rest of 2014.

The Rays only got half of the good news they were looking for. The team had been hoping that Myers could avoid surgery, and that looks to be the case now. However, the wrist is a very complex structure and if the fracture doesn’t heal perfectly, surgery may be necessary down the line. The key here is that something overstressed one of the bones, and that causation will need to be addressed.

The wrist appears simple from the outside, but it is a very complex joint, needed both for the hinging between the arm and hand and also for small movements, rotation and finger movements/grip. It is a structure of small interconnected bones lined with tendons, ligaments and cartilage, and all can be thrown off by even minute changes. 

Fractures are common and are difficult to heal due to the shape and positioning of the bones. Moving any of the connective structure can cause problems, and the area tends to have issues with scar tissue, which can alter the structure’s delicate balance. Worse, the problems can linger, especially with tendon or ligament involvement.

The most common problem after return from any wrist problem is a loss of power. Even surgically repaired wrists tend to show a short-term loss of power, likely from impeded motion leading to a loss of bat speed. That short term tends to last about six to eight weeks.

The best example of this is Pablo Sandoval, who has had both wrists fractured and repaired surgically. In both cases, he came back fine once time passed and the wrists were back to normal. Even gap power or “loud outs” are a positive sign if you’re watching to see when Myers might be ready to return to his normal level. 

In the short term, the Rays will use a combination of Ben Zobrist (himself just returned from the disabled list), Matt Joyce and Jerry Sands in right field. Joe Maddon will have to adjust his roster and potentially lose some flexibility with Zobrist in the outfield, but the team needs to maximize the situation.

Watch to see if Maddon finds ways to get Kevin Kiermaier into the lineup. The speedy defensive specialist is caught behind Desmond Jennings but has both power and stolen base potential if used. 

With the Rays in a disappointing slump and losing Myers for an extended period, plus his likely power drop, there are concerns that the team will consider trading off players like David Price or smaller pieces like a resurgent David DeJesus. I’ve known that front office a long time, and the Rays never act rashly, so I don’t think a six-week injury to even a star like Myers will change its plan. 

For Myers, his 2014 will be a down year. While he will likely return to the lineup sometime in mid-to-late July, his power may not return until near the end of the season, if then. His slash line and peripheral stats are already quite disappointing, but an injury takes away some of his chance to turn that around.

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Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Wil Myers is currently battling through a right wrist injury that he suffered in Friday’s loss to the Boston Red Sox, according to the Tampa Bay Times‘ Joe Smith on Twitter:

Smith explains how the injury came about:

The 23-year-old Myers is batting .227 with five home runs and 25 RBI through his first 53 regular-season appearances in 2014 and has started 52 games in right field for the Rays.

With Tampa Bay currently in last place in the American League East division, it’s safe to say that the Rays can ill afford to be without Myers for an extended period of time. Runs have been awfully difficult to come by for the Rays this season, and although Myers has struggled immensely at the plate in his sophomore season in the bigs, he brings tremendous potential to the table, as pointed out by ESPN’s Buster Olney during Wednesday’s loss to the Toronto Blue Jays:

After all, the Thomasville, North Carolina, native batted .293 with 13 homers and 53 RBI in his debut season in 2013. 

Myers’ strong play was a key force in Tampa Bay’s playoff push last fall, and there’s no question the Rays are worse off without him. 

Fortunately for manager Joe Maddon and the team, Myers’ injury doesn’t appear to be all that serious or anything that will keep him out of the lineup for a lengthy period of time. Perhaps a short break will even be good for Myers, who has clearly lost his rhythm and confidence at the plate. 

It remains to be seen how long Myers will be out for, but it’s obvious that the Rays have bigger issues to address heading into the season’s midway point. 

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Updates from Tuesday, April 8

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times provides an update on Matt Moore’s injury:

MLB.com provides what the next step for Moore will be: 

Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan has more on Moore:

Original Text:

Matt Moore left the Tampa Bay Rays‘ Monday night game against the Kansas City Royals after suffering an elbow injury.

Moore was replaced after 4.1 innings by Cesar Ramos after giving up one earned run on four hits.

MLB.com’s Bill Chastain reported that Moore “grimaced” after throwing a pitch to Nori Aoki. He then shook his arm to demonstrate that something was wrong.

Rays manager Joe Maddon and assistant athletic trainer Paul Harker visited Moore on the mound, and Maddon ultimately decided to take him out of the game.

Tampa Bay announced that Moore will have an MRI tomorrow, but the arm injury isn’t believed to be serious:

R. Mooney of The Tampa Tribune provided more info:

Baseball insider Mel Antonen doesn’t like what he sees for the Rays:

2014 projected to be a big year for the 24-year-old. After stumbling a bit in 2012, everything came together for him last season, as he went 17-4 with a 3.29 earned run average and finished ninth in the Cy Young Award voting.

Moore is listed third in the Rays’ rotation, so the team could be without a key piece of its pitching staff for a prolonged period of time. That’s huge in what looks like a hyper-competitive American League East once again.

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The Tampa Bay Rays are two weeks away from the start of the 2014 season.

They entered spring training looking for a fifth starter, final reliever and final bench player to fill their Opening Day roster.

Even though the roster was essentially set before Grapefruit League began, there is still a lot of incentive for players to put forward great effort in the exhibition games.

The primary reason is that you never know when a need will arise that will require a minor league player to move up to the majors. Jeremy Hellickson’s surgery is a perfect example of a position that was filled that turns into an immediate priority need to fill.

Players not on the 40-man roster or in the organization’s farm system utilize spring training to try to earn a job. It is a job interview for many players with only few openings available annually.

Spring training also marks the highest level of optimism for franchises and fan bases.

For the Rays, there are high expectations set for new acquisitions including catcher Ryan Hanigan and relievers Grant Balfour and Heath Bell. There are even higher expectations for returning players to improve from the previous season, such as pitchers Chris Archer and Matt Moore.

On the other hand, there are lesser known prospects that have low levels of expectation that put together great performances in the spring. Stephen Vogt was one of those players for the years a few years ago in spring training and earned himself a spot on the Opening Day roster after an injury to Luke Scott.

Based on the level of expectation comes the titles of surprise players and busts in spring training.

Here is an update of the surprises, busts and injuries so far this spring for the Rays.

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The Tampa Bay Rays have most of their roster spots already locked in for 2014.

Unless a player like Sean Rodriguez has a completely terrible spring, there are only two spots available on the 25-man roster. Those openings are for the final bench player and final reliever.

Jeremy Hellickson’s surgery has opened a need for a fifth starter; though that position is a temporary fill until he returns in May.

Jayson Nix is working to solidify himself for the final bench position.

Working to his advantage is his ability to play multiple positions. The majority of his career (300 games out of 405) he has played either third base (179 games) or second base (121 games). In addition, he has appeared in 83 games at shortstop and 22 games as a corner outfielder.

Being able to play multiple positions fits perfectly into the Rays’ mold. Rodriguez and Ben Zobrist are other players on the roster who provide manager Joe Maddon with the flexibility to move them around to create the best lineup overall.

So far this spring training, Maddon has been impressed with the effort of Nix, as he explained to Joe Smith from the Tampa Bay Times.

This guy is an uber professional. That’s all he’s about. He just wants to play the game, play it right, be part of a group and understand what the overall philosophy is. I’ve known him for a week, I feel like I’ve known him for the last 10 years. Any manager, any organization would love to have him within the group. He is that guy.

Injuries are an important factor that can increase the odds that Nix makes the roster.

The loss of Tim Beckham for the year creates an additional need for a versatile infielder. Rays prospect Hak-Ju Lee is recovering from a knee injury sustained last year in Triple-A Durham.

Another asset he brings to the table is consistent defense. He has a career .967 fielding percentage over his six seasons in the majors. At second base, he excels with a .988 fielding percentage.

One area of concern is the lack of offensive production.

He has a career .218/.290/.358 line. Last season, he had 80 strikeouts in 87 games with the New York Yankees.

Nix will have to edge out other infielders including Logan Forsythe and Vince Belnome, who are also competing in spring training to make the Opening Day roster.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.

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Every spring training, there are players that break out from the pack and perform above any expectation.

Shelley Duncan fit that role for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2013. He signed a minor league deal with the team that included an invitation to spring training in January 2013. He then led the team with five home runs tied for third on the team with 10 RBI during spring training last year. At the conclusion of the spring, he earned a spot on the Opening Day roster made available due to a Luke Scott injury.

He was designated for assignment in April 2013 once Scott was ready to return.

In 2012, Stephen Vogt found himself on the Opening Day roster after an injury to B.J. Upton. During spring training, he compiled a .323/.382/.484 line in 31 at-bats, the best of any catcher. He started the season with no hits and no walks in 17 at-bats over 10 games. He was sent back to Triple-A before being called up in September to finish the season with two walks and no hits in 25 at-bats over 18 games.

Who will be the breakout player this season?

Here are four players that could play their way onto the Rays’ Opening Day roster this spring training.

All statistics obtained from Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.

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The Tampa Bay Rays are preparing to begin their spring training for the 2014 season. The team is coming off another successful season, making the postseason for the fourth time in six seasons.

Unlike many recent years, the Rays do not have to begin spring training discussing the loss of any marquee players needing to be filled with an unproven prospect.

That fact coupled with the amount of talent added to the roster has this year’s team being mentioned as perhaps the greatest Rays team ever. That is quite an expectation to set, considering the team has won at least 90 games in five of their last six seasons and made the World Series in 2008.

Rays manager Joe Maddon shared his excitement on this year’s team with Roger Mooney from the Tampa Tribune.

You can argue 2010, that was a pretty good team. And 2008 turned out to be pretty good also. All I know is I like the names a lot, but I just can’t sit here and tell you unequivocally that this is the best team we’ve ever had. We’ve had some good teams go to spring training in the past, also. … I like the names. I say that every year. I think Andrew did a great job of balancing everything out is the best way to describe it.

No matter how the team looks on paper, it will mean nothing if the Rays do not bring it all together on the field.

That process starts when pitchers and catchers report on Friday.

All statistics courtesy of baseball-reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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