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For the Tampa Bay Rays, planning to trade star pitcher David Price isn’t so much a matter of whether the price is right but when the timing is.

At the end of the 2013 season, speculation started that the small-market Rays more than likely would be swapping their ace left-hander, primarily because of his escalating salary and imminent free agency following 2015.

Heck, even Price himself made it clear that he was expecting to be traded back in October, right after the Rays were eliminated by the eventual champion Boston Red Sox in the division series, telling Roger Mooney of The Tampa Tribune, “If you go with what’s been done in the past I guess you’re going to have to think you’re going to get traded.”

But in recent weeks, the chatter has died down and with it the expectation that Price is on his way out. He even avoided the arbitration process by agreeing Thursday with Tampa on a salary of $14 million for next season, per Adam Berry of MLB.com.

As for the possibility he could be wearing another uniform sooner rather than later, Price told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times:

I think if I’m in camp [with the Rays], I would be on the team, because that would stink if I would be a part of the team in spring training and everybody thinks I’d be there along with them and then I get traded a couple days into spring or something like that. … Probably Feb. 1 would be a time period that I think would kind of let me know that I would be here.

That, of course, doesn’t mean Price can’t—or won’t—be traded in the next two weeks or so.

The question, then, is when would the Rays get the most out of dealing the former Cy Young winner: Now, before the start of the season…or later, near the July trade deadline?

Why Now

Simply, more time translates to more production value, which should equal a greater return.

In other words, trading Price prior to the 2014 season means the Rays should be able to ask for more because the acquiring team will get him for up to two full seasons, rather than a season-and-a-half. That might not seem like a huge difference, but it is.

That’s especially true for a starting pitcher, who only goes to work maybe 32 or 33 times a year, so to speak. If Price were to be traded in mid- to late July—well past the actual midpoint of the 162-game schedule—he may only be able to impact up to 12 or 13 games.

It’s also especially true because Price may very well decide not to sign a long-term extension with a new squad, choosing instead to test the free-agent market, which is a mighty appealing place for what would be a 30-year-old southpaw with a rather impressive resume.

At this very moment, any team that considers (or fancies) itself a contender could be willing to give up a premium package of young, cost-controlled players/prospects for two full years of Price, whose total salary is likely to be about $30 million over that time—a reasonable cost for a front-of-the-rotation arm these days.

But if a few of those contender-hopeful clubs don’t perform up to expectations by midseason, they won’t see the point in trading for Price. The market could be much more limited, which wouldn’t be a good thing for Tampa.

Why Later

There are two main reasons why later could be better for the Rays to consider peddling Price.

The first is that, well, they themselves are contenders, so trading away their top pitcher—no matter how expensive he is to fit into their already maxed out budget—mere weeks before the start of a season that could lead to another October opportunity seems like competitive suicide.

The other? There’s still plenty of pitching available to be had. From free-agent starters like Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana and Matt Garza—not to mention, Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka—to trade targets like Jeff Samardzija and Homer Bailey, teams in need of pitching do have other options, should they so choose.

Beyond those, there’s also the fact that interested parties might want to see how Price pitches and whether he’s fully healthy over the first half of the season. Remember, he missed about six weeks last year due to an injury the Rays characterized as left triceps tendinitis.

Plus, the desperation factor can’t be overlooked. During the middle of the summer, as performance and injury become issues and pennant races just begin heating up, needs will arise, pressure will mount and the now-or-never aspect of the July 31 trade deadline will loom large.

The one problem with all of this, of course, is that the Rays might not realistically be able to trade Price that late in the year if they are contending for a playoff spot or the AL East title themselves. How could they?

The Price Is Right—Now

Ultimately, if Tampa is going to move Price, the extra three or four months of production and value he can add to a new team should be enough to help the Rays get more in return now compared to later, even considering the potential fracas that could come from desperate clubs at the trade deadline.

Right now, though, the bigger issue is that there just doesn’t seem to be much motivation for Tampa Bay to trade Price given the squad’s status entering 2014.

Plus, unlike trying to trade him in July when there’s an actual deadline that forces teams to get something done by a predetermined point in time—thus creating natural leverage—attempting to move Price now means it would be incumbent upon the Rays to create that kind of leverage themselves.

Certainly, this could be done by giving interested suitors a deadline of sorts and then allowing them to bid against each other for the right to get Price.

Maybe that’s been the Rays’ plan all along. Maybe they’ve just been waiting until Tanaka—the top target on the pitching market at the moment—is signed, sealed and delivered to a major league team by Jan. 24, the deadline for him to decide.

By then, even with the likes of Jimenez, Santana and Garza still out there for the paying, the Rays would be in a better position to bargain with the clubs fresh off losing out on the Japanese right-hander. After all, once the Tanaka domino falls, all the others will soon tip over, too.

The question, then, really isn’t whether the Rays would get more by trading Price now or at the deadline, but whether they want to trade him at all this year.

If they do, then the Price is right—now.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

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Let me preface all this by saying the following to the Tampa Bay Rays: Alright, I get where you’re coming from.

But still…I don’t know, guys. What you seem to be getting at is a risky play.

This, naturally, is about David Price. The star lefty hasn’t been traded yet, but the day has featured some whispering about his situation.

Here’s what ESPN’s Buster Olney noted in his daily Insider column:

Increasingly, rival executives are convinced that David Price will remain with the Rays for the 2014 season. ‘Ninety percent chance he stays,’ said one rival official. ‘The [trade] market hasn’t materialized.’

So it goes. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com wrote in December that the Rays seemed to be “wholly unimpressed” by the offers they were getting. Also in December, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote that the club’s intentions were in a holding pattern: Willing to listen, but in no hurry to deal.

And I’m not so sure that’s what’s best for the Rays.

Listen, the incentive for the Rays to hold on to Price is still there. They’re looking to contend in 2014. Price owns a 3.02 ERA in over 800 innings pitched over the last four seasons. Ergo, dear Watson, Price’s track record says he can help the Rays contend.

Also, Price is still under Tampa Bay’s control through 2015. He’ll be expensive in 2014, but not too expensive. It’s not like the Rays will have to put him out on the curb with a “FREE!” sticker on him if they can’t get a good offer.

And yet, I’d be more supportive of the Rays keeping a vice-like grip on Price if there was little risk of his value being lower the next time they’re looking to trade him than it is now.

Thing is, I wouldn’t characterize that risk as little.

We’re going to talk a bit now about Price’s 2013 season, and we’re going to start by breaking it up into two halves: pre–arm injury and post-arm injury.

We can make it simple by focusing on simple things:

Note: The HR/FB numbers were calculated using data from FanGraphs.

If you’re looking strictly at ERA, one of these halves was clearly better than the other. After posting a 2.56 ERA in 2012, Price was basically himself in his last 18 starts.

It wasn’t because he suddenly got a lot more overpowering, however. Price’s K% remained in the low 20s, disappointing stuff in light of his 24.5 K% from 2012. What changed was that Price’s already outstanding command got even better, and balls hit in play went for outs and stayed in the park more consistently.

Price deserves credit for the first thing. But the other thing? Maybe not so much.

The best way for pitchers to get batted balls to go for outs is to induce ground balls. Price did that better than ever in 2012 with a career-high 53.1 GB%. Alas, Price’s GB% actually dropped from 48.8 before his injury to 43.2 after his injury in 2013. Fewer ground balls typically means fewer easy outs. It certainly means more potential home runs. 

With BABIP and HR/FB, what goes down has been known to come up. I fear that with Price in 2014, doubly so if he’s still having issues missing bats.

It’s a fair bet that he will be if his velocity doesn’t make a recovery. Per Brooks Baseball, here’s what happened with Price’s hard stuff in 2013:

Price lost about two miles per hour off both his four-seamer and sinker, and a mile per hour off his cutter. Unsurprisingly, there was more contact and more hits against all three pitches.

The picture isn’t more encouraging if we break things down by what happened before and after Price’s arm injury:

Price’s velocity on his sinker and four-seamer barely budged. His cutter velocity dropped. There was more contact against all three pitches, and it’s fluky that the batting averages against his sinker and cutter dropped like they did.

Before his injury, Price’s sinker boasted a GB/BIP rate of 55.07. It fell to 48.75 after his injury.

Likewise, Price’s cutter boasted a 50.00 GB/BIP rate before his injury. It fell to 36.36 after his injury.

The short version: Price seems like a lucky guy to have succeeded with decreased velocity like he did. Maybe he won’t be so lucky in 2014. And maybe—Eek!—his velocity will decline even more. 

Now, OK, sure. Price won’t necessarily be doomed to fail without his 2012 velocity. He has superb command, and superb command is a fine complement for lesser velocity. Take a look at Cliff Lee. Maybe Price can be like him.

Even if that is the case, though, you know who notices things like declining velocity? Other teams. And you know who’s going to be wary of pulling off a mega-deal next winter for a guy with declining velocity? Other teams again.

So trading Price now while his velocity, while down, is still respectable and he’s coming off a strong finish? That’s striking while the iron is hot. 

That’s not the only advantage of trading Price now. There’s also the reality that the market for him probably isn’t going to be as strong the next time the Rays are looking to deal, regardless of what Price does in 2014.

We can take it for granted that Price won’t be traded during the season, after all. Contenders aren’t in the habit of trading pieces they need. Even if all Price is doing is eating innings, he’ll be a piece the Rays need.

A deal next winter is the more likely scenario. And one thing next winter’s going to have that this one doesn’t is a good supply of top-of-the-rotation starters.

Here’s a list of starters who are due for free agency after 2014:

• Clayton Kershaw
• Max Scherzer
• James Shields
• Jon Lester
• Homer Bailey
• Justin Masterson

All six of these guys will be in line for multi-year deals if they do end up hitting free agency, and all six are more desirable than the top domestic (i.e. not Masahiro Tanaka) multi-year options that hit this winter’s market: Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and Ricky Nolasco.

If I had to guess, as many as four or five of the above six will hit free agency. And at this rate, one of those might even be Kershaw.

Right now, the Rays are holding an ace in a winter where aces are hard to come by. If they hold on to Price until next winter, they’ll be holding an ace in a winter where aces could be plentiful. The demand may seem weak this winter, but there’s no way it’ll be stronger next winter.

Oh, and on top of that, the ace the Rays are holding will have only one year of club control left. That will lower Price’s value by default, and that’s without even considering all the icky stuff that went on with him in 2013 that we were discussing a moment ago.

For now, it’s looking like the Rays are going to hold on the Price and take their chances. Once again, I get it.

But I don’t know, guys…

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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The Tampa Bay Rays‘ starting rotation has enough talent to take the team to the postseason again in 2014. That is, if you consider credentials including a Cy Young winner, Gold Glove winner, Rookie of the Year and two All-Stars to be postseason-caliber talent.

Not to mention, the combined success of the organization to make the postseason in four of the last six seasons.

Barring a surprise acquisition, the pitchers who will comprise the Rays’ starting rotation in 2014 are already on the team roster. The players who will make up the rotation should not be a surprise, as they have each been in the organization for a while.

In the event of injury, they have three young prospects in Jake Odorizzi, Enry Romero and Alex Colome who are ready to come up and make a spot start. The three pitchers are also available for promotion in the event that the speculated David Price trade ever comes to fruition.

Here is a look at the projected rotation for the Rays in 2014.

All statistics and salary numbers courtesy of baseball-reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Tampa Bay Rays face a daunting task each offseason.

Stay competitive on a tight budget.

Competing in the American League East is a difficult task by itself. When you add in the Rays budget compared to the spending ability of the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox, and the task becomes exponentially more difficult.

Somehow, the Rays and executive VP Andrew Friedman find a way to add enough pieces to field a highly competitive roster. Their five 90-win seasons since 2008, including the last four in a row, is the best in baseball.

The Rays have been business as usual this offseason. They have made some strategic moves to put them in position to make another postseason run in 2014. They have kept their core intact from 2013 while adding depth at catcher and in the bullpen.

Which of these moves will make the most impact?

Here is a power ranking of the Rays offseason moves. The list does not include players signed to a minor league contract.

All statistics and salary numbers courtesy of baseball-reference.com unless otherwise noted. 

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The Tampa Bay Rays have been relatively quiet, as usual, this offseason.

Some teams make big splashes in the offseason, signing expensive high-profile players, while others make ripples. The big splashes garner a lot of attention, are seen and heard from further distances and are projected to make a significant impact immediately.

Small ripples make less noise and attract a smaller national audience. Instead of a single large splash, multiple ripples need to be put together with the intent of building a sustained winner.

For small-market teams on a tight budget, like the Rays, ripples are the way business is conducted.

Grades for the offseason moves are based on the value received for the costs of the transaction. Average players who add depth who are signed to an average contract would be a good move compared to subpar performers signed to a long-term deal.

Here are the grades for the Rays’ offseason moves so far.

All statistics and salary numbers courtesy of baseball-reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Tampa Bay Rays made a big splash on Tuesday as the team added a pair of impact players in Heath Bell and Ryan Hanigan via a three-way trade with Arizona and Cincinnati. 

Though Bell, a three-time All-Star, is the biggest name involved in this deal, Hanigan will prove to be the pivotal name in this transaction. 

Yes, the 33-year-old is coming off a pretty dreadful season offensively as the former Reds catcher batted just .198, which was a career-low by a sizable margin. 

But Hanigan fills a critical void in Tampa Bay as the Rays were clearly looking for an upgrade behind the plate, and the former Rollins College star certainly fits that bill. 

And, after signing a three-year, $10.75 million contract extension earlier this year, Hanigan wasn’t too expensive for the usually conservative Rays.

Until today, the Rays’ best option at catcher was Jose Molina, and though the 38-year-old offers a lot defensively, Hanigan definitely appears to have a much higher ceiling at the plate.

During the last six seasons, Molina’s batted above .250 just once, and given his age, that trend isn’t likely to reverse now.

On the other hand, last season was the first in which Hanigan has failed to eclipse .250 offensively, so assuming 2013 was something of an aberration, he’ll provide a boost for the Rays in that regard.

In addition, even if Joe Maddon opts to use both catchers depending on the opponent, Hanigan‘s presence in the lineup will alleviate at least some of the pressure on James Loney, Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist from the offensive side of the ball. 

The trade brings a much-needed change of scenery for Hanigan, who had effectively been replaced as the Reds’ starting catcher—the club seemed intent on handing the job to Devin Mesoraco, a former first-rounder.

While Mesoraco is far from a proven commodity in the MLB at this stage, the 25-year-old was impressive enough while Hanigan was sidelined twice due to injury in 2013 that the Reds felt comfortable making this deal. 

But Hanigan‘s got the talent to be an impact player for the Rays, who will be looking to build on their postseason appearance this past season, and that’s ultimately why Maddon‘s squad acquired him. 

Just a year ago, Hanigan posted three RBI in four postseason appearances for the Reds, and that’s certainly one reason why Tampa Bay’s confident he’ll bounce back from his injury-plagued 2013 season. 

No, this isn’t the sort of deal that will lift the Rays into the conversation regarding which teams are favored to win the World Series in 2014, but it’s clearly a step in the right direction. 

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Tampa Bay rookie Wil Myers was a fantastic addition to the lineup, adding a capable bat to a middle that badly needed help on offense. But it’s the way he got hot at just the right time late in the season that should secure American League Rookie of the Year honors for the young Rays slugger.

Myers has been a bit of a disappointment in the postseason, but the Rookie of the Year is a regular season award. So setting aside his rookie mistakes and disappointments in the playoffs, it’s clear that he has the raw statistics to command the award without any further justification.

Among players with 350 plate appearances or more, Myers ranks in the top-25 in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. That was a huge boost for a Rays team that badly needed a more consistent bat in the lineup to help out their talented pitching staff.

Looking at the advanced stats, Myers gets an even bigger boost to his candidacy. Myers led all AL Rookies in wOBA and WAR according to Fangraphs. WOBA stands for weighted on base average and is one of the best “catch-all” offensive statistics, as explained by the staff at Fangraphs. WAR is an overall measure of how much value a player adds to a team above a replacement-level player.

But the most important point of Myers’ award candidacy is his improved batting in September. In August, it appeared that Myers hit a rookie wall and that pitchers had caught up with him. But in September, Myers bounced back, and his increased productivity was key for the Rays in a crucial stretch to put the team in position to make the playoffs.

Take a look at one of his more memorable moments from September in the video below, as he crushes a ball deep to left-center field against the Twins.

Myers had at least one hit in 15 games during a late September rally in which the Rays won 14 of 20 games, including wins over every one of their division rivals. This is the kind of clutch hitting that separates him from fellow AL Rookie of the Year contender Jose Iglesias of the Detroit Tigers, who had only two total hits after September 10th.

So despite his postseason missteps, Myers should be awarded the AL Rookie of the Year honors for his fantastic statistics and his clutch hitting when it mattered most.

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The Boston Red Sox will once again host the Tampa Bay Rays from Fenway Park on Saturday, as these rivals clash in Game 2 of the ALDS.

Each team enters with its own clear aspirations. Coming off a 12-2 rout, the Red Sox aim to repeat the process and open a commanding 2-0 series advantage. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, will do everything possible to stop the bleeding now and even up the matchup before the backdrop shifts to Tropicana Field.

Still, all of that is very vague. Aren’t you wondering which circumstances the Rays and Red Sox need to exploit to achieve their desired results?

If so, you came to the right place.

Just like the one we created prior to the opener, here is a brief list of keys that will determine the final score.

*Stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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The Tampa Bay Rays will travel to take on the Cleveland Indians in the 2013 American League Wildcard Game on October 2.

While both teams are evenly matched in many ways, Tampa Bay’s pitching—both their overall rotation and bullpen—will prove to be the difference in the one-game showdown.

The Rays will start Alex Cobb, which bodes well for Tampa considering that his counterpart, Indians pitcher Danny Salazar, began the 2013 season with Cleveland’s AA affiliate.

Considering how well Cobb has pitched this season, the matchup edge is clearly in favor of the Rays.  All Cleveland can hope for is that Salazar is too unknown a product for Tampa Bay to cope with.  That is a lot to ask for considering his lack of experience.

The Indians do boast an impressive lineup, and Cobb will have to do his best to shut them down.  This will not be an easy task, yet considering how well he has pitched down the stretch, Cleveland should have their hands full.

If the Rays are able to maintain a lead heading into the latter innings, they can count on a solid bullpen consisting of guys like Jake McGee, Joel Peralta and Fernando Rodney.  Alex Torres is Tampa Bay’s best middle-relief option having posted a 1.71 ERA in 58 innings.

While Rodney has been a little shaky during the season, the rest of these players are solid in shutting the door over the final three innings.  If Cleveland is trailing going into the seventh, their night could be all but over.

On the other hand, the Indians do not have an established closer, although Joe Smith, who has a 2.29 ERA with 54 strikeouts in 63 innings this season, may be their best option if the game is close.

If pitching wins championships, Tampa Bay has it for Wednesday and Cleveland does not.  Both have respectable lineups, yet the pitching will prove to be the vital factor.

For the Rays, it should be enough to get them beyond this one-game playoff.

All statistics and accolades courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.  Follow him @PeterMcShots on Twitter.

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The Tampa Bay Rays have a tough road ahead.

After 162 games, the Rays finished the season tied with the Texas Rangers for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. A tiebreaker Game 163 was required to answer the question of whether the Rays would even make the postseason in 2013.

Monday night the Rays answered the question by defeating the Rangers 5-2.

The road will only get tougher for the team that has not been home since September 23.

If the Rays make it past the Cleveland Indians in the Wild Card Game they will travel to Boston to face the Red Sox on Friday. Game 1 of the ALDS would be the team’s fourth road game in four cities in a span of six days.

Here are the four biggest questions facing the Rays, other than did the players pack enough laundry for the road trip that keeps going.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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