Kuzul

The plan was for Turner Field to still be filing in nearly 50,000 Braves fans for the postseason. Unfortunately, the lasting images remembered are the cleanup crews picking up debris from angry Atlanta fans after the infield fly call made by Sam Holbrook and Chipper Jones walking off the diamond for the final time. It wasn’t suppose to end that way. 

Nonetheless, decisions have to be made about the 2013 club. Who will replace Chipper at third? Will they re-sign gold-glove center fielder Michael Bourn? Do Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm fit into their plans next season? Will Martin Prado and Jason Heyward receive long-term contracts? Who are free-agent and trade targets?

Those are just a few items on the docket for General Manager Frank Wren this winter. 

The Braves have nearly $30 million to spend after the contracts of Chipper Jones ($14 million), Derek Lowe ($10 million) and Michael Bourn ($6.8 million) are erased from the books. Expect starter Jair Jurrjens, who made $5.5 million in 2012, to be non-tendered or released.

Atlanta is expected to pick up the options of Brian McCann ($12 million), Tim Hudson ($9 million) and Paul Maholm ($6.5 million)—as they should. All three are key components to the team’s success. 

The Braves could re-sign David Ross because of McCann’s shoulder surgery, which will sideline him at least through the majority of spring training.

It may be the perfect time to look into long-term contracts for Martin Prado and outfielder Jason Heyward. 

Prado was arguably the most valuable player for the Braves in 2012 with a .301 average. He also led the league in two-strike base hits (93). He can play a number of positions if needed. He is signed through 2013, and the organization can’t risk losing a high-caliber player like Prado after next season.

Heyward, 23, had a bounce-back 2012 campaign after a sophomore year in which he was plagued by injuries and constant struggles. The 2007 first-round pick set career highs in runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases and slugging percentage. He was spectacular in right field, as he made some big catches for Atlanta in key moments throughout the season. It will be cheaper to get a long-term deal done rather than going through the eventual arbitration process.

The starting rotation is likely to be set with Kris Medlen, Tommy Hanson, Mike Minor, Hudson and Maholm. Brandon Beachy is on track to re-join the rotation from “Tommy John” elbow surgery around the All-Star break. 

The two biggest decisions facing the Braves in the off-season are at third and the outfield. The likelihood is Prado finds a home at third. The Braves have played the 28-year-old at multiple positions, primarily left field since the acquisition of Dan Uggla before the 2011 season.

The outfield could go a number of different ways: re-sign Michael Bourn and bring back Jose Constanza to play left or let Bourn go and find two cheaper options to play left and center.

Bourn is expected to net around $15 million a year from a club in the free-agent market. The Braves can afford it, but it wouldn’t be fiscally responsible. There are cheaper targets out there via free-agency or the trade market. 

B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino, Angel Pagan and Cody Ross are all potential free-agent targets for Atlanta. None will command the level of money that Bourn will this winter. 

Upton, 28, is looking for a fresh start after spending his entire career to this point with the Tampa Bay Rays. The center fielder hit 28 homers in 2012. The level of consistency may be a concern for him. Other than 2007 when he hit .300, the former first-round selection has a career average of .248.

Victorino, whom the Braves know well from his days in Philadelphia, could be an option, as the Dodgers may not see him as a fit with Carl Crawford’s eventual return from Tommy John surgery. The 31-year-old has a career .333 average in 60 games at Turner Field, which is tops among national league ballparks.

Pagan is familiar with the N.L. East from his days with the New York Mets. The outfielder hit .288 with eight homers and 56 RBI in 154 games with the Giants. He would be a cheaper option for Atlanta, as he would command in the area of $5 million after making $4.85 million in 2012. Pagan hit .290 in 80 games as the San Francisco lead-off hitter this season.

Braves fans remember how Ross tormented them during the 2010 postseason. A big game-tying home run and a go-ahead single lifted the Giants to a 3-2 game four victory in Bobby Cox’s last game as Atlanta’s manager. The 31-year-old Ross played well in his second stint in the A.L, as he batted .267 with 22 home runs and 81 RBI in 130 games with the Boston Red Sox. Ross has a career .300 average at Turner Field in 31 games and would see regular time as the left fielder. 

Josh Willingham is a perfect fit for the Braves via the trade market if they wish to pursue it. The 33-year-old, who is owed $14 million through 2014, hit 35 home runs and 110 RBI for the Minnesota Twins in 2012. The $7 million a year price tag combined with the level of production annually should garner the Braves’ interest. 

The bullpen should be a strength for the Braves again in 2013 with the return of closer Craig Kimbrel, who has saved 88 games in his two full seasons in the majors. Top left-handed setup man Eric O’Flaherty will be entering into his final arbitration year and could make upwards of $4 million.

Christian Martinez, Luis Avilan, Jonny Venters, Cory Gearrin, Chad Durbin and Peter Moylan are all expected to be in the mix for spots again in 2013. 

Important decisions will be made this winter, but the Braves should be at or near the top of the division standings again next season. 

Follow me on Twitter @Andrew_Vig

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Jair Jurrjens isn’t getting any better. Since suffering a knee injury in the second half of the 2011 season, Jurrjens has looked uncomfortable on the mound has has vastly underperformed for an Atlanta Braves team that needed him to be one of the consistent starters in their rotation.

So far in 2012, Jurrjens has four starts and a 9.37 ERA which is the highest of any Braves pitcher. He has allowed 30 hits and 17 earned runs in 16.1 innings, and his pitches have looked flat with no movement to deceive hitters. Tim Hudson is due to come up from triple-A Gwinnett within a few weeks, and the starting rotation needed to be fiddled with to find room for him. 

The Braves had hinted that they would be sending Randall Delgado, a young Braves right-hander who has two wins in three starts this year. Delgado, although his ERA is 5.74, has looked good in his three starts this season, and he had only started one Major League ballgame before 2012, so he is still learning on the job.

The Braves have provided plenty of run support to Delgado, and every other starter for that matter, and he has been able to stunt the opposing lineup long enough for the Braves to build up an insurmountable number of runs against the opposing pitcher. 

Delgado has certainly looked more under control than Jurrjens this season, and that is probably the main reason that the Braves front office decided to send Jurrjens down to triple-A Gwinnett after another lackluster start in Los Angeles where he gave up nine hits and five earned runs in three innings of work.

Jurrjens was in Cy Young form in the first half of 2011, and was selected to the first All Star game of his career. He ended up recording 13 wins for the Braves in 2011 and, despite a knee injury that landed him on the disabled list and a start in Gwinnett, he was expected to be one of the Braves’ solid arms to rely on this season. 

Jurrjens has been dependable in 2012, but the Braves can only depend on him for losses and a huge deficit to overcome within the first four innings of games.

The fact is, Delgado has been far more consistent than Jurrjens, and Delgado has much more confidence in the rotation right now. It makes sense for the Braves to invest starts and instruction on Delgado over Jurrjens for the moment because Delgado has been the more reliable arm. If he can learn how to pitch in certain situations and start putting up some one-two-three innings, he can be a solid starter in the Braves’ rotation.

Jurrjens will look to regain his Cy Young form in the minors for the time being. Whether the Braves will look to groom him for a trade later in the year is still not clear, but as of right now, the rotation is better off with Jurrjens in Gwinnett. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Atlanta Braves are currently in second place in the NL East, which I find very impressive, yet they remain five games behind the Philadelphia Phillies. 

I know the Braves are quite capable of overtaking their first-place rivals—they have only a few obstacles that are keeping them from doing so.

In this slideshow, I will explain what these obstacles are and how the Braves can possibly overcome them.

Begin Slideshow

This article will identify the 10 best late-round fantasy draft steals.

When I identify these players, I will make reference to the draft I participated in with Yahoo! in terms of when these players were drafted.  I will also examine where Yahoo! has ranked said players overall and how that affects where they are taken in the draft.  I will also examine why these players would pay huge dividends for any fantasy team.

However, you should note that I am not trying to find you the next Jose Bautista, I am merely giving you elite players that you can wait until later to grab in the draft and be considered a genius.  So, without further ado…Let us begin!

Begin Slideshow

Before the start of the season, I wanted to see which pitchers statistically had the best fastballs, curveballs, sliders, cutters, changeups and splitters of the 2010 season.

Here are a look at the top fastballs of the 2010 season. A few notes:

The Pitch Value data was created by Fangraphs.com. I will be using the statistic, wFA, which denotes the runs above average for a particular pitch—in this case a fastball.  

The “wFA” stat benefits starting pitchers and pitchers who throw a certain pitch more often. Because the more often you throw a pitch, the better the chances are of it being successful.

Sometimes, PITCH/FX does not sort pitches into the right category. For example, Brandon Morrow’s splitter was categorized as a fastball.

Both two and four-seam fastballs are lumped together.

Begin Slideshow

For a sky copter sky plane traffic report on the outlook for the 2011 Bravos, let’s go to Captain Herb Emory.

How’s the season looking Captain Herb?

Captain Herb – Well, it looks like the Braves will be in contention for a NL Pennant in 2011. I like the addition of Uggla and no glaring losses. Freddie Gonzalez is a solid skipper who will take over for the great Bobby Cox. I wish we had one more lefties in the starting rotation for those series against the lefty dominated lineup of the Phillies. The Phillies will be tough to beat with that starting rotation.

Speaking of rotation, when was the last time you had your tires rotated? Go to Big 10 Tires to get them rotated today. How is the outfield looking Kim McCarthy?

Kim McCarthy – Well Captain Herb, the Braves outfield in 2011 has potential to be very good, but with question marks. Look for the J-Hey kid to have an All-Star year in right field. Also, look for McClouth to bounce back and have a solid year in center. Prado gets a look in left after a break out year in 2010 and Jordan Schafer adds flexibility.

Speaking of flexibility, Auto Zone has flexible hours to meet all of your automotive needs, visit your local Auto Zone today. How about that infield this year Mark Arum?

Mark Arum – Thanks Kim. The infield for the Braves has question marks this year. Uggla is a big addition that will bring much needed power to the lineup. Freddy Freeman takes over at first and has a lot of potential, but will have his ups and downs in his rookie season. Gonzalez is solid at shortstop and McCann is an All-Star catcher and may be the best in the game. Big question at third is how long until Chipper pulls a hammy or a groin? 

Speaking of hammy, be sure to visit Subway today for one of their delicious foot long ham sandwiches. Now for the pitching, let’s go to Doug “Fireball” Turnbull.

Doug “Fireball” Turnbull – Uh-oh, we now have a code red in the bullpen. Billy Wagner is retired and it looks like the Braves are counting on Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters as closers. Your backup route is to go with veterans Scott Linebrink and George Sherrill. 

The starting rotation has the potential to be one of the best. Huddy, D-Lowe, JJ and Tommy Hanson are solid but all righties. I would like to see Mike Minor have a break out year and become that much needed lefty in the starting rotation, especially in those head to head series with the Philadelphia. 

Speaking of Philadelphia, what a great movie starring Tom Hanks. Be sure to visit a Red Box movie rental and pick up a copy of Philadelphia or another great movie today. Back to you Captain Herb.

Captain Herb – That is a look at your sky copter sky plane view of the 2011 Atlanta Braves. Stay tuned for more and see what Kirk Mellish has for the Braves outlook on his Mellish Meter!

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It was a magical season for Tim Hudson, who had pitched just 42.1 innings in 2009 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2008.  His numbers were fine in that span (3.61 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), but no one knew exactly what to expect in his first full year back.  Hudson performed better than anyone could’ve expected, posting the following line:

17 Wins
228.2 Innings
2.83 ERA
1.15 WHIP
139 Strikeouts (5.47 K/9)
74 Walks (2.91 BB/9)
.250 BABIP

The question for fantasy owners is if he has any chance of replicating the numbers?  The first big strike against him is his strikeout rate.  He has a career K/9 of 6.06 and the only time he has actually been above 5.81 since 2003 was in ’09 when he posted a 6.38 K/9.  Of course, that was over a minimal sample size so it can be taken with a grain of salt.

Without the strikeout rate, there’s a big risk that the other numbers come tumbling down as well.  His BABIP is unbelievable.  He has a career rate of .286 and routinely posted a mark between .290 and .307 prior to the injury. 

Yes, he has always had great control which he was almost able to replicate despite missing significant time (2.91 BB/9 vs. 2.78 for his career).  However, a regression in BABIP is going to mean a big fall in his WHIP.  For his career he has posted a 1.25 WHIP and seeing him perform significantly worse than that would not be surprising.

As for the ERA, he benefitted from an 81.2 percent strand rate.  For his career he is at 74.2 percent.  In 2010, he was one of only two pitchers who qualified for the ERA title to post a strand rate better than 80 percent (the other two were Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay).  It should be a foregone conclusion that he is going to regress there as well.

You put it all together and get the following projection:

200.0 IP, 15 W, 3.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 120 K (5.40 K/9), 63 BB (2.84 BB/9)

Those are fine numbers overall, but without the strikeouts he becomes a barely passable pitcher for fantasy owners.  Unless he is going to post an elite ERA or WHIP (or both), those in shallower formats can basically forget about him without the strikeout rate.  Considering, from his track record, we know that’s not going to happen, it’s easy to ignore Hudson on draft day.

What are your thoughts on Hudson?  Is he someone that is usable?  How do you think he’s going to produce?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It is the goal of every professional athlete to leave their respective sport on their own terms, riding off into the sunset on the heels of a championship season filled with praise and accolades. This was not the case for Billy Wagner, as his 16-year baseball career ended in pain and frustration last October as his Atlanta Braves fell to the San Francisco Giants in the 2010 MLB playoffs.

Wagner attempted to play through a painful hip injury that plagued him over the latter part of his career, but was unable to continue and his Braves failed to stay afloat in the playoffs.

The player who may be asked to fill Wagner’s shoes is Craig Kimbrel, a powerful young reliever who embodies similar stuff to his predecessor, including a high 90s fastball and a knee buckling slider. Drafted straight out of high school in the third round of the 2008 amateur draft, Kimbrel quickly made his way to the majors primarily due to his blazing fastball and his ability to strike batters out late in games.

He made his debut on May 7, and went on to pitch in 21 games for the Braves, posting an impressive 0.44 ERA with an amazing 17.4 K/9 ratio. He was a vital piece of a Braves bullpen that provided excellent support for Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe.

The two biggest knocks against Kimbrel are his high walk rate and youth, two things that are typically red flags for closers. If given the closer role, how well will the 22-year old pitcher handle the pressure? Will he continue to mow down opponents while raking up strikeouts at an amazing rate, or will he crumble under the pressure, forcing Fredi Gonzalez to demote him to a set-up role?

Only time will tell. 

I recently published an article titled A Beginner’s Guide to Fantasy Baseball in which I shared a few strategies for novice fantasy players. One topic that I touched on is the theory that it is okay to wait on closers in the draft, as there is value late and teams change closers quite regularly throughout the season. In the case of Craig Kimbrel, I recommend targeting him late in your draft as a sleeper pick. 

The casual player may not be aware of Wagner’s retirement, opening the door for educated fantasy players to cash in on a potential diamond in the rough. With that said, I do not advise drafting Kimbrel as a number-one or number-two closer, as there are too many unknowns for a fantasy owner to rely on such a young and unproven player.

This article was originally published on www.kramericasports.com, the home of free fantasy news, rankings, and advice.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Rumors rumors everywhere.  Where will Cliff Lee land?  The Yankees, duh.

It seems every off season that pitching is the biggest issue for those teams looking to make a big splash in free agency.

The Atlanta Braves are looking at a 2011 season that very much like 2010 will include much depth at starting pitching.  Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, Jorge de la Rosa, Javier Vazquez, and Chris Young are just a few names that come quite popular upon the signing of Cliff Lee if and when Brian Cashman signs him to come to the Bronx.

The biggest need of the offseason was fulfilled with the trade for Dan Uggla on November 16, 2010.  His right-handed power will bring a much needed boost to the Atlanta Braves offense.

It is safe to say, I don’t see the Braves shopping for any above average starting pitching this offseason.  If anything, the Braves could consider adding a veteran arm to their bullpen.

Let’s take a quick peek at what the Braves have to look forward to in 2011 when it comes to starting pitching.

1.) Tim Hudson (Prediction: 210 IP, 18-9, 2.95 ERA, 135 Ks)

What can you say about Tim Hudson in 2010?  17-9 with an ERA of 2.83.  He does walk a batter from time to time but he held hitters to a .229 BAA last season.

What was the most significant part of 2010 for “Huddy”?  228.2 IP.  Not bad for a guy that just came back from major surgery the season before.  You could certainly make a case that Tim Hudson is as good as ever right now and that his only season better than 2010 was when he pitched for the A’s back in 2003.  He may very well be in the Cy Young race yet again in 2011.

2.) Tommy Hanson (Prediction: 215 IP, 15-10, 3.10 ERA, 200 Ks)

2011 will very much be a breakout season for the young Tommy Hanson.  Next season Tommy Hanson will be listed first and Hudson second.

Hanson has a knack for getting in trouble and blowing up, but he has also pitched his way out of trouble several times.  This is typical for a young star.  I don’t think he will compete for the Cy Young just yet in 2011, but in 2012 he will be running the show against the big boys.

2010 showed that Hanson has good control when he is on his game.  His K to BB ratio was right around 3:1.  With a little more run support, I think Hanson would have been able to log a few more innings this season and get very close to 200 Ks.

3.) Derek Lowe (Prediction: 190 IP, 15-12, 4.10 ERA, 125 Ks)

If Derek had only been as dominant all years as he was in the month of September he would have been an easy pick for the Cy Young.  In the final month of the season Lowe went 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA.  With a little run support in the playoffs, Lowe could have pitched the Braves to a NLCS if he had just had a little more run support from an injury plagued lineup.

I think Lowe has reached his peak, but feel he will give the Braves one more good season.  His 2010 numbers aren’t out of reach, but I’ll suggest he will be slightly above average and more consistent this season.

4.) Jair Jurrjens (Prediction: 185 IP, 14-10, 3.80 ERA, 140 Ks)

If I were a betting man (which I’m not) I would suggest J.J. will be more similar to his 2008 and 2009 self in 2011.  Between his injuries (June through August) JJ carried a 6-1 record with a 3.75 ERA in 12 starts.  By September, Jurrjens was already beginning to feel the effects of his injuries.  I feel like this section of the season more clearly portrays what a healthy Jair Jurrjens will pitch like in 2011.  One day, Jair will be one of the most recognized pitchers in the league alongside Tommy Hanson.

5.) Mike Minor (Prediction: 165 IP, 9-13, 4.80 ERA, 155 Ks)

Mike Minor will be the man until Kris Medlen comes back from injury.  If Minor pitches well enough, Medlen upon his return could be used as a valuable bullpen arm in August or September of 2011.  Brandon Beachy may give Minor a run for his money in spring training, but the former Vanderbilt stand-out was drafted to be a Braves pitcher for several years to come.  My prediction will be based on a full season.  This is subject to change depending on what Fredi Gonzalez does with Medlen when he returns.

Aside from the five starters above, others will likely see some time in the rotation with a spot-start here and there.  Brandon Beachy as mentioned will give Minor some competition but will likely be used as a long reliever or a spot starter.  If he isn’t traded, Kenshin Kawakami may see some time on the big club if he can regain some form at AA early in the season.

What I believe most fans hope for is a late season return by Kris Medlen.  Medlen was a great benefit to the team last season and would be an excellent late season addition to what is expected to be a competitive Braves squad in 2011.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Today, the Baseball Writers Association of America will unveil its choice for the 2010 National League Cy Young Award, making this the first time in the more than three weeks since Bleacher Report’s featured columnists began to release the results of our end-of-season awards poll that Major League Baseball has had the decency to coordinate their announcement with ours.

Yesterday, we did the AL Cy Young, they did the Rookies of the Year. Last week, they announced the Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves, a full fortnight after we did. And while we’ll be all done by Thursday, they’re going to drag their results out until just before Thanksgiving.

But I digress—here are the results of B/R’s NL Cy Young vote.

As always, the top five vote-getters are featured here, with commentary from the writers who chose them. The full list of results is at the end.

So read on, see how we did, and be sure to tell us what we got wrong!

Begin Slideshow