Kuzul

The Jay-Hey Kid came through again tonight.  Jason Heyward, a favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year, hit a double, moved to third on a Chipper Jones sac fly, and stole home on the next pitch.  He’s stealing more than bases these days, however.  He is stealing the thunder right out of the Phillies and Mets.

It couldn’t come at a better time.

The Braves, atop the NL East and poised to take their first divisional crown since 2002, are cruising with the help of Heyward, 2010 All-Star Game MVP Brian McCann, Troy Glaus, Martin Prado, Matt Diaz, and the crew.  The Braves possess the depth and talent likened to many of the pennant winners in the 1990s.

With a rotation that features Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and a surprise in Kris Medlen, the pitching is as solid as the days of Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz-Mercker-Avery.  The bullpen is good, too, with guys like Peter Moylan, Eric O’Flaherty, Johnny Venters, and, of course, the venerable Billy Wagner.

Many of those names made impacts tonight.

Tim Hudson pitched 7 2/3 innings of one run, seven hit baseball, striking out seven in the process and walking just one.  Out of 96 pitches, 63 were strikes, including 18 first-pitch strikes.  Venters struck out Adam Dunn to end the eighth.  Wagner, as is often the case, pitched a perfect ninth to pick up his 23rd save on the year.

Prado continued to flourish in his leadoff role, going 3-5 with a double and two runs scored.  Chipper was 1-4 with 2 RBI.  Brian McCann also stole a base, his fourth of the year. 

The Braves improved their record to 58-42, 16 games above .500 and 3.5 games ahead of Philadelphia.  Philadelphia has been hot of late, riding a seven-game win streak.  Atlanta is fighting to stay atop the NL East, and they are getting contributions from everyone.

This Atlanta team is going to be seeing October for the first time in nearly 10 years, and I couldn’t be happier.

NOTES

• Stephen Strasburg was scratched from what was to be his 10th ML start with shoulder soreness.  He isn’t expected to miss any time and should make his next start.

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Tim Hudson threw seven strong for the Atlanta Braves as they took back the National League’s best record in their series win over the San Diego Padres.

At the beginning of the season, it was thought by many that the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals would finish one-two in the National League. At this point of the season, the top two doesn’t currently consist of either of those teams.

Instead, the very surprising Padres and the always-contending Braves held down those spots entering their matchup in the finale of their three-game set at Turner Field.

Atlanta was 55-39, a half-game back of the National League and division-leading Padres, looking not only to take the lead atop the league, but take the series as well.

They had the right pitcher on the mound to accomplish these two feats, Tim Hudson, their ace of five-plus seasons who carried a 9-5 record and a sub-3.00 ERA into his start.

And, not surprisingly, he delivered, feasting on the Padres’ weakness.

What is San Diego’s weakness? Their offense is woefully inconsistent, and far too often, completely nonexistent. How can a team manage 55 wins while ranked 21st in runs scored and 25th in batting average? Their situational hitting has been superb and their pitching has been even better.

Behind the pop out of Adrian Gonzalez‘s bat, time and time again they sneaked by scoring three to four runs per game thanks to a rotation and bullpen that has a combined 3.30 ERA, which is good for second in the majors.

Solid pitching and good enough hitting took a night off, as Hudson baffled the Padres inning after inning, while Clayton Richard struggled out of the gate. Newly acquired shortstop Alex Gonzalez was behind Richard’s struggles.

After a sacrifice fly by Troy Glaus and timely two-out hitting that kept the inning alive, Gonzalez singled in a run in the first—his first run as a Brave to begin what would be a brilliant night at the plate.

Richard had to face him more times than he would have liked. Atlanta scored in the second, so with Hudson cruising along, Gonzalez’s damage in the third went a long way toward sealing a victory. Left fielder Matt Diaz continued his torrid July, lining a single in front of Gonzalez.

The former member of the Florida Marlins, Cincinnati Reds, Boston Red Sox, and Toronto Blue Jays—who entered the game with 17 homers, 50 RBI, and 26 doubles—socked a Richard slider deep over the head of center fielder and former Eugene Emeralds spark plug Luis Durango for his 27th two-bagger to score Diaz, notching his 52nd RBI and second with the team.

Hudson took this four-run cushion and breezed through San Diego’s order. He tossed a perfect fourth inning against the heart of the order that included Gonzalez, who leads the team in average, homers, hits, RBI, and on-base percentage.

Gonzalez succumbed on the 10th pitch of his plate appearance to begin the inning, getting severely under Hudson’s very effective changeup to become the fourth of eventually six straight retired by the 35-year-old veteran right-hander.

After mowing down the sixth of these Padres, Wil Venable, to end the fourth, Hudson ran into the lone trouble of his outing to begin the fifth.

Scott Hairston lined a single to center and Everth Cabrera was nailed in the foot by an errant slider, putting two runners on with nobody out. He made this hiccup very minor, getting out of the jam unscathed quite easily.

Durango, who entered the appearance with a .487 batting average in 29 Major League at-bats, grounded into a swiftly-turned double play by Gonzalez and second baseman Martin Prado to squash the threat completely thwarted by a groundout by Richard.

Hudson went on to throw two more scoreless innings, lowering his already sparkling ERA to 2.47 while surrendering just four hits and a walk. If the four runs he received while he was on the mound weren’t enough, his offense made sure his 10th win would be the result of his gem.

An offense that ranks 25th this month in runs scored took its anger out on 24-year-old, 6’6″, rookie right-hander Ryan Webb, whose July struggles continued in allowing four runs to cross.

In doing so, Webb allowed four hits, walked two Braves—one intentionally—and hit a batter. Not surprisingly, Gonzalez was right in the middle of the offensive outburst, turning a one-out walk issued to Diaz into a very successful inning that did in the already-cooked Padres.

His frozen-rope single to left on a straight 94-mph fastball was followed by a David Ross RBI-double, a curveball that plunked Eric Hinske on an 0-2 count to force in a run, and then a pair of two-out RBI singles by future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones and budding star Jason Heyward.

Hudson had been fairly economical, and though his pitch count was just into triple-digits, he probably could have gone out there for the eighth.

But there was no need.

The Braves had their National League-leading 56th win in the bag and, once two relievers finished off the four-hit shutout, a seven-game advantage over the New York Mets in the division.

With the way the team is put together—a very capable mix of veterans and youth on the mound and at the plate—Atlanta should hold onto their lead over the Padres and Mets for the long haul.

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On getaway day, the Braves concluded their first post All-Star break homestand with an 8-0 shutout of the San Diego Padres at Turner Field. With Tim Hudson leading the way on the mound, and Alex Gonzalez’s four-hit day leading an offense that had six different players drive in runs—this was the epitome of a Braves quality win.

Atlanta currently owns a 7.0 game lead in the NL East, with an NL-best 56-39 record, as both Philadelphia and New York look up at the Braves with identical 49-46 records.

With the Braves about to embark on their second nine-plus game road trip of the season, let’s examine the upcoming road stretch, as well as the remaining schedule in the second half.

The Braves upcoming road trip will not log as many miles as the Arizona-Los Angeles-Minnesota trip in June that ended with four-game splits out west, and winning two of three at Target Field.

Currently the Braves are 34-13 in 47 home games (34 games remaining), and 22-26 in 48 road games (33 games remaining).

JULY 23-25 @ FLORIDA

While the Marlins are playing some good baseball right now, the Braves will be fortunate to miss their two best starters—Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco.

Friday, July 23 : Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39 ERA) hasn’t faced the Marlins yet this season, and will be opposed by Alex Sanabia (1-1, 2.12 ERA). Lowe hasn’t fared well against the Marlins in the past, going 1-2 with an ERA of 5.71 in six starts since the beginning of 2007.

Sanabia, he of the two career starts and 19 major league innings under his belt, has a good ERA, but his other statistics aren’t quite as impressive. He’s never made it out of the sixth inning and gives up his fair share of baserunners. The Braves have been hit or miss with pitchers they’ve seen for the first time.

Saturday, July 24: Kris Medlen (6-2, 3.31 ERA) returns to his slot in the rotation to face off against Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 3.62 ERA). This will be the third time the Braves have faced Sanchez, who is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA against Atlanta this year. Sanchez has struggled in July, with an ERA over 6.00.

Medlen won his only start against Florida, giving up one run in 6.1 innings on July 1. Medlen’s only two losses came as a reliever. However, as a starter, he’s 6-0, and the Braves have only lost one of his 11 starts.

Sunday, July 25 : Jair Jurrjens (3-3, 4.25 ERA) pitches the finale Sunday afternoon against Chris Volstad (4-8, 4.78). Jurrjens has been fantastic in his four starts since returning from the DL (3-0, 2.21 ERA) and carries a 3-1 career record against the Fish in six starts. Volstad hasn’t had a great year, and carries a 1-2 record in four starts against the Braves since the beginning of 2007 into the Sunday matinee.

Prediction: The Braves have won two of three in both previous series with the Marlins this season—and it should continue. If Lowe pitches well on Friday, or the Braves can jump on the rookie, Jurrjens might have a chance to sweep the Fish away. Best bet for a victory is Jurrjens in the finale.

JULY 27-29 @ WASHINGTON

Tuesday, July 27 : I wouldn’t be surprised to see MLB Network pick up this game matching Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12 ERA) and Stephen Strasburg (5-2, 2.32 ERA).

Hanson’s owns a 3-0 career against the Nationals, and would be even better if the bullpen hadn’t blown a win for him last year. He beat Washington in early May in his only start against them this year.

Strasburg pitched well against the Braves but wound up on the losing end of a 5-0 shutout on June 28. I know this is nitpicking, but the stud rookie has come down to earth and has averaged less than 6.0 IP per start since June 23.

If both pitchers are on, we could see a lot of hitters blown away on both sides by high 90s fastballs and wicked breaking balls.

Wednesday, July 28 : Tim Hudson (10-5, 2.47 ERA) hopes to follow his scoreless outing against the Padres and out-duel Livan Hernandez (7-6, 3.12 ERA). Hernandez beat the Braves when the two teams played in May, but has a 6.29 ERA against Atlanta over the previous three seasons.

Hudson was the winner on June 28, pitching seven shutout innings to beat Strasburg and the Nats. He got a no decision against Washington in a 3-2 loss in early May, giving up two runs in seven innings. He’s been a Nat killer, going 8-0 with an ERA of about 1.50 since the beginning of 2007.

Thursday, July 29:   Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39 ERA) pitches the finale in Washington facing Craig Stammen (2-4, 5.50 ERA). These two faced off at Turner Field three weeks ago, as the Nationals beat Lowe and the Braves 7-2.

This month, Stammen has generally struggled, going 0-2 with an ERA over 7.00. Lowe is 4-5 against the Nats since the beginning of 2007, with a respectable 3.76 ERA.

Prediction: The Braves lost two out of three at Nationals Park in early May, and won two of three at Turner Field in late June. The way the Braves and Nats are playing now are more like they were in late June, rather than early May, when the Braves weren’t hitting, and the Nats were playing quite well. Chalk up another two out of three to make it a 4-2 record so far on the road trip. Best bet – Hudson dominates Washington, and should continue to do so on Wednesday.

JULY 30 – AUGUST 1 @ CINCINNATI

Friday, July 30 : Kris Medlen (6-2, 3.19 ERA) faces ace Johnny Cueto (9-2, 3.39 ERA) to open the series in the Queen City. 

Cueto is 1-0 in two career starts against the Braves, with the Reds winning close games both times, beating Atlanta in 2008, and getting a no-decision in a 4-2 win at Turner Field in September 2009. 

Saturday, July 31 : The trade deadline comes and goes as Jair Jurrjens hopes to continue his successful string of starts since being activated to take on Mike Leake (7-1, 3.45 ERA).

Leake got a no-decision in the game the Braves made the 9th inning comeback. He allowed three runs (one earned) in six innings before giving way to a bullpen that eventually imploded.

Jurrjens has had some bad luck against the Reds in the past. He struggles against them in 2008, but left with the lead before the Braves bullpen gave up the lead and eventually the win. In his two 2009 starts against the Reds, he took the losses both times. One game he left down 1-0 after 2.0 innings because of a rain delay, and the other, was a 3-1 loss in September, where he tossed seven solid innings, but got no run support.

Sunday, August 1 : Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12 ERA) hopes to make up for his last start against the Reds as he closes out the series and the road trip to face Bronson Arroyo (10-5, 4.25 ERA) in the finale.

At the outset, this has all the making of a Reds blowout win, but Hanson was sick that day, pitched horribly, and the Braves still won on Brooks Conrad’s pinch-hit, walk-off grand slam. In his other career start against the Reds, Hanson pitched six innings of three-hit shutout baseball to earn the win.

Arroyo seems to be either Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde when facing the Braves. Since he joined the Reds before the 2006 season, Arroyo is 3-3 in seven starts against Atlanta, with a 7.48 ERA.

In his three wins, Arroyo is 3-0, with a 1.39 ERA in 19.1 IP.

In the other four starts, Arroyo is 0-3 with a 14.29 ERA in 17.0 IP.

Prediction: The Braves showed the late inning magic in sweeping a two-game set from the Reds in May. The Reds have struggled some lately. Hanson shakes off his last start against the Reds, and Jurrjens finally gets the best of Cincinnati as the Braves take two out of three. Best bet is the Braves getting to Arroyo early on Sunday, to finish a nine-game road trip with a 6-3 record, and returning home twenty games over .500 at 62-42.

AFTER THE ROAD TRIP. . .

Remaining Road Schedule

The Braves will return home from Cincinnati to host the Mets and Giants. The Braves have four road trips remaining (24 games) and they break down as follows

August:

Three games: Three @ Houston (3-0 at Turner Field)

Six games: Three @ Chicago Cubs (2-1 at Turner Field)
                Three @ Colorado (2-1 at Turner Field)

September :

Six games: Three @ Florida (4-2 this season)
               Three @ Pittsburgh (5-1 this season)

Nine games: Three @ NY Mets (3-5 this season, 1-4 at Citi Field)
                 Three @ Philadelphia (7-5 this season, 3-3 at Citizens Bank Park)
                 Three @ Washington (3-3 this season, 1-2 at Nationals Park)

Analysis:

The Braves have a combined 10-2 record against the NL central teams they still have to face on the road this year. With the Cubs in turmoil, and Houston and Pittsburgh being the doormats of the division, I don’t expect much of a change.

Citi Field has not been the Braves’ friend this year, but two of those losses the Braves gave away during their nine-game losing streak in April. They’ve played the Mets better since. Philly could be shutting it down if they’re too far out, or they could have recharged with a healthy Chase Utley, Jamie Moyer, Placido Polanco, and perhaps a starting pitcher addition.

The best series to watch for on the road would be at Colorado in mid-August, and at Philadelphia in mid-September.

Prediction: Braves win 13 or 14 out of their final 24 road games. Their final road record would be 41-40 give or take a game.

Remaining Home Schedule

Starting with the series against the Mets in early August the Braves play 34 of their final 58 games at home, where they’ve won at a .723 clip – the best in the majors this season.

August:

Seven games: Three vs NY Mets (1-1 at Turner Field, 3-5 overall)
                    Four vs San Francisco (1-2 at AT&T Park in April)

Seven games: Four vs LA Dodgers (2-2 at Dodgers Stadium)
                   Three vs Washington (2-1 at Turner Field, 3-3 overall)

Seven games: Three vs Florida (2-1 at Turner Field, 4-2 overall)
                    Four vs NY Mets

September:

Seven games: Four vs St. Louis (0-4 at Busch Stadium in April)
                    Three vs Washington

Six games: Three vs Florida
               Three vs Philadelphia (4-2 at Turner Field, 7-5 overall)

Analysis:

The Braves home schedule is tougher than their road schedule the rest of the season, just from a team record standpoint. They’ve played the Mets, Phillies, and Giants much better at home than on the road in the recent past and that will likely continue. However, the Braves’ final home series vs Philadelphia may not matter too much, as it’s the last weekend of the season.

The Mets aren’t a good road team, and have showed it lately by going 1-6 on a west coast road trip to Arizona and San Francisco, and should be 0-7 if Phil Cuzzi doesn’t miss the call at home on Sunday. I expect the Braves I see the Braves winning 5 of the 7 remaining home game with the Mets, and four of the six remaining with both Florida and Washington.

Depending on the pitching match-ups, a split might not be a bad thing against the Cardinals, especially if Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia and (maybe Oswalt) pitch in that series. The Dodgers are a better home team and the Braves winning 3 in that series is not out of the question. In past years, the series between the Giants and Braves have generally favored the home team, regardless of their records.

Prediction: The Braves win 22 or 23 of their final 34 home games. Their final home record will be 56-25, give or take a game.

Adding it up. The Braves are on pace to finish with a record of 97-65, their best since the 2003 season when they won 100 games for the second straight year. That should give them at least one home-field series as they return to the playoffs for the first time since 2005.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Originally posted at The Bravesologist

Lineup: 

The Braves lineup is markedly better than most projected to start the season. Certain players have stepped their game up tremendously. The offense has prospered despite a lack of production from others. Baseball is an odd sport. Some years players produce numbers far better than expected while others perform poorly and seemed destined to be non-tendered. Here is the report card for the lineup.

Martin Prado: A

.325 AVG, .367 OBP, .484 SLG, .851 OPS, 10 HR, 25 2B, 2 3B, 16.8 bRAA, 115 wOBA+

Martin has had an unbelievable first half this season and has been one of thebiggest keys to the Braves great first half. Prado’s ability to get hit after hit and put himself into scoring position over 35 times has ignited this offense. What’s funny about it all is that Prado has really just done what he has always done. His wOBA+ for the past three years is 112, 115, and 112, right along pace with his current 115 mark.

Jason Heyward: A-

.251 AVG, .366 OBP, .455 SLG, .821 OPS, 11 HR, 13 2B, 3 3B, 16.7 bRAA, 120 wOBA+

Before Jason’s thumb injury he was a legitimate MVP candidate. His OPS was near the top of the league and his memorable late inning hits were crucial as the Braves moved up in the standings. His plate patience has been incredible, walking 42 times in just 303 plate appearances. He has an isoOBP over .100 and an isoSLG over .200. I fully expect Heyward to bounce back to form once he returns from the DL.

Troy Glaus: B+

.254 AVG, .361 OBP, .441 SLG, .802 OPS, 14 HR, 13 2B, 12.1 bRAA, 112 wOBA+

Glaus has been the power right-handed bat that many were hoping to get in trade this offseason. With Javier Vazquez or Derek Lowe being expendable, a big right-handed left fielder or first basemen seemed attainable. The Braves ended up trading Vazquez for Melky Cabrera and prospects, but the Glaus signing has turned into one of the best value picks of the offseason across the Majors. He has had some big clutch hits including a game-tying home run against the Philadelphia Phillies and a walk-off home run against the Kansas City Royals. Glaus has stayed relatively healthy as well, which was one of the big questions heading into the season.

Brian McCann: B

.267 AVG, .380 OBP, .447 SLG, .827 OPS, 10 HR, 16 2B, 10.9 bRAA, 113 wOBA+

Brian has had better seasons in the past, but he has increased his patience and is continuing to be one of the top hitting catchers in all of baseball. He is only 15 walks away from surpassing his career high as he has 42 already this season. McCann and Glaus have made for a great cleanup platoon and have been fortunate to have guys like Prado, Heyward, and Chipper Jones getting on base regularly in front of them.

Chipper Jones: C+

.252 AVG, .378 OBP, .393 SLG, .771 OPS, 6 HR, 16 2B, 4.8 bRAA, 106 wOBA+

Chipper has had an odd couple of months at the plate. The first two months he was getting on base at a very high rate but not hitting for much power. Over the past month and a half, Chipper has had a lower on base but is hitting more doubles and homers. He could definitely be performing better, but at his age I believe this is what you can expect out of him.

Melky Cabrera: D

.259 AVG, .316 OBP, .348 SLG, 3 HR, 13 2B, 1 3B, -4.0 bRAA, 95 wOBA+

Melky hasn’t been very productive this season at all. He has had some spurts of success, including a go-ahead home run against the New York Mets last weekend, but for the most part he has struggled. He’s on pace for a similar amount of plate appearances as last year and his numbers are down across the board. He’s played close to every day due to his ability to switch hit and play all three outfield spots but he will likely see his role reduced again when Heyward returns.

Yunel Escobar: F

.238 AVG, .334 OBP, .284 SLG, .618 OPS, 0 HR, 12 2B, -8.9 bRAA, 90 wOBA+

Yunel has seen a dramatic decrease in his production this season and has been close to worthless offensively. He has walked a good amount, as usual, and has kept his strikeouts down, but he has hit for close to no power and his on base has suffered due to a low batting average. He has put himself into scoring position just 17 times and he is staring at a career low fly ball percentage.

Nate McLouth: F

.176 AVG, .295 OBP, .282 SLG, .577 OPS, 3 HR, 9 2B, -9.2 wOBA, 84 wOBA+

Much like Escobar, McLouth has done nothing offensively this year when many expected him to improve. He was better than average last year with the Braves despite popular belief, but he has done nothing offensively aside from one walk-off win this year. The concussion he received against the Diamondbacks was unfortunate, but time off may have been the best thing for him at the time. Hopefully he can return to being at least a decent center fielder when he comes off the DL.

Overall Grade: B+

The reason for the grade is the expectancy. Currently, the Braves are sixth in runs in the NL but many believed pre-season that limited offensive production would be their downfall. Prado, Heyward, and Glaus have been incredible and McCann has done his job, which has made for a very formidable top of the lineup. The improved plate discipline across the lineup is one of the biggest reasons for this team being in first place.

Rotation:

The Braves rotation has been a reason for their success midway through the season. Having five reliable starters is an asset that many teams overlook. The majority of teams slot their starters one through five and have top heavy rotations, but the Braves have done it differently the past two years.

The performances of the starters have taken pressure off of the bullpen and bats. Here are the first half grades for the six starting pitchers.

Tommy Hanson: A-

102.3 IP, 104 K, 34 BB, 3.35 FIP, 16.9 kS%, 12.4 pRAA, 123 tRA+

Tommy is the ace of this staff and has thrown the ball better than he did last season. His strikeouts and walks are actually up while his ERA and WHIP have suffered. The raise in those two almost meaningless statistics is due to his BABIP being the highest in the NL and second highest in the majors at .349. There is really no doubt that Tommy is the best pitcher on this staff — please don’t let the publicized stats make you think differently.

Tim Hudson: B

121.1 IP, 61 K, 43 BB, 4.32 FIP, 11.0 kS%, 5.9 pRAA, 110 tRA+

Hudson has been fortunate on batted balls, posting the lowest BABIP in the NL at .232. He hasn’t pitched nearly as well as his publicized numbers would have you suggest. The defense has played well behind him and he has been able to be successful despite having lower strikeout and higher walk totals than he is used to. His ground ball skills may be a reason for his low BABIP, but even if you factor that in, it’s not enough to explain it being such an absurdly low number. Hudson will either regress or pitch better in the second half to keep his numbers down.

Kris Medlen: B-

68.2 IP, 47 K, 13 BB, 4.38 FIP, 14.9 kS%, -4.4 pRAA, 87 tRA+

Medlen hasn’t been as great as a starter as many would believe, but he has still been pretty solid. Despite his overall numbers as a starter, he has posted a 3.83 xFIP and a 3.78 xFIP in June and July respectively. His overall FIP as a starter is pretty high due to his mark being 5.40 this month, but when you normalize the home run to fly ball ratio you can see he is actually pitching better than the aforementioned numbers would suggest. He doesn’t walk many batters and if he can continue to pound the strike zone he will have success.

Kenshin Kawakami: C

82.1 IP, 57 K, 28 BB, 4.29 FIP, 11.3 kS%, -3.8 pRAA, 91 tRA+

Kenshin was removed from the rotation, but he has had a similar season to Derek Lowe. Lowe’s perception as a consistent innings eater combined with his lofty contract and name factor are why Kawakami was moved to the bullpen and Lowe was never even an option. Kenshin hasn’t been great, he’s been below average, but he has posted a 4.35 xFIP in May and June. He’s better than his face stats suggest.

Derek Lowe: C

113.2 IP, 70 K, 44 BB, 4.24 FIP, 12.1 kS%, -4.7 pRAA, 92 tRA+

Lowe is not worthy of his contract, but as a back-end starter he is successful. He throws a ton of innings and keeps the team in ball games. It’s certainly better than the Kyle Davies of the world that the Braves have dealt with in previous seasons. As I mentioned in the introduction, the Braves have five starters who are solid and Lowe, despite his poor performance since joining the Braves, is no different.

Jair Jurrjens: D+

35.0 IP, 25 K, 16 BB, 4.71 FIP, 15.2 kS%, -1.8 pRAA, 90 tRA+

Jair’s injury kept him out for a majority of the year but when he has pitched he hasn’t been very good. It seems as though his leg injury may have been a product of his spring arm injury and that he was never fully healthy when he was pitching in the beginning of the season. It’s a reasonable argument and he has pitched well in the first two starts since returning. Regardless, he hasn’t helped the team as was expected. You can’t blame him for the injuries, but the injuries hurt his production and overall numbers.

Overall Grade: B

The rotation for the most part has been strong. It hasn’t been the dominant force it was last year, mostly due to Jurrjen’s injury and the loss of Javier Vazquez. Medlen’s and Jurrjen’s stats are a smaller sample size and they should improve. Medlen’s numbers as a reliever would suggest that he is better than his line currently states. Look for the rotation to continue to succeed. More specifically, look for Tommy Hanson to have a great second half.

You can find more from Ben at The Bravesologist, Talking Chop, Roto Experts, or on his twitter @Ben_Duronio

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The baseball season has been full of pleasant surprises thus far. Not only are teams like San Diego surprising fans, but many players, good and bad, are shocking spectators to the bone.

Young and old players alike are playing above and beyond expectations.

This slideshow is dedicated to the veteran oldies that have made an end-of-career surge.

The following five players are the biggest surprises of this season, with Vlad being No. 1.

Begin Slideshow

When a town’s citizen receives the call to the Bigs, his hometown usually goes crazy.

He gets a parade, streets are named after him, the whole deal.

But what happens when the local neighborhood kid is playing for the local favorite team? Everyone goes crazy.

The standard for a hometown hero was set long ago, when Lou Gehrig, a young man from the Yorkville neighborhood of New York City, began his career with the New York Yankees.

“The Iron Horse” would end up setting the record for consecutive games played (since broken by Cal Ripken, another star playing in his hometown) and career hits as a Yankee (since broken by Derek Jeter, who was born in Northern New Jersey).

Since then, greats such as Pete Rose and Tony Gwynn have played in their hometown.

The general consensus around baseball is that Joe Mauer is the one of the greatest players in baseball. But which hometown hero is having the best 2010?

Here are the top ten.

Begin Slideshow

The Atlanta Braves continued their winning ways as veteran right-hander Tim Hudson outdueled rookie sensation Stephen Strasburg.

The Braves threatened in the first two innings but were unable to score against Strasburg. Melky Cabrera was thrown out trying to score in the first, and Blanco grounded into an inning-ending double play in the second with two men on.

The two hurlers matched zeros for six innings before the Braves broke through courtesy of an Ian Desmond error in the bottom of the seventh. The gaffe prevented a likely double play.

Hudson pitched around trouble in the top half of the frame to escape unscathed.

Strasburg came out after the seventh inning stretch and walked Chipper Jones on four pitches and gave up a single to Brian McCann.

Desmond then bobbled a grounder from Troy Glaus to load the bases with no outs. That’s when it all came crashing down for the Nats.

Jones scored from third on an Eric Hinske sacrifice fly. Yunel Escobar ended Strasburg’s night by driving in McCann with a single to left to give the Braves a 2-0 lead.

Gregor Blanco greeted Sean Burnett with an RBI bunt single, and Escobar scored on an infield single by Omar Infante to extend the lead to 4-0.

Martin Prado capped off the five-run seventh inning with a fly ball to right that scored Blanco.

Strasburg pitched 6.1 innings and gave up four runs (three earned) on six hits; he struck out seven and walked two.

Hudson pitched seven scoreless innings and gave up just five hits; striking out six and walking three. Jonny Venters pitched two clean innings in relief for the Braves to secure the 5-0 victory.

With the loss, Strasburg is now 2-2 with a 2.27 ERA despite his fourth quality start in five career outings. Hudson improves to 8-3 with a 2.37 ERA through 16 starts. He is now 5-1 at home this season.

The Braves are 45-32 with a 1.5-game lead over the Mets in the NL East. The Nationals are now 33-44 and have lost five straight games.

Chipper Jones extended his hot hitting and has now hit safely in 11 straight games.

Derek Lowe (9-4, 4.42) will take the mound for Atlanta against Craig Stammen (1-2, 5.34) of the Nationals on Tuesday at Turner Field.

First pitch is at 7:10 PM ET.

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It’s been a while since Atlanta Braves fans have had much to cheer about. Long gone are the days of Maddox, Glavine, and Smoltz. The Jones boys broke up after 2007. The streak of 14 consecutive NL East Championships ended five seasons ago. The 1995 World Series is but a distant memory.

We all knew that their reign atop the NL East couldn’t last forever. Still, it’s been hard to watch the Bravos struggle through four seasons of mediocrity while the Phillies have won three straight division titles and have been to back-to-back World Series— winning it in 2008.

Granted, the Braves’ misfortunes pale in comparison to… the Chicago Cubs.

As they say, “There’s always next year.” This year, my friends, is that year.

The Braves are 37-27 and in first place in the NL East. They’re on pace to go 94-68— the most wins since they went 96-66 in 2004. It would also be the first time the Braves won more than 90 games since the division titles streak ended in 2005.

Why have the Braves been able to turn it around so far this season?

It’s easy to say that it’s been a team effort, and that’s true. However, I’ve identified five Braves who deserve a little extra attention for their contributions in 2010.

Let’s start with…

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Coming into the 2010 season, the Braves had two players who hoped to enter the Comeback Player of the Year race.

Tim Hudson missed the majority of the 2009 season after Tommy John surgery, and many wondered whether the Braves would resign him, as doing so would mean trading either Derek Lowe or Javier Vazquez.

In his late-season appearances, Hudson convinced the Braves that he was worth re-signing, and the team eventually traded away Vazquez (after failing to trade Lowe) in order to stay within the budget.

Looking for a big, right-handed bat, the Braves turned to former slugger Troy Glaus, who also missed the majority of the 2009 season.

After battling through injuries, Glaus had a great 2008 before getting hurt again. Needing a first baseman to bridge the gap to Freddie Freeman, the Braves took a chance on Glaus and brought him in to be a much-needed power bat.

Thus far in the season, Hudson is among the NL leaders with a 2.43 ERA, and Glaus is tied for the NL lead with 46 RBI.

With stats like that, both Hudson and Glaus are in the race for Comeback Player of the Year, but which one will finish the year with the better season?

Tim Hudson:

2010 Stats: 6-2, 2.43 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 0.8 WAR, 85.1 IP, 36:30 K/BB

Underlying Stats: .235 BABIP, 83.3% strand rate, 4.35 FIP, 4.42 xFIP

ZIPS Rest of Season Projection: 5-4, 4.06 ERA in 14 starts

ZIPS Updated Full Season Projection: 11-6, 3.23 ERA

Troy Glaus

2010 Stats: .279/.375/.474 11 HR, 46 RBI, 0.9 WAR

Underlying Stats: .320 BABIP

ZIPS Rest of Season Projection: .260/.363/.449 11 HR, 45 RBI

ZIPS Updated Full Season Projection: .269/.369/.462 22 HR, 91 RBI

The underlying stats show that both players have been lucky so far this season, Hudson more so than Glaus.

As a sinkerball pitcher, Hudson is expected to have an ERA below his FIP, but not two full runs lower. Both his BABIP and strand rate have been extremely fortunate, and he hasn’t shown any ability to miss bats consistently.

Despite everything that has been said, if Hudson finished the season with a 3.23 ERA, he will have surpassed most of the expectations on him coming into the season.

What makes Glaus’ start so impressive is that he couldn’t do anything right in April. On the year, he has a somewhat fortunate BABIP, but his batting average shouldn’t sink too much over the course of the season.

What has stood out the most for Glaus is the number of RBI he has put up. With Martin Prado and Jason Heyward both getting on base at the top of the lineup, he should continue to drive in runs, and might exceed the 91 RBI that ZIPS projects him to have.

Overall, I would have to say Hudson has the better chance of winning the award. Although he is likely to regress more, he has been far more outstanding in the early season.

If both players finished with their ZIPS updated projections, I would definitely choose Hudson.

Even if Glaus exceeds his projection in RBI (and maybe hit a couple more homers), I would still take Hudson with a 3.23 ERA.

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We are now two months into the season. While we are still a long way from the end of the season, those players who are in the MVP and Cy Young races are beginning to fall into place.

In the Cy Young races in particular, there are many candidates who are certainly worthy of the title with how they have been pitching so far. In the National League, there are 16 or so people that should be in the top ten. This is, unfortunately, not possible, and some surprising names are left off this list.

Stats used to rank them are as of May 31.

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