Opening Day is lurking right around the corner and teams are preparing themselves to make a run for the World Series. Many people always say that pitching is the key to success, and that saying has held true for the past few seasons. Here is a ranking of all 30 Opening Day starters.
Tag: Tim Lincecum
MLB Preview 2011: Looking at Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants on Paper
World Champions!
It only took the Giants 66 years to climb back to the top of the mountain, and it was the first World Series title in San Francisco.
And to those who say it was a fluke, it wasn’t. In the year of the pitcher, the Giants proved that they had the best pitching staff in baseball.
Bruce Bochy also proved that he’s one of the best managers in the game. And lastly, while the lineup wasn’t the best, they proved that they could come up with the timely hitting needed to win ball games.
Now the question is, can they repeat?
ALSO CHECK OUT
2011 Philadelphia Phillies Preview
2011 Washington Nationals Preview
2011 Milwaukee Brewers Preview
2011 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
2011 St. Louis Cardinals Preview
San Francisco Giants: Are Tim Lincecum’s Best Days Behind Him?
Tim Lincecum was the king of aces during the Giants‘ 2010 postseason run.
Going head to head with the best aces in the league, he was 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA over 37 innings.
It was vintage Lincecum as he dominated with velocity and control during all three rounds, capping his performance with a closeout victory against the Texas Rangers and Cliff Lee in Game 5 of the World Series.
The stats also show that Lincecum finished the 2010 regular season with 16 wins, an ERA of 3.04 and 231 strikeouts over 212-plus innings.
Lincecum had a good season by most accounts, but the regular season numbers don’t tell the entire story; in fact, if the Giants had not overcome the Padres and made their run through the postseason, one of the stories of the offseason would have been Lincecum’s subpar year.
Subpar is definitely a relative term when you finish the previous two seasons with back-to-back Cy Young awards and a .733 winning percentage and over 500 strikeouts combined.
To say that Lincecum has set the bar high is an understatement, but fans should not forget about the regular season struggles Lincecum endured just because the Giants won the World Series and Lincecum was a major part of it.
The inconsistency he experienced with his mechanics, coupled with the loss of velocity and control, could be the warning signs that all Giants fans have feared is the inevitable. At some point, Lincecum’s pitching arm, which is attached to his165-pound frame, is not going to be able to sustain his above average fastball and his well-documented violent pitching motion.
The question for most baseball analysts is not if, but when and how effective can Lincecum be without an electric fastball.
2010 brought out the best and the worst of Lincecum’s big league career.
Obviously, the best was displayed at the most opportune time as Lincecum showed the entire country on the biggest stage what he is capable of.
With the season ending the way it did, the worst slump of his career has temporarily been forgotten, as Lincecum went 0-5 in August surrendering 33 hits and 22 earned runs in 25 1/3 innings, plus walking 13 for a 7.82 ERA. He also surrendered five homers, his most in any month since he became a major-league player in 2007.
Even worse than the awful numbers Lincecum put up during his August slump was the loss of his velocity and control which ultimately led to a loss of confidence on the mound.
It was painful for Giants fans to watch as Lincecum starting tinkering with his mechanics, his signature motion changed, he wore his socks different, but the result remained the same. He was shelled outing after outing.
There were multiple rumors surrounding the slump. Perhaps Lincecum was experiencing a serious case of dead arm due to all of the innings he had thrown over his first three seasons.
Another rumor stated that Lincecum had stopped training hard and his diet was lacking of proper nutrients.
Whatever the case, the slump displayed a dazed and confused Lincecum as his pinpoint control was gone, the sharp break in his curve ball was missing and his fastball was topping out at 89 miles per hour.
Anyone who has followed Lincecum’s career since he came up in 2007 knows that Lincecum has steadily been losing velocity on his fastball every year. What used to be a consistent fastball in the mid to high 90’s has become a fastball that regularly clocks in the low to mid 90s.
Part of the velocity change is maturity as Lincecum purposely chooses when he wants to dial it up depending on the count and hitter, though I’m positive an August fastball registering in the high 80’s was not by choice.
Thankfully, his development and maturity have also allowed him to pitch out of tough situations without his best stuff, relying on his deceiving changeup and knowledge of hitters.
More and more Lincecum has been forced to rely on his control and pitching savvy as his ability to simply blow guys away is not always available to him.
The August slump wasn’t the first slump of Lincecum’s career; it wasn’t even the first of 2010. After a 4-0 April with a 1.27 ERA, I, like every other Giants fan, had already etched Lincecum’s name on his third consecutive Cy Young award.
Then came May, a month in which Lincecum’s ERA was 4.95 as he started six games and recorded a 1-2 record.
Lincecum seemed to recover in June with a 3-1 record, but he still had an ERA over three. More importantly, he gave up the same amount of hits (33) that he surrendered in his worst months of the season, May and August. If you factor in July’s total (42), between May and August, Lincecum was giving up over a hit an inning with a 4.72 ERA.
Thankfully for all Giant fans Lincecum recorded a 5-1 record in September with a 1.94 ERA, surrendering only 31 hits over 42 innings.
His velocity was back in the 91 to 94 miles per hour range, his control was excellent and his confidence followed suit.
Lincecum’s September, coupled with his postseason dominance has all but washed his regular season woes away for the average fan, but it shouldn’t be forgotten.
Lincecum’s struggles in 2010 were not just your average slump that every pitcher experiences throughout their career, they were more than that. They were the signs of incredible wear and tear on an arm and body that have been asked to exceed their average potential on every outing.
Lincecum’s first four years in the big leagues reminds me of another back-to-back Cy Young Award winner (three total), Pedro Martinez. Martinez came up with the Dodgers in 1992 as a 160 pound, hard throwing right-handed pitcher who consistently was clocked in the 97 to 98 miles per hour range.
After many seasons of mowing guys down with his electric fastball, Martinez’s velocity started to drop down to the low to mid 90’s. The hard throwing phenom also started to go through bouts of dead arm and eventually had to undergo surgery for a torn rotator cuff.
Martinez was able to adjust his game, and he became a masterful pitcher, changing speeds and location, which allowed him to remain as one of the top pitchers in the league for over a decade before his velocity had dropped to the mid to high 80’s and his arm strength was gone.
Giants fans can only hope they are as lucky with Lincecum.
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San Francisco Giants: Would Tim Lincecum Crack Their All-Time Starting Staff?
He has been called “The Freak,” “The Franchise” and “Big Time Timmy Jim.” No matter what you call him, Tim Lincecum has burst onto the scene over the past three and a half years like no other pitcher in Giants history.
Is Tim Lincecum one of the top five pitchers in Giants history?
To answer this question, we must take a look at a long and storied franchise, dating back to their days in New York.
In this article, I will look at the top five pitchers in the days of the New York Giants and also the top five pitchers in San Francisco Giant history.
We will then narrow down that list to come up with our top five of all time.
2011 SF Giants Season Preview: Part 1
2011 SF Giants Season Preview
It is a good time to be a San Francisco Giants fan. Great even. The Gigantes are fresh off an improbable World Series championship, the farm system is a veritable horn-o-plenty in comparison to recent history, and leading the way is arguably the best starting rotation in baseball—that’s right Philadelphia, I went there.
But with the start of a new season, anything is possible, and new questions are raised. Will the Giants training staff find a way to resurrect the corpse of Aaron Rowand? Will Barry Zito be a serviceable fifth starter, or will he be released by the Giants and banished to a baseball purgatory like Baltimore or Kansas City to finish out his career? Is Buster Posey in fact the baseball Messiah?
The (possible) answers to these questions, and more are less than an inch away!
Part 1: The Pitching, Oh God, The Pitching!
Any 2011 preview of the Giants has to begin with pitching. It was pitching that ran roughshod over baseball’s best and captured the Giants first World Series in over 50 years. I argue that this pitching staff would have dominated absolutely any team from any era last year. That’s how good they were during the 2010 Playoffs.
Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are so awesome they don’t even need to be previewed. They are so awesome that, as I was typing this, Lincecum just ruined some Minor Leaguer’s shot at the bigs with a ridiculous changeup, and Cain threw eight scoreless innings with zero media attention. Barring injury, two more excellent seasons can be expected from the top of the Giants’ rotation.
On most other teams, Timmy and Cain would be seen as what they are—two young guns entering their primes. On the Giants, they are the wise old sages tasked with leading the way for the really young guns, like 2010 MLB Playoff insta-hero Madison Bumgarner.
Of all the players on the 2011 roster, Bumgarner is one of the most interesting to me. He burst through last year with dominating performances on baseball’s biggest stages, against the games’ best. He clearly possesses the testicular fortitude to succeed, and dominate as a starter.
But Giants’ fans know that at this time last year there were reports of decreased velocity and increased hittability from the young MadBum, and for a little while there was something of a Chicken Little scenario brewing within the fan base.
While Bumgarner did his best to put these concerns to bed in last years playoffs, keep in mind that he still has not pitched a full Major League season, and spent most of last season stashed in the minors, enjoying the glorious benefits of extra days off (not to mention bus rides to and from Fresno). Realistically, he is still a very young pitcher who needs to learn how to pitch in the majors, and work through the growing pains of a young starter. However, I don’t think a 14-15 win, 3.50 ERA would disappoint anyone, nor do I think it’s unrealistic.
Bruce Bochy and Dave Righetti have proven their abilities to manage a young roster extremely well, and part of me secretly believes there’s a chance that Bumgarner goes Lincecum all over everyone’s A’s and continues to dominate to the tune of 16-17 wins, with an ERA somewhere between his 2010 regular season 3.00 and his otherworldly 2010 postseason 2.18.
Part of the reason I am less concerned than others about his inconsistent velocity throughout his career is that, despite his top-of-the-rotation stuff, his K rate has never been in the Lincecum-circa-2009 range anyways. He may only strike out roughly 6-8 batters per 9 IP, but he pitches to contact with movement that keeps the ball in the park. Most young pitchers arrive in the Majors relying on velocity to get them through their first year or two. Bumgarner relies on movement and control, which makes him a likely candidate to pitch in the bigs for many years to come.
One of the most impressive MadBum stats is his stellar walk rate. In his first Major League season (2009), he walked only 2.7 batters per 9 IP, and lowered that 2.15 last season including the playoffs. Even factoring in a learning curve, Bumgarner clearly has the stuff and the approach to be a successful third or fourth starter at worst, and an ace at best.
My official projection for the 2011 version of Madison Bumgarner looks something like 16 wins, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, with a 3.25 ERA, while maintaining his always impressive WHIP at about 1.200. This factors in some growing pains, but also the flashes of blinding brilliance we have seen from the young lad in the very recent past.
Speaking of pitching to contact, we arrive at everyone’s favorite punching bag, Barry William Zito. These last few years have been tough for Barry and I. I was intrigued by him as he junkballed his was to a Cy Young Award in Oakland. I was mostly mortified when the Giants outbid themselves by $30 million for him, and overpaid him by roughly $90 million, but was secretly happy that he was on the light side of the Bay, and was optimistic about how that knee-buckling curve would play in the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park.
Then reality hit. Zito has been incredibly, unbelievably hittable, and rumors have floated out of Spring Training this year that, after not making last year’s playoff roster, Zito would be cut from the team, and paid his money to walk away. To which I say….RIDICULOUS! Listen, even I, the biggest Zito apologist outside of his immediate family, has found it hard to defend him recently—but I’m going to try anyway. Here are the salient points on the Zito Defense:
1. The Giants have no other options for a fifth starter. Here’s an update I just received: Jeff Suppan is not good. He is not better than Barry Zito, neither is Dontrelle Willis. So unless a legitimate offer comes along for an affordable, durable, 200 inning-throwing, preferably hippie-minded starter, Barry is the best option the team has. By far. I know the anti-Zito haze is hard to see through sometimes, but when Jeff Suppan is standing on the other side of that haze, you’re better off sticking with Barry.
2. The Giants are paying him. I don’t understand ever paying a player to play for another organization. It absolutely never works out well. Unless some team is willing to step up and pay Zito’s salary (stop salivating, Giants fans), there is absolutely no point to not rostering him.
3. He fits in. Let’s face it, the Giants are a team filled with allegedly pot-smoking dirty hippies, and goofballs. And Barry Zito fits right in. He plays guitar, keeps it mellow, doesn’t rock the boat, and is a good teammate. Lincecum likes him. Cain likes him. Posey and Sandoval like him. Therefore I like him.
A statistical projection for Zito seems not only futile, but potentially disappointing. We have all seen both the best and worst of Zito, and most of us know what to realistically expect. However, with lowered expectations comes lowered responsibility.
There has been talk of making Jonathan Sanchez the No. 2 starter, in order to break up the lefties and righties, as well as the pitchers who are capable of consistently pitching late into games (Lincecum and Cain), from those who struggle in that area (Sanchez, Zito, and the youngster Bumgarner, who will not be expected to reach the innings totals of his starter brethren).
A rotation of Lincecum, Sanchez, and Cain, followed by Bumgarner and Zito, puts Barry in the fourth slot at best, and the fifth at worst.
Do I think this demotion will result in a return to Cy Young form? Obviously not. But matching up with Jon Garland and Wade Leblanc is surely more advantageous than, say, Clayton Kershaw and Mat Latos. Just saying.
A potential answer to Zito’s expected inconsistency could be Jonathan Sanchez, AKA the mystery wrapped in a riddle bundled up in an enigma. I think if I had one wish for the Giants organization, it would be for consistency from Sanchez, because when he’s on, he’s as good as anyone in the league including his battery mates. But when he’s off, he’s a frustrating, frustrating man to watch. He sprays crisp 94 MPH fastballs all over the place. He twists off incredible sliders that would break hitters down if it weren’t a foot off the plate. His arm action frustrates hitters to the point that, were they to swing at the fastball whizzing a foot over their heads, their timing would definitely be off.
With the need to give Bumgarner some extra rest days as often as possible, a good season from Sanchez would be a key shot in the arm for this team. And there’s reason to be hopeful. In 2010 not only did Sanchez lower his ERA to 3.07, he maintained his stellar K rate, at over 9 per game. He also seemed to be more able to work through a difficult or stressful inning. He still gave up the occasional big hit(s), but his composure on the mound just seemed to be headed in the right direction.
I’m optimistic about Sanchez in 2011. I have faith that he will put it all (or at least some of it) together enough to finally have the season we’ve all been waiting for. For me, a projection of about 175-180 IP, 3.15 ERA, 9.5-10 K/9 and, good God let’s hope for, a sub 4 BB/9 ratio, seems about right. Although I have felt this way in the past, and have been proven wrong before on this topic, and let’s be honest, a 4.00 ERA with 4.8 K/9 wouldn’t surprise anyone.
While the starting rotation is clearly the strength of this ball club, the bullpen remains somewhat of a mystery to me. While they can be fully expected to lead the league in ridiculous haircuts and outlandish facial hair, this is not a group for whom consistency is a strength.
I, like all Giants fans, have been tantalized and disappointed by Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt more times than I can count. When I watch Romo pitch, I see sliders that should be unhittable, starting in the strike zone and breaking three feet off the plate, leaving batters looking foolish and confused. In nearly every game that Romo appears in, he has at least one moment that makes you stop and think “this guy has incredible stuff. He should be one of the best relievers in the league”. Problem is, these thoughts are often followed by a slider that hangs over the plate and is promptly deposited in the outfield bleachers by subpar NL West utility players.
Affeldt presents a similar quandary: is he the guy with the Zito-esque curve and the 96 MPH fastball, or is he the guy who struggles with his control, and gets knocked around by patient-yet-below-average hitters, like the David Eckstein’s of the world?
For me, Romo and Affeldt are the key to the success of the bullpen. Brian Wilson will undoubtedly be Brian Wilson—that is to say he will throw 98 MPH gas, walk one or two hitters too many, and generally give Giants fans a collective heart attack on his way to racking up his 40+ saves.
Javier Lopez, I’m assuming, will continue to own left handed hitters like Cody Ross owns Roy Halladay. And guys like Santiago Casilla and “Razor” Ramon Ramirez will prove serviceable enough to eat up some innings and spell the studs.
But Affeldt and Romo are the key.
With a little consistency, the Giants will have arguably the NL’s best bullpen again. But bullpen’s are fickle mistresses. Elite closers turn into overpaid specialists seemingly overnight, and one injury can decimate a relief crew (just look at former-Giant Joe Nathan’s Twins last season). Healthy and productive years from Affeldt and Romo would give San Francisco the depth to withstand an injury or two (just plug in a Dan Runzler here and an Alex Hinshaw there), but anything less than that could present real problems. Runzler and Hinshaw are great as innings-eaters/injury replacements, but asking them to step up and play major roles is a lot to ask, and I am dubious as to whether they are up to the task.
All that said, the Brian Sabean, Bruce Bochy, and Dave Righetti seem to have a knack for piecing together excellent relief crews. They did pick up Javier “sit DOWN, Ryan Howard” Lopez and Ramon Ramirez for nothing last season, and despite their penchant for high-wire acts, both Romo and Wilson have developed nicely overall, with Wilson emerging as an elite closer and the only modern-day pirate (swashbuckling variety, not Pittsburgh variety) to achieve MLB fame and fortune.
Well that does it for Part 1, hopefully you didn’t’ hate my initial foray into sports blogging, and hopefully you will stay tuned for Part 2: The Offense
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MLB: The Top 10 Players Who Must Avoid Injuries in 2011
Serious injuries are never good things for baseball players, but the extent to which health problems affect someone’s career depends a lot on the situation.
For example, a young player who still has time to recover before he enters his prime is likely to bounce back, and a guy in the middle of a long-term contract doesn’t have to worry about finding a new job right away.
But for talented stars entering free agency or to a lesser extent, their arbitration years, getting seriously hurt could end up costing them several million dollars. And for older players whose ability to maintain their current levels of performance, a bad injury could mean a forced retirement.
In this slideshow are the 10 MLB players who would have the most to lose if they were struck by serious injuries.
The Young Guns: Felix Hernandez and the Top 10 MLB Pitchers 26 and Younger
Every team wants one, he’s more important than a power hitter, a shut down closer, or a super utility man. Every team wants a young No.1 starter at or under the age of 26; a young superstar pitcher you can build your team around, one less spot in the rotation that you have to worry about.
You hold on to these pitchers like your life depends on it, and you overprotect that arm like you overprotect your child. Because your entire franchise is on that throwing arm, and everybody knows that throwing arms are made out of glass.
For this list, I am looking for several things: past performance, injuries, contribution to the team, pure stuff, and whether or not their future is looking bright.
Every pitcher under or at 26 or under in the majors is eligible, injured or not.
Fantasy Baseball: Pitching Preview for Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants
That San Francisco Giants rotation! That damn San Francisco Giants rotation!!
They are the only reason my home-state Texas Rangers are not the current World Series champions (I refuse to give credit to Juan Uribe, Edgar Renteria or Cody Ross).
And now I have to spend an hour or two looking at their names and discussing them. I will not enjoy this preview, but I hope you do and that you take some useful information from it.
The ace of the staff is “The Freak,” Tim Lincecum. There is no need to tell you in great detail why he is a fantasy stud, because you already know.
But one of the head honchos here at The Fix, Alan, tweeted this impressive stat a few days ago, “Most strikeouts from 2008-2010? Tim Lincecum with 757. Second best? Justin Verlander with 651.”
With Matt Cain, the Giants also have one of the three or four best 1-2 punches in the league (Phillies, Angels and Cardinals would be the others).
There has been some conversation over at Fangraphs recently about how Cain has been able to keep fly balls from leaving the park so consistently over his five-year career. HR/FB rate is thought of as something that is somewhat variable and not always completely within the pitcher’s control. For Cain, factors such as a favorable park and an emphasis on keeping the ball down in the zone, have been mentioned as possibilities.
The follow-up question to that inquiry is whether he can keep the low HR/FB rate going.
I would say he has a pretty good track record at this point and is still in the same favorable home ballpark. When you add Cain’s consistency in the strikeout department and his improved control (which helped him post a 1.08 WHIP last year) to his ability to keep balls in the yard, you get a top-20, maybe even top-15, pitcher.
In the interest of full disclosure, I have always thought of Jonathan Sanchez as overrated. Admittedly, the season he turned in last year (3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 205 K’s) makes it look like I was wrong about him.
But I would like to submit to you the following facts from Sanchez’s 2010 numbers:
His BABIP was 37 points lower than his career average, his strand rate was over seven percent higher than his career average, his ERA was below 4.00 for the first time in his career despite his FIP and xFIP remaining in the four’s and his control still sucks (4.47 BB/9).
I am not saying Sanchez is not a mixed league-worthy pitcher, but I am saying that I disagree with everyone else here ranking him so high. He is the No. 32 starting pitcher in TheFantasyFix.com’s new draft guide (BUY IT NOW!!!). That being said, I’ve even seen him as low as 27 on other sites!
I would, without a doubt, rather have Daniel Hudson (40), Hiroki Kuroda (41), Ted Lilly (43) and Ricky Romero (54). I just do not see how a guy who will be average in wins and ERA is a potential WHIP killer (combined WHIP of 1.40 in 2008 and 2009), and the fact that he only stands out in K’s, makes him a borderline top-30 option.
Speaking of guys I feel are improperly ranked everywhere, can somebody please explain to me how in the hell Madison Bumgarner is a top-50 starting pitcher? There is no reason to think such a young arm is going to be a 200+ inning pitcher who throws deep enough into games to rack up the W’s.
Bill James has him projected for 12 wins, and with Bumgarner likely to throw somewhere between 175 and 190 innings, 12 wins seems like the high end for his win projection.
He is no strikeout stud either. In 107 innings at AA, Bumgarner had a 5.80 K/9, and in 82.2 innings at AAA, he had a 6.42 K/9. Not exactly what I would call overpowering lesser minor league talent. What the kid does do well is throw strikes,—he has good BB/9 numbers at every level—but a low walk total does not always translate to stellar WHIP.
Between AAA and the majors, Bumgarner has given up more than a hit per inning. So, if his WHIP was just a HIP (WHIP minus the walks, obviously), it would be a 1.06. Add the walks to that, and there is little chance Bumgarner gets the WHIP under 1.25 in 2011.
There is nothing wrong with a 1.30-ish WHIP, but when that is supposed to be your strength, you are probably not a strong starting pitching option.
Barry Zito is not the Cy Young-caliber pitcher he once was, and he is definitely not worth that monstrosity of a contract. But just because he is not a fantasy ace anymore does not mean he is no longer useful.
Since 2006, Zito has been remarkably consistent, if you exclude the train wreck he had in 2008. He usually posts about 10 wins, along with an ERA near 4.0, a WHIP between 1.35 and 1.40 and a K/9 around 6.00. While not usable in mixed leagues, consistent numbers like that have value in NL-only leagues.
There is always the risk that Zito has another train wreck in 2011, but he should be a solid fourth or fifth starter for NL-only owners.
THE FANTASY FIX 2011 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT KIT IS NOW AVAILABLE!
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who would also like to point out that Madison Bumgarner’s strand rate was 10 percent higher than the league average last season. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Tim Lincecum: Can San Francisco Giants Pitcher’s Body Hold Up Moving Forward?
No pitcher in the history of baseball has won two Cy Young awards in his first two full major league seasons. Tim Lincecum is a truly special pitcher and athlete.
This gifted pitcher leads, arguably, the best pitching staff in baseball and has a World Series championship on his resume.
The real question now is: How long can he continue to pitch at such a high level?
I will review several pro’s and con’s pertaining to the outlook for Tim Lincecum’s continued success.
CC Sabathia Leaving The New York Yankees? 10 Lesser Bone-Head Moves (Satire)
Last season, New York Yankees ace CC Sabathia stated to the press that despite having the option to do so, he would not opt out of his contract. Joining the team in 2009, the big lefty’s seven-year, $161 million deal has a clause that allows him to opt out after three years, should he want to.
Just yesterday, however, Sabathia hinted that he might exercise that clause after the season. Being a Yankee fan, I just had one response. WHY?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
Sabathia is, for all intents and purposes, the top dog of the Yankees pitching staff. Were he to opt out for more money, there aren’t any other big market teams who would be able to swing the funds to do so. Long story short, it would be the stupidest career decision he could possibly make.
Hell, while we’re at it, let’s have a look at some other, less idiotic things that could happen!