Kuzul

As the 2011 Major League Baseball season is just over two months away, it’s appropriate to start thinking about the key pieces for every team this season.

While we saw the Giants win the World Series with a pitching-heavy formula, their championship counterparts, the Texas Rangers, road Josh Hamilton’s bat the majority of the way there.

Every team has high expectations coming into the season, and here is a list of players who will have to produce in order for their teams to meet them.

Be prepared for some surprises, as several big-name players have changed teams.

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Tim Lincecum is entering his fourth full season in San Francisco.  In his first three seasons, Lincecum won 40 games and only lost 17.  He won Cy Young awards in his first two full major league seasons, the only player ever to do so.

It’s amazing that Tim Lincecum’s 2010 season, where he went 16-10 with an ERA of 3.43 and 231 strikeouts in 212 innings pitched, can be considered a down year.  That’s how good this guy is. 

Last season had its ups and downs for Tim Lincecum, as he struggled in August and lost all five of his starts during that month.  Lincecum also did not get through the seventh inning in any of those five starts. 

Tim Lincecum turned it around in September, as he went 5-1 down the stretch.  Lincecum also pitched well in the postseason, but the poor August was a bit of a wakeup call for him. 

I fully believe Tim Lincecum will regain his outstanding form in the 2011 season.  Let’s take a look at 10 factors that will help Tim Lincecum return to top form.

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With 2010 being “The Year of the Pitcher” it seemed high time someone threw together a list of the nastiest pitches from the season. 

This list isn’t based on any statistical evidence, merely on my opinion and observations. 

Credit for my inspiration for this list goes to Joel Reuter who compiled a similar list in 2009.

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With the NFL playoffs in full swing and conference showdowns this weekend bringing the four remaining teams closer to the ultimate prize, it’s easy to see why football is on the mind of the sporting world. With the college football season finally at its end, fans of the sport are eagerly turning towards the pro circuit and how could they not?

Jets at Steelers? Intense matchup.
Packers at Bears? Great rivalry.

Last weekend’s games were really exciting as well. All right, well maybe not the Seahawks game, but my point is clear enough.

Even with these (mostly) great games, I still somehow find myself contemplating the upcoming Major League Baseball season and the chances of a repeat for the 2010 champs, my hometown San Francisco Giants. Maybe I’m focused on baseball because spring training tickets just went on sale or maybe it’s simply because the astonishing fact that the Giants won the World Series continues to amaze me, but San Francisco baseball remains at the pinnacle of my sports brain.

While those explanations are certainly true to an extent, I believe the true reasoning behind my great interest in the best of the west is my apprehension in regards to the team’s credibility. Most fans following a World Series victory by their team would not have to worry about it because, after all, the best way to silence critics is to go out and win it all, right? Right? Well, apparently not for this team.

Even with the title, and a convincing one at that, the Giants still don’t seem to get the recognition one might expect. It seems that every few days I’m reading a new article about how the Giants will likely finish an uncompetitive third in a supposedly revamped NL West or how one of the best starting pitching staffs in baseball will falter in 2011. It seems that to everyone outside of the Bay Area, the Giants are destined to return to their post–Barry Bonds form. It seems to me that one is not enough for 2010’s most surprising team. Still, written or spoken words of grandeur are easy to use and it remains uncertain how and if Bruce Bochy can really engineer a repeat performance.

Remember that the Giants were incredibly fortunate all year in that their pitching staff stayed fairly healthy, especially the starters. That luck can simply not be expected again and some members of bullpen core like Dan Runzler and Chris Ray may have to step in. You can also never expect to have the highest ERA of all your starting pitchers to be 4.15, courtesy of Barry Zito. Although with a full season of Bumgarner and the rest of the staff, I’d say they have a pretty good shot. However, this pitching staff is still young and I believe it is only going to improve.

On the offensive side of the ball, the 2010 Giants simply managed. The hitters were hot and clutch in the playoffs (a deadly combination) but only Aubrey Huff was consistent during the regular season and Juan Uribe provided some pop. With Uribe gone and Huff far from a lock to go .290/26/86 again, the bats need to improve and improve with the pieces that are already there. A full year of Buster Posey at the plate will help and Miguel Tejada should be an improvement at shortstop. The variable will be minor league prodigy Brandon Belt, a big, lefty first baseman who I had the pleasure of watching at Single-A in San Jose before he tore through the farm system. If Belt’s .352/23/112 numbers in the minor leagues are a sign of things to come, the Giants will be as ready as any other team to win it all in 2011.

I’m clearly ready for baseball season but, for now, I guess I’ll just have to wait for Spring and hope that football will tide me over until I can finally smell garlic fries and freshly mown grass at the ballpark.

Plaut Out.

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Over the course of the off season I’ve read my fair share of articles listing teams and their power rankings or their projected records for the 2011 season.  One trend that I’ve noticed is that the Philadelphia Phillies are the favorites of the National League (maybe all of MLB, but the Red Sox really stepped it up this year). Usually, the team to beat is the reigning World Series Champion, which this year is the San Francisco Giants. Even though some credit is given to them, they seem to not be given as much attention as the Phillies. Usually, a fan of the Giants such as myself would cry foul “East coast bias” or something similar to that, but let’s look at this for a bit.

First of all, the biggest debate won’t be decided until at least the All-Star Break come July. Whose pitching staff is better, San Francisco or Philadelphia?  Many have looked into this, so I wont go into too much detail, but it looks as if the starting rotations are both excellent.

Philadelphia has Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hammels, and Joe Blanton as their starting five.  Roy Halladay is great, amazing even.  He won the NL Cy Young award this year.  How? He threw two no-hitters last year, one of which was a perfect game, and then he no-hit the Reds, who had a very nice offense all year that included the NL MVP Joey Votto.  He is no doubt an ace.  

Cliff Lee is next.  He has a career record of 102-61 with an ERA of 3.85, ERA+ of 112 and a WHIP of 1.256 all of which are not bad.  His real value is in the playoffs where, until this post season, he was undefeated with a 7-0 record in 10 games started.  Even with the two losses to the Giants, he is 7-2 with an ERA of 2.13 and a WHIP of 0.816.  Not bad at all, not the ace with Halladay up there, but a very solid pitcher.  

Oswalt is another solid pitcher.  Similar win-loss percentage and ERA to Lee, and a better ERA+ and WHIP.  He has completed 10 years in the majors.  Oswalt had a bit of a rough start in Houston in 2010, but really turned it around in Philly, as he went from a 6-12 pitcher to a 7-1 guy as soon as he ended up there.  

Next up is Cole Hammels.  Cole is 26, and getting better each year.  3.53 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 123 ERA+, above an “average” pitcher, and I am going to guess that he’s going to improve.

Finally, we get to Joe Blanton, the number five starter for the Phillies.  Like most fifth starters, we see a drop off in the stats.  He has an above .500 win-loss record, but his ERA is 4.30, and his ERA+ is 99, below average.  His whip is around average at 1.343, but he gives up an average of 10.6 hits/9 innings.

Now to the San Francisco Giants.  The number one pitcher is Tim Lincecum.  The Giants ace is a former two-time Cy Young award winner.  He had a down year in 2010, as evident in his horrific August showing.  He still led the NL in Strikeouts with 231, and had an above average 119 ERA+ as well as having a 9.8 K/9 innings.  The playoffs showed what Lincecum could do when he was on.  He had a 14 strikeout game vs the Braves in his very first playoff appearance.  Additionally, he helped the Giants win their first Word Series title since moving to San Francisco by beating Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. 

Matt Cain is second up.  The Workhorse of the Giants staff, Cain is also the “Veteran” of the staff, as he has been in the Giants’ rotation the longest of any of the current starters.  This year, Cain showed his usual consistent self posting a 3.14 ERA, 130 ERA+, 1.084 WHIP, and four complete games including two shutouts.  We also can’t forget his stellar post season.  Cain went 2-0 in three starts with 21.1 innings pitched, a WHIP of 0.938, and an ERA of 0.00.  He gave up one unearned run through 21.1 innings.  

Now on to Jonathan Sanchez, the only Giants starter with a no-hitter.  As many have said before me, Sanchez’s stuff is nasty.  If he was more consistent, Sanchez could very well be the ace of the staff. Sanchez may have an ERA+ of 101, barely above average and an ERA of 4.26, but he is very much improved over the past years, as his ERA dropped 1.17 points from 2009 to 2010.  While Sanchez led the league in Walks, he also led the league in batting average against, allowing an average of 6.6 hits per nine innings and a .204 BAA.  In September and October, Sanchez showed how good he is when he is on.  He was 4-1 with an ERA of 1.01, a WHIP of 1.037, and a BAA of .151.  Unfortunately, he sometimes can let games get away, as seen in the playoffs, especially in the NLCS when he had to exit the sixth game in the second inning after giving up two runs and three hits as well as walking two batters.  Overall, Sanchez is improving though, and I expect more improvement in 2011.  

The Giants’ fourth starter is young Madison Bumgarner.  Because he has only played in parts of two seasons, we’ll just look at his 2010 stats.  He has a 7-6 Win Loss record, an ERA of an even 3.00, a WHIP of 1.306, and an ERA+ of 136.   Not bad at all, especially considering his rookie status.  Moving into the postseason, Bumgarner went 2-0 with an ERA of 2.18, and a WHIP of 1.113, including his eight-inning shutout performance vs. the best lineup the AL had to offer in the World Series.

Finally, we arrive at Barry Zito as the Giants’ fifth starter.  Zito is the only starter on the starting rotation that is over 30.  That being said, he has also performed the worst.  A three time all-star and former Cy Young award winner, Zito was a promising player when he crossed the Bay into S.F, but he has not performed well since then.  He’s gone 40-57 with an ERA of 4.45, a WHIP of 1.408, and an ERA+ of 97. He did show promise at the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010, however, and is solid as a fifth starter.  I have faith that he will step up as his contract is nearing it’s end, and I hope that he can pull it together and at least grab a .500 record in 2011.

As you can see, both rotations are stellar.  In numbers, I can now see why people are saying that Philadelphia has the best rotation, however, we have to keep in mind that in the post season, the Giants beat each of the Phillies pitchers (except Joe Blanton), and the Giants have a much younger squad.  While injuries are possible for anyone, with age comes the greater risk, so I’d say that the Phillies are more likely to get unlucky.  That being said, and because I am a die hard Giants fan, I’d have to say that it could go either way, but I’ll lean towards the Giants and their torture.

Staring Pitchers aren’t the only pitchers though, the bullpen plays a huge part of a team’s success. This is the weakest part of the Phillies’ pitching staff.  Their closer, Brad Lidge had a perfect season in 2009, but in 2010 only had 27 saves.  While his ERA and WHIP are both better than average, he is still somewhat inconsistent.  The rest of the Phillies bullpen is average at best with Madson being their best reliever.  Besides his 2.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 64 K’s, the next best is Conteras with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, and ends up with Baez at a 5.48 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP.

The Giants on the other hand have a very good bullpen that includes former TYIB Reliever of the Year Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Castilla, Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, and Brian Wilson.  Affeldt was injured for part of the year and didn’t seem to bounce back too well until his masterful relief appearance in game six of the NLCS. Santiago Casilla is a great strikeout pitcher with a K/9 of 9.1 and a nice 6.5 H/9. Lopez was wonderful at shutting down left-handed batters, and Romo is a good set up man for the man who led the league in saves, Brian Wilson.  As proof to the bullpen’s strength, anyone can look to that sixth game of the NLCS when the ‘pen had to pitch seven innings of shut out ball to stop the Phillies and take the Giants to the World Series.

Now that we’ve finished with pitching, we can move on to hitting.

The Phillies will probably have a lineup consisting of:

1. Jimmy Rollins    

2. Placido Polanco

3. Chase Utley    

4. Ryan Howard  

5. Raul Ibanez    

6. Shane Victorino  

7. Domonic Brown  

8. Carlos Ruiz      

All in all a very reasonable threat to score.

As we move to the Giants, we see they’ll have: 

1. Andres Torres

2. Freddy Sanchez

3. Buster Posey

4. Aubrey Huff

5. Pat Burrell

6. Pablo Sandoval

7. Miguel Tejada

8. Cody Ross.

Looking at the two lineups, I would say Philadelphia has an edge in the hitting department, unless Sandoval really steps up his game to his 2009 numbers, Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres, and Freddy Sanchez all do as well as or better than 2010, and Miguel Tejada becomes the power boost that S.F. needs.

Looking at the numbers, I can still see why Philadelphia is the “team to beat”, but you can never write off the San Francisco Giants.  They were written off in 2010, and they made it all the way.  The base statistics may say one thing, but team chemistry also matters, and the Giants have a big advantage on that aspect of the game.

As we look forward to the beginning of Spring Training and the 2011 season we don’t know if the Phillies will be the best team out there, and we don’t know if the Giants will repeat as World Champions. All that is certain is that we are all looking forward to a great season and hopefully a fun and eventful rematch between the Phillies and the Giants.

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The NL West was arguably one of the best divisions last season thanks in large part to the Giants bullpen and the Padres’ early success.

With young talent running deep, the NL West looks to continue its exciting play and eventually sponsor a squad in a playoff run in October.

Let’s look at 25 guys that could make that a reality, or a repeat.

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With most of the top free agents now signed and teams starting to take shape as we approach spring training, I thought I would share my pre-pre-season perspective on the relative strengths (and weaknesses) of all 30 major league teams. I have broken the article down into three installments, and will publish one of the segments each day this weekend.

Part I (Saturday) examined the three teams I view as the weakest in baseball; Part II (yesterday) covered the teams in the middle of the pack; and Part III (today) previews the 10 teams I believe to be the best in baseball.

Without further ado, here is how I see things:

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When pitchers and catchers report next month, the San Francisco Giants will still be world champions. And they will still be the defending champs for at least the next 11 months, which is comforting for all of us Giants fans. 

The front office has done their part to try and keep it that way in 2011, and with the exception of the heart-wrenching, bile-inducing, loyalty-destroying defection of Juan Uribe to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the roster that got the Giants to the playoffs will look very much the same as it did in 2010.

One part (the main part) of the team that got the Giants to the pinnacle of the baseball world was another outstanding year from the starting rotation. Granted, there were no brilliant standout performances like those Tim Lincecum produced when he garnered back-to-back Cy Young awards,but the consistency and quality up and down the rotation was remarkable.

The lowest ERA on the staff belonged to the rookie, Madison Bumgarner (3.00). The highest, to the oldest member of the staff, Barry Zito (4.15). The average ERA of that starting rotation was a highly respectable 3.35, and the fact that everyone was fairly consistent in this case meant that the Giants were always within reach of winning the game.

However, not one of the Giants’ front four starters missed a start due to injury. Each one of them pitched an identical 33 games. Madison Bumgarner took over for Todd Wellemeyer after his injury, but didn’t miss any games for the rest of the season (or postseason, for that matter). 

And even though San Francisco didn’t carry Barry Zito on any of the postseason rosters, his second-half collapse cannot be discounted. Basically, the Giants were very lucky, and to expect another season of injury-free starters isn’t exactly ridiculous, but careless.

Over the years, the Giants have had a bevy of pitching prospects waiting in the wings. More often than not, they were traded away in the Sabean days pre-dating the current prospect boom (more to come on that). Yet now it comes to pass that they’re all here in the majors, making up 80 percent of the starting rotation. 

There were the dark days of the fifth starter, when the fifth day was split between Brad Hennessey, Dustin Hermanson, Chad Zerbe, Ryan Jensen, Pat Misch, Kevin Correia and others, and when every few days a win was an amazing feat, and was usually due to the bullpen and some late-inning heroics.

Those were not good times.

Remember when Jonathan Sanchez was a swingman/emergency starter out of the bullpen? He’s now the No. 4. And when Tim Lincecum was a rookie phenom? He’s the ace. And remember when we were all itching for the day that Bumgarner would have a chance to crack the already stacked rotation?Well, he did.

And remember when Barry Zito was under contract until 2035? Me too.

The truth is, there’s no longer anyone waiting in the wings in case something happens. That’s not to say that the Giants are without legitimate pitching prospects. Not at all. They’re just all down in the lower minors, and none of them have the kind of experience needed to hop into an emergency role.

Gone is Kevin Pucetas, who was competing with Wellemeyer during spring training last year. Gone is Eric Hacker, who has spent seven years in the minors but recently signed on with the Twins. Denny Bautista had experience as a starter but is also gone. Joe Martinez and Ryan Sadowski aren’t around anymore. 

Dan Runzler has apparently been working on being a starter. With Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt already presenting a southpaw-heavy bullpen, this might be his way to stick with the major league club.

There are still some free-agent starters out there, but I would prefer that the Giants find someone low risk, high reward, who is comfortable with a minor league deal but who can still perform against major league hitting.

The market for such a starter will clear up in the weeks leading up to spring training as clubs start making cuts. 

Again, all five of the Giants starters have a pretty solid track record when it comes to injuries. But you never know, anything can happen. Just ask Stephen Strasburg.

And the Giants have to be prepared.

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There is nothing more intimidating for a hitter than being stared down by a power pitcher who can blow a fastball right by them. Fans also get excited as these pitchers light up the radar gun and rack up the strikeouts.

The rankings on this list will be determined by a combination of the pitchers’ talents, stats and their ability to bring the heat.

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In 2007, Bruce Bochy became the Giants’ manager.  In that season, the team won 71 games and finished last in their division.  In each season since then, the Giants have improved their win-loss record while finishing higher in the division. 

Four years ago the Giants were a mess.  They were old, they were brittle, and they were overshadowed by Barry Bonds’ tainted journey to a record nobody outside of the bay really wanted to see broken.

In 2007, the Giants extensively used Ryan Klesko, a then 36-year-old veteran.  In 116 games, he hit only six home runs while batting .260.  Also, at first was Rich Aurilia, who barely mustered an OBP over .300. 

Then you had Dave Roberts, then 35, in centerfield.  Like Klesko, he managed to hit .260 while making $5 million that year.  In addition, Omar Vizquel was the starting shortstop, but even at age 40, it’s hard to throw him aside.  Though his offense was well below average, his defense was strong enough that he could have been an asset had there been solid hitters surrounding him in the lineup.  There weren’t.

The Giants’ average age was 33.1 in 2007, and no starting position player was under the age of 32.  Fast forward to 2010, and the Giants’ average age fell to 29.6 with no starting position player over the age of 33. 

In those three years, the Giants became younger and stronger.

Their homerun total rose from 131 to 162 with a 21 point increase in OPS.  In 2007, the Giants were last in the National League in slugging percentage and OPS.  They were sixth and eighth this past season, respectively.

Even though the Giants’ offense was not intimidating even this last year, upgrades were made to be competitive.  Then their pitching, the strength of the 2007 team, took an even bigger step forward in the three years after.

Back in Tim Lincecum’s rookie year, the Giants had three starters with an ERA of 4.00 or below (Matt Cain, Noah Lowry, Lincecum), and only Cain threw more than 200 innings.  The team ERA of 4.19 was good enough for fifth in the NL, yet the offense held the Giants to their 71 wins.

This past season, the Giants jumped to the league lead in ERA at 3.36, and four of the Giant starters not only had an ERA below 4.00, but also below 3.50. 

Since Bruce Bochy arrived in San Francisco, the Giants have literally gone from worst in the division to first.  This cannot be attributed solely to Bochy, or GM Brian Sabean, but to a new movement in the organization.

Since the start of the 2007 season, the Giants have drafted Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey, two key pieces of last October’s memorable run.  Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez improved in that same time span, though Zito has more or less remained stagnant in his San Francisco career. 

You won’t see Ryan Klesko hogging up a spot in the middle of the order or Dave Roberts at the top of the lineup.  The Giants have learned to avoid bloated contracts that handcuff the organization.  The only exception is the deal to sign Barry Zito, which, surprise, occurred before the 2007 season. 

Since that Barry Zito deal, the only truly awful contract has been given to Aaron Rowand, but even his $60 million deal appears cheap compared to other regrettable contracts (think Alfonso Soriano). 

If anything, the Giants have found a way to play around the contracts of Zito and Rowand.  Rowand’s contract lasts for only two more years, with Zito lasting three more.  Once that money is taken off the books, the Giants will be able to lock in their younger, more reliable players including Buster Posey, Lincecum, Cain, and other young studs. 

The starting lineup is now built around young stars in Posey, and yes, Pablo Sandoval too.  Brandon Belt is projected to arrive in San Francisco next summer, and the rest of the lineup complements the growth of these young hitters.

Still, the biggest upgrade has been in the pitching department.  Much has been made of the Giants’ homegrown success on the mound, and it cannot be understated. 

With a stronger farm system and the foresight not to get locked into unreasonable free agent contracts, the Giants have discovered their own little way to win.  It’s that simple.  

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