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The San Francisco Giants have overpaid once again. This time, Tim Lincecum is the benefactor of the Giants’ generosity.

The Giants signed Lincecum to a two-year, $35 million contract Tuesday, according to Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News. It’s a move that is being questioned by ESPN’s Buster Olney:

For a player that has a 4.76 ERA over the last two years and only 28 quality starts out of 65, $17.5 million per year seems like too much, especially considering the qualifying offer would have been around $14 million.

Keeping that in mind, what made the Giants give that much to Lincecum? Was it the fact that they have a history of overpaying guys (see Marco Scutaro)? Was it the lack of depth on the free-agent market or do they genuinely believe he will regain the form of a Cy Young winner?

Let’s dig into this further.

Giants’ Generosity with Marco Scutaro

We could bring up Barry Zito’s seven-year, $126 million deal the Giants gave him in 2007, but that would be too easy. For that money, the Giants got 63 wins and a 4.62 ERA. And not once did he have an ERA below 4.00.

Jeremy Affeldt would be another easy target, considering he was given closer-type pay with a three-year, $18 million deal. This season, Affeldt was good for 39 appearances and a 3.74 ERA.

Instead, let’s look at Scutaro’s circumstances.

Scutaro was a playoff hero in 2012, batting .500 in the NLCS (earning MVP honors) and lining a single that broke a tie in the do-or-die Game 4 against the Tigers. He also excelled in 62 games with the Giants after being traded from the Rockies, batting .362 with three home runs and 44 RBI.

For that, the Giants rewarded him with a three-year, $20 million deal.

However, Scutaro was in the midst of his best statistical season, having never hit above .300 in his career before. He had shown bits of power with 23 home runs between 2009-10, but none of his stats jump off the page.

So, what did the Giants get in return for $6.67 million this year? A .297 average with two home runs and 31 RBI.

Instead, they could have signed someone like Ryan Raburn, who hit .272 with 16 home runs and 55 RBI, and was on a minor-league contract with the Indians. Granted, Rayburn had an injury-plagued 2012, but he historically had produced at the play (45 home runs, 156 RBI) between 2009-11.

Now, it’s hard to predict what a player will do in a given season, but isn’t that what a scouting department is for? Somebody had to think Scutaro might not have been the best option, despite having a career year in 2012.

Bad Free-Agent Pitching Market

Another argument could be that there isn’t much value on the free-agent pitching market. With only a few big names out there this offseason, did the Giants figure it there was no alternative but to go ahead and keep Lincecum?

Matt Garza is the only true ace-caliber pitcher on the market this offseason, although an argument can be made for Tim Hudson because he has averaged almost 14 wins a season over a 15-year career.

Here’s how Lincecum’s numbers compare to other top free-agent pitchers over the last three years:

When you look at those numbers, there’s nothing to get overly excited about. It’s not like last year, when Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez headlined the class.

Whether it’s the injuries over the last few years to Garza and Hudson, or Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana having never shown the ability to be consistent in back-to-back seasons, each pitcher has question marks.

Return to Cy Young Form

It’s also possible that the Giants believe Lincecum will return to his old Cy Young self, giving the team a real bargain with this contract.

Here’s what Lincecum has done year-by-year over the last six years:

With only Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and (possibly) Ryan Vogelsong ($6.5 million team option) guaranteed to come back in 2014, the Giants have some obvious needs in the starting-pitching department.

Maybe they’re hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. After all, it’s not like any other pitcher on the market is guaranteed to make a difference in 2014.

Verdict

So, did the Giants overpay? Absolutely.

They could have just made him a qualifying offer and dealt with him for one more year (if he signed the offer). If he performed well, then they could have worked out another deal covering 2015 and beyond. But there’s no guarantee Lincecum would have accepted that qualifying offer, either.

However, the fact remains that this market is one of the weakest in recent memory and the available players stand to benefit. With such a weak market, subpar pitchers are going to get more money from the teams that are desperate to fill a void.

The Giants signed a familiar face at a price they were comfortable with. 

At least they have a fairly good idea what they’re getting in Lincecum, whereas they wouldn’t know exactly what to expect if they were to go after someone like Nolasco.

In the end, it’s all about what suits the franchise best, and Lincecum is a known commodity whom the Giants believe will offer a return on investment through 2015.

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Once considered to be the best starting pitcher in all of Major League Baseball, the past two seasons haven’t been kind to Tim Lincecum.

But that didn’t stop the San Francisco Giants from signing “The Freak” to a two-year contract extension: 

CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman provides some further details about the contract:

Alex Pavlovic of the Mercury News added:

The 29-year-old is coming off a 2013 campaign in which he posted a 10-14 record with a 4.37 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 197.2 innings, striking out 193 batters.

Lincecum had one of the most dominant four-year runs in recent memory from 2008 through 2011, as he was named to the All-Star team in each of those seasons and won the National League Cy Young Award in both 2008 and 2009.   

Those Cy Young seasons were particularly impressive, as Lincecum went a combined 33-12 with an ERA just over 2.50. He also struck out more than 260 batters in each of those seasons, a number which isn’t seen very often these days.

Though Lincecum wasn’t quite as unhittable in the following two years, he was still the Giants’ ace, and he played a huge role in the team’s success.

Lincecum struggled at times during the 2010 season. He ended the year with a 3.43 ERA, but he was lights out during the playoffs. With a 4-1 record and 43 strikeouts in five starts, he helped the Giants win their first World Series as an organization since 1954, and their first ever since moving out West.

“The Franchise” carried that momentum into the following season, when he lowered his ERA to 2.74 and seemed to be back on top of his game. Ever since the 2011 season, though, Lincecum has struggled mightily with his consistency. He was especially bad in 2012, when he went 10-15 with a 5.18 ERA during the regular season. With that said, he found his groove once again in the playoffs.

Manager Bruce Bochy dropped Lincecum from the starting rotation, but he was excellent out of the bullpen. He pitched 4.2 innings of scoreless relief in the World Series against the Detroit Tigers as the Giants won their second World Series in three years.

Lincecum was inserted back into the starting rotation this year, but he resembled the Lincecum fans saw during the 2012 regular season more so than the 2012 playoff version. That comes with one significant exception, as Lincecum hurled his first career no-hitter on July 13 against the San Diego Padres. He walked four batters and struck out 13 on 148 pitches in a start that seemed to signal that he was officially back.

Despite that, Lincecum did not have his finest year and the Giants finished 16 games out of first place in the National League West. 

With that said, Lincecum is definitely a guy who is worth gambling on. He showed in the playoffs how dominant he can be, and he has shown many times in the past that he is capable of anchoring a pitching staff.

There will now be a great deal of intrigue regarding how Lincecum will be used. He could continue to start, but as he showed during the playoffs last year, he can also be a major weapon out of the bullpen.

Whatever the case, the Giants believe in Lincecum, and are gambling on his return to form from earlier in the decade. 

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter

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With less than a month to go in the regular season, free agents-to-be are running out of time to leave a lasting impression on potential suitors. Some of the bigger names, including Robinson Cano, have remained near the top of the free-agent market with steady performance while several others have risen and fallen from month-to-month. 

Players who have disappointed up to this point can still boost their stock by having a big month in September. On the flip side, those who have been terrific for most of the season could see their value fall substantially with a poor finish. 

Here are 10 players who have gone in all different directions throughout the season, but find themselves in a similar position with a few weeks to go. Their value could rise or fall significantly based on their end-of-season performance.

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After putting up a 5.18 ERA in 2012—the worst ERA in the National League among qualified starters—Tim Lincecum ended May of this year with a 5.12 ERA.

He allowed six runs over four innings on May 29 against the Oakland A’s. Two poor months to open the season after a disastrous spring training performance (10.57 ERA) seemed to make it clear that Lincecum’s days as a dominant starting pitcher were over.

Lincecum had won back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2008-09. He went 33-12 with a 2.55 ERA and 526 strikeouts over 452.1 innings during that stretch.

In August of 2010, Lincecum’s reign of dominance appeared to come to end. He went 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA that month.

However, he bounced back with a 1.94 ERA in September before delivering a 14-strikeout, two-hit masterpiece in Game 1 of the National League Division Series. He also threw eight innings of one-run ball in the clinching game of the World Series. Overall, he went 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA during the 2010 postseason to help the Giants win their first World Series since moving to San Francisco in 1958.

Lincecum would go on to post a 2.74 ERA in 2011. He wasn’t quite as good in 2010-11 as he had been in 2008-09, but he was still a clear-cut No. 1 starter.

That was before it all came crashing down last season. Lincecum lost his spot in the postseason rotation, returned to the rotation in the National League Championship Series for one poor start, and then was banished back to the bullpen.

His postseason relief work was exceptional, however. He struck out 17 against only two walks over 13 innings. He gave up just three hits and one run as a reliever. He saved the season with a brilliant performance out of the bullpen in a Game 4 win during the NLDS when he threw 4.2 innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts to stave off elimination.

Thus, when Lincecum struggled as a starter to open 2013, it appeared that his career could only get back on track with a move to the bullpen. A team source told Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area in early June that the Giants would move Lincecum back to the bullpen “in a heartbeat,” if they had another starter available.

The Giants never did find another starter, and Lincecum stayed in the rotation. He put up a 3.60 ERA in June, and then delivered a no-hitter with 13 strikeouts on July 13. He was roughed up in his next start after throwing 148 pitches in the no-hitter, but he’s recovered to allow only three runs in 22 innings during this last three starts.

Lincecum has chopped his ERA all the way down to 4.18 over the last two-plus months. He has the 11th-best strikeout rate in the game among qualified starters this season. His 3.49 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching—an ERA estimator based on strikeout, walk and home run rates) ranks 37th.

Lincecum has posted a 3.38 ERA since the beginning of June. If you remove his poor start after the no-hitter, his ERA drops to 2.57 during that stretch (h/t Alex Pavlovic, San Jose Mercury News).

Lincecum has spent his whole career proving the doubters wrong, and he’s doing it again this season. When he first came up to the big leagues, he was an undersized, two-pitch guy. He then developed a wipe-out changeup to compliment his mid-90s fastball and curveball to become the best pitcher on the planet during his two Cy Young seasons.

After his disastrous August in 2010, he added a slider to his arsenal to get back on track. This season, he’s started to throw his curveball more often. He’s also improved his preparation, and accepted that his once-blazing fastball isn’t coming back.

Baggarly wrote of Lincecum on Monday:

Lincecum always threw hard and everything came easy. Now he’s throwing easier, and he’s not having as hard a time.

‘He’s within himself and that’s what’s been giving us the hope,’ [pitching coach Dave] Righetti said. ‘Now you want the results and he’s gotten those, too. The results are catching up to what he’s doing out there. You see him righting himself.’ 

You don’t see him joking around the hours before his starts any longer. He’s going over video, spending more time with catcher Buster Posey, plotting and planning for the hitters he’ll be facing. He’s still capable of improvisation on the mound. But now he can play a complex arrangement, too.

In a lost season for the Giants, Lincecum has been found. It’s not surprising that he’s figured out a way to resurrect his career given his outstanding track record. It’s just a bit of a shock that he’s done it in the rotation, and not with a move to the bullpen—which looked inevitable in late May.

The Giants even considered moving Lincecum to the bullpen (full disclosure: I wrote that he should be moved to the bullpen earlier this year). After Lincecum’s no-hitter and seven other quality starts in his last 12 games, it’s clear that he belongs in the rotation.

The lesson in all this is to stop doubting Tim Lincecum. He’s been defying the odds since his freshman year at the University of Washington almost a decade ago. No matter what happens, he always finds the next pitch to add to his arsenal—the next adjustment.

He probably won’t win another Cy Young Award, but it now seems likely that he’ll be an above-average starting pitcher going forward. The Giants now have to hope that the impending free agent will decide to continue his career in San Francisco.

All statistics in this article are courtesy of ESPN and Baseball-Reference.

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There are several teams on the cusp of falling out of playoff contention, which is always fun as it opens up the potential for even more trade rumors.

Seven teams—the Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox—are currently more than 10 games back of a playoff spot, a very tough spot from which to bounce back. More could join them soon in the land of non-contenders. 

Teams like the Blue Jays (43-45, lost nine of last 14), Giants (40-48, lost 12 of their last 14), Padres (40-50, 10 consecutive losses), Rockies (43-47, lost 14 of their last 20) and Royals (42-44, lost 34 of their last 59) will need to make a decision of whether they are buyers or sellers in the next few weeks. If they play any worse than they have lately, veteran players from those teams could be shopped to contenders before the trade deadline.

Here are seven of the more interesting names that could be part of your daily Hot Stove news in the near future.

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The baseball gods can be cruel, but they’ve got nothing on Father Time.

That crotchety old you-know-what rarely allows for ballplayers to age like fine wines, and he’s particularly unfair to pitchers. One day a pitcher will be fine and the next—BAM!—he’ll be over the hill. No more velocity, no more stuff, no more guile, no more nothing.

There are a few hurlers around the league who can vouch, notably four guys who ply their trade in Boston, Toronto, Washington D.C and San Francisco.  

Or, at least, myself and B/R Pop Culture Lead Writer Gabe Zaldivar will vouch for them, as they made the cut for our chit-chat about pitchers who just aren’t what they used to be. As they usually are, our ramblings were caught on video.

Leave your comments below if you have any, and you’re also welcome to give Gabe and I a follow on Twitter.

Follow Zachary: @zachrymer

Follow Gabe: @gabezal

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The San Francisco Giants pitching staff is officially being put on notice—step up your game.

Pablo Sandoval has gone on the disabled list, reports Mercury News, meaning there’s a hole in the middle of the lineup.

While guys like Hunter Pence and Buster Posey are still in the middle of the lineup, it’s time for the pitchers to stop depending on the offense to score a lot of runs. It’s time for them to live up to their hype.

In 2013, they’ve been anything but what we saw in 2012.

The Stats

The starting rotation ranks 25th with 26 quality starts, with only 21 of 33 wins coming from the rotation. And that’s not the only problem. They are 24th in ERA (4.75), have no complete games or shutouts, and have walked 132 batters.

The offense has given them 4.3 runs of support per game, yet they still struggle to finish the job.

In fact, it’s been the relief corps who has gotten the job done with a 2.83 ERA, which ranks second in baseball.

The supposed ace, Matt Cain, is 4-3 with a 5.09 ERA and 75 strikeouts. Only seven of his 13 starts have been quality, and that’s the highest number for a Giants pitcher.

Then there’s Tim Lincecum, who has fallen off the map the last two years. Lincecum is currently 4-5 with a 4.75 ERA and 74 strikeouts. Only four of his 12 starts have been quality.

Should I continue?

The best of the bunch has been Madison Bumgarner with a record of 5-4, a 3.58 ERA and 79 strikeouts.

Then there’s Ryan Vogelsong, who has been good for the Giants over the last two years. He only has one quality start to his credit and has a 7.09 ERA.

It’s not pretty for the Giants rotation.

What’s Gone

With the loss of Sandoval, the Giants lose a guy who has been key in the No. 3 hole and one who has been clutch with runners in scoring position.

When runners are on second or third, Sandoval is batting .377 with three home runs and 30 RBI. With two outs, he’s destroying pitches even more with a .500 average.

Needless to say, the Giants are losing a lot with Sandoval out of the lineup.

San Francisco has lost seven of its last 12, giving up almost six runs a game in each of those losses. In the five wins, the Giants have scored 27 runs, while only giving up 12.

Seeds of Greatness

Seeds of greatness are there, but it needs to be more consistent.

The starters can’t depend on the offense to get them out of jams.

There’s a reason why the Giants gave Cain an eight-year, $139.75-million contract before the 2012 season.

He needs to start pitching like the team’s ace. He needs to pitch like he did in 2012, when he showed he was worth the money.

As far as Lincecum, he’s in a contract year. That should be enough motivation.

And if Zito wants to get even a decent contract next year, he has to improve as well.

There’s a lot in this rotation, and they’ve proven it before. But it’s just not showing this year.

Hopefully, the pitching staff gets woken up by a good bat being on the disabled list. They need to stop depending on the offense and start pitching like the all-stars they are.

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Most teams are paying their big-name starting pitchers a fortune to provide 200 innings this season. But for a few of those pitchers, their performance is crippling teams that hope to contend, and that brings their job security into question.

Some of these pitchers have long track records that afford them a longer leash. They may not lose their jobs based on a bad first month, but if the struggles continue into June, teams may begin looking for alternatives.

Some of these pitchers will turn it around and finish just fine, but others will either be demoted, traded or pushed to the bullpen.

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A team paying a pitcher $5 million for 180-200 innings gets more value for their money than one paying the same amount for 70 innings. So it stands to reason that so many teams are insisting pitchers stay in the rotation as long as their performance is tenable.

Unfortunately, this means many teams miss out on potential dominance from those pitchers over shorter stretches. For some, this is due to the restraint needed to stretch one’s effectiveness out over 100 pitches. While they may be dominant giving 100 percent, they can only give 80 percent to last that long.

For others, they have only two effective pitches, which is enough for one or two innings, but starters usually need three to turn over a lineup twice. These pitchers would be much better off used in the ‘pen, but of course, the value of raw innings pitched will keep them slaving away in the rotation.

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Tim Lincecum has looked like a different pitcher over his last two starts with Buster Posey behind the plate in place of Hector Sanchez. 

Over his first three starts with Sanchez catching, Lincecum struggled. He allowed 13 hits, 12 runs, 12 walks and three home runs in 16 innings of work. His ERA was 5.63.

In his last two starts against the Padres, Lincecum has suddenly looked like a different pitcher. He’s allowed 10 hits, two runs, five walks and no home runs over 13.2 innings. His ERA with Posey catching him this season is 1.32.

Given that Posey was also the catcher for Lincecum during his phenomenal run as a reliever last postseason, it seems obvious that he should be catching Timmy. Posey is a better defender than Sanchez, and Lincecum needs all the support he can get at this point in his career.

Posey is much more athletic behind the plate than Sanchez. He clearly does a better job of framing the ball to get borderline pitches called strikes for his pitchers.

According to research done by Matt Klaassen, Posey ranked as the fifth-best defensive catcher in baseball last season. Sanchez ranked as the sixth-worst. Thus, the numbers back up what most Giants‘ fans have been observing over the last year-plus.

This looks like an open-and-shut case. Lincecum has looked dominant in the two starts that he’s made this season with Posey catching. He was exceptional pitching to Posey last postseason and terrible in his lone postseason start with Sanchez catching. The advanced numbers and the eye test combine to show that Posey is superior to Sanchez defensively.

Thus, as long as manager Bruce Bochy keeps pairing Lincecum and Posey together, Timmy will continue to pitch well, right? Well, not based on last year’s numbers.

Lincecum’s statistics based on who was catching him last year are not available anywhere that I could find online. Therefore, I had to compile Lincecum‘s numbers from last season throwing to each of the Giants’ three catchers using his game log available at ESPN.

I then looked at each box score to see who the catcher was when Lincecum pitched. Finally, I created a spreadsheet with Lincecum’s numbers throwing to each catcher and totaled up the final results.

Last season, Lincecum threw to Sanchez 16 times, Posey 15 times and Eli Whiteside twice. Surprisingly, my research found that Lincecum had a better record and ERA last year when Sanchez was catching him.

With Sanchez catching, Lincecum went 6-5 with a 4.76 ERA in 90.2 innings pitched. He allowed 85 hits, 50 runs, 48 earned runs, 44 walks and 11 home runs while striking out 84.

With Posey catching, Lincecum went just 3-9 with a 5.48 ERA in 85.1 innings pitched. He allowed 86 hits, 54 runs, 52 earned runs, 41 walks and nine home runs while striking out 92.

With Whiteside behind the plate, Lincecum went 1-1 with a 5.39 ERA over 11.2 innings pitched. He had one fantastic start and one bad one throwing to Whiteside last season.

The good news from last season is that Lincecum’s rate of strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed were slightly better with Posey catching him. Strikeout, walk and home run rates are less dependent on defense and luck than ERA and won-loss record.

Thus, while Lincecum allowed fewer runs per game and won more games with Sanchez catching last year, his core numbers were actually better with Posey catching.

If you prefer traditional stats like wins, losses and ERA, then Lincecum did throw better with Sanchez catching him last year. If you prefer modern, advanced stats like strikeouts per nine innings pitched, then Lincecum actually pitched better with Posey catching despite the sky-high ERA.

Posey has been the catcher when Lincecum has looked at his best so far this season. Posey could be the reason for Lincecum’s improved results over his last two starts. However, given last season’s results, it’s too early to conclude that definitively.

Lincecum could have made a mechanical or mental adjustment that is the reason for his improvement. Or, his results could be completely random and have nothing to do with who the catcher is. Perhaps the Padres lineup just isn’t very good.

Posey should continue to catch Lincecum because he’s a very good defensive catcher and Sanchez is not. Sanchez should honestly be in Fresno working on his game. It’s doing him no good to sit on the bench in San Francisco right now. Playing everyday at Triple-A would help improve his game much more than rotting on the bench.

However, even if Posey continues to catch Lincecum, that doesn’t guarantee Timmy will keep pitching well. For that to happen, Lincecum will have to keep making pitches regardless of who the catcher is.

If Lincecum is going to continue to have a successful season in 2013, it’s going to have more to do with the guy on the mound than the guy behind the plate. Posey can put the right signs down and steal a few extra strikes, but Lincecum will have to continue to show improved command of his arsenal.

After Lincecum’s last two starts, there are reasons to be optimistic about him again. However, it’s not fair to Lincecum to give all the credit to Posey. Lincecum deserves the majority of the credit for his outstanding recent work.

All statistics in this article are courtesy of ESPN.

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