Kuzul

If you look at Tim Lincecum’s stats this year, I’m sure you won’t be impressed.

The former ace is 10-15 with a 5.15 ERA, and he has lost about all of his pitch command. Lincecum hides the ball with his unorthodox delivery, and he used to hit 95 mph on the radar gun. However, his fastball now tops out at just 92 mph, making it much less effective. 

Since his fastball is less effective, his off-speed pitches are, too.

His fastball used to get him ahead of the count and his changeups used to make hitters whiff. His slider had tons of movement, and hitters would be miles off of the pitch. But now, those pitches aren’t as effective, due to the lack of speed on his fastball.

Plus, he hasn’t been locating his fastball, and hitters are pouncing on off-speed pitches left in the zone. But the real problem is that his pitches haven’t been in the zone a lot. More often than not, Lincecum is missing the strike zone.

Could this be due to fatigue? Maybe. When Lincecum was in his Cy Young years, he exceeded 100 pitches nearly every game. Bochy often let him exceed 120, and he threw 138 in a game once (the most ever was 149 by Edwin Jackson).

However, it didn’t really catch up to him in 2010 or 2011. He struggled in August 2010, but he dominated in September and October. He was 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA in the postseason, which is something Bochy must consider when assembling the playoff rotation. Then, he posted a 2.74 ERA in 2011, despite somehow having a losing record.

If it’s not fatigue, it could be a lack of proper preparation. It’s taken Lincecum tons of time to get settled in, and he has a 7.88 first-inning ERA this year.

I can relate to this issue. I’ve seen him pitch twice (at AT&T Park) this year, and he allowed two earned runs in the first inning both times. He didn’t pitch into the sixth in either game, and he lost both.

One of those games was on Tuesday night against Arizona. He never found his rhythm on the mound, and he couldn’t locate any pitches. He only threw 77 on the night, despite being well rested. He threw only 39 of them for strikes, and he gave up seven earned runs and a three-run home run. However, he had looked great before that.

Unfortunately, he didn‘t look great against the D-Backs. Lincecum pitched scared and didn’t attack the zone. He pitched scared to Paul Goldschmidt, but he missed his target by so much that it was right in Goldschmidt’s wheelhouse. He crushed it down the line for a three-run homer, sealing Lincecum’s 15th loss. Then, Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong went out and picked up wins.

Before that, his command was back and his confidence was back. It was perfect timing, and if Lincecum had mowed down a mediocre D-Backs lineup, he would’ve locked up a spot in the playoff rotation. But, thanks to command problems, inaccuracy and those first innings, he didn‘t.

His first-inning issues are something Bochy must also take into consideration when assembling the rotation. All five starters will be on the playoff roster, and one of them will be used in long relief. Even though long relief means pitching a few innings, you definitely pitch more when starting a game. Pitching less will hurt Lincecum, since he won’t have time to settle in. He’ll have to be incredibly sharp from the get-go.

Lincecum will face a weak Padres offense on Sunday as he hopes to seal a playoff rotation spot in a huge ballpark. Vogelsong dominated the Padres twice, although it’s fair to say he’s received some lucky breaks in those starts. Plus, Vogelsong doesn’t possess the playoff experience and success owned by Lincecum.

Bochy has confidence in Lincecum, and the real Lincecum will stand up in the playoffs. Vogelsong will crumble under the pressure, when he won’t be facing the Padres, but rather the Reds or Nationals.

But it’s safe to say Lincecum will attack and prepare well for the start, and that he won’t be walking guys. He’s shown the ability to command his pitches at times, and I think he can if he bounces back from his horrible start against the D-Backs.

However, a number of things have to go right. He can’t let opponents hit .265 off of his change-up, he can’t issue free passes and he can’t struggle again in the first inning.

It’s happened before, but not against the Nationals. He has struggled at times against decent offenses, but he has also gobbled up the Rockies, Phillies, Mets and Dodgers.

Can he revert to his old form? Yes. Will he? That’s a question that his performance will answer, but for now, the answer is yes.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The San Francisco Giants have been known for their pitching for a long time. But this year, the staff has regressed a bit.

All five pitchers have gone through rough patches this year, some longer than others. Even Matt Cain, he of the perfect game, 15-5 record and 2.86 ERA, has had his struggles. Madison Bumgarner has too, and Tim Lincecum has had a rough year overall.

However, despite all of that, the Giants are still 10 games ahead of the second-place Dodgers in the NL West and 25 games over .500. And, their pitching rotation is still dangerous. But what would make it more dangerous?

Arranging the postseason rotation the right way.

Here is my blueprint for what the Giants’ playoff rotation should look like.

Begin Slideshow

The reasons for the sudden decline and fall of Tim Lincecum are plentiful.

He scrapped his slider during spring training to save some wear and tear on his elbow, only to begin throwing it again shortly after the season started.

However, even though he’s been using the slider, it hasn’t been as effective this season. Righties are hitting .283/.352/.478 off of Lincecum this year, and the slider is the primary pitch that he attacks them with.

After bulking up last year to maintain velocity on his fastball, he shed a lot of weight swimming in the offseason, which could explain the drop in velocity.

Pitchers that lose fastball velocity can afford to do so as long as they also decrease speed in their changeup to keep the difference between the two pitches close to 10 miles per hour. Alas, Lincecum’s changeup hasn’t lost velocity, and there is only a seven MPH difference between his average fastball and changeup now.

He also battled some blister and finger nail issues earlier this season, which prevented him from throwing in between starts for a period of time.

Additionally, he’s had a hard time out of the stretch this year. Lincecum has a .268/.369/.430 line out of the stretch, and that balloons to .282/.402/.468 with runners in scoring position.

His command has also been an issue as his walk rate has shot up to 10.3 percent this season from a career low of 7.5 percent in 2009, when he won his second Cy Young Award. The command issues have led to a lot of hittable pitches in the middle of the strike zone.

From a scouting standpoint, it appears to me that Lincecum is late in getting his arm out in front when his left leg plants, which is causing him to miss at the belt or above. Lincecum needs to drive the fastball down below the belt to set up his off-speed pitches, but he has not been able to do that consistently this season.

Whatever explanation you want to use for Lincecum having the fifth worst ERA and the second worst quality start percentage in all of baseball this season, he’ll be a free agent after next year. The Giants are currently on the hook to pay him $22 million next year to see if he can rediscover his old form.

Here are four possible options that the Giants have with Lincecum as he approaches free agency.

Begin Slideshow

June 13 was a perfect night for Matt Cain and the San Francisco Giants.

Cain tossed the first perfect game in team history, retiring all 27 Houston Astros hitters in order and striking out 14 of them. Giants fans went ballistic when first baseman Brandon Belt caught the final out, and it marked yet another special moment in Giants history.

However, there haven’t been any special moments for Cain since the perfect game.

When Cain threw his perfect game, he was viewed by just about everyone as the ace of the Giants’ pitching staff. Tim Lincecum was struggling, and Cain, who had never received much attention, suddenly was the recipient of lots of attention.

And he’s still been getting lots of attention. However, it hasn’t been good attention.

Since throwing the 22nd perfect game in league history, Cain has struggled. He hasn’t pitched into the ninth inning or shut out the opponent in his last eight starts, and he is just 2-2 in those starts (1-2 in his last seven starts). In his last seven starts, the Giants are 2-5.

Cain only allowed two earned runs in five innings Wednesday against the Mets, but those stats don’t show how he performed. Gregor Blanco saved a run with a spectacular catch in the fourth inning, and Cain got away with some mistakes when runners were on base.

In the start before that, Cain shut down the Dodgers for 4.2 innings. Then, he started to make some mistakes. He left pitches over the plate consistently, and the Dodgers scored two runs in the fifth and one run in the sixth. Cain wasn’t charged with a loss, but he deserved one (the Giants eventually lost in extra innings).

Even though he still has decent numbers (Cain is 10-4 with a 2.82 ERA), Giants fans have a reason to be concerned. Cain has always been known for his consistency, and while he has been somewhat consistent since his perfecto, Giants fans haven’t seen the dominant performance we’ve been looking for from Cain (after the perfect game).

Cain doesn’t let many runners on base (he has a team-leading 1.00 WHIP), but he has struggled to pitch out of jams. He did a good job getting out of jams against the Mets on Tuesday, but in other previous starts, he struggled with that.

When Tim Lincecum was struggling mightily in the first half, Cain dominated to make up for Lincecum’s struggles. However, Lincecum has done well since the All-Star break, and Cain has been the one struggling.

Luckily, the rest of the pitching staff has picked him up nicely.

Ryan Vogelsong led the league in ERA before his start Friday night against the Rockies. Vogelsong doesn’t lead the league anymore, but he still does boast a 2.38 ERA and a 9-5 record. His streak of 16 consecutive quality starts ended against the Rockies (he allowed four earned runs in 6.1 innings pitched), but he continued his streak of 21 starts with six-plus innings pitched.

Vogelsong has a true feel-good story and better statistics than Cain, yet people still think of Cain as the team’s ace. Vogelsong knows how to force weak contact, get out of jams and pitch under pressure, which is why he’s been so good. Cain has struggled to do some of that, and he’s made more mistakes than Vogelsong.

Right now, Vogelsong is the team’s ace. Cain is still a good pitcher, but fans should be worried about him. Usually, I’m ecstatic when Cain starts, because I know he will turn in a good performance. However, I don’t have that feeling right now.

He has shown signs of anger and frustration after bad innings and seems to have lost his confidence. Lincecum’s struggles were much worse, but Cain’s have been similar. His next start will be against the Cardinals, who have scored the second-most runs in baseball. That definitely won’t help his confidence.

It may take a little while before we see the dominant performance we’ve been looking for. Cain has been missing his spots, and opponents have been taking advantage of his struggles. If Cain can deliver against the Cardinals, I wouldn’t be worried anymore.

However, if his recent struggles continue, it could spell doom for the Giants down the stretch.   

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Giants open up a six-game road trip with a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves tonight, followed by a three-game series in Philadelphia over the weekend. 

The trip will mark the last time the Giants head to the East Coast this year, at least in the regular season. With Atlanta currently leading the wild-card race and 2.5 games back in the NL East, the matchup could be a preview of a postseason series in October. 

After getting pummeled in their last road trip to Washington and Pittsburgh, the Giants know they must come out and prove they can play well away from San Francisco. 

With some glaring issues that are often magnified on the road, the Giants will need to prove they can overcome these deficiencies if they are going to win the NL West.

Begin Slideshow

Tim Lincecum is sporting a 3-10 record and a 6.42 ERA going into his first start after the All-Star break.

Something has to change, and it has to change now. Of the 18 games that Lincecum has started, the Giants have only won four. Substitute in a mediocre pitcher who wins maybe half of those 18 games, and the Giants would be 52-35 and have a solid couple-game lead in the NL West.

These numbers are shocking and not something you would expect from a two-time Cy Young Award winner who is still only 28 years old.

They are horrendous, terrible, awful—I mean, you pick the adjective and it fits Lincecum’s wretched numbers and performance. There is no place for someone who is doing so badly on one of the best pitching rotations. Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain and Ryan Vogelsong are some of the best pitchers in baseball. Each one is a top-five pitcher in a major pitching statistical category (wins, ERA, strikeouts and/or WHIP).

But Lincecum is in a perfect position to rebound off of his two previous starts in which he couldn’t finish four innings and gave up 14 runs combined. Timmy will be in front of a home crowd that will be praying that he can figure it out.

And the Houston Astros have the fewest wins in the National League and not a hitter batting over .300. Four of the five Astros starting pitchers with over 60 innings pitched have ERAs over 4.50.

If “The Freak” can’t get it turned around now, there is no reason to expect he will figure it out anytime soon. Sadly, it isn’t all that perplexing that the former Giants ace is doing so terribly; throwing 93-95 MPH consistently for a couple years with his wiry frame just cannot physically hold up.

The guy is not even six feet tall, and he weighs a mere 160 pounds.

If Lincecum doesn’t figure it out, the Giants need to trade him. He is due $22 million next year and may not be worth $1 million. It may not be the popular decision considering what Lincecum has done for the Giants, but it makes financial and baseball sense.

That is, of course, assuming he doesn’t rebound. If he rebounds, these trade talks will dissipate into the summer night.

Let’s see if Lincecum can pull it together starting tonight.

Read more of my baseball, basketball and Bay Area sports writing on the popular website, Bases and Baskets.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Even though Tim Lincecum has been nothing short of terrible for the San Francisco Giants, the team is poised for a second-half run.

Granted, the Giants are 4-12 when the two-time Cy Young Award winner pitches, making their one-and-a-half-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers that much more impressive.

After struggling mightily over the first two and a half months, Lincecum has pitched better of late, including an impressive seven-inning start against the Dodgers where he gave up four hits and no runs—not bad considering the Dodgers were without Matt Kemp.

Still, Lincecum has a ways to go before he is “back,” but a second-half transformation looks promising.

Here are seven predictions for Lincecum as the Giants try to make another run at a World Series title. 

Begin Slideshow

It seems as if every time The Freak takes the mound this year, the Giants community spends the following several days desperately trying to figure out what the hell happened.

The way it has generally been understood, Lincecum’s starts have featured a Dr. Jekyll-and-Mr. Hyde-style dichotomy that always ends in that destructive psychopath, Mr. Hyde, taking over and ruining any chance of a win the team ever had.

Before people were even in their seats, there were relievers warming up in the bullpen before Timmy got the first out. It looked as if this was the culmination of a season-long implosion that would surely see The Franchise removed from the rotation, a scenario previously thought impossible.

But then, just as quickly as his implosions usually start, that same Timmy that we all know and love showed up and saved the day by striking out the side with the bases loaded.

And he never looked back.

Still, here we are and once again we’re trying to figure out what the hell happened. How is there such a clear distinction between the two Timmys that are of course the same person?

What controls this on/off style switch that seems to separate the former Cy Young winner with this Jonathan Sanchez-esque impostor? Well as we try to do every week, let’s try to figure it out, only this time with undertones of justifiable optimism.

What we see here (click on the link if you want to see a bigger version of the brooksbaseball.net graph) is Lincecum’s night as a whole, and it’s easily apparent that this was the sharpest version of Tim Lincecum we’ve seen in some time.

Outside of those wild first-inning fastballs, we can see that he was keeping the ball down and to the left side of plate, which is right where he wants to be.

Location-wise, the biggest thing to take away was the lack of balls just laying down the middle in the top of the zone, i.e. the crushables. So far this season, Lincecum’s biggest problems has been his location mistakes in the zone, leading to an excessively high line-drive percentage of 25.5 percent, which ranks as third-worst in the game among starters.

We can see from the graph that although he did throw some pitches up, most of them were either high enough to get swing-throughs and easy fly balls or pop-ups, or stayed to the sides enough that guys weren’t getting good contact on them.

In fact we can see that there’s only one super-hittable pitch, that light blue (which of course denotes a ball hit in play, but failing to cause an out) pitch down the middle that was the RBI single up the middle from Jemile Weeks.

That pitch was the best-handled pitch Oakland got against Lincecum all game (grounders up the middle tend to be the only ground balls that are actually well hit, handled and timed).

We can see that the other hits were all on really good locations and it’s no coincidence that these hits were merely ground balls that happened to be hit to Ryan Theriot.

Well that below-the-zone hit was that “soft line drive” (gameday’s classification) hit by Josh Reddick, Oakland’s far-and-away best hitter, but that was just good hitting combined with the fact that Nate Schierholtz was playing pretty far back, anticipating the power that Reddick later put on display.

Anyway this was his start as a whole, so let’s take a look at just his first inning so we can see where the problems lie.

Well that (again click if you want to see a bigger version of the graph) was definitely not as bad as expected.

So there were some huge misses up out of the zone, some pretty big ones to the left and some in the dirt ones down and to the left, but outside of those seven huge misses, he was pretty good location-wise.

Here’s the link for which pitches those were so you can see that he left one change a little higher than preferred, but outside of that kept the off-speed stuff down and kept the fastball to the sides for the most part, namely the left side.

Looking back on the inning, this makes a lot of sense as despite the runs, the A’s never really hit the ball that hard. We talked about the contact in the last slide, but for the most part it wasn’t really the problem as those balls would go for outs about half the time (again with the exception of that down-the-middle Jemile Weeks hit).

This marks a distinctive change from Lincecum’s usual implosions, as normally hitters are crushing his pitches left and right. Here it was just the clean nowhere-near-the-zone misses that were the cause of his struggles.

Indeed, over the start as a whole he only let up two line drives and two fly balls, both of which  were easy outs (one was even caught by first baseman Brandon Belt). Compare that to 10 groundouts and eight strikeouts, and it’s easy to see that this was not the same pitcher who has been getting torched all season.

Looking at the batted ball data from his game log (courtesy fangraphs.com), we can see that this is very distinct from his previous outings as he has allowed at least 10 combined fly balls and line drives in his previous five starts.

Looking at the graph of his previous start in Seattle (from brooksbaseball.net), we can see that there’s a pretty big difference in terms of pitch location as he threw just as many pitches in the upper part of the zone as the lower, which is just not sustainable when you throw in the low 90s.

If Lincecum can continue what he started in Oakland and even improve on those big misses he suffered earlier, Giants fans can get back to doing what they do best, and that’s blaming Barry Zito.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

I’m sure like all San Francisco Giants fans, watching the first inning of last night’s 5-4 win over the Oakland Athletics was both excruciating and exhilarating.  

By the time the second batter for the A’s, Jemile Weeks, had finished his at bat, Oakland already had a 1-0 lead. It got worse.

After Weeks’ RBI single, Josh Reddick singled, and Yoenis Cespedes walked to load the bases. Seth Smith reached on one of the strangest fielder’s choices you’ll ever see, as both Brandon Belt and Hector Sanchez contributed to the A’s second run with misplays. 

Then, Lincecum walked in the third run of the inning, and there were still no outs. Already, the Giants had bullpen activity. 

For those of us who have witnessed Tim Lincecum‘s previous 14 starts, the fear was that this would be the worst one of all. All of a sudden, visions of an eight-run inning couldn’t be denied. 

Then something amazing happened. Instead of completely falling apart, like he has so many times this year, Lincecum pulled it together. 

Brandon Moss struck out swinging. So did Kurt Suzuki. Ditto for Cliff Pennington. 

So, instead of a huge crooked number that would have virtually put the Giants out of the game in the first inning, Lincecum held the line at three runs. 

Then, he retired the side in the second with just a walk. In the third, Timmy had a rare (for him this season) 1-2-3 inning with two K’s. In all, Lincecum followed up that rocky first by retiring 15 of the next 17 batters before leaving at the end of the sixth. He struck out eight. He didn’t allow a hit after the first. 

Getting out of that first inning jam, as rare as it was for Lincecum in 2012, may have been a turning point for the Giants’ struggling ace. He looked very much like the Big Time Timmy Jim of old the rest of the way. The fact the Giants came back in the ninth to win the game had to boost his confidence as well. The Giants hadn’t won a Lincecum start since April 28! 

Since early in the season, my suspicion has been that the issue with Lincecum is between his ears. Yes, an injury was and still is a possibility, but the Giants don’t believe that to be the case. In fact, they’ve been adamant about that. They’ve been equally firm that they didn’t want to pull him from the rotation or send him to the minors. 

Although I suggested a minor league stint, possibly missing a start or two and even an MRI, none of that has happened. Funny enough, Tim’s dad went public, blasting people like me for having these thoughts.

But, I think that most others like myself have been primarily concerned about getting him right, which is why we made these suggestions. Plus, Tim’s ragged performance has hurt the team. Keep in mind, when Lincecum doesn’t pitch, the Giants have the best record in baseball. 

In all of the above cases, I hope the Giants and Lincecum prove me wrong. 

Last night was a huge step forward. 

Timmy still looks to be a bit uncomfortable pitching from the stretch position, and he didn’t have to do it too much last night. Keep in mind that those strikeouts in the first inning came from the windup. 

The next test comes Wednesday afternoon at AT&T Park when the Los Angeles Dodgers make their first trip to San Francisco this season.  

But, for the first time in a long time, we can truly say that Tim Lincecum has taken a big step in the right direction. Let’s just hope it continues.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Ryan Cook has been almost lights out for the A’s this season. Tonight was not one of those nights. The San Francisco Giants overcame a 3-1 deficit with four in the ninth to beat Oakland 5-4 and take the opener of the Bay Bridge series in Oakland. Cook took the loss, while Giants reliever Clay Hensley got credit for the win. Former A’s reliever Santiago Casilla allowed Josh Reddick’s 16th home run in the ninth, but picked up his 20th save.

A’s starter Jarrod Parker went six-plus innings, allowing only a single run on four hits and two walks while striking out four. Struggling Giants starter Tim Lincecum actually resembled his former dominant self after the first inning, going six innings and allowing three runs on only three hits. Lincecum struck out eight. But he did walk four batters, as his control remained elusive.

After Parker went 1-2-3 in the first, the A’s immediately struck against Lincecum. Coco Crisp led off with an infield single. He then promptly stole second and third base and scored on Jemile Weeks’ single to center field. Josh Reddick then snapped his 0-for-19 slump with a bloop single that landed just in front of Nate Schierholtz. A walk to Yoenis Cespedes loaded the bases.

Then Seth Smith hit a grounder to Giants first baseman Brandon Belt. 

Belt, instead of tagging first base for the force out, stepped over the bag and threw home, where Weeks slid home to beat the tag of backup catcher Hector Sanchez. Brandon Inge followed with a bases-loaded walk to force home the third run of the inning. To Lincecum’s credit, he stopped the bleeding, striking out Brandon Moss, Kurt Suzuki and Cliff Pennington in order to keep the score 3-0. 

The Giants scored their run in the top of the third when, after a leadoff single by Sanchez, Parker threw a wild pitch to advance him to second. Gregor Blanco then singled to right field for the RBI, making it 3-1.

But Parker would allow nothing else, and the bullpen effort of Jerry Blevins and Grant Balfour was splendid. Cook just could not shut the door. Belt’s two run double and RBI singles by Sanchez and Blanco put the victory in the Giants’ win column.

Good: Jarrod Parker. He definitely deserved to win. Unfortunately for him, it was one of those deals where the closer just didn’t have it. But Parker was solid. He threw six-plus innings and did enough to exit with a 3-1 lead. He kept the Giants guessing with his fastball and changeup and continues to impress at home.

Bad: A’s 7-8-9 hitters. You can’t completely scapegoat the bottom of the lineup, but they do deserve some criticism. It’s is not really the overall performance (1-for-10 with five strikeouts), but the lack of production in the first inning, when the A’s could have ended the game right away. With the bases loaded and no outs, Moss could not put the ball in play. Needing only a sacrifice fly, Suzuki could not put the ball in play. And the last chance to produce, Pennington, struck out meekly. The A’s gave the Giants an opening and they took it.

Ugly: Ryan Cook. It was bound to happen. Most closers have a bad appearance or two in the course of a season. Cook’s was definitely tonight. His control was off from the beginning and walks—a season-long issue—were his undoing tonight. In total, he was charged with four earned runs. That is double the two he had allowed entering the game. This was a disheartening loss for the A’s, who appeared well on their way to getting the opener against their Bay Area arch rivals. 

Looking to bounce back from this tough loss, the A’s will send Tyson Ross against Madison Bumgarner on Saturday, with first pitch scheduled for 4:15 p.m.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com