Kuzul

The general consensus is that the Philadelphia Phillies have the best rotation in the National League.

Though that may be the case, their division rival also has a great rotation.

Coming off of the team’s first postseason berth since 2005, the Atlanta Braves look to challenge the Philadelphia Phillies for the NL East crown behind one of the league’s best rotations.

Though teams like the Giants and Brewers have gotten more recognition this offseason, the Braves pitching staff as a whole is better.

Here are 10 reasons why the Braves rotation is one of the league’s best.

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Rumors rumors everywhere.  Where will Cliff Lee land?  The Yankees, duh.

It seems every off season that pitching is the biggest issue for those teams looking to make a big splash in free agency.

The Atlanta Braves are looking at a 2011 season that very much like 2010 will include much depth at starting pitching.  Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, Jorge de la Rosa, Javier Vazquez, and Chris Young are just a few names that come quite popular upon the signing of Cliff Lee if and when Brian Cashman signs him to come to the Bronx.

The biggest need of the offseason was fulfilled with the trade for Dan Uggla on November 16, 2010.  His right-handed power will bring a much needed boost to the Atlanta Braves offense.

It is safe to say, I don’t see the Braves shopping for any above average starting pitching this offseason.  If anything, the Braves could consider adding a veteran arm to their bullpen.

Let’s take a quick peek at what the Braves have to look forward to in 2011 when it comes to starting pitching.

1.) Tim Hudson (Prediction: 210 IP, 18-9, 2.95 ERA, 135 Ks)

What can you say about Tim Hudson in 2010?  17-9 with an ERA of 2.83.  He does walk a batter from time to time but he held hitters to a .229 BAA last season.

What was the most significant part of 2010 for “Huddy”?  228.2 IP.  Not bad for a guy that just came back from major surgery the season before.  You could certainly make a case that Tim Hudson is as good as ever right now and that his only season better than 2010 was when he pitched for the A’s back in 2003.  He may very well be in the Cy Young race yet again in 2011.

2.) Tommy Hanson (Prediction: 215 IP, 15-10, 3.10 ERA, 200 Ks)

2011 will very much be a breakout season for the young Tommy Hanson.  Next season Tommy Hanson will be listed first and Hudson second.

Hanson has a knack for getting in trouble and blowing up, but he has also pitched his way out of trouble several times.  This is typical for a young star.  I don’t think he will compete for the Cy Young just yet in 2011, but in 2012 he will be running the show against the big boys.

2010 showed that Hanson has good control when he is on his game.  His K to BB ratio was right around 3:1.  With a little more run support, I think Hanson would have been able to log a few more innings this season and get very close to 200 Ks.

3.) Derek Lowe (Prediction: 190 IP, 15-12, 4.10 ERA, 125 Ks)

If Derek had only been as dominant all years as he was in the month of September he would have been an easy pick for the Cy Young.  In the final month of the season Lowe went 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA.  With a little run support in the playoffs, Lowe could have pitched the Braves to a NLCS if he had just had a little more run support from an injury plagued lineup.

I think Lowe has reached his peak, but feel he will give the Braves one more good season.  His 2010 numbers aren’t out of reach, but I’ll suggest he will be slightly above average and more consistent this season.

4.) Jair Jurrjens (Prediction: 185 IP, 14-10, 3.80 ERA, 140 Ks)

If I were a betting man (which I’m not) I would suggest J.J. will be more similar to his 2008 and 2009 self in 2011.  Between his injuries (June through August) JJ carried a 6-1 record with a 3.75 ERA in 12 starts.  By September, Jurrjens was already beginning to feel the effects of his injuries.  I feel like this section of the season more clearly portrays what a healthy Jair Jurrjens will pitch like in 2011.  One day, Jair will be one of the most recognized pitchers in the league alongside Tommy Hanson.

5.) Mike Minor (Prediction: 165 IP, 9-13, 4.80 ERA, 155 Ks)

Mike Minor will be the man until Kris Medlen comes back from injury.  If Minor pitches well enough, Medlen upon his return could be used as a valuable bullpen arm in August or September of 2011.  Brandon Beachy may give Minor a run for his money in spring training, but the former Vanderbilt stand-out was drafted to be a Braves pitcher for several years to come.  My prediction will be based on a full season.  This is subject to change depending on what Fredi Gonzalez does with Medlen when he returns.

Aside from the five starters above, others will likely see some time in the rotation with a spot-start here and there.  Brandon Beachy as mentioned will give Minor some competition but will likely be used as a long reliever or a spot starter.  If he isn’t traded, Kenshin Kawakami may see some time on the big club if he can regain some form at AA early in the season.

What I believe most fans hope for is a late season return by Kris Medlen.  Medlen was a great benefit to the team last season and would be an excellent late season addition to what is expected to be a competitive Braves squad in 2011.

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Game 1 of the NLDS between the Atlanta Braves and the San Francisco Giants set up to be a tight one. We headed into this series thinking that pitching would reign supreme and offense would be something of a luxury for either team. Needless to say, Game 1 certainly met expectations.

Derek Lowe pitched arguably his best game of the year only to be outdone by his paper-thin counterpart in Tim Lincecum. Lincecum had, as they say, “Roy Halladay stuff” on Thursday night and he was almost as unhittable. 

Timmy went the distance, striking out 14 and allowing just three runners to reach base. Lincecum’s dominance comes as no surprise given the level at which he has been pitching lately. Combine that with a slumping Braves lineup and you get nine innings of near perfection.

The lone run came as a result of a blown call on a steal at second base on what turned out to be a busted hit-and-run attempt as Pat Burrell swung and missed on a 3-2 pitch. Posey later scored on a two-out base hit by recently acquired Cody Ross. 

The first game went off without much surprise, but Game 2 sets up to be an interesting one. The Giants will be starting their other young ace Matt Cain. Cain nearly sent the Giants into a one game playoff with the San Diego Padres for the division after a poor outing on the second to last day of the season.

He will match up against Atlanta’s young right-hander Tommy Hanson, who is making his postseason debut—but then again who isn’t in this series?

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MLB’s second season gets underway Wednesday. 

While the Yankees, Twins and Phillies have been postseason mainstays recently, the Giants, Rangers and Reds are back for the first time in years; the Braves are making their first appearance since 2005 and the Rays are looking to complete some unfinished business from 2008.

Every October provides a chance for young guys and traveled veterans that spent their careers with historically poor teams to get a shot at MLB’s postseason for the first time.  Some can’t handle the pressure of the sport’s biggest spotlight, while others step up to new heights.

Young guys like Andruw Jones (1996), Derek Jeter (1996), K-Rod (2002), Josh Beckett (2003), Bobby Jenks (2005), Adam Wainwright (2006) and BJ Upton (2008) instantly made a name for themselves with breakout postseason performances in their first trips.

Meanwhile, veterans like Scott Brosius (1998), Carlos Beltran (2004) and Matt Holliday (2007) paved the way for big payouts by making breakout first impressions in October.

The following slideshow will include my 15 candidates for breakout performers in their first appearance in the postseason.  These are in no particular order.  Leave a comment if you disagree with my choices or think I missed someone.

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Roy Halladay is the presumptive favorite for National League Cy Young after leading the Philadelphia Phillies to an NL East title. But what about his candidacy for the MVP award?

Baseball pundits generally disqualify starting pitchers from MVP consideration because they only play in a fifth of the games. While this is true, it doesn’t mean that some pitchers aren’t just as valuable as the game’s best hitters.

MVP’s are typically offensive players, but there have been several pitchers to win the award. The last was Dennis Eckersley in 1992, a season in which the righty recorded 51 saves. The last NL pitcher to win the award was Bob Gibson way back in 1968. So can Halladay become the first pitcher in almost two decades to take home the award?

Let’s examine his case.

First, the numbers.

In 2010, Halladay is 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He has thrown 250.2 innings and struck out 219. He has nine complete games, four shutouts and a perfect game. His ERA+ is 166 and his WAR is 6.9.

He’s only made 33 starts so he’s averaging 7.6 innings per start. In other words he’s doing the jobs of both a No. 2 starter and a primary set-up man, at the same time.

To illustrate this let’s try to deconstruct Halladay’s stats using two players for comparison instead of just one. Here are two Atlanta Braves pitchers whose combined numbers closely resemble Halladay’s.

Tommy Hanson: 10-11, 3.33 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 202.1 IP, 182 H, 75 ER, 14 HR, 53 BB, 173 SO

Takashi Saito: 2-3, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 54.0 IP, 41 H, 17 ER, 4 HR, 17 BB, 69 SO

Now, if we combine them, we get Tommy Saito. Let’s compare this fictional pitcher to Halladay

Tommy Saito: 12-14, 3.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 256.1 IP, 223 H, 92 ER, 18 HR, 70 BB, 242 SO

Roy Halladay: 21-10, 2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 250.2 IP, 231 H, 68 ER, 24 HR, 30 BB, 219 SO

Tommy Saito registers a combine ERA+ of 157 to Halladay’s 166, and a WAR of 3.2 to Halladay’s 6.9.

Halladay generally has better numbers than this pitcher, but not by a significant margin. So the question becomes how actually valuable Halladay is to his team?

If both Hanson and Saito were taken off the Braves roster, it is more than likely that Atlanta would struggle to maintain a winning record let alone challenge for a playoff spot. If Halladay suffered an injury that kept him out for the entirety of the 2010 season, where would Philadelphia be now? That’s a question Phillies fans hope they never have to answer.

Of course the fact that Halladay alone does what it takes two good players to do is a testament in itself of his value. His 6.9 WAR trails only Joey Votto (7.3), Albert Pujols (7.3), and Ryan Zimmerman (7.1) in the National League. 

He may not be the MVP this year, but he doesn’t belong very far behind the company of Votto, Pujols and Carlos Gonzalez. Give Doc his due and put him on the ballot. 

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On getaway day, the Braves concluded their first post All-Star break homestand with an 8-0 shutout of the San Diego Padres at Turner Field. With Tim Hudson leading the way on the mound, and Alex Gonzalez’s four-hit day leading an offense that had six different players drive in runs—this was the epitome of a Braves quality win.

Atlanta currently owns a 7.0 game lead in the NL East, with an NL-best 56-39 record, as both Philadelphia and New York look up at the Braves with identical 49-46 records.

With the Braves about to embark on their second nine-plus game road trip of the season, let’s examine the upcoming road stretch, as well as the remaining schedule in the second half.

The Braves upcoming road trip will not log as many miles as the Arizona-Los Angeles-Minnesota trip in June that ended with four-game splits out west, and winning two of three at Target Field.

Currently the Braves are 34-13 in 47 home games (34 games remaining), and 22-26 in 48 road games (33 games remaining).

JULY 23-25 @ FLORIDA

While the Marlins are playing some good baseball right now, the Braves will be fortunate to miss their two best starters—Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco.

Friday, July 23 : Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39 ERA) hasn’t faced the Marlins yet this season, and will be opposed by Alex Sanabia (1-1, 2.12 ERA). Lowe hasn’t fared well against the Marlins in the past, going 1-2 with an ERA of 5.71 in six starts since the beginning of 2007.

Sanabia, he of the two career starts and 19 major league innings under his belt, has a good ERA, but his other statistics aren’t quite as impressive. He’s never made it out of the sixth inning and gives up his fair share of baserunners. The Braves have been hit or miss with pitchers they’ve seen for the first time.

Saturday, July 24: Kris Medlen (6-2, 3.31 ERA) returns to his slot in the rotation to face off against Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 3.62 ERA). This will be the third time the Braves have faced Sanchez, who is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA against Atlanta this year. Sanchez has struggled in July, with an ERA over 6.00.

Medlen won his only start against Florida, giving up one run in 6.1 innings on July 1. Medlen’s only two losses came as a reliever. However, as a starter, he’s 6-0, and the Braves have only lost one of his 11 starts.

Sunday, July 25 : Jair Jurrjens (3-3, 4.25 ERA) pitches the finale Sunday afternoon against Chris Volstad (4-8, 4.78). Jurrjens has been fantastic in his four starts since returning from the DL (3-0, 2.21 ERA) and carries a 3-1 career record against the Fish in six starts. Volstad hasn’t had a great year, and carries a 1-2 record in four starts against the Braves since the beginning of 2007 into the Sunday matinee.

Prediction: The Braves have won two of three in both previous series with the Marlins this season—and it should continue. If Lowe pitches well on Friday, or the Braves can jump on the rookie, Jurrjens might have a chance to sweep the Fish away. Best bet for a victory is Jurrjens in the finale.

JULY 27-29 @ WASHINGTON

Tuesday, July 27 : I wouldn’t be surprised to see MLB Network pick up this game matching Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12 ERA) and Stephen Strasburg (5-2, 2.32 ERA).

Hanson’s owns a 3-0 career against the Nationals, and would be even better if the bullpen hadn’t blown a win for him last year. He beat Washington in early May in his only start against them this year.

Strasburg pitched well against the Braves but wound up on the losing end of a 5-0 shutout on June 28. I know this is nitpicking, but the stud rookie has come down to earth and has averaged less than 6.0 IP per start since June 23.

If both pitchers are on, we could see a lot of hitters blown away on both sides by high 90s fastballs and wicked breaking balls.

Wednesday, July 28 : Tim Hudson (10-5, 2.47 ERA) hopes to follow his scoreless outing against the Padres and out-duel Livan Hernandez (7-6, 3.12 ERA). Hernandez beat the Braves when the two teams played in May, but has a 6.29 ERA against Atlanta over the previous three seasons.

Hudson was the winner on June 28, pitching seven shutout innings to beat Strasburg and the Nats. He got a no decision against Washington in a 3-2 loss in early May, giving up two runs in seven innings. He’s been a Nat killer, going 8-0 with an ERA of about 1.50 since the beginning of 2007.

Thursday, July 29:   Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39 ERA) pitches the finale in Washington facing Craig Stammen (2-4, 5.50 ERA). These two faced off at Turner Field three weeks ago, as the Nationals beat Lowe and the Braves 7-2.

This month, Stammen has generally struggled, going 0-2 with an ERA over 7.00. Lowe is 4-5 against the Nats since the beginning of 2007, with a respectable 3.76 ERA.

Prediction: The Braves lost two out of three at Nationals Park in early May, and won two of three at Turner Field in late June. The way the Braves and Nats are playing now are more like they were in late June, rather than early May, when the Braves weren’t hitting, and the Nats were playing quite well. Chalk up another two out of three to make it a 4-2 record so far on the road trip. Best bet – Hudson dominates Washington, and should continue to do so on Wednesday.

JULY 30 – AUGUST 1 @ CINCINNATI

Friday, July 30 : Kris Medlen (6-2, 3.19 ERA) faces ace Johnny Cueto (9-2, 3.39 ERA) to open the series in the Queen City. 

Cueto is 1-0 in two career starts against the Braves, with the Reds winning close games both times, beating Atlanta in 2008, and getting a no-decision in a 4-2 win at Turner Field in September 2009. 

Saturday, July 31 : The trade deadline comes and goes as Jair Jurrjens hopes to continue his successful string of starts since being activated to take on Mike Leake (7-1, 3.45 ERA).

Leake got a no-decision in the game the Braves made the 9th inning comeback. He allowed three runs (one earned) in six innings before giving way to a bullpen that eventually imploded.

Jurrjens has had some bad luck against the Reds in the past. He struggles against them in 2008, but left with the lead before the Braves bullpen gave up the lead and eventually the win. In his two 2009 starts against the Reds, he took the losses both times. One game he left down 1-0 after 2.0 innings because of a rain delay, and the other, was a 3-1 loss in September, where he tossed seven solid innings, but got no run support.

Sunday, August 1 : Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12 ERA) hopes to make up for his last start against the Reds as he closes out the series and the road trip to face Bronson Arroyo (10-5, 4.25 ERA) in the finale.

At the outset, this has all the making of a Reds blowout win, but Hanson was sick that day, pitched horribly, and the Braves still won on Brooks Conrad’s pinch-hit, walk-off grand slam. In his other career start against the Reds, Hanson pitched six innings of three-hit shutout baseball to earn the win.

Arroyo seems to be either Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde when facing the Braves. Since he joined the Reds before the 2006 season, Arroyo is 3-3 in seven starts against Atlanta, with a 7.48 ERA.

In his three wins, Arroyo is 3-0, with a 1.39 ERA in 19.1 IP.

In the other four starts, Arroyo is 0-3 with a 14.29 ERA in 17.0 IP.

Prediction: The Braves showed the late inning magic in sweeping a two-game set from the Reds in May. The Reds have struggled some lately. Hanson shakes off his last start against the Reds, and Jurrjens finally gets the best of Cincinnati as the Braves take two out of three. Best bet is the Braves getting to Arroyo early on Sunday, to finish a nine-game road trip with a 6-3 record, and returning home twenty games over .500 at 62-42.

AFTER THE ROAD TRIP. . .

Remaining Road Schedule

The Braves will return home from Cincinnati to host the Mets and Giants. The Braves have four road trips remaining (24 games) and they break down as follows

August:

Three games: Three @ Houston (3-0 at Turner Field)

Six games: Three @ Chicago Cubs (2-1 at Turner Field)
                Three @ Colorado (2-1 at Turner Field)

September :

Six games: Three @ Florida (4-2 this season)
               Three @ Pittsburgh (5-1 this season)

Nine games: Three @ NY Mets (3-5 this season, 1-4 at Citi Field)
                 Three @ Philadelphia (7-5 this season, 3-3 at Citizens Bank Park)
                 Three @ Washington (3-3 this season, 1-2 at Nationals Park)

Analysis:

The Braves have a combined 10-2 record against the NL central teams they still have to face on the road this year. With the Cubs in turmoil, and Houston and Pittsburgh being the doormats of the division, I don’t expect much of a change.

Citi Field has not been the Braves’ friend this year, but two of those losses the Braves gave away during their nine-game losing streak in April. They’ve played the Mets better since. Philly could be shutting it down if they’re too far out, or they could have recharged with a healthy Chase Utley, Jamie Moyer, Placido Polanco, and perhaps a starting pitcher addition.

The best series to watch for on the road would be at Colorado in mid-August, and at Philadelphia in mid-September.

Prediction: Braves win 13 or 14 out of their final 24 road games. Their final road record would be 41-40 give or take a game.

Remaining Home Schedule

Starting with the series against the Mets in early August the Braves play 34 of their final 58 games at home, where they’ve won at a .723 clip – the best in the majors this season.

August:

Seven games: Three vs NY Mets (1-1 at Turner Field, 3-5 overall)
                    Four vs San Francisco (1-2 at AT&T Park in April)

Seven games: Four vs LA Dodgers (2-2 at Dodgers Stadium)
                   Three vs Washington (2-1 at Turner Field, 3-3 overall)

Seven games: Three vs Florida (2-1 at Turner Field, 4-2 overall)
                    Four vs NY Mets

September:

Seven games: Four vs St. Louis (0-4 at Busch Stadium in April)
                    Three vs Washington

Six games: Three vs Florida
               Three vs Philadelphia (4-2 at Turner Field, 7-5 overall)

Analysis:

The Braves home schedule is tougher than their road schedule the rest of the season, just from a team record standpoint. They’ve played the Mets, Phillies, and Giants much better at home than on the road in the recent past and that will likely continue. However, the Braves’ final home series vs Philadelphia may not matter too much, as it’s the last weekend of the season.

The Mets aren’t a good road team, and have showed it lately by going 1-6 on a west coast road trip to Arizona and San Francisco, and should be 0-7 if Phil Cuzzi doesn’t miss the call at home on Sunday. I expect the Braves I see the Braves winning 5 of the 7 remaining home game with the Mets, and four of the six remaining with both Florida and Washington.

Depending on the pitching match-ups, a split might not be a bad thing against the Cardinals, especially if Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia and (maybe Oswalt) pitch in that series. The Dodgers are a better home team and the Braves winning 3 in that series is not out of the question. In past years, the series between the Giants and Braves have generally favored the home team, regardless of their records.

Prediction: The Braves win 22 or 23 of their final 34 home games. Their final home record will be 56-25, give or take a game.

Adding it up. The Braves are on pace to finish with a record of 97-65, their best since the 2003 season when they won 100 games for the second straight year. That should give them at least one home-field series as they return to the playoffs for the first time since 2005.

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In the 2009-2010 season, Tommy Hanson looked to be the ace that Braves fans had desperately hoped he would be. With an 11-4 record and a miniscule 2.89 ERA, the flamethrowing young pitcher gave hope to the fan base that so desperately wanted another young stud in their rotation.

His sophomore season, as a result of the high standards that were created by his first year, has to be viewed as somewhat of a disappointment thus far. At least on the outside it must be.

Let’s dig a little bit deeper.

In this current season, Hanson’s strikeout rate is 9.14 per nine innings, the eighth best rate in the entire Major Leagues among qualified starters.

Conversely, his walk rate is a tiny 2.93 per nine innings.

Last year, Hanson’s strikeout rate was 8.18 per nine innings and his walk rate was 3.24. So he has improved a good deal in both of those ever-so-important categories.

This is a great sign for any young pitcher.

The third of the “three true results” is the home run. Hanson so far has stuck with the trend of improving each of these categories and has dropped his home run rate per nine innings from 0.70 to 0.67 this season.

As a result of these three statistics, Hanson’s FIP is down from last season’s mark of 3.50, quite a good number, to 3.34, an even more stellar one.

So the question remains: why is Hanson’s ERA so much worse this season than last?

Well, last season Hanson was the beneficiary of Lady Luck, and this season she has bitten him.

Now, for those of you who don’t understand BABIP and LOB%, please glance over my article titled “The Impending Tim Hudson Implosion: An Example of Luck in Baseball.”

In 2010, Hanson has been absolutely killed by the unluckiness of balls not finding the Atlanta Braves’ defenders’ gloves. This has led to a ridiculously high .349 BABIP, the third highest in the Major Leagues behind Francisco Liriano and Dan Haren. This number simply has to come down.

Additionally, Hanson’s LOB% has been 70.8 percent so far, and that number is below average. Not by too much, but still below average.

As these numbers normalize, so too will Hanson’s ERA and thus his perception around the fan communities.

Unfortunately, the media has made ERA the ultimate measure of a pitcher’s performance instead of a more accurate measure like FIP. As the season wears on and Hanson has better luck, his ERA will start to become more like his FIP.

ZIPS (a baseball stat predictor based on performance up to date in a season) projects Hanson to have a 3.08 ERA in the second half of the season and finish with a 3.72 ERA, which would still be quite a bit higher than his projected end of the season 3.16 FIP.

Hanson is an ace despite what the more mainstream stats show.

Soon everyone will begin to realize that as he pushes the Braves towards a playoff berth.

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The Braves, who settled for a series split against the Milwaukee Brewers this weekend, learned much about thier team in the process.

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Hello, class. If you remember, last week we talked about the basics of Sabermetric principles and how they look at stats differently than most people and value lesser used stats over more traditionally viewed numbers like ERA and batting average.

The point of Sabermetrics is to identify trends and predict the future. One of the major stats in an expert’s psychic arsenal is Fielder Independent Pitching, or FIP for short. FIP aims to evaluate a pitcher’s true performance by eliminating all outside factors to calculate a pitcher’s ERA with an average BaBIP, defensive support, and strand rate.

So, if a player is posting an unusually low ERA, check his FIP. If it’s a run higher than his ERA, you should deal them soon before they blow up. If your starter is getting blown lately, a lower FIP would mean good times are on the horizon.

Let’s compare two pitchers who struggled recently: Ted Lilly and Tommy Hanson . Both pitchers had consecutive games of nine and five earned runs each. A good owner will go check the peripherals to see what the problem is, checking FIP first.

Knowledge is power, so keep reading .

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Originally posted at The Bravesologist

Lineup: 

The Braves lineup is markedly better than most projected to start the season. Certain players have stepped their game up tremendously. The offense has prospered despite a lack of production from others. Baseball is an odd sport. Some years players produce numbers far better than expected while others perform poorly and seemed destined to be non-tendered. Here is the report card for the lineup.

Martin Prado: A

.325 AVG, .367 OBP, .484 SLG, .851 OPS, 10 HR, 25 2B, 2 3B, 16.8 bRAA, 115 wOBA+

Martin has had an unbelievable first half this season and has been one of thebiggest keys to the Braves great first half. Prado’s ability to get hit after hit and put himself into scoring position over 35 times has ignited this offense. What’s funny about it all is that Prado has really just done what he has always done. His wOBA+ for the past three years is 112, 115, and 112, right along pace with his current 115 mark.

Jason Heyward: A-

.251 AVG, .366 OBP, .455 SLG, .821 OPS, 11 HR, 13 2B, 3 3B, 16.7 bRAA, 120 wOBA+

Before Jason’s thumb injury he was a legitimate MVP candidate. His OPS was near the top of the league and his memorable late inning hits were crucial as the Braves moved up in the standings. His plate patience has been incredible, walking 42 times in just 303 plate appearances. He has an isoOBP over .100 and an isoSLG over .200. I fully expect Heyward to bounce back to form once he returns from the DL.

Troy Glaus: B+

.254 AVG, .361 OBP, .441 SLG, .802 OPS, 14 HR, 13 2B, 12.1 bRAA, 112 wOBA+

Glaus has been the power right-handed bat that many were hoping to get in trade this offseason. With Javier Vazquez or Derek Lowe being expendable, a big right-handed left fielder or first basemen seemed attainable. The Braves ended up trading Vazquez for Melky Cabrera and prospects, but the Glaus signing has turned into one of the best value picks of the offseason across the Majors. He has had some big clutch hits including a game-tying home run against the Philadelphia Phillies and a walk-off home run against the Kansas City Royals. Glaus has stayed relatively healthy as well, which was one of the big questions heading into the season.

Brian McCann: B

.267 AVG, .380 OBP, .447 SLG, .827 OPS, 10 HR, 16 2B, 10.9 bRAA, 113 wOBA+

Brian has had better seasons in the past, but he has increased his patience and is continuing to be one of the top hitting catchers in all of baseball. He is only 15 walks away from surpassing his career high as he has 42 already this season. McCann and Glaus have made for a great cleanup platoon and have been fortunate to have guys like Prado, Heyward, and Chipper Jones getting on base regularly in front of them.

Chipper Jones: C+

.252 AVG, .378 OBP, .393 SLG, .771 OPS, 6 HR, 16 2B, 4.8 bRAA, 106 wOBA+

Chipper has had an odd couple of months at the plate. The first two months he was getting on base at a very high rate but not hitting for much power. Over the past month and a half, Chipper has had a lower on base but is hitting more doubles and homers. He could definitely be performing better, but at his age I believe this is what you can expect out of him.

Melky Cabrera: D

.259 AVG, .316 OBP, .348 SLG, 3 HR, 13 2B, 1 3B, -4.0 bRAA, 95 wOBA+

Melky hasn’t been very productive this season at all. He has had some spurts of success, including a go-ahead home run against the New York Mets last weekend, but for the most part he has struggled. He’s on pace for a similar amount of plate appearances as last year and his numbers are down across the board. He’s played close to every day due to his ability to switch hit and play all three outfield spots but he will likely see his role reduced again when Heyward returns.

Yunel Escobar: F

.238 AVG, .334 OBP, .284 SLG, .618 OPS, 0 HR, 12 2B, -8.9 bRAA, 90 wOBA+

Yunel has seen a dramatic decrease in his production this season and has been close to worthless offensively. He has walked a good amount, as usual, and has kept his strikeouts down, but he has hit for close to no power and his on base has suffered due to a low batting average. He has put himself into scoring position just 17 times and he is staring at a career low fly ball percentage.

Nate McLouth: F

.176 AVG, .295 OBP, .282 SLG, .577 OPS, 3 HR, 9 2B, -9.2 wOBA, 84 wOBA+

Much like Escobar, McLouth has done nothing offensively this year when many expected him to improve. He was better than average last year with the Braves despite popular belief, but he has done nothing offensively aside from one walk-off win this year. The concussion he received against the Diamondbacks was unfortunate, but time off may have been the best thing for him at the time. Hopefully he can return to being at least a decent center fielder when he comes off the DL.

Overall Grade: B+

The reason for the grade is the expectancy. Currently, the Braves are sixth in runs in the NL but many believed pre-season that limited offensive production would be their downfall. Prado, Heyward, and Glaus have been incredible and McCann has done his job, which has made for a very formidable top of the lineup. The improved plate discipline across the lineup is one of the biggest reasons for this team being in first place.

Rotation:

The Braves rotation has been a reason for their success midway through the season. Having five reliable starters is an asset that many teams overlook. The majority of teams slot their starters one through five and have top heavy rotations, but the Braves have done it differently the past two years.

The performances of the starters have taken pressure off of the bullpen and bats. Here are the first half grades for the six starting pitchers.

Tommy Hanson: A-

102.3 IP, 104 K, 34 BB, 3.35 FIP, 16.9 kS%, 12.4 pRAA, 123 tRA+

Tommy is the ace of this staff and has thrown the ball better than he did last season. His strikeouts and walks are actually up while his ERA and WHIP have suffered. The raise in those two almost meaningless statistics is due to his BABIP being the highest in the NL and second highest in the majors at .349. There is really no doubt that Tommy is the best pitcher on this staff — please don’t let the publicized stats make you think differently.

Tim Hudson: B

121.1 IP, 61 K, 43 BB, 4.32 FIP, 11.0 kS%, 5.9 pRAA, 110 tRA+

Hudson has been fortunate on batted balls, posting the lowest BABIP in the NL at .232. He hasn’t pitched nearly as well as his publicized numbers would have you suggest. The defense has played well behind him and he has been able to be successful despite having lower strikeout and higher walk totals than he is used to. His ground ball skills may be a reason for his low BABIP, but even if you factor that in, it’s not enough to explain it being such an absurdly low number. Hudson will either regress or pitch better in the second half to keep his numbers down.

Kris Medlen: B-

68.2 IP, 47 K, 13 BB, 4.38 FIP, 14.9 kS%, -4.4 pRAA, 87 tRA+

Medlen hasn’t been as great as a starter as many would believe, but he has still been pretty solid. Despite his overall numbers as a starter, he has posted a 3.83 xFIP and a 3.78 xFIP in June and July respectively. His overall FIP as a starter is pretty high due to his mark being 5.40 this month, but when you normalize the home run to fly ball ratio you can see he is actually pitching better than the aforementioned numbers would suggest. He doesn’t walk many batters and if he can continue to pound the strike zone he will have success.

Kenshin Kawakami: C

82.1 IP, 57 K, 28 BB, 4.29 FIP, 11.3 kS%, -3.8 pRAA, 91 tRA+

Kenshin was removed from the rotation, but he has had a similar season to Derek Lowe. Lowe’s perception as a consistent innings eater combined with his lofty contract and name factor are why Kawakami was moved to the bullpen and Lowe was never even an option. Kenshin hasn’t been great, he’s been below average, but he has posted a 4.35 xFIP in May and June. He’s better than his face stats suggest.

Derek Lowe: C

113.2 IP, 70 K, 44 BB, 4.24 FIP, 12.1 kS%, -4.7 pRAA, 92 tRA+

Lowe is not worthy of his contract, but as a back-end starter he is successful. He throws a ton of innings and keeps the team in ball games. It’s certainly better than the Kyle Davies of the world that the Braves have dealt with in previous seasons. As I mentioned in the introduction, the Braves have five starters who are solid and Lowe, despite his poor performance since joining the Braves, is no different.

Jair Jurrjens: D+

35.0 IP, 25 K, 16 BB, 4.71 FIP, 15.2 kS%, -1.8 pRAA, 90 tRA+

Jair’s injury kept him out for a majority of the year but when he has pitched he hasn’t been very good. It seems as though his leg injury may have been a product of his spring arm injury and that he was never fully healthy when he was pitching in the beginning of the season. It’s a reasonable argument and he has pitched well in the first two starts since returning. Regardless, he hasn’t helped the team as was expected. You can’t blame him for the injuries, but the injuries hurt his production and overall numbers.

Overall Grade: B

The rotation for the most part has been strong. It hasn’t been the dominant force it was last year, mostly due to Jurrjen’s injury and the loss of Javier Vazquez. Medlen’s and Jurrjen’s stats are a smaller sample size and they should improve. Medlen’s numbers as a reliever would suggest that he is better than his line currently states. Look for the rotation to continue to succeed. More specifically, look for Tommy Hanson to have a great second half.

You can find more from Ben at The Bravesologist, Talking Chop, Roto Experts, or on his twitter @Ben_Duronio

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