Kuzul

The recent rash of perfect games and no hitters has many people scratching their heads. Some are calling it the “Year of the Pitcher,” while others think it’s due to the eradication of steroids in the sport.

But for all the analyzing and debating, everyone seems to be forgetting one thing: sports are notoriously unpredictable, and can be more random than a clueless crossword puzzle. I mean, who could have predicted three major players all going down on thumb injuries within the same short time span (four if you count the recently returning Aramis Ramirez)?

While we still haven’t invented a reliable injury-predicting machine (looking at you, scientists), we do have stats at our disposal that can help us figure out (or at least get a ballpark estimate) of a player’s future production.

These two stats basically work by separating luck from a player’s actual skill. BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is a major one for pitchers and hitters which tells us how many balls are dropping for hits.

.300 is the traditional average, so anything way above that number for hitters or way below that number for pitchers means they are getting favorable plays on balls hit into the field. As BABIP regresses towards the median, it almost always results in a drop in production.

FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) is pretty self-explanatory, but more important for pitchers than BABIP. It tells us how much help a pitcher is getting from his defense and how much of his ERA is for real.

ERAs tend to go in the direction of their FIP, and when it’s close you can usually count on them staying steady for a while.

I use those two stats frequently when assessing a player’s future value, so make sure those are two stats you look at first. Here’s some other random numbers I’ve come across recently.

Three

Number of times the Tampa Bay Rays have been no-hit in the past 12 months, most recently by the Diamondbacks’ Edwin Jackson .

I don’t know how one of the best offenses in the league can have this happen to them so frequently. Many people benched Dallas Braden for his Mother’s Day start against the Rays, not the worst idea had he not thrown a perfect game.

Again, this should be regarded merely as a quirky aberration, and you can definitely bank on the Rays’ lineup going forward.

Still, it’s mind boggling to think how this could happen. Did the power go out in their hotel room? Was there a particular meal they ate on the plane? Who was mixing the Kool-Aid that days? We may never know…

.403

June BABIP for emerging ace Tommy Hanson , whose been hit pretty hard lately.

In his last two starts he’s allowed 14 earned runs and been knocked around for 21 hits, only two fewer than he allowed all of April.

But his FIP is a very healthy 3.44, a full run below his ERA, and as we see in his BABIP, he’s definitely in line for a huge rebound and will continue to have a stellar season.

Consider this a minor bump in the road.

Seven

Stolen bases over the past five games for Chone Figgins , including three last Friday.

Even for a stat like steals where many times production comes in bunches, this is a huge number. Anyone who has kept the faith with Figgins won that category last week.

While his batting average and run totals have been a major disappointment this season, he’s still on pace for 40+ stolen bases, and he’s batting an encouraging .276 for June.

A player with a .300 average over the past three seasons doesn’t dip this bad for an entire year.

Keep Reading

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When Braves phenom Tommy Hanson struggled in his last outing, the Braves hoped it was a fluke.  Lasting just 3.2 innings against a middle-of-the-road White Sox team, the Braves figured to see Hanson bouncing back against the Tigers.  They didn’t get their wish.

Hanson, who again lasted just three and two thirds innings and gave up six runs (five of them earned), was chased from his second straight start.  I think Hanson will be thrilled to see interleague play end.

On the other side, Justin Verlander gave up four runs in seven innings to pick up the win and improve to 9-5.  The offense for the Braves has again shown a slow period, collecting just seven hits, while the Tigers banged out 17 hits. 

The interleague test for the Braves went somewhat decently, with a 9-6 interleague record.  But the Braves struggled against the White Sox and Tigers, getting swept by the White Sox and winning the first two against the Tigers before Hanson was roughed up in the third game of the three game series.

The Braves will take on the Washington Nationals (33-43, 12-11 against NL East opponents) tonight at Turner Field.  Rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg (2-1, 1.78 ERA) will go for the Nationals while the Braves send Tim Hudson (7-3, 2.54 ERA) to the hill.

The Braves need to catch fire soon.  The Mets, who are playing excellent baseball, trail the Braves by just a half game.  Just when the Braves need him the most, Jason Heyward will sit out due to his bum thumb, leaving a large hole in the offense in their time of need.  Perhaps the baseball deities will have mercy on a Braves team who hasn’t made the playoffs since 2005 and are hanging on to the lead.  If the Cubs are any indication of their mercies, the Braves may just be out of luck.  However, the Braves seem to find a way to make due in times of trouble.

I figure to see Eric Hinske starting in left, Melky Cabrera in right, and, hopefully, some decent run support out of the Braves.  A lineup with veteran presence, the Braves seem to be quick studies and are adept at hammering a pitcher his second time through the order.  Strasburg has some good stuff, however, and the Braves would be well advised to watch and learn well.

The Braves have a shot at getting back to October glory, but they have to hold off their archnemises, the New York Mets, in order to do so.  So, all you Met haters out there, let’s rally and make the Mets watch the postseason on their big flatscreen TVs.

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All indicators seem to be pointing toward Chipper Jones retiring at the end of the 2010 season, barring some sort of miracle turnaround at the plate.

I’m hoping that he’ll right the ship and somehow manage to salvage the season, but I just don’t see it happening. Though, this is one case where I hope I’m wrong.

It’s too bad, really. The Braves are in first place in the NL East—albeit by the slimmest of margins. Yet, Chipper is in an unfamiliar place.

Yes, he’s still batting third and holding down the fort at third base, but he’s not contributing offensively in the way he’s accustomed to.

Time catches up to everyone (except Barry Bonds, it appears), and there comes a day when the body won’t do what it used to—it doesn’t react as quickly, heal as fast, and the bat doesn’t get through the zone like it once did.

It looks like that day has come for Larry Wayne “Chipper” Jones—now age 38.

He has been the anchor in the three-hole for the Braves for nearly two decades, and he is every bit as important to the team’s past success as Maddux, Glavine, or Smoltz.

He’s a lifetime Brave, and he’s given everything he has to the organization that drafted him 20 years ago.

However, Bobby Cox’s loyalty to the former MVP might prove costly if Jones continues to struggle as he has been since he won the NL batting title in 2008.

In 51 games this season (he’s missed 14 so far), Jones has scored 24 times, driven in 23 runs, and has just four home runs. He’s batting an abysmal .233 and slugging .366 in 172 at-bats—not Chipper-like numbers.

Jones met with Cox and Braves GM Frank Wren to discuss his future with the team. He was supposed to hold a press conference at which he was expected to announce his plans to retire at the end of the season, but he canceled it.

That doesn’t mean he’s not retiring; it just means he’s not ready to announce it to the world, and I’m okay with that.

Will he call it quits after this season? If I had to guess, I’d say yes.

In the meantime, I hope that he can find his stroke and help the Braves make it back to the postseason—something he’s gone on record saying he wants to do before he retires.

The Braves will move on just as all teams do, and the future looks bright with young guys like Martin Prado, Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Omar Infante, Johnny Venters, and Brooks Conrad.

However, it will be a bit surreal to see the Braves take the field for the first time without No. 10 at the hot corner and batting third.

On a more positive note, Chipper had two hits in five at-bats including career home run No. 430; he also scored twice and drove in a run in a losing effort to the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday.

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A crazy man once said “Just win, baby.”

It’s short, simple, sweet, and to the point.

It also defines perfectly what any professional team’s mindset should be on a night-in, night-out basis.

But, that simple saying spoken, from the mouth of a deranged lunatic that once called JaMarcus Russell a great quarterback, seems to be just outside of the range of comprehension for the 2010 Atlanta Braves.

Now, don’t take this as a wild rant following a 11-1 shellacking at the hands of the Arizona D-Backs.

It’s not (although that certainly helped to push this out).

This is a product of a month-and-a-half’s worth of frustration and exasperation that this Braves fan has felt and cooped up for far too long.

It has been my understanding that a team is supposed to build on what it has learned.

To rid itself of fundamental lapses that have cost them in the past so as to create a setting both on the field and in their clubhouse conducive to a winning atmosphere.

Apparently, that memo hasn’t reached someone in the Atlanta Braves’ organization.

I mean, how else do you miss a fly ball by 50 feet in outfield when you were once a gold glove recipient?

How else do you look seas in the water following an impressive four-game streak in which your team valiantly overcame deficits when needed in desperate times and flat-out rolled at others?

How else do you find yourselves relying on the same 20-year-old kid in every single pinch?

And how else are you unable to find some sort of motivation during the final season of your skipper’s reign over what used to be the most enviable team in the National League?

For me, it comes down to a few simple things.

No spirit…no fundamentals…no toughness…and no comradery.

(Now, directly at the Braves.)

How do you explain a meteoric rise and fall of what has the potential to be (and has been shown to be) a very dynamic club?

How?

Nothing has frustrated me more than looking like an idiot for supporting various peoples’ causes.

For getting my hopes up.

And for standing up for a team that I called a Wild Card favorite before the season that has amounted to a 17-19 hot mess.

The season’s not done…we still have 126 more games to go through/watch/enjoy/whatever.

If it was a level line of “don’t give a [intercourse],” it’d be one thing.

But the utter lack of enthusiasm and direction following halfway-descent runs is deflating my hopes that I had set to a pretty high level.

I’m sticking by the team ’til the end…I love the Braves too much not to.

But I’m having a harder and harder time adjusting to the turned corners only to meet brick wall after brick wall.

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Earlier this week, I asked a question on my twitter account: “Is there a better young pitcher/hitter combination in baseball than Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward?”

Jordan from OriolesProspects.com, and @oriolesprospects on twitter, responded with Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz. The question and answer sparked both of our interests, so we decided to construct an article in which Jordan would make the argument for his Orioles, and I would make the argument for the Braves.

We both made our arguments a bit differently. Jordan went with an actual rating system whereas I just posted their numbers. You be the judge, comment below and gives us your thoughts or hit us up on twitter and voice your opinion. I’m @Ben_Duronio and Jordan is @oriolesprospects, as previously mentioned

Here is what we both had to say:

Begin Slideshow

That was rough, wasn’t it?

Count the layers of the L-sandwich: W-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-W.

After a stretch of futility of nonagonal proportions (bad geometry joke), the Atlanta Braves scratched out a win (and their first save in 20 games) Friday night in Atlanta as Billy Wagner induced a double-play to Houston clean-up hitter Carlos Lee.

Timely offense, superb pitching, and mostly clean fielding (we’ll forgive J-Hey’s boot in right field) netted the ‘Bravos’ what had so eluded them for over a week.

Well, it was either that or me wearing my Elon University shirt today—the last thing I wore before this horrid stretch started last week against the Phillies.

But, I think I’ll sit pretty with the former…

Doesn’t this just feel great, though?

Even sans Escobar and Jurrjens for a bit, just seeing some excitement out of this line-up (especially from the lead-off spot) is extremely refreshing.

Nate-Dogg energized this lifeless heap of humanity (and a surprisingly sizable Turner Field crowd) with a lead-off blast to left-center and also went on to swipe a bag after a perfectly placed bunt-for-hit.

Throw in 1.5 Jason Heyward home runs (as he was robbed of a near-blast in the eighth by Hunter Pence) to bring his April total to six (about 1/3 of what I predicted for him before the season started—that’s looking pretty bad), and this group showed some of the promise it displayed in the season’s first two home series.

A Tommy Hanson’s eight-inning, 99 pitch, seven strikeout, no walk, (*breath*) two-run performance followed by Billy Wagner’s second save took care of the other end of the game as the Braves added a tally to bring their win total to a whopping (sarcastically) nine.

Now, this was only one game—but it offered a lot to build on.

Sparking the offense on their home turf (provided this keeps up at least a bit) before shipping out for three game sets at Washington, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee should bode well for the National League’s worst team in terms of team batting average.

One win after nine losses is kinda huge—but two or three in a row are needed to really solidify the team’s bot of regained mojo.

But, it takes one in a row to get those multiples.

So, until tomorrow…

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